479:
longitude. As required, this guidance is provided to the NHC four times daily for use in the tropical cyclone package issued by the NHC at 0300 UTC, 0900 UTC, 1500 UTC and 2100 UTC. The WPC participates in the
Hurricane Hotline call with the NHC and other forecast offices and government agencies at 1700 UTC for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean basin west of 60W longitude. Also, points for days 6 and 7 for existing tropical cyclones east of 140W longitude, and days 3–7 to possible future tropical cyclones, are coordinated between the medium range pressures desk and NHC each day at 1700 UTC during the hurricane season. This coordination call began between the Extended Forecast Section and the Miami Hurricane Warning Office prior to 1959.
382:(UKMET), the Meteorological Service of Canada, including ensembles. Coordination with the surface analysis, model diagnostics, quantitative precipitation, winter weather, and tropical forecast desks is performed during the short range forecast process to maintain internal consistency. The short range forecast products include surface pressure patterns, circulation centers and fronts for 6–60 hours, and a depiction of the types and extent of precipitation that are forecast at the valid time of the chart. In addition, discussions are written on each shift and issued with the forecast packages that highlight the meteorological reasoning behind the forecasts and significant weather across the continental United States.
429:
corresponding to the 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC model runs. This narrative consists of three sections: an evaluation of the initialization of the NAM and GFS, a review of model trends and biases, and a description of model differences and preferences. The meteorologist reviews how the suite of models from the latest forecast cycle differ from each other in their forecasts of significant features, and makes a preference based upon all relevant current information.
487:
expected to re-emerge over water as a tropical cyclone, yet the system is still capable of producing flooding type rains. This WPC Public
Advisory will continue to be issued until the flooding rainfall threat is over. The advisory will contain information on how much rainfall has occurred with a particular tropical system, and will also include forecast information on the remnants of the system. This responsibility has been held by the center since 1973.
496:
discussions concerning heavy rainfall events and expected impacts on flash flooding. They are ideally issued 1–6 hours preceding an event, include graphical descriptions of the details and the area covered. Their size typically is about half the size of Kansas. There are three headlines ordered by severity: "flash flooding likely", "flash flooding possible", or "flash flooding unlikely". Mesoscale discussions (MDs) once were issued by the
391:
438:
38:
298:
341:
form to better represent the forecast uncertainty associated with a particular event. The Winter
Weather Desk produces a heavy snow and icing discussion that provides the meteorological reasoning for the 24-hour probabilistic heavy snow and icing guidance graphics. This text message is used by internal and external clients including NWS field offices,
922:
398:
Medium range forecasters are responsible for preparing forecasts for three to seven days into the future. Surface pressure forecasts are issued three times per day, with temperature and probability of precipitation products issued twice per day, using guidance from the NWS medium range forecast model
340:
The Winter
Weather Desk issues probabilistic heavy snow and icing guidance products for the next three days. The forecasts represent the probability that freezing rain or combined snow/sleet accumulations will meet specific criteria within a 24-hour period. These products are issued in probabilistic
465:
features over North
America, primarily north of 31N. The surface analysis is a manual analysis of surface fronts and pressure over North America and adjacent oceans performed every three hours. The analysis utilizes a variety of weather data in addition to observations of surface weather conditions,
322:
One desk of the
National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS) is co-located with the WPC QPF desks, which together form the National Precipitation Prediction Unit (NPPU). NESDIS meteorologists prepare estimates of rainfall and current trends based on satellite data, and this
207:
In 1947, the
Analysis Center was combined with the Air Force Master Analysis Center and the Navy Weather Central to create the Weather Bureau-Air Force-Navy (WBAN) Analysis Center. Their operations commenced on June 16, 1947, at 24th and M Streets NW. By early 1950 the WBAN Analysis Center consisted
474:
The WPC is the official backup center to the
National Hurricane Center (NHC). In this capacity, the WPC is responsible for issuing all tropical cyclone products, including discussions, graphics and watches and warnings that would normally be issued by the NHC for any tropical system in the Atlantic
327:
data, satellite estimates, and NCEP model forecast data as well as current weather observations and WPC analyses, the forecaster has the latest data for use in preparation of short-range precipitation forecasts. Meteorological reasoning discussions are regularly written and issued with the forecast
336:
The WPC Winter
Weather Desk issues heavy snow and icing forecast products, which support the NWS winter weather watch/warning/outlook program. These forecasts are for the contiguous United States (CONUS) and issued from September 15 to May 15 each cold season. Graphical forecasts are issued twice
478:
During the tropical weather season which runs from May 15 – November 30, the WPC has several other routine duties pertaining to tropical weather forecasting. Through 2008, WPC provided track forecast guidance to the NHC whenever there is a tropical cyclone in the
Atlantic Ocean basin west of 60W
508:
The International desks have a variety of responsibilities, primarily the training of foreign visitors in the use of Numerical Weather Prediction products. The International desk routinely hosts visitors from Central and South America and the Caribbean. Visiting meteorologists train, and also
486:
Finally, the WPC surface analysis desk has the responsibility for issuing Public Advisories whenever a tropical cyclone has made landfall in the U.S. or adjacent parts of Mexico, has weakened below tropical storm status (i.e. to a tropical depression or post-tropical cyclone or low) and is not
482:
Within the WPC tropical program, the lead forecaster on shift, who prepares the day 1 QPF, is to provide the rainfall statement for tropical cyclones that are expected to make landfall. This statement is included in the Public Advisory issued by the NHC, and is a forecast of expected rainfall
428:
The purpose of the WPC Model Diagnostic Discussion is to provide objective information and subjective interpretation concerning the current runs of the NCEP short range numerical models. The WPC model diagnostic meteorologist prepares the Model Diagnostic Discussion twice per day in two parts,
495:
Short-term forecasts are made at the meteorological watch (metwatch) desk. It issues mesoscale precipitation discussions (MPDs) as flash flood guidance for NWS forecast offices (NWSFOs), NWS River Forecast Centers (RFCs), the media, emergency managers, and other users. MPDs contain technical
419:
The Alaska medium range discussion, 500 hPa height graphics, and surface fronts and pressures graphics for days 4–8 are issued once per day, year-round. Additionally, gridded guidance for the forecast period is issued for the following fields: maximum/minimum temperature grids, twelve-hour
415:
The Alaska medium range forecasters review the latest deterministic and ensemble model guidance (similar to how the broader medium range forecasts are created) in an effort to compose the most likely forecast for Alaska and surrounding areas valid from four to eight days into the future.
399:(GFS) as well as models from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the United Kingdom's Meteorology Office (UKMET), Canadian model, the Navy NOGAPS model, and ensemble guidance from the GFS, ECMWF, Canadian, and North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS).
402:
The medium range forecast products include surface pressure patterns, circulation centers and fronts, daily maximum and minimum temperatures and anomalies, probability of precipitation in 12-hour increments, total 5-day precipitation accumulation for the next five days, and 500
283:
The mission of the WPC is to provide forecast, guidance, and analysis products and services to support the daily public forecasting activities of the NWS and its customers, and to provide tailored support to other government agencies in emergency and special situations.
407:(mb) height forecasts for days 3–7. In addition, a narrative is issued for each set of forecasts highlighting forecast reasoning and significant weather over the Continental United States. Separate forecasts, similar to the 5-day mean products, are prepared for Hawaii.
318:
forecast offices and are available on the Internet for public use. Heavy snow forecast products, in association with the short-range public forecast products (described below), serve as a coordinating mechanism for the national winter storm watch and warning program.
235:. Research and computer processing abilities increased over the years, which allowed for the first global forecast model to run by June 1966. By January 1975, much of the facility, minus the computers, moved to the World Weather Building, located in nearby
313:
desks prepare and issue forecasts of accumulating (quantitative) precipitation, heavy rain, heavy snow, and highlights areas with the potential for flash flooding, with forecasts valid over the following five days. These products are sent to the
203:
on March 5, 1942. Operations began on March 16, 1942, with the unit collocated with the Weather Bureau Central Office at 24th and M Streets NW in Washington, D.C. Initially the unit was sometimes referred to as the Master Analysis Center.
926:
242:
NMC changed its name to NCEP, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction on October 1, 1995. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center became a subunit of NCEP, as did a number of other national centers such as the
979:
369:
The short range forecasters are responsible for preparing forecasts for the time period of 6 through 60 hours. These products are issued twice daily using guidance from the NWS's Global Forecast System (GFS) and
175:
Long range climatological forecasts are produced by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a branch of the National Weather Service. These include 8–14 day outlooks, monthly outlooks, and seasonal outlooks.
420:
probability of precipitation grids, as well as derived dewpoint temperature, cloud cover, precipitation type, and wind speed/direction grids at a 5 km (3.1 mi) horizontal resolution.
972:
184:
From the early days of organized weather collection in the United States, a central facility was used to gather and disseminate data. Originally, this task occupied a single room within the
199:
While WPC's roots lie deep in the past, the organization can be most directly traced to the formation of the Analysis Center by Circular Letter 39-42, signed by Weather Bureau Director
1065:
965:
160:. They also forecast precipitation amounts for the lower 48 United States for systems expected to impact the country over the next seven days. Advisories are also issued for
375:
1070:
208:
of 150 employees. Medium range forecasting was done nationally to 54 hours in the future. Charts and maps were created at this facility for national distribution.
762:
654:
612:
570:
127:
466:
such as upper air observations, global satellite imagery, Doppler weather radar, and model mass fields to ensure that the product is meteorologically consistent.
730:
988:
342:
224:
119:
509:
generate forecasts for their own national centers, and assist WPC forecasters with QPF related to tropical cyclones in Central America and the Caribbean.
323:
information is used by the Day 1 QPF forecaster to help create individual 6-hourly forecasts that cover the next 12 hours. With access to WSR-88D/
61:
740:
843:
354:
346:
310:
1055:
850:
185:
156:
The Weather Prediction Center issues storm summaries on storm systems bringing significant rainfall and snowfall to portions of the
1024:
358:
268:
371:
337:
daily at 0900 UTC and 2100 UTC (4AM/PM EST respectively), although updates may be warranted by rapidly changing conditions.
271:(SWPC). During August 2012, HPC moved to a new building, the National Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP), in
1009:
248:
879:
671:
626:
584:
542:
523:
219:. This unit co-located with the WBAN analysis center to form the National Weather Analysis Center, which was located in
212:
147:
394:
Forecast of surface pressures five days into the future for the north Pacific, North America, and north Atlantic Ocean.
1060:
232:
500:(SPC) for both convective (MCDs) and precipitation (MPDs) events but WPC now covers this heavy rainfall function.
1014:
1004:
458:
252:
244:
169:
165:
450:
315:
200:
164:
which have moved inland, weakened to tropical depression strength, and are no longer the responsibility of the
123:
1029:
1019:
999:
497:
454:
264:
260:
256:
228:
272:
236:
115:
71:
462:
776:
546:
227:(NMC) in January 1958. When the JNWPU dissolved in 1961, NMC became an independent organization from
900:
150:
143:
17:
868:
756:
675:
630:
588:
220:
957:
736:
648:
606:
564:
518:
189:
161:
854:
847:
211:
In July 1954, the Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit (JNWPU) was created to test out
131:
912:
302:
1049:
712:
442:
324:
157:
139:
390:
931:
831:
797:
777:"NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center becomes the Weather Prediction Center"
461:, and the Honolulu Weather Forecast Office. The WPC focuses on the synoptic and
453:
is part of the NWS Unified Surface Analysis and a collaborative effort with the
350:
437:
37:
726:
379:
193:
361:, and the general meteorological community (private sector and the media).
275:. On March 5, 2013, HPC changed its name to the Weather Prediction Center.
216:
138:(HPC). The Weather Prediction Center serves as a center for quantitative
297:
168:. The Weather Prediction Center also acts as the backup office to the
134:. Until March 5, 2013 the Weather Prediction Center was known as the
952:
939:
961:
903:
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Retrieved on 2008-10-01.
98:
404:
779:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 2013-02-28
713:
A Brief History of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.
901:
WPC's role in providing Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Products.
118:, is one of nine service centers under the umbrella of the
848:
Service Assessment: Hurricane Katrina, August 23–31, 2005.
732:
Encyclopedia of computer science and technology, Volume 14
223:. When the two units merged, the name changed to the
483:amounts that will occur with the tropical cyclone.
172:in the event of a complete communications failure.
94:
77:
67:
57:
49:
44:
376:European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
196:and general forecasts were made for the country.
146:(three to eight days), and the interpretation of
128:National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
796:Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (2007).
711:Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (2009).
328:packages to explain and support the forecast.
1066:National Centers for Environmental Prediction
989:National Centers for Environmental Prediction
973:
120:National Centers for Environmental Prediction
8:
761:: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (
707:
705:
703:
491:Short-term forecasts (mesoscale discussions)
30:
826:
653:: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (
611:: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (
569:: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (
980:
966:
958:
824:
822:
820:
818:
816:
814:
812:
810:
808:
806:
293:Quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF)
36:
1071:1942 establishments in the United States
436:
389:
296:
267:(AWC), NCEP Central Operations, and the
932:"Hydrometeorological Prediction Center"
830:Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.
534:
754:
666:
664:
646:
604:
562:
547:"Weather Bureau Circular Letter 39-42"
29:
725:Belzer, Jack, Albert George Holzman,
631:"Weather Bureau Topics and Personnel"
589:"Weather Bureau Topics and Personnel"
136:Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
7:
844:United States Department of Commerce
424:Model diagnostics and interpretation
374:(NAM), as well as guidance from the
126:(NWS), which in turn is part of the
441:A surface weather analysis for the
869:"WB Hurricane Forecasting Service"
735:. Marcel Dekker, Inc. p. 58.
25:
18:Mesoscale precipitation discussion
186:United States Army Signal Service
925: This article incorporates
920:
676:"The WBAN Analysis Center Today"
470:Tropical cyclone forecast duties
1025:Space Weather Prediction Center
475:Ocean, if NHC is unable to so.
343:Department of Homeland Security
269:Space Weather Prediction Center
233:Fleet Numerical Weather Central
378:(ECMWF), the United Kingdom's
372:North American Mesoscale Model
365:Graphical short term forecasts
225:National Meteorological Center
87:Kathy Gilbert, Deputy Director
1:
1010:Environmental Modeling Center
411:Alaska medium range forecasts
249:Environmental Modeling Center
880:United States Weather Bureau
672:United States Weather Bureau
627:United States Weather Bureau
585:United States Weather Bureau
543:United States Weather Bureau
524:Flash Flood Guidance Systems
213:numerical weather prediction
148:numerical weather prediction
99:http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
27:United States weather agency
192:Reports were collected via
1087:
142:forecasting, medium range
1035:Weather Prediction Center
1015:National Hurricane Center
1005:Climate Prediction Center
995:
459:National Hurricane Center
253:National Hurricane Center
245:Climate Prediction Center
170:National Hurricane Center
166:National Hurricane Center
108:Weather Prediction Center
35:
31:Weather Prediction Center
1056:National Weather Service
936:National Weather Service
857:Retrieved on 2008-09-03.
834:Retrieved on 2008-09-03.
800:Retrieved on 2008-09-03.
715:Retrieved on 2008-09-03.
332:Winter weather forecasts
316:National Weather Service
201:Francis W. Reichelderfer
124:National Weather Service
62:United States government
1030:Storm Prediction Center
1020:Ocean Prediction Center
1000:Aviation Weather Center
498:Storm Prediction Center
455:Ocean Prediction Center
265:Aviation Weather Center
261:Storm Prediction Center
257:Ocean Prediction Center
927:public domain material
899:David M. Roth (2008).
446:
395:
386:Medium range forecasts
355:Department of Commerce
306:
273:College Park, Maryland
237:Camp Springs, Maryland
229:Global Weather Central
122:(NCEP), a part of the
116:College Park, Maryland
72:College Park, Maryland
876:Weather Bureau Topics
683:Weather Bureau Topics
440:
393:
325:Doppler weather radar
300:
288:Products and services
84:David Novak, Director
445:on October 21, 2006.
215:(NWP) techniques by
867:Staff (June 1959).
504:International desks
32:
1061:Weather prediction
853:2006-07-23 at the
447:
396:
307:
221:Suitland, Maryland
1043:
1042:
953:WPC Facebook page
742:978-0-8247-2214-2
301:Five-day QPF for
162:tropical cyclones
104:
103:
78:Agency executives
16:(Redirected from
1078:
982:
975:
968:
959:
943:
924:
923:
915:
910:
904:
897:
891:
890:
888:
887:
873:
864:
858:
841:
835:
828:
801:
794:
788:
787:
785:
784:
773:
767:
766:
760:
752:
750:
749:
722:
716:
709:
698:
697:
695:
694:
680:
668:
659:
658:
652:
644:
642:
640:
635:
623:
617:
616:
610:
602:
600:
598:
593:
581:
575:
574:
568:
560:
558:
556:
551:
539:
519:Hydrometeorology
451:Surface Analysis
433:Surface analysis
190:Washington, D.C.
40:
33:
21:
1086:
1085:
1081:
1080:
1079:
1077:
1076:
1075:
1046:
1045:
1044:
1039:
991:
986:
949:
930:
921:
918:
911:
907:
898:
894:
885:
883:
871:
866:
865:
861:
855:Wayback Machine
842:
838:
829:
804:
795:
791:
782:
780:
775:
774:
770:
753:
747:
745:
743:
724:
723:
719:
710:
701:
692:
690:
678:
670:
669:
662:
645:
638:
636:
633:
625:
624:
620:
603:
596:
594:
591:
583:
582:
578:
561:
554:
552:
549:
541:
540:
536:
532:
515:
506:
493:
472:
435:
426:
413:
388:
367:
334:
295:
290:
281:
182:
151:computer models
132:U.S. Government
90:
45:Agency overview
28:
23:
22:
15:
12:
11:
5:
1084:
1082:
1074:
1073:
1068:
1063:
1058:
1048:
1047:
1041:
1040:
1038:
1037:
1032:
1027:
1022:
1017:
1012:
1007:
1002:
996:
993:
992:
987:
985:
984:
977:
970:
962:
956:
955:
948:
947:External links
945:
917:
916:
905:
892:
859:
836:
832:About the WPC.
802:
798:About the WPC.
789:
768:
741:
717:
699:
674:(March 1950).
660:
629:(April 1947).
618:
576:
545:(March 1942).
533:
531:
528:
527:
526:
521:
514:
511:
505:
502:
492:
489:
471:
468:
434:
431:
425:
422:
412:
409:
387:
384:
366:
363:
333:
330:
303:Hurricane Rita
294:
291:
289:
286:
280:
277:
181:
178:
130:(NOAA) of the
114:), located in
102:
101:
96:
92:
91:
89:
88:
85:
81:
79:
75:
74:
69:
65:
64:
59:
55:
54:
51:
47:
46:
42:
41:
26:
24:
14:
13:
10:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
1083:
1072:
1069:
1067:
1064:
1062:
1059:
1057:
1054:
1053:
1051:
1036:
1033:
1031:
1028:
1026:
1023:
1021:
1018:
1016:
1013:
1011:
1008:
1006:
1003:
1001:
998:
997:
994:
990:
983:
978:
976:
971:
969:
964:
963:
960:
954:
951:
950:
946:
944:
941:
937:
933:
928:
914:
913:WPC Met Watch
909:
906:
902:
896:
893:
881:
877:
870:
863:
860:
856:
852:
849:
845:
840:
837:
833:
827:
825:
823:
821:
819:
817:
815:
813:
811:
809:
807:
803:
799:
793:
790:
778:
772:
769:
764:
758:
744:
738:
734:
733:
728:
721:
718:
714:
708:
706:
704:
700:
688:
684:
677:
673:
667:
665:
661:
656:
650:
632:
628:
622:
619:
614:
608:
590:
586:
580:
577:
572:
566:
548:
544:
538:
535:
529:
525:
522:
520:
517:
516:
512:
510:
503:
501:
499:
490:
488:
484:
480:
476:
469:
467:
464:
460:
456:
452:
444:
443:United States
439:
432:
430:
423:
421:
417:
410:
408:
406:
400:
392:
385:
383:
381:
377:
373:
364:
362:
360:
356:
352:
348:
344:
338:
331:
329:
326:
320:
317:
312:
304:
299:
292:
287:
285:
278:
276:
274:
270:
266:
262:
258:
254:
250:
246:
240:
238:
234:
230:
226:
222:
218:
214:
209:
205:
202:
197:
195:
191:
187:
179:
177:
173:
171:
167:
163:
159:
158:United States
154:
152:
149:
145:
141:
140:precipitation
137:
133:
129:
125:
121:
117:
113:
109:
100:
97:
93:
86:
83:
82:
80:
76:
73:
70:
66:
63:
60:
56:
52:
48:
43:
39:
34:
19:
1034:
935:
919:
908:
895:
884:. Retrieved
875:
862:
839:
792:
781:. Retrieved
771:
746:. Retrieved
731:
720:
691:. Retrieved
686:
682:
637:. Retrieved
621:
595:. Retrieved
587:(May 1942).
579:
553:. Retrieved
537:
507:
494:
485:
481:
477:
473:
448:
427:
418:
414:
401:
397:
368:
339:
335:
321:
308:
282:
241:
210:
206:
198:
183:
174:
155:
135:
111:
107:
105:
68:Headquarters
58:Jurisdiction
351:White House
144:forecasting
1050:Categories
886:2012-04-22
783:2013-03-07
748:2011-02-25
727:Allen Kent
693:2011-01-22
689:(3): 42–44
639:August 20,
597:August 20,
555:August 20,
530:References
380:Met Office
882:: 102–104
757:cite book
463:mesoscale
194:telegraph
851:Archived
846:(2006).
729:(1980).
649:cite web
607:cite web
565:cite web
513:See also
449:The WPC
217:computer
279:Mission
263:(SPC),
259:(OPC),
255:(NHC),
251:(EMC),
247:(CPC),
180:History
95:Website
739:
457:, the
349:, the
305:(2005)
50:Formed
929:from
872:(PDF)
679:(PDF)
634:(PDF)
592:(PDF)
550:(PDF)
940:NOAA
763:link
737:ISBN
655:link
641:2011
613:link
599:2011
571:link
557:2011
347:FEMA
309:The
231:and
106:The
53:1942
405:hPa
359:FAA
311:QPF
188:in
112:WPC
1052::
938:.
934:.
878:.
874:.
805:^
759:}}
755:{{
702:^
685:.
681:.
663:^
651:}}
647:{{
609:}}
605:{{
567:}}
563:{{
357:,
353:,
345:,
239:.
153:.
981:e
974:t
967:v
942:.
889:.
786:.
765:)
751:.
696:.
687:9
657:)
643:.
615:)
601:.
573:)
559:.
110:(
20:)
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Additional terms may apply.
