473:
47:-weighted business ratios which are readily obtained or derived from the standard periodic financial disclosure statements provided by publicly traded corporations. Two of the factors utilized are widely considered to be dummies as their value and thus their impact upon the formula typically is 0. When using an O-score to evaluate the probability of company’s failure, then exp(O-score) is divided by 1 + exp(O-score).
56:
468:{\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}T={}&-1.32-0.407\log(TA_{t}/GNP)+6.03{\frac {TL_{t}}{TA_{t}}}-1.43{\frac {WC_{t}}{TA_{t}}}+0.0757{\frac {CL_{t}}{CA_{t}}}\\&{}-1.72X-2.37{\frac {NI_{t}}{TA_{t}}}-1.83{\frac {FFO_{t}}{TL_{t}}}+0.285Y-0.521{\frac {NI_{t}-NI_{t-1}}{|NI_{t}|+|NI_{t-1}|}}\end{aligned}}}
579:
The original model for the O-score was derived from the study of a pool of just over 2000 companies, whereas by comparison its predecessor the Altman Z-score considered just 66 companies. As a result, the O-score is significantly more accurate a predictor of bankruptcy within a 2-year period. The
587:
models such as the hazard based model proposed by
Campbell, Hilscher, and Szilagyi in 2011 have proven more accurate still. For the O-score, any results larger than 0.5 suggest that the firm will default within two years.
61:
583:
However, no mathematical model is 100% accurate, so while the O-score may forecast bankruptcy or solvency, factors both inside and outside of the formula can impact its accuracy. Furthermore, later
677:
580:
original Z-score was estimated to be over 70% accurate with its later variants reaching as high as 90% accuracy. The O-score is more accurate than this.
652:
505:
495:
792:
688:
782:
737:
749:
584:
797:
754:
787:
28:
24:
607:
713:
602:
514:
597:
529:
32:
776:
486:
627:
44:
552:
567:
738:"Predicting financial distress and the performance of distressed stocks"
43:
The Ohlson O-score is the result of a 9-factor linear combination of
678:"Bankers on Boards, Financial Constraints, and Financial Distress (
714:"Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy"
23:
is a multi-factor financial formula postulated in 1980 by Dr.
653:"Improving On The Altman Z-Score, Part 2: The Ohlson O-Score"
736:
Campbell, John Y.; Hilscher, Jens; Szilagyi, Jan (2011).
16:
Multi-factor financial formula for predicting bankruptcy
59:
31:
Stern
Accounting Department as an alternative to the
676:
Mitchell, Karlyn; Walker, Mark D. (7 January 2008).
467:
50:The calculation for Ohlson O-score appears below:
680:Preliminary and incomplete. Please do not quote.
8:
753:
453:
441:
429:
421:
415:
403:
389:
373:
363:
339:
324:
311:
296:
281:
271:
254:
238:
223:
213:
198:
183:
173:
158:
143:
133:
110:
104:
70:
60:
58:
496:gross national product price index level
21:Ohlson O-score for predicting bankruptcy
619:
651:Stokes, Jonathan (13 February 2013).
7:
570:for the last two years, 0 otherwise
35:for predicting financial distress.
14:
742:Journal of Investment Management
454:
430:
422:
404:
124:
94:
1:
628:"Ohlson's O-score definition"
814:
39:Calculation of the O-score
560:= funds from operations
469:
585:bankruptcy prediction
522:= current liabilities
470:
793:Mathematical finance
498:(in USD, 1968 = 100)
57:
29:New York University
465:
463:
712:James A. Ohlson.
608:Piotroski F-score
506:total liabilities
459:
346:
303:
245:
205:
165:
805:
783:Financial ratios
767:
766:
764:
762:
757:
733:
727:
726:
724:
723:
718:
709:
703:
702:
700:
699:
693:
687:. Archived from
686:
673:
667:
666:
664:
663:
648:
642:
641:
639:
638:
624:
474:
472:
471:
466:
464:
460:
458:
457:
452:
451:
433:
425:
420:
419:
407:
401:
400:
399:
378:
377:
364:
347:
345:
344:
343:
330:
329:
328:
312:
304:
302:
301:
300:
287:
286:
285:
272:
255:
250:
246:
244:
243:
242:
229:
228:
227:
214:
206:
204:
203:
202:
189:
188:
187:
174:
166:
164:
163:
162:
149:
148:
147:
134:
114:
109:
108:
71:
813:
812:
808:
807:
806:
804:
803:
802:
773:
772:
771:
770:
760:
758:
755:10.1.1.233.2093
735:
734:
730:
721:
719:
716:
711:
710:
706:
697:
695:
691:
684:
675:
674:
670:
661:
659:
657:stockopedia.com
650:
649:
645:
636:
634:
626:
625:
621:
616:
603:Beneish M-score
594:
577:
515:working capital
462:
461:
437:
411:
402:
385:
369:
365:
335:
331:
320:
313:
292:
288:
277:
273:
248:
247:
234:
230:
219:
215:
194:
190:
179:
175:
154:
150:
139:
135:
100:
72:
55:
54:
41:
17:
12:
11:
5:
811:
809:
801:
800:
795:
790:
785:
775:
774:
769:
768:
728:
704:
668:
643:
618:
617:
615:
612:
611:
610:
605:
600:
598:Altman Z-score
593:
590:
576:
575:Interpretation
573:
572:
571:
561:
555:
546:
532:
530:current assets
523:
517:
508:
499:
489:
476:
475:
456:
450:
447:
444:
440:
436:
432:
428:
424:
418:
414:
410:
406:
398:
395:
392:
388:
384:
381:
376:
372:
368:
362:
359:
356:
353:
350:
342:
338:
334:
327:
323:
319:
316:
310:
307:
299:
295:
291:
284:
280:
276:
270:
267:
264:
261:
258:
253:
251:
249:
241:
237:
233:
226:
222:
218:
212:
209:
201:
197:
193:
186:
182:
178:
172:
169:
161:
157:
153:
146:
142:
138:
132:
129:
126:
123:
120:
117:
113:
107:
103:
99:
96:
93:
90:
87:
84:
81:
78:
75:
73:
69:
66:
63:
62:
40:
37:
33:Altman Z-score
15:
13:
10:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
810:
799:
796:
794:
791:
789:
786:
784:
781:
780:
778:
756:
751:
747:
743:
739:
732:
729:
715:
708:
705:
694:on 2012-09-26
690:
683:
681:
672:
669:
658:
654:
647:
644:
633:
629:
623:
620:
613:
609:
606:
604:
601:
599:
596:
595:
591:
589:
586:
581:
574:
569:
565:
562:
559:
556:
554:
550:
547:
545:, 0 otherwise
544:
540:
536:
533:
531:
527:
524:
521:
518:
516:
512:
509:
507:
503:
500:
497:
493:
490:
488:
484:
481:
480:
479:
448:
445:
442:
438:
434:
426:
416:
412:
408:
396:
393:
390:
386:
382:
379:
374:
370:
366:
360:
357:
354:
351:
348:
340:
336:
332:
325:
321:
317:
314:
308:
305:
297:
293:
289:
282:
278:
274:
268:
265:
262:
259:
256:
252:
239:
235:
231:
224:
220:
216:
210:
207:
199:
195:
191:
184:
180:
176:
170:
167:
159:
155:
151:
144:
140:
136:
130:
127:
121:
118:
115:
111:
105:
101:
97:
91:
88:
85:
82:
79:
76:
74:
67:
64:
53:
52:
51:
48:
46:
38:
36:
34:
30:
26:
22:
759:. Retrieved
745:
741:
731:
720:. Retrieved
707:
696:. Retrieved
689:the original
679:
671:
660:. Retrieved
656:
646:
635:. Retrieved
631:
622:
582:
578:
563:
557:
548:
542:
538:
534:
525:
519:
510:
501:
491:
487:total assets
482:
477:
49:
42:
25:James Ohlson
20:
18:
798:Credit risk
748:(2): 1–21.
632:ycharts.com
45:coefficient
788:Bankruptcy
777:Categories
761:August 23,
722:2021-02-15
698:2014-06-12
662:2014-06-12
637:2014-06-12
614:References
553:net income
750:CiteSeerX
566:= 1 if a
446:−
394:−
380:−
358:−
306:−
266:−
257:−
168:−
92:
83:−
77:−
592:See also
568:net loss
537:= 1 if
27:of the
752:
478:where
211:0.0757
717:(PDF)
692:(PDF)
685:(PDF)
541:>
361:0.521
352:0.285
86:0.407
763:2023
309:1.83
269:2.37
260:1.72
171:1.43
131:6.03
80:1.32
19:The
558:FFO
492:GNP
89:log
779::
744:.
740:.
682:)"
655:.
630:.
551:=
549:NI
543:TA
539:TL
528:=
526:CA
520:CL
513:=
511:WC
504:=
502:TL
494:=
485:=
483:TA
765:.
746:9
725:.
701:.
665:.
640:.
564:Y
535:X
455:|
449:1
443:t
439:I
435:N
431:|
427:+
423:|
417:t
413:I
409:N
405:|
397:1
391:t
387:I
383:N
375:t
371:I
367:N
355:Y
349:+
341:t
337:L
333:T
326:t
322:O
318:F
315:F
298:t
294:A
290:T
283:t
279:I
275:N
263:X
240:t
236:A
232:C
225:t
221:L
217:C
208:+
200:t
196:A
192:T
185:t
181:C
177:W
160:t
156:A
152:T
145:t
141:L
137:T
128:+
125:)
122:P
119:N
116:G
112:/
106:t
102:A
98:T
95:(
68:=
65:T
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Additional terms may apply.