118:
98:). Therefore, we might be nearing the end of this warm period. However, this conclusion is probably mistaken: the lengths of previous interglacials were not particularly regular (see graphic at right). Berger and Loutre (2002) argue that “with or without human perturbations, the current warm climate may last another 50,000 years. The reason is a minimum in the eccentricity of Earth's orbit around the Sun.” Also, Archer and Ganopolski (2005) report that probable future CO
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2184:
83:
2220:
2208:
113:
Orbital mechanics require that the length of the seasons be proportional to the swept areas of the seasonal quadrants, so when the eccentricity is extreme, the seasons on the far side of the orbit can last substantially longer. Today, when autumn and winter in the
Northern Hemisphere occur at closest
45:
cycles. A strict application of the
Milankovitch theory does not allow the prediction of a "sudden" ice age (sudden being anything under a century or two), since the fastest orbital period is about 20,000 years. The timing of past glacial periods coincides very well with the predictions of the
109:
of the cycles, and the striking asymmetry of the curves. This asymmetry is believed to result from complex interactions of feedback mechanisms. It has been observed that ice ages deepen in progressive steps. However, the recovery to interglacial conditions occurs in a single large step.
38:). These orbital changes modify the total amount of sunlight reaching the Earth by up to 25% at mid-latitudes (from 400 to 500 W/(m) at latitudes of 60 degrees). In this context, the term "forcing" signifies a physical process that affects the Earth's climate.
53:
periods of Earth's climatic history. Changes in lacustrine sediments corresponding to the timeframes of periodic orbital cycles have been interpreted as evidence of orbital forcing on climate during greenhouse periods like the
117:
1920:
2096:
1764:
640:
Cionco, Rodolfo G., and Pablo Abuin. "On planetary torque signals and sub-decadal frequencies in the discharges of large rivers." Advances in Space
Research 57.6 (2016): 1411–1425.
1937:
137:
occur, Northern
Hemisphere winters will get longer and summers will get shorter, eventually creating conditions believed to be favourable for triggering the next glacial period.
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Mitchell, Ross N.; Bice, David M.; Montanari, Alessandro; Cleaveland, Laura C.; Christianson, Keith T.; Coccioni, Rodolfo; Hinnov, Linda A. (1 March 2008).
999:
1258:
1216:
386:
Kuhnt, Wolfgang; Holbourn, Ann E.; Beil, Sebastian; Aquit, Mohamed; Krawczyk, Tim; Flögel, Sascha; Chellai, El
Hassane; Jabour, Haddou (11 August 2017).
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It is sometimes asserted that the length of the current interglacial temperature peak will be similar to that of the preceding interglacial peak (
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218:"Terrestrial sedimentary responses to astronomically forced climate changes during the Early Paleogene in the Bohai Bay Basin, eastern China"
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388:"Unraveling the onset of Cretaceous Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 in an extended sediment archive from the Tarfaya-Laayoune Basin, Morocco"
114:
approach, the Earth is moving at its maximum velocity and therefore autumn and winter are slightly shorter than spring and summer.
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1981:
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The arrangements of land masses on the Earth's surface are believed to reinforce the orbital forcing effects. Comparisons of
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519:"Global Warming, Ice Ages, and Sea Level Changes: Something new or an astronomical phenomenon occurring in present day?"
125:
Today in the
Northern Hemisphere, summer is 4.66 days longer than winter and spring is 2.9 days longer than autumn. As
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1353:
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518:
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The length of the seasons is proportional to the area of the Earth's orbit swept between the solstices and equinoxes.
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1976:
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includes (calculated) data on orbital variations over the last 50 million years and for the coming 20 million years
536:
Hays, J. D.; Imbrie, John; Shackleton, N. J. (1976). "Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages".
266:"Astronomical forcing and chronology of the early Toarcian (Early Jurassic) oceanic anoxic event in Yorkshire, UK"
86:
Ice core data. Note length of glacial cycles averages ~100,000 years. Blue curve is temperature, green curve is CO
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58:. Notably, Milankovitch cycles have been theorised to be important modulators of biogeochemical cycles during
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90:, and red curve is windblown glacial dust (loess). Today's date is on the right side of the graph.
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and complete summer melting. The presence or absence of snow and ice is a well-understood
181:
55:
426:
Berger, A.; Loutre, M. F. (23 August 2002). "An
Exceptionally Long Interglacial Ahead?".
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264:
Kemp, David B.; Coe, Angela L.; Cohen, Anthony S.; Weedon, Graham P. (1 November 2011).
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Shi, Juye; Jin, Zhijun; Liu, Quanyou; Huang, Zhenkai; Hao, Yunqing (1 August 2018).
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2012:
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are situated such that a minor change in solar energy will tip the balance in the
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when landmasses have been concentrated in polar regions, as is the case today.
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emissions may be enough to suppress the glacial cycle for the next 500 kyr.
565:
447:
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Milankovitch theory, and these effects can be calculated into the future.
502:
473:
405:
284:
49:
Milankovitch cycles are also associated with environmental change during
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1004:
348:"Oceanic anoxic cycles? Orbital prelude to the Bonarelli Level (OAE 2)"
42:
23:
2418:
2007:
165:
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provide another, slightly different series for orbital eccentricity
41:
This mechanism is believed to be responsible for the timing of the
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31:
27:
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1921:
Cooperative
Mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement
116:
657:
The orbital simulations by Varadi, Ghil and
Runnegar (2003)
2097:
Illustrative model of greenhouse effect on climate change
623:. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. p. 7.
585:. New York: Oxford University Press. pp. 507–508.
306:
Coccioni, Rodolfo; Galeotti, Simone (15 January 2003).
198:
Paleocene–Eocene
Thermal Maximum § Orbital forcing
16:
Effect on the Earth's climate from slow orbital changes
1938:
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
581:
Hays, James D. (1996). Schneider, Stephen H. (ed.).
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600:Lutgens, Frederick K.; Tarbuck, Edward J. (1998).
313:Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology
223:Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology
129:changes the place in the Earth's orbit where the
2138:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
602:The Atmosphere. An Introduction to Meteorology
2404:Pacific–North American teleconnection pattern
2252:
883:History of climate change policy and politics
678:
8:
308:"The mid-Cenomanian Event: prelude to OAE 2"
1000:Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
604:. Upper Saddle River, N.J.: Prentice-Hall.
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1765:Adaptation strategies on the German coast
908:United Nations Climate Change conferences
501:
283:
1469:Co-benefits of climate change mitigation
148:and paleoclimatic studies show that the
72:Cenomanian-Turonian Oceanic Anoxic Event
1825:National Adaptation Programme of Action
1614:Land use, land-use change, and forestry
621:Solar Variability, Weather, and Climate
208:
1474:Economics of climate change mitigation
1437:Gold Standard (carbon offset standard)
788:Scientific consensus on climate change
2133:Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
651:The NOAA page on Climate Forcing Data
478:And The Onset Of The Next Glaciation"
393:Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
271:Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
7:
2155:Representative Concentration Pathway
1106:Tipping points in the climate system
782:Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere
517:Benson, Gregory (11 December 2007).
482:Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems
2349:Equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation
1926:Nationally determined contributions
1636:Individual action on climate change
851:World energy supply and consumption
583:Encyclopedia of Weather and Climate
472:; Ganopolski, Andrey (5 May 2005).
353:Earth and Planetary Science Letters
26:of slow changes in the tilt of the
2065:Fixed anvil temperature hypothesis
619:National Research Council (1982).
474:"A Movable Trigger: Fossil Fuel CO
14:
2339:Diurnal air temperature variation
2324:Cataclysmic pole shift hypothesis
2309:Atlantic multidecadal oscillation
1992:Satellite temperature measurement
1597:forestry for carbon sequestration
888:History of climate change science
30:'s axis and shape of the Earth's
2218:
2206:
2195:
2194:
2182:
1843:Climate Change Performance Index
182:year-round snow/ice preservation
152:have the greatest effect during
105:Note in the graphic, the strong
1982:Instrumental temperature record
1933:Sustainable Development Goal 13
164:, and the northern portions of
2050:Climate variability and change
1091:Retreat of glaciers since 1850
1:
2160:Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
1695:Climate emergency declaration
558:10.1126/science.194.4270.1121
326:10.1016/S0031-0182(02)00617-X
64:Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event
2344:El Niño–Southern Oscillation
2143:IPCC Sixth Assessment Report
1369:Middle East and North Africa
236:10.1016/j.palaeo.2018.01.006
2394:Pacific decadal oscillation
2466:
2409:Quasi-biennial oscillation
2379:North Atlantic oscillation
2284:Antarctic Circumpolar Wave
1977:Global surface temperature
1868:Popular culture depictions
1780:Ecosystem-based adaptation
1510:Carbon capture and storage
1432:Carbon offsets and credits
366:10.1016/j.epsl.2007.11.026
2384:North Pacific Oscillation
2364:Madden–Julian oscillation
2189:Climate change portal
2176:
2082:Extreme event attribution
1965:
1954:
1705:School Strike for Climate
1673:
1659:
1584:Climate-smart agriculture
1408:
1395:
968:
955:
878:
867:
761:
748:
731:Climate change adaptation
726:Climate change mitigation
721:Effects of climate change
711:
700:
2329:Dansgaard–Oeschger event
2304:Atlantic Equatorial mode
2092:Global warming potential
1899:International agreements
1546:Preserving and enhancing
990:Arctic methane emissions
912:Years in climate change
819:Greenhouse gas emissions
716:Causes of climate change
107:100,000 year periodicity
2399:Pacific Meridional Mode
2123:Climate change scenario
1775:Disaster risk reduction
1427:Carbon emission trading
1237:U.S. insurance industry
1217:Civilizational collapse
1064:sea surface temperature
440:10.1126/science.1076120
188:mechanism for climate.
2116:Research and modelling
1800:Nature-based solutions
1620:Nature-based solutions
1562:Carbon dioxide removal
1479:Fossil fuel divestment
1464:Climate risk insurance
1374:Small island countries
995:Arctic sea ice decline
122:
91:
2294:Arctic dipole anomaly
2289:Antarctic oscillation
2077:Earth's energy budget
1960:Background and theory
1848:Climate crisis (term)
1520:Fossil fuel phase-out
1414:Economics and finance
1379:by individual country
1321:By country and region
1296:Security and conflict
1291:Psychological impacts
980:Abrupt climate change
903:Charles David Keeling
736:By country and region
178:climate of the Arctic
120:
96:Sangamonian/Eem Stage
85:
60:oceanic anoxic events
2268:Climate oscillations
1906:Glasgow Climate Pact
1567:Carbon sequestration
1142:Mass mortality event
503:10.1029/2004GC000891
406:10.1002/2017PA003146
285:10.1029/2011PA002122
68:Mid-Cenomanian Event
34:around the Sun (see
2369:Milankovitch cycles
2359:Indian Ocean Dipole
2045:Climate sensitivity
1820:The Adaptation Fund
1276:Infectious diseases
1183:Social and economic
550:1976Sci...194.1121H
544:(4270): 1121–1132.
494:2005GGG.....6.5003A
434:(5585): 1287–1288.
150:Milankovitch cycles
36:Milankovitch cycles
2314:Earth's axial tilt
2299:Arctic oscillation
1616:(LULUCF and AFOLU)
1588:Forest management
1572:Direct air capture
1537:Sustainable energy
1494:Net zero emissions
1489:Low-carbon economy
1484:Green Climate Fund
1271:Indigenous peoples
1174:Plant biodiversity
962:Effects and issues
123:
92:
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2429:True polar wander
2424:Solar variability
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2107:Radiative forcing
1950:
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1770:Adaptive capacity
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1515:Energy transition
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1111:Tropical cyclones
1037:Urban heat island
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824:Carbon accounting
778:Greenhouse effect
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186:positive feedback
22:is the effect on
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2150:Paleoclimatology
1967:
1956:
1717:Ecological grief
1700:Climate movement
1675:
1661:
1641:Plant-based diet
1532:Renewable energy
1410:
1397:
1232:Economic impacts
1164:Invasive species
1020:Coastal flooding
970:
957:
893:Svante Arrhenius
869:
839:from agriculture
829:Carbon footprint
814:Greenhouse gases
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127:axial precession
62:, including the
56:Early Palaeogene
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2450:Climate forcing
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2389:Orbital forcing
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2102:Orbital forcing
1996:
1961:
1942:
1916:Paris Agreement
1894:
1890:Warming stripes
1829:
1795:Managed retreat
1790:Loss and damage
1751:
1685:Business action
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1459:Climate finance
1404:
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1154:Extinction risk
1130:Flora and fauna
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1086:Permafrost thaw
1081:Ozone depletion
1010:Extreme weather
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1214:
1209:
1204:
1203:
1202:
1197:
1186:
1184:
1180:
1179:
1177:
1176:
1171:
1166:
1161:
1159:Forest dieback
1156:
1151:
1146:
1145:
1144:
1133:
1131:
1127:
1126:
1124:
1123:
1118:
1113:
1108:
1103:
1098:
1096:Sea level rise
1093:
1088:
1083:
1078:
1077:
1076:
1071:
1069:stratification
1066:
1061:
1056:
1051:
1041:
1040:
1039:
1034:
1024:
1023:
1022:
1012:
1007:
1002:
997:
992:
987:
982:
976:
974:
966:
965:
960:
953:
952:
949:
948:
946:
945:
944:
943:
938:
933:
928:
923:
918:
910:
905:
900:
895:
890:
885:
879:
876:
875:
872:
865:
864:
861:
860:
857:
856:
854:
853:
848:
847:
846:
841:
836:
834:Carbon leakage
831:
826:
816:
811:
806:
800:
798:
794:
793:
791:
790:
785:
775:
773:Climate system
769:
767:
759:
758:
753:
746:
745:
742:
741:
739:
738:
733:
728:
723:
718:
712:
709:
708:
705:
698:
697:
694:Climate change
692:
690:
689:
682:
675:
667:
661:
660:
654:
646:
645:External links
643:
642:
641:
636:
635:
629:
616:
610:
597:
591:
578:
532:
530:
527:
525:
524:
509:
475:
461:
418:
400:(8): 923–946.
378:
338:
298:
256:
207:
205:
202:
201:
200:
193:
190:
142:plate tectonic
99:
87:
79:
76:
15:
13:
10:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
2462:
2451:
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2360:
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2347:
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2342:
2340:
2337:
2335:
2334:Diurnal cycle
2332:
2330:
2327:
2325:
2322:
2320:
2317:
2315:
2312:
2310:
2307:
2305:
2302:
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2205:
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2193:
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2161:
2158:
2156:
2153:
2151:
2148:
2144:
2141:
2140:
2139:
2136:
2134:
2131:
2129:
2128:Climate model
2126:
2124:
2121:
2120:
2118:
2114:
2108:
2105:
2103:
2100:
2098:
2095:
2093:
2090:
2088:
2085:
2083:
2080:
2078:
2075:
2073:
2070:
2066:
2063:
2062:
2061:
2060:Cloud forcing
2058:
2056:
2053:
2051:
2048:
2046:
2043:
2041:
2038:
2034:
2031:
2029:
2026:
2024:
2021:
2019:
2016:
2015:
2014:
2011:
2009:
2006:
2005:
2003:
1999:
1993:
1990:
1988:
1985:
1983:
1980:
1978:
1975:
1974:
1972:
1968:
1964:
1957:
1953:
1939:
1936:
1934:
1931:
1927:
1924:
1922:
1919:
1918:
1917:
1914:
1912:
1909:
1907:
1904:
1903:
1901:
1897:
1891:
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1884:
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1879:
1876:
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1859:
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1841:
1840:
1838:
1836:
1835:Communication
1832:
1826:
1823:
1821:
1818:
1816:
1815:Vulnerability
1813:
1811:
1808:
1806:
1803:
1801:
1798:
1796:
1793:
1791:
1788:
1786:
1785:Flood control
1783:
1781:
1778:
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1773:
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1768:
1766:
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1758:
1754:
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1703:
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1642:
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1638:
1637:
1634:
1633:
1631:
1627:
1621:
1618:
1615:
1612:
1608:
1607:reforestation
1605:
1603:
1600:
1598:
1595:
1593:
1592:afforestation
1590:
1589:
1587:
1585:
1582:
1580:
1577:
1573:
1570:
1568:
1565:
1564:
1563:
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1558:
1555:
1554:
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1544:
1538:
1535:
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1530:
1528:
1527:Nuclear power
1525:
1521:
1518:
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1516:
1513:
1511:
1508:
1507:
1505:
1501:
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1457:
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1450:
1447:
1445:
1442:
1438:
1435:
1434:
1433:
1430:
1428:
1425:
1423:
1422:Carbon budget
1420:
1419:
1417:
1415:
1411:
1407:
1403:
1398:
1394:
1380:
1377:
1375:
1372:
1370:
1367:
1365:
1362:
1360:
1357:
1355:
1352:
1350:
1347:
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1337:
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1332:
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1327:
1326:
1324:
1322:
1318:
1312:
1309:
1307:
1304:
1302:
1299:
1297:
1294:
1292:
1289:
1287:
1284:
1282:
1279:
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1269:
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1264:
1260:
1259:Mental health
1257:
1256:
1255:
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1238:
1235:
1234:
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1210:
1208:
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1200:United States
1198:
1196:
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1192:
1191:
1188:
1187:
1185:
1181:
1175:
1172:
1170:
1167:
1165:
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1160:
1157:
1155:
1152:
1150:
1147:
1143:
1140:
1139:
1138:
1135:
1134:
1132:
1128:
1122:
1119:
1117:
1114:
1112:
1109:
1107:
1104:
1102:
1099:
1097:
1094:
1092:
1089:
1087:
1084:
1082:
1079:
1075:
1072:
1070:
1067:
1065:
1062:
1060:
1057:
1055:
1054:deoxygenation
1052:
1050:
1049:acidification
1047:
1046:
1045:
1042:
1038:
1035:
1033:
1030:
1029:
1028:
1025:
1021:
1018:
1017:
1016:
1013:
1011:
1008:
1006:
1003:
1001:
998:
996:
993:
991:
988:
986:
983:
981:
978:
977:
975:
971:
967:
963:
958:
954:
942:
939:
937:
934:
932:
929:
927:
924:
922:
919:
917:
914:
913:
911:
909:
906:
904:
901:
899:
896:
894:
891:
889:
886:
884:
881:
880:
877:
870:
866:
852:
849:
845:
844:from wetlands
842:
840:
837:
835:
832:
830:
827:
825:
822:
821:
820:
817:
815:
812:
810:
807:
805:
804:Deforestation
802:
801:
799:
795:
789:
786:
783:
779:
776:
774:
771:
770:
768:
764:
760:
756:
751:
747:
737:
734:
732:
729:
727:
724:
722:
719:
717:
714:
713:
710:
703:
699:
695:
688:
683:
681:
676:
674:
669:
668:
665:
658:
655:
652:
649:
648:
644:
639:
638:
632:
630:0-309-03284-9
626:
622:
617:
613:
611:0-13-742974-6
607:
603:
598:
594:
592:0-19-509485-9
588:
584:
579:
575:
571:
567:
563:
559:
555:
551:
547:
543:
539:
534:
533:
528:
520:
513:
510:
504:
499:
495:
491:
488:(5): Q05003.
487:
483:
479:
471:
470:Archer, David
465:
462:
457:
453:
449:
445:
441:
437:
433:
429:
422:
419:
407:
403:
399:
395:
394:
389:
382:
379:
367:
363:
360:(1–2): 1–16.
359:
355:
354:
349:
342:
339:
327:
323:
319:
315:
314:
309:
302:
299:
286:
281:
277:
273:
272:
267:
260:
257:
245:
241:
237:
233:
229:
225:
224:
219:
212:
209:
203:
199:
196:
195:
191:
189:
187:
183:
179:
175:
174:North America
171:
167:
163:
159:
155:
154:geologic eras
151:
147:
143:
138:
136:
132:
128:
119:
115:
111:
108:
103:
97:
84:
77:
75:
73:
69:
65:
61:
57:
52:
47:
44:
39:
37:
33:
29:
25:
21:
2414:Seasonal lag
2388:
2277:oscillations
2223:
2211:
2199:
2180:
2101:
2013:Carbon cycle
1970:Measurements
1665:Society and
1549:carbon sinks
1454:Climate debt
1444:Carbon price
1266:Human rights
1101:Season creep
1059:heat content
985:Anoxic event
898:James Hansen
620:
601:
582:
541:
537:
512:
485:
481:
464:
431:
427:
421:
409:. Retrieved
397:
391:
381:
369:. Retrieved
357:
351:
341:
329:. Retrieved
317:
311:
301:
289:. Retrieved
275:
269:
259:
247:. Retrieved
227:
221:
211:
139:
124:
112:
104:
93:
48:
40:
19:
18:
2040:Carbon sink
2018:atmospheric
1883:video games
1557:Blue carbon
1190:Agriculture
1169:Marine life
1116:Water cycle
1074:temperature
809:Fossil fuel
320:: 427–440.
278:(4): 1–17.
2319:Bond event
2072:Cryosphere
2033:permafrost
1805:Resilience
1757:Adaptation
1732:Litigation
1722:Governance
1667:adaptation
1449:Carbon tax
1402:Mitigation
1339:Antarctica
1227:Disability
331:22 January
249:12 January
204:References
180:, between
162:Antarctica
144:continent
70:, and the
51:greenhouse
2087:Feedbacks
1858:Education
1359:Caribbean
1354:Australia
1281:Migration
1244:Fisheries
1195:Livestock
1121:Wildfires
1027:Heat wave
456:128923481
371:2 January
244:134068136
158:Greenland
135:equinoxes
131:solstices
2444:Category
2213:Glossary
2201:Category
2023:biologic
1737:Politics
1629:Personal
1334:Americas
1207:Children
973:Physical
766:Overview
706:Overview
566:17790893
448:12193773
230:: 1–12.
192:See also
78:Overview
2419:Seasons
2374:Monsoon
2275:Climate
2028:oceanic
1878:fiction
1727:Justice
1678:Society
1286:Poverty
1005:Drought
873:History
797:Sources
546:Bibcode
538:Science
490:Bibcode
428:Science
411:5 April
291:5 April
43:ice age
24:climate
2008:Albedo
2001:Theory
1712:Denial
1503:Energy
1364:Europe
1344:Arctic
1329:Africa
1254:Health
1249:Gender
1212:Cities
1137:Biomes
1044:Oceans
1032:Marine
755:Causes
627:
608:
589:
574:667291
572:
564:
454:
446:
242:
172:, and
166:Europe
66:, the
2225:Index
1987:Proxy
1747:Women
1222:Crime
1149:Birds
1015:Flood
570:S2CID
452:S2CID
240:S2CID
32:orbit
28:Earth
1810:Risk
1349:Asia
941:2024
936:2023
931:2022
926:2021
921:2020
916:2019
625:ISBN
606:ISBN
587:ISBN
562:PMID
444:PMID
413:2023
373:2023
333:2023
293:2023
251:2023
170:Asia
133:and
1873:art
554:doi
542:194
498:doi
436:doi
432:297
402:doi
362:doi
358:267
322:doi
318:190
280:doi
232:doi
228:502
2446::
568:.
560:.
552:.
540:.
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484:.
480:.
450:.
442:.
430:.
398:32
396:.
390:.
356:.
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316:.
310:.
276:26
274:.
268:.
238:.
226:.
220:.
168:,
160:,
74:.
2260:e
2253:t
2246:v
784:)
780:(
686:e
679:t
672:v
633:.
614:.
595:.
576:.
556::
548::
521:.
506:.
500::
492::
486:6
476:2
458:.
438::
415:.
404::
375:.
364::
335:.
324::
295:.
282::
253:.
234::
100:2
88:2
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Additional terms may apply.
