77:. In the paper, Box uses the phrase to refer to the limitations of models, arguing that while no model is ever completely accurate, simpler models can still provide valuable insights if applied judiciously. In their 1983 book on generalized linear models, Peter McCullagh and John Nelder stated that while modeling in science is a creative process, some models are better than others, even though none can claim eternal truth. In 1996, an Applied Statistician's Creed was proposed by M.R. Nester, which incorporated the aphorism as a central tenet.
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used the analogy of city maps to explain that models, like maps, serve practical purposes despite their limitations, emphasizing that certain models, though simplified, are not necessarily wrong. In response, Andrew Gelman acknowledged Steele’s point but defended the usefulness of the aphorism,
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Philosopher Peter Truran, in a 2013 essay, discussed how seemingly incompatible models can make accurate predictions by representing different aspects of the same phenomenon, illustrating the point with an example of two observers viewing a cylindrical object from different angles.
119:, in a 1995 commentary, argued that stating all models are wrong is unhelpful, as models by their nature simplify reality. He emphasized that statistical models, like other scientific models, aim to capture important aspects of systems through idealized representations.
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Box used the aphorism again in 1979, where he expanded on the idea by discussing how models serve as useful approximations, despite failing to perfectly describe empirical phenomena. He later reiterated this sentiment in his later
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In their 2002 book on statistical model selection, Burnham and
Anderson reiterated Box’s statement, noting that while models are simplifications of reality, they vary in usefulness, from highly useful to essentially useless.
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always fall short of the complexities of reality but can still be useful nonetheless. The aphorism originally referred just to statistical models, but it is now sometimes used for
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Although the aphorism is most commonly associated with George Box, the underlying idea has been historically expressed by various thinkers in the past. In 1939,
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reiterated that models are meant to aid in understanding or decision-making about the real world, a point emphasized by Box’s famous remark.
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Box, G. E. P. (1979), "Robustness in the strategy of scientific model building", in Launer, R. L.; Wilkinson, G. N. (eds.),
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where he discussed how models should be judged based on their utility rather than their absolute correctness.
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Box, G. E. P. (1999), "Statistics as a catalyst to learning by scientific method Part II—A discussion",
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The phrase "all models are wrong" was first attributed to George Box in a 1976 paper published in the
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The relatedness of
Shewhart's quotation with the aphorism "all models are wrong" is noted by
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Cox, D. R. (1995), "Comment on "Model uncertainty, data mining and statistical inference"",
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Model
Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach
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Fricker, R. D., Jr.; Woodall, W. H. (2016), "Play it again, and again, Sam",
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Vegetation
Dynamics on the Mountains and Plateaus of the American Southwest
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particularly in drawing attention to the inherent imperfections of models.
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Skogen, M.D.; Ji, R.; Akimova, A.; Daewel, U.; and eleven others (2021),
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Hand, D. J. (2014), "Wonderful examples, but let's not close our eyes",
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Some thoughts on the saying, 'All models are wrong, but some are useful'
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709:Collected Works of Paul Valéry, Volume 14—Analects
544:Truran, P. (2013), "Models: Useful but Not True",
479:Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A
369:Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C
189: – Scientific activity that produces models
293:Journal of the American Statistical Association
74:Journal of the American Statistical Association
632:"Relativity and the Global Positioning System"
459:Empirical Model-Building and Response Surfaces
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96:noted that no models are ever true, not even
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737:Wolfson, M. C.; Murphy, B. B. (April 1998),
697:: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (
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45:The aphorism is generally attributed to
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519:Models: Masterpieces and Lame Excuses
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361:"An applied statistician's creed"
852:Issues in Science and Technology
739:"New views on inequality trends"
685:10.1111/j.1740-9713.2016.00944.x
548:, SpringerBriefs in Philosophy,
177: – Philosophical tradition
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238:Marine Ecology Progress Series
207: – Resemblance to reality
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782:Journal of Quality Technology
558:10.1007/978-3-319-00452-5_10
530:Gelman, A. (12 June 2008), "
407:Fricker & Woodall (2016)
199:Statistical model validation
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717:Princeton University Press
283:Box, George E. P. (1976),
847:When all models are wrong
341:Generalized Linear Models
321:Generalized Linear Models
422:Robustness in Statistics
285:"Science and statistics"
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359:Nester, M. R. (1996),
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16:Aphorism in statistics
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181:Reification (fallacy)
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879:All models are wrong
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187:Scientific modelling
20:All models are wrong
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584:Statistical Science
343:(second ed.),
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325:Chapman & Hall
151:Anscombe's quartet
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768:The end of theory
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104:Discussions
94:Georg Rasch
893:Categories
620:References
591:: 98–100,
175:Pragmatism
139:David Hand
66:George Box
32:statistics
28:anapodoton
899:Aphorisms
789:: 16–29,
678:(4): 46,
628:Ashby, N.
598:1405.4986
486:: 455–456
267:229617529
137:In 2014,
117:David Cox
836:33585835
730:Springer
693:citation
630:(2002),
550:Springer
506:, §1.2.5
347:, §1.1.4
327:, §1.1.4
245:: 7–13,
145:See also
24:aphorism
827:7880041
649:Bibcode
390:2986064
247:Bibcode
57:History
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750:: 3–23
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773:Wired
742:(PDF)
635:(PDF)
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364:(PDF)
288:(PDF)
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233:(PDF)
212:Notes
109:works
885:blog
875:blog
832:PMID
699:link
562:ISBN
439:ISBN
26:and
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822:PMC
814:doi
791:doi
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