90:, Maine held its elections for statewide and congressional offices in September, not in November as most other states did, due to frigid November weather and Maine's early harvest (Maine did hold its presidential elections in November). Maine was a reliably Republican state during the time period, but the size of the margin was predictive; a close run in September in Maine would predict good results for Democrats in the rest of the country in November, while a Republican landslide would suggest a good Republican year.
47:
predicted the party outcome of the
November presidential election in 23 out of the 29 presidential election years from 1820 to 1932: namely 1820–1844, 1852, 1860–1880, 1888, 1896–1908 and 1920–1932; more importantly, as Maine was a generally Republican-leaning state, the margin of the September
48:
elections compared to expectations could predict national
November results more than the identity of the winning party in Maine. A contest still won by the Republicans but with a narrower margin than usual would still predict good Democratic results nationally.
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Following the 1936 election debacle, only one out of the five presidential elections from 1940 to 1956 had the party whose nominee won Maine's
September gubernatorial election win the presidential election: in 1952, Republican
159:, giving Landon only eight electoral votes (the three from Vermont and the five from Maine), equalling the smallest total ever (as of 2020) won by a major-party nominee since the beginning of the current U.S.
140:) and 1934, the Republicans had been making gains in the Maine Legislature: as such, the Republican victories in Maine in September 1936 caused Republicans to trumpet the phrase and predict a national trend.
482:
118:
97:
often went to considerable lengths to win Maine's early congressional and statewide elections, despite the state's relatively small population (giving it two seats in the
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In fact, since the birth of the
Republican Party in 1854, Vermont and Maine have voted for different presidential candidates in the same election only twice: in
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won the presidential election despite losing the overall popular vote nationwide. The saying originated following this election, though it is unknown by whom.
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and four electoral votes in the
November presidential elections) and somewhat remote location in the far northeast of the continental United States.
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in 1856: Landon was defeated by
Roosevelt in an unprecedented landslide, destroying any credibility of the phrase, and also lost his home state of
204:, and flipped the state. During the same time, Vermont was still a mostly reliable Republican stronghold (having only voted Democratic once, in
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in
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candidate, as its governor; two months later, the Whig Party presidential candidate,
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Maine's reputation as a bellwether began in 1840, when it elected
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335:
Speel, Robert W. (1994). "Vermont, the North, and
Realignment".
212:): both states would shift to being reliably Democratic in
180:, a third-party campaign by former Republican president
129:) and two Democratic congressmen in both 1932 (although
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Beginning with its creation as a state in 1820 when it
231:
In 1959, Maine changed its election laws to hold all
121:in its early balloting. While Maine had elected a
405:The Oxford History of the American People, Vol. 3
200:candidate on the losing Democratic ticket led by
483:United States presidential elections terminology
351:"2006 Campaign Tip Sheet - Maine state profile"
403:Morison, Samuel Eliot (1972). "The New Deal".
147:were the only states that Republican nominee
8:
228:was elected to his first term as President.
216:, and have not voted Republican ever since.
309:"'As Maine goes' tradition went - long ago"
109:In 1936, Maine elected Republican governor
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184:split the Republican vote with President
287:"As Goes Washington, So Goes the Nation"
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278:
93:In subsequent election cycles, national
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382:Mills, Paul H. (September 10, 2006).
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451:. September 23, 1957. Archived from
307:Harkavy, Jerry (September 6, 1998).
423:"The Significance of the V.P. Pick"
143:That November, however, Maine and
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21:As Maine goes, so goes the nation
285:Trende, Sean (August 18, 2010).
478:American political catchphrases
245:Bellwether § United States
113:, an overwhelmingly Republican
16:Maxim in United States politics
1:
421:Rudin, Ken (July 14, 2000).
224:was elected Governor, while
337:Changing Patterns of Voting
75:candidates, and Republican
509:
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157:1936 presidential election
71:, Maine voted solidly for
65:1840 presidential election
119:congressional delegation
117:, and an all-Republican
99:House of Representatives
192:, favorite son Senator
151:carried over President
27:. The phrase described
61:William Henry Harrison
37:presidential elections
25:United States politics
23:" was once a maxim in
455:on February 10, 2008.
257:...So Goes the Nation
153:Franklin D. Roosevelt
443:"As the Nation Goes"
363:on November 15, 2006
226:Dwight D. Eisenhower
39:. Maine's September
428:The Washington Post
392:. Lewiston, Maine).
339:. Penn State Press.
291:Real Clear Politics
263:Missouri bellwether
186:William Howard Taft
167:by a large margin.
31:'s reputation as a
314:The Standard-Times
182:Theodore Roosevelt
105:Bellwether no more
493:Politics of Maine
233:general elections
206:Lyndon B. Johnson
198:vice-presidential
196:of Maine was the
115:state legislature
95:political parties
77:Benjamin Harrison
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161:two-party system
111:Lewis O. Barrows
73:Republican Party
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384:"As Maine goes"
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321:on May 7, 1999.
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202:Hubert Humphrey
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127:Louis J. Brann
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365:. Retrieved
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389:Sun Journal
367:October 13,
67:. Again in
53:Edward Kent
488:Psephology
467:Categories
269:References
251:Bellwether
149:Alf Landon
125:governor (
123:Democratic
63:, won the
57:Whig Party
35:state for
33:bellwether
131:President
84:split off
239:See also
45:governor
41:election
155:in the
145:Vermont
165:Kansas
55:, the
86:from
43:of a
29:Maine
448:Time
369:2006
214:1992
190:1968
178:1912
69:1888
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