945:
tipping point state, and the next 10 states with close margins on each side, are shown as the swing states in retrospect, along with the "bias" which is the difference between the final margin in the tipping point state and final popular vote margin. This takes into account inherent electoral college advantages; for example, Michigan was the closest state in 2016 by result, and Nevada was the closest state to the national popular vote result, but the tipping points that most mattered for assembling a 270 electoral vote coalition were
Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
926:
recent elections been considered "safe" for a particular party, and therefore not a priority for campaign visits and money. Meanwhile, twelve of the thirteen smallest states are thought of as safe for either party – only New
Hampshire is regularly a swing state. Additionally, campaigns stopped mounting nationwide electoral efforts in the last few months near/at the ends of the blowout 2008 election, but rather targeted only a handful of battlegrounds.
606:
the popular vote would likely favor the former. However, although the vast majority of the states leaned to the latter candidate in comparison to the entire country, many of them would end up having voted for the loser in greater numbers than did the tipping-point state. The presidential election in 2016 was a notable example, as it featured one of the largest historical disparities between the
33:
768:
projection based on previous election results, opinion polling, political trends, recent developments since the previous election, and any strengths or weaknesses of the particular candidate involved. The swing-state "map" transforms between each election cycle, depending on the candidates and their policies, sometimes dramatically and sometimes subtly.
605:
As many mathematical analysts have noted, however, the state voting in a fashion most similar to that of the nation as a whole is not necessarily the tipping-point. For example, if a candidate wins only a few states but does so by a wide margin, while the other candidate's victories are much closer,
1698:
are ignored, then
Wisconsin was the tipping point in 2016; if they are included, then Donald Trump's loss of 2 EV's from faithless electors means that Pennsylvania is also required for his coalition to reach 270 electoral votes, while Hillary Clinton's loss of 5 EV's does not change that Wisconsin
944:
for determining tipping point states, but including the other states in close contention in recent elections, ranked by margin of victory. In this method, states and DC are ordered by margin of victory, then tabulating which states were required to get to 270+ electoral votes in margin order. The
585:
were decided by a margin of less than five percent. However, none of them were considered the tipping-point state, as Romney would not have been able to defeat Obama even if he had emerged victorious in all of them. Interestingly, Virginia was most in-step with the rest of the country. Virginians
2790:
Electoral college defenders offer a range of arguments, from the openly anti-democratic (direct election equals mob rule), to the nostalgic (we've always done it this way), to the opportunistic (your little state will be ignored! More vote-counting means more controversies! The
Electoral College
925:
arrangement, in which the candidate with the most votes in that state receives all of the state's electoral votes, there is a clear incentive to focus almost exclusively on only a few undecided states. In contrast, many states with large populations such as
California, Texas and New York have in
656:
In 2020, Joe Biden won the popular vote by over 4 percentage points but won the tipping point state of
Pennsylvania by only 1 percent. This shows Donald Trump could win the election even if he lost the popular vote by over 3 percent and would have picked up Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin with a
215:
The expectation was that the candidates would look after the interests of the states with the most electoral votes. However, in practice, most voters tend not to change party allegiance from one election to the next, leading presidential candidates to concentrate their limited time and resources
1677:
If Donald Trump were able to hold onto
Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin, the result would have been a 269–269 electoral tie decided in the House of Representatives. Wisconsin is the tipping point for Biden's coalition; to avoid needing Congress, Trump would have to have won Pennsylvania as well,
223:
Because of the electoral system, the campaigns are less concerned with increasing a candidate's national popular vote, tending instead to concentrate on the popular vote only in those states which will provide the electoral votes it needs to win the election, as many successful candidates have
767:
Presidential campaigns and pundits seek to keep track of the shifting electoral landscape. While swing states in past elections can be determined simply by looking at how close the vote was in each state, determining states likely to be swing states in future elections requires estimation and
465:
in which they receive a plurality. Both of these states have relatively few electoral votes – a total of 4 and 5, respectively. Nebraska has split its votes since 1992, and Maine has done so since 1972. Each state has split its electoral votes only twice since implementation – in 2008, when
739:
and
Wisconsin, with Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin constituting the "Big Five" most likely to decide the Electoral College. In the end, Joe Biden won Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, NE-02, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while
527:, as it gave Reagan the decisive electoral vote. The difference in Michigan was nineteen percentage points, quite similar to Reagan's national margin of eighteen percent. Michigan would have been more relevant to the election results had the election been closer.
907:
The
Electoral College encourages political campaigners to focus most of their efforts on courting voters in swing states. States in which polling shows no clear favorite are usually targeted at a higher rate with campaign visits, television advertising, and
3648:
225:
3668:
486:
States where the election has a close result become less meaningful in landslide elections. Instead, states which vote similarly to the national vote proportions are more likely to appear as the closest states. For example, the states in the
3751:
759:, which is a swing state because it has large populations of Republican-leaning evangelical whites and Democratic-leaning Black voters and urban college-educated professionals, thus campaigns often concentrate on voter turnout.
1782:
Beachler, Donald W.; Bergbower, Matthew L.; Cooper, Chris; Damore, David F.; van Doorn, Bas; Foreman, Sean D.; Gill, Rebecca; Hendriks, Henriët; Hoffmann, Donna (October 29, 2015). Schultz, David; Hecht, Stacey Hunter (eds.).
3673:
3653:
160:
depending on the partisan leaning), as it is generally assumed that one candidate has a base of support from which a sufficient share of the electorate can be drawn without significant investment or effort by the campaign.
3291:
478:, and in 2020, when Nebraska gave four votes to Donald Trump and one to Joe Biden; in 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump won one vote in Maine, while Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden both were awarded three, respectively.
3678:
3663:
172:, candidates often campaign only in competitive states, which is why a select group of states frequently receives a majority of the advertisements and candidate visits. The battlegrounds may change in certain
775:, Hillary Clinton overperformed in educated, suburban states such as Colorado and Virginia compared to past Democratic candidates, while Donald Trump performed above standard Republican expectations in the
3605:
3339:
3855:
779:, such as Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In addition, gradual shifts can occur within states due to changes in demography, geography, or population patterns. For example, many currently
2961:
2514:
3658:
2864:
3785:
3534:
1542:
1484:
1476:
1418:
630:
595:
641:
if the popular vote had been tied, assuming a uniform shift among the battleground states. On the other hand, Clinton would have had to win the popular vote by at least 3 points to win the
3850:
3819:
1358:
1178:
1170:
1162:
1086:
1004:
1265:
1220:
1204:
1078:
1036:
873:
noted that the electoral map is "undergoing a series of changes", with some states moving rightward, other states moving leftward, and two states (Florida, until the 2020 election, and
3746:
3499:
3464:
1244:
1236:
650:
638:
3715:
3539:
3444:
3404:
1558:
1325:
1255:
1194:
1136:
1128:
1112:
1054:
1044:
1020:
586:
voted for Obama by just under 4 points, almost the exact same as the nation. Had the election come out closer, Romney's path to victory would probably have involved also winning
467:
3504:
3494:
3489:
3469:
1550:
1500:
1408:
1400:
1342:
1334:
1285:
1275:
1212:
1104:
555:
3419:
3329:
1679:
1534:
1526:
1492:
1468:
1450:
1442:
1434:
1426:
1376:
1368:
1316:
1305:
591:
539:
3454:
3449:
3319:
2954:
1508:
1350:
1154:
1094:
1070:
1062:
1028:
3804:
3799:
3544:
3509:
3414:
3389:
1983:
1518:
1012:
599:
3736:
3597:
3529:
3479:
3459:
3434:
3424:
3409:
3399:
3384:
3364:
3334:
3324:
3314:
1458:
1392:
1384:
1295:
1228:
1186:
1144:
1120:
410:
However, some states that consistently vote for one party at the presidential level occasionally elect a governor of the opposite party; this is currently the case in
2984:
2227:
3549:
3524:
3429:
3369:
3349:
3344:
3309:
3299:
3829:
3791:
3484:
3439:
3379:
3354:
3304:
3514:
3394:
3359:
2947:
3519:
3474:
3374:
3643:
877:) described as "perennial" swing states. Likewise, an analysis of results of the 2018 midterms indicated that the "battleground states" are changing, with
626:
3731:
156:, especially in competitive elections. Meanwhile, the states that regularly lean to a single party are known as "safe states" (or more specifically as
177:
3280:
3274:
3269:
3264:
3259:
3254:
3249:
3244:
3239:
3234:
3229:
3224:
3219:
3214:
3209:
3204:
3199:
3194:
3189:
3184:
3179:
3174:
3169:
3164:
3159:
3154:
3149:
3144:
3139:
3134:
3129:
3124:
3119:
3114:
3109:
3104:
3099:
3094:
3089:
3084:
3079:
3074:
3069:
3064:
3059:
3054:
3049:
3044:
3039:
3034:
3029:
3024:
3019:
3014:
3009:
3004:
2999:
2994:
2989:
994:
986:
978:
970:
962:
954:
855:
772:
732:
720:
701:
697:
689:
677:
614:
563:
543:
488:
41:
461:. Two electoral votes go to the candidate who wins the plurality of the vote statewide, and a candidate gets an additional electoral vote for each
3824:
2623:
3865:
2751:
2254:
863:
458:
755:, swing because they have many moderate, independent swing voters, and campaigning puts an emphasis on persuading voters. Contrasting this is
2815:
2542:
724:
2705:
2171:
2086:
3582:
2970:
859:
189:
173:
145:
64:
3756:
3572:
3559:
1914:
546:, but triumphed anyway as Indiana's electoral votes were not directly needed for a coalition of 270 votes; the same scenario was with
1792:
642:
607:
500:
220:
towards them or stop states from swinging away from them, and not to spend time or resources in states they expect to win or lose.
169:
2890:
704:. Ohio has gained its reputation as a regular swing state after 1980, and did not vote against the winner between 1960 and 2020.
2934:
2908:
2457:
780:
646:
504:
141:
137:
77:
60:
2282:
3630:
2835:
902:
193:
1949:
81:
2810:(Second ed.). New Haven, Connecticut and London, England: Yale University Press. pp. 1, 37, 61, 176–177, 193–194.
2005:
2486:
3741:
3690:
3577:
2928:
2916:
2869:
2368:
542:
inaccurately portrays its status as a battleground. Obama lost
Indiana by more than ten percentage points in the closer
320:
858:
was (and is still as of 2020) also considered competitive. However, this projection was not specific to any particular
2569:
2597:
2437:
2200:
1756:
426:, which currently have Democratic governors. Even in presidential election years, voters may split presidential and
3766:
2404:
1839:
1737:
384:
364:
157:
212:
system, where the candidate who wins the most popular votes in a state wins all of that state's electoral votes.
1717:
2878:
2032:
613:
Additionally, this "split" in votes was much larger in both directions than in previous elections, such as the
2900:
2728:
2574:
922:
209:
2201:"Trump will be the 4th president to win the Electoral College after getting fewer votes than his opponent"
462:
272:
2058:
708:
2774:
2311:
1889:
602:, as these states had comparable margins to Colorado, and had been battlegrounds during the election.
2491:
886:
823:
756:
454:
629:
won the popular vote by over 2 percentage points. This meant that Donald Trump would have picked up
3860:
3776:
3700:
3695:
3685:
3610:
2648:
2519:
2462:
2114:
1813:
1727:
1694:
The 2016 election had two possible tipping point states, depending on how they are calculated. If
1678:
although Trump would have been favored in the House due to the tie-breaking rules specified in the
935:
520:
197:
37:
2791:
protects hurricane victims!). But none of those arguments overcome this one: One person, one vote.
2442:
2390:
1954:
396:
376:
153:
2624:"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » The Electoral College: Pennsylvania Moves Toward Clinton"
2140:
707:
In fact, only three people have won the presidential election without winning Ohio since 1900:
231:
In past electoral results, Republican candidates would have expected to easily win most of the
3710:
3705:
3615:
2811:
2412:
1788:
1695:
912:
efforts by party organizers and debates. According to Katrina vanden Heuvel, a journalist for
516:
117:
3781:
3761:
2895:
909:
324:
217:
165:
149:
2364:
2873:
2840:
2681:
2676:
2653:
2598:"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » The Electoral College: The Only Thing That Matters"
2547:
2338:
2316:
2287:
2259:
2176:
2145:
2091:
2063:
2010:
1757:"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » The Electoral College: The Only Thing That Matters"
870:
748:
712:
232:
1864:
2939:
2373:
1919:
1814:"What Are Swing States and How Did They Become a Key Factor in US Elections? – HISTORY"
1732:
874:
847:
622:
567:
508:
499:. A campaign strategy centered on them, however, would not have been meaningful in the
443:
300:
2920:
2386:
1840:"A recent voting history of the 15 Battleground states – National Constitution Center"
3844:
3620:
3587:
3567:
2205:
1722:
811:
802:
According to a pre-election 2016 analysis, the thirteen most competitive states were
796:
752:
747:
Campaign strategies are not universal in swing states. Statistical analytics website
693:
512:
496:
435:
427:
352:
312:
67:
1984:"As Nation and Parties Change, Republicans Are at an Electoral College Disadvantage"
807:
741:
531:
475:
447:
356:
236:
84:
17:
885:
becoming less competitive and more Democratic and Republican, respectively, while
660:
Swing states have generally changed over time. For instance, the swing states of
1979:
1945:
941:
665:
625:
won the Electoral College by only 5 votes. In contrast, 2016 Democratic nominee
559:
551:
471:
360:
344:
280:
248:
918:, "four out of five" voters in the national election are "absolutely ignored".
869:
Ten weeks before the 2020 presidential election, statistical analytics website
453:
In Maine and Nebraska, the apportionment of electoral votes parallels that for
1712:
914:
673:
392:
368:
328:
2416:
2232:
815:
803:
792:
776:
728:
716:
587:
566:, indicating its GOP trend. Other lightly Republican leaning states such as
492:
439:
404:
292:
284:
44:, relative to the national popular vote margin (4.5% in favor of Joe Biden).
949:
Swing states and tipping point states in presidential elections, 2000–2020
511:
required victories in many more states than Massachusetts, and Republican
32:
878:
843:
835:
827:
788:
784:
681:
582:
547:
524:
419:
415:
400:
388:
340:
336:
332:
304:
296:
288:
268:
264:
205:
56:
2935:
The Bush campaign memo detailing its look at the swing states (PDF file)
2750:
Sabato, Larry J.; Kondik, Kyle; Coleman, J. Miles (September 10, 2020).
2255:"Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else"
2543:"New Hampshire Is Tiny And Pretty Weird. That Could Help Maggie Hassan"
890:
831:
819:
669:
618:
571:
535:
431:
411:
348:
276:
252:
244:
192:, each state is free to decide the method by which its electors to the
2883:
621:
won the popular vote by less than 1 percent, while incoming president
839:
634:
423:
380:
372:
316:
260:
2172:"The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing"
2515:"The 2020 electoral map could be the smallest in years. Here's why"
851:
736:
685:
308:
240:
201:
2087:"Election Update: North Carolina Is Becoming A Problem For Trump"
446:
elected a Democratic governor despite also voting for Republican
2929:
How close were U.S. Presidential Elections? – Influential States
2458:"How Georgia became a swing state for the first time in decades"
882:
661:
578:
256:
2943:
176:
and may be reflected in overall polling, demographics, and the
111: Partisan lean of more than 10 points towards Donald Trump
105: Partisan lean of more than 10 points toward Kamala Harris
2033:"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » SENATE 2016: FLIP FLOP"
735:, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
27:
US state where no party for election has overwhelming support
2752:"The Post-Labor Day Sprint, Part Two: The Electoral College"
144:
candidate in a statewide election, most often referring to
93: Partisan lean of 5 to 10 points toward Kamala Harris
2283:"Clinton's Leading In Exactly The States She Needs To Win"
744:
won ME-02, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.
136:) is any state that could reasonably be won by either the
99: Partisan lean of 5 to 10 points towards Donald Trump
2706:"New election map: Ohio, Colorado no longer swing states"
940:
This is a chart of swing states using the methodology of
2836:"Donald Trump Had A Superior Electoral College Strategy"
216:
campaigning in those states that they believe they can
3856:
Political party strength in the United States by state
2166:
2164:
1699:
remains the tipping point for her potential coalition.
438:, which elected Republican governors even as Democrat
1844:
National Constitution Center – constitutioncenter.org
2704:
Chinni, Dante; Bronston, Sally (November 18, 2018).
152:
in votes. These states are usually targeted by both
3724:
3649:
elections in which the winner lost the popular vote
3629:
3596:
3558:
3290:
2977:
2727:Coleman, J. Miles; Francis, Niles (July 9, 2020).
1915:"Biden Wins Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District"
574:were more plausible Democratic pick-ups in 2012.
2677:"How The 2020 Election Changed The Electoral Map"
2228:"Clinton's popular vote lead surpasses 2 million"
862:, and assumed similar levels of support for both
76: Partisan lean of under 5 points toward the
3851:United States presidential elections terminology
2801:
2799:
577:In 2012, the states of North Carolina, Florida,
2365:Daley Remembered as Last of the Big-City Bosses
1865:"State Electoral Vote History: 1900 to Present"
418:which have Republican governors, as well as in
1974:
1972:
1785:Presidential Swing States: Why Only Ten Matter
799:, had been battlegrounds as recently as 2004.
2955:
8:
2808:Why the Electoral College is Bad for America
676:and New York were key to the outcome of the
198:voting power in the Electoral College system
2829:
2827:
2773:vanden Heuvel, Katrina (November 7, 2012).
2487:"How Dem insiders rank the 2020 contenders"
2438:"Presidential Election Results: Biden Wins"
2387:Trolling the Campuses for Swing-State Votes
1890:"2020 Governor Election Results – 270toWin"
2962:
2948:
2940:
2570:"Battleground States Poll – June 21, 2004"
947:
168:method most states use to determine their
1950:"Arizona Is (Probably) Not a Swing State"
1940:
1938:
1690:
1688:
3664:electoral vote changes between elections
2775:"It's Time to End the Electoral College"
2006:"2016 Senate Forecast | FiveThirtyEight"
719:. Areas considered battlegrounds in the
649:nominee, won the tipping-point state of
42:2020 United States presidential election
31:
2884:Swing State feature documentary project
1748:
1670:
893:were slowly turning into swing states.
2403:Ellenberg, Jordan (October 25, 2004).
2339:"HarpWeek | Elections | 1888 Overview"
751:notes that some swing states, such as
723:were Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa,
200:, every state, with the exceptions of
856:Nebraska's 2nd congressional district
733:Nebraska's 2nd congressional district
7:
2971:United States presidential elections
2485:Weaver, Dustin (November 24, 2017).
1808:
1806:
1804:
700:, and Ohio was important during the
3583:South Carolina presidential primary
2889:Suellentrop, Chris (June 4, 2004).
2004:Silver, Nate (September 20, 2016).
903:Criticisms of the Electoral College
617:. In that election, Vice President
554:narrowly won by 4,000 votes in the
430:tickets. In 2020, this occurred in
3659:Electoral College results by state
3573:New Hampshire presidential primary
2903:from the original on June 8, 2004.
2059:"The Electoral College Blind Spot"
725:Maine's 2nd congressional district
25:
3796:Vice presidential confirmations:
2834:Silver, Nate (February 6, 2017).
2649:"Is The Electoral Map Changing?"
2115:"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball"
657:uniform shift among the states.
196:will be chosen. To increase its
63:presidential nominee (incumbent
2806:Edwards III, George C. (2011).
2312:"The End Of A Republican Party"
2310:Malone, Clare (July 18, 2016).
688:were key to the outcome of the
491:with the tightest results were
228:but won the electoral college.
190:American presidential elections
3606:List of nominating conventions
2865:The Critical 2012 Swing States
2541:Silver, Nate (July 22, 2022).
470:gave four votes to Republican
158:"red states" and "blue states"
1:
3866:Centrism in the United States
2513:Balz, Dan (August 31, 2019).
319:. Democrats usually take the
80:presidential nominee (former
59:of under 5 points toward the
3691:Certificate of ascertainment
3578:Nevada presidential caucuses
2917:George Washington University
2879:Swing State Ohio Documentary
3737:Historical election polling
3882:
3767:Red states and blue states
2405:"Game Theory for Swingers"
1738:Red states and blue states
933:
900:
515:still would have won by a
3815:
3669:electoral vote recipients
3654:Electoral College margins
2729:"States of Play: Georgia"
696:were key in deciding the
653:by less than 1 percent.
2870:Battleground States 2008
2141:"The Real Story Of 2016"
921:Since most states use a
763:Determining swing states
3830:Gubernatorial elections
2754:. Sabato's Crystal Ball
2731:. Sabato's Crystal Ball
2575:The Wall Street Journal
930:Swing states by results
562:by nearly 10 points in
442:won both states, while
3674:popular votes received
3598:Nominating conventions
3560:Primaries and caucuses
2343:elections.harpweek.com
474:, and one to Democrat
463:congressional district
146:presidential elections
113:
2909:"Battleground states"
2628:centerforpolitics.org
2602:centerforpolitics.org
2119:centerforpolitics.org
2037:centerforpolitics.org
1761:centerforpolitics.org
709:Franklin D. Roosevelt
534:'s narrow victory in
226:lost the popular vote
170:presidential electors
154:major-party campaigns
35:
3757:Presidential debates
3679:popular-vote margins
3340:District of Columbia
2931:" – Michael Sheppard
2291:. September 22, 2016
1982:(November 8, 2012).
1718:Blue wall (politics)
771:For example, in the
3777:Tipping-point state
3747:Major party tickets
3701:Contingent election
3696:Certificate of vote
3686:Electoral Count Act
3611:Brokered convention
2913:Democracy in Action
2520:The Washington Post
2463:The Washington Post
2446:. November 3, 2020.
2263:. November 11, 2016
2121:. November 17, 2016
1787:. Lexington Books.
1728:Missouri bellwether
950:
936:Tipping-point state
610:and popular vote.
521:tipping-point state
18:Battleground states
3752:Major party losers
3292:Elections by state
2923:on March 13, 2017.
2891:"The Swing States"
2685:. December 8, 2020
2466:. November 8, 2020
2443:The New York Times
2393:", October 2, 2004
2391:The New York Times
2389:, Julie Salamon, "
2180:. November 1, 2016
2149:. January 19, 2017
2067:. January 23, 2017
1955:The New York Times
1948:(April 27, 2012).
1923:. November 4, 2020
1696:faithless electors
948:
482:Competitive states
323:states, including
178:ideological appeal
126:battleground state
114:
3838:
3837:
3711:Unpledged elector
3706:Faithless elector
3631:Electoral College
3616:Convention bounce
2978:Elections by year
2817:978-0-300-16649-1
2657:. August 26, 2020
2377:, April 21, 2005.
2095:. October 5, 2016
1820:. October 7, 2020
1680:Twelfth Amendment
1667:
1666:
643:Electoral College
608:Electoral College
558:, but was won by
501:Electoral College
395:, as well as the
194:Electoral College
180:of the nominees.
118:American politics
40:by margin in the
16:(Redirected from
3873:
3825:Senate elections
3782:Election recount
3762:October surprise
3732:Campaign slogans
3634:and popular vote
2964:
2957:
2950:
2941:
2924:
2919:. Archived from
2904:
2853:
2852:
2850:
2848:
2831:
2822:
2821:
2803:
2794:
2793:
2787:
2785:
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2662:
2645:
2639:
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2634:
2620:
2614:
2613:
2611:
2609:
2604:. March 31, 2016
2594:
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2102:
2100:
2083:
2077:
2076:
2074:
2072:
2055:
2049:
2048:
2046:
2044:
2039:. September 2016
2029:
2023:
2022:
2020:
2018:
2001:
1995:
1994:
1992:
1990:
1976:
1967:
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1964:
1962:
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1779:
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1772:
1770:
1768:
1763:. March 31, 2016
1753:
1700:
1692:
1683:
1675:
951:
923:winner-takes-all
910:get out the vote
645:, as Trump, the
208:, has adopted a
110:
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75:
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21:
3881:
3880:
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3792:Guam straw poll
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3286:
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2907:
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2874:Washington Post
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2578:. June 21, 2004
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2064:FiveThirtyEight
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2014:
2011:FiveThirtyEight
2003:
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871:FiveThirtyEight
765:
749:FiveThirtyEight
713:John F. Kennedy
627:Hillary Clinton
519:. Instead, the
484:
459:representatives
347:, particularly
233:mountain states
210:winner-take-all
186:
174:election cycles
166:winner-take-all
124:(also known as
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875:North Carolina
860:election cycle
848:North Carolina
764:
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692:, Florida and
623:George W. Bush
568:North Carolina
523:that year was
509:Walter Mondale
483:
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444:North Carolina
301:South Carolina
271:, most of the
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65:vice president
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1749:
1743:
1739:
1736:
1734:
1731:
1729:
1726:
1724:
1723:Marginal seat
1721:
1719:
1716:
1714:
1711:
1710:
1706:
1697:
1691:
1689:
1685:
1681:
1674:
1671:
1662:
1660:
1657:
1654:
1652:
1649:
1646:
1644:
1641:
1638:
1636:
1633:
1630:
1628:
1625:
1622:
1620:
1617:
1616:
1612:
1610:
1607:
1604:
1602:
1599:
1596:
1594:
1591:
1588:
1586:
1583:
1580:
1578:
1575:
1572:
1570:
1567:
1566:
1562:
1560:
1557:
1554:
1552:
1549:
1546:
1544:
1541:
1538:
1536:
1533:
1530:
1528:
1525:
1522:
1520:
1517:
1516:
1512:
1510:
1507:
1504:
1502:
1499:
1496:
1494:
1491:
1488:
1486:
1483:
1480:
1478:
1475:
1472:
1470:
1467:
1466:
1462:
1460:
1457:
1454:
1452:
1449:
1446:
1444:
1441:
1438:
1436:
1433:
1430:
1428:
1425:
1422:
1420:
1417:
1416:
1412:
1410:
1407:
1404:
1402:
1399:
1396:
1394:
1391:
1388:
1386:
1383:
1380:
1378:
1375:
1372:
1370:
1367:
1366:
1362:
1360:
1359:New Hampshire
1357:
1354:
1352:
1349:
1346:
1344:
1341:
1338:
1336:
1333:
1330:
1328:
1327:
1323:
1320:
1318:
1315:
1314:
1310:
1308:
1307:
1303:
1300:
1298:
1297:
1293:
1290:
1288:
1287:
1283:
1280:
1278:
1277:
1273:
1270:
1268:
1267:
1263:
1260:
1258:
1257:
1253:
1252:
1248:
1246:
1243:
1240:
1238:
1235:
1232:
1230:
1227:
1224:
1222:
1219:
1216:
1214:
1211:
1208:
1206:
1203:
1202:
1198:
1196:
1193:
1190:
1188:
1185:
1182:
1180:
1179:New Hampshire
1177:
1174:
1172:
1171:New Hampshire
1169:
1166:
1164:
1163:New Hampshire
1161:
1158:
1156:
1153:
1152:
1148:
1146:
1143:
1140:
1138:
1135:
1132:
1130:
1127:
1124:
1122:
1119:
1116:
1114:
1111:
1108:
1106:
1103:
1102:
1098:
1096:
1093:
1090:
1088:
1087:New Hampshire
1085:
1082:
1080:
1077:
1074:
1072:
1069:
1066:
1064:
1061:
1058:
1056:
1053:
1052:
1048:
1046:
1043:
1040:
1038:
1035:
1032:
1030:
1027:
1024:
1022:
1019:
1016:
1014:
1011:
1008:
1006:
1005:New Hampshire
1003:
1002:
998:
996:
995:2000 election
993:
990:
988:
987:2004 election
985:
982:
980:
979:2008 election
977:
974:
972:
971:2012 election
969:
966:
964:
963:2016 election
961:
958:
956:
955:2020 election
953:
952:
946:
943:
937:
929:
927:
924:
919:
917:
916:
911:
904:
896:
894:
892:
888:
884:
880:
876:
872:
867:
865:
861:
857:
853:
849:
845:
841:
837:
833:
829:
825:
821:
817:
813:
812:New Hampshire
809:
805:
800:
798:
797:West Virginia
794:
790:
786:
783:states, like
782:
778:
774:
773:2016 election
769:
762:
760:
758:
754:
753:New Hampshire
750:
745:
743:
738:
734:
730:
726:
722:
721:2020 election
718:
714:
710:
705:
703:
702:2004 election
699:
698:2000 election
695:
694:New Hampshire
691:
690:1960 election
687:
683:
679:
678:1888 election
675:
671:
667:
663:
658:
654:
652:
648:
644:
640:
636:
632:
631:New Hampshire
628:
624:
620:
616:
615:2000 election
611:
609:
603:
601:
597:
596:New Hampshire
593:
589:
584:
580:
575:
573:
569:
565:
564:2012 election
561:
557:
556:2008 election
553:
549:
545:
544:2012 election
541:
540:2008 election
537:
533:
528:
526:
522:
518:
514:
513:Ronald Reagan
510:
506:
502:
498:
497:Massachusetts
494:
490:
489:1984 election
481:
479:
477:
473:
469:
464:
460:
456:
455:U.S. senators
451:
449:
445:
441:
437:
436:New Hampshire
433:
429:
428:gubernatorial
425:
421:
417:
413:
408:
406:
402:
398:
394:
390:
386:
382:
378:
374:
370:
366:
362:
358:
354:
353:Massachusetts
350:
346:
342:
338:
334:
330:
326:
322:
318:
315:, as well as
314:
313:West Virginia
310:
306:
302:
298:
294:
290:
286:
282:
278:
274:
270:
266:
262:
258:
254:
250:
246:
242:
238:
234:
229:
227:
221:
219:
213:
211:
207:
203:
199:
195:
191:
183:
181:
179:
175:
171:
167:
162:
159:
155:
151:
147:
143:
139:
135:
131:
130:toss-up state
127:
123:
119:
86:
83:
79:
69:
68:Kamala Harris
66:
62:
58:
57:Partisan lean
49:
43:
39:
34:
30:
19:
3771:
3742:Election Day
3505:South Dakota
3495:Rhode Island
3490:Pennsylvania
3470:North Dakota
3279:
2921:the original
2912:
2894:
2847:February 26,
2845:. Retrieved
2839:
2807:
2789:
2782:. Retrieved
2778:
2768:
2758:November 19,
2756:. Retrieved
2745:
2735:November 19,
2733:. Retrieved
2722:
2712:November 19,
2710:. Retrieved
2699:
2687:. Retrieved
2680:
2671:
2661:September 1,
2659:. Retrieved
2652:
2643:
2631:. Retrieved
2627:
2618:
2606:. Retrieved
2601:
2592:
2580:. Retrieved
2573:
2564:
2552:. Retrieved
2546:
2536:
2524:. Retrieved
2518:
2508:
2496:. Retrieved
2490:
2480:
2468:. Retrieved
2461:
2452:
2441:
2432:
2422:December 20,
2420:. Retrieved
2408:
2398:
2382:
2372:
2359:
2349:December 20,
2347:. Retrieved
2342:
2333:
2321:. Retrieved
2315:
2305:
2293:. Retrieved
2286:
2277:
2265:. Retrieved
2258:
2249:
2237:. Retrieved
2231:
2222:
2210:. Retrieved
2204:
2194:
2182:. Retrieved
2175:
2151:. Retrieved
2144:
2135:
2123:. Retrieved
2118:
2109:
2097:. Retrieved
2090:
2081:
2069:. Retrieved
2062:
2053:
2041:. Retrieved
2036:
2027:
2015:. Retrieved
2009:
1999:
1987:. Retrieved
1980:Silver, Nate
1959:. Retrieved
1953:
1946:Silver, Nate
1925:. Retrieved
1918:
1909:
1897:. Retrieved
1894:270toWin.com
1893:
1884:
1872:. Retrieved
1869:270toWin.com
1868:
1859:
1847:. Retrieved
1843:
1834:
1822:. Retrieved
1817:
1784:
1777:
1765:. Retrieved
1760:
1751:
1673:
1658:
1650:
1642:
1634:
1626:
1618:
1608:
1600:
1592:
1584:
1576:
1568:
1324:
1304:
1294:
1284:
1274:
1266:Pennsylvania
1264:
1254:
1221:Pennsylvania
1205:Pennsylvania
1079:Pennsylvania
1037:Pennsylvania
939:
920:
913:
906:
868:
808:Pennsylvania
801:
770:
766:
746:
742:Donald Trump
727:, Michigan,
706:
680:. Likewise,
659:
655:
612:
604:
576:
532:Barack Obama
529:
517:large margin
485:
476:Barack Obama
452:
448:Donald Trump
409:
385:Southwestern
357:Rhode Island
321:Mid-Atlantic
275:, including
237:Great Plains
230:
222:
214:
187:
163:
134:purple state
133:
129:
125:
121:
115:
85:Donald Trump
47:
29:
3772:Swing state
3420:Mississippi
3330:Connecticut
2784:November 8,
2689:October 11,
2498:January 13,
2345:. p. 4
2323:January 27,
2295:January 27,
2267:January 27,
2239:January 27,
2212:January 27,
2184:January 27,
2153:January 27,
2125:January 27,
2099:January 27,
2071:January 27,
2043:January 27,
2017:November 6,
1927:December 1,
1874:October 24,
1849:October 24,
1824:October 24,
1767:January 27,
942:Nate Silver
666:Connecticut
560:Mitt Romney
552:John McCain
530:Similarly,
472:John McCain
397:Great Lakes
361:Connecticut
345:New England
281:Mississippi
249:the Dakotas
164:Due to the
122:swing state
48:Map Legend:
3861:Psephology
3845:Categories
3535:Washington
3455:New Mexico
3450:New Jersey
3320:California
2779:The Nation
2708:. NBC News
2526:January 5,
2470:January 7,
1744:References
1713:Bellwether
1245:New Mexico
1237:New Mexico
934:See also:
915:The Nation
781:Republican
674:New Jersey
647:Republican
505:Democratic
399:states of
393:New Mexico
387:states of
383:, and the
377:Washington
369:California
367:states of
365:West Coast
329:New Jersey
239:, such as
184:Background
142:Republican
138:Democratic
78:Republican
61:Democratic
3545:Wisconsin
3510:Tennessee
3415:Minnesota
3390:Louisiana
2417:1091-2339
2233:USA Today
1920:Bloomberg
1559:Tennessee
1326:Wisconsin
1256:Wisconsin
1195:Wisconsin
1137:Wisconsin
1129:Minnesota
1113:Minnesota
1055:Minnesota
1045:Minnesota
1021:Wisconsin
897:Criticism
816:Minnesota
804:Wisconsin
793:Tennessee
777:Rust Belt
729:Minnesota
717:Joe Biden
651:Wisconsin
639:Minnesota
588:Wisconsin
493:Minnesota
440:Joe Biden
405:Minnesota
293:Tennessee
285:Louisiana
82:president
3640:Results
3530:Virginia
3480:Oklahoma
3460:New York
3435:Nebraska
3425:Missouri
3410:Michigan
3400:Maryland
3385:Kentucky
3365:Illinois
3335:Delaware
3325:Colorado
3315:Arkansas
2901:Archived
2872:via the
2554:July 31,
2492:The Hill
1707:See also
1609:National
1601:National
1593:National
1585:National
1577:National
1569:National
1551:Virginia
1501:Missouri
1409:Missouri
1401:Colorado
1343:Virginia
1335:Virginia
1286:Colorado
1276:Colorado
1213:Michigan
1105:Michigan
879:Colorado
844:Colorado
836:Michigan
828:Virginia
789:Missouri
785:Arkansas
682:Illinois
583:Virginia
550:, where
548:Missouri
525:Michigan
507:nominee
468:Nebraska
420:Kentucky
416:Virginia
401:Illinois
389:Colorado
341:Delaware
337:Virginia
333:Maryland
325:New York
305:Missouri
297:Kentucky
289:Arkansas
269:Nebraska
265:Oklahoma
206:Nebraska
3725:Related
3644:summary
3550:Wyoming
3525:Vermont
3430:Montana
3370:Indiana
3350:Georgia
3345:Florida
3310:Arizona
3300:Alabama
2608:May 21,
2582:July 5,
1989:June 6,
1961:June 6,
1899:May 11,
1663:0.53%R
1613:0.52%D
1563:3.86%R
1535:Georgia
1527:Georgia
1513:3.55%R
1493:Indiana
1469:Florida
1463:3.51%R
1451:Florida
1443:Florida
1435:Florida
1427:Arizona
1413:3.34%R
1377:Florida
1369:Georgia
1363:1.27%R
1317:Arizona
1311:0.01%R
1306:Florida
1249:0.06%D
1199:0.22%D
1149:0.31%D
1133:10.24%D
1099:0.44%D
1083:10.32%D
1049:2.40%D
1033:12.49%D
999:Margin
891:Arizona
887:Georgia
864:parties
832:Florida
824:Georgia
820:Arizona
757:Georgia
670:Indiana
619:Al Gore
572:Arizona
538:in the
536:Indiana
432:Vermont
412:Vermont
349:Vermont
277:Alabama
253:Montana
245:Wyoming
148:, by a
36:Map of
3485:Oregon
3440:Nevada
3380:Kansas
3355:Hawaii
3305:Alaska
2814:
2415:
1791:
1655:0.35%D
1647:1.68%D
1639:1.51%D
1631:2.87%R
1623:3.82%R
1605:2.46%R
1597:7.27%D
1589:3.86%D
1581:2.10%D
1573:4.45%D
1555:8.20%R
1547:0.33%D
1539:7.82%R
1531:5.13%R
1523:5.58%R
1509:Nevada
1505:7.20%R
1497:1.03%D
1489:2.04%R
1481:3.66%R
1473:3.36%R
1455:5.01%R
1447:2.82%D
1439:0.88%D
1431:3.55%R
1423:1.35%R
1405:4.67%R
1397:4.59%D
1389:2.98%D
1381:1.20%R
1373:0.24%D
1355:2.59%R
1351:Nevada
1347:6.30%D
1339:3.88%D
1331:0.77%R
1321:0.31%D
1301:2.11%R
1291:8.95%D
1281:5.36%D
1271:0.72%R
1261:0.63%D
1241:0.79%R
1233:9.53%D
1225:5.38%D
1217:0.23%R
1209:1.16%D
1191:0.67%R
1183:9.61%D
1175:5.58%D
1167:0.37%D
1159:2.39%D
1155:Nevada
1141:0.38%D
1125:5.81%D
1117:1.52%D
1109:2.78%D
1095:Oregon
1091:1.37%D
1075:6.68%D
1071:Nevada
1067:2.42%D
1063:Nevada
1059:7.11%D
1041:2.50%D
1029:Nevada
1025:6.94%D
1017:2.96%D
1009:7.35%D
991:Margin
983:Margin
975:Margin
967:Margin
959:Margin
850:, and
840:Nevada
795:, and
715:, and
637:, and
635:Nevada
592:Nevada
581:, and
424:Kansas
381:Hawaii
373:Oregon
363:, the
359:, and
339:, and
317:Alaska
311:, and
267:, and
261:Kansas
109:
103:
97:
91:
74:
55:
53:
38:states
3515:Texas
3395:Maine
3360:Idaho
2896:Slate
2409:Slate
1519:Texas
1013:Maine
852:Maine
737:Texas
686:Texas
598:, or
503:, as
309:Texas
273:South
241:Idaho
218:swing
202:Maine
150:swing
132:, or
3805:1974
3800:1973
3786:2000
3520:Utah
3475:Ohio
3375:Iowa
3281:2024
3275:2020
3270:2016
3265:2012
3260:2008
3255:2004
3250:2000
3245:1996
3240:1992
3235:1988
3230:1984
3225:1980
3220:1976
3215:1972
3210:1968
3205:1964
3200:1960
3195:1956
3190:1952
3185:1948
3180:1944
3175:1940
3170:1936
3165:1932
3160:1928
3155:1924
3150:1920
3145:1916
3140:1912
3135:1908
3130:1904
3125:1900
3120:1896
3115:1892
3110:1888
3105:1884
3100:1880
3095:1876
3090:1872
3085:1868
3080:1864
3075:1860
3070:1856
3065:1852
3060:1848
3055:1844
3050:1840
3045:1836
3040:1832
3035:1828
3030:1824
3025:1820
3020:1816
3015:1812
3010:1808
3005:1804
3000:1800
2995:1796
2990:1792
2985:1788
2849:2019
2812:ISBN
2786:2012
2760:2020
2737:2020
2714:2020
2691:2022
2663:2020
2635:2015
2610:2016
2584:2017
2556:2022
2528:2019
2500:2018
2472:2021
2424:2023
2413:ISSN
2351:2023
2325:2017
2297:2017
2269:2017
2241:2017
2214:2017
2186:2017
2155:2017
2127:2017
2101:2017
2073:2017
2045:2017
2019:2016
1991:2013
1963:2013
1929:2020
1901:2022
1876:2020
1851:2020
1826:2020
1789:ISBN
1769:2017
1659:Bias
1651:Bias
1643:Bias
1635:Bias
1627:Bias
1619:Bias
1459:Ohio
1393:Ohio
1385:Ohio
1296:Ohio
1229:Iowa
1187:Iowa
1145:Iowa
1121:Iowa
889:and
883:Ohio
881:and
684:and
662:Ohio
600:Iowa
579:Ohio
570:and
495:and
457:and
434:and
422:and
414:and
403:and
391:and
257:Utah
235:and
204:and
120:, a
2367:",
2206:Vox
188:In
140:or
116:In
3847::
2915:.
2911:.
2899:.
2893:.
2838:.
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2798:^
2788:.
2777:.
2679:.
2651:.
2626:.
2600:.
2572:.
2545:.
2517:.
2489:.
2460:.
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2407:.
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2341:.
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2257:.
2230:.
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2163:^
2143:.
2117:.
2089:.
2061:.
2035:.
2008:.
1971:^
1952:.
1937:^
1917:.
1892:.
1867:.
1842:.
1816:.
1803:^
1759:.
1687:^
866:.
854:.
846:,
842:,
838:,
834:,
830:,
826:,
822:,
818:,
814:,
810:,
806:,
791:,
787:,
731:,
711:,
672:,
668:,
664:,
633:,
594:,
590:,
450:.
407:.
379:,
375:,
371:,
355:,
351:,
343:,
335:,
331:,
327:,
307:,
303:,
299:,
295:,
291:,
287:,
283:,
279:,
263:,
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247:,
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2103:.
2075:.
2047:.
2021:.
1993:.
1965:.
1931:.
1903:.
1878:.
1853:.
1828:.
1797:.
1771:.
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87:)
70:)
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Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Additional terms may apply.
