Knowledge (XXG)

720: 652:'s Department of Government, which sought to determine whether the Bradley effect theory was valid, and whether an analogous phenomenon might be observed in races between a female candidate and a male candidate. Hopkins analyzed data from 133 elections between 1989 and 2006, compared the results of those elections to the corresponding pre-election poll numbers, and considered some of the alternate explanations which have been offered for any discrepancies therein. The study concluded finally that the Bradley effect was a real phenomenon, amounting to a median gap of 3.1 percentage points before 1996, but that it was likely not the sole factor in those discrepancies, and further that it had ceased to manifest itself at all by 1996. The study also suggested a connection between the Bradley effect and the level of racial rhetoric exhibited in the discussion of the political issues of the day. It asserted that the timing of the disappearance of the Bradley effect coincided with that of a decrease in such rhetoric in American politics over such potentially racially charged issues as crime and 2627:"So how did she do it? How did Hillary Clinton defy Barack Obama's double-digit lead in the New Hampshire polls and pull out a victory yesterday? Hindsight being 20/20, we can now see that she had a few things going for her. ...The Bradley Effect. Named for Tom Bradley, the Los Angeles mayor who narrowly lost the 1982 race for California governor despite a lead in the polls, this is the tendency of black candidates to under-perform their poll numbers. Whether because of closet racism or a more innocent reluctance to appear politically incorrect, a statistically significant number of voters often tell pollsters they'll vote for a black candidate, but turn around and vote for a white opponent in the privacy of the ballot box. The effect seems to have diminished in recent election cycles, but may have played a role in New Hampshire." 2190:"Poorer, less well-educated white people refuse surveys more often than affluent, better-educated whites. Polls generally adjust their samples for this tendency. But here's the problem: these whites who do not respond to surveys tend to have more unfavorable views of blacks than respondents who do the interviews. I’ve experienced this myself. In 1989, as a Gallup pollster, I overestimated the support for David Dinkins in his first race for New York City mayor against Rudolph Giuliani; Mr. Dinkins was elected, but with a two percentage point margin of victory, not the 15 I had predicted. I concluded, eventually, that I got it wrong not so much because respondents were lying to our interviewers but because poorer, less well-educated voters were less likely to agree to answer our questions. That was a decisive factor in my miscall." 192: 628: 2323:"Private, daily tracking polls showed that, with a retooled campaign, Mr. Deukmejian methodically closed the gap. On the Sunday night before the day of the election—usually the last day of tracking polls the campaign will pay for—Mr. Deukmejian had closed to less than two percentage points. The campaign polled Monday night, too. It showed Mr. Deukmejian less than 1% behind. Private pollster Lawrence Research predicted to the campaign a razor-thin victory—exactly what happened. The public polls stopped polling too soon, missing the Deukmejian surge. Most important, they ignored the absentee ballot. Mr. Deukmejian's polling asked if people had voted absentee; other polls, including the exit polls, did not." 2170:"In 1989, nobody saw it coming save Paul Goldman, Wilder's longtime political Svengali, and Wilder – now Richmond's mayor – himself. Thanks in part to advice from campaign pollster Michael Donilon, who went on to advise John Kerry's 2004 bid for the White House, Goldman assumed that anything short of a definitive commitment of support from a white poll respondent couldn't be trusted and weighted his poll's statistical model accordingly. His poll indicated a virtual tossup, putting Wilder's chances at 50–50. ... 'This was a historic campaign,' Goldman says. 'Everybody was talking about it – race, race, race – so you give whatever answer's the socially acceptable one.'" 531: 169:, a senior strategist and day-to-day tactician in Deukmejian's 1982 campaign, has noted that Field's final pre-election poll was badly timed, since it was taken over the weekend, and most late polls failed to register a surge in support for Deukmejian in the campaign's final two weeks. In addition, the exit polling failed to consider absentee balloting in an election which saw an "unprecedented wave of absentee voters" organized on Deukmejian's behalf. In short, Khachigian argues, the "Bradley effect" was simply an attempt to come up with an excuse for what was really the result of flawed opinion polling practices. 1098:"Writing in The Polling Report, Mr. Brodnitz said the race of the interviewer was not a factor in their polling in 2006. Mr. Brodnitz said that problems in the final pre-election public polls had nothing to do with race, but were caused by methodology. Brodnitz contends that the public polling in the Ford race and perhaps the earlier errors in races with black candidates can be attributed in part to polling not taking full account of the types of voters who make their decisions very late in campaigns. He said those voters tended to be older married white women who were either political moderates or conservatives." 1799:"You might chalk it up to the "Wilder Effect," in which white voters tell pollsters they're going to vote for a minority candidate, but actually vote for the white one. If that were the case, though, Jindal's poll numbers would have held firm during the last week, and he would have received a shock on election day. In fact, his numbers collapsed steadily in the last week of the campaign, when Blanco's powerful commercial (featuring a Republican doctor in a wheelchair saying he was voting Blanco because Jindal is a heartless technocrat) began running in the state, and went unanswered by the Jindal camp. " 1234: 620: 2580:, professor of political science at Princeton University in New Jersey, said black voters don't trust whites who tell pollsters they would vote for a black candidate. She noted the 1989 Virginia gubernatorial campaign of L. Douglas Wilder, now the mayor of Richmond. Mr. Wilder had been leading by double digits in polls but won the election by fewer than 7,000 votes in the gubernatorial election. "So even getting white voters to say to pollsters they will vote for doesn't counteract fully the apprehension black voters have about his electability," Ms. Harris-Lacewell said. 2295:"While the 1982 California gubernatorial contest is not the only race where the race of the candidate has been thought to be a factor in polling gone awry, there are a number of other reasons why the Field Poll may not have been accurate. I spoke with Mark DiCamillo, Director of the Field Poll—whose phone has been ringing off the hook about this today. He told me that there was a memo done by the polling organization shortly after the election to try to understand what had occurred (not available online as it predated the internet) that identified four possible factors: 397: 2094:"The most tangled polling errors came in California, where almost no one forecast Republican George Deukmejian's 50,000-vote victory over Tom Bradley. Indeed, the Los Angeles Times ran a frontpage story on election morning about the lineup of local politicians vying to succeed Bradley as the city's mayor. The San Francisco Chronicle's first election extra bannered: BRADLEY WIN PROJECTED. While ABC was predicting Deukmejian's victory, its affiliate stations in Los Angeles and San Francisco were using exit polls of their own to call the race for Bradley instead." 476: 802: 1096:"During Jesse Jackson's bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 1988, Murray Edelman of CBS News and Rutgers University took a look at the effect the race of the interviewer might have had on the way people answered questions about who they intended to vote for. 'White respondents showed more support for Jackson when talking to black interviewers than the other way around,' said Mr. Edelman. 'The support for Jackson was less when white respondents talked to white interviewers.'" 665: 1772:"Why did Jindal lose after leading his Democratic opponent, Kathleen Blanco, in statewide polls in the weeks before the election? In a word, race. What occurred was the 'Wilder effect,' named after the black Virginia governor elected in 1989. Wilder, a Democrat, polled well, then won narrowly. Many white voters, it turned out, said they intended to vote for a black candidate when they really didn't. Questioned by pollsters, they were leery of being seen as racially prejudiced." 793: 257:. More so than the California governor's race the year before, the Washington-Epton matchup evinced strong and overt racial overtones throughout the campaign. Two polls conducted approximately two weeks before the election showed Washington with a 14-point lead in the race. A third conducted just three days before the election confirmed Washington continuing to hold a lead of 14 points. But in the election's final results, Washington won by less than four points. 1493:"When David Dinkins, an African-American, ran for mayor of New York City, he won. He didn't win by anything like the margin the pollsters were predicting, though, and Dinkins's win left those pollsters scratching their heads. Where had the missing Dinkins voters gone? The common conclusion of the pollsters was that race is such a charged issue in the U.S.A. that people will lie about their intentions to vote for a black candidate all the way to the voting booth." 1944:"Many experts predicted Rep. Ford would lose by a wider margin than he did because some of his white supporters would desert him – a pattern first documented in 1982, when former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley lost the California governor's race by a larger-than-expected margin. Researchers said white voters felt social pressure to tell pollsters they would vote for Mr. Bradley, who was black, but voted for his white opponent when they cast their ballots. 1901:"Is Harold Ford Jr. really doing as well as the polls suggest? Is he conceivably on his way to becoming the first black Southern senator since Reconstruction? The answer may well be yes, but Ford can hardly take that for granted. As black candidates reaching out to largely white constituencies have discovered in the past, when it comes to measuring political popularity there are lies, damned lies—and polls, on which they rest their fate at their peril." 1874:"The Southeastern poll results, based on a statewide random sample of 641 registered voters, was conducted Oct. 1–7 and has an overall sampling error of plus or minus 4 percent ... Corbello said a surprising 29 percent of voters said they were undecided or refused to state a preference. However, when the undecided 'leaners' are apportioned among the candidates, Jindal has 49.6 percent, Boasso 11.2 percent, Georges 10.8 percent and Campbell 6.2 percent." 1056: 1559: 1911: 2343:"On election night in 1982, with 3,000 supporters celebrating prematurely at a downtown hotel, I was upstairs reviewing early results that suggested Bradley would probably lose. But he wasn't losing because of race. He was losing because an unpopular gun control initiative and an aggressive Republican absentee ballot program generated hundreds of thousands of Republican votes no pollster anticipated, giving Mr. Deukmejian a narrow victory. " 1454:"One can also argue, however, that the wind at Obama's back might not be nearly as strong as it seems. Despite the fact that Americans seem downright bullish about backing a qualified black presidential candidate – in a December Newsweek poll, 93 percent said they would vote for such a person – there is also the nagging possibility that a lot of people don't really mean it, that they merely want to sound PC when the pollster calls. 1608:"All the published pre-election surveys had shown Wilder leading his Republican rival J. Marshall Coleman by margins of 4% to 15%. Even an initial television exit poll had anointed Wilder with a 10 percentage-point triumph. But by the time Wilder felt comfortable enough to declare victory, his razor-thin lead had stabilized about where it would end up: just 6,582 votes out of a record 1.78 million ballots cast." 22: 2607:"Still, there are people who believe what Edley called 'the Bradley factor' could stall Obama's campaign. When Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley ran for governor in California in 1982, all the polls had him leading handily, 'but when people got behind the curtain, they couldn't pull the lever' for him, Edley said. 'The question is to what extent does that Bradley effect still an effect 25 years later?'" 2913:"We'll have plenty of chances in the coming weeks to measure pre-election polls against actual results – including in states with much more racial diversity than New Hampshire. The only prediction I'll make is that following Tuesday's big surprise, embarrassed pollsters and pundits will be especially vigilant for any sign that the 'Bradley effect,' unseen in recent years, might have crept back." 700:, a white senator. However, Clinton defeated Obama by three points in the New Hampshire race, where ballots were cast secretly, immediately initiating suggestions by some analysts that the Bradley effect may have been at work. Other analysts cast doubt on that hypothesis, saying that the polls underestimated Clinton rather than overestimated Obama. Clinton may have also benefited from the 2031:"'The argument of a specific Bradley effect,' insisted Langer, 'still looks to me to like a theory in search of data ... I don't see why this effect would be limited, before now, to a handful of elections 15 to 25 years ago. And I don't know how to understand its absence in so many other black-white races – five races in 2006 alone, as I note – in which pre-election polling was dead on.' 2211:"Kohut recently conducted a study in which interviewers spent months repeatedly calling people back until they agreed to talk. He said that helped him see who is often missed in polling. 'Poorer, less-educated whites don't like to do these polls as much as better-educated people do,' he said. 'The refusals come from the same class of people who tend to be the most racially intolerant.'" 1672:"Conventional wisdom is that people lie to pollsters in elections featuring candidates of different races. That's the Bradley effect, named for Tom Bradley, the L.A. mayor once believed to be a shoo-in for California governor. But the polls got that one all wrong. In a black-white race, the theory says, the black candidate polls better than he'll actually do on Election Day. 201: 499:. Ford lost by a slim margin, but an examination of exit polling data indicated that the percentage of white voters who voted for him remained close to the percentage that indicated they would do so in polls conducted prior to the election. Several other 2006 biracial contests saw pre-election polls predict their respective elections' final results with similar accuracy. 1856:" With about 92 percent of the vote in, Jindal had 625,036 votes or 53 percent – more than enough to win outright and avoid a Nov. 17 runoff. His nearest competitors: Democrat Walter Boasso with 208,690 votes or 18 percent; Independent John Georges had 1167,477 votes or 14 percent; Democrat Foster Campbell had 151,101 or 13 percent. Eight candidates divided the rest." 1720:"An independent statewide poll by Mason-Dixon, released this week, has Ford ahead by 1 percentage point. But public opinion surveys are notoriously unreliable when one of the candidates is black. Campaign strategists often subtract a "racial slippage" factor, to account for surveys that might exaggerate a black candidate's strength by up to 9 percentage points. 645:, Bradley's campaign chair, spoke of having warned Bradley long before any polling concerns arose that endorsing the ballot initiative would ultimately doom his campaign. Rejecting the idea that the Bradley effect theory was a factor in the outcome, Rising said, "If there is such an effect, it shouldn't be named for Bradley, or associated with him in any way." 583:, which conducted research into the phenomenon, has suggested that the discrepancies may arise, not from white participants giving false answers, but rather from white voters who have negative opinions of blacks being less likely to participate in polling at all than white voters who do not share such negative sentiments with regard to blacks. 1688: 183: 1457: 1710: 719: 640: 619: 149: 2033:'Newton's Law of Gravity doesn't just work on Thursdays,' Langer said. 'You want an effect to be clearly established as an effect through analysis of empirical data, and maybe in more than one election. And to call it an effect you want it to be a consistent effect, or to explain its inconsistency'". 899: 894: 1456: 778: 631: 727: 627: 564: 539: 530: 1459: 768: 767: 614: 1462: 1618: 882: 305:, who was white. In that race, Wilder prevailed, but by less than half of one percent, when pre-election poll numbers showed him on average with a 9 percent lead. The discrepancy was attributed to white voters telling pollsters that they were undecided when they actually voted for Coleman. 632: 71:. Specifically, some voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation. Members of the public may feel under pressure to provide an answer that is deemed to be more publicly acceptable, or 1646:"More than most politicians, Wilder knows personally how difficult it can be for a black candidate; during his gubernatorial campaign, the gap between his numbers in the final polls and in the actual election showed such a dramatic drop-off that it became known as the 'Wilder Effect.'" 1094:"In high-profile contests where one of the major party candidates is black, pre-election telephone polls have often been wrong, overstating the strength of the black candidate. In polling circles this is known as the 'Bradley effect' or the 'Wilder effect' or the 'Dinkins effect.'" 635: 387:, many potential voters would not tell pollsters that they favored Duke (as they feared the ostracization that could result from being on record as being a Duke supporter), but would go on to vote for him anyway. The commentary at that time was that Duke "flies under the radar." 750:, made young voters who grew up with that series' initial run comfortable with the idea of an African American man being a viable presidential candidate, which enhanced Obama's election chances with that population. Others have called it the "Palmer effect" on the theory that 1831:"Based on his nightly polling data, Kennedy projected the race would be 50.4 percent for Blanco and 49.6 percent for Jindal, which is a statistical tie. As was the case when Jindal had an 11-point lead last week, voters shifted first from Jindal to undecided, Kennedy said." 586: 268:—as likely to receive approximately one-third of the white vote. Ultimately, however, Jackson carried only about one quarter of that vote, with the discrepancy in the heavily white state contributing to a large margin of victory for Dukakis over the second-place Jackson. 145: 569:, found the race of the pollster conducting the interview to be a factor in the discrepancy. Edelman's research showed white voters to be more likely to indicate support for Jackson when asked by a black interviewer than when asked by a white interviewer. 1999:"CBS pollster Kathleen Frankovic doesn't see any more. In recent elections with black candidates – Deval Patrick's winning governor's race in Massachusetts, in Tennessee, Harold Ford losing his run for the Senate, both in 2006 – the polls were right-on. 688:, brought a heightened level of scrutiny to the Bradley effect, as observers searched for signs of the effect in comparing Obama's polling numbers to the actual election results during the Democratic primary elections. After a victorious showing in the 2686: 912: 1726: 45: 774: 599:, and contrary to Edelman's findings in 1988, Brodnitz indicated that he did not find the race of the interviewer to be a factor in voter responses in pre-election polls. Brodnitz suggested that late-deciding voters tend to have moderate-to- 1976:"One piece of encouraging news from Tennessee is that the returns showed no signs of the 'Bradley Effect,' in which white voters tell pollsters they will vote for the black candidate, then go into the voting booth and choose someone else." 2053:"I warned , you've got to watch those polls. But I think people are becoming less resistant to saying, 'I'm going to vote for the person whether it's a woman, or gay, or whatever.' There's more openness – but we've still got to watch it." 822: 641: 779: 161:. Henry researched the election in its aftermath and, in a 1983 study, reached the controversial conclusion that race was the most likely factor in Bradley's defeat. However, one critic of the Bradley effect theory has charged that 1674: 879: 810: 565: 547: 514: 90: 2660:""Ballot Changes Cited in Vote's Discrepancy With Polls: Clinton's Favorable Placement on Ballots May Account for Part of Poll Mistakes", Opinion By Jon A. Krosnick, Professor, Stanford University, January 9, 2008" 890: 611:. Langer has described the Bradley effect as "a theory in search of data." He has argued that inconsistency of its appearance, particularly in more recent elections, casts doubt upon its validity as a theory. 1149:, "Political Consultant Don Solem explains: 'It's not so much they're afraid to say it as they think it might be taken the wrong way.' Solem said the Bradley Effect is also known as social desirability bias." 2697: 1278: 368: 3047: 656:. The study found no evidence of a corresponding effect based upon gender – in fact, female Senate candidates received on average 1.2 percentage points more votes than polls had predicted. 1460: 86: 2873: 871: 1722: 427: 165: 875: 867: 279:. Four days before the election, a new poll showed that lead to have shrunk, but still standing at 14 points. On the day of the election, Dinkins prevailed by only two points. 2421: 979: 419:, Powell was quoted as saying, "Every time I see Earl Graves, he says, 'Look, man, don't let them hand you no crap. When go in that booth, they ain't going to vote for you.'" 544: 467:, this time securing an easy victory, with his final vote total remaining in line with or stronger than the predictions of the polls conducted shortly before the election. 1321: 372: 463:, countered that later polls taken just before the election correctly showed that lead to have evaporated, and reported the candidates to be statistically tied. In 2007, 895: 863: 191: 566: 1785: 3298: 1812: 1724: 308: 3021: 970:, washingtonmonthly.com, July 23, 2008, citing a Google search: "3,820 hits for Wilder Effect compared to 44,900 hits for Bradley Effect". Retrieved 10 July 2021. 3131: 1479: 488: 2397: 603: 1221: 503: 150: 1758: 2927: 938: 2001:'I really do believe that the so-called Bradley effect is an artifact of a certain place and a certain time,' she said. 'It's an artifact of the 1980s.'" 1844: 1013: 2301: 1946: 2121: 1268:, "DiCamillo said a postelection analysis conducted by his organization found 'nine out of 10' undecided respondents wound up voting for Deukmejian." 736: 607: 37:) is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a 3117: 840: 814: 2595: 415: 3293: 2287: 1737: 1175:, "'Anyone who studies survey research will tell you one of the biggest problems we encounter is this notion of social desirability bias,' said." 677: 142: 2881: 843: 283: 3288: 3283: 2180: 2084: 1598: 1525: 1109: 693: 648: 464: 450: 346:. Gantt lost his race by six points. Two late polls showed Gantt ahead by four to six points, but one other showed a four-point Helms victory. 54: 2960: 2779: 1636: 3308: 524: 732:, a mostly white and economically depressed neighborhood in Philadelphia, voted 81% for Obama in the 2008 election. Alternatively, writer 2745: 2539: 1138: 2829: 2017: 914: 672: 1028: 2429: 158: 2156: 1662: 1463: 826: 108: 50: 2714: 411:'s name was floated as a possible 1996 Republican presidential candidate, Powell reportedly spoke of being cautioned by publisher 2481: 1962: 1934: 1887: 1416: 848: 516: 507: 232: 120: 112: 2903: 2200: 929:, a U.S. Congressman. Despite Gillum having led in most polls before the election, DeSantis ultimately won by a margin of 0.4%. 141: 1823: 1577: 1318: 3092: 2996: 2617: 689: 58: 3167: 2833: 289:'s margin of victory in the 1989 Virginia gubernatorial election was narrower than predicted by pre-election and exit polls. 1346: 1560: 1255: 1162: 453: 3252: 2104: 2043: 1939: 1809: 1782: 1367: 1198: 981: 556: 2566: 396: 3141: 2378: 2259: 943: 751: 637: 80: 271: 1476: 3313: 2062: 1985: 2935: 2271: 2225: 1916: 1755: 1448: 403: 227: 2859: 2373: 475: 3048:"Reporter to Trump: Why Is It Appropriate For A President To Ask A Foreign Leader For Info On Political Rival?" 2664: 1511: 716: 608: 442: 154: 68: 1841: 900: 3159: 2659: 2482:"No More Wilder Effect, Never a Whitman Effect: When and Why Polls Mislead about Black and Female Candidates" 2784: 2544: 2318: 2071: 1994: 1667: 653: 600: 354: 137: 131: 331:. Goode prevailed by a narrow margin, despite having had a significantly larger lead in pre-election polls. 2622: 1330: 1194: 733: 729: 624: 541: 243: 116: 3189: 3201: 2977: 2804: 2592: 2511: 844: 685: 2313: 2284: 801: 3066: 771: 664: 153: 3245: 2577: 2571: 1443: 294: 47: 2761: 1113: 260: 221:(right) each showed stronger support in the polls than they ultimately received in the voting booth. 3303: 2957: 2931: 2908: 2789: 2205: 1767: 1693: 1564: 1420: 1372: 1239: 896: 580: 576: 437: 412: 365: 72: 2638: 2122: 1866: 1084: 967: 792: 3241: 2488: 2454: 2353: 2338: 2185: 2140: 2126: 1658: 1582: 1299: 1283: 1089: 649: 604: 553: 135:, a number of media outlets projected Bradley as the winner and early editions of the next day's 128: 3257: 3051: 2742: 1715: 1351: 1135: 1007: 712: 511: 298: 286: 250: 210: 124: 96: 61: 2837: 2333: 2014: 704: 3176: 2425: 2048: 1852: 1032: 596: 492: 480: 350: 302: 235: 228: 3214: 2964: 2749: 2599: 2524: 2466: 2299: 2291: 2263: 2160: 2089: 2021: 1966: 1891: 1848: 1827: 1816: 1794: 1789: 1762: 1641: 1603: 1543: 1530: 1488: 1483: 1472: 1325: 1259: 1166: 1142: 948: 909: 851: 818: 755: 697: 455: 265: 92: 75:. The reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election 16: 2303: 2153: 2725: 282: 3223: 2444: 2369: 1959: 1884: 1808: 1742: 1363: 1264: 1171: 760: 746: 737: 724: 701: 335: 166: 64:, a white person, despite Bradley being ahead in voter polls going into the elections. 42: 2492: 3277: 2138: 1342: 1295: 918: 708: 642: 276: 272: 261: 254: 218: 214: 67: 2297: 1820: 692:, where votes were cast publicly, polls predicted that Obama would also capture the 3227: 3136: 2808: 2593: 2165: 1684: 1623: 1314: 1061: 926: 855: 830: 681: 669: 572: 446: 416: 408: 400: 376: 339: 328: 320: 162: 87: 38: 3180: 764:, showed viewers that an African American man can be a strong commander in chief. 615: 349: 2066: 1989: 2923: 2417: 2285: 1502: 922: 592: 343: 324: 21: 1252: 1159: 887:, as Hillary Clinton was the first female major party candidate for President. 523:. Those same polls also underestimated the Democratic candidate in the state's 2393: 741: 520: 496: 460: 384: 76: 988: 2026: 859: 239: 132: 2256: 487: 200: 3118:"Pollster Who Got It Right in 2016 Does It Again | RealClearPolitics" 1912: 83: 2765: 1971: 1896: 549: 361: 264:—at the time, a legitimate challenger to white candidate and frontrunner 3132:"How was race a factor in Florida election for governor? | Miami Herald" 3020: 1547: 1506: 1146: 182: 2997:"HuffPost Forecasts Hillary Clinton Will Win With 323 Electoral Votes" 2402: 884: 2743: 663: 474: 395: 281: 20: 579: 483:'s 2006 U.S. Senate campaign did not exhibit the Bradley effect. 380: 1417: 3193: 2422:"Sebelius Revives Fears of 'Bradley Effect' With Race Comment" 2357: 1689: 1415: 1303: 1279: 445:, attributed the four-point loss by Indian American candidate 2603: 1867: 1505: 758: 1507: 2752:", University of Washington Office of News and Information 878:, giving him more electoral votes than Secretary Clinton. 242: 3093:"'Shy' Voters Probably Aren't Why The Polls Missed Trump" 1958: 3160:"Shaping the Race Issue: A Special Kind of Journalism" 1870: 1810: 1253: 1160: 908: 375: 293: 2874:"The Palmer Effect Part 2: Yes, We Really Really Can" 249: 3022:"There may have been shy Trump supporters after all" 209: 1444: 3015: 3013: 1929: 1927: 1925: 1421:Pew Research Center for the People & the Press 435:A few analysts, such as political commentator and 2715:"North Carolina Statewide Survey Research Report" 1578:Dukakis Defeats Jackson Handily in Wisconsin Vote 111:, the long-time mayor of Los Angeles, ran as the 1224:Weekly Standard; Aaron Miskin; November 11, 2008 567:American Association for Public Opinion Research 1711:Ford plays against type in bid for Senate upset 1411: 1409: 1407: 1405: 1403: 1401: 1399: 1397: 1395: 1393: 1368:If Obama Loses: Don't Blame the Bradley Effect" 1051: 1049: 3224:"It was guns, not race, that affected Bradley" 3190:"Will Obama suffer from the 'Bradley effect'?" 2540:"Many think 'Bradley effect' won't hurt Obama" 1736:Gates, Henry Louis Jr. (September 25, 1995). " 1136:Could Bradley Effect Change November Election? 1029:"Election Poll Problems: Did Some Voters Lie?" 275:holding an 18-point lead over white candidate 2858:Valdes-Rodriguez, Alisa (November 2, 2008). " 2257:The Bradley Effect Was about Guns, Not Racism 2083:Henry, William A. III. (November 15, 1982). " 1654: 1652: 636:higher-than-expected turnout in California's 527:—a race in which both candidates were white. 8: 2009: 2007: 1871:Southeastern Social Sciences Research Center 1233:Nelson, Colleen McCain. (August 10, 2002). " 504:race for United States Senator from Maryland 451:2003 Louisiana gubernatorial runoff election 2928:"The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect" 2687:"North Carolina Presidential Election Poll" 2226:"Did racist voters cost Obama the primary?" 2219: 2217: 1108:III, William A. Henry (November 15, 1982). 939:Ethnocultural politics in the United States 2978:"Poll Data Doesn't Reflect Bradley Effect" 2694:InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research 2398:"Are Voters Telling The Truth About Race?" 2251: 2249: 2247: 1593: 1591: 1319:Who's Most Worried About a Bradley Effect? 1189: 1187: 1185: 1183: 1181: 744:and father on the 1980s television series 2958:Cell Phones and Political Surveys: Part 1 2830:"Philadelphia 18th Ward election results" 2567:"Obama needs early win to get black vote" 2268:California Journal of Politics and Policy 1438: 1436: 1434: 1432: 1430: 1428: 694:New Hampshire Democratic primary election 2120:Rosenthal, Andrew. (November 9, 1989). " 1954: 1952: 1840:Deslatte, Melinda. (October 20, 2007). " 1217: 1215: 841:2016 United States presidential election 783:2016 United States presidential election 660:2008 United States presidential election 489:Tennessee race for United States Senator 3067:"Poll: 'Shy Trump' voters are a mirage" 2902:Robinson, Eugene. (January 11, 2008). " 2443:Frankovic, Kathy (September 19, 2008). 2314:Tom Bradley Didn't Lose Because of Race 2199:Holmes, Stephen A. (October 12, 2008). 1935:Impact of race on Ford's defeat debated 1933:Rowland, Ashley. (November 12, 2006). " 1705: 1703: 1597:Shapiro, Walter. (November 20, 1989). " 1300:Should Obama Fear The "Bradley Effect"? 1199:"The Bradley Effect – Selective Memory" 1079: 1077: 1075: 1073: 1071: 959: 591:, worked on the 2006 campaign of black 519:opponent, then longtime Representative 3299:Politics and race in the United States 3210: 3199: 3168:Political Communication and Persuasion 2834:Philadelphia County Board of Elections 2538:Fulbright, Leslie (October 21, 2008). 2520: 2509: 2462: 2452: 2013:Koppelman, Alex. (January 24, 2008). " 1910:Locker, Richard. (November 1, 2006). " 1635:Bacon, Perry Jr. (January 23, 2007). " 1012:: CS1 maint: archived copy as title ( 1005: 301:, an African-American, and Republican 143:Bradley narrowly lost the overall race 55:1982 California gubernatorial election 2995:Jackson, Natalie (November 7, 2016). 2778:Thompson, Isaiah (October 29, 2008). 2480:Daniel J. Hopkins (October 4, 2008). 2105:The Bradley Effect – Selective Memory 1524:Isaacson, Walter. (April 11, 1983). " 1055:Reddy, Patrick. (January 20, 2002). " 431:2003 Louisiana gubernatorial election 253:, running against a white candidate, 7: 3065:Shepard, Steven (November 3, 2016). 3046:Schwartz, Ian (September 25, 2019). 2741:Schwarz, Joel. (February 6, 2008). " 2270:: Vol. 1 : Iss. 1, Article 27. 2224:Siddique, Haroon (January 9, 2008). 2179:Kohut, Andrew. (January 10, 2008). " 2152:Biegelsen, Amy. (January 9, 2008). " 2042:Walker, Adrian. (January 4, 2007). " 1754:Barnes, Fred. (November 17, 2003). " 1576:Dionne, E. J. Jr. (April 6, 1988). " 1544:Washington-Epton Race Was Often Ugly 1251:Rojas, Aurelio. (October 9, 2008). " 1158:Rojas, Aurelio. (October 9, 2008). " 854:was predicted to defeat businessman 3188:Carroll, Jason (October 14, 2008). 2956:Blumenthal, Mark. (July 3, 2007). " 2591:Jones, Jackie. (January 2, 2008). " 2332:Levin, Blair. (October 19, 2008). " 2283:Russo, Frank D. (January 9, 2008). 1781:Dreher, Rod. (November 21, 2003). " 1617:Black, Chris. (November 9, 1989). " 1442:Polman, Dick. (January 21, 2007). " 1235:Race makes state races hard to call 883:preferences to avoid being seen as 668:Some have suggested that President 53:, an African-American who lost the 3091:Enten, Harry (November 16, 2016). 2836:. November 4, 2008. Archived from 2352:Levin, Blair. (October 21, 2008). 2015:Will whites vote for Barack Obama? 1883:Cose, Ellis. (October 30, 2006), " 1865:Abade, Rene. (October 10, 2007). " 1637:Can Obama Count On the Black Vote? 1558:Peterson, Bill. (April 4, 1988). " 1542:Carr, Camilla. (April 12, 1983). " 1134:Perez, Simon. (October 9, 2008). " 858:. Nevertheless, Trump won the key 754:, a fictional president played by 159:University of California, Berkeley 14: 3222:Mathews, Joe (November 4, 2008). 2724:. August 18, 2008. Archived from 2696:. August 19, 2008. Archived from 2616:Tabin, John. (January 9, 2008). " 2312:Russo, Sal. (October 20, 2008). " 2201:Pollsters Debate 'Bradley Effect' 2762:Will closet racism derail Obama? 1709:West, Paul. (October 6, 2006). " 1085:Will There Be an 'Obama Effect?' 1027:Gary Langer (November 8, 1989). 839:Although both candidates in the 821:winning the presidency. Clinton 800: 791: 199: 190: 181: 2803:Smith, Ben (October 30, 2008). 1842:Jindal wins La. governor's race 1083:Elder, Janet. (May 16, 2007). " 711:primaries of February 5, 2008, 3294:Elections in the United States 1110:"Press: Fighting the Last War" 915:Florida gubernatorial election 623:Prominent Republican pollster 315:Also sometimes mentioned are: 1: 3289:Data anonymization techniques 3284:American political neologisms 3181:10.1080/10584609.1988.9962847 1619:POLLSTERS SAY SOME VOTERS LIE 825:but lost the election in the 2487:. Department of Government, 1940:Chattanooga Times Free Press 1347:The 'Bradley effect' in 2008 3309:Voting in the United States 3253:"The 'Bradley effect' myth" 2639:"News from the Vote Master" 2379:The New York Times Magazine 2262:September 25, 2009, at the 1526:The Making of a Litmus Test 1515:, Vol. 54, No. 1, pp. 74–96 944:Racism in the United States 740:, a respected middle-class 575:, who was the president of 423:Possible diminished effects 323:between white former mayor 59:California attorney general 3330: 3158:Payne, J. Gregory (1988). 2578:Melissa V. Harris-Lacewell 1890:February 16, 2007, at the 1847:December 24, 2007, at the 1738:Powell and the Black Elite 1222:A Base Election After All? 1057:Does McCall Have A Chance? 815:2016 presidential election 678:2008 presidential campaign 2748:February 8, 2008, at the 2722:Tel Opinion Research, LLC 2290:January 13, 2008, at the 2020:October 25, 2008, at the 1965:February 9, 2007, at the 1917:Memphis Commercial Appeal 1761:October 19, 2008, at the 1449:The Philadelphia Inquirer 1324:October 12, 2008, at the 1258:October 10, 2008, at the 1165:October 10, 2008, at the 1141:December 5, 2008, at the 1124:– via www.time.com. 319:The 1987 mayoral race in 2963:August 30, 2008, at the 2598:January 4, 2008, at the 2274:: 10.2202/1944-4370.1054 2159:October 7, 2008, at the 2065:. (October 12, 2008). " 1988:. (October 12, 2008). " 1788:October 7, 2008, at the 1599:Breakthrough in Virginia 1512:Public Opinion Quarterly 717:University of Washington 364:between black candidate 360:The 1992 Senate race in 338:between black candidate 334:The 1990 Senate race in 155:African-American Studies 69:social desirability bias 2785:Philadelphia City Paper 2545:San Francisco Chronicle 2446:Does Race Skew Polling? 2319:The Wall Street Journal 2072:CBS News Sunday Morning 1995:CBS News Sunday Morning 1687:. (1987, November 4). " 1668:Philadelphia Daily News 1663:Decoding the lawn signs 1661:. (October 23, 2008). " 1452:, "The American Debate" 1366:. (November 2, 2008). " 1345:. (October 2, 2008). " 1317:. (October 9, 2008). " 968:"East Coast Bias Watch" 925:, and white Republican 917:between black Democrat 696:by a large margin over 577:the Gallup Organization 138:San Francisco Chronicle 3209:Cite journal requires 3006:– via Huff Post. 2805:"Race and the economy" 2623:The American Spectator 2618:It's Crying Time Again 2519:Cite journal requires 2432:on September 18, 2008. 2420:(September 17, 2008). 2372:(September 26, 2008). 1795:National Review Online 1489:National Review Online 1331:National Review Online 1298:. (October 6, 2008). " 1195:Tarrance, V. Lance Jr. 880:Post-election analysis 734:Alisa Valdes-Rodriguez 673: 625:V. Lance Tarrance, Jr. 542:V. Lance Tarrance, Jr. 484: 404: 290: 244:Mayor of New York City 117:Governor of California 115:Party's candidate for 26: 3144:on November 16, 2018. 2904:Echoes Of Tom Bradley 2780:"The Fishtown Effect" 2731:on September 9, 2008. 2703:on September 9, 2008. 2255:Mathews, Joe (2009) " 2154:Obama's Wilder Lesson 2085:Fighting the Last War 1826:July 4, 2007, at the 1482:May 17, 2007, at the 1277:(1982, October 13). " 845:United States Senator 715:researchers from the 686:United States Senator 667: 478: 399: 285: 24: 2792:on November 2, 2008. 2572:The Washington Times 2374:"The Bradley Effect" 2334:What Bradley Effect? 1885:The 'Bradley Effect' 1815:May 9, 2007, at the 1197:(October 13, 2008). 823:won the popular vote 495:and white candidate 342:and white candidate 327:and black incumbent 295:Governor of Virginia 127:, who was white (of 3097:fivethirtyeight.com 2984:. November 7, 2008. 2938:on December 2, 2013 2932:FiveThirtyEight.com 2926:(August 11, 2008). 2909:The Washington Post 2860:The Huxtable Effect 2840:on November 8, 2008 2637:Andrew, Tanenbaum. 2604:BlackAmericaWeb.com 2498:on October 10, 2008 2206:The Washington Post 1768:The Weekly Standard 1694:The Washington Post 1659:Smerconish, Michael 1565:The Washington Post 1475:. (May 15, 2007). " 1373:The Washington Post 1240:Dallas Morning News 994:on January 20, 2009 897:FiveThirtyEight.com 728:economic concerns. 581:Pew Research Center 479:Polling numbers in 438:The Weekly Standard 366:Carol Moseley Braun 73:politically correct 33:(less commonly the 3261:. November 4, 2008 3246:The Bradley Effect 3242:Raphael Sonenshein 2768:, October 20, 2008 2489:Harvard University 2339:The New York Times 2186:The New York Times 2141:Detroit Free Press 2127:The New York Times 1583:The New York Times 1284:The New York Times 1090:The New York Times 849:Secretary of State 674: 650:Harvard University 589:The Polling Report 554:affirmative action 485: 405: 291: 27: 3314:Cognitive inertia 3258:Los Angeles Times 3052:RealClearPolitics 2884:on April 20, 2016 2872:Design, Hexalys. 2109:RealClearPolitics 2044:Sharing the Pride 1960:Is America Ready? 1756:The Wilder Effect 1716:The Baltimore Sun 1477:None of the Above 1352:Los Angeles Times 827:Electoral College 713:political science 617:Los Angeles Times 525:race for governor 471:2006 Senate races 299:L. Douglas Wilder 297:between Democrat 287:L. Douglas Wilder 251:Harold Washington 211:Harold Washington 125:George Deukmejian 97:spiral of silence 62:George Deukmejian 48:Los Angeles mayor 25:Mayor Tom Bradley 3321: 3270: 3268: 3266: 3244:(October 2008), 3238: 3236: 3234: 3218: 3212: 3207: 3205: 3197: 3184: 3164: 3146: 3145: 3140:. Archived from 3128: 3122: 3121: 3114: 3108: 3107: 3105: 3103: 3088: 3082: 3081: 3079: 3077: 3062: 3056: 3055: 3043: 3037: 3036: 3034: 3032: 3017: 3008: 3007: 3005: 3003: 2992: 2986: 2985: 2974: 2968: 2954: 2948: 2947: 2945: 2943: 2934:. Archived from 2920: 2914: 2900: 2894: 2893: 2891: 2889: 2880:. Archived from 2878:www.thesimon.com 2869: 2863: 2856: 2850: 2849: 2847: 2845: 2826: 2820: 2819: 2817: 2815: 2800: 2794: 2793: 2788:. 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