72:, a cognitive bias that knowing the outcome of a certain event makes it seem more predictable than may actually be true. Research conducted by Fischhoff revealed that participants did not know that their outcome knowledge affected their responses, and, if they did know, they could still not ignore or defeat the effects of the bias. Study participants could not accurately reconstruct their previous, less knowledgeable states of mind, which directly relates to the curse of knowledge. This poor reconstruction was theorized by Fischhoff to be because the participant was "anchored in the hindsightful state of mind created by receipt of knowledge". This receipt of knowledge returns to the idea of the curse proposed by Camerer, Loewenstein, and Weber: a knowledgeable person cannot accurately reconstruct what a person, be it themselves or someone else, without the knowledge would think, or how they would act. In his paper, Fischhoff questions the failure to empathize with ourselves in less knowledgeable states, and notes that how well people manage to reconstruct perceptions of lesser informed others is a crucial question for historians and "all human understanding".
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the bias. If the event was less plausible, knowledge was not as much of a "curse" as when there was a potential explanation for the way the other person could act. However, a replication study conducted in 2014 found that this finding was not reliably reproducible across seven experiments with large sample sizes, and the true effect size of this phenomenon was less than half of that reported in the original findings. Therefore, it is suggested that "the influence of plausibility on the curse of knowledge in adults appears to be small enough that its impact on real-life perspective-taking may need to be reevaluated."
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example from the software industry, whereby software engineers (who have a deep understanding of the domain the software is written for) create user interfaces that they themselves can understand and use, but end users - who do not possess the same level of knowledge - find the user interfaces difficult to use and navigate. This problem has become so widespread in software design that the mantra "You are not the user" has become ubiquitous in the user experience industry to remind practitioners that their knowledge and intuitions do not always match those of the end users they are designing for.
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finding that sales agents who are better informed about their products may, in fact, be at a disadvantage against other, less-informed agents when selling their products. The reason is said to be that better-informed agents fail to ignore the privileged knowledge that they possess and are thus "cursed" and unable to sell their products at a value that more naĂŻve agents would deem acceptable.
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Economists
Camerer, Loewenstein, and Weber first applied the curse of knowledge phenomenon to economics, in order to explain why and how the assumption that better-informed agents can accurately anticipate the judgments of lesser-informed agents is not inherently true. They also sought to support the
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undergraduate students used the curse of knowledge concept to explain the idea that the ability of people to reason about another person's actions is compromised by the knowledge of the outcome of an event. The perception the participant had of the plausibility of an event also mediated the extent of
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For example, two people are bargaining over dividing money or provisions. One party may know the size of the amount being divided while the other does not. However, to fully exploit their advantage, the informed party should make the same offer regardless of the amount of material to be divided. But
38:
For example, in a classroom setting, teachers may have difficulty if they cannot put themselves in the position of the student. A knowledgeable professor might no longer remember the difficulties that a young student encounters when learning a new subject for the first time. This curse of knowledge
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Investment bankers value securities, experts taste cheese, store buyers observe jewelry being modeled, and theater owners see movies before they are released. They then sell those goods to a less-informed public. If they suffer from the curse of knowledge, high-quality goods will be overpriced and
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graduate student, Elizabeth Newton, illustrated the curse of knowledge in the results of a simple task. A group of subjects were asked to "tap" out well known songs with their fingers, while another group tried to name the melodies. When the "tappers" were asked to predict how many of the "tapped"
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It can also show up in computer programming where the programmer fails to produce understandable code, e.g. comment their code, because it seems obvious at the time they write it. But a few months later they themselves may have no idea why the code exists. The design of user interfaces is another
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This research led the economists
Camerer, Loewenstein, and Weber to focus on the economic implications of the concept and question whether the curse harms the allocation of resources in an economic setting. The idea that better-informed parties may suffer losses in a deal or exchange was seen as
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It has also been suggested that the curse of knowledge could contribute to the difficulty of teaching. The curse of knowledge means that it could be potentially ineffective, if not harmful, to think about how students are viewing and learning material by asking the perspective of the teacher as
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The curse of knowledge has a paradoxical effect in these settings. By making better-informed agents think that their knowledge is shared by others, the curse helps alleviate the inefficiencies that result from information asymmetries (a better informed party having an advantage in a bargaining
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80:. However, in these analyses, there is an assumption that better-informed parties can optimally exploit their information asymmetry when they, in fact, cannot. People cannot utilize their additional, better information, even when they should in a bargaining situation.
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is another way of coping with the curse of knowledge in educational settings. It intends to increase student learning by narrowing the gap between expert and novice thinking resulting from the curse of knowledge. The process seeks to make explicit the
61:, and Martin Weber. The aim of their research was to counter the "conventional assumptions in such (economic) analyses of asymmetric information in that better-informed agents can accurately anticipate the judgement of less-informed agents".
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songs would be recognized by listeners, they would always overestimate. The curse of knowledge is demonstrated here as the "tappers" are so familiar with what they were tapping that they assumed listeners would easily recognize the tune.
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something important to bring to the sphere of economic theory. Most theoretical analyses of situations where one party knew less than the other focused on how the lesser-informed party attempted to learn more information to minimize
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opposed to what has been verified by students. The teacher already has the knowledge that they are trying to impart, but the way that knowledge is conveyed may not be the best for those who do not already possess the knowledge.
201:, not to mention the allocation of time and resources to scientific research and crucial design decisions. Effective teachers must predict the issues and misconceptions that people will face when
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Banks, Jeff; Camerer, Colin F.; and Porter, David. "Experimental Tests of Nash
Refinements in Signaling Games." Working paper. Philadelphia: Univ. Pennsylvania, Dept. Decision Sci., 1988.
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low-quality goods underpriced relative to optimal, profit-maximizing prices; prices will reflect characteristics (e.g., quality) that are unobservable to uninformed buyers ("
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informed parties actually offer more when the amount to be divided is larger. Informed parties are unable to ignore their better information, even when they should.
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also explains the danger behind thinking about student learning based on what appears best to faculty members, as opposed to what has been verified with students.
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Another example is writing a to-do list and viewing it at a future time but forgetting what you had meant as the knowledge at the time of writing is now lost.
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of the trade or profession of the expert. Some experts (lawyers, physicians, etc.) require a licence which may include a requirement to undertake ongoing
123:: the actor may find it frustratingly hard to believe that their teammates keep failing to guess the secret phrase, known only to the actor, conveyed by
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situation), bringing outcomes closer to complete information. In such settings, the curse on individuals may actually improve social welfare.
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In the
Camerer, Loewenstein and Weber article, it is mentioned that the setting closest in structure to the market experiments done would be
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Hinds, Pamela J. (1999). "The Curse of
Expertise: The Effects of Expertise and Debiasing Methods on Predictions of Novice Performance".
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Hinds, Pamela J. (1999). "The curse of expertise: The effects of expertise and debiasing methods on prediction of novice performance".
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Fischhoff, Baruch (1975). "Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty".
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Other researchers have linked the curse of knowledge bias with false-belief reasoning in both children and adults, as well as
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735:, vol. 3, edited by Walter P. Heller, Ross M. Starr, and David A. Starrett. New York: Cambridge Univ. Press, 1986.
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of experts and to help students master the mental actions they need for success in particular disciplines.
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Froyd, Jeff; Layne, Jean (2008). "Faculty development strategies for overcoming the "curse of knowledge"".
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904:"Do Adults Show a Curse of Knowledge in False-Belief Reasoning? A Robust Estimate of the True Effect Size"
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activities that are less well understood than those of professionals, and therefore submit themselves to
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procedures may be required which encompass the processes employed, the training of the expert and the
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that occurs when a person who has specialized knowledge assumes that others share in that knowledge.
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685:"Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty"
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963:"What Can Children Tell Us About Hindsight Bias: A Fundamental Constraint on Perspective–Taking?"
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747:"An Experimental Analysis of Strikes in Bargaining Games with One-Sided Private Information"
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acquiring new skills. This is important because the predictions of experts can influence
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Choke: What the
Secrets of the Brain Reveal About Getting It Right When You Have To
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Un-certainty, Information, and
Communication: Essays in Honor of Kenneth J. Arrow
223:(QA) is a way of circumventing the curse of experience by applying comprehensive
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The difficulty experienced people may encounter is exemplified fictionally by
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was created from a revision of this article dated 23 December 2019
488:
Kennedy, Jane (1995). "Debiasing the Curse of
Knowledge in Audit Judgment".
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Cognitive bias of failing to disregard information only available to oneself
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395: – technique in human reliability assessment and error identification
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603:"The Curse of Knowledge in Economic Settings: An Experimental Analysis"
520:"The 'Curse of Knowledge', or Why Intuition About Teaching Often Fails"
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Myerson, Roger B. "Negotiation in Games: A Theoretical
Overview". In
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Journal of
Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance
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Related to this finding is the phenomenon experienced by players of
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by definition get paid for technically well defined work so that
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BBC Future: What Sherlock Holmes can teach us about the mind
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Camerer, Colin; Loewenstein, George; Weber, Martin (1989).
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Ryskin, Rachel A.; Brown-Schmidt, Sarah (25 March 2014).
837:"The Curse of Knowledge in Reasoning About False Beliefs"
422: – Comedy routine made famous by Abbott and Costello
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assessment by other appropriately qualified individuals.
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Pages displaying short descriptions of redirect targets
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Forsythe, Robert; Kennan, John; Sopher, Barry (1991).
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Pages displaying wikidata descriptions as a fallback
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47:The term "curse of knowledge" was coined in a 1989
1097:"You Are Not the User: The False-Consensus Effect"
1060:(2). American Psychological Association: 205–221.
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553:2008 38th Annual Frontiers in Education Conference
961:Birch, Susan A. J.; Bernstein, Daniel M. (2007).
362: – Development of a mechanized state of mind
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1122:"Principle 69 - The Curse of Knowledge"
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116:development difficulties in children.
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243:(i.e. obtain OPD credits issued by
835:Birch, S. A.J.; Bloom, P. (2007).
824:(PhD thesis). Stanford University.
416: – Safety management approach
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389: – Type of confirmation bias
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1001:from the original on 2016-05-07.
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649:from the original on 2015-03-06.
375:Expert witnesses in English law
366:Empathy gap (social psychology)
209:or understanding an unfamiliar
1126:112 Key Principles for Success
279:Safety § Perceived Safety
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815:Elizabeth L., Newton (1990).
181:may be counterproductive for
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751:The American Economic Review
610:Journal of Political Economy
432:Zone of proximal development
368: – Breakdown in empathy
68:'s work in 1975 surrounding
50:Journal of Political Economy
1755:DĂ©formation professionnelle
1012:Sian beilock (2011-09-09).
414:Threat and error management
100:A study by Susan Birch and
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1749:Basking in reflected glory
683:Fischhoff, Baruch (2003).
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796:. Harvard Business Review
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249:professional associations
1463:Illusion of transparency
794:"The Curse of Knowledge"
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288:research and development
286:are usually employed in
262:Decoding the Disciplines
241:professional development
145:you get what you pay for
64:Such research drew from
323:in discourses with the
245:collegiate universities
92:A 1990 experiment by a
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1154:Listen to this article
1041:The curse of Expertise
381:False consensus effect
53:article by economists
1831:Arab–Israeli conflict
1558:Social influence bias
1503:Out-group homogeneity
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844:Psychological Science
518:Wieman, Carl (2007).
490:The Accounting Review
354:Dunning–Kruger effect
88:Experimental evidence
78:information asymmetry
1473:Mere-exposure effect
1403:Extrinsic incentives
1349:Selective perception
1205:More spoken articles
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701:10.1136/qhc.12.4.304
689:Qual Saf Health Care
533:(10). Archived from
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195:personal development
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1468:Mean world syndrome
1443:Hostile attribution
920:2014PLoSO...992406R
94:Stanford University
1613:Statistical biases
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360:Einstellung effect
225:quality management
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179:curse of expertise
59:George Loewenstein
43:History of concept
25:curse of expertise
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348:Adverse selection
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1801:False balance
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976:(1): 98–113.
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55:Colin Camerer
52:
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36:
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30:
26:
22:
1786:In education
1753:
1737:Other biases
1723:Verification
1708:Survivorship
1658:Non-response
1631:Healthy user
1573:Substitution
1548:Self-serving
1390:
1344:Confirmation
1312:Availability
1260:Acquiescence
1134:
1125:
1115:
1104:. Retrieved
1100:
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227:techniques.
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199:young people
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155:Applications
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137:underwriting
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131:Implications
118:
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63:
48:
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37:
28:
24:
20:
18:
1853:Publication
1806:Vietnam War
1653:Length time
1636:Information
1578:Time-saving
1438:Horn effect
1428:Halo effect
1376:Distinction
1285:Attribution
1280:Attentional
681:Reprinted:
307:To-do lists
292:peer review
251:– see also
1816:South Asia
1791:Liking gap
1603:In animals
1568:Status quo
1483:Negativity
1386:Egocentric
1361:Congruence
1339:Commitment
1329:Blind spot
1317:Mean world
1307:Automation
1201:Audio help
1192:2019-12-23
1120:Berg, Al.
1106:2021-04-07
440:References
327:detective
325:insightful
321:Dr. Watson
277:See also:
104:involving
102:Paul Bloom
1884:Debiasing
1863:White hat
1858:Reporting
1771:Inductive
1688:Selection
1648:Lead time
1621:Estimator
1598:Zero-risk
1563:Spotlight
1543:Restraint
1533:Proximity
1518:Precision
1478:Narrative
1433:Hindsight
1418:Frequency
1398:Emotional
1371:Declinism
1302:Authority
1275:Anchoring
1265:Ambiguity
1074:1076-898X
978:CiteSeerX
852:CiteSeerX
618:CiteSeerX
284:Academics
273:Academics
169:Education
160:Marketing
125:pantomime
1923:Category
1781:Inherent
1744:Academic
1718:Systemic
1703:Spectrum
1683:Sampling
1663:Observer
1626:Forecast
1538:Response
1498:Optimism
1493:Omission
1488:Normalcy
1458:In-group
1453:Implicit
1366:Cultural
1270:Affinity
1203: ·
996:Archived
948:24667826
908:PLOS ONE
886:Archived
882:18588234
874:17576275
800:26 April
767:Archived
719:12897366
644:Archived
579:27169504
527:APS News
335:See also
203:learning
191:training
183:learners
121:charades
1903:General
1901:Lists:
1836:Ukraine
1761:Funding
1523:Present
1508:Outcome
1413:Framing
1190: (
1161:minutes
1082:1081055
939:3965426
916:Bibcode
763:2006799
710:1743746
640:8193254
475:1081055
408:Shoshin
211:concept
1908:Memory
1821:Sweden
1811:Norway
1678:Recall
1448:Impact
1324:Belief
1242:Biases
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502:248305
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1796:Media
1766:FUTON
1078:S2CID
999:(PDF)
966:(PDF)
889:(PDF)
878:S2CID
840:(PDF)
822:(PDF)
770:(PDF)
759:JSTOR
647:(PDF)
636:S2CID
606:(PDF)
575:S2CID
538:(PDF)
523:(PDF)
498:JSTOR
471:S2CID
237:ethos
207:skill
31:is a
1070:ISSN
1022:ISBN
944:PMID
870:PMID
802:2016
715:PMID
565:ISBN
189:and
177:The
147:").
19:The
1843:Net
1728:Wet
1062:doi
988:doi
934:PMC
924:doi
862:doi
705:PMC
697:doi
673:doi
628:doi
557:doi
463:doi
247:or
197:of
27:or
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655:^
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510:^
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256:.
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