56:
Credence values can be based entirely on subjective feelings. For example, if Alice is fairly certain that she saw Bob at the grocery store on Monday, then she might say, "I believe with 90% credence that Bob was at the grocery store on Monday." If the prize for being correct is $ 100, then Alice
57:
will wager $ 89 that her memory is accurate, but she would not be willing to wager $ 91 or more. Given that Alice is 90% credent, this level of belief can be expressed as gambling odds in the following ways:
49:
If a bag contains 4 red marbles and 1 blue marble, and a person withdraws one marble at random, then they should believe with 80% credence that the random marble will be red. In this example, the
27:
will land on heads the next time it is flipped (minus the probability that the coin lands on its edge). If the prize for correctly predicting the coin flip is $ 100, then a reasonable
153:
23:
is a statistical term that expresses how much a person believes that a proposition is true. As an example, a reasonable person will believe with close to 50% credence that a
42:, and a person's level of credence is directly related to the odds at which they will place a bet. Credence is especially important in
124:
173:
28:
38:
strength, expressed as a percentage. Credence values range from 0% to 100%. Credence is closely related to
43:
147:
167:
50:
24:
73:
The return on a $ 100 wager is $ 11.11 (plus the $ 100 initial wager).
35:
31:
person will wager $ 49 on heads, but will not wager $ 51 on heads.
78:
39:
102:
152:: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (
134:. Archived from the original on 29 August 2014
8:
103:"Credence – a measure of belief strength"
96:
94:
125:"Notes on Bayesian Confirmation Theory"
90:
145:
7:
14:
53:of drawing a red marble is 80%.
64:1 / 9 fractional odds (1 to 9)
1:
190:
81:for conversion equations.
34:Credence is a measure of
174:Bayesian statistics
132:New York University
123:Strevens, Michael.
70:−900 moneyline odds
44:Bayesian statistics
67:1.11 decimal odds
181:
158:
157:
151:
143:
141:
139:
129:
120:
114:
113:
111:
109:
101:Critch, Andrew.
98:
77:See the article
21:degree of belief
189:
188:
184:
183:
182:
180:
179:
178:
164:
163:
162:
161:
144:
137:
135:
127:
122:
121:
117:
107:
105:
100:
99:
92:
87:
12:
11:
5:
187:
185:
177:
176:
166:
165:
160:
159:
115:
89:
88:
86:
83:
75:
74:
71:
68:
65:
62:
13:
10:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
186:
175:
172:
171:
169:
155:
149:
133:
126:
119:
116:
104:
97:
95:
91:
84:
82:
80:
72:
69:
66:
63:
60:
59:
58:
54:
52:
47:
45:
41:
37:
32:
30:
26:
22:
18:
136:. Retrieved
131:
118:
106:. Retrieved
76:
61:90% credence
55:
48:
33:
29:risk-neutral
20:
16:
15:
138:18 December
108:18 December
51:probability
85:References
25:fair coin
168:Category
148:cite web
17:Credence
36:belief
128:(PDF)
154:link
140:2014
110:2014
79:odds
40:odds
19:or
170::
150:}}
146:{{
130:.
93:^
46:.
156:)
142:.
112:.
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Additional terms may apply.