225:
257:("the difference between expected load and anticipated electricity production from the range of renewable energy sources"). In certain times of the year (namely spring and summer), the curves create a "belly" appearance in the midday that then drastically increases portraying an "arch" similar to the neck of a duck, consequently the name "The Duck Chart." This "neck" represents a ramp speed of between 10 and 17 GW in 3 hours (afternoon) in 2020 which has to be supplied by flexible generation. During the midday, large amounts of solar energy are created, which partially contributes to lower demand for additional electricity.
246:
study, the U.S. Energy
Information Administration, found that the wholesale energy market prices over the past six months during the 5 pm to 8 pm period (the "neck" of the duck) have increased to $ 60 per megawatt-hour, compared to about $ 35 per megawatt-hour in the same time frame in 2016. However, on the other side they have measured a drastic decrease in the midday prices, nearing $ 15 per megawatt-hour. These high peaks and deep valleys are only showing continued trends of going further apart making this Duck Curve even more prevalent as
710:
required from the generat ion fleet in the past, both upward and downward. Furthermore, solar generation does not provide significant power at the hours ending 19:00 to 21:00, which leads to reliance on gas and other non-solar generation after sunset. The continuing decline in dispatchable generation in the ISO as dispatchable units retire is beginning to challenge the ISO system's ability to meet net peak demand after sunset and flexible capacity requirements.
22:
262:
exists to power the world, but there is a current lack of infrastructure to store solar energy for later use. An oversupply of energy during low demand coupled with a lack of supply during high demand explains the large disparity between midday and evening energy prices. As of 2022, up to 6 GWh is shifted per day from low price to high price periods.
261:
impacts the curve. Increasing battery storage can mitigate the issues of solar abundance during the day. When excess solar energy is stored during the day and used in the evening, the price disparity between inexpensive midday and expensive evening energy can be reduced. Enough total solar technology
245:
The
California Independent System Operator (CAISO) has been monitoring and analyzing the Duck Curve and its future expectations for about a half a century now and their biggest finding is the growing gap between morning and evening hours prices relative to midday hours prices. According to their 2016
91:
is no longer available. In locations where a substantial amount of solar electric capacity has been installed, the amount of power that must be generated from sources other than solar or wind displays a rapid increase around sunset and peaks in the mid-evening hours, producing a graph that resembles
709:
The growing amount of photovoltaic solar generation that is interconnected to the ISO grid continues to change the ISO's net load profile and creates more challenges and uncertainty for ISO operations. The result is a constantly increasing ramping requirement, significantly more than what has been
111:. Storage such as dammed hydropower can fix these issues if it can be implemented. Short term use batteries, at a large enough scale of use, can help to flatten the duck curve and prevent generator use fluctuation and can help to maintain voltage profile.
224:
107:, after times of high solar generation, power companies must rapidly increase other forms of power generation around the time of sunset to compensate for the loss of solar generation, a major concern for grid operators where there is rapid
143:
These can be colocated with solar power plants that are designed with DC capacity above their AC rating, or at other suitable sites, including old fossil fuel plants so as to utilize their existing transmission infrastructure (e.g. the
228:
Sources of electricity generation in
California in 2020. Because these graphs do not display energy demand, they are not Duck Curves themselves, but demonstrate daily and seasonal variation in power production.
804:
216:
A major challenge is deploying mitigating capacity at a rate that keeps up with the growth of solar energy production. The effects of the duck curve have happened faster than anticipated.
660:
By charging up in the middle of the day, LDV fleets on EVgo's network also help to address the duck curve — where midday net load drops, driven by lots of solar flooding onto the grid
55:
The orange curve rises steeply from 17:00 to 18:00 as the sun sets, requiring about 5 gigawatt of generating capacity from dispatchable sources to come on line within one hour.
119:
Methods for coping with the rapid increase in demand at sunset reflected in the duck curve, which becomes more serious as the penetration of solar generation grows, include:
770:
460:
655:
753:
796:
701:
612:
even out the "solar duck curve". . install batteries and west-facing panels, which helps stretch solar generation into the afternoon-evening peak.
76:
53:
Data is for the State of
California on October 22, 2016 (a Saturday), a day when the wind power output was low and steady throughout the day.
603:
417:
672:
841:
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624:
574:
836:
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377:
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186:
145:
545:
124:
108:
41:
100:, significant adoption of solar generation has led to the more pronounced curve known as the Nessie curve.
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72:
846:
97:
151:
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generation. The graph resembles a sitting duck, and thus the term was created. Used in utility-scale
21:
192:
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is a graph of power production over the course of a day that shows the timing imbalance between
797:"Battery storage load shifting up to 6GWh a day on CAISO grid; operator eyes SoC-linked prices"
196:
328:
247:
16:
Graph showing the timing imbalance between peak demand and renewable electricity production
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821:
409:
Denholm, Paul; O'Connell, Matthew; Brinkman, Gregory; Jorgenson, Jennie (November 2015).
178:
104:
830:
354:
317:"Explainable Artificial Intelligent as a solution approach to the Duck Curve problem"
350:"Solar power's greatest challenge was discovered 10 years ago. It looks like a duck"
271:
129:
Orienting some solar collectors toward the west to maximize generation near sunset.
411:"Overgeneration from Solar Energy in California: A Field Guide to the Duck Chart"
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316:
88:
68:
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from the west where the sun is shining to the east where the sun is low or set
201:
172:
648:"Electric Ridesharing Benefits the Grid, and EVgo Has the Data to Prove It"
604:"Solar tariffs reshaped to favour batteries, EVs, and west-facing panels"
175:, storing surplus electricity production in chemical form, e.g. hydrogen
87:
In some energy markets, daily peak demand occurs after sunset, when
223:
20:
93:
181:
production from water during the peak hours of Solar production
673:"The California Duck Curve Is Real, and Bigger Than Expected"
165:
Use of batteries in electric vehicles for temporary storage (
436:"IE Questions: Why Is California Trying To Behead The Duck?"
723:"EIA Data Reveals California's Real and Growing Duck Curve"
516:"What the Duck Curve Tells Us About Managing A Green Grid"
310:
308:
491:"Hawaii's Solar-Grid Landscape and the 'Nessie Curve'"
378:"California's Grid Geeks: Flattening the 'duck curve'"
315:
Azemena, Henri Joël; Ayadi, Ali; Samet, Ahmed (2022).
747:"Final Flexible Capacity Needs Assessment for 2022"
597:
595:
40:(the duck curve) supply of electrical power from
822:Energy Storage and the California "Duck Curve"
752:. California ISO. 14 May 2021. pp. 9–10.
741:
739:
8:
695:"2021 Summer Loads and Resources Assessment"
568:
566:
461:"Charting Hawaii's Spectacular Solar Growth"
253:A crucial part of this curve comes from the
700:. California ISO. 23 May 2021. p. 36.
625:"It's time to start wasting solar energy"
332:
295:"California ISO - Renewables Reporting"
283:
658:from the original on 18 October 2020.
546:"The Solar Power Duck Curve Explained"
434:Wirfs-Brock, Jordan (2 October 2014).
77:California Independent System Operator
75:, the term was coined in 2012 by the
7:
759:from the original on 7 January 2022.
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429:
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418:National Renewable Energy Laboratory
404:
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807:from the original on 29 April 2022.
707:from the original on 12 May 2021.
602:Vorrath, Sophie (30 August 2020).
14:
795:Murray, Cameron (13 April 2022).
348:Roberts, David (20 March 2018).
51:supply of solar electrical power
136:Pumped-storage hydroelectricity
544:Wallach, Omri (4 April 2022).
250:production continues to grow.
141:Battery storage power stations
1:
550:Elements by Visual Capitalist
771:"A world turned upside down"
575:"Teaching the "Duck" to Fly"
161:Ice storage air conditioning
646:Pyper, Julia (9 May 2019).
334:10.1016/j.procs.2022.09.333
208:Electric power transmission
33:Demand for electrical power
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132:Energy storage including:
842:Electric power generation
321:Procedia Computer Science
220:Duck curve in California
187:Energy demand management
146:Moss Landing Power Plant
125:dispatchable generation
109:growth of photovoltaics
652:www.greentechmedia.com
242:
156:thermal energy storage
73:electricity generation
56:
465:The Energy Collective
420:. NREL/TP-6A20-65023.
227:
115:Mitigation strategies
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152:Solar thermal energy
103:Without any form of
92:the silhouette of a
801:Energy Storage News
193:Time-of-use pricing
627:. 29 December 2020
493:. 10 February 2014
243:
57:
675:. 3 November 2016
376:Staple, Gregory.
240: Solar power
234: Natural gas
197:real-time pricing
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837:Economics curves
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37:Orange curve:
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847:Solar energy
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778:. Retrieved
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726:. Retrieved
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677:. Retrieved
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629:. Retrieved
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608:RenewEconomy
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582:. Retrieved
573:Lazar, Jim.
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469:the original
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42:dispatchable
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631:31 December
555:28 December
259:Curtailment
89:solar power
83:Solar power
69:solar power
65:peak demand
48:Gray curve:
30:Blue curve:
831:Categories
780:1 December
728:1 December
679:10 January
497:10 January
475:4 February
445:29 October
278:References
204:technology
202:Smart grid
195:(TOU) and
173:Power-to-X
61:duck curve
523:caiso.com
382:Green Biz
98:In Hawaii
805:Archived
754:Archived
702:Archived
656:Archived
584:29 April
529:29 April
361:20 March
266:See also
255:net load
44:sources,
238:
232:
757:(PDF)
750:(PDF)
705:(PDF)
698:(PDF)
580:. RAP
578:(PDF)
519:(PDF)
414:(PDF)
387:9 May
154:with
782:2017
730:2017
681:2017
633:2020
586:2015
557:2022
531:2015
499:2017
477:2015
447:2016
389:2021
363:2018
94:duck
67:and
59:The
355:Vox
329:doi
325:207
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