95:(IP), a measure of the number of outs a team made while a pitcher was in the game. Since most outs rely on fielding, the results from calculations using IP are not truly independent of team defense. While the creators of DICE, FIP and similar statistics all suggest they are "defense independent", others have pointed out that their formulas involve (IP). IP is a statistical measure of how many outs were made while a pitcher was pitching. This includes those made by fielders who are typically involved in more than two thirds of the outs. These critics claim this makes pitchers' DICE or FIP highly dependent on the defensive play of their fielders.
74:, and, more recently, fly ball percentage, ground ball percentage, and (to a much lesser extent) line drive percentage. By focusing on these statistics and ignoring what happens once a ball is put in play, which – on most plays – the pitcher has little control over, DIPS claims to offer a clearer picture of the pitcher's true ability.
1154:
1194:
became the first to detail and publicize these effects to the baseball research community when he wrote on rec.sport.baseball, "I've been working on a pitching evaluation tool and thought I'd post it here to get some feedback. I call it 'Defensive
Independent Pitching' and what it does is evaluate a
1235:
published his own findings in 2003. Tippett concluded that the differences between pitchers in preventing hits on balls in play were at least partially the result of the pitcher's skill. Tippett analyzed certain groups of pitchers that appear to be able to reduce the number of hits allowed on balls
541:
Dave
Studeman of The Hardball Times derived Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP), a regressed version of FIP. Calculated like FIP, it differs in that it normalizes the number of home runs the pitcher allows, replacing a pitcher's actual home run total with an expected home run total (xHR).
1240:
was more volatile on an annual basis than the rates at which they gave up home runs or walks. It was this greater volatility that had led McCracken to conclude pitchers had "little or no control" over hits on balls in play. But
Tippett also found large and significant differences between pitchers'
1253:
McCracken helped us realize that a slew of other factors go into whether a ball hit into play falls for a hit. For many people in the game and others who simply watch it, our ability to recognize the influence of defense, park effects, and dumb luck can be traced back to that one little article".
1214:
and other "trick" pitchers, a factor that McCracken mentioned a few days after his original announcement of his research findings in 1999, in a posting on the rec.sport.baseball.analysis Usenet site on
November 23, 1999, when he wrote: "Also to is that, anecdotally, I believe pitchers with trick
1222:
In later postings on the rec.sport.baseball site during 1999 and 2000 (prior to the publication of his widely read article on
BaseballProspectus.com in 2001), McCracken also discussed other pitcher characteristics that might influence BABIP. In 2002 McCracken created and published version 2.0 of
1252:
wrote in 2012, "When Voros McCracken wrote his seminal piece on pitching and defense 11 years ago, he helped change the way people—fans, writers, even general managers—think about run prevention in baseball. Where once we used to throw most of the blame for a hit on the pitcher who gave it up,
1244:
However, improvements to DIPS that look at more nuanced defense-independent stats than strikeouts, home runs, and walks (such as groundball rate), have been able to account for many of the BABIP differences that Tippet identified without reintroducing the noise from defense variability.
732:
Baseball
Prospectus invented this statistic, which takes into account balls in play and adjusts for balls in play. For example, if a pitcher has a high xFIP, but also induces a lot of ground balls and popups, his SIERA will be lower than his xFIP. The calculations for it are as follows:
213:
In that equation, "HR" is home runs, "BB" is walks, "HBP" is hit batters, "K" is strikeouts, and "IP" is innings pitched. That equation gives a number that is better at predicting a pitcher's ERA in the following year than the pitcher's actual ERA in the current year.
77:
The most controversial part of DIPS is the idea that pitchers have little influence over what happens to balls that are put into play. Some people believe this has been well-established (see below), primarily by showing the large variability of most pitchers'
1199:, most of the baseball research community believed that individual pitchers had an inherent ability to prevent hits on balls in play. McCracken reasoned that if this ability existed, it would be noticeable in a pitcher's 'Batting Average on Balls In Play' (
739:
1490:
526:
where lgERA is the league average ERA, lgHR is the number of home runs in the league, lgBB is the number of walks in the league, lgK is the number of strikeouts in the league, and lgIP is the number of innings pitched in the league.
533:, a popular baseball statistics website, uses a slightly different FIP equation, instead using 3*(BB+HBP-IBB) rather than simply 3*(BB) where "HBP" stands for batters hit by pitch and "IBB" stands for intentional base on balls.
1570:
1203:). His research found the opposite to be true: that while a pitcher's ability to cause strikeouts or prevent home runs remained somewhat constant from season to season, his ability to prevent hits on balls in play did not.
82:
from year to year. However, there is a wide variation in career BABIP among pitchers, and this seems to correlate with career success. For instance, no pitcher in the Hall of Fame has a below-average career BABIP.
1309:
For an extended overview of the development of DIPS and alternative formulas, see Dan Basco and
Michael Davies, "The Many Flavors of DIPS: A History and an Overview," Society for American Baseball Research,
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1149:{\displaystyle SIERA=6.145-16.986(SO/PA)+11.434(BB/PA)-1.858((GB-FB-PU)/PA)+7.653((SO/PA)^{2})+/-6.664(((GB-FB-PU)/PA)^{2})+10.130(SO/PA)((GB-FB-PU)/PA)-5.195(BB/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA)}
719:
1210:" (dERA), the most well-known defense-independent pitching statistic. McCracken's formula for dERA is very complicated, with a number of steps. DIPS ERA is not as useful for
1248:
Despite other criticisms, the work by McCracken on DIPS is regarded by many in the sabermetric community as the most important piece of baseball research in many years. As
304:
In that equation, "HR" is home runs, "BB" is walks, "K" is strikeouts, and "IP" is innings pitched. That equation usually gives a number that is nothing close to a normal
1223:
dERA, which incorporates the ability of knuckleballers and other types of pitchers to affect the number of hits allowed on balls hit in the field of play (BHFP).
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pitcher base strictly on the statistics his defense has no ability to affect..." Until the publication of a more widely read article in 2001, however, on
1414:
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where xHR is calculated using the league average home run per fly ball rate (lgHR/FB) multiplied by the number of fly balls the pitcher has allowed.
2007:
1342:"Sports Mogul | Official Site for Baseball Mogul and Football Mogul | Online Multi-Player Games for Fantasy, Rotisserie and Computer Sports Fans"
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where C is a constant that renders league FIP for the time period in question equal to league ERA for the same period. It is calculated as:
2012:
2168:
2002:
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independently derived a similar formula, known as
Fielding Independent Pitching, which is very close to the results of dERA and DICE.
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deliveries (e.g. Knuckleballers) might post consistently lower $ H numbers than other pitchers. I looked at
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Typically, the lgHR/FB is around 10.5%, meaning 10.5% of fly balls go for home runs. In 2015, it was 11.4%.
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career BABIP. In many cases, it was these differences that accounted for the pitchers' relative success.
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308:(this is the FIP core), so the equation used is more often (but not always) this one:
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A simple formula, known as
Defense-Independent Component ERA (DICE), was created by
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1328:"Granny Baseball: Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) Isn't Fielding Independent"
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hit into the field of play (BHFP). Like McCracken, Tippett found that pitchers'
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1595:"BBTF's Newsblog Discussion :: vorosmccracken: Me Being Arrogant Again"
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Voros McCracken, "Pitching and
Defense: How Much Control Do Hurlers Have?,"
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To better evaluate pitchers in light of his theory, McCracken developed "
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1367:"Defense-Independent Component ERA (DICE) Calculator (Baseball)"
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50:'s effectiveness based only on statistics that do not involve
1620:"BBTF's Primate Studies Discussion :: DIPS Version 2.0"
516:{\displaystyle C=lgERA-{13(lgHR)+3(lgBB)-2(lgK) \over lgIP}}
1638:"Defense Independent Pitching Stats, Version 2.0 Formula"
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DIPS ERA was added to ESPN.com's Sortable Stats in 2004.
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Controversy over DIPS was heightened when Tom Tippett at
203:{\displaystyle DICE=3.00+{\frac {13HR+3(BB+HBP)-2K}{IP}}}
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1686:Jonah Keri, "Fantasy Fiesta: Pitching Stock Tips,"
629:{\displaystyle xFIP={\frac {13(xHR)+3BB-2K}{IP}}+C}
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202:
1491:"Fangraphs - Pitching League Stats - Batted Ball"
1219:'s career and that seems to bear out slightly".
383:{\displaystyle FIP={\frac {13HR+3BB-2K}{IP}}+C}
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294:{\displaystyle FIP={\frac {13HR+3BB-2K}{IP}}}
8:
1553:"Defense Independent Pitching Stats Part II"
1674:"GB%, LD%, FB% | Sabermetrics Library"
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1540:BaseballProspectus.com, January 23, 2001
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18:Defense independent pitching statistics
1413:: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (
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7:
714:{\displaystyle xHR=FlyBalls*lgHR/FB}
91:Each of the following formulae uses
1727:Fielding independent pitching (FIP)
2169:Jaffe Wins Above Replacement Score
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1276:Defense-Independent Component ERA
2124:Batting average on balls in play
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2224:Value over replacement player
2154:Fielding independent pitching
1453:FIP — Hardball Times Glossary
36:fielding independent pitching
1642:www.baseballthinkfactory.org
1624:www.baseballthinkfactory.org
44:defense independent pitching
1315:Fall 2010, Vol. 32, Issue 2
46:) is intended to measure a
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1312:Baseball Research Journal,
27:Type of baseball statistic
1557:www.futilityinfielder.com
2229:Weighted on-base average
2038:Strikeout-to-walk ratio
1885:Walk-to-strikeout ratio
1706:"2020 MLB Stat Leaders"
1271:Defense-Independent ERA
1208:Defense-Independent ERA
42:) (also referred to as
2234:Wins Above Replacement
2214:Out of zone plays made
2091:Defensive indifference
1918:Stolen base percentage
1599:Baseball Think Factory
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2239:Win probability added
1875:On-base plus slugging
1660:Diamond Mind Baseball
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2219:Ultimate zone rating
2139:Defensive Runs Saved
1281:Pitch quantification
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2265:Pitching statistics
2129:Batting park factor
2061:Fielding percentage
1793:Slugging percentage
1767:Baseball statistics
1656:"Baseball Articles"
1266:Baseball statistics
1197:Baseball Prospectus
2179:Power–speed number
1951:Pitchers of record
1788:On-base percentage
1389:www.tangotiger.net
1371:Captain Calculator
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531:The Hardball Times
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2199:Secondary average
2149:Extrapolated Runs
1165:plate appearances
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58:). These include
16:(Redirected from
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1395:on 4 August 2004
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1344:. Archived from
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1330:. June 10, 2010.
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1571:"Google Groups"
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1693:, June 7, 2012
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2215:
2212:
2210:
2207:
2205:
2202:
2200:
2197:
2195:
2194:Runs produced
2192:
2190:
2187:
2185:
2182:
2180:
2177:
2175:
2172:
2170:
2167:
2165:
2162:
2160:
2157:
2155:
2152:
2150:
2147:
2145:
2144:Exit velocity
2142:
2140:
2137:
2135:
2134:Catcher's ERA
2132:
2130:
2127:
2125:
2122:
2120:
2117:
2115:
2114:Adjusted ERA+
2112:
2111:
2109:
2107:
2103:
2097:
2094:
2092:
2089:
2087:
2084:
2082:
2081:Total chances
2079:
2077:
2074:
2072:
2069:
2067:
2064:
2062:
2059:
2058:
2056:
2054:
2050:
2044:
2041:
2039:
2036:
2034:
2031:
2029:
2026:
2024:
2023:Complete game
2021:
2019:
2018:Quality start
2016:
2014:
2011:
2009:
2006:
2004:
2001:
1999:
1996:
1994:
1991:
1989:
1986:
1984:
1981:
1979:
1976:
1972:
1969:
1968:
1967:
1964:
1962:
1959:
1957:
1954:
1952:
1949:
1947:
1944:
1942:
1939:
1938:
1936:
1934:
1930:
1924:
1921:
1919:
1916:
1914:
1911:
1909:
1906:
1905:
1903:
1901:
1897:
1891:
1888:
1886:
1883:
1881:
1880:Times on base
1878:
1876:
1873:
1871:
1870:Sacrifice fly
1868:
1866:
1863:
1861:
1858:
1856:
1853:
1851:
1848:
1846:
1843:
1841:
1838:
1836:
1833:
1831:
1828:
1824:
1821:
1819:
1816:
1814:
1811:
1809:
1806:
1804:
1801:
1800:
1799:
1796:
1794:
1791:
1789:
1786:
1784:
1781:
1780:
1778:
1776:
1772:
1768:
1761:
1756:
1754:
1749:
1747:
1742:
1741:
1738:
1732:
1728:
1725:
1724:
1720:
1711:
1707:
1701:
1698:
1691:
1688:
1683:
1680:
1675:
1669:
1666:
1661:
1657:
1651:
1648:
1643:
1639:
1633:
1630:
1625:
1621:
1615:
1612:
1600:
1596:
1590:
1587:
1576:
1575:Google Groups
1572:
1566:
1563:
1558:
1554:
1548:
1545:
1541:
1535:
1532:
1521:
1520:Google Groups
1517:
1511:
1508:
1496:
1492:
1486:
1483:
1471:
1467:
1461:
1458:
1454:
1449:
1446:
1434:
1430:
1424:
1421:
1416:
1410:
1394:
1390:
1386:
1380:
1377:
1372:
1368:
1362:
1359:
1348:on 2007-05-28
1347:
1343:
1337:
1334:
1329:
1323:
1320:
1316:
1313:
1306:
1303:
1296:
1292:
1289:
1287:
1284:
1282:
1279:
1277:
1274:
1272:
1269:
1267:
1264:
1263:
1259:
1257:
1254:
1251:
1246:
1242:
1239:
1234:
1226:
1224:
1220:
1218:
1217:Tim Wakefield
1213:
1209:
1204:
1202:
1198:
1193:
1185:
1183:
1182:
1178:
1174:
1170:
1166:
1162:
1140:
1137:
1133:
1126:
1123:
1120:
1117:
1114:
1111:
1108:
1105:
1096:
1090:
1087:
1083:
1079:
1076:
1070:
1067:
1061:
1058:
1054:
1047:
1044:
1041:
1038:
1035:
1032:
1029:
1026:
1014:
1011:
1007:
1003:
1000:
994:
991:
983:
975:
972:
968:
961:
958:
955:
952:
949:
946:
943:
940:
928:
925:
921:
917:
909:
901:
898:
894:
890:
887:
878:
875:
869:
866:
862:
855:
852:
849:
846:
843:
840:
837:
834:
825:
822:
816:
813:
809:
805:
802:
796:
793:
787:
784:
780:
776:
773:
767:
764:
761:
758:
755:
752:
749:
746:
743:
736:
735:
734:
727:
725:
708:
705:
701:
697:
694:
691:
688:
685:
682:
679:
676:
673:
670:
667:
664:
661:
658:
655:
652:
649:
642:
641:
640:
623:
620:
614:
611:
606:
603:
600:
597:
594:
591:
588:
582:
579:
576:
570:
564:
561:
558:
555:
552:
545:
544:
543:
536:
534:
532:
528:
507:
504:
501:
498:
490:
487:
484:
478:
475:
469:
466:
463:
460:
454:
451:
445:
442:
439:
436:
430:
424:
421:
418:
415:
412:
409:
406:
403:
396:
395:
394:
377:
374:
368:
365:
360:
357:
354:
351:
348:
345:
342:
339:
336:
333:
327:
324:
321:
318:
311:
310:
309:
307:
285:
282:
277:
274:
271:
268:
265:
262:
259:
256:
253:
250:
244:
241:
238:
235:
228:
227:
226:
224:
217:
215:
194:
191:
186:
183:
180:
174:
171:
168:
165:
162:
159:
153:
150:
147:
144:
141:
135:
132:
129:
126:
123:
120:
117:
110:
109:
108:
106:
98:
96:
94:
86:
84:
81:
75:
73:
69:
65:
61:
57:
53:
49:
45:
41:
37:
33:
19:
2189:Runs created
2184:Range factor
2153:
2106:Sabermetrics
1993:Perfect game
1900:Base running
1830:Hits per run
1709:
1700:
1682:
1668:
1659:
1650:
1641:
1632:
1623:
1614:
1603:. Retrieved
1601:. 2007-11-16
1598:
1589:
1578:. Retrieved
1574:
1565:
1556:
1547:
1534:
1523:. Retrieved
1519:
1510:
1498:. Retrieved
1494:
1485:
1473:. Retrieved
1469:
1460:
1448:
1436:. Retrieved
1432:
1423:
1397:. Retrieved
1393:the original
1388:
1379:
1370:
1361:
1350:. Retrieved
1346:the original
1336:
1322:
1311:
1305:
1286:Sabermetrics
1255:
1247:
1243:
1233:Diamond Mind
1230:
1221:
1205:
1189:
1179:, and PU is
1159:where SO is
1158:
731:
723:
638:
540:
529:
525:
392:
303:
221:
212:
102:
90:
76:
54:(except the
43:
39:
35:
29:
2204:Speed Score
2096:Passed ball
1913:Stolen base
1840:Total bases
1227:Controversy
1173:ground ball
68:hit batters
2244:Win Shares
2159:Game score
2033:Wild pitch
1835:Grand slam
1605:2020-08-23
1580:2020-08-23
1525:2020-08-23
1399:13 January
1352:2006-02-13
1297:References
1250:Jonah Keri
1161:strikeouts
64:strikeouts
2119:Base runs
1998:No-hitter
1983:Strikeout
1690:Grantland
1500:25 August
1495:Fangraphs
1475:25 August
1470:Fangraphs
1438:25 August
1433:Fangraphs
1190:In 1999,
1121:−
1112:−
1097:∗
1068:−
1042:−
1033:−
956:−
947:−
926:−
850:−
841:−
823:−
765:−
686:∗
601:−
476:−
425:−
355:−
272:−
223:Tom Tango
181:−
107:in 1998:
62:allowed,
60:home runs
2259:Category
2174:Pop time
2053:Fielding
1933:Pitching
1818:Home run
1409:cite web
1260:See also
1177:fly ball
1175:, FB is
1171:, GB is
1167:, BB is
1163:, PA is
87:Formulae
52:fielders
32:baseball
2028:Shutout
1775:Batting
1731:MLB.com
1186:Origins
56:catcher
48:pitcher
2071:Putout
2066:Assist
2043:Maddux
1971:Earned
1813:Triple
1808:Double
1803:Single
1466:"xFIP"
1181:pop-up
995:10.130
797:11.434
768:16.986
2076:Error
1429:"FIP"
1238:BABIP
1201:BABIP
1071:5.195
929:6.664
879:7.653
826:1.858
762:6.145
728:SIERA
80:BABIP
72:walks
2209:NERD
2008:BB/9
2003:WHIP
1988:Walk
1961:Hold
1956:Save
1860:Bunt
1855:Walk
1710:ESPN
1502:2016
1477:2016
1440:2016
1415:link
1401:2022
537:xFIP
133:3.00
99:DICE
2013:K/9
1978:ERA
1966:Run
1908:Run
1845:RBI
1798:Hit
306:ERA
218:FIP
40:FIP
30:In
2261::
1729:-
1708:.
1658:.
1640:.
1622:.
1597:.
1573:.
1555:.
1518:.
1493:.
1468:.
1431:.
1411:}}
1407:{{
1387:.
1369:.
1317:.
571:13
431:13
334:13
251:13
142:13
70:,
66:,
34:,
1759:e
1752:t
1745:v
1712:.
1695:.
1676:.
1662:.
1644:.
1626:.
1608:.
1583:.
1559:.
1542:.
1528:.
1504:.
1479:.
1455:.
1442:.
1417:)
1403:.
1373:.
1355:.
1144:)
1141:A
1138:P
1134:/
1130:)
1127:U
1124:P
1118:B
1115:F
1109:B
1106:G
1103:(
1100:(
1094:)
1091:A
1088:P
1084:/
1080:B
1077:B
1074:(
1065:)
1062:A
1059:P
1055:/
1051:)
1048:U
1045:P
1039:B
1036:F
1030:B
1027:G
1024:(
1021:(
1018:)
1015:A
1012:P
1008:/
1004:O
1001:S
998:(
992:+
989:)
984:2
980:)
976:A
973:P
969:/
965:)
962:U
959:P
953:B
950:F
944:B
941:G
938:(
935:(
932:(
922:/
918:+
915:)
910:2
906:)
902:A
899:P
895:/
891:O
888:S
885:(
882:(
876:+
873:)
870:A
867:P
863:/
859:)
856:U
853:P
847:B
844:F
838:B
835:G
832:(
829:(
820:)
817:A
814:P
810:/
806:B
803:B
800:(
794:+
791:)
788:A
785:P
781:/
777:O
774:S
771:(
759:=
756:A
753:R
750:E
747:I
744:S
709:B
706:F
702:/
698:R
695:H
692:g
689:l
683:s
680:l
677:l
674:a
671:B
668:y
665:l
662:F
659:=
656:R
653:H
650:x
624:C
621:+
615:P
612:I
607:K
604:2
598:B
595:B
592:3
589:+
586:)
583:R
580:H
577:x
574:(
565:=
562:P
559:I
556:F
553:x
508:P
505:I
502:g
499:l
494:)
491:K
488:g
485:l
482:(
479:2
473:)
470:B
467:B
464:g
461:l
458:(
455:3
452:+
449:)
446:R
443:H
440:g
437:l
434:(
422:A
419:R
416:E
413:g
410:l
407:=
404:C
378:C
375:+
369:P
366:I
361:K
358:2
352:B
349:B
346:3
343:+
340:R
337:H
328:=
325:P
322:I
319:F
286:P
283:I
278:K
275:2
269:B
266:B
263:3
260:+
257:R
254:H
245:=
242:P
239:I
236:F
195:P
192:I
187:K
184:2
178:)
175:P
172:B
169:H
166:+
163:B
160:B
157:(
154:3
151:+
148:R
145:H
136:+
130:=
127:E
124:C
121:I
118:D
38:(
20:)
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