325:, the combination of low economic and productivity growth and high inflation. The period was also characterized by high interest rates, which is not entirely consistent with secular stagnation. Stronger economic growth resumed and inflation declined during the 1980s. Although productivity never returned to peak levels, it did enjoy a revival with the growth of the computer and communications industries in the 1980s and 1990s. This enabled a recovery in GDP growth rates; however, debt in the period following 1982 grew at a much faster rate than GDP. The U.S. economy experienced structural changes following the stagflation. Steel consumption peaked in 1973, both on an absolute and per-capita basis, and never returned to previous levels. The
409:
437:, writing in 2014, clarified that it refers to "the claim that underlying changes in the economy, such as slowing growth in the working-age population, have made episodes like the past five years in Europe and the United States, and the last 20 years in Japan, likely to happen often. That is, we will often find ourselves facing persistent shortfalls of demand, which can’t be overcome even with near-zero interest rates." At its root is "the problem of building consumer demand at a time when people are less motivated to spend".
400:
automobile in its expansionary period), and the growth of finance. In the 1980s and 1990s
Magdoff and Sweezy argued that a financial explosion of long duration was lifting the economy, but this would eventually compound the contradictions of the system, producing ever bigger speculative bubbles, and leading eventually to a resumption of overt stagnation.
96:, and suggests a change of fundamental dynamics which would play out only in its own time. Alan Sweezy described the difference: "But, whereas business-cycle theory treats depression as a temporary, though recurring, phenomenon, the theory of secular stagnation brings out the possibility that depression may become the normal condition of the economy."
522:
demography, education, inequality, globalization, energy/environment, and the overhang of consumer and government debt. A provocative 'exercise in subtraction' suggests that future growth in consumption per capita for the bottom 99 percent of the income distribution could fall below 0.5 percent per year for an extended period of decades".
183:
higher in the first half of the century, with twelve-hour work days common. There were numerous strikes and other labor movements for a ten-hour day. The tight labor market was a factor in productivity gains allowing workers to maintain or increase their nominal wages during the secular deflation that caused
467:
was so long-lasting and permanent, so many workers will never get jobs again, that we really cannot recover. A third is that there is a "persistent and disturbing reluctance of businesses to invest and consumers to spend", perhaps in part because so much of the recent gains have gone to the people at
207:
growth in the United States, primarily to the building of roads and bridges, abandonment of unneeded railroad track and reduction in railroad employment, expansion of electric utilities and improvements wholesale and retail distribution. This helped the United States, which escaped the devastation of
178:
that private investors supplied only a fraction of the money to build railroads, despite the large economic advantage railroads offered. As new territories were opened and federal land sales conducted, land had to be cleared and new homesteads established. Hundreds of thousands of immigrants came to
514:
presented his view during
November 2013 that secular (long-term) stagnation may be a reason that U.S. growth is insufficient to reach full employment: "Suppose then that the short term real interest rate that was consistent with full employment had fallen to negative two or negative three percent.
507:
of 2007–2008 was due to secular stagnation. Paul
Krugman wrote in September 2013: "here is a case for believing that the problem of maintaining adequate aggregate demand is going to be very persistent – that we may face something like the 'secular stagnation' many economists feared after World War
80:
in 1938 to "describe what he feared was the fate of the
American economy following the Great Depression of the early 1930s: a check to economic progress as investment opportunities were stunted by the closing of the frontier and the collapse of immigration". Warnings similar to secular stagnation
521:
wrote in August 2012: "Even if innovation were to continue into the future at the rate of the two decades before 2007, the U.S. faces six headwinds that are in the process of dragging long-term growth to half or less of the 1.9 percent annual rate experienced between 1860 and 2007. These include
399:
Private accumulation had a strong tendency to weak growth and high levels of excess capacity and unemployment/underemployment, which could, however, be countered in part by such exogenous factors as state spending (military and civilian), epoch-making technological innovations (for example, the
182:
The decade of the 1880s saw great growth in railroads and the steel and machinery industries. Purchase of structures and equipment increased 500% from the previous decade. Labor productivity rose 26.5% and GDP nearly doubled. The workweek during most of the 19th century was over 60 hours, being
337:
Productivity growth began to slow down sharply in developed countries after 1973, but there was a revival in the 1990s which still left productivity growth below the peak decades earlier in the 20th century. Productivity growth in the U.S. slowed again since the mid-2000s. A recent book titled
430:
criticizes secular stagnation as "a baggy concept, arguably too capacious for its own good". Warnings similar to secular stagnation theory have been issued after all deep recessions, but they all turned out to be wrong because they underestimated the potential of existing technologies.
211:
The war created pent up demand for many items, as factories had stopped producing automobiles and other civilian goods to convert to production of tanks, guns, military vehicles and supplies. Tires had been rationed due to shortages of natural rubber; however, the U.S. government built
468:
the top, and they tend to save more of their money than people—ordinary working people who can't afford to do that. A fourth is that advanced economies are just simply paying the price for years of inadequate investment in infrastructure and education, the basic ingredients of growth.
224:
refineries and aircraft engine factories during the war. After the war, commercial aviation, plastics and synthetic rubber would become major industries and synthetic ammonia was used for fertilizer. The end of armaments production freed up hundreds of thousands of
1676:
179:
the United States every year and found jobs digging canals and building railroads. Because there was little mechanization, almost all work was done by hand or with horses, mules and oxen until the last two decades of the 19th century.
396:, and Marx, and marshaling extensive empirical data, that, contrary to the usual way of thinking, stagnation or slow growth was the norm for mature, monopolistic (or oligopolistic) economies, while rapid growth was the exception.
202:
Construction of structures, residential, commercial and industrial, fell off dramatically during the depression, but housing was well on its way to recovering by the late 1930s. The depression years were the period of the highest
240:
of the postwar decades. A building boom commenced in the years following the war. Suburbs began a rapid expansion and automobile ownership increased. High-yielding crops and chemical fertilizers dramatically increased
463:, for example, has suggested that digital technologies are much less capital-absorbing, creating only little new investment demand relative to other revolutionary technologies. Another is that the damage done by the
1669:
187:
to rise in the late 19th century. Labor did suffer temporary setbacks, such as when railroads cut wages during the Long
Depression of the mid-1870s; however, this resulted in strikes throughout the nation.
1662:
974:
Whaples, Robert (June 1991). "The
Shortening of the American Work Week: An Economic and Historical Analysis of Its Context, Causes, and Consequences, The Journal of Economic History, Vol. 51, No. 2; pp.
2580:
412:
This chart compares U.S. potential GDP under two CBO forecasts (one from 2007 and one from 2016) versus the actual real GDP. It is based on a similar diagram from economist Larry
Summers from 2014.
2585:
515:
Even with artificial stimulus to demand you wouldn't see any excess demand. Even with a resumption in normal credit conditions you would have a lot of difficulty getting back to full employment."
131:, were followed by periods of stagnation intermixed with surges of growth until steadier growth resumed around 1896. The period was characterized by business bankruptcies, low interest rates and
2570:
508:
II." Krugman wrote that fiscal policy stimulus and higher inflation (to achieve a negative real rate of interest necessary to achieve full employment) may be potential solutions.
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1152:
232:
The memory of war created a need for preparedness in the United States. This resulted in constant spending for defense programs, creating what
President Eisenhower called the
1470:
2550:
2555:
1825:
1685:
265:
The use of electricity grew steadily as prices continued to fall, although at a slower rate than in the early decades. More people purchased washing machines, dryers,
911:
2068:
81:
theory have been issued after all deep recessions, but they usually turned out to be wrong because they underestimated the potential of existing technologies.
1693:
456:. The general form of the argument has been the subject of papers by Robert J. Gordon. It has also been written about by Owen. C. Paepke and Tyler Cowen.
2428:
2375:
139:(1891) the economic problems were the result of rapid changes in technology, such as railroads, steam-powered ocean ships, steel displacing iron and the
495:(a situation in which monetary policy is unable to lower nominal interest rates because these are close to zero) exacerbated by demographics factors.
2286:
197:
1893:
329:
of the United States and many other developed economies also began to decline after 1973. Health care expenditures rose to over 17% of the economy.
1431:
1898:
1689:
1996:
1991:
1986:
1980:
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2264:
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1485:
526:
408:
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1798:
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1404:
1307:
880:
848:
814:
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722:
112:
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938:
174:
The U.S. economy of the early 19th century was primarily agricultural and suffered from labor shortages. Capital was so scarce before the
1456:
2413:
956:
751:
84:
Secular stagnation refers to "a condition of negligible or no economic growth in a market-based economy". In this context, the term
2259:
1467:
1201:
659:
2477:
1419:
2211:
143:
system. Because there was so much economic growth overall, how much of this period was stagnation remains controversial. See:
872:
340:
The Great
Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick and Will (Eventually) Feel better
162:
1242:
1457:
Paul
Krugman – Conscience of a Liberal Blog – Secular Stagnation, Coalmines, Bubbles, and Larry Summers – November 16, 2013
915:
229:, which were made available for other industries. They were needed in the rapidly growing aircraft manufacturing industry.
2239:
1955:
1178:
487:
Japan has been suffering economic or secular stagnation for most of the period since the early 1990s. Economists, such as
2121:
869:
From the American System to Mass Production, 1800–1932: The Development of Manufacturing Technology in the United States
2217:
2149:
1324:
2435:
551:
287:
233:
2322:
2317:
2276:
56:, even though the growth rate may be nominally higher than in other countries not experiencing economic stagnation.
2492:
2467:
2244:
2031:
1949:
1047:
503:
Economists have asked whether the low economic growth rate in the developed world leading up to and following the
283:
started in the late 1950s. The pipeline network continued to expand. Railroad track mileage continued its decline.
2512:
2502:
2249:
530:
280:
204:
2618:
2402:
2190:
1561:
1505:
1468:
Robert J. Gordon – Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds – August 2012
1075:
In the U.S., steel consumption peaked at just under 700 kg per capita and declined to just over 400 kg by 2000.
504:
351:
274:
161:, Harris (1943) was written with the expectation that the stagnation would continue after the war ended. See:
2352:
2347:
2342:
2628:
2507:
2497:
2487:
2482:
2472:
1863:
1543:
1216:
1121:
Field, Alezander J. (2007). "U.S. Economic Growth in the Gilded Age, Journal of Macroeconomics 31": 173–190.
534:
2184:
2016:
714:
Recent Economic Changes and Their Effect on Production and Distribution of Wealth and Well-Being of Society
2623:
2254:
1515:
607:
1034:
440:
One theory is that the boost in growth by the internet and technological advancement in computers of the
261:
in countries like the United States and much of Europe. Many trends that began before the war continued:
2613:
2440:
2423:
2418:
2407:
2370:
2365:
2359:
1970:
1939:
1837:
1576:
1435:
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1094:
980:
366:
A prescient analysis of stagnation and what is now called financialization was provided in the 1980s by
2006:
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642:
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246:
31:
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1509:
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1018:
864:
460:
175:
65:
1625:
The Evolution of Progress: The End of Economic Growth and the Beginning of Human Transformation
1299:
The Evolution of Progress: The End of Economic Growth and the Beginning of Human Transformation
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1070:
942:
2311:
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1905:
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administration, while Sweezy was a former Harvard economics professor. In their 1987 book,
286:
Better roads and increased investment in the distribution system of trucks, warehouses and
2461:
2451:
2201:
2142:
2137:
2131:
1649:
1589:
1539:
The End of Work: The Decline of the Global Labor Force and the Dawn of the Post-Market Era
1537:
1474:
1432:"Marco Nappollini – Pieria.com – Secular Stagnation and Post Scarcity – November 19, 2013"
1139:
1107:
993:
567:
464:
318:
291:
254:
144:
128:
53:
41:
693:
1750:
1728:
1345:
573:
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376:
1325:"The End of Economic Growth? How the Digital Economy Could Lead to Secular Stagnation"
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2010:
1832:
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1179:
Larry Summers – U.S. Economic Prospects – Keynote Address at the NABE Conference 2014
1063:
769:
740:
667:
511:
449:
426:
421:
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in a 2009 article dismissing the threat of inflation, and became popular again when
367:
309:
never returned to the 48 hours or more that was typical before the Great Depression.
250:
236:. U.S. birth rates began to recover by the time of World War II, and turned into the
221:
124:
1086:
1922:
1915:
1910:
1779:
1774:
1718:
1600:
A Century of Innovation: Twenty Engineering Achievements That Transformed Our Lives
529:
sees a connection between secular stagnation and the regime of low interest rates (
488:
434:
266:
258:
226:
154:
77:
71:
30:"Economic immobility" redirects here. For the concept in financial economics, see
712:
99:
According to Sweezy, "the idea of secular stagnation runs through much of Keynes
2332:
1888:
1847:
1793:
1065:
Transforming the Twentieth Century: Technical Innovations and Their Consequences
441:
371:
343:
322:
17:
1378:
1361:
912:"BTS | Table 1-1: System Mileage within the United States (Statute miles)"
2116:
1420:
Paul Krugman – Bubbles, Regulation and Secular Stagnation – September 25, 2013
898:
643:"The secular stagnation hypothesis: a review of the debate and some insights."
242:
184:
801:
279:
Infrastructures: The highway system continued to expand. Construction of the
1927:
1858:
1759:
1755:
583:
346:
is one of the latest of several stagnation books written in recent decades.
237:
140:
132:
1012:"Technological Change and Economic Growth the Interwar Years and the 1990s"
297:
Mechanization of agriculture increased dramatically, especially the use of
48:
growth), usually accompanied by high unemployment. Under some definitions,
578:
385:
306:
1281:
1261:
1202:"IMF Fourteenth Annual Research Conference in Honor of Stanley Fischer"
453:
217:
1262:"Does the New Economy Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past?"
1036:
There are numerous graphs of total debt/GDP available on the Internet.
1598:
358:
by C. Owen Paepke were earlier books that predicted the stagnation.
459:
Secular stagnation been linked to the rise of the digital economy.
1087:"U.S. Productivity Performance in Perspective, Business Economics"
407:
273:
became increasingly prevalent in households and businesses. See:
52:
means significantly slower than potential growth as estimated by
890:
1658:
841:
A Great Leap Forward: 1930s Depression and U.S. Economic Growth
208:
World War II, to quickly convert back to peacetime production.
45:
771:
A History of Industrial Power in the United States, 1730–1930
424:
invoked the term and concept during a 2013 speech at the IMF.
245:
and greatly lowered the cost of food, giving consumers more
380:. Magdoff was a former economic advisor to Vice President
1396:
The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008
742:
American and British Technology in the Nineteenth Century
448:
of the past. An example of such a great invention is the
700:. New York, London: McGraw Hill Book Co. pp. 67–82.
192:
End of stagnation in the U.S. after the Great Depression
76:
The term "secular stagnation" was originally coined by
257:. Most importantly, cheap food essentially eliminated
153:
of the 1930s and the rest of the period lasting until
1490:"The Natural Rate of Interest and Secular Stagnation"
1349:
The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry
1153:
The Recent Rise and Fall of Rapid Productivity Growth
1069:. Oxford, New York: Oxford University Press. p.
118:
Historical periods of stagnation in the United States
1190:
Hans-Werner Sin, Forget Inflation, February 26, 2009
637:
635:
2450:
2386:
2331:
2285:
2200:
2115:
2062:
1969:
1938:
1243:"Is The Economy Suffering From Secular Stagnation?"
939:"Economic History of Tractors in the United States"
1362:"Japan's Financial Crisis and Economic Stagnation"
768:
739:
803:History of Money and Banking in the United States
374:, coeditors of the independent socialist journal
362:Stagnation and the financial explosion: the 1980s
746:. London; New York: Cambridge University Press.
444:does not measure up to the boost caused by the
1566:"Technological Transformations and Long Waves"
249:. Railroad locomotives switched from steam to
1670:
1005:
1003:
834:
832:
830:
828:
826:
687:
685:
8:
1511:Turning Point: An End to the Growth Paradigm
843:. New Haven; London: Yale University Press.
1597:Constable, George; Somerville, Bob (2003).
1677:
1663:
1655:
1236:
1234:
1232:
1230:
1048:"Total Debt to GDP Trumps Everything Else"
767:Hunter, Louis C.; Bryant, Lynwood (1991).
1377:
1280:
392:, they argued, based on Keynes, Hansen,
301:. Tractor sales peaked in the mid-1950s.
294:, continued to reduce the cost of goods.
44:(traditionally measured in terms of the
27:Prolonged period of slow economic growth
1360:Hoshi, Takeo; Kashyap, Anil K. (2004).
1347:Lessons from Japan's Secular Stagnation
779:. Cambridge, Mass.; London: MIT Press.
649:occasional paper series number QEF-231.
595:
275:Diffusion of innovations#Diffusion data
216:plants. The U.S. government also built
1585:
1574:
1486:German Institute for Economic Research
1166:Stagnation and the Financial Explosion
1135:
1124:
1103:
1092:
989:
978:
809:. Ludwig Von Mises Inst. p. 165.
527:German Institute for Economic Research
390:Stagnation and the Financial Explosion
1164:Magdoff, Harry; Sweezy, Paul (1987).
416:Secular stagnation was dusted off by
113:Economic history of the United States
7:
601:
599:
198:Post–World War II economic expansion
1628:. New York, Toronto: Random House.
1302:. New York; Toronto: Random House.
1241:Inskeep, Steve (9 September 2014).
1981:British credit crisis of 1772–1773
660:"Definition of secular stagnation"
608:"Secular stagnation: Fad or fact?"
25:
1694:Commonwealth of Nations countries
1168:. New York: Monthly Review Press.
1085:Kendrick, John (1 October 1991).
1366:Journal of Economic Perspectives
1269:Journal of Economic Perspectives
1215:Krugman, Paul (15 August 2014).
717:. New York: D. Appleton and Co.
491:, attribute the stagnation to a
253:power, with a large increase in
1690:recessions in the United States
1399:. W.W. Norton Company Limited.
957:"Hours of Work in U.S. History"
696:. In Harris, Seymour E. (ed.).
694:"Chapter IV Secular Stagnation"
647:Questioni di Economia e Finanza
107:Stagnation in the United States
1217:"Secular Stagnation: The Book"
873:Johns Hopkins University Press
163:Causes of the Great Depression
72:Alvin Hansen § Stagnation
40:is a prolonged period of slow
1:
1643:Bloomberg-Secular Stagnation
1323:Frey, Carl Benedikt (2015).
839:Field, Alexander J. (2011).
2436:1997 Asian financial crisis
2069:Civil War-era United States
1473:September 18, 2013, at the
552:1991 Indian economic crisis
288:material-handling equipment
234:military-industrial complex
220:plants, aluminum smelters,
2645:
2212:Post–World War I recession
2032:Post-Napoleonic Depression
1379:10.1257/089533004773563412
1260:Gordon, Robert J. (2000).
641:Pagano and Sbracia (2014)
626:"U.S. Secular Stagnation?"
480:
195:
159:Post War Economic Problems
110:
69:
63:
29:
2122:2nd Industrial Revolution
2055:(1836–1838 and 1839–1843)
1971:1st Industrial Revolution
1739:Price-and-wage stickiness
1700:
1010:Field, Alexander (2004).
800:Rothbard, Murray (2002).
777:The Transmission of Power
698:Postwar Economic Problems
606:W., P. (16 August 2014).
531:zero interest-rate policy
356:The Evolution of Progress
317:The period following the
281:interstate highway system
205:total factor productivity
66:Secular stagnation theory
60:Secular stagnation theory
2403:1990s United States boom
2191:Financial crisis of 1914
1622:Paepke, C. Owen (1993).
1296:Paepke, C. Owen (1993).
738:Habakkuk, H. J. (1962).
711:Wells, David A. (1891).
505:subprime mortgage crisis
123:The years following the
2218:Depression of 1920–1921
2150:Depression of 1882–1885
2064:Early Victorian Britain
1799:Real and nominal values
1648:25 October 2014 at the
1544:Putnam Publishing Group
871:, Baltimore, Maryland:
535:negative interest rates
88:is used in contrast to
32:Economic immobilisation
2323:Recession of 1969–1970
2318:Recession of 1960–1961
2277:Recession of 1937–1938
1584:Cite journal requires
1516:Earthscan Publications
1393:Krugman, Paul (2009).
1134:Cite journal requires
1102:Cite journal requires
1046:Roche, Cullen (2010).
988:Cite journal requires
959:. 2010. Archived from
413:
269:and other appliances.
2441:Early 2000s recession
2408:Early 1990s recession
2360:Early 1980s recession
1940:Commercial revolution
1838:Nominal interest rate
1061:Smil, Vaclav (2006).
692:Sweezy, Alan (1943).
452:production method of
411:
333:Productivity slowdown
321:was characterized by
196:Further information:
111:Further information:
70:Further information:
2007:Copper Panic of 1789
1488:, January 30, 2017:
1438:on 30 September 2017
1372:(1 (Winter)): 3–26.
557:Hindu rate of growth
247:discretionary income
2343:1973–1975 recession
2287:Post–WWII expansion
1961:Great Frost of 1709
1789:Neutrality of money
1770:Classical dichotomy
1686:Economic expansions
1329:Scientific American
1282:10.1257/jep.14.4.49
963:on 26 October 2011.
945:on 24 October 2013.
865:Hounshell, David A.
628:. 23 December 2015.
562:Lost Decade (Japan)
547:Brezhnev stagnation
483:Lost Decade (Japan)
477:Japan: 1991–present
38:Economic stagnation
2525:COVID-19 recession
2185:Panic of 1910–1911
2017:Panic of 1796–1797
1843:Real interest rate
1811:Economic expansion
1605:Joseph Henry Press
1603:. Washington, DC:
1204:. 8 November 2013.
937:White, William J.
461:Carl Benedikt Frey
414:
299:combine harvesters
2601:
2600:
2312:Recession of 1958
2306:Recession of 1953
2300:Recession of 1949
1997:Thirteen Colonies
1804:Velocity of money
1734:Paradox of thrift
1635:978-0-679-41582-4
1614:978-0-309-08908-1
1553:978-0-87477-779-6
1525:978-1-85383-439-4
1406:978-0-393-07101-6
1309:978-0-679-41582-4
1024:on 10 March 2012.
882:978-0-8018-2975-8
850:978-0-300-15109-1
816:978-0-945466-33-8
786:978-0-262-08198-6
724:978-0-543-72474-8
16:(Redirected from
2636:
2393:Great Regression
2388:Great Moderation
2234:Great Depression
2223:Roaring Twenties
1744:Underconsumption
1714:Effective demand
1705:Aggregate demand
1679:
1672:
1665:
1656:
1639:
1618:
1593:
1587:
1582:
1580:
1572:
1570:
1557:
1529:
1506:Ayres, Robert U.
1492:
1483:
1477:
1465:
1459:
1454:
1448:
1447:
1445:
1443:
1434:. Archived from
1428:
1422:
1417:
1411:
1410:
1390:
1384:
1383:
1381:
1357:
1351:
1343:
1337:
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1314:
1313:
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1238:
1225:
1224:
1212:
1206:
1205:
1198:
1192:
1187:
1181:
1176:
1170:
1169:
1161:
1155:
1150:
1144:
1143:
1137:
1132:
1130:
1122:
1118:
1112:
1111:
1105:
1100:
1098:
1090:
1082:
1076:
1074:
1068:
1058:
1052:
1051:
1043:
1037:
1032:
1026:
1025:
1023:
1017:. Archived from
1016:
1007:
998:
997:
991:
986:
984:
976:
971:
965:
964:
953:
947:
946:
941:. Archived from
934:
928:
927:
925:
923:
918:on 18 April 2008
914:. Archived from
908:
902:
901:
861:
855:
854:
836:
821:
820:
808:
797:
791:
790:
774:
764:
758:
757:
745:
735:
729:
728:
708:
702:
701:
689:
680:
679:
677:
675:
670:on 16 March 2019
666:. Archived from
656:
650:
639:
630:
629:
622:
616:
615:
603:
519:Robert J. Gordon
499:World since 2008
446:great inventions
418:Hans-Werner Sinn
404:Post-2008 period
382:Henry A. Wallace
327:energy intensity
271:Air conditioning
214:synthetic rubber
151:Great Depression
137:David Ames Wells
21:
18:Economic malaise
2644:
2643:
2639:
2638:
2637:
2635:
2634:
2633:
2619:Economic growth
2604:
2603:
2602:
2597:
2462:Great Recession
2454:
2452:Information Age
2446:
2395:
2391:
2382:
2335:
2333:Great Inflation
2327:
2289:
2281:
2204:
2202:Interwar period
2196:
2132:Long Depression
2124:
2120:
2111:
2071:
2067:
2058:
1973:
1965:
1942:
1934:
1899:U.S. recessions
1894:U.K. recessions
1826:U.S. expansions
1696:
1683:
1650:Wayback Machine
1636:
1621:
1615:
1596:
1583:
1573:
1568:
1560:
1554:
1532:
1526:
1504:
1501:
1499:Further reading
1496:
1495:
1484:
1480:
1475:Wayback Machine
1466:
1462:
1455:
1451:
1441:
1439:
1430:
1429:
1425:
1418:
1414:
1407:
1392:
1391:
1387:
1359:
1358:
1354:
1344:
1340:
1322:
1321:
1317:
1310:
1295:
1294:
1290:
1264:
1259:
1258:
1254:
1240:
1239:
1228:
1214:
1213:
1209:
1200:
1199:
1195:
1188:
1184:
1177:
1173:
1163:
1162:
1158:
1151:
1147:
1133:
1123:
1120:
1119:
1115:
1101:
1091:
1084:
1083:
1079:
1060:
1059:
1055:
1045:
1044:
1040:
1033:
1029:
1021:
1014:
1009:
1008:
1001:
987:
977:
973:
972:
968:
955:
954:
950:
936:
935:
931:
921:
919:
910:
909:
905:
883:
863:
862:
858:
851:
838:
837:
824:
817:
806:
799:
798:
794:
787:
775:. Vol. 3:
766:
765:
761:
754:
737:
736:
732:
725:
710:
709:
705:
691:
690:
683:
673:
671:
664:Financial Times
658:
657:
653:
640:
633:
624:
623:
619:
605:
604:
597:
592:
568:The End of Work
543:
501:
485:
479:
474:
465:Great Recession
406:
384:in Roosevelt’s
364:
335:
319:1973 oil crisis
315:
292:forklift trucks
255:fuel efficiency
200:
194:
172:
145:Long Depression
135:. According to
129:Long Depression
127:, known as the
120:
115:
109:
74:
68:
62:
54:macroeconomists
42:economic growth
35:
28:
23:
22:
15:
12:
11:
5:
2642:
2640:
2632:
2631:
2629:Business cycle
2626:
2621:
2616:
2606:
2605:
2599:
2598:
2596:
2595:
2594:
2593:
2588:
2583:
2581:United Kingdom
2578:
2573:
2568:
2563:
2558:
2553:
2548:
2543:
2538:
2533:
2522:
2521:
2520:
2515:
2513:United Kingdom
2510:
2505:
2500:
2495:
2490:
2485:
2480:
2475:
2470:
2458:
2456:
2455:(2007–present)
2448:
2447:
2445:
2444:
2438:
2433:
2432:
2431:
2426:
2424:United Kingdom
2421:
2416:
2405:
2399:
2397:
2384:
2383:
2381:
2380:
2379:
2378:
2373:
2371:United Kingdom
2368:
2357:
2356:
2355:
2350:
2348:United Kingdom
2339:
2337:
2329:
2328:
2326:
2325:
2320:
2315:
2309:
2303:
2297:
2293:
2291:
2283:
2282:
2280:
2279:
2274:
2273:
2272:
2267:
2265:United Kingdom
2262:
2257:
2252:
2247:
2242:
2231:
2228:
2225:
2220:
2215:
2208:
2206:
2198:
2197:
2195:
2194:
2188:
2182:
2176:
2170:
2167:
2161:
2155:
2152:
2147:
2146:
2145:
2140:
2138:United Kingdom
2128:
2126:
2113:
2112:
2110:
2109:
2103:
2097:
2094:
2088:
2085:
2079:
2075:
2073:
2060:
2059:
2057:
2056:
2050:
2047:
2044:
2038:
2035:
2029:
2026:
2023:
2020:
2014:
2004:
2001:
2000:
1999:
1994:
1989:
1977:
1975:
1967:
1966:
1964:
1963:
1958:
1953:
1946:
1944:
1936:
1935:
1933:
1932:
1931:
1930:
1920:
1919:
1918:
1913:
1903:
1902:
1901:
1896:
1891:
1886:
1881:
1876:
1871:
1866:
1856:
1855:
1854:
1845:
1840:
1830:
1829:
1828:
1823:
1818:
1808:
1807:
1806:
1801:
1796:
1791:
1786:
1777:
1772:
1767:
1753:
1751:Business cycle
1748:
1747:
1746:
1741:
1736:
1731:
1729:Overproduction
1726:
1721:
1716:
1701:
1698:
1697:
1684:
1682:
1681:
1674:
1667:
1659:
1653:
1652:
1640:
1634:
1619:
1613:
1594:
1586:|journal=
1558:
1552:
1534:Rifkin, Jeremy
1530:
1524:
1500:
1497:
1494:
1493:
1478:
1460:
1449:
1423:
1412:
1405:
1385:
1352:
1338:
1315:
1308:
1288:
1252:
1226:
1221:New York Times
1207:
1193:
1182:
1171:
1156:
1145:
1136:|journal=
1113:
1104:|journal=
1077:
1053:
1038:
1027:
999:
990:|journal=
966:
948:
929:
903:
881:
856:
849:
822:
815:
792:
785:
759:
753:978-0521094474
752:
730:
723:
703:
681:
651:
645:Bank of Italy
631:
617:
594:
593:
591:
588:
587:
586:
581:
576:
574:Business cycle
571:
564:
559:
554:
549:
542:
539:
500:
497:
493:liquidity trap
481:Main article:
478:
475:
473:
470:
405:
402:
394:Michał Kalecki
377:Monthly Review
363:
360:
334:
331:
314:
311:
303:
302:
295:
284:
277:
193:
190:
171:
168:
167:
166:
147:
119:
116:
108:
105:
101:General Theory
64:Main article:
61:
58:
26:
24:
14:
13:
10:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
2641:
2630:
2627:
2625:
2624:Market trends
2622:
2620:
2617:
2615:
2612:
2611:
2609:
2592:
2589:
2587:
2586:United States
2584:
2582:
2579:
2577:
2574:
2572:
2569:
2567:
2564:
2562:
2559:
2557:
2554:
2552:
2549:
2547:
2544:
2542:
2539:
2537:
2534:
2532:
2528:
2527:
2526:
2523:
2519:
2518:United States
2516:
2514:
2511:
2509:
2506:
2504:
2501:
2499:
2496:
2494:
2491:
2489:
2486:
2484:
2481:
2479:
2476:
2474:
2471:
2469:
2465:
2464:
2463:
2460:
2459:
2457:
2453:
2449:
2442:
2439:
2437:
2434:
2430:
2429:United States
2427:
2425:
2422:
2420:
2417:
2415:
2411:
2410:
2409:
2406:
2404:
2401:
2400:
2398:
2394:
2389:
2385:
2377:
2376:United States
2374:
2372:
2369:
2367:
2363:
2362:
2361:
2358:
2354:
2353:United States
2351:
2349:
2346:
2345:
2344:
2341:
2340:
2338:
2334:
2330:
2324:
2321:
2319:
2316:
2313:
2310:
2307:
2304:
2301:
2298:
2295:
2294:
2292:
2288:
2284:
2278:
2275:
2271:
2270:United States
2268:
2266:
2263:
2261:
2258:
2256:
2253:
2251:
2248:
2246:
2243:
2241:
2237:
2236:
2235:
2232:
2229:
2226:
2224:
2221:
2219:
2216:
2213:
2210:
2209:
2207:
2203:
2199:
2192:
2189:
2186:
2183:
2180:
2179:Panic of 1907
2177:
2174:
2173:Panic of 1901
2171:
2168:
2165:
2164:Panic of 1893
2162:
2159:
2158:Baring crisis
2156:
2153:
2151:
2148:
2144:
2143:United States
2141:
2139:
2135:
2134:
2133:
2130:
2129:
2127:
2123:
2118:
2114:
2107:
2104:
2101:
2100:Panic of 1866
2098:
2095:
2092:
2091:Panic of 1857
2089:
2086:
2083:
2082:Panic of 1847
2080:
2077:
2076:
2074:
2070:
2065:
2061:
2054:
2053:Panic of 1837
2051:
2048:
2045:
2042:
2041:Panic of 1825
2039:
2036:
2033:
2030:
2027:
2024:
2021:
2018:
2015:
2012:
2011:Panic of 1792
2008:
2005:
2002:
1998:
1995:
1993:
1990:
1988:
1984:
1983:
1982:
1979:
1978:
1976:
1972:
1968:
1962:
1959:
1957:
1956:Slump of 1706
1954:
1951:
1948:
1947:
1945:
1941:
1937:
1929:
1926:
1925:
1924:
1921:
1917:
1914:
1912:
1909:
1908:
1907:
1904:
1900:
1897:
1895:
1892:
1890:
1887:
1885:
1882:
1880:
1877:
1875:
1872:
1870:
1867:
1865:
1864:Balance sheet
1862:
1861:
1860:
1857:
1853:
1849:
1846:
1844:
1841:
1839:
1836:
1835:
1834:
1833:Interest rate
1831:
1827:
1824:
1822:
1819:
1817:
1814:
1813:
1812:
1809:
1805:
1802:
1800:
1797:
1795:
1792:
1790:
1787:
1785:
1781:
1778:
1776:
1773:
1771:
1768:
1766:
1763:
1762:
1761:
1757:
1754:
1752:
1749:
1745:
1742:
1740:
1737:
1735:
1732:
1730:
1727:
1725:
1722:
1720:
1717:
1715:
1712:
1711:
1710:
1706:
1703:
1702:
1699:
1695:
1691:
1687:
1680:
1675:
1673:
1668:
1666:
1661:
1660:
1657:
1651:
1647:
1644:
1641:
1637:
1631:
1627:
1626:
1620:
1616:
1610:
1606:
1602:
1601:
1595:
1591:
1578:
1567:
1563:
1562:Ayres, Robert
1559:
1555:
1549:
1545:
1541:
1540:
1535:
1531:
1527:
1521:
1517:
1513:
1512:
1507:
1503:
1502:
1498:
1491:
1487:
1482:
1479:
1476:
1472:
1469:
1464:
1461:
1458:
1453:
1450:
1437:
1433:
1427:
1424:
1421:
1416:
1413:
1408:
1402:
1398:
1397:
1389:
1386:
1380:
1375:
1371:
1367:
1363:
1356:
1353:
1350:
1348:
1342:
1339:
1334:
1330:
1326:
1319:
1316:
1311:
1305:
1301:
1300:
1292:
1289:
1283:
1278:
1274:
1270:
1263:
1256:
1253:
1248:
1244:
1237:
1235:
1233:
1231:
1227:
1222:
1218:
1211:
1208:
1203:
1197:
1194:
1191:
1186:
1183:
1180:
1175:
1172:
1167:
1160:
1157:
1154:
1149:
1146:
1141:
1128:
1117:
1114:
1109:
1096:
1088:
1081:
1078:
1072:
1067:
1066:
1057:
1054:
1049:
1042:
1039:
1035:
1031:
1028:
1020:
1013:
1006:
1004:
1000:
995:
982:
970:
967:
962:
958:
952:
949:
944:
940:
933:
930:
917:
913:
907:
904:
900:
896:
892:
888:
884:
878:
874:
870:
866:
860:
857:
852:
846:
842:
835:
833:
831:
829:
827:
823:
818:
812:
805:
804:
796:
793:
788:
782:
778:
773:
772:
763:
760:
755:
749:
744:
743:
734:
731:
726:
720:
716:
715:
707:
704:
699:
695:
688:
686:
682:
669:
665:
661:
655:
652:
648:
644:
638:
636:
632:
627:
621:
618:
613:
612:The Economist
609:
602:
600:
596:
589:
585:
582:
580:
577:
575:
572:
570:
569:
565:
563:
560:
558:
555:
553:
550:
548:
545:
544:
540:
538:
536:
532:
528:
523:
520:
516:
513:
512:Larry Summers
509:
506:
498:
496:
494:
490:
484:
476:
471:
469:
466:
462:
457:
455:
451:
450:assembly line
447:
443:
438:
436:
432:
429:
428:
427:The Economist
423:
422:Larry Summers
419:
410:
403:
401:
397:
395:
391:
387:
383:
379:
378:
373:
369:
368:Harry Magdoff
361:
359:
357:
353:
349:
348:Turning Point
345:
341:
332:
330:
328:
324:
320:
312:
310:
308:
300:
296:
293:
289:
285:
282:
278:
276:
272:
268:
267:refrigerators
264:
263:
262:
260:
256:
252:
248:
244:
239:
235:
230:
228:
227:machine tools
223:
222:aviation fuel
219:
215:
209:
206:
199:
191:
189:
186:
180:
177:
169:
164:
160:
156:
152:
148:
146:
142:
138:
134:
130:
126:
125:Panic of 1873
122:
121:
117:
114:
106:
104:
102:
97:
95:
91:
87:
82:
79:
73:
67:
59:
57:
55:
51:
47:
43:
39:
33:
19:
2614:Unemployment
2503:South Africa
2260:South Africa
2106:Black Friday
1923:Unemployment
1820:
1780:Money supply
1775:Disinflation
1719:General glut
1624:
1599:
1577:cite journal
1538:
1510:
1481:
1463:
1452:
1440:. Retrieved
1436:the original
1426:
1415:
1395:
1388:
1369:
1365:
1355:
1346:
1341:
1332:
1328:
1318:
1298:
1291:
1275:(4): 49–74.
1272:
1268:
1255:
1246:
1220:
1210:
1196:
1185:
1174:
1165:
1159:
1148:
1127:cite journal
1116:
1095:cite journal
1080:
1064:
1056:
1041:
1030:
1019:the original
981:cite journal
969:
961:the original
951:
943:the original
932:
920:. Retrieved
916:the original
906:
868:
859:
840:
802:
795:
776:
770:
762:
741:
733:
713:
706:
697:
672:. Retrieved
668:the original
663:
654:
646:
620:
611:
566:
524:
517:
510:
502:
489:Paul Krugman
486:
458:
439:
435:Paul Krugman
433:
425:
415:
398:
389:
375:
365:
355:
352:Robert Ayres
347:
339:
336:
316:
304:
259:malnutrition
231:
210:
201:
181:
173:
170:19th century
158:
155:World War II
100:
98:
93:
89:
85:
83:
78:Alvin Hansen
75:
49:
37:
36:
2571:New Zealand
2529:2020–2022;
2493:New Zealand
2466:2007–2009;
2412:1990–1991;
2396:(1982–2007)
2364:1980–1982;
2336:(1973–1982)
2314:(1957–1958)
2308:(1953–1954)
2302:(1948–1949)
2290:(1945–1973)
2255:New Zealand
2238:1929–1939;
2214:(1918–1919)
2205:(1918–1939)
2187:(1910–1912)
2181:(1907–1908)
2175:(1902–1904)
2166:(1893–1897)
2160:(1890–1891)
2136:1873–1879;
2125:(1870–1914)
2108:(1869–1870)
2102:(1865–1867)
2093:(1857–1858)
2084:(1847–1848)
2072:(1840–1870)
2043:(1825–1826)
2034:(1815–1821)
2019:(1796–1799)
2013:(1789–1793)
1985:1772–1774;
1974:(1760–1840)
1952:(1430–1490)
1950:Great Slump
1943:(1000–1760)
1889:Stagflation
1848:Yield curve
1794:Price level
442:new economy
372:Paul Sweezy
344:Tyler Cowen
323:stagflation
313:Stagflation
243:crop yields
2608:Categories
2536:Bangladesh
2473:Bangladesh
2117:Gilded Age
1869:Depression
1821:Stagnation
1514:. London:
1442:1 December
899:1104810110
590:References
290:, such as
185:real wages
94:short-term
2576:Singapore
2531:Australia
2508:Sri Lanka
2468:Australia
2414:Australia
2240:Australia
2230:1926–1927
2227:1923–1924
2193:(1913–14)
2169:1899–1900
2025:1807–1810
2022:1802–1804
2003:1785–1788
1928:Sahm rule
1859:Recession
1760:Inflation
1756:Deflation
975:454–457".
922:7 January
674:9 October
584:Recession
238:baby boom
176:Civil War
141:telegraph
133:deflation
2561:Malaysia
2546:Botswana
2498:Pakistan
2488:Malaysia
1992:Scotland
1852:Inverted
1816:Recovery
1646:Archived
1564:(1989).
1536:(1995).
1508:(1998).
1471:Archived
891:83016269
867:(1984),
579:Degrowth
541:See also
472:Episodes
386:New Deal
307:workweek
90:cyclical
2566:Namibia
2154:1887–88
2096:1860–61
2087:1853–54
2078:1845–46
2049:1833–34
2046:1828–29
2037:1822–23
1987:England
1879:Rolling
1765:Chronic
454:Fordism
218:ammonia
86:secular
2591:Zambia
2551:Canada
2541:Belize
2478:Canada
2443:(2001)
2419:Canada
2366:Canada
2245:Canada
1916:Supply
1911:Demand
1884:Shapes
1874:Global
1784:demand
1709:Supply
1632:
1611:
1550:
1522:
1403:
1306:
897:
889:
879:
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721:
251:diesel
2556:India
2483:India
2250:India
1906:Shock
1724:Model
1569:(PDF)
1265:(PDF)
1022:(PDF)
1015:(PDF)
807:(PDF)
2296:1945
2028:1812
1692:and
1688:and
1630:ISBN
1609:ISBN
1590:help
1548:ISBN
1520:ISBN
1444:2013
1401:ISBN
1335:(1).
1304:ISBN
1140:help
1108:help
994:help
924:2014
895:OCLC
887:LCCN
877:ISBN
845:ISBN
811:ISBN
781:ISBN
748:ISBN
719:ISBN
676:2014
525:The
370:and
354:and
305:The
149:The
50:slow
1374:doi
1333:312
1277:doi
1247:NPR
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