Efficient-market hypothesis

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retained 95 percent ownership of Palm, 3Com shareholders indirectly owned 1.5 Palm shares for each 3Com share, based on the respective number of outstanding shares in each company. Ironically, despite the buying frenzy in Palm, 3Com shares fell 21 percent on the day of the IPO, closing at 81.181. Based on the implicit embedded holding of Palm shares, 3Com shares should have closed at a price of at least $ 142.59 based solely on the value of the Palm shares at their closing price ($ 1.5 × $ 95.06 = $ 142.59). In effect, the market was valuing the stub portion of 3Com (that is, the rest of the company excluding Palm) at −$ 60.78! The market was therefore assigning a large negative price to all of the company’s remaining assets excluding Palm, which made absolutely no sense. The extreme disconnect between 3Com and Palm prices, despite their strong structural link, seems to be not merely wildly incongruous; it appears to border on the impossible." Schwager (2012), p. 59-60

720: 927:), but rather, constructed with long-short portfolios in response to the observed empirical EMH anomalies. For instance, the "small-minus-big" (SMB) factor in the FF3 factor model is simply a portfolio that holds long positions on small stocks and short positions on large stocks to mimic the risks small stocks face. These risk factors are said to represent some aspect or dimension of undiversifiable systematic risk which should be compensated with higher expected returns. Additional popular risk factors include the "HML" value factor (Fama and French, 1993); "MOM" momentum factor (Carhart, 1997); "ILLIQ" liquidity factors (Amihud et al. 2002). See also 821: 707:. Also, Samuelson published a proof showing that if the market is efficient, prices will exhibit random-walk behavior. This is often cited in support of the efficient-market theory, by the method of affirming the consequent, however in that same paper, Samuelson warns against such backward reasoning, saying "From a nonempirical base of axioms you never get empirical results." In 1970, Fama published a review of both the theory and the evidence for the hypothesis. The paper extended and refined the theory, included the definitions for three forms of 1164:, said that the hypothesis held up well during the crisis: "Stock prices typically decline prior to a recession and in a state of recession. This was a particularly severe recession. Prices started to decline in advance of when people recognized that it was a recession and then continued to decline. That was exactly what you would expect if markets are efficient." Despite this, Fama said that "poorly informed investors could theoretically lead the market astray" and that stock prices could become "somewhat irrational" as a result. 871:) of individuals underscored by behavioral finance. On the other hand, economists, behavioral psychologists and mutual fund managers are drawn from the human population and are therefore subject to the biases that behavioralists showcase. By contrast, the price signals in markets are far less subject to individual biases highlighted by the Behavioral Finance programme. Richard Thaler has started a fund based on his research on cognitive biases. In a 2008 report he identified 1097:

Schwager proposes information may not be interpreted or applied in the same way by different people and skill may play a factor in how information is used. Schwager argues markets are difficult to beat because of the unpredictable and sometimes irrational behavior of humans who buy and sell assets in the stock market. Schwager also cites several instances of mispricing that he contends are impossible according to a strict or strong interpretation of the EMH.

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Rosenberg, Reid, and Lanstein 1985; Campbell and Shiller 1988; Jegadeesh and Titman 1993). Since the 2010s, studies have often found that return predictability has become more elusive, as predictability fails to work out-of-sample (Goyal and Welch 2008), or has been weakened by advances in trading technology and investor learning (Chordia, Subrahmanyam, and Tong 2014; McLean and Pontiff 2016; Martineau 2021).

745:. Shiller states that this plot "confirms that long-term investors—investors who commit their money to an investment for ten full years—did do well when prices were low relative to earnings at the beginning of the ten years. Long-term investors would be well advised, individually, to lower their exposure to the stock market when it is high, as it has been recently, and get into the market when it is low." 3676: 619:

there is some predictability over the long-term, the extent to which this is due to rational time-varying risk premia as opposed to behavioral reasons is a subject of debate. In their seminal paper, Fama, Fisher, Jensen, and Roll (1969) propose the event study methodology and show that stock prices on average react before a stock split, but have no movement afterwards.

2664:. Countrywide stock plunged in July 2007, up to two years after the US housing market began to show signs of . “The long lag in Countrywide’s response to the seriously deteriorating fundamentals seems in direct contradiction to the efficient market hypothesis assumption that prices instantaneously adjust to changing fundamentals.” Schwager (2012), p. 59-60. 962:", and that it provides a conclusive refutation of EMH. While other assets that have been used as currency (such as gold, tobacco) have value or utility independent of people's willingness to accept them as payment, Quiggin argues that "in the case of Bitcoin there is no source of value whatsoever" and thus Bitcoin should be priced at zero or worthless. 741:(inflation adjusted price divided by the prior ten-year mean of inflation-adjusted earnings). The vertical axis shows the geometric average real annual return on investing in the S&P Composite Stock Price Index, reinvesting dividends, and selling twenty years later. Data from different twenty-year periods is color-coded as shown in the key. See also 831:

beating the market: "They're just not going to do it. It's just not going to happen." Indeed, defenders of EMH maintain that behavioral finance strengthens the case for EMH in that it highlights biases in individuals and committees and not competitive markets. For example, one prominent finding in behavioral finance is that individuals employ

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as a mispricing that should not happen according to the efficient market hypothesis. 3Com offered 5% of Palm as stock initially priced at $ 38. Palm became a market sensation and the stock price more than quadrupled the first day of trading, while 3Com declined sharply at the same time. “Since 3Com

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that markets were the most effective way of aggregating the pieces of information dispersed among individuals within a society. Given the ability to profit from private information, self-interested traders are motivated to acquire and act on their private information. In doing so, traders contribute

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in the 1930s and 1940s suggested that professional investors were in general unable to outperform the market. During the 1930s-1950s empirical studies focused on time-series properties, and found that US stock prices and related financial series followed a random walk model in the short-term. While

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said "It should be clear that among the causes of the recent financial crisis was an unjustified faith in rational expectations, market efficiencies, and the techniques of modern finance." One financial analyst said "By 2007–2009, you had to be a fanatic to believe in the literal truth of the EMH."

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Behavioral psychology approaches to stock market trading are among some of the alternatives to EMH (investment strategies such as momentum trading seek to exploit exactly such inefficiencies). However, Nobel Laureate co-founder of the programme Daniel Kahneman —announced his skepticism of investors

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Joel Tillinghast, also a fund manager at Fidelity with a long history of outperforming a benchmark, has written that the core arguments of the EMH are "more true than not" and he accepts a "sloppy" version of the theory allowing for a margin of error. But he also contends the EMH is not completely

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Suppose that a piece of information about the value of a stock (say, about a future merger) is widely available to investors. If the price of the stock does not already reflect that information, then investors can trade on it, thereby moving the price until the information is no longer useful for

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given enough time and so no investor will beat the market average. But Pilkington points out that when proponents of the theory are presented with evidence that a small minority of investors do, in fact, beat the market over the long-run, these proponents then say that these investors were simply

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The concept of market efficiency had been anticipated at the beginning of the century in the dissertation submitted by Bachelier (1900) to the Sorbonne for his PhD in mathematics. In his opening paragraph, Bachelier recognizes that "past, present and even discounted future events are reflected in

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Note that this thought experiment does not necessarily imply that stock prices are unpredictable. For example, suppose that the piece of information in question says that a financial crisis is likely to come soon. Investors typically do not like to hold stocks during a financial crisis, and thus

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argues the EMH is "right for the wrong reasons". He agrees it is "very difficult" to consistently beat average market returns, but contends it's not due to how information is distributed more or less instantly to all market participants. Information may be distributed more or less instantly, but

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compared —one cannot know if the market is efficient if one does not know if a model correctly stipulates the required rate of return. Consequently, a situation arises where either the asset pricing model is incorrect or the market is inefficient, but one has no way of knowing which is the case.

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is a critical component to capturing "inefficiencies" in tests for abnormal returns. Any test of this proposition faces the joint hypothesis problem, where it is impossible to ever test for market efficiency, since to do so requires the use of a measuring stick against which abnormal returns are

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argued that the stock market is "micro efficient" but not "macro efficient": the EMH is much better suited for individual stocks than it is for the aggregate stock market as a whole. Research based on regression and scatter diagrams, published in 2005, has strongly supported Samuelson's dictum.

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are consistent with the EMH (Fama, Fisher, Jensen, and Roll, 1969), other empirical analyses have found problems with the efficient-market hypothesis. Early examples include the observation that small neglected stocks and stocks with high book-to-market (low price-to-book) ratios (value stocks)

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has stated the EMH is "obviously roughly correct", in that a hypothetical average investor will tend towards average results "and it's quite hard for anybody to beat the market by significant margins". However, Munger also believes "extreme" commitment to the EMH is "bonkers", as the theory's

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Many decades of empirical research on return predictability has found mixed evidence. Research in the 1950s and 1960s often found a lack of predictability (e.g. Ball and Brown 1968; Fama, Fisher, Jensen, and Roll 1969), yet the 1980s-2000s saw an explosion of discovered return predictors (e.g.

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Further empirical work has highlighted the impact transaction costs have on the concept of market efficiency, with much evidence suggesting that any anomalies pertaining to market inefficiencies are the result of a cost benefit analysis made by those willing to incur the cost of acquiring the

1085:(who focus on underpriced assets) have tended to outperform the broader market over long periods. Tillinghast also asserts that even staunch EMH proponents will admit weaknesses to the theory when assets are significantly over- or under-priced, such as double or half their value according to 694:

Early theories posited that predicting stock prices is unfeasible, as they depend on fresh information or news rather than existing or historical prices. Therefore, stock prices are thought to fluctuate randomly, and their predictability is believed to be no better than a 50% accuracy rate.

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These categories of tests refer to the information set used in the statement "prices reflect all available information." Weak-form tests study the information contained in historical prices. Semi-strong form tests study information (beyond historical prices) which is publicly available.

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masquerading as a theory. He argues that, taken at face value, the theory makes the banal claim that the average investor will not beat the market average—which is a tautology. When pressed on this point, Pinkington argues that EMH proponents will usually say that any

654:, but Bachelier did not cite him, and Bachelier's thesis is now considered pioneering in the field of financial mathematics. It is commonly thought that Bachelier's work gained little attention and was forgotten for decades until it was rediscovered in the 1950s by 658:, and then become more popular after Bachelier's thesis was translated into English in 1964. But the work was never forgotten in the mathematical community, as Bachelier published a book in 1912 detailing his ideas, which was cited by mathematicians including 702:

had begun to circulate Bachelier's work among economists. In 1964 Bachelier's dissertation along with the empirical studies mentioned above were published in an anthology edited by Paul Cootner. In 1965, Eugene Fama published his dissertation arguing for the

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colleagues of being "asleep at the switch", saying that "the movement to deregulate the financial industry went too far by exaggerating the resilience—the self healing powers—of laissez-faire capitalism." Others, such as economist and Nobel laurete

1069:—though both concepts are widely taught in business schools without seeming awareness of a contradiction. If asset prices are rational and based on all available data as the efficient market hypothesis proposes, then fluctuations in asset price are 742: 3655: 1113:

said the EMH was responsible for the current financial crisis, claiming that belief in the hypothesis caused financial leaders to have a "chronic underestimation of the dangers of asset bubbles breaking". Financial journalist

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Because the EMH is formulated in terms of risk adjustment, it only makes testable predictions when coupled with a particular model of risk. As a result, research in financial economics since at least the 1990s has focused on

124:, that is, assuming that there is no risk-free way to trade profitably. Formally, if arbitrage is impossible, then the theorem predicts that the price of a stock is the discounted value of its future price and dividend: 2917: 986:

among the world's money managers with the highest rates of performance rebuts the claim of EMH proponents that luck is the reason some investors appear more successful than others. Nonetheless, Buffett has recommended

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to more and more efficient market prices. In the competitive limit, market prices reflect all available information and prices can only move in response to news. Thus there is a very close link between EMH and the

56:

prices reflect all available information. A direct implication is that it is impossible to "beat the market" consistently on a risk-adjusted basis since market prices should only react to new information.

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The efficient markets theory was not popular until the 1960s when the advent of computers made it possible to compare calculations and prices of hundreds of stocks more quickly and effortlessly. In 1945,

734: 1188:, the use of efficient market theory in supporting securities class action litigation was affirmed. Supreme Court Justice Roberts wrote that "the court's ruling was consistent with the ruling in ' 912:. Further tests of portfolio efficiency by Gibbons, Ross and Shanken (1989) (GJR) led to rejections of the CAPM, although tests of efficiency inevitably run into the joint hypothesis problem (see 84:, in part due to his influential 1970 review of the theoretical and empirical research. The EMH provides the basic logic for modern risk-based theories of asset prices, and frameworks such as 2674: 1008:(1973) argues that "the preponderance of statistical evidence" supports EMH, but admits there are enough "gremlins lurking about" in the data to prevent EMH from being conclusively proved. 2652:

Though US residential home prices peaked in 2006 and mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures "rose steadily throughout 2006 and accelerated in 2007 ”, investor interest remained strong in

670:. The book continued to be cited, but then starting in the 1960s the original thesis by Bachelier began to be cited more than his book when economists started citing Bachelier's work. 516: 3710: 646:

in 1900 in his PhD thesis "The Theory of Speculation" describing how prices of commodities and stocks varied in markets. It has been speculated that Bachelier drew ideas from the

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Travis Christofferson (2019). Curable: How an Unlikely Group of Radical Innovators Is Trying to Transform Our Health Care System. Chelsea Green Publishing, ISBN 1603589279, p. 37

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Stock prices quickly incorporate information from earnings announcements, making it difficult to beat the market by trading on these events. A replication of Martineau (2022).

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Empirical evidence has been mixed, but has generally not supported strong forms of the efficient-market hypothesis. According to Dreman and Berry, in a 1995 paper, low P/E (

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leading to a failure to correctly risk-adjust returns; Dreman's research had been accepted by efficient market theorists as explaining the anomaly in neat accordance with

423: 228: 972:(AI) influences the applicability of the efficient market hypothesis in that the greater amount of AI-based market participants, the more efficient the markets become. 598: 348: 311: 2874: 3402: 3295: 258: 996:

originators were seduced by an "intellectually consistent theory that allowed them to do pretty mathematics the fundamentals did not properly tie to reality."

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Following GJR's results and mounting empirical evidence of EMH anomalies, academics began to move away from the CAPM towards risk factor models such as the

719: 2165: 1185: 979: 804:) stocks have greater returns. In an earlier paper, Dreman also refuted the assertion by Ray Ball that these higher returns could be attributed to higher 3703: 2091:

Basu, Sanjoy (1977). "Investment Performance of Common Stocks in Relation to Their Price-Earnings Ratios: A test of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis".

749:, a well-known proponent of the general validity of EMH, stated that this correlation may be consistent with an efficient market due to differences in 2455: 1749:"An Overview of Machine Learning, Deep Learning, and Reinforcement Learning-Based Techniques in Quantitative Finance: Recent Progress and Challenges" 627:

In Fama's influential 1970 review paper, he categorized empirical tests of efficiency into "weak-form", "semi-strong-form", and "strong-form" tests.

357:. However, if we assume the stochastic discount factor is constant and the time interval is short enough so that no dividend is being paid, we have 3671: 2163:

Chan, Kam C.; Gup, Benton E.; Pan, Ming-Shiun (4 March 2003). "International Stock Market Efficiency and Integration: A Study of Eighteen Nations".

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The term may alternatively be spelled with or without the hyphen and/or with the word "markets" instead of "market". Similarly, it may be called

3696: 2623: 2594: 2411: 1970: 1691: 4489: 3941: 2511:

Pilkington, P (2017). The Reformation in Economics: A Deconstruction and Reconstruction of Economic Theory. Palgrave Macmillan. Pp261-265.

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Jarrow, Robert; Protter, Philip (2004). "A short history of stochastic integration and mathematical finance: the early years, 1880–1970".

1576:"Bachelier: Not the forgotten forerunner he has been depicted as. An analysis of the dissemination of Louis Bachelier's work in economics" 1543: 1035:'lucky'. Pilkington argues that introducing the idea that anyone who diverges from the theory is simply 'lucky' insulates the theory from 781:, and various other predictable human errors in reasoning and information processing. These have been researched by psychologists such as 3288: 3002: 2703: 920: 2062: 3171: 3031: 1997: 1887: 1860: 1487: 1134:

At the International Organization of Securities Commissions annual conference, held in June 2009, the hypothesis took center stage.

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Pilkington, P (2017). The Reformation in Economics: A Deconstruction and Reconstruction of Economic Theory. Palgrave Macmillan.

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Joel Tillinghast (2017). Big Money Thinks Small: Biases, Blind Spots and Smarter Investing. Columbia Business School Publishing

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is that it could drive a stake through the heart of the academic nostrum known as the efficient-market hypothesis." Former

895:

The performance of stock markets is correlated with the amount of sunshine in the city where the main exchange is located.

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Siegel, Laurence B. (2010). "Black Swan or Black Turkey? The State of Economic Knowledge and the Crash of 2007–2009".

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Economists Matthew Bishop and Michael Green claim that full acceptance of the hypothesis goes against the thinking of

909: 708: 1575: 2481: 3954: 3948: 3419: 2788: 2653: 1962: 1206: 1177: 314: 1624:

Courtault, Jean-Michel; Kabanov, Yuri; Bru, Bernard; Crepel, Pierre; Lebon, Isabelle; Le Marchand, Arnaud (2000).

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Human Behavior and the Efficiency of the Financial System (1999) by Robert J. Shiller Handbook of Macroeconomics

1221: 860: 2351: 89: 4343: 4018: 3575: 3489: 3117:

Khan, Arshad M. (1986). "Conformity with Large Speculators: A Test of Efficiency in the Grain Futures Market".

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and other hedging strategies assuage if not eliminate potential mispricings from the severe risk-intolerance (

109:

investors may sell stocks until the price drops enough so that the expected return compensates for this risk.

435: 4297: 4158: 4053: 3936: 3650: 3635: 3609: 3604: 3454: 3382: 3324: 1241: 1181: 1173: 969: 924: 820: 809: 120:. This theorem provides mathematical predictions regarding the price of a stock, assuming that there is no 2522:

Pilkington, P (2014). Hans Albert Expands Robinson's Critique of the Law of Demand. Fixing the Economists.

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Jack Schwager (2012). Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work (and How They Don't). Wiley,

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See Working (1934), Cowles and Jones (1937), and Kendall (1953), and later Brealey, Dryden and Cunningham.

1474:, World Scientific Handbook in Financial Economics Series, vol. 5, WORLD SCIENTIFIC, pp. 25–38, 1256: 1189: 1066: 852: 832: 704: 688: 647: 522: 354: 113: 4323: 4132: 3444: 3304: 3197:

Working, Holbrook (1960). "Note on the Correlation of First Differences of Averages in a Random Chain".

2657: 2433: 1251: 1144:, dismissed the hypothesis as being a useless way to examine how markets function in reality. Economist 2287:

Hirshleifer, David A.; Shumway, Tyler (June 2003). "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather".

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Litigation to both justify and as mechanism for the calculation of damages. In the Supreme Court Case,

1043:, Pilkington argues that the theory falls back into being a tautology or a pseudoscientific construct. 2934: 4458: 4378: 4143: 4127: 4090: 3972: 3915: 3883: 3434: 3330: 3087: 1086: 1058: 864: 801: 765:, and researchers have disputed the efficient-market hypothesis both empirically and theoretically. 4388: 4333: 4257: 4117: 4047: 3876: 3849: 3397: 3262: 3251:"The Persistence of Pricing Inefficiencies in the Stock Markets of the Eastern European EU Nations" 2736: 2548: 944: 923:. These risk factor models are not properly founded on economic theory (whereas CAPM is founded on 528:

Although the concept of an efficient market is similar to the assumption that stock prices follow:

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Samuelson, Paul A. (23 August 2015), "Proof that Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly",

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when such evidence is available' instead of relying exclusively on the efficient markets theory."

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Dreman David N.; Berry Michael A. (1995). "Overreaction, Underreaction, and the Low-P/E Effect".

1934: 1656: 1606: 1353: 766: 130: 1534: 913: 729: 2586: 2580: 1148:

said the hypothesis had not failed, but was "seriously flawed" in its neglect of human nature.

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Ball R. (1978). Anomalies in Relationships between Securities' Yields and Yield-Surrogates.

2201: 2174: 2143: 2100: 1926: 1812: 1760: 1679: 1640: 1590: 1475: 1444: 1407: 1376: 1345: 1115: 888: 3037:

Cowles, Alfred; H. Jones (1937). "Some A Posteriori Probabilities in Stock Market Action".

2323: 236: 4468: 4463: 4398: 4373: 4308: 4282: 4262: 4221: 4216: 4211: 4196: 4191: 4079: 4013: 4005: 3893: 3780: 3559: 3549: 3539: 3534: 3514: 3312: 3191: 2969: 2826:"Efficient Market Hypothesis Empirical Test to Debunk the Weak Form Using Selected Stocks" 1231: 1193: 1140: 1123: 1119: 1110: 1082: 1078: 983: 959: 824: 782: 679: 643: 69: 1917:

Fama, Eugene (1970). "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work".

1678:. Institute of Mathematical Statistics Lecture Notes - Monograph Series. pp. 75–80. 1336:

Fama, Eugene (1970). "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work".

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Apolaagoa, Christian; Namakobo, Annetta; Singh, Angad; Bhattacharyya, Ritabrata (2020).

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random. But if the random walk hypothesis is valid, then asset prices are not rational.

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that aim to track average market returns for most investors. Buffett's business partner

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The Efficient Market Hypothesists: Bachelier, Samuelson, Fama, Ross, Tobin, and Shiller

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Samuelson, Paul (1972). "Proof That Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly."

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Rosenberg B, Reid K, Lanstein R. (1985). Persuasive Evidence of Market Inefficiency.

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Samuelson, Paul (1965). "Proof That Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly".

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tended to achieve abnormally high returns relative to what could be explained by the

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shot up in price despite "ominous developments" behind the scenes leading up to the

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claimed the efficient markets theory was first proposed by the French mathematician

4448: 4368: 4338: 4328: 4148: 4122: 3871: 3861: 3844: 3775: 3770: 3746: 3640: 3585: 3392: 2231: 1904:"The efficient market hypothesis: problems with interpretations of empirical tests" 1127: 1039:

and so, drawing on the philosopher of science and critic of neoclassical economics

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Price-Earnings ratios as a predictor of twenty-year returns based upon the plot by

3257:"As The Index Fund Moves from Heresy to Dogma . . . What More Do We Need To Know?" 2565: 2456:"Warren Buffett, 'Oracle of Omaha', criticises Wall Street and praises immigrants" 1435:

Mandelbrot, Benoit (January 1963). "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices".

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Taking logs and assuming that the Jensen's inequality term is negligible, we have

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Jung, Jeeman; Shiller, Robert (2005). "Samuelson's Dictum And The Stock Market".

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The efficient-market hypothesis emerged as a prominent theory in the mid-1960s.

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Remarks by John Bogle on the superior returns of passively managed index funds.

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The theory of efficient markets has been practically applied in the field of

68:

The idea that financial market returns are difficult to predict goes back to

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Francis Nicholson. Price-Earnings Ratios in Relation to Investment Results.

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Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work (and How They Don't)

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led to renewed scrutiny and criticism of the hypothesis. Market strategist

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valuable information in order to trade on it. Additionally, the concept of

2909:"Investors are finally seeing the nonsense in the efficient market theory" 1747:

Sahu, Santosh Kumar; Mokhade, Anil; Bokde, Neeraj Dhanraj (January 2023).

947:, who both believed irrational behavior had a real impact on the markets. 4252: 3888: 2837: 2801: 2011:"Here's What Warren Buffett Thinks About The Efficient Market Hypothesis" 859:

thereby quickly eliminating any vestige of individual biases. Similarly,

27:

Economic theory that asset prices fully reflect all available information

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Proof That Properly Discounted Present Values of Assets Vibrate Randomly

2557: 1765: 1748: 1535:"Benoit mandelbrot on efficient markets (interview - 30 September 2009)" 4096: 3218: 3130: 3058: 1938: 1412: 1395: 1357: 955: 1061:

who consistently more than doubled market averages while managing the

92:

can be thought of as the combination of a model of risk with the EMH.

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EMH anomalies and rejection of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

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attribute the imperfections in financial markets to a combination of

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market price, but often show no apparent relation to price changes".

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Bogle on Mutual Funds: New Perspectives for the Intelligent Investor

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accurate or accurate in all cases, given the recurrent existence of

978:

has also argued against EMH, most notably in his 1984 presentation "

735:

real price-earnings ratio of the S&P Composite Stock Price Index

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Stock Characters: As Two Economists Debate Markets, The Tide Shifts

1903: 1816: 1448: 847:

and other similar obligations subject to competitive market forces

3762: 3424: 718: 606:, the EMH does not always assume that stocks follow a martingale. 53: 3245:"Earnings Quality and the Equity Risk Premium: A Benchmark Model" 2400:

Artificial Intelligence and Economic Theory: Skynet in the Market

1186:

Halliburton v. Erica P. John Fund, U.S. Supreme Court, No. 13-317

1081:(when some assets are dramatically overpriced) and the fact that 2639: 3692: 3277: 1626:"Louis Bachelier on the Centenary of Theorie de la Speculation" 1371:

Schwert, G. William (2003). "Anomalies and market efficiency".

1168:

Efficient markets applied in securities class action litigation

3183:, Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 41–49. Reproduced as Chapter 198 in 2984:"Are Markets Efficient? Even the Supreme Court Is Weighing In" 2732:"Book Review: 'The Myth of the Rational Market' by Justin Fox" 1155:

to back away from the hypothesis. Posner accused some of his

1803:

Fama, Eugene (1965). "The Behavior of Stock Market Prices".

1284:) with or without the hyphen and/or with the word "markets". 3152:

Malkiel, Burton G. (1987). "efficient market hypothesis,"

1176:

Litigation. Efficient market theory, in conjunction with "

3239: 2585:. New York, NY: Simon & Schuster Paperback. p. 2484:. Guru Focus, via Yahoo Finance, accessed 25 March 2022 1583:

The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought

2875:"Has 'guiding model' for global markets gone haywire?" 2675:"Sun finally sets on notion that markets are rational" 112:

How efficient markets are (and are not) linked to the

2502:

Malkiel, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, 1996, p. 175

536: 521:

which implies that the log of stock prices follows a

438: 366: 323: 286: 266: 239: 133: 2076: 2074: 65:, that is, deviations from specific models of risk. 4230: 4105: 4004: 3924: 3832: 3799: 3760: 3726: 3623: 3568: 3527: 3463: 3311: 2236:

Contrarian Investment Strategy: The Next Generation

1400:

Annales Scientifiques de l'École Normale Supérieure

935:

View of some journalists, economists, and investors

353:Note that this equation does not generally imply a 2907: 1533: 1065:, has argued that the EMH is contradictory to the 592: 510: 417: 342: 305: 272: 252: 222: 855:in the pricing of these obligations would invite 3227:"Rest in Peace Post-Earnings Announcement Drift" 2250:"Modern Portfolio Theory vs. Behavioral Finance" 1569: 1567: 1565: 1563: 1561: 1472:The World Scientific Handbook of Futures Markets 260:is the expected value given information at time 3403:Qualifying investor alternative investment fund 2125: 2123: 3247:abstract from Contemporary Accounting Research 631:Strong-form tests regard private information. 3704: 3289: 2132:"The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns" 8: 3363:Labour-sponsored venture capital corporation 2929: 2927: 2166:Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 2029:"Soros: Financial Markets | Financial Times" 711:: weak, semi-strong and strong (see above). 350:is the dividend the stock pays next period. 2429:"Paul the octopus proves Buffett was right" 1151:The financial crisis led economics scholar 980:The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville 3711: 3697: 3689: 3675: 3296: 3282: 3274: 3253:abstract from Economic and Business Review 2398:Marwala, Tshilidzi; Hurwitz, Evan (2017). 1790:The Random Character of StockMarket Prices 1138:, the chief economics commentator for the 3099: 2547: 2352:"The Bitcoin Bubble and a Bad Hypothesis" 2147: 1764: 1717:The Current State of Business Disciplines 1411: 584: 568: 559: 547: 535: 493: 474: 449: 437: 400: 387: 371: 365: 328: 322: 291: 285: 265: 244: 238: 202: 183: 164: 151: 138: 132: 3145:Lo, Andrew and MacKinlay, Craig (2001). 3080:Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 3003:"New Hurdle in Investors' Class Actions" 2370:"Herausforderung künstliche Intelligenz" 958:is perhaps the finest example of a pure 819: 623:Weak, semi-strong, and strong-form tests 31: 3229:. Critical Finance Review, Forthcoming. 3156:New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics 2760:"Financial Reform: Unfinished Business" 2656:and the stock of mortgage lenders like 2482:Charlie Munger's Worldly Wisdom: Part 2 2277:. Fuller & Thaler Asset Management. 1296: 1269: 511:{\displaystyle \log P_{t}=\log M+E_{t}} 3187:, Volume III, Cambridge, M.I.T. Press. 3185:Samuelson, Collected Scientific Papers 3076:"The Analysis of Economic Time Series" 2383:GmbH, finanzen.net (12 October 2015). 1950: 1948: 1511:Prize Lecture for the Nobel Foundation 1021:has argued that the EMH is actually a 3192:"The Arithmetic of Active Management" 2920:from the original on 12 January 2022. 2704:"Poking Holes in a Theory on Markets" 1849:Schwager, Jack D. (19 October 2012). 1546:from the original on 10 December 2022 777:, overreaction, representative bias, 7: 2634:Schwager cites the 2000 spin-off of 2324:"The Case for Financial Reinvention" 1715:DIMSON, ELROY. "MARKET EFFICIENCY". 1542:. Financial times. 18 October 2010. 1373:Handbook of the Economics of Finance 1331: 1329: 1327: 1325: 118:fundamental theorem of asset pricing 116:theory can be described through the 2480:Rupert Hargreaves (April 13, 2017) 2149:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04398.x 2105:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1977.tb01979.x 2080:Empirical papers questioning EMH: 1017:, economist and financial analyst 757:Investors, including the likes of 25: 2730:Lowenstein, Roger (7 June 2009). 2322:Hurt III, Harry (19 March 2010). 733:). The horizontal axis shows the 80:, but is closely associated with 3967:Electronic communication network 3674: 3667: 3666: 2758:Paul Volcker (27 October 2011). 1876:Collin Read (15 December 2012). 1305:"Efficient markets theory (EMT)" 1118:said "The upside of the current 3147:A Non-random Walk Down Wall St. 2906:Stevenson, Tom (17 June 2009). 2350:Quiggin, John (16 April 2013). 2113:Journal of Portfolio Management 881:global financial crisis of 2008 835:. It is demonstrably true that 684:The Use of Knowledge in Society 86:consumption-based asset pricing 3500:Socially responsible investing 3430:Split capital investment trust 3164:A Random Walk Down Wall Street 2883:. 11 June 2009. Archived from 2427:Hoffman, Greg (14 July 2010). 2220:Journal of Financial Economics 1990:A Random Walk Down Wall Street 1958:Irrational Exuberance (2d ed.) 1731:Economic theory and the crisis 1676:A Festschrift for Herman Rubin 1504:"Two Pillars of Asset Pricing" 1046:Nobel Prize-winning economist 1005:A Random Walk Down Wall Street 574: 560: 540: 505: 480: 412: 393: 217: 214: 176: 157: 1: 3961:Multilateral trading facility 3388:Open-ended investment company 3001:Liptak, Adam (23 June 2014). 2982:Sommer, Jeff (28 June 2014). 1381:10.1016/S1574-0102(03)01024-0 4384:Returns-based style analysis 4180:Post-modern portfolio theory 4086:Security characteristic line 3646:Returns-based style analysis 3409:Real estate investment trust 3181:Industrial Management Review 2662:United States housing bubble 1832:Industrial Management Review 1595:10.1080/09672567.2010.540343 1014:The Reformation in Economics 982:". He says preponderance of 418:{\displaystyle P_{t}=ME_{t}} 4490:Efficient-market hypothesis 4138:Efficient-market hypothesis 4042:Capital asset pricing model 3979:Straight-through processing 3581:Efficient-market hypothesis 3225:Martineau, Charles (2021). 3162:Malkiel, Burton G. (1996). 2702:Nocera, Joe (5 June 2009). 2130:Fama, E; French, K (1992). 1788:Cootner, Paul, ed. (1964). 1396:"Théorie de la spéculation" 1217:Financial market efficiency 1057:, a mutual fund manager at 709:financial market efficiency 223:{\displaystyle P_{t}=E_{t}} 42:efficient-market hypothesis 4516: 3955:Alternative Trading System 3420:Short-term investment fund 2972:. Wall Street Journal 2004 2789:Financial Analysts Journal 2654:mortgage-backed securities 2194:Financial Analysts Journal 2085:Financial Analysts Journal 1963:Princeton University Press 1574:Jovanovic, Franck (2012). 1480:10.1142/9789814566926_0002 1207:Adaptive market hypothesis 1178:fraud-on-the-market theory 1107:2007–2008 financial crisis 1101:2007–2008 financial crisis 921:Fama-French 3 factor model 315:stochastic discount factor 90:intermediary asset pricing 3664: 3368:Listed investment company 3337:Fonds commun de placement 3119:Atlantic Economic Journal 3074:Kendall, Maurice (1942). 1865:– via Google Books. 1855:. John Wiley & Sons. 1222:Grossman-Stiglitz Paradox 1092:In a 2012 book, investor 4019:Arbitrage pricing theory 3576:Arbitrage pricing theory 3159:, v. 2, pp. 120–23. 2765:New York Review of Books 1955:Shiller, Robert (2005). 4298:Initial public offering 4159:Modern portfolio theory 4054:Dividend discount model 3937:List of stock exchanges 3651:Traditional investments 3636:Commodity pool operator 3610:Noisy market hypothesis 3605:Modern portfolio theory 3455:Unitised insurance fund 3383:Open-ended fund company 3325:Common contractual fund 2301:10.1111/1540-6261.00556 2206:10.2469/faj.v51.n4.1917 2179:10.1111/1468-5957.00134 2087:. Jan/Feb 1968:105–109. 1684:10.1214/lnms/1196285381 1645:10.1111/1467-9965.00098 1437:The Journal of Business 1278:efficient-market theory 1242:Noisy market hypothesis 1182:Securities Class Action 1174:Securities Class Action 1030:will converge with the 970:artificial intelligence 925:Modern Portfolio Theory 903:While event studies of 851:. Any manifestation of 810:modern portfolio theory 593:{\displaystyle E=S_{t}} 343:{\displaystyle D_{t+1}} 306:{\displaystyle M_{t+1}} 4186:Random walk hypothesis 3631:Alternative investment 3545:Institutional investor 2055:The Alchemy of Finance 2053:Soros, George (1987). 1394:Bachelier, L. (1900). 1257:Random walk hypothesis 1067:random walk hypothesis 853:hyperbolic discounting 833:hyperbolic discounting 827: 754: 705:random walk hypothesis 689:random walk hypothesis 682:argued in his article 594: 512: 419: 344: 307: 274: 254: 224: 100:Theoretical background 37: 4324:Market capitalization 4133:Dollar cost averaging 3445:Unit investment trust 3305:Investment management 2658:Countrywide Financial 2582:One Up On Wall Street 2579:Lynch, Peter (1989). 2434:Sydney Morning Herald 2356:The National Interest 2238:. Simon and Schuster. 1502:Fama, Eugene (2013). 1252:Transparency (market) 1192:' because it allows ' 865:derivative securities 823: 816:Behavioral psychology 767:Behavioral economists 739:Irrational Exuberance 722: 635:Historical background 595: 513: 420: 345: 308: 275: 255: 253:{\displaystyle E_{t}} 225: 48:) is a hypothesis in 35: 4144:Fundamental analysis 4128:Contrarian investing 4091:Security market line 3996:Liquidity aggregator 3973:Direct market access 3884:Quantitative analyst 3435:Tax transparent fund 3331:Exchange-traded fund 3149:Princeton Paperbacks 3022:Bogle, John (1994). 2968:6 April 2012 at the 2838:10.2139/ssrn.3686552 2802:10.2469/faj.v66.n4.4 2057:. Wiley. p. 6. 1633:Mathematical Finance 1180:", has been used in 1087:fundamental analysis 1059:Fidelity Investments 534: 436: 364: 321: 284: 264: 237: 131: 4389:Reverse stock split 4334:Market manipulation 4258:Dual-listed company 4118:Algorithmic trading 4048:Capital market line 3850:Inter-dealer broker 3490:Manager of managers 3398:Private-equity fund 3190:Sharpe, William F. 3092:1942Natur.150..335B 2961:Jon E. Hilsenrath, 2914:The Daily Telegraph 2814:Quote on p. 7. 2737:The Washington Post 2273:Thaler RH. (2008). 1805:Journal of Business 1766:10.3390/app13031956 1737:. 14 November 2009. 945:John Maynard Keynes 50:financial economics 4500:Behavioral finance 4495:1900 introductions 4429:Stock market index 4268:Efficient frontier 4207:Technical analysis 4165:Momentum investing 3987:(private exchange) 3877:Proprietary trader 3819:Shares outstanding 3809:Authorised capital 3600:Martingale pricing 3510:Thematic investing 3475:passive management 3131:10.1007/BF02304624 3007:The New York Times 2988:The New York Times 2935:"After the Blowup" 2880:The Jerusalem Post 2709:The New York Times 2680:The Globe and Mail 2462:. 25 February 2017 2372:. 9 November 2015. 2329:The New York Times 2289:Journal of Finance 2136:Journal of Finance 2093:Journal of Finance 1919:Journal of Finance 1413:10.24033/asens.476 1338:Journal of Finance 954:has claimed that " 879:as central to the 828: 755: 590: 508: 415: 340: 303: 270: 250: 220: 38: 4477: 4476: 4278:Flight-to-quality 4030:Buffett indicator 3720:Financial markets 3686: 3685: 3464:Investment styles 2943:. 11 January 2010 2624:978-1-118-49456-1 2596:978-0-671-66103-8 2558:10.1093/ei/cbi015 2413:978-3-319-66104-9 1986:Burton G. Malkiel 1972:978-0-691-12335-6 1693:978-0-940600-61-4 1237:Investment theory 1212:Dumb agent theory 1019:Philip Pilkington 966:Tshilidzi Marwala 802:price-to-earnings 732: 668:Andrey Kolmogorov 648:random walk model 640:Benoit Mandelbrot 610:Empirical studies 273:{\displaystyle t} 52:that states that 16:(Redirected from 4507: 4394:Share repurchase 4106:Trading theories 3991:Crossing network 3949:Over-the-counter 3786:Restricted stock 3742:Secondary market 3713: 3706: 3699: 3690: 3678: 3677: 3670: 3669: 3519:growth investing 3485:Impact investing 3353:Investment trust 3298: 3291: 3284: 3275: 3222: 3166:, W. W. Norton, 3142: 3113: 3103: 3101:10.1038/150335a0 3070: 3011: 3010: 2998: 2992: 2991: 2979: 2973: 2959: 2953: 2952: 2950: 2948: 2931: 2922: 2921: 2911: 2903: 2897: 2896: 2894: 2892: 2871: 2865: 2864: 2862: 2860: 2821: 2815: 2813: 2783: 2777: 2776: 2774: 2772: 2755: 2749: 2748: 2746: 2744: 2727: 2721: 2720: 2718: 2716: 2699: 2693: 2692: 2690: 2688: 2671: 2665: 2650: 2644: 2632: 2626: 2616: 2610: 2607: 2601: 2600: 2576: 2570: 2569: 2551: 2536:Economic Inquiry 2531: 2525: 2520: 2514: 2509: 2503: 2500: 2494: 2491: 2485: 2478: 2472: 2471: 2469: 2467: 2452: 2446: 2445: 2443: 2441: 2424: 2418: 2417: 2395: 2389: 2388: 2380: 2374: 2373: 2366: 2360: 2359: 2347: 2341: 2340: 2338: 2336: 2319: 2313: 2312: 2295:(3): 1009–1032. 2284: 2278: 2271: 2265: 2264: 2262: 2260: 2245: 2239: 2229: 2223: 2216: 2210: 2209: 2189: 2183: 2182: 2160: 2154: 2153: 2151: 2127: 2118: 2108: 2078: 2069: 2068: 2050: 2044: 2043: 2041: 2039: 2025: 2019: 2018: 2015:Business Insider 2007: 2001: 1983: 1977: 1976: 1952: 1943: 1942: 1914: 1908: 1907: 1900: 1894: 1893: 1873: 1867: 1866: 1846: 1840: 1839: 1827: 1821: 1820: 1800: 1794: 1793: 1785: 1779: 1778: 1768: 1753:Applied Sciences 1744: 1738: 1727: 1721: 1720: 1712: 1706: 1705: 1671: 1665: 1664: 1630: 1621: 1615: 1614: 1580: 1571: 1556: 1555: 1553: 1551: 1537: 1530: 1524: 1521: 1515: 1514: 1508: 1499: 1493: 1492: 1467: 1461: 1460: 1432: 1426: 1425: 1415: 1391: 1385: 1384: 1368: 1362: 1361: 1333: 1320: 1319: 1317: 1315: 1301: 1285: 1274: 1116:Roger Lowenstein 1079:economic bubbles 1032:average investor 779:information bias 771:cognitive biases 743:ten-year returns 728: 602:which follows a 599: 597: 596: 591: 589: 588: 573: 572: 563: 558: 557: 525:(with a drift). 517: 515: 514: 509: 504: 503: 479: 478: 454: 453: 424: 422: 421: 416: 411: 410: 392: 391: 376: 375: 349: 347: 346: 341: 339: 338: 312: 310: 309: 304: 302: 301: 279: 277: 276: 271: 259: 257: 256: 251: 249: 248: 229: 227: 226: 221: 213: 212: 194: 193: 175: 174: 156: 155: 143: 142: 63:market anomalies 21: 18:Efficient market 4515: 4514: 4510: 4509: 4508: 4506: 4505: 4504: 4480: 4479: 4478: 4473: 4464:Voting interest 4374:Public offering 4309:Mandatory offer 4283:Government bond 4263:DuPont analysis 4226: 4222:Value investing 4217:Value averaging 4212:Trend following 4197:Style investing 4192:Sector rotation 4107: 4101: 4080:Net asset value 4006:Stock valuation 4000: 3920: 3828: 3795: 3781:Preferred stock 3756: 3722: 3717: 3687: 3682: 3660: 3619: 3564: 3560:Performance fee 3550:Net asset value 3540:Fund governance 3535:Closed-end fund 3523: 3459: 3316: 3314: 3307: 3302: 3236: 3211:10.2307/1907574 3196: 3116: 3086:(3803): 11–25. 3073: 3051:10.2307/1905515 3036: 3019: 3017:Further reading 3014: 3000: 2999: 2995: 2981: 2980: 2976: 2970:Wayback Machine 2960: 2956: 2946: 2944: 2933: 2932: 2925: 2905: 2904: 2900: 2890: 2888: 2873: 2872: 2868: 2858: 2856: 2823: 2822: 2818: 2785: 2784: 2780: 2770: 2768: 2757: 2756: 2752: 2742: 2740: 2729: 2728: 2724: 2714: 2712: 2701: 2700: 2696: 2686: 2684: 2673: 2672: 2668: 2651: 2647: 2633: 2629: 2617: 2613: 2608: 2604: 2597: 2578: 2577: 2573: 2533: 2532: 2528: 2521: 2517: 2510: 2506: 2501: 2497: 2492: 2488: 2479: 2475: 2465: 2463: 2454: 2453: 2449: 2439: 2437: 2426: 2425: 2421: 2414: 2397: 2396: 2392: 2382: 2381: 2377: 2368: 2367: 2363: 2349: 2348: 2344: 2334: 2332: 2321: 2320: 2316: 2286: 2285: 2281: 2272: 2268: 2258: 2256: 2247: 2246: 2242: 2230: 2226: 2217: 2213: 2191: 2190: 2186: 2162: 2161: 2157: 2129: 2128: 2121: 2090: 2079: 2072: 2065: 2052: 2051: 2047: 2037: 2035: 2027: 2026: 2022: 2009: 2008: 2004: 1984: 1980: 1973: 1954: 1953: 1946: 1931:10.2307/2325486 1916: 1915: 1911: 1902: 1901: 1897: 1890: 1875: 1874: 1870: 1863: 1848: 1847: 1843: 1829: 1828: 1824: 1802: 1801: 1797: 1787: 1786: 1782: 1746: 1745: 1741: 1729:Kirman, Alan. " 1728: 1724: 1714: 1713: 1709: 1694: 1673: 1672: 1668: 1628: 1623: 1622: 1618: 1578: 1573: 1572: 1559: 1549: 1547: 1532: 1531: 1527: 1522: 1518: 1506: 1501: 1500: 1496: 1490: 1469: 1468: 1464: 1434: 1433: 1429: 1393: 1392: 1388: 1370: 1369: 1365: 1350:10.2307/2325486 1335: 1334: 1323: 1313: 1311: 1303: 1302: 1298: 1294: 1289: 1288: 1275: 1271: 1266: 1261: 1232:Insider trading 1202: 1194:direct evidence 1170: 1141:Financial Times 1124:Federal Reserve 1120:Great Recession 1111:Jeremy Grantham 1103: 1083:value investors 1028:actual investor 984:value investors 937: 914:Roll's critique 901: 861:diversification 825:Daniel Kahneman 818: 783:Daniel Kahneman 737:as computed in 717: 644:Louis Bachelier 637: 625: 612: 580: 564: 543: 532: 531: 489: 470: 445: 434: 433: 396: 383: 367: 362: 361: 324: 319: 318: 287: 282: 281: 262: 261: 240: 235: 234: 198: 179: 160: 147: 134: 129: 128: 102: 28: 23: 22: 15: 12: 11: 5: 4513: 4511: 4503: 4502: 4497: 4492: 4482: 4481: 4475: 4474: 4472: 4471: 4466: 4461: 4456: 4451: 4446: 4441: 4436: 4431: 4426: 4424:Stock exchange 4421: 4419:Stock dilution 4416: 4411: 4406: 4401: 4396: 4391: 4386: 4381: 4376: 4371: 4366: 4361: 4356: 4351: 4346: 4344:Mean reversion 4341: 4336: 4331: 4326: 4321: 4319:Market anomaly 4316: 4311: 4306: 4301: 4295: 4290: 4285: 4280: 4275: 4270: 4265: 4260: 4255: 4250: 4245: 4240: 4238:Bid–ask spread 4234: 4232: 4228: 4227: 4225: 4224: 4219: 4214: 4209: 4204: 4199: 4194: 4189: 4183: 4177: 4172: 4167: 4162: 4156: 4151: 4146: 4141: 4135: 4130: 4125: 4120: 4114: 4112: 4103: 4102: 4100: 4099: 4094: 4088: 4083: 4077: 4072: 4067: 4065:Earnings yield 4062: 4060:Dividend yield 4057: 4051: 4045: 4039: 4033: 4027: 4022: 4016: 4010: 4008: 4002: 4001: 3999: 3998: 3993: 3988: 3982: 3976: 3970: 3964: 3958: 3952: 3951:(off-exchange) 3946: 3945: 3944: 3939: 3928: 3926: 3925:Trading venues 3922: 3921: 3919: 3918: 3913: 3912: 3911: 3901: 3896: 3891: 3886: 3881: 3880: 3879: 3874: 3864: 3859: 3854: 3853: 3852: 3847: 3836: 3834: 3830: 3829: 3827: 3826: 3824:Treasury stock 3821: 3816: 3811: 3805: 3803: 3797: 3796: 3794: 3793: 3791:Tracking stock 3788: 3783: 3778: 3773: 3767: 3765: 3758: 3757: 3755: 3754: 3749: 3744: 3739: 3737:Primary market 3733: 3731: 3724: 3723: 3718: 3716: 3715: 3708: 3701: 3693: 3684: 3683: 3665: 3662: 3661: 3659: 3658: 3653: 3648: 3643: 3638: 3633: 3627: 3625: 3624:Related topics 3621: 3620: 3618: 3617: 3612: 3607: 3602: 3597: 3583: 3578: 3572: 3570: 3566: 3565: 3563: 3562: 3557: 3552: 3547: 3542: 3537: 3531: 3529: 3525: 3524: 3522: 3521: 3512: 3507: 3505:Social trading 3502: 3497: 3495:Social finance 3492: 3487: 3482: 3477: 3467: 3465: 3461: 3460: 3458: 3457: 3452: 3447: 3442: 3437: 3432: 3427: 3422: 3417: 3412: 3406: 3400: 3395: 3390: 3385: 3380: 3375: 3370: 3365: 3360: 3355: 3350: 3345: 3340: 3334: 3328: 3321: 3319: 3309: 3308: 3303: 3301: 3300: 3293: 3286: 3278: 3272: 3271: 3266: 3265:Paul Samuelson 3260: 3254: 3248: 3242: 3235: 3234:External links 3232: 3231: 3230: 3223: 3205:(4): 916–918. 3194: 3188: 3177: 3174: 3160: 3150: 3143: 3114: 3071: 3045:(3): 280–294. 3034: 3018: 3015: 3013: 3012: 2993: 2974: 2954: 2940:The New Yorker 2923: 2898: 2887:on 8 July 2012 2866: 2816: 2778: 2750: 2722: 2694: 2666: 2645: 2627: 2611: 2602: 2595: 2571: 2549:10.1.1.65.9446 2542:(2): 221–228. 2526: 2515: 2504: 2495: 2486: 2473: 2447: 2419: 2412: 2390: 2375: 2361: 2342: 2314: 2279: 2266: 2240: 2224: 2211: 2184: 2173:(6): 803–813. 2155: 2142:(2): 427–465. 2119: 2117: 2116: 2109: 2099:(3): 663–682. 2088: 2070: 2064:978-0471445494 2063: 2045: 2020: 2002: 1978: 1971: 1944: 1925:(2): 383–417. 1909: 1895: 1888: 1868: 1861: 1841: 1822: 1817:10.1086/294743 1795: 1780: 1739: 1722: 1707: 1692: 1666: 1639:(3): 339–353. 1616: 1589:(3): 431–451. 1557: 1525: 1516: 1494: 1488: 1462: 1449:10.1086/294632 1427: 1386: 1363: 1344:(2): 383–417. 1321: 1295: 1293: 1290: 1287: 1286: 1268: 1267: 1265: 1262: 1260: 1259: 1254: 1249: 1247:Perfect market 1244: 1239: 1234: 1229: 1224: 1219: 1214: 1209: 1203: 1201: 1198: 1169: 1166: 1157:Chicago School 1153:Richard Posner 1102: 1099: 1048:Paul Samuelson 1000:Burton Malkiel 993:Charlie Munger 976:Warren Buffett 968:surmised that 936: 933: 900: 897: 817: 814: 795:Richard Thaler 793:and economist 775:overconfidence 759:Warren Buffett 751:interest rates 747:Burton Malkiel 727:(Figure 10.1, 725:Robert Shiller 716: 713: 700:Paul Samuelson 664:William Feller 660:Joseph L. Doob 656:Leonard Savage 652:Jules Regnault 636: 633: 624: 621: 611: 608: 587: 583: 579: 576: 571: 567: 562: 556: 553: 550: 546: 542: 539: 519: 518: 507: 502: 499: 496: 492: 488: 485: 482: 477: 473: 469: 466: 463: 460: 457: 452: 448: 444: 441: 427: 426: 414: 409: 406: 403: 399: 395: 390: 386: 382: 379: 374: 370: 337: 334: 331: 327: 300: 297: 294: 290: 269: 247: 243: 231: 230: 219: 216: 211: 208: 205: 201: 197: 192: 189: 186: 182: 178: 173: 170: 167: 163: 159: 154: 150: 146: 141: 137: 101: 98: 26: 24: 14: 13: 10: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 4512: 4501: 4498: 4496: 4493: 4491: 4488: 4487: 4485: 4470: 4467: 4465: 4462: 4460: 4457: 4455: 4452: 4450: 4447: 4445: 4442: 4440: 4437: 4435: 4432: 4430: 4427: 4425: 4422: 4420: 4417: 4415: 4412: 4410: 4407: 4405: 4402: 4400: 4399:Short selling 4397: 4395: 4392: 4390: 4387: 4385: 4382: 4380: 4377: 4375: 4372: 4370: 4367: 4365: 4362: 4360: 4357: 4355: 4352: 4350: 4347: 4345: 4342: 4340: 4337: 4335: 4332: 4330: 4327: 4325: 4322: 4320: 4317: 4315: 4312: 4310: 4307: 4305: 4302: 4299: 4296: 4294: 4291: 4289: 4288:Greenspan put 4286: 4284: 4281: 4279: 4276: 4274: 4273:Financial law 4271: 4269: 4266: 4264: 4261: 4259: 4256: 4254: 4251: 4249: 4248:Cross listing 4246: 4244: 4241: 4239: 4236: 4235: 4233: 4231:Related terms 4229: 4223: 4220: 4218: 4215: 4213: 4210: 4208: 4205: 4203: 4202:Swing trading 4200: 4198: 4195: 4193: 4190: 4187: 4184: 4181: 4178: 4176: 4173: 4171: 4170:Mosaic theory 4168: 4166: 4163: 4160: 4157: 4155: 4154:Market timing 4152: 4150: 4147: 4145: 4142: 4139: 4136: 4134: 4131: 4129: 4126: 4124: 4121: 4119: 4116: 4115: 4113: 4111: 4104: 4098: 4095: 4092: 4089: 4087: 4084: 4081: 4078: 4076: 4073: 4071: 4068: 4066: 4063: 4061: 4058: 4055: 4052: 4049: 4046: 4043: 4040: 4037: 4034: 4031: 4028: 4026: 4023: 4020: 4017: 4015: 4012: 4011: 4009: 4007: 4003: 3997: 3994: 3992: 3989: 3986: 3983: 3980: 3977: 3974: 3971: 3968: 3965: 3962: 3959: 3956: 3953: 3950: 3947: 3943: 3942:Trading hours 3940: 3938: 3935: 3934: 3933: 3930: 3929: 3927: 3923: 3917: 3914: 3910: 3907: 3906: 3905: 3902: 3900: 3897: 3895: 3892: 3890: 3887: 3885: 3882: 3878: 3875: 3873: 3870: 3869: 3868: 3865: 3863: 3860: 3858: 3857:Broker-dealer 3855: 3851: 3848: 3846: 3843: 3842: 3841: 3838: 3837: 3835: 3831: 3825: 3822: 3820: 3817: 3815: 3814:Issued shares 3812: 3810: 3807: 3806: 3804: 3802: 3801:Share capital 3798: 3792: 3789: 3787: 3784: 3782: 3779: 3777: 3774: 3772: 3769: 3768: 3766: 3764: 3759: 3753: 3752:Fourth market 3750: 3748: 3745: 3743: 3740: 3738: 3735: 3734: 3732: 3730: 3725: 3721: 3714: 3709: 3707: 3702: 3700: 3695: 3694: 3691: 3681: 3673: 3663: 3657: 3654: 3652: 3649: 3647: 3644: 3642: 3639: 3637: 3634: 3632: 3629: 3628: 3626: 3622: 3616: 3613: 3611: 3608: 3606: 3603: 3601: 3598: 3595: 3591: 3587: 3584: 3582: 3579: 3577: 3574: 3573: 3571: 3567: 3561: 3558: 3556: 3555:Open-end fund 3553: 3551: 3548: 3546: 3543: 3541: 3538: 3536: 3533: 3532: 3530: 3526: 3520: 3516: 3513: 3511: 3508: 3506: 3503: 3501: 3498: 3496: 3493: 3491: 3488: 3486: 3483: 3481: 3478: 3476: 3472: 3469: 3468: 3466: 3462: 3456: 3453: 3451: 3448: 3446: 3443: 3441: 3440:Umbrella fund 3438: 3436: 3433: 3431: 3428: 3426: 3423: 3421: 3418: 3416: 3415:Royalty trust 3413: 3410: 3407: 3404: 3401: 3399: 3396: 3394: 3391: 3389: 3386: 3384: 3381: 3379: 3378:Offshore fund 3376: 3374: 3371: 3369: 3366: 3364: 3361: 3359: 3356: 3354: 3351: 3349: 3346: 3344: 3343:Fund of funds 3341: 3338: 3335: 3332: 3329: 3326: 3323: 3322: 3320: 3318: 3310: 3306: 3299: 3294: 3292: 3287: 3285: 3280: 3279: 3276: 3270: 3267: 3264: 3261: 3258: 3255: 3252: 3249: 3246: 3243: 3241: 3238: 3237: 3233: 3228: 3224: 3220: 3216: 3212: 3208: 3204: 3200: 3195: 3193: 3189: 3186: 3182: 3178: 3175: 3173: 3172:0-393-03888-2 3169: 3165: 3161: 3158: 3157: 3151: 3148: 3144: 3140: 3136: 3132: 3128: 3124: 3120: 3115: 3111: 3107: 3102: 3097: 3093: 3089: 3085: 3081: 3077: 3072: 3068: 3064: 3060: 3056: 3052: 3048: 3044: 3040: 3035: 3033: 3032:0-440-50682-4 3029: 3025: 3021: 3020: 3016: 3008: 3004: 2997: 2994: 2989: 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1505: 1498: 1495: 1491: 1489:9789814566919 1485: 1481: 1477: 1473: 1466: 1463: 1458: 1454: 1450: 1446: 1442: 1438: 1431: 1428: 1423: 1419: 1414: 1409: 1405: 1401: 1397: 1390: 1387: 1382: 1378: 1374: 1367: 1364: 1359: 1355: 1351: 1347: 1343: 1339: 1332: 1330: 1328: 1326: 1322: 1310: 1306: 1300: 1297: 1291: 1283: 1279: 1273: 1270: 1263: 1258: 1255: 1253: 1250: 1248: 1245: 1243: 1240: 1238: 1235: 1233: 1230: 1228: 1225: 1223: 1220: 1218: 1215: 1213: 1210: 1208: 1205: 1204: 1199: 1197: 1195: 1191: 1187: 1183: 1179: 1175: 1167: 1165: 1163: 1158: 1154: 1149: 1147: 1146:Paul McCulley 1143: 1142: 1137: 1132: 1129: 1125: 1121: 1117: 1112: 1108: 1100: 1098: 1095: 1094:Jack Schwager 1090: 1088: 1084: 1080: 1074: 1072: 1068: 1064: 1063:Magellan Fund 1060: 1056: 1052: 1049: 1044: 1042: 1038: 1037:falsification 1033: 1029: 1024: 1020: 1016: 1015: 1009: 1007: 1006: 1001: 997: 994: 990: 985: 981: 977: 973: 971: 967: 963: 961: 957: 953: 948: 946: 942: 934: 932: 930: 929:Robert Haugen 926: 922: 917: 915: 911: 906: 898: 896: 893: 890: 884: 882: 878: 877:herd behavior 874: 870: 869:loss aversion 866: 862: 858: 854: 850: 846: 842: 838: 834: 826: 822: 815: 813: 811: 807: 803: 798: 796: 792: 788: 784: 780: 776: 772: 768: 764: 760: 752: 748: 744: 740: 736: 731: 726: 721: 714: 712: 710: 706: 701: 696: 692: 690: 685: 681: 675: 671: 669: 665: 661: 657: 653: 649: 645: 641: 634: 632: 628: 622: 620: 617: 616:Alfred Cowles 609: 607: 605: 600: 585: 581: 577: 569: 565: 554: 551: 548: 544: 537: 529: 526: 524: 500: 497: 494: 490: 486: 483: 475: 471: 467: 464: 461: 458: 455: 450: 446: 442: 439: 432: 431: 430: 407: 404: 401: 397: 388: 384: 380: 377: 372: 368: 360: 359: 358: 356: 351: 335: 332: 329: 325: 316: 298: 295: 292: 288: 267: 245: 241: 209: 206: 203: 199: 195: 190: 187: 184: 180: 171: 168: 165: 161: 152: 148: 144: 139: 135: 127: 126: 125: 123: 119: 115: 110: 106: 99: 97: 93: 91: 87: 83: 79: 75: 71: 66: 64: 58: 55: 51: 47: 43: 34: 30: 19: 4449:Tender offer 4369:Public float 4339:Market trend 4329:Market depth 4149:Growth stock 4137: 4123:Buy and hold 4032:(Cap-to-GDP) 3872:Floor trader 3862:Market maker 3845:Floor broker 3833:Participants 3776:Golden share 3771:Common stock 3747:Third market 3641:Robo-advisor 3586:Fixed income 3580: 3517: / 3473: / 3393:Pension fund 3202: 3199:Econometrica 3198: 3184: 3180: 3163: 3153: 3146: 3125:(3): 51–55. 3122: 3118: 3083: 3079: 3042: 3039:Econometrica 3038: 3023: 3006: 2996: 2987: 2977: 2957: 2945:. 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London: 2259:10 October 2234:. (1998). 2038:31 January 2033:www.ft.com 1811:: 34–105. 1540:www.ft.com 1443:(4): 394. 1314:10 October 1292:References 1227:Index fund 950:Economist 941:Adam Smith 873:complexity 680:F.A. 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