130:. Elliott speculated that a Grand Supercycle advance had started in the United States stock market in 1857 and ran to the year 1928, but acknowledged another interpretation that it may have been the third or even the fifth Grand Supercycle wave. However, these assignments have been reevaluated and clarified using larger historical financial data sets in the works of A. J. Frost and R.R. Prechter, and the start is now considered to be 1789, when stock market data began to be recorded.
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irresponsible – except to themselves and their families, of course. They always get reelected so they're doing that correctly. I mean, it's working for them as individuals but it's not working for the country. Anyway, to save their own skins I think the most likely thing is that they will turn to the
Treasury, whether they keep the Federal Reserve System or not, and say, "Let's print, let's get the machines going and print those greenbacks and spread them around."
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The credit bubble: the fact that we do not have currency inflation as much as we have credit inflation. And credit bubbles have always imploded. The amount of dollars out there that are greenbacks – actual cash – is minuscule compared to the dollar value of credit instruments. So in my view the Fed
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reached a new all-time high, which has been interpreted by some
Elliott Wave analysts as indicating that 2000–2002 was not the beginning of a Grand Supercycle bear market. However, as this new high was merely a nominal new high in US dollars, and not a new high when measured in ounces of gold other
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is utterly powerless to prevent the ultimate deflation of the credit bubble. And some people say, "Well, they can print money." Fine, that would just make the credit bubble collapse faster as soon as bond holders realize that's what they were doing. There's no way out of it. So that's the argument.
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Well, the hyperinflation part is a pure guess based on politics. It has nothing to do with reading markets. I think the markets are telegraphing deflation, and I'm very confident about that. Hyperinflation to me is going to be the natural political response. I mean these people in
Congress are so
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Stock transactions did not occur during the first years of the United States and price data is thus not available. The notion of the Grand
Supercycle was thus implied by R. N. Elliott by linking together gold prices, British stock market prices, and later U.S. stock market prices, as the U.S.
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A controversial issue is whether the severe economic recession accompanying the termination of the current Grand
Supercycle will take the form of either a deflationary depression or a hyperinflationary period. Robert Prechter has repeatedly stated that the collapse will take the form of a
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Modern application of
Elliott wave theory posits that a Grand Supercycle wave five is completing in the 21st century and should be followed by a corrective price pattern of decline that will represent the largest economic recession since the 1700s.
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The idea of a Grand
Supercycle bear market may be interpreted to suggest that mankind will never learn from its past mistakes, or become self-aware in a macro-economic sense. The historical study presented in
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deflationary depression probably followed by hyperinflation. In an
October 2006 interview, when asked to make his case for deflation and the key factors that supported it, Prechter said:
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take this view and align instead around a belief that defined sequences of generations relearn approximately the same lessons as their forebears. Similar ideas can be found in the
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A Spectral
Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008–2009 Economic Crisis
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Like all
Elliott waves, Grand Supercycle waves are subdivided into smaller generations of waves. The next smaller generation of waves are those of
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The hypothesized Grand Supercycle is conjectured to span more time than a human life, which some say means it cannot exist. Followers of
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degree. Modern applications of the Wave Principle also describe waves of larger degree spanning millennial periods of time.
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started in 1987. When that was proven incorrect it was later revised to be 2000 and then 2006.
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Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression
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Elliott, R.N. (1980) . "The Wave Principle". In Prechter, R.R. (ed.).
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Many controversies surround the concept of the Grand Supercycle:
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The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History
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Elliott Wave analysts believe this new high to be 'phony'.
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Some Elliott wave analysts believe that a Grand Supercycle
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Possible Elliott wave position of world stock markets
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210:. The Saeculum might map to the Kondratiev cycle.
377:"Market Place; 2 Theorists Split On Elliott Wave"
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307:Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior
303:Alfred John Frost, Robert Rougelot Prechter,
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441:View from the Top of the Grand Supercycle
126:, originally conceived and formulated by
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290:. New Classics Library. p. 56.
375:Norris, Floyd (February 6, 1989).
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544:, & Tsirel, Sergey V.(2010).
169:Expectation of economic recession
288:The Major Works of R.N. Elliott
444:. New Classics Library. 2003.
344:At the Crest of the Tidal Wave
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414:. John Wiley and Sons. 2002.
162:Dow Jones Industrial Average
62:(infrastructural investment)
234:are becoming steadily less
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118:is the longest period, or
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504:Robert R. Prechter, Jr.
471:Robert R. Prechter, Jr.
435:Robert R. Prechter, Jr.
401:Robert R. Prechter, Jr.
338:Robert R. Prechter, Jr.
224:Oxford University Press
550:Structure and Dynamics
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124:Elliott wave principle
507:Tim W. Wood interview
327:Chapter 5, Figure 5-4
254:David Hackett Fischer
216:David Hackett Fischer
160:During 2006–2007 the
73:(technological basis)
552:. Vol.4. #1. P.3-57.
542:Korotayev, Andrey V.
128:Ralph Nelson Elliott
349:John Wiley and Sons
314:. 8 February 2001.
312:John Wiley and Sons
153:in US and European
21:
566:Technical analysis
512:2011-07-21 at the
491:2008-12-22 at the
480:2015-11-07 at the
381:The New York Times
364:Chapters 2 & 5
51:(fixed investment)
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576:Financial markets
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49:Juglar cycle
190:Controversy
151:bear market
83:This box:
560:Categories
523:References
486:transcript
135:Supercycle
38:pork cycle
475:interview
17:Proposed
510:Archived
489:Archived
478:Archived
351:. 1997.
243:See also
236:volatile
531:(2000)
457:Preview
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386:May 4,
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228:crises
155:stocks
76:45–60
65:15–25
270:Notes
208:Bible
54:7–11
533:ISBN
484:and
446:ISBN
416:ISBN
388:2010
353:ISBN
316:ISBN
120:wave
114:The
103:edit
96:talk
89:view
43:3–5
230:in
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