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Volatility (finance)

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To annualize this, you can use the "rule of 16", that is, multiply by 16 to get 16% as the annual volatility. The rationale for this is that 16 is the square root of 256, which is approximately the number of trading days in a year (252). This also uses the fact that the standard deviation of the sum
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One method of measuring Volatility, often used by quant option trading firms, divides up volatility into two components. Clean volatility - the amount of volatility caused standard events like daily transactions and general noise - and dirty vol, the amount caused by specific events like earnings or
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For example, a lower volatility stock may have an expected (average) return of 7%, with annual volatility of 5%. Ignoring compounding effects, this would indicate returns from approximately negative 3% to positive 17% most of the time (19 times out of 20, or 95% via a two standard deviation rule). A
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Measures of volatility depend not only on the period over which it is measured, but also on the selected time resolution, as the information flow between short-term and long-term traders is asymmetric. As a result, volatility measured with high resolution contains information that is not covered by
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Despite the sophisticated composition of most volatility forecasting models, critics claim that their predictive power is similar to that of plain-vanilla measures, such as simple past volatility especially out-of-sample, where different data are used to estimate the models and to test them. Other
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Some authors point out that realized volatility and implied volatility are backward and forward looking measures, and do not reflect current volatility. To address that issue an alternative, ensemble measures of volatility were suggested. One of the measures is defined as the standard deviation of
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Breaking down volatility into two components is useful in order to accurately price how much an option is worth, especially when identifying what events may contribute to a swing. The job of fundamental analysts at market makers and option trading boutique firms typically entails trying to assign
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that the instrument's price will be farther away from the initial price as time increases. However, rather than increase linearly, the volatility increases with the square-root of time as time increases, because some fluctuations are expected to cancel each other out, so the most likely deviation
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expressed his disillusion with the enormous supply of empirical models unsupported by theory. He argues that, while "theories are attempts to uncover the hidden principles underpinning the world around us, as Albert Einstein did with his theory of relativity", we should remember that "models are
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Using a simplification of the above formula it is possible to estimate annualized volatility based solely on approximate observations. Suppose you notice that a market price index, which has a current value near 10,000, has moved about 100 points a day, on average, for many days. This would
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Müller, Ulrich A.; Dacorogna, Michel M.; Olsen, Richard B.; Pictet, Olivier V.; Schwarz, Matthias; Morgenegg, Claude (1 December 1990). "Statistical study of foreign exchange rates, empirical evidence of a price change scaling law, and intraday analysis".
567:, or Wiener process, whose steps have finite variance. However, more generally, for natural stochastic processes, the precise relationship between volatility measures for different time periods is more complicated. Some use the Lévy stability exponent 844:
The risk parity weighted volatility of the three assets Gold, Treasury bonds and Nasdaq acting as proxy for the Marketportfolio seems to have a low point at 4% after turning upwards for the 8th time since 1974 at this reading in the summer of 2014.
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higher volatility stock, with the same expected return of 7% but with annual volatility of 20%, would indicate returns from approximately negative 33% to positive 47% most of the time (19 times out of 20, or 95%). These estimates assume a
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The average magnitude of the observations is merely an approximation of the standard deviation of the market index. Assuming that the market index daily changes are normally distributed with mean zero and standard
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It is common knowledge that many types of assets experience periods of high and low volatility. That is, during some periods, prices go up and down quickly, while during other times they barely move at all. In
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The formulas used above to convert returns or volatility measures from one time period to another assume a particular underlying model or process. These formulas are accurate extrapolations of a
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Much research has been devoted to modeling and forecasting the volatility of financial returns, and yet few theoretical models explain how volatility comes to exist in the first place.
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of a financial instrument for a specified period (for example 30 days or 90 days), based on historical prices over the specified period with the last observation the most recent price.
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Most typically, extreme movements do not appear 'out of nowhere'; they are presaged by larger movements than usual or by known uncertainty in specific future events. This is termed
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However importantly this does not capture (or in some cases may give excessive weight to) occasional large movements in market price which occur less frequently than once a year.
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Diebold, Francis X.; Hickman, Andrew; Inoue, Atsushi & Schuermannm, Til (1996) "Converting 1-Day Volatility to h-Day Volatility: Scaling by sqrt(h) is Worse than You Think"
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would have clean volatility caused by people buying and selling on a daily basis but dirty (or event vol) events like quarterly earnings or a possibly anti-trust announcement.
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which refers to the volatility of a financial instrument over a specified period starting at the current time and ending at a future date (normally the expiry date of an
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When cash flows from selling a security are needed at a specific future date to meet a known fixed liability, higher volatility means a greater chance of a shortfall;
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Volatility matters to investors for at least eight reasons, several of which are alternative statements of the same feature or are directly consequent on each other:
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ensemble returns instead of time series of returns. Another considers the regular sequence of directional-changes as the proxy for the instantaneous volatility.
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Derman, Emanuel (2011): Models.Behaving.Badly: Why Confusing Illusion With Reality Can Lead to Disaster, on Wall Street and in Life”, Ed. Free Press.
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shown. Note that VIX has virtually the same predictive power as past volatility, insofar as the shown correlation coefficients are nearly identical.
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Glosten, L. R. and P. R. Milgrom (1985): "Bid, Ask and Transaction Prices in a Specialist Market with Heterogeneously Informed Traders",
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Andersen, Torben G.; Bollerslev, Tim (1998). "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts".
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of a sequence of random variables, each of which is the return of the fund over some corresponding sequence of (equally sized) times.
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which refers to the volatility of a financial instrument over a specified period but with the last observation on a date in the past
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Higher volatility of returns after retirement may result in withdrawals having a larger permanent impact on the portfolio's value;
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Higher volatility of returns while saving for retirement results in a wider distribution of possible final portfolio values;
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equation assumes predictable constant volatility, this is not observed in real markets. Amongst more realistic models are
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Muller, Ulrich A.; Dacorogna, Michel; Dave, Rakhal D.; Olsen, Richard; Pictet, Olivier V.; von Weizsäcker, Jakob (1997).
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Price volatility presents opportunities to anyone with inside information to buy assets cheaply and sell when overpriced;
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works have agreed, but claim critics failed to correctly implement the more complicated models. Some practitioners and
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independent variables (with equal standard deviations) is √n times the standard deviation of the individual variables.
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Volatility does not measure the direction of price changes, merely their dispersion. This is because when calculating
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which refers to the implied volatility observed from historical prices of the financial instrument (normally options)
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looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option).
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Excerpt from Enhanced Call Overwriting, a report by Ryan Renicker and Devapriya Mallick at Lehman Brothers (2005).
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where volatility jumps to new levels with a predictable frequency, and the increasingly popular Heston model of
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Cumby, R.; Figlewski, S.; Hasbrouck, J. (1993). "Forecasting Volatility and Correlations with EGARCH models".
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papers "We Don't Quite Know What We are Talking About When We Talk About Volatility". In a similar note,
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There exist several known parametrisations of the implied volatility surface, Schonbucher, SVI and gSVI.
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Roll, R. (1984): "A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market",
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which refers to the implied volatility observed from current prices of the financial instrument
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Sarkissian, Jack (2016). "Express Measurement of Market Volatility Using Ergodicity Concept".
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Price volatility of a trading instrument can help to determine position sizing in a portfolio;
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which refers to the implied volatility observed from future prices of the financial instrument
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Babak Mahdavi Damghani & Andrew Kos (2013). "De-arbitraging with a weak smile". Wilmott.
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Research paper including excerpt from report entitled Identifying Rich and Cheap Volatility
1629:"Volatilities of different time resolutions -- Analyzing the dynamics of market components" 675:, they adjust their trading ranges, which in turn increases the band of price oscillation. 3591: 3580: 3287: 3222: 3106: 3045: 3040: 2975: 2950: 2885: 2859: 2839: 2798: 2793: 2788: 2773: 2768: 2656: 2590: 2582: 2470: 2357: 2244: 1808: 1708: 1495: 1463: 1345: 1340: 830:) may often be followed by prices going up even more, or going down by an unusual amount. 800: 1765: 716:
The wider the swings in an investment's price, the harder emotionally it is to not worry;
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Since observed price changes do not follow Gaussian distributions, others such as the
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Therefore, if the daily logarithmic returns of a stock have a standard deviation of
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Example based on Google daily return distribution using standard density function
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seem to completely ignore or dismiss volatility forecasting models. For example,
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Volatility thus mathematically represents a drag on the CAGR (formalized as the "
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For any fund that evolves randomly with time, volatility is defined as the
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CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) from December 1985 to May 2012 (daily closings)
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Option Volatility and Pricing: Advanced Trading Strategies and Techniques
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A short introduction to alternative mathematical concepts of volatility
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Jorion, P. (1995). "Predicting Volatility in Foreign Exchange Market".
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Bartram, Söhnke M.; Brown, Gregory W.; Stulz, Rene M. (August 2012).
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metaphors – analogies that describe one thing relative to another".
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Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices.
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after twice the time will not be twice the distance from zero.
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http://www.readcube.com/articles/10.1002/wilm.10201?locale=en
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of a trading price series over time, usually measured by the
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Petrov, Vladimir; Golub, Anton; Olsen, Richard (June 2019).
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Petrov, Vladimir; Golub, Anton; Olsen, Richard (June 2019).
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Graphical Comparison of Implied and Historical Volatility
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Degree of variation of a trading price series over time
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scaling relation is obtained, but some people believe
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are often used. These can capture attributes such as "
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Goldstein, Daniel and Taleb, Nassim, (28 March 2007)
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Pages displaying wikidata descriptions as a fallback
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is the standard deviation of an instrument's yearly
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Volatility estimation from predicted return density
863:policy announcements. For instance, a company like 767:; in reality stock price movements are found to be 622:{\displaystyle \sigma _{T}=T^{1/\alpha }\sigma .\,} 1208: 1128: 1055: 621: 552: 496: 458: 395: 336: 269: 667:Roll (1984) shows that volatility is affected by 152:For a financial instrument whose price follows a 1406:: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown ( 1223:is an empirical factor (typically five to ten). 410:= 252 trading days in any given year. Then, if 1319: – Possibility of something bad happening 927:Estimate of compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 291:in trading days, the annualized volatility is 3072: 2281: 2159: 1388:. Archived from the original on 30 March 2012 835:autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity 8: 888:constitute a 1% daily movement, up or down. 1227:Criticisms of volatility forecasting models 858:Volatility as it Relates to Options Trading 77:Volatility as described here refers to the 3348: 3257: 3180: 3079: 3065: 3057: 2288: 2274: 2266: 2166: 2152: 2144: 2135:: CS1 maint: location missing publisher ( 841:low resolution volatility and vice versa. 1968: 1913: 1749: 1739: 1611: 1601: 1501:CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list ( 1200: 1181: 1170: 1153: 1151: 1120: 1104: 1093: 1076: 1074: 1066:Taking only the first two terms one has: 1041: 1025: 1016: 1000: 991: 975: 943: 618: 602: 598: 585: 579: 530: 518: 512: 482: 474: 443: 431: 425: 380: 374: 361: 355: 324: 318: 305: 299: 257: 251: 238: 232: 1728:Journal of Risk and Financial Management 1590:Journal of Risk and Financial Management 1356: 2128: 1804: 1793: 1704: 1693: 1491: 1480: 1399: 819:with periods of one day and one week. 3416:Moving average convergence/divergence 417:= 0.01, the annualized volatility is 7: 2069:"Why Are U.S. Stocks More Volatile?" 822:Periods when prices fall quickly (a 1876:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04793.x 1174: 1171: 1163: 1160: 1157: 1154: 1097: 1094: 1086: 1083: 1080: 1077: 875:Implied volatility parametrisation 849:Alternative measures of volatility 571:to extrapolate natural processes: 497:{\displaystyle T={\tfrac {1}{12}}} 287:and the time period of returns is 25: 1337: – Mathematical finance term 871:numeric values to these numbers. 2544:Electronic communication network 2088:10.1111/j.1540-6261.2012.01749.x 1551:Journal of Banking & Finance 2005:Journal of Portfolio Management 1266:Journal of Portfolio Management 815:, price changes are seasonally 3521:Accumulation/distribution line 1455:Derman, E., Iraj Kani (1994). 1439:Journal of Financial Economics 963: 951: 734:Volatility affects pricing of 650:Lévy alpha-stable distribution 194:Thus, "annualized" volatility 1: 2538:Multilateral trading facility 2115:(Second ed.). New York. 1956:International Economic Review 1645:10.1016/S0927-5398(97)00007-8 909:magnitude of the observations 697:combining volatility and the 469:The monthly volatility (i.e. 134:historical implied volatility 3597:CBOE Market Volatility Index 3238:Triple top and triple bottom 3203:Double top and double bottom 2961:Returns-based style analysis 2757:Post-modern portfolio theory 2663:Security characteristic line 1633:Journal of Empirical Finance 1563:10.1016/0378-4266(90)90009-Q 1219:for a rough estimate, where 907:, the expected value of the 406:A common assumption is that 92:actual historical volatility 2715:Efficient-market hypothesis 2619:Capital asset pricing model 2556:Straight-through processing 2111:Natenberg, Sheldon (2015). 1263:famously titled one of his 883:Crude volatility estimation 747:Volatility versus direction 738:, being a parameter of the 208:The generalized volatility 3754: 3405:Know sure thing oscillator 3399:Detrended price oscillator 2532:Alternative Trading System 224:in years is expressed as: 140:current implied volatility 3387:Average directional index 682:determined the effect of 146:future implied volatility 86:actual current volatility 2596:Arbitrage pricing theory 1325: – Volatility index 1310: – French economist 1245:correlation coefficients 708:Volatility for investors 115:actual future volatility 3480:Relative strength index 3393:Commodity channel index 2875:Initial public offering 2736:Modern portfolio theory 2631:Dividend discount model 2514:List of stock exchanges 1839:10.3905/jod.1993.407877 1766:"Cleaning Implied Vols" 813:foreign exchange market 183:Mathematical definition 3117:Elliott wave principle 2763:Random walk hypothesis 1902:Journal of Forecasting 1827:Journal of Derivatives 1803:Cite journal requires 1703:Cite journal requires 1490:Cite journal requires 1462:. Risk. Archived from 1251: 1210: 1130: 1057: 623: 554: 498: 460: 397: 338: 271: 73:Volatility terminology 35: 3538:Negative volume index 3486:Stochastic oscillator 3363:Fibonacci retracement 2901:Market capitalization 2710:Dollar cost averaging 2214:Jump-diffusion models 2209:Stochastic volatility 2199:Volatility clustering 1234: 1211: 1131: 1058: 805:stochastic volatility 669:market microstructure 624: 555: 499: 461: 398: 339: 272: 81:, more specifically: 46:(usually denoted by " 33: 18:Historical volatility 3728:Mathematical finance 3690:Ralph Nelson Elliott 3634:McClellan oscillator 3622:Advance–decline line 3303:Three white soldiers 2721:Fundamental analysis 2705:Contrarian investing 2668:Security market line 2573:Liquidity aggregator 2550:Direct market access 2461:Quantitative analyst 2235:Volatility arbitrage 2182:Modelling volatility 1741:10.3390/jrfm12020054 1672:10.2139/ssrn.2812353 1603:10.3390/jrfm12020054 1150: 1073: 942: 775:Volatility over time 693:, and called it the 578: 511: 473: 424: 354: 298: 231: 3497:Ultimate oscillator 3491:True strength index 3158:Open-high-low-close 2966:Reverse stock split 2911:Market manipulation 2835:Dual-listed company 2695:Algorithmic trading 2625:Capital market line 2427:Inter-dealer broker 1365:"Levy distribution" 1296:Financial economics 1243:, resulting in the 765:normal distribution 740:Black–Scholes model 678:In September 2019, 636: = 2 the 203:logarithmic returns 99:realized volatility 97:near synonymous is 60:logarithmic returns 52:degree of variation 3733:Technical analysis 3603:Standard deviation 3575:Average true range 3556:Volume–price trend 3411:Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō 3218:Head and shoulders 3088:Technical analysis 3006:Stock market index 2845:Efficient frontier 2784:Technical analysis 2742:Momentum investing 2564:(private exchange) 2454:Proprietary trader 2396:Shares outstanding 2386:Authorised capital 2228:Trading volatility 2189:Implied volatility 2076:Journal of Finance 1863:Journal of Finance 1422:Journal of Finance 1257:portfolio managers 1252: 1241:linear regressions 1206: 1191: 1126: 1114: 1053: 1035: 1010: 985: 753:standard deviation 619: 550: 541: 494: 492: 456: 393: 334: 267: 189:standard deviation 127:implied volatility 67:Implied volatility 56:standard deviation 36: 3713: 3712: 3663: 3662: 3544:On-balance volume 3439:Smart money index 3338: 3337: 3311: 3310: 3298:Three black crows 3054: 3053: 2855:Flight-to-quality 2607:Buffett indicator 2297:Financial markets 2263: 2262: 1190: 1113: 1034: 1009: 984: 673:adverse selection 660:Volatility origin 646:Benoît Mandelbrot 542: 540: 521: 491: 448: 434: 388: 377: 364: 329: 321: 308: 262: 254: 241: 173:Lévy distribution 107:realized variance 79:actual volatility 16:(Redirected from 3745: 3587:Donchian channel 3526:Ease of movement 3474:Money flow index 3455:Vortex indicator 3349: 3317:Point and figure 3258: 3208:Flag and pennant 3181: 3163:Point and figure 3081: 3074: 3067: 3058: 2971:Share repurchase 2683:Trading theories 2568:Crossing network 2526:Over-the-counter 2363:Restricted stock 2319:Secondary market 2290: 2283: 2276: 2267: 2204:Local volatility 2194:Volatility smile 2168: 2161: 2154: 2145: 2140: 2134: 2126: 2107: 2082:(4): 1329–1370. 2073: 2020: 2017: 2011: 1997: 1991: 1990: 1972: 1950: 1944: 1943: 1917: 1894: 1888: 1887: 1857: 1851: 1850: 1822: 1816: 1812: 1806: 1801: 1799: 1791: 1787: 1781: 1780: 1778: 1776: 1762: 1756: 1755: 1753: 1743: 1719: 1713: 1712: 1706: 1701: 1699: 1691: 1663: 1657: 1656: 1639:(2–3): 213–239. 1624: 1618: 1617: 1615: 1605: 1581: 1575: 1574: 1557:(6): 1189–1208. 1545: 1539: 1538: 1531: 1525: 1524: 1513: 1507: 1506: 1499: 1493: 1488: 1486: 1478: 1476: 1474: 1468: 1461: 1452: 1446: 1434: 1428: 1418: 1412: 1411: 1405: 1397: 1395: 1393: 1387: 1379: 1373: 1372: 1361: 1329:Volatility smile 1313: 1215: 1213: 1212: 1207: 1205: 1204: 1192: 1183: 1177: 1166: 1135: 1133: 1132: 1127: 1125: 1124: 1115: 1106: 1100: 1089: 1062: 1060: 1059: 1054: 1046: 1045: 1036: 1027: 1021: 1020: 1011: 1002: 996: 995: 986: 977: 914: 797:local volatility 628: 626: 625: 620: 611: 610: 606: 590: 589: 559: 557: 556: 551: 543: 533: 531: 523: 522: 519: 503: 501: 500: 495: 493: 484: 465: 463: 462: 457: 449: 444: 436: 435: 432: 402: 400: 399: 394: 389: 381: 379: 378: 375: 366: 365: 362: 343: 341: 340: 335: 330: 325: 323: 322: 319: 310: 309: 306: 276: 274: 273: 268: 263: 258: 256: 255: 252: 243: 242: 239: 21: 3753: 3752: 3748: 3747: 3746: 3744: 3743: 3742: 3718: 3717: 3714: 3709: 3659: 3638: 3608: 3592:Keltner channel 3581:Bollinger Bands 3561: 3507: 3460: 3373: 3354: 3334: 3307: 3288:Hikkake pattern 3274: 3247: 3223:Island reversal 3172: 3126: 3107:Dead cat bounce 3090: 3085: 3055: 3050: 3041:Voting interest 2951:Public offering 2886:Mandatory offer 2860:Government bond 2840:DuPont analysis 2803: 2799:Value investing 2794:Value averaging 2789:Trend following 2774:Style investing 2769:Sector rotation 2684: 2678: 2657:Net asset value 2583:Stock valuation 2577: 2497: 2405: 2372: 2358:Preferred stock 2333: 2299: 2294: 2264: 2259: 2245:Volatility swap 2223: 2177: 2172: 2127: 2123: 2110: 2071: 2066: 2063: 2061:Further reading 2028: 2023: 2018: 2014: 1998: 1994: 1979:10.2307/2527343 1952: 1951: 1947: 1924:10.1002/for.841 1915:10.1.1.595.9113 1896: 1895: 1891: 1859: 1858: 1854: 1824: 1823: 1819: 1802: 1792: 1789: 1788: 1784: 1774: 1772: 1764: 1763: 1759: 1721: 1720: 1716: 1702: 1692: 1665: 1664: 1660: 1626: 1625: 1621: 1583: 1582: 1578: 1547: 1546: 1542: 1533: 1532: 1528: 1521:wilmottwiki.com 1515: 1514: 1510: 1500: 1489: 1479: 1472: 1470: 1469:on 10 July 2011 1466: 1459: 1454: 1453: 1449: 1435: 1431: 1419: 1415: 1398: 1391: 1389: 1385: 1381: 1380: 1376: 1369:wilmottwiki.com 1363: 1362: 1358: 1354: 1346:Volatility beta 1341:Volatility risk 1311: 1280: 1235:Performance of 1229: 1196: 1148: 1147: 1116: 1071: 1070: 1037: 1012: 987: 940: 939: 929: 912: 903:deviation  885: 877: 860: 851: 817:heteroskedastic 801:Poisson process 777: 749: 710: 662: 594: 581: 576: 575: 514: 509: 508: 471: 470: 427: 422: 421: 416: 370: 357: 352: 351: 314: 301: 296: 295: 286: 247: 234: 229: 228: 216: 200: 185: 125:Now turning to 75: 28: 23: 22: 15: 12: 11: 5: 3751: 3749: 3741: 3740: 3735: 3730: 3720: 3719: 3711: 3710: 3708: 3707: 3702: 3697: 3692: 3687: 3682: 3677: 3675:John Bollinger 3671: 3669: 3665: 3664: 3661: 3660: 3658: 3657: 3652: 3646: 3644: 3640: 3639: 3637: 3636: 3631: 3625: 3618: 3616: 3610: 3609: 3607: 3606: 3600: 3594: 3589: 3584: 3578: 3571: 3569: 3563: 3562: 3560: 3559: 3553: 3550:Put/call ratio 3547: 3541: 3535: 3529: 3523: 3517: 3515: 3509: 3508: 3506: 3505: 3499: 3494: 3488: 3483: 3477: 3470: 3468: 3462: 3461: 3459: 3458: 3452: 3447: 3442: 3436: 3430: 3427:Moving average 3424: 3419: 3413: 3408: 3402: 3396: 3390: 3383: 3381: 3375: 3374: 3372: 3371: 3365: 3359: 3357: 3346: 3340: 3339: 3336: 3335: 3333: 3332: 3327: 3321: 3319: 3313: 3312: 3309: 3308: 3306: 3305: 3300: 3295: 3290: 3284: 3282: 3276: 3275: 3273: 3272: 3266: 3264: 3255: 3249: 3248: 3246: 3245: 3240: 3235: 3230: 3228:Price channels 3225: 3220: 3215: 3210: 3205: 3200: 3198:Cup and handle 3195: 3193:Broadening top 3189: 3187: 3178: 3174: 3173: 3171: 3170: 3165: 3160: 3155: 3150: 3145: 3140: 3134: 3132: 3128: 3127: 3125: 3124: 3119: 3114: 3109: 3104: 3098: 3096: 3092: 3091: 3086: 3084: 3083: 3076: 3069: 3061: 3052: 3051: 3049: 3048: 3043: 3038: 3033: 3028: 3023: 3018: 3013: 3008: 3003: 3001:Stock exchange 2998: 2996:Stock dilution 2993: 2988: 2983: 2978: 2973: 2968: 2963: 2958: 2953: 2948: 2943: 2938: 2933: 2928: 2923: 2921:Mean reversion 2918: 2913: 2908: 2903: 2898: 2896:Market anomaly 2893: 2888: 2883: 2878: 2872: 2867: 2862: 2857: 2852: 2847: 2842: 2837: 2832: 2827: 2822: 2817: 2815:Bid–ask spread 2811: 2809: 2805: 2804: 2802: 2801: 2796: 2791: 2786: 2781: 2776: 2771: 2766: 2760: 2754: 2749: 2744: 2739: 2733: 2728: 2723: 2718: 2712: 2707: 2702: 2697: 2691: 2689: 2680: 2679: 2677: 2676: 2671: 2665: 2660: 2654: 2649: 2644: 2642:Earnings yield 2639: 2637:Dividend yield 2634: 2628: 2622: 2616: 2610: 2604: 2599: 2593: 2587: 2585: 2579: 2578: 2576: 2575: 2570: 2565: 2559: 2553: 2547: 2541: 2535: 2529: 2528:(off-exchange) 2523: 2522: 2521: 2516: 2505: 2503: 2502:Trading venues 2499: 2498: 2496: 2495: 2490: 2489: 2488: 2478: 2473: 2468: 2463: 2458: 2457: 2456: 2451: 2441: 2436: 2431: 2430: 2429: 2424: 2413: 2411: 2407: 2406: 2404: 2403: 2401:Treasury stock 2398: 2393: 2388: 2382: 2380: 2374: 2373: 2371: 2370: 2368:Tracking stock 2365: 2360: 2355: 2350: 2344: 2342: 2335: 2334: 2332: 2331: 2326: 2321: 2316: 2314:Primary market 2310: 2308: 2301: 2300: 2295: 2293: 2292: 2285: 2278: 2270: 2261: 2260: 2258: 2257: 2252: 2247: 2242: 2237: 2231: 2229: 2225: 2224: 2222: 2221: 2219:ARCH and GARCH 2216: 2211: 2206: 2201: 2196: 2191: 2185: 2183: 2179: 2178: 2173: 2171: 2170: 2163: 2156: 2148: 2142: 2141: 2122:978-0071818773 2121: 2108: 2062: 2059: 2058: 2057: 2051: 2045: 2040: 2035: 2027: 2026:External links 2024: 2022: 2021: 2012: 1992: 1963:(4): 885–905. 1945: 1889: 1870:(2): 507–528. 1852: 1817: 1805:|journal= 1782: 1757: 1714: 1705:|journal= 1658: 1619: 1576: 1540: 1526: 1508: 1492:|journal= 1447: 1429: 1427:(4), 1127–1139 1413: 1374: 1355: 1353: 1350: 1349: 1348: 1343: 1338: 1335:Volatility tax 1332: 1326: 1320: 1314: 1308:Jules Regnault 1305: 1299: 1293: 1287: 1284:Beta (finance) 1279: 1276: 1271:Emanuel Derman 1228: 1225: 1217: 1216: 1203: 1199: 1195: 1189: 1186: 1180: 1176: 1173: 1169: 1165: 1162: 1159: 1156: 1141:volatility tax 1137: 1136: 1123: 1119: 1112: 1109: 1103: 1099: 1096: 1092: 1088: 1085: 1082: 1079: 1064: 1063: 1052: 1049: 1044: 1040: 1033: 1030: 1024: 1019: 1015: 1008: 1005: 999: 994: 990: 983: 980: 974: 971: 968: 965: 962: 959: 956: 953: 950: 947: 928: 925: 884: 881: 876: 873: 859: 856: 850: 847: 785:Emanuel Derman 776: 773: 771:(fat-tailed). 748: 745: 744: 743: 732: 729: 726: 723: 720: 717: 709: 706: 680:JPMorgan Chase 661: 658: 638:Wiener process 630: 629: 617: 614: 609: 605: 601: 597: 593: 588: 584: 561: 560: 549: 546: 539: 536: 529: 526: 517: 504:of a year) is 490: 487: 481: 478: 467: 466: 455: 452: 447: 442: 439: 430: 414: 404: 403: 392: 387: 384: 373: 369: 360: 345: 344: 333: 328: 317: 313: 304: 284: 278: 277: 266: 261: 250: 246: 237: 212: 198: 184: 181: 161:Wiener process 150: 149: 143: 137: 123: 122: 112: 111: 110: 89: 74: 71: 26: 24: 14: 13: 10: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 3750: 3739: 3736: 3734: 3731: 3729: 3726: 3725: 3723: 3716: 3706: 3703: 3701: 3698: 3696: 3693: 3691: 3688: 3686: 3683: 3681: 3678: 3676: 3673: 3672: 3670: 3666: 3656: 3653: 3651: 3650:Coppock curve 3648: 3647: 3645: 3641: 3635: 3632: 3629: 3626: 3623: 3620: 3619: 3617: 3615: 3611: 3604: 3601: 3598: 3595: 3593: 3590: 3588: 3585: 3582: 3579: 3576: 3573: 3572: 3570: 3568: 3564: 3557: 3554: 3551: 3548: 3545: 3542: 3539: 3536: 3533: 3530: 3527: 3524: 3522: 3519: 3518: 3516: 3514: 3510: 3503: 3500: 3498: 3495: 3492: 3489: 3487: 3484: 3481: 3478: 3475: 3472: 3471: 3469: 3467: 3463: 3456: 3453: 3451: 3448: 3446: 3443: 3440: 3437: 3434: 3433:Parabolic SAR 3431: 3428: 3425: 3423: 3420: 3417: 3414: 3412: 3409: 3406: 3403: 3400: 3397: 3394: 3391: 3388: 3385: 3384: 3382: 3380: 3376: 3369: 3366: 3364: 3361: 3360: 3358: 3356: 3353:Support & 3350: 3347: 3345: 3341: 3331: 3328: 3326: 3323: 3322: 3320: 3318: 3314: 3304: 3301: 3299: 3296: 3294: 3291: 3289: 3286: 3285: 3283: 3281: 3277: 3271: 3268: 3267: 3265: 3263: 3259: 3256: 3254: 3250: 3244: 3243:Wedge pattern 3241: 3239: 3236: 3234: 3231: 3229: 3226: 3224: 3221: 3219: 3216: 3214: 3211: 3209: 3206: 3204: 3201: 3199: 3196: 3194: 3191: 3190: 3188: 3186: 3182: 3179: 3175: 3169: 3166: 3164: 3161: 3159: 3156: 3154: 3151: 3149: 3146: 3144: 3141: 3139: 3136: 3135: 3133: 3129: 3123: 3120: 3118: 3115: 3113: 3110: 3108: 3105: 3103: 3100: 3099: 3097: 3093: 3089: 3082: 3077: 3075: 3070: 3068: 3063: 3062: 3059: 3047: 3044: 3042: 3039: 3037: 3034: 3032: 3029: 3027: 3024: 3022: 3019: 3017: 3014: 3012: 3009: 3007: 3004: 3002: 2999: 2997: 2994: 2992: 2989: 2987: 2984: 2982: 2979: 2977: 2976:Short selling 2974: 2972: 2969: 2967: 2964: 2962: 2959: 2957: 2954: 2952: 2949: 2947: 2944: 2942: 2939: 2937: 2934: 2932: 2929: 2927: 2924: 2922: 2919: 2917: 2914: 2912: 2909: 2907: 2904: 2902: 2899: 2897: 2894: 2892: 2889: 2887: 2884: 2882: 2879: 2876: 2873: 2871: 2868: 2866: 2865:Greenspan put 2863: 2861: 2858: 2856: 2853: 2851: 2850:Financial law 2848: 2846: 2843: 2841: 2838: 2836: 2833: 2831: 2828: 2826: 2825:Cross listing 2823: 2821: 2818: 2816: 2813: 2812: 2810: 2808:Related terms 2806: 2800: 2797: 2795: 2792: 2790: 2787: 2785: 2782: 2780: 2779:Swing trading 2777: 2775: 2772: 2770: 2767: 2764: 2761: 2758: 2755: 2753: 2750: 2748: 2747:Mosaic theory 2745: 2743: 2740: 2737: 2734: 2732: 2731:Market timing 2729: 2727: 2724: 2722: 2719: 2716: 2713: 2711: 2708: 2706: 2703: 2701: 2698: 2696: 2693: 2692: 2690: 2688: 2681: 2675: 2672: 2669: 2666: 2664: 2661: 2658: 2655: 2653: 2650: 2648: 2645: 2643: 2640: 2638: 2635: 2632: 2629: 2626: 2623: 2620: 2617: 2614: 2611: 2608: 2605: 2603: 2600: 2597: 2594: 2592: 2589: 2588: 2586: 2584: 2580: 2574: 2571: 2569: 2566: 2563: 2560: 2557: 2554: 2551: 2548: 2545: 2542: 2539: 2536: 2533: 2530: 2527: 2524: 2520: 2519:Trading hours 2517: 2515: 2512: 2511: 2510: 2507: 2506: 2504: 2500: 2494: 2491: 2487: 2484: 2483: 2482: 2479: 2477: 2474: 2472: 2469: 2467: 2464: 2462: 2459: 2455: 2452: 2450: 2447: 2446: 2445: 2442: 2440: 2437: 2435: 2434:Broker-dealer 2432: 2428: 2425: 2423: 2420: 2419: 2418: 2415: 2414: 2412: 2408: 2402: 2399: 2397: 2394: 2392: 2391:Issued shares 2389: 2387: 2384: 2383: 2381: 2379: 2378:Share capital 2375: 2369: 2366: 2364: 2361: 2359: 2356: 2354: 2351: 2349: 2346: 2345: 2343: 2341: 2336: 2330: 2329:Fourth market 2327: 2325: 2322: 2320: 2317: 2315: 2312: 2311: 2309: 2307: 2302: 2298: 2291: 2286: 2284: 2279: 2277: 2272: 2271: 2268: 2256: 2253: 2251: 2248: 2246: 2243: 2241: 2238: 2236: 2233: 2232: 2230: 2226: 2220: 2217: 2215: 2212: 2210: 2207: 2205: 2202: 2200: 2197: 2195: 2192: 2190: 2187: 2186: 2184: 2180: 2176: 2169: 2164: 2162: 2157: 2155: 2150: 2149: 2146: 2138: 2132: 2124: 2118: 2114: 2109: 2105: 2101: 2097: 2093: 2089: 2085: 2081: 2077: 2070: 2065: 2064: 2060: 2055: 2052: 2049: 2046: 2044: 2041: 2039: 2036: 2033: 2030: 2029: 2025: 2016: 2013: 2009: 2006: 2002: 1996: 1993: 1988: 1984: 1980: 1976: 1971: 1970:10.1.1.28.454 1966: 1962: 1958: 1957: 1949: 1946: 1941: 1937: 1933: 1929: 1925: 1921: 1916: 1911: 1907: 1903: 1899: 1898:Brooks, Chris 1893: 1890: 1885: 1881: 1877: 1873: 1869: 1865: 1864: 1856: 1853: 1848: 1844: 1840: 1836: 1832: 1828: 1821: 1818: 1815: 1810: 1797: 1786: 1783: 1771: 1770:Moontowermeta 1767: 1761: 1758: 1752: 1747: 1742: 1737: 1733: 1729: 1725: 1718: 1715: 1710: 1697: 1689: 1685: 1681: 1677: 1673: 1669: 1662: 1659: 1654: 1650: 1646: 1642: 1638: 1634: 1630: 1623: 1620: 1614: 1609: 1604: 1599: 1595: 1591: 1587: 1580: 1577: 1572: 1568: 1564: 1560: 1556: 1552: 1544: 1541: 1536: 1530: 1527: 1522: 1518: 1512: 1509: 1504: 1497: 1484: 1465: 1458: 1451: 1448: 1444: 1441: 1440: 1433: 1430: 1426: 1423: 1417: 1414: 1409: 1403: 1384: 1378: 1375: 1370: 1366: 1360: 1357: 1351: 1347: 1344: 1342: 1339: 1336: 1333: 1330: 1327: 1324: 1321: 1318: 1315: 1309: 1306: 1303: 1300: 1297: 1294: 1291: 1288: 1285: 1282: 1281: 1277: 1275: 1272: 1268: 1267: 1262: 1258: 1249: 1246: 1242: 1238: 1233: 1226: 1224: 1222: 1201: 1197: 1193: 1187: 1184: 1178: 1167: 1146: 1145: 1144: 1142: 1121: 1117: 1110: 1107: 1101: 1090: 1069: 1068: 1067: 1050: 1047: 1042: 1038: 1031: 1028: 1022: 1017: 1013: 1006: 1003: 997: 992: 988: 981: 978: 972: 969: 966: 960: 957: 954: 948: 945: 938: 937: 936: 934: 933:Taylor series 931:Consider the 926: 924: 922: 918: 910: 906: 900: 897: 895: 889: 882: 880: 874: 872: 868: 866: 857: 855: 848: 846: 842: 838: 836: 831: 829: 825: 820: 818: 814: 808: 806: 802: 798: 794: 790: 786: 782: 781:Black-Scholes 779:Although the 774: 772: 770: 769:leptokurtotic 766: 760: 758: 754: 746: 741: 737: 733: 730: 727: 724: 721: 718: 715: 714: 713: 707: 705: 703: 700: 696: 695:Volfefe index 692: 688: 685: 681: 676: 674: 670: 665: 659: 657: 655: 651: 647: 643: 639: 635: 615: 612: 607: 603: 599: 595: 591: 586: 582: 574: 573: 572: 570: 566: 547: 544: 537: 534: 527: 524: 515: 507: 506: 505: 488: 485: 479: 476: 453: 450: 445: 440: 437: 428: 420: 419: 418: 413: 409: 390: 385: 382: 371: 367: 358: 350: 349: 348: 331: 326: 315: 311: 302: 294: 293: 292: 290: 283: 264: 259: 248: 244: 235: 227: 226: 225: 223: 220: 215: 211: 206: 204: 197: 192: 190: 182: 180: 178: 174: 169: 166: 162: 158: 155: 147: 144: 141: 138: 135: 132: 131: 130: 128: 120: 116: 113: 108: 104: 100: 96: 95: 93: 90: 87: 84: 83: 82: 80: 72: 70: 68: 63: 61: 57: 53: 49: 45: 41: 32: 19: 3715: 3705:Mark Hulbert 3566: 3293:Morning star 3122:Market trend 3035: 3026:Tender offer 2946:Public float 2916:Market trend 2906:Market depth 2726:Growth stock 2700:Buy and hold 2609:(Cap-to-GDP) 2449:Floor trader 2439:Market maker 2422:Floor broker 2410:Participants 2353:Golden share 2348:Common stock 2324:Third market 2174: 2112: 2079: 2075: 2015: 2007: 2004: 1995: 1960: 1954: 1948: 1905: 1901: 1892: 1867: 1861: 1855: 1833:(2): 51–63. 1830: 1826: 1820: 1796:cite journal 1785: 1773:. Retrieved 1769: 1760: 1751:10419/239003 1731: 1727: 1717: 1696:cite journal 1661: 1636: 1632: 1622: 1613:10419/239003 1593: 1589: 1579: 1554: 1550: 1543: 1529: 1520: 1517:"Volatility" 1511: 1483:cite journal 1471:. Retrieved 1464:the original 1450: 1442: 1437: 1432: 1424: 1421: 1416: 1390:. Retrieved 1377: 1368: 1359: 1264: 1261:Nassim Taleb 1253: 1247: 1220: 1218: 1138: 1065: 930: 920: 919:= 0.798 916: 904: 901: 898: 893: 890: 886: 878: 869: 861: 852: 843: 839: 832: 821: 809: 793:Bruno Dupire 778: 761: 750: 711: 687:Donald Trump 684:US President 677: 666: 663: 653: 641: 633: 631: 568: 562: 468: 411: 407: 405: 346: 288: 281: 279: 221: 219:time horizon 213: 209: 207: 195: 193: 186: 170: 151: 145: 139: 133: 124: 114: 98: 91: 85: 78: 76: 64: 43: 37: 3700:John Murphy 3695:Bob Farrell 3685:Charles Dow 3655:Ulcer index 3532:Force index 3502:Williams %R 3368:Pivot point 3253:Candlestick 3138:Candlestick 3031:Uptick rule 3011:Stock split 2991:Squeeze-out 2986:Speculation 2931:Open outcry 2820:Block trade 2752:Pairs trade 1908:(1): 1–22. 1445:(1), 71–100 565:random walk 165:probability 157:random walk 129:, we have: 103:square root 3722:Categories 3628:Arms index 3567:Volatility 3445:Trend line 3422:Mass index 3355:resistance 3344:Indicators 3168:Line break 3112:Dow theory 3036:Volatility 3016:Stock swap 2936:Order book 2687:strategies 2613:Book value 2481:Arbitrager 2476:Speculator 2175:Volatility 2010:(4), 2007. 1352:References 1290:Dispersion 50:") is the 44:volatility 3680:Ned Davis 3330:Bear trap 3325:Bull trap 2652:Fed model 2647:EV/EBITDA 2562:Dark pool 2493:Regulator 2338:Types of 2304:Types of 2131:cite book 1965:CiteSeerX 1940:154615850 1932:1099-131X 1910:CiteSeerX 1847:154028452 1734:(2): 54. 1680:168496910 1653:0927-5398 1596:(2): 54. 1571:0378-4266 1392:18 August 1198:σ 1179:− 1168:≈ 1118:σ 1102:− 1091:≈ 1051:⋯ 1023:− 973:− 949:⁡ 865:Microsoft 789:Iraj Kani 613:σ 608:α 583:σ 516:σ 429:σ 372:σ 359:σ 316:σ 303:σ 249:σ 236:σ 177:fat tails 3738:Quantity 3668:Analysts 3466:Momentum 3389:(A.D.X.) 3233:Triangle 3177:Patterns 3102:Breakout 3095:Concepts 2981:Slippage 2941:Position 2926:Momentum 2830:Dividend 2509:Exchange 2466:Investor 2240:Straddle 2096:18587238 1402:cite web 1278:See also 791:'s and 757:variance 433:annually 307:annually 253:annually 199:annually 154:Gaussian 3614:Breadth 3280:Complex 2870:Haircut 2674:T-model 2486:Scalper 2306:markets 2104:2257549 2034:, video 1987:2527343 1884:2329417 1775:26 June 1688:2812353 911:is √(2/ 736:options 699:covfefe 548:0.0458. 520:monthly 454:0.1587. 105:of the 40:finance 3630:(TRIN) 3513:Volume 3418:(MACD) 3262:Simple 3131:Charts 2891:Margin 2759:(PMPT) 2621:(CAPM) 2471:Hedger 2444:Trader 2417:Broker 2340:stocks 2119:  2102:  2094:  1985:  1967:  1938:  1930:  1912:  1882:  1845:  1686:  1678:  1651:  1569:  1473:1 June 828:bubble 691:tweets 119:option 101:, the 3643:Other 3624:(ADL) 3599:(VIX) 3577:(ATR) 3558:(VPT) 3552:(PCR) 3546:(OBV) 3540:(NVI) 3528:(EMV) 3493:(TSI) 3482:(RSI) 3476:(MFI) 3441:(SMI) 3435:(SAR) 3407:(KST) 3401:(DPO) 3395:(CCI) 3379:Trend 3185:Chart 3143:Renko 3046:Yield 3021:Trade 2956:Rally 2877:(IPO) 2765:(RMH) 2738:(MPT) 2717:(EMH) 2670:(SML) 2659:(NAV) 2633:(DDM) 2627:(CML) 2598:(APT) 2591:Alpha 2558:(STP) 2552:(DMA) 2546:(ECN) 2540:(MTF) 2534:(ATS) 2092:S2CID 2072:(PDF) 1983:JSTOR 1936:S2CID 1880:JSTOR 1843:S2CID 1676:S2CID 1467:(PDF) 1460:(PDF) 1386:(PDF) 824:crash 652:with 415:daily 376:daily 320:daily 285:daily 159:, or 3583:(BB) 3534:(FI) 3504:(%R) 3457:(VI) 3450:Trix 3429:(MA) 3370:(PP) 3270:Doji 3153:Line 3148:Kagi 2881:Long 2685:and 2615:(BV) 2602:Beta 2137:link 2117:ISBN 2100:SSRN 1928:ISSN 1809:help 1777:2024 1709:help 1684:SSRN 1649:ISSN 1567:ISSN 1503:link 1496:help 1475:2007 1408:link 1394:2011 1317:Risk 787:and 755:(or 702:meme 528:0.01 441:0.01 217:for 3605:(σ) 3213:Gap 2255:VIX 2250:IVX 2084:doi 1975:doi 1920:doi 1872:doi 1835:doi 1746:hdl 1736:doi 1668:doi 1641:doi 1608:hdl 1598:doi 1559:doi 1323:VIX 1302:IVX 1237:VIX 946:log 892:of 795:'s 689:'s 632:If 535:252 446:252 347:so 58:of 38:In 3724:: 2133:}} 2129:{{ 2098:. 2090:. 2080:67 2078:. 2074:. 2008:33 2003:. 1981:. 1973:. 1961:39 1959:. 1934:. 1926:. 1918:. 1906:22 1904:. 1878:. 1868:50 1866:. 1841:. 1829:. 1800:: 1798:}} 1794:{{ 1768:. 1744:. 1732:12 1730:. 1726:. 1700:: 1698:}} 1694:{{ 1682:. 1674:. 1647:. 1635:. 1631:. 1606:. 1594:12 1592:. 1588:. 1565:. 1555:14 1553:. 1519:. 1487:: 1485:}} 1481:{{ 1443:14 1425:39 1404:}} 1400:{{ 1367:. 935:: 807:. 799:, 704:. 538:12 489:12 205:. 62:. 42:, 3080:e 3073:t 3066:v 2289:e 2282:t 2275:v 2167:e 2160:t 2153:v 2139:) 2125:. 2106:. 2086:: 1989:. 1977:: 1942:. 1922:: 1886:. 1874:: 1849:. 1837:: 1831:1 1811:) 1807:( 1779:. 1754:. 1748:: 1738:: 1711:) 1707:( 1690:. 1670:: 1655:. 1643:: 1637:4 1616:. 1610:: 1600:: 1573:. 1561:: 1537:. 1523:. 1505:) 1498:) 1494:( 1477:. 1410:) 1396:. 1371:. 1248:r 1221:k 1202:2 1194:k 1188:2 1185:1 1175:R 1172:A 1164:R 1161:G 1158:A 1155:C 1122:2 1111:2 1108:1 1098:R 1095:A 1087:R 1084:G 1081:A 1078:C 1048:+ 1043:4 1039:y 1032:4 1029:1 1018:3 1014:y 1007:3 1004:1 998:+ 993:2 989:y 982:2 979:1 970:y 967:= 964:) 961:y 958:+ 955:1 952:( 921:σ 917:σ 915:) 913:π 905:σ 894:n 742:. 654:α 642:α 634:α 616:. 604:/ 600:1 596:T 592:= 587:T 569:α 545:= 525:= 486:1 480:= 477:T 451:= 438:= 412:σ 408:P 391:. 386:T 383:P 368:= 363:T 332:. 327:P 312:= 289:P 282:σ 265:. 260:T 245:= 240:T 222:T 214:T 210:σ 196:σ 121:) 48:σ 20:)

Index

Historical volatility

finance
σ
degree of variation
standard deviation
logarithmic returns
Implied volatility
square root
realized variance
option
implied volatility
Gaussian
random walk
Wiener process
probability
Lévy distribution
fat tails
standard deviation
logarithmic returns
time horizon
random walk
Wiener process
Benoît Mandelbrot
Lévy alpha-stable distribution
market microstructure
adverse selection
JPMorgan Chase
US President
Donald Trump

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