Knowledge (XXG)

Housing bubble

Source 📝

63:
problematic. This is primarily because the concept "fundamentals" is vague, but also because these type of nominal definitions typically do not refer to a bubble episode as a whole—with both an increase and a decrease of the price. Lind claims that the solution is to define a bubble by focusing only on the specific development of prices and not on why prices have developed in a certain way. The general definition of a bubble would then simply be: "There is a bubble if the (real) price of an asset first increases dramatically over a period of several months or years and then almost immediately falls dramatically." (Lind 2009, p. 80)
96:
services (affordability). Symmetrically, when house prices are low, households may afford a higher level of housing services. Price income ratio, price wage ratio, price household income ratio are examples of this method. There also exist a set of different affordability measures and indexes that looks at the development in interest payments to income or the cost of the mortgage to income. In addition to using house price equilibrium based on economic measures, there are also possible to use statistical techniques to identifying the long-term price trend, for example HP-filter.
92:
Gyourko (2005) point out that the housing market is characterized by a kinked supply curve that is highly elastic when prices are at or above construction costs. Otherwise, the supply curve is highly inelastic. Housing can be built rather quickly, but since housing is a durable good, old housing does not disappear quickly. Thus, house prices in slow or negative demand growth markets are capped by construction costs. Price construction cost ratio and price building cost ratio are methods that is falls in under this method.
2131: 39:
dramatically. Housing bubbles tend to be among the asset bubbles with the largest effect on the real economy because they are credit-fueled,,and a large number of households participate and not just investors, and because the wealth effect from housing tends to be larger than for other types of financial assets.
1995:
The table is from Oust and Hrafnkelsson (2017) and has been constructed using their bubble definition. The dataset consists of quarterly real prices for 20 OECD countries from 1970–2015. Duration is the number of quarters since the last turning point (or from the start of the data series). Aggregated
58:
Stiglitz's definition is: "...the basic intuition is straightforward: if the reason that the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be high tomorrow—when ‘fundamental' factors do not seem to justify such a price—then a bubble exists." (Stiglitz 1990, p. 13)
2127:
see eg. Case, K.E., Quigley, J. and Shiller R. (2001). Comparing wealth effects: the stock market versus the housing market. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 8606., Benjamin, J., Chinloy, P. and Jud, D. (2004). ”Real estate versus financial wealth in consumption”. In: Journal
95:
The last approach by Mayer (2011) is to utilize a combination of house price affordability to derive an equilibrium model. Often house prices are compared to income (income is used as proxy variable for affordability). If house prices are too high, households cannot afford the same level of housing
66:
Inspired by Lind (2009), Oust and Hrafnkelsson (2017) created the following housing bubble definition: "A large housing price bubble has a dramatic increase in real prices, at least 50% during a five-year period or 35% during a three-year period, followed by an immediate dramatic fall in the prices
87:
First, there is the finance-based method, where the house price equals the discounted future rents. This follows the same logic when performing a stock valuation; the stock price is equal to the discounted sum of all future dividends. The idea is that the value of equity is equal to the discounted
91:
The second approach is to compare the costs of building new dwellings against the actual house prices today. Much of the construction cost method has its basis in the demand and supply curve theory. If demand is low, this leads to lower house prices and less construction of new homes. Glaeser and
80:
Overpricing can be said to be a necessary, but insufficient indicator that a bubble exists. Overpricing is defined more widely than a bubble. An asset may be overpriced without there being a bubble, but you cannot have a (positive) bubble without overpricing. Over- or underpricing may simply be
899:
The table is from Oust and Hrafnkelsson (2017) and has been constructed using their bubble definition. The dataset consists of quarterly real prices for 20 OECD countries from 1970 to 2015. Duration is the number of quarters since the last turning point (or from the start of the data series).
62:
Lind (2009) argued that we needed a new definition of price bubbles in the housing market, an "anti-Stiglitz" definition. His point is that traditional definitions such as that of Stiglitz (1990), in which bubbles are proposed as arising from prices not being determined by fundamentals, are
38:
which periodically occur in the market. The basic concept of a housing bubble is the same as for other asset bubbles, consisting of two main phases. First there is a period where house prices increase dramatically, driven more and more by speculation. In the second phase, house prices fall
81:
defined as a deviation from the equilibrium price. DiPasquale and Wheaton (1994) say that: "Indeed, it appears to be normal for housing prices to deviate from the fundamental value or equilibrium price, since housing markets clear gradually rather than quickly in a short run."
209:
Housing prices vs. vacancy rate. A large number of vacancies will have a downward pressure on prices, since in this case; supply exceeds demand (Geltner, Miller, Clayton, & Eichholtz, 2007). Alternatively the opposite: occupancy
67:
of at least 35%. A small bubble has a dramatic increase in real prices, at least 35% during a five-year period or 20% during a three-year period, followed by an immediate dramatic fall in the prices of at least 20%."
230:
Housing prices vs. interest rates. If interest rates increase it will be more expensive to own a piece of real estate and to compensate for the higher user cost it can be expected that the price will drop. (Englund,
226:
The ratio between loan and disposable income should not change over time. An increase above the long term average indicates that the market may be overvalued (Finocchinaro, Nilsson, Nyberg, & Soultanaeva,
222:
The debt service ratio or debt coverage ratio (DSCR), i.e. the ratio of funds available for the payment of interest and principal. This is considered a good indicator for the level of risk involved (Joshi,
51:(1990), that try to describe bubbles as periods involving speculation, or argue that bubbles involve prices that cannot be justified by fundamentals. Examples are Palgrave (1926), Flood and Hodrick (1990), 2327:
Finocchinaro, D., Nilsson, C., Nyberg, D., & Soultanaeva, A. (2011). HushÄllens skuldsÀttning, bostadspriserna och makroekonomin: en genomgÄng av litteraturen. Stockholm: Sveriges Riksbank.
2021: 219:
The loan to value ratio (LTV) is a good indicator for the risk involved for the lender as well as for the borrower. The higher the ratio the higher is the risk (Kokko, 1999).
216:
Housing prices vs. GDP can be used if data on income is unavailable, since changes in GDP and income can be expected to correlate (Claussen, Jonsson, & Lagerwall, 2011).
84:
Mayer (2011) investigated house price bubbles and found that there are basically three approaches researchers take when investigating house price differ from equilibrium.
47:
Most research papers on housing bubbles use standard asset price definitions. There are many definitions of bubbles. Most of them are normative definitions, like that of
2221:
Lind, H. (2009). “Price bubbles in housing markets: concept, theory and indicators”. In: International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis Vol. 2 No. 1, pp. 78-90.
2032: 2252:
DiPasquale, D. and Wheaton, W.C. (1994), “Housing market dynamics and the future of housing prices”, Journal of Urban Economics , Vol. 35, pp. 1-27.
2205:
Cochrane, J. H. (2010), "Discount Rates", Working paper, University of Chicago, Booth School of Business, and NBER, Chicago, Illinois, 27 December.
2196:
Smith, M. H. and Smith, G. (2006), "Bubble, Bubble, Where’s the Housing Bubble?", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 2006 No. 1, pp. 1–50.
900:
Aggregated price change is the aggregate price change for the duration. *The aggregated price change is from the start of the period to the peak.
2300:
Claussen, C. A., Jonsson, M., & Lagerwall, B. (2011). En makroekonomisk analyd av bostadspriserna i Sverige. Stockholm: Sveriges riksbank.
2178:
Flood, R. P. and Hodrick, R. J. (1990), "On Testing for Speculative Bubbles", The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 4 No. 2, pp. 85–101.
2139: 213:
Real housing prices vs. demography. If there is a net inflow of tenants the cost of dwelling can be expected to increase (Englund, 2011).
1996:
price change is the aggregate price change for the duration. * The aggregated price change is from the start of the period to the peak.
2273:
Glaeser, E.L. and Gyourko, J. (2005), “Urban decline and durable housing”, Journal of Political Economy , Vol. 113 No. 2, pp. 345-375.
2043: 2049: 2318:
Joshi, H. (2006). Identifying aset price bubbles in the housing market in India - preliminary evidence. Reserve bank of India.
2282:
Shiller, R.J. (2010), "Shiller's List: How to Diagnose the Next Bubble", The New York Times, By JACK EWING, 27. januar, 2010
186:
Banks are increasing or at least not decreasing loan to value ratios for buyers on the housing market when prices increase.
139:
Nominal interest payment in relation to income would have been increasing if historical interest rate levels were applied.
2357: 2095: 2027: 864: 830: 145:
Real interest payments in relation to income would have been increasing if historical interest rate levels were applied.
2169:
Palgrave, R.H. I. (1926), "Palgrave's Dictionary of Political Economy", MacMillan & Co., London, England, p. 181.
2072: 2061: 164:
Buyers believe that even in a median term perspective (three to five years) investing in housing is almost risk‐free.
2015: 2352: 2084: 2037: 161:
Buyers expect prices to continue to rise or to stabilize on a level that is much higher than historical trends.
2187:
Shiller, R.J. (2005). Irrational Exuberance. 3nd. New Jersey: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691- 12335-7.
2160:
Stiglitz, J.E. (1990). “Symposium on bubbles”. In: Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol. 4 No. 2, pp. 13-18.
2089: 2067: 732: 698: 2078: 2055: 408: 374: 2239: 2336:
Englund, P. (2011). Svenska huspriser i ett internationellt pespektiv. Stockholm: Sveriges Riksbank.
2291:
Englund, P. (2011). Svenska huspriser i ett internationellt pespektiv. Stockholm: SverigesRiksbank.
2005: 20: 2264:
Mayer, C. (2011), “Housing bubbles: a survey”, Annual Review of Economics, Vol. 3, pp. 559-577.
88:
dividends. Price rent ratio and user cost of housing are methods that fall under this method.
153:
The easier it is to increase supply, the more likely is the increased price a part of a bubble
52: 2309:
Kokko, A. (1999). AsienkrisenmÄnga likheter med den Svensks krisen. Economisk Debatt, 81-92.
48: 35: 2115:
Brunnermeier, M.K. and Oehmke, M. (2012) Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk
2346: 197:
A larger share of home‐buyers than usual are planning to sell rather quickly again.
172:
People are entering ownership at an earlier age or at a higher quality level.
189:
Banks become more liberal when judging the credit worthiness of households.
114:
Stories of people earning much money, causing envy among people who are not
136:
Nominal interest payments in relation to income have been increasing.
2116: 234:
High and increasing house price growth. Oust and Hrafnkelsson (2017)
105:
Sharp increases in the price of an asset like real estate or shares
2132:"How Do House Prices Affect Consumption? Evidence From Micro Data" 175:
Buyers tend to choose riskier financing alternatives than earlier.
142:
Real interest payments in relation to income have been increasing.
2136:
Harvard Institute of Economic Research, Discussion Paper No. 2045
2128:
of Real Estate Finance and Economics 29, pp. 341-354., and
120:"New era" theories to justify unprecedented price increases 117:
Growing interest in asset class among the general public
2243:, Economics Bulletin, Volume 37, Issue 2, pages 806-836 133:
Interest payments in relation to income for homebuyers
127: 76:
Housing bubbles vs. overpricing in the housing market
55:(2015), Smith and Smith (2006) and Cochrane (2010). 2130:Campbell, John Y.; Cocco, JoĂŁo F. (October 2004). 904:Small housing bubbles in OECD countries 1970–2015 244:Large housing bubbles in OECD countries 1970–2015 2022:Russian residential real estate 2020–2022 bubble 2156: 2154: 2152: 128:Lind's housing bubble indicator groups (2009) 8: 2260: 2258: 108:Great public excitement about said increases 2233: 2231: 2229: 2227: 2138:. Harvard Institute of Economic Research. 2217: 2215: 2213: 2211: 907: 247: 178:Buyers are amortizing less than earlier. 2108: 99: 2237:Oust, A. and Hrafnkelsson, K. (2017) 7: 16:Real-estate bubble involving housing 169:Buyers risk‐taking and impatience 14: 2145:from the original on May 2, 2006. 933:Price change prior to/after peak 273:Price change prior to/after peak 100:Shiller's bubble checklist (2010) 930:Price change prior to/after peak 927:Price change prior to/after peak 924:Price change prior to/after peak 921:Price change prior to/after peak 270:Price change prior to/after peak 267:Price change prior to/after peak 264:Price change prior to/after peak 261:Price change prior to/after peak 158:Buyer expectations about prices 2011:For individual countries, see: 204:Other housing bubble indicators 19:For the more general term, see 123:A decline in lending standards 1: 34:) is one of several types of 2117:NBER Working Paper No. 18398 2096:United States housing bubble 2028:Baltic states housing bubble 111:An accompanying media frenzy 2073:New Zealand property bubble 2062:Japanese asset price bubble 71:Identifying housing bubbles 2374: 2016:Australian property bubble 239:Historical housing bubbles 18: 2240:What is a housing bubble? 43:Housing bubble definition 2085:Romanian property bubble 2038:Canadian property bubble 2090:Spanish property bubble 2068:Lebanese housing bubble 2044:Chinese property bubble 2033:British property bubble 2079:Polish property bubble 2050:Danish property bubble 2056:Irish property bubble 2024:— ongoing currently. 194:Speculative behavior 32:housing price bubble 2358:Economic inequality 2075:– ongoing currently 2040:- ongoing currently 2018:– ongoing currently 287:Duration (Quarters) 36:asset price bubbles 2006:Real estate bubble 21:Real-estate bubble 1993: 1992: 959:Aggregated 3 year 953:Aggregated 5 year 897: 896: 299:Aggregated 3 year 293:Aggregated 5 year 53:Robert J. Shiller 2365: 2353:Economic bubbles 2337: 2334: 2328: 2325: 2319: 2316: 2310: 2307: 2301: 2298: 2292: 2289: 2283: 2280: 2274: 2271: 2265: 2262: 2253: 2250: 2244: 2235: 2222: 2219: 2206: 2203: 2197: 2194: 2188: 2185: 2179: 2176: 2170: 2167: 2161: 2158: 2147: 2146: 2144: 2125: 2119: 2113: 908: 248: 2373: 2372: 2368: 2367: 2366: 2364: 2363: 2362: 2343: 2342: 2341: 2340: 2335: 2331: 2326: 2322: 2317: 2313: 2308: 2304: 2299: 2295: 2290: 2286: 2281: 2277: 2272: 2268: 2263: 2256: 2251: 2247: 2236: 2225: 2220: 2209: 2204: 2200: 2195: 2191: 2186: 2182: 2177: 2173: 2168: 2164: 2159: 2150: 2142: 2129: 2126: 2122: 2114: 2110: 2105: 2002: 906: 246: 241: 206: 150:Housing supply 130: 102: 78: 73: 49:Joseph Stiglitz 45: 24: 17: 12: 11: 5: 2371: 2369: 2361: 2360: 2355: 2345: 2344: 2339: 2338: 2329: 2320: 2311: 2302: 2293: 2284: 2275: 2266: 2254: 2245: 2223: 2207: 2198: 2189: 2180: 2171: 2162: 2148: 2120: 2107: 2106: 2104: 2101: 2100: 2099: 2093: 2087: 2082: 2076: 2070: 2065: 2059: 2053: 2047: 2041: 2035: 2030: 2025: 2019: 2009: 2008: 2001: 1998: 1991: 1990: 1987: 1984: 1981: 1978: 1975: 1972: 1969: 1966: 1963: 1959: 1958: 1955: 1952: 1949: 1946: 1943: 1940: 1937: 1934: 1931: 1927: 1926: 1923: 1920: 1917: 1914: 1911: 1908: 1905: 1902: 1899: 1895: 1894: 1891: 1888: 1885: 1882: 1879: 1876: 1873: 1870: 1867: 1863: 1862: 1859: 1856: 1853: 1850: 1847: 1844: 1841: 1838: 1835: 1831: 1830: 1827: 1824: 1821: 1818: 1815: 1812: 1809: 1806: 1803: 1799: 1798: 1795: 1792: 1789: 1786: 1783: 1780: 1777: 1774: 1771: 1767: 1766: 1763: 1760: 1757: 1754: 1751: 1748: 1745: 1742: 1739: 1735: 1734: 1731: 1728: 1725: 1722: 1719: 1716: 1713: 1710: 1707: 1703: 1702: 1699: 1696: 1693: 1690: 1687: 1684: 1681: 1678: 1675: 1671: 1670: 1667: 1664: 1661: 1658: 1655: 1652: 1649: 1646: 1643: 1639: 1638: 1635: 1632: 1629: 1626: 1623: 1620: 1617: 1614: 1611: 1607: 1606: 1603: 1600: 1597: 1594: 1591: 1588: 1585: 1582: 1579: 1575: 1574: 1571: 1568: 1565: 1562: 1559: 1556: 1553: 1550: 1547: 1543: 1542: 1539: 1536: 1533: 1530: 1527: 1524: 1521: 1518: 1515: 1511: 1510: 1507: 1504: 1501: 1498: 1495: 1492: 1489: 1486: 1483: 1479: 1478: 1475: 1472: 1469: 1466: 1463: 1460: 1457: 1454: 1451: 1447: 1446: 1443: 1440: 1437: 1434: 1431: 1428: 1425: 1422: 1419: 1415: 1414: 1411: 1408: 1405: 1402: 1399: 1396: 1393: 1390: 1387: 1383: 1382: 1379: 1376: 1373: 1370: 1367: 1364: 1361: 1358: 1355: 1351: 1350: 1347: 1344: 1341: 1338: 1335: 1332: 1329: 1326: 1323: 1319: 1318: 1315: 1312: 1309: 1306: 1303: 1300: 1297: 1294: 1291: 1287: 1286: 1283: 1280: 1277: 1274: 1271: 1268: 1265: 1262: 1259: 1255: 1254: 1251: 1248: 1245: 1242: 1239: 1236: 1233: 1230: 1227: 1223: 1222: 1219: 1216: 1213: 1210: 1207: 1204: 1201: 1198: 1195: 1191: 1190: 1187: 1184: 1181: 1178: 1175: 1172: 1169: 1166: 1163: 1159: 1158: 1155: 1152: 1149: 1146: 1143: 1140: 1137: 1134: 1131: 1127: 1126: 1123: 1120: 1117: 1114: 1111: 1108: 1105: 1102: 1099: 1095: 1094: 1091: 1088: 1085: 1082: 1079: 1076: 1073: 1070: 1067: 1063: 1062: 1059: 1056: 1053: 1050: 1047: 1044: 1041: 1038: 1035: 1031: 1030: 1027: 1024: 1021: 1018: 1015: 1012: 1009: 1006: 1003: 999: 998: 995: 992: 989: 986: 983: 980: 977: 974: 971: 967: 966: 963: 962:An. 3Y average 960: 957: 956:An. 5Y average 954: 951: 948: 945: 942: 939: 935: 934: 931: 928: 925: 922: 919: 917: 915: 913: 911: 905: 902: 895: 894: 891: 888: 885: 882: 879: 876: 873: 870: 867: 861: 860: 857: 854: 851: 848: 845: 842: 839: 836: 833: 827: 826: 823: 820: 817: 814: 811: 808: 805: 802: 799: 795: 794: 791: 788: 785: 782: 779: 776: 773: 770: 767: 763: 762: 759: 756: 753: 750: 747: 744: 741: 738: 735: 729: 728: 725: 722: 719: 716: 713: 710: 707: 704: 701: 695: 694: 691: 688: 685: 682: 679: 676: 673: 670: 667: 663: 662: 659: 656: 653: 650: 647: 644: 641: 638: 635: 631: 630: 627: 624: 621: 618: 615: 612: 609: 606: 603: 599: 598: 595: 592: 589: 586: 583: 580: 577: 574: 571: 567: 566: 563: 560: 557: 554: 551: 548: 545: 542: 539: 535: 534: 531: 528: 525: 522: 519: 516: 513: 510: 507: 503: 502: 499: 496: 493: 490: 487: 484: 481: 478: 475: 471: 470: 467: 464: 461: 458: 455: 452: 449: 446: 443: 439: 438: 435: 432: 429: 426: 423: 420: 417: 414: 411: 405: 404: 401: 398: 395: 392: 389: 386: 383: 380: 377: 371: 370: 367: 364: 361: 358: 355: 352: 349: 346: 343: 339: 338: 335: 332: 329: 326: 323: 320: 317: 314: 311: 307: 306: 303: 302:An. 3Y average 300: 297: 296:An. 5Y average 294: 291: 288: 285: 282: 279: 275: 274: 271: 268: 265: 262: 259: 257: 255: 253: 251: 245: 242: 240: 237: 236: 235: 232: 228: 224: 220: 217: 214: 211: 205: 202: 201: 200: 199: 198: 192: 191: 190: 184: 181: 180: 179: 176: 173: 167: 166: 165: 162: 156: 155: 154: 148: 147: 146: 143: 140: 137: 129: 126: 125: 124: 121: 118: 115: 112: 109: 106: 101: 98: 77: 74: 72: 69: 44: 41: 28:housing bubble 15: 13: 10: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 2370: 2359: 2356: 2354: 2351: 2350: 2348: 2333: 2330: 2324: 2321: 2315: 2312: 2306: 2303: 2297: 2294: 2288: 2285: 2279: 2276: 2270: 2267: 2261: 2259: 2255: 2249: 2246: 2242: 2241: 2234: 2232: 2230: 2228: 2224: 2218: 2216: 2214: 2212: 2208: 2202: 2199: 2193: 2190: 2184: 2181: 2175: 2172: 2166: 2163: 2157: 2155: 2153: 2149: 2141: 2137: 2133: 2124: 2121: 2118: 2112: 2109: 2102: 2097: 2094: 2091: 2088: 2086: 2083: 2080: 2077: 2074: 2071: 2069: 2066: 2063: 2060: 2057: 2054: 2051: 2048: 2045: 2042: 2039: 2036: 2034: 2031: 2029: 2026: 2023: 2020: 2017: 2014: 2013: 2012: 2007: 2004: 2003: 1999: 1997: 1988: 1985: 1982: 1979: 1976: 1973: 1970: 1967: 1964: 1961: 1960: 1956: 1953: 1950: 1947: 1944: 1941: 1938: 1935: 1932: 1929: 1928: 1924: 1921: 1918: 1915: 1912: 1909: 1906: 1903: 1900: 1897: 1896: 1892: 1889: 1886: 1883: 1880: 1877: 1874: 1871: 1868: 1865: 1864: 1861:-10.6 % 1860: 1857: 1854: 1851: 1848: 1845: 1842: 1839: 1836: 1833: 1832: 1828: 1825: 1822: 1819: 1816: 1813: 1810: 1807: 1804: 1801: 1800: 1796: 1793: 1790: 1787: 1784: 1781: 1778: 1775: 1772: 1769: 1768: 1764: 1761: 1758: 1755: 1752: 1749: 1746: 1743: 1740: 1737: 1736: 1733:-12.5 % 1732: 1729: 1726: 1723: 1720: 1717: 1714: 1711: 1708: 1705: 1704: 1700: 1697: 1694: 1691: 1688: 1685: 1682: 1679: 1676: 1673: 1672: 1669:-10.4 % 1668: 1665: 1662: 1659: 1656: 1653: 1650: 1647: 1644: 1641: 1640: 1636: 1633: 1630: 1627: 1624: 1621: 1618: 1615: 1612: 1609: 1608: 1605:-11.6 % 1604: 1601: 1598: 1595: 1592: 1589: 1586: 1583: 1580: 1577: 1576: 1572: 1569: 1566: 1563: 1560: 1557: 1554: 1551: 1548: 1545: 1544: 1541:-14.8 % 1540: 1537: 1534: 1531: 1528: 1525: 1522: 1519: 1516: 1513: 1512: 1508: 1505: 1502: 1499: 1496: 1493: 1490: 1487: 1484: 1481: 1480: 1476: 1473: 1470: 1467: 1464: 1461: 1458: 1455: 1452: 1449: 1448: 1444: 1441: 1438: 1435: 1432: 1429: 1426: 1423: 1420: 1417: 1416: 1413:-17.6 % 1412: 1409: 1406: 1403: 1400: 1397: 1394: 1391: 1388: 1385: 1384: 1380: 1377: 1374: 1371: 1368: 1365: 1362: 1359: 1356: 1353: 1352: 1348: 1345: 1342: 1339: 1336: 1333: 1330: 1327: 1324: 1321: 1320: 1316: 1313: 1310: 1307: 1304: 1301: 1298: 1295: 1292: 1289: 1288: 1284: 1281: 1278: 1275: 1272: 1269: 1266: 1263: 1260: 1257: 1256: 1252: 1249: 1246: 1243: 1240: 1237: 1234: 1231: 1228: 1225: 1224: 1221:-13.5 % 1220: 1217: 1214: 1211: 1208: 1205: 1202: 1199: 1196: 1193: 1192: 1188: 1185: 1182: 1179: 1176: 1173: 1170: 1167: 1164: 1161: 1160: 1156: 1153: 1150: 1147: 1144: 1141: 1138: 1135: 1132: 1129: 1128: 1124: 1121: 1118: 1115: 1112: 1109: 1106: 1103: 1100: 1097: 1096: 1093:-12.5 % 1092: 1089: 1086: 1083: 1080: 1077: 1074: 1071: 1068: 1065: 1064: 1060: 1057: 1054: 1051: 1048: 1045: 1042: 1039: 1036: 1033: 1032: 1028: 1025: 1022: 1019: 1016: 1013: 1010: 1007: 1004: 1001: 1000: 996: 993: 990: 987: 984: 981: 978: 975: 972: 969: 968: 964: 961: 958: 955: 952: 949: 946: 944:Peaks/troughs 943: 940: 937: 936: 932: 929: 926: 923: 920: 918: 916: 914: 912: 910: 909: 903: 901: 892: 889: 886: 883: 880: 877: 874: 871: 868: 866: 863: 862: 858: 855: 852: 849: 846: 843: 840: 837: 834: 832: 829: 828: 825:-11.2 % 824: 821: 818: 815: 812: 809: 806: 803: 800: 797: 796: 792: 789: 786: 783: 780: 777: 774: 771: 768: 765: 764: 760: 757: 754: 751: 748: 745: 742: 739: 736: 734: 731: 730: 726: 723: 720: 717: 714: 711: 708: 705: 702: 700: 697: 696: 693:-18.1 % 692: 689: 686: 683: 680: 677: 674: 671: 668: 665: 664: 660: 657: 654: 651: 648: 645: 642: 639: 636: 633: 632: 628: 625: 622: 619: 616: 613: 610: 607: 604: 601: 600: 596: 593: 590: 587: 584: 581: 578: 575: 572: 569: 568: 564: 561: 558: 555: 552: 549: 546: 543: 540: 537: 536: 532: 529: 526: 523: 520: 517: 514: 511: 508: 505: 504: 501:-11.8 % 500: 497: 494: 491: 488: 485: 482: 479: 476: 473: 472: 468: 465: 462: 459: 456: 453: 450: 447: 444: 441: 440: 436: 433: 430: 427: 424: 421: 418: 415: 412: 410: 407: 406: 402: 399: 396: 393: 390: 387: 384: 381: 378: 376: 373: 372: 369:-11.9 % 368: 365: 362: 359: 356: 353: 350: 347: 344: 341: 340: 336: 333: 330: 327: 324: 321: 318: 315: 312: 309: 308: 304: 301: 298: 295: 292: 289: 286: 284:Peaks/troughs 283: 280: 277: 276: 272: 269: 266: 263: 260: 258: 256: 254: 252: 250: 249: 243: 238: 233: 229: 225: 221: 218: 215: 212: 208: 207: 203: 196: 195: 193: 188: 187: 185: 183:Bank behavior 182: 177: 174: 171: 170: 168: 163: 160: 159: 157: 152: 151: 149: 144: 141: 138: 135: 134: 132: 131: 122: 119: 116: 113: 110: 107: 104: 103: 97: 93: 89: 85: 82: 75: 70: 68: 64: 60: 56: 54: 50: 42: 40: 37: 33: 29: 22: 2332: 2323: 2314: 2305: 2296: 2287: 2278: 2269: 2248: 2238: 2201: 2192: 2183: 2174: 2165: 2135: 2123: 2111: 2010: 1994: 1989:-9.4 % 1983:-24.7 % 1977:-26.6 % 1974:-29.3 % 1957:10.6 % 1942:103.6 % 1925:-8.0 % 1919:-21.6 % 1913:-27.6 % 1910:-38.6 % 1855:-27.8 % 1849:-26.6 % 1846:-28.4 % 1829:17.7 % 1817:*27.7 % 1797:-1.6 % 1791:-28.4 % 1785:-30.0 % 1782:-31.9 % 1727:-18.7 % 1721:-21.0 % 1718:-21.2 % 1701:10.9 % 1689:102.4 % 1686:142.3 % 1663:-25.9 % 1657:-30.8 % 1654:-36.7 % 1637:12.2 % 1599:-25.8 % 1593:-33.0 % 1590:-48.5 % 1538:-11.2 % 1535:-33.6 % 1529:-15.2 % 1526:-33.6 % 1477:-3.3 % 1471:-14.3 % 1465:-17.3 % 1462:-49.5 % 1410:-10.5 % 1407:-31.5 % 1401:-32.3 % 1398:-34.2 % 1381:17.0 % 1369:*60.9 % 1349:-4.8 % 1343:-18.5 % 1337:-27.6 % 1334:-27.8 % 1317:19.2 % 1285:-7.0 % 1279:-25.7 % 1273:-29.0 % 1270:-35.3 % 1215:-26.6 % 1209:-33.8 % 1206:-34.0 % 1177:*27.9 % 1157:-0.7 % 1151:-21.1 % 1145:-25.0 % 1142:-28.5 % 1125:21.1 % 1110:180.1 % 1087:-19.2 % 1081:-29.4 % 1078:-36.5 % 1061:14.0 % 1029:-7.1 % 1023:-26.5 % 1017:-36.8 % 1014:-40.4 % 898: 893:-4.3 % 890:-11.0 % 887:-33.0 % 881:-37.1 % 878:-39.6 % 819:-28.9 % 813:-29.3 % 810:-35.6 % 793:23.5 % 781:*67.4 % 761:-4.5 % 755:-14.1 % 749:-36.0 % 746:-45.5 % 712:138.8 % 690:-14.7 % 687:-44.1 % 681:-42.8 % 678:-44.1 % 666:South Africa 634:South Africa 629:-2.3 % 623:-28.6 % 617:-41.2 % 614:-45.5 % 597:25.0 % 565:-9.2 % 559:-22.7 % 553:-34.7 % 550:-39.4 % 533:29.9 % 521:*66.2 % 498:-11.8 % 495:-35.5 % 489:-47.9 % 486:-52.6 % 454:138.9 % 437:-7.1 % 434:-10.6 % 431:-31.8 % 428:-10.3 % 425:-51.6 % 422:-53.6 % 403:10.1 % 388:235.6 % 366:-13.7 % 357:-46.0 % 354:-50.5 % 337:24.1 % 94: 90: 86: 83: 79: 65: 61: 57: 46: 31: 27: 25: 2098:– 1997–2006 2092:– 1985–2008 2081:– 2002–2008 2064:– 1986–1991 2058:– 1999–2006 2052:– 2001–2006 2046:– 2005–2011 1986:-8.2 % 1980:-5.3 % 1954:19.4 % 1951:58.1 % 1948:15.6 % 1945:77.8 % 1922:-7.2 % 1916:-5.5 % 1898:Switzerland 1893:4.6 % 1887:28.7 % 1881:38.1 % 1878:72.1 % 1866:Switzerland 1858:-9.3 % 1852:-5.3 % 1834:Switzerland 1823:27.7 % 1814:27.7 % 1802:Switzerland 1794:-9.5 % 1788:-6.0 % 1765:8.8 % 1762:12.0 % 1759:35.9 % 1753:42.5 % 1750:46.6 % 1730:-6.2 % 1724:-4.2 % 1698:11.4 % 1695:34.2 % 1692:20.5 % 1666:-8.6 % 1660:-6.2 % 1631:24.1 % 1625:40.6 % 1622:29.7 % 1602:-8.6 % 1596:-6.6 % 1573:8.1 % 1567:25.7 % 1561:27.0 % 1558:34.3 % 1532:-3.0 % 1509:5.4 % 1506:24.1 % 1503:72.3 % 1500:17.7 % 1497:88.5 % 1494:88.5 % 1474:-4.8 % 1468:-3.5 % 1445:9.7 % 1439:22.9 % 1433:37.6 % 1430:79.6 % 1404:-6.5 % 1378:15.8 % 1375:47.5 % 1372:16.2 % 1366:60.9 % 1346:-6.2 % 1340:-5.5 % 1314:12.2 % 1311:36.5 % 1305:26.8 % 1302:40.6 % 1282:-8.6 % 1276:-5.8 % 1253:5.8 % 1247:29.2 % 1241:44.3 % 1238:44.3 % 1218:-8.9 % 1212:-6.8 % 1189:6.8 % 1183:28.5 % 1174:28.8 % 1154:-7.0 % 1148:-5.0 % 1122:20.0 % 1119:60.0 % 1116:12.8 % 1113:63.9 % 1090:-6.4 % 1084:-5.9 % 1058:10.5 % 1055:31.5 % 1049:29.9 % 1046:55.8 % 1026:-8.8 % 1020:-7.4 % 997:3.9 % 991:21.2 % 985:33.4 % 982:59.6 % 884:-7.4 % 859:7.8 % 856:11.8 % 853:35.4 % 850:10.8 % 847:54.1 % 844:92.9 % 822:-9.6 % 816:-5.9 % 790:22.1 % 787:66.2 % 784:19.3 % 778:67.4 % 758:-4.7 % 752:-7.2 % 727:9.0 % 724:10.0 % 721:30.1 % 718:13.8 % 715:69.2 % 684:-8.6 % 661:9.2 % 655:25.5 % 652:11.0 % 649:54.9 % 646:55.1 % 626:-9.5 % 620:-8.2 % 594:13.3 % 591:39.8 % 585:37.8 % 582:44.0 % 562:-7.6 % 556:-6.9 % 538:New Zealand 530:21.5 % 527:64.4 % 524:14.7 % 518:66.2 % 506:New Zealand 492:-9.6 % 474:Netherlands 469:6.5 % 466:23.0 % 463:69.0 % 460:18.9 % 457:94.4 % 442:Netherlands 400:10.2 % 397:30.5 % 394:10.6 % 391:52.9 % 363:41.0 % 360:-9.2 % 334:21.9 % 331:65.8 % 328:12.7 % 325:63.3 % 322:68.3 % 2347:Categories 2103:References 1890:9.6 % 1884:7.6 % 1826:9.2 % 1820:9.2 % 1756:8.5 % 1634:8.0 % 1628:8.1 % 1570:8.6 % 1564:5.4 % 1442:7.6 % 1436:7.5 % 1308:5.4 % 1250:9.7 % 1244:8.9 % 1186:9.5 % 1180:6.6 % 1052:6.0 % 994:7.1 % 988:6.7 % 950:Aggregated 658:8.5 % 588:7.6 % 290:Aggregated 2140:Archived 2000:See also 1933:Increase 1869:Increase 1805:Increase 1741:Increase 1677:Increase 1613:Increase 1549:Increase 1485:Increase 1421:Increase 1357:Increase 1293:Increase 1229:Increase 1165:Increase 1101:Increase 1037:Increase 973:Increase 947:Duration 835:Increase 769:Increase 703:Increase 637:Increase 573:Increase 509:Increase 445:Increase 379:Increase 313:Increase 1968:1995-Q4 1936:1989-Q3 1904:2000-Q1 1872:1989-Q4 1840:1976-Q3 1808:1973-Q1 1776:1995-Q4 1744:1990-Q1 1712:1997-Q1 1680:1991-Q4 1648:1982-Q4 1616:1978-Q2 1584:2001-Q1 1552:1991-Q1 1520:1982-Q2 1488:1979-Q2 1456:2009-Q2 1424:1990-Q4 1392:1977-Q3 1360:1973-Q4 1328:1986-Q4 1296:1981-Q2 1264:1987-Q2 1258:Ireland 1232:1980-Q4 1226:Ireland 1200:1979-Q3 1194:Finland 1168:1974-Q2 1162:Finland 1136:2012-Q4 1130:Denmark 1104:2006-Q3 1098:Denmark 1072:1993-Q2 1066:Denmark 1040:1986-Q2 1034:Denmark 1008:1985-Q2 1002:Belgium 976:1979-Q3 970:Belgium 965:1 year 938:Country 872:2011-Q4 838:2006-Q1 804:1977-Q3 772:1973-Q3 740:2014-Q1 706:2007-Q2 672:1987-Q1 640:1984-Q1 608:1993-Q1 576:1987-Q1 544:1980-Q4 512:1974-Q3 480:1985-Q3 448:1978-Q2 416:2013-Q1 409:Ireland 382:2007-Q1 375:Ireland 348:1995-Q4 342:Finland 316:1989-Q2 310:Finland 305:1 year 278:Country 1770:Sweden 1738:Sweden 602:Norway 570:Norway 231:2011). 227:2011). 223:2006). 2143:(PDF) 1706:Spain 1674:Spain 1642:Spain 1610:Spain 1578:Korea 1546:Korea 1514:Korea 1482:Korea 1450:Japan 1418:Japan 1386:Japan 1354:Japan 1322:Italy 1290:Italy 941:Price 733:Spain 699:Spain 281:Price 210:rate. 1965:Fall 1901:Fall 1837:Fall 1773:Fall 1709:Fall 1645:Fall 1581:Fall 1517:Fall 1453:Fall 1389:Fall 1325:Fall 1261:Fall 1197:Fall 1133:Fall 1069:Fall 1005:Fall 869:Fall 801:Fall 737:Fall 669:Fall 605:Fall 541:Fall 477:Fall 413:Fall 345:Fall 30:(or 865:USA 831:USA 2349:: 2257:^ 2226:^ 2210:^ 2151:^ 2134:. 1971:25 1962:UK 1939:30 1930:UK 1907:41 1875:53 1843:14 1811:12 1779:23 1747:17 1715:21 1683:36 1651:18 1587:40 1555:14 1523:12 1491:37 1459:74 1427:53 1395:15 1363:15 1331:22 1299:13 1267:26 1235:43 1203:21 1171:10 1139:25 1107:53 1075:28 1043:14 1011:23 979:31 875:23 841:38 807:16 798:UK 775:14 766:UK 743:27 709:41 675:12 643:21 611:24 547:25 515:18 483:29 451:33 419:24 385:56 351:26 319:15 26:A 1619:9 579:8 23:.

Index

Real-estate bubble
asset price bubbles
Joseph Stiglitz
Robert J. Shiller
Ireland
Ireland
Spain
Spain
USA
USA
Real estate bubble
Australian property bubble
Russian residential real estate 2020–2022 bubble
Baltic states housing bubble
British property bubble
Canadian property bubble
Chinese property bubble
Danish property bubble
Irish property bubble
Japanese asset price bubble
Lebanese housing bubble
New Zealand property bubble
Polish property bubble
Romanian property bubble
Spanish property bubble
United States housing bubble
NBER Working Paper No. 18398
"How Do House Prices Affect Consumption? Evidence From Micro Data"
Archived

Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Additional terms may apply.

↑