151:; because of the lack of incumbency advantage, these are often amongst the most hotly contested races in any election. Also, an open contest is created when the term of office is limited, as in the case of terms of the U.S. president being restricted to two four-year terms, and the incumbent is prohibited from recontesting. Although the expected advantage of incumbency has gone from about two percentage points in the 1950s, to ten percentage points in the 1980s and 1990s, and then back to about two percentage points in the 2010s and 2020s, the probability that an incumbent will lose his or her seat has remained approximately the same over the entire period.
227:, situations of this kind occur when the incumbent has proven themself not worthy of office during their tenure and the challengers demonstrate this to the voters. An anti-incumbency factor can also be responsible for bringing down incumbents who have been in office for many successive terms despite performance indicators, simply because the voters are convinced by the challengers of a need for change. It is also argued that the holders of extensively powerful offices are subject to immense pressure which leaves them politically impotent and unable to command enough public confidence for re-election; such is the case, for example, with the
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209:(not known as such in the United Kingdom) in which first term representatives see an increase in votes in their first election. This phenomenon is said to bring an advantage of up to 10% for first term representatives, which increases the incumbency advantage. However, the extent of the surge is a biased estimate of the electoral advantage of incumbency.
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When newcomers look to fill an open office, voters tend to compare and contrast the candidates' qualifications, positions on political issues, and personal characteristics in a relatively straightforward way. Elections featuring an incumbent, on the other hand, are, as Guy
Molyneux puts it,
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164:
argues that the incumbency advantage stems from the fact that voters evaluate the incumbent's ideology individually whereas they assume that any challenger shares his party's ideology. This means that the incumbency advantage gets more significant as
191:, an incumbent supplier is usually the supplier who currently supplies the needs of a customer and therefore has an advantageous position in relation to maintaining this role or agreeing a new contract in comparison with competing businesses.
155:"fundamentally a referendum on the incumbent." Voters will first grapple with the record of the incumbent. Only if they decide to "fire" the incumbent do they begin to evaluate whether each of the challengers is an acceptable alternative.
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121:. Except when the timing of elections is determined by a constitution or by legislation, the incumbent in some countries may have the right to determine the date of an election.
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109:, most appropriately defined: "To occupy obstructively or inconveniently; to block fill up with what hinders freedom of motion or action; to burden, load."
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58:, the incumbent is the person holding or acting in the position that is up for election, regardless of whether they are seeking re-election.
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However, there exist scenarios in which the incumbency factor itself leads to the downfall of the incumbent. Popularly known as the
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in 1989—that any voter who claims to be undecided towards the end of the election will probably end up voting for a challenger.
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442:"If a Statistical Model Predicts That Common Events Should Occur Only Once in 10,000 Elections, Maybe it's the Wrong Model"
38:
544:
de
Benedictis-Kessner, Justin (2017-12-07). "Off-Cycle and Out of Office: Election Timing and the Incumbency Advantage".
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of a loss of income are less likely to vote for an incumbent candidate than those who have not experienced such a shock.
65:: the previous holder may have died, retired, resigned; they may not seek re-election, be barred from re-election due to
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Incumbency effects in a comparative perspective: Evidence from
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Political analysts in the United States and United
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37:"Re-election" redirects here. For the system used in the English Football League, see
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found that incumbents have "a far larger advantage" in on-cycle elections than in
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In general, an incumbent has a political advantage over challengers at
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For most political offices, the incumbent often has more
249:("Get out the outgoing !"), which was the slogan of the
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In France, the phenomenon is known by the catchphrase
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Nick
Panagakis, a pollster, coined what he dubbed the
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Ebanks, Danny; Katz, Jonathan N.; King, Gary (2023).
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In the United States, an election (especially for a
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The word "incumbent" is derived from the Latin verb
594:, updated 27 January 2021, Retrieved 20 March 2021.
487:"Ideological Signaling and Incumbency Advantage"
132:, as well as government resources (such as the
375:"Estimating Incumbency Advantage without Bias"
606:"France's Presidency Is Too Powerful to Work"
298:List of presidents who did not win reelection
283:List of current heads of state and government
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61:There may or may not be an incumbent on the
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629:"Political Responses to Economic Shocks"
105:while encumber is derived from the root
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187:In relation to business operations and
646:10.1146/annurev-polisci-050517-110713
382:American Journal of Political Science
231:. Voters who experience the negative
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668:Nick Panagakis (February 27, 1989).
494:British Journal of Political Science
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161:British Journal of Political Science
27:Current holder of a political office
373:Gelman, Andrew; King, Gary (1990).
30:For the ecclesiastical office, see
633:Annual Review of Political Science
429:from the original on Jan 21, 2024.
25:
485:Peskowitz, Zachary (2017-05-01).
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255:1956 French legislative election
169:increases. A 2017 study in the
627:Margalit, Yotam (2019-05-11).
446:Gary King - Harvard University
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39:Re-election (Football League)
604:Robert Tombs (May 2, 2017).
305:Rally 'round the flag effect
50:is the current holder of an
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141:single-member constituency
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32:Incumbent (ecclesiastical)
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709:De Magalhaes, L. (2015).
696:Oxford English Dictionary
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101:, "leaning a variant of
546:The Journal of Politics
288:Lists of office-holders
699:. 2nd ed. 1989. Print.
225:anti-incumbency factor
167:political polarization
735:Political terminology
470:The American Prospect
229:Presidency of France
158:A 2017 study in the
113:Incumbency advantage
293:Outgoing politician
247:Sortez les sortants
177:off-cycle elections
172:Journal of Politics
54:or position. In an
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134:franking privilege
71:electoral division
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315:Virtual incumbent
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189:competition
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451:2023-02-14
321:References
99:incumbent-
18:Incumbency
655:1094-2939
588:Incumbent
574:222440248
566:0022-3816
523:157292602
514:0007-1234
402:0092-5853
251:Poujadist
149:open seat
119:elections
103:encumber,
95:incumbere
89:Etymology
79:open seat
48:incumbent
729:Category
424:Archived
261:See also
56:election
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419:3752645
410:2111475
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406:JSTOR
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143:in a
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46:The
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