114:. One of his pieces in Foreign Policy, on why forecasting political violence and unusual situations around the world was considerably harder than forecasting the results of elections in the United States, received a lengthy response from Michael Ward and Nils Mitternich.
46:
In the 2010s, Ulfelder maintained a blog called Dart-Throwing Chimp that offered commentary on geopolitical forecasting and other topics. Around the same time, he worked as a consultant to the Simon-Skjodt Center for the
Prevention of Genocide at the
55:
for mass atrocities in countries worldwide. From 2017 to 2019, Ulfelder worked for Koto, the national security and risk division of Kensho
Technologies, on the development of software to support the work geopolitical analysts.
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23:, specifically on anticipating various forms of political instability around the world. From 2001 to 2010, he served as research director of the
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Ulfelder, Jay (26 January 2015). "Promising
Initial Results from a New Mass-Atrocities Early Warning System".
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about his work forecasting mass atrocities. He has also been interviewed by Strife blog and by the
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219:"Interview with Jay Ulfelder, Former Research Director at the Political Instability Task Force"
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521:"A Multimodel Ensemble for Forecasting Onsets of State-Sponsored Mass Killing".
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408:"International Integration and Democratization: An Event History Analysis"
314:"Contentious Collective Action and the Breakdown of Authoritarian Regimes"
52:
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454:"Can Structural Conditions Explain the Onset of Nonviolent Uprisings?"
19:
is an
American political scientist who is best known for his work on
741:"A worrying map of the countries most likely to have a coup in 2014"
971:
853:"It's Harder Than It Looks to Link Inequality With Global Turmoil"
31:. He is also the author of a book and several journal articles on
713:"Thailand has had more coups than any other country. This is why"
240:"Dilemmas of Democratic Consolidation: A Game Theory Approach"
951:"5 Q's for Social Science Forecasting Expert Jay Ulfelder"
901:
Ward, Michael D.; Metternich, Nils (November 16, 2012).
266:"Natural-Resource Wealth and the Survival of Autocracy"
59:
In 2020, Ulfelder became a Carr Center Fellow at the
79:Ulfelder has been cited and quoted as an expert on
212:
210:
903:"Predicting the Future Is Easier Than It Looks"
825:"The World Isn't Less Free Than It Used to Be"
362:"Modelling Transitions To and From Democracy"
8:
582:"Plotting Zimbabwe's Post-Coup Trajectory"
972:"Why Dictators Build Things That Crumble"
125:and gave a talk at TEDx Tbilisi in 2013.
102:Ulfelder is an occasional contributor to
881:"Why the World Can't Have a Nate Silver"
452:Chenoweth, Erica; Ulfelder, Jay (2017).
360:Ulfelder, Jay; Lustik, Michael (2007).
190:"Political Instability Task Force Home"
140:
138:
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49:United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
319:International Political Science Review
117:In 2014, Ulfelder was interviewed on
7:
928:"Jay Ulfelder: Forecasting Conflict"
949:Korte, Travis (February 28, 2014).
823:Ulfelder, Jay (February 11, 2016).
657:"Crimea Through a Game-Theory Lens"
624:Sengupta, Somini (March 22, 2014).
879:Ulfelder, Jay (November 8, 2012).
217:Comley, David (January 17, 2014).
145:Ulfelder, Jay (25 November 2010).
14:
851:Ulfelder, Jay (January 7, 2016).
772:"A global political stress test"
739:Fisher, Max (January 28, 2014).
711:Fisher, Max (December 3, 2013).
626:"Spreadsheets and Global Mayhem"
25:Political Instability Task Force
27:(PITF), which is funded by the
683:Cohen, Micah (April 6, 2012).
459:Journal of Conflict Resolution
1:
1018:American political scientists
271:Comparative Political Studies
119:The Agenda with Steve Paikin
67:as program director for the
560:"Welcome to Koto Analytics"
53:public early warning system
29:Central Intelligence Agency
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123:Center for Data Innovation
424:10.1080/13510340701846343
378:10.1080/13510340701303196
472:10.1177/0022002715576574
332:10.1177/0192512105053786
284:10.1177/0010414006287238
244:Lynne Rienner Publishers
194:Center for Global Policy
406:Ulfelder, Jay (2008).
312:Ulfelder, Jay (2005).
264:Ulfelder, Jay (2007).
61:Harvard Kennedy School
37:democratic backsliding
685:"Reads and Reactions"
604:"Carr Center Fellows"
501:"Dart-Throwing Chimp"
149:. Dart-Throwing Chimp
85:political instability
81:political forecasting
69:Nonviolent Action Lab
21:political forecasting
41:contentious politics
777:The Washington Post
770:(August 12, 2011).
746:The Washington Post
51:on the design of a
655:(March 15, 2014).
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278:(8): 995–1018.
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799:"Jay Ulfelder"
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169:"Jay Ulfelder"
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984:December 4,
934:December 4,
864:December 4,
836:December 4,
768:Klein, Ezra
609:December 4,
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506:December 4,
485:December 4,
437:December 4,
391:December 4,
345:December 4,
297:December 4,
249:December 4,
1012:Categories
129:References
480:145798044
432:145193122
340:146144884
292:154316752
75:Reception
93:and the
977:YouTube
956:June 3,
912:June 3,
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386:1633808
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476:S2CID
428:S2CID
382:S2CID
336:S2CID
288:S2CID
986:2020
958:2014
936:2020
914:2014
888:2014
866:2020
838:2020
810:2014
785:2014
754:2014
726:2014
698:2014
670:2014
639:2014
611:2020
590:2020
568:2020
542:SSRN
523:SSRN
508:2020
487:2020
439:2020
393:2020
347:2020
299:2020
251:2020
226:2014
201:2014
176:2014
155:2014
108:and
83:and
468:doi
420:doi
374:doi
328:doi
280:doi
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