432:"I have voiced my concern about the technology sector, and I sometimes advise people to shade down from that sector relative to its percentage in the I really am concerned with these companies that have p-e ratios of 90, 100, and above. I still think stocks, as a diversified portfolio, are the best long-run investment. I will say that indexed bonds at 4% are an attractive hedge at the present time. To get a 4% real rate of return, although it's not as high as 6.5% to 7% that we talked about in stocks, as a guaranteed rate of return is certainly comforting against any inflation."
559:
295:
tends to underperform market averages over long periods. (When he wrote in the late 1990s and early 2000's, index funds were not necessarily available in 401k plans but have become more popular since then.) He is not opposed to holding a small portion of the portfolio in single stocks, provided their
323:
and obtain a broader variety of options. For valuation, Siegel recommends stocks or indexes that are fairly valued or undervalued while avoiding sectors that are overvalued or trendy, as they tend to offer poor long-term results. He calls this phenomenon the "growth trap" and notes that fast-growing
725:
2005: Nicholas
Molodovsky Award by the Chartered Financial Analysts Institute to “those individuals who have made outstanding contributions of such significance as to change the direction of the profession and to raise it to higher standards of accomplishment.”
381:, whom Siegel has known since their MIT graduate school days. Siegel and Shiller have frequently debated each other on TV about the stock market and its future returns, and have become financial media celebrities, regularly appearing on CNBC.
424:"Seven percent per year real returns on stocks is what I find over nearly two centuries. I don't see persuasive reasons why it should be any different from that over the intermediate run. In the short run, it could be almost anything."
700:“Perspectives on the Equity Risk Premium,” Financial Analysts Journal, v. 61 (1), November/December 2005, pp. 61–73 reprinted in Bold Thinking on Investment Management,” Ed., Rodney N. Sullivan, 2005, pages 202-217, CFA Institute
660:“Are Money, Growth and Inflation Related to Government Deficits? Evidence for Ten Industrialized Economies” (with Aris Protopapadakis), Journal of International Money and Finance, 6, March 1987, pp. 31–48.
971:
675:“The Theory of Security Pricing and Market Structure” (with Marshall Blume), Journal of Financial Markets, Institutions, and Instruments, 1 (3), August 1992, pp. 3–58; with a Foreword by Paul Samuelson
991:
303:, international, and valuation. His research found dividend-paying stocks tend to offer superior long-term performance, as they are associated with profitable mature companies that hold up well during
771:
Mcquarrie, Edward F.. “Stocks for the Long Run? Sometimes Yes. Sometimes No.” ERN: Other
Microeconomics: General Equilibrium & Disequilibrium Models of Financial Markets (Topic) (2021): n. pag.
781:
McQuarrie, Edward F., The US Bond Market before 1926: Investor Total Return from 1793, Comparing
Federal, Municipal and Corporate Bonds Part II: 1857 to 1926 (September 12, 2019).
669:“The Equity Premium, Stock and Bond Returns Since 1802,” Financial Analysts Journal, 48(1), January/February 1992, pp. 28–38; winner of the 1992 Graham and Dodd Scroll Award.
981:
881:
327:
Siegel's academic research showing dividend-paying companies tend to offer superior long-term performance with lower risk has influenced the construction of indexes used for
203:
672:“Equity Risk Premia, Corporate Profit Forecasts, and Investor Sentiment around the Stock Crash of October 1987,” Journal of Business, 65 (4), October 1992, pp. 557–70.
792:
657:“Deposit Deregulation and Monetary Policy” (with Anthony Santomero) in Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Volume 24, Spring 1986, pp. 179–224.
254:
155:
406:, 2005), Siegel analyzed 9,000 IPOs between 1968 and 2003 and concluded that IPOs consistently underperformed a small-cap index in nearly four out of five cases.
618:“The Gibson Paradox and Historical Movements in Real Interest Rates,” (with Robert Shiller) Journal of Political Economy, 85 (5), October 1977, pp. 891–907.
703:“The Long Term Returns on the Original S&P 500 Firms,” (with Jeremy Schwartz), Financial Analysts Journal, v. 61 (1), January/February 2006. pp. 18–31.
464:. He also owned about 2% of the company, which was then worth an estimated $ 700 million. This would mean that Siegel's stake equates to about $ 14 million.
920:
976:
956:
579:
860:
694:
The Rise in Stock
Valuations and Future Equity Returns, Lead article, The Journal of Investment Consulting, Vol 5, No. 1, June/July 2002, pp. 9–19
946:
678:“Long Term Characteristics of Income Producing Real Estate” (with Joseph Gyourko), Journal of Real Estate Finance, 11 (1) Spring 1994, pp. 14–22.
284:. Siegel's position on bonds has been disputed, with critics proposing his data is flawed due to use of unreliable information from earlier sources.
615:“Indexation, the Risk-Free Asset, and Capital Market Equilibrium,” (with Jerold Warner) Journal of Finance, 32 (4), September 1977, pp. 1101–8.
624:“Inflation-Induced Distortion in Government and Private Saving Statistics,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 61 (2), April 1979, pp. 83–90.
681:“The Nifty-Fifty Revisited: Do Growth Stocks Ultimately Justify Their Price?” Journal of Portfolio Management, 21 (4), summer 1995, pp. 8–20.
636:“Monetary Stabilization and the Informational Value of Monetary Aggregates,” Journal of Political Economy, 90 (1), February 1982, pp. 176–80.
651:“Money Supply Announcements and Interest Rates: Does Monetary Policy Matter?” Journal of Monetary Economics, 15 (2), March 1985, pp. 163–76.
225:
74:
666:“The Real Rate of Interest from 1800-1990: A Study of the U.S. and the U.K.: Journal of Monetary Economics, 29 (2), April 1992, pp. 227-52.
573:
805:
986:
951:
530:
642:“Technological Change and the Super-Neutrality of Money,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 15 (3), August 1983, pp. 362–7.
627:“Bank Regulation and Macroeconomic Stability” (with Anthony Santomero), American Economic Review, 71 (1), March 1981, pp. 39–53.
612:“Stability and the Keynesian and Classical Macroeconomic Systems,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 2 (2), April 1976, pp. 257–66.
517:
495:
654:“The Application of the DCF Method for Determining the Cost of Capital,” Financial Management, 14 (1), Spring 1985, pp. 46–53.
639:“A General Equilibrium Money and Banking Paradigm” (with Anthony Santomero), Journal of Finance, 37 (2), May 1982, pp. 357–69.
825:
663:“Does It Pay Stock Investors to Forecast the Business Cycle?” Journal of Portfolio Management, 18 (1), Fall 1991, pp. 27–34.
621:“Notes on Optimal Taxation and the Optimal Rate of Inflation,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 4(2), April 1978, pp. 297–305.
522:
966:
175:
697:“What Is an Asset Price Bubble? An Operational Definition,” European Financial Management, Vol. 9 No. 1, 2003, pp. 11–24,
316:
606:“Risk, Interest Rates, and the Forward Exchange,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 86 (2), May 1972, pp. 303–9;
159:
115:
691:“The Shrinking Equity premium,” lead article in The Journal of Portfolio Management, vol. 26, 1, Fall 1999, 10-17.
569:
630:“Inflation, Bank Profits, and Government Seignorage,” American Economic Review, 71 (2), May 1981, pp. 352–5.
378:
395:
299:
For all stocks or investment options, Siegel advise following a "D-I-V" mnemonic as a guideline: prioritizing
908:
485:
320:
154:(born November 14, 1945) is an American economist who is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the
961:
457:
328:
370:
340:
332:
250:
111:
941:
645:“Operational Interest Rate Rules,” American Economic Review, 73 (5), December 1983, pp. 1102–10.
633:“Bank Reserves and Financial Stability,” Journal of Finance, 35 (5), December 1981, pp. 1073–85.
461:
344:
444:". The piece issued warnings against investing in some of the hottest technology stocks during the
357:
207:
183:
139:
64:
508:
648:“The Mortgage Refinancing Decision,” Housing Finance Review, 3 (1), January 1984, pp. 91–7.
905:
where the "Wizard of
Wharton" weighs in on the markets, the economy and investment strategies.
780:
536:
526:
491:
292:
339:
of the late 1990s and early 2000's Siegel became somewhat skeptical of the prevailing use of
211:
366:
312:
216:
428:
That being said, Professor Siegel was correct when he also stated in the same interview:
810:
716:
685:
445:
403:
374:
336:
277:
229:
221:
125:
101:
833:
512:
488:: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies
479:
The Future for
Investors: Why the Tried and the True Triumph Over the Bold and the New
400:
The Future for
Investors: Why the Tried and the True Triumph Over the Bold and the New
935:
319:. Siegel recommends substantial international stock holdings, up to 40-50%, to avoid
847:
416:
233:
129:
609:“Reply,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 89 (1), February, 1975, pp. 173–5.
304:
288:
913:
502:
Revolution on Wall Street: The Rise and
Decline of the New York Stock Exchange
441:
414:
Siegel has been criticized for bullishness on the stock market in 2000. In a
540:
308:
300:
281:
688:), Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11 (1), Winter 1997, pp. 191–200.
228:(MIT) in 1971. As a graduate student he studied under Nobel Prize winners
748:
712:
1994: Best
Business School Professor in worldwide ranking, Business Week
324:
companies, industries or economies are not necessarily good investments.
199:
49:
440:
published an opinion piece by Siegel titled: "Big-Cap Tech Stocks Are a
311:, and are also more likely to be reasonably valued. He has endorsed the
722:
1996, 2005: Helen Kardon Moss Anvil Award for outstanding MBA teaching
195:
45:
916:
Summary of global investing perspectives in "Stocks for the Long Run"
588:
by removing items or incorporating them into the text of the article.
420:
interview in May 2000 when asked about the stock market, he replied:
179:
924:
861:"WisdomTree ETFs Target Earnings, But Can Start-up Turn A Profit?"
287:
For stocks, Siegel recommends relying primarily or exclusively on
206:. He majored in mathematics and economics as an undergraduate at
68:
280:, arguing their long-term performance tends to be negative after
362:
167:
850:. The Wall Street Journal, accessed 27 November 2021 (paywall).
902:
552:
171:
163:
78:
806:"Siegel and Schwartz on Stocks for the Long Run - Bloomberg"
398:, stock sold by new companies, typically disappoint. In his
273:(2005), Siegel outlines his investing theories and advice.
972:
Wharton School of the
University of Pennsylvania faculty
355:
He has been a frequent guest on the business TV program
585:
992:
University of Chicago Booth School of Business faculty
343:
for constructing index funds, and thus helped develop
315:
method, of holding the highest-dividend stocks in the
135:
121:
107:
97:
92:
57:
28:
21:
909:Bloomberg Article: "The Shiller & Siegel Show"
255:Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
684:“Anomalies: The Equity Premium Puzzle” (with
162:. He appears regularly on networks including
8:
982:Massachusetts Institute of Technology alumni
18:
194:Siegel was born into a Jewish family in
848:Big-Cap Tech Stocks Are a Sucker's Bet"
735:
373:. Siegel is also a lifelong friend of
369:. Siegel, like Kudlow, tends to favor
226:Massachusetts Institute of Technology
75:Massachusetts Institute of Technology
7:
793:The Dividends of a Dividend Approach
743:
741:
739:
719:for outstanding university teaching
253:for four years before moving to the
977:Columbia College (New York) alumni
957:University of Pennsylvania faculty
456:As of 2007, Siegel was advisor to
14:
518:Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
174:, and writes regular columns for
947:21st-century American economists
826:"The Great Market Bubble Debate"
557:
523:Library of Economics and Liberty
224:. He obtained a Ph.D. from the
521:(2nd ed.). Indianapolis:
276:He recommends against holding
1:
549:Academic journal publications
317:Dow Jones Industrial Average
210:, graduating in 1967 with a
176:Kiplinger's Personal Finance
1008:
987:21st-century American Jews
952:20th-century American Jews
846:Siegel, Jeremy J. (2000).
160:University of Pennsylvania
116:University of Pennsylvania
379:Yale School of Management
204:Highland Park High School
145:
88:
791:Jeremy Schwartz (2020).
396:Initial Public Offerings
271:The Future for Investors
190:Early life and education
486:Stocks for the Long Run
452:Wealth and shareholding
438:The Wall Street Journal
296:selection is prudent.
267:Stocks for the Long Run
967:Supply-side economists
882:"CFA Institute Awards"
795:. Wisdom Tree Research
490:, McGraw-Hill (1994),
458:WisdomTree Investments
434:
426:
377:, an economist at the
329:WisdomTree Investments
462:exchange-traded funds
430:
422:
394:Siegel has said that
371:supply-side economics
341:market capitalization
333:exchange traded funds
251:University of Chicago
220:, with membership in
202:, and graduated from
112:University of Chicago
830:www.businessweek.com
358:Kudlow & Company
345:fundamental indexing
186:is named after him.
436:On March 14, 2000,
208:Columbia University
152:Jeremy James Siegel
65:Columbia University
753:Finance Department
586:clean up the lists
509:David R. Henderson
291:when possible, as
16:American economist
603:
602:
321:home country bias
293:active management
249:He taught at the
149:
148:
39:November 14, 1945
999:
928:
903:JeremySiegel.com
890:
889:
878:
872:
871:
869:
868:
857:
851:
844:
838:
837:
832:. Archived from
822:
816:
815:
802:
796:
789:
783:
778:
772:
769:
763:
762:
760:
759:
745:
598:
595:
589:
561:
560:
553:
544:
410:2000 bullishness
331:, a provider of
261:Investing advice
212:Bachelor of Arts
184:Siegel's paradox
140:Siegel's paradox
42:
38:
36:
19:
1007:
1006:
1002:
1001:
1000:
998:
997:
996:
932:
931:
921:"Jeremy Siegel"
919:
899:
894:
893:
880:
879:
875:
866:
864:
859:
858:
854:
845:
841:
824:
823:
819:
804:
803:
799:
790:
786:
779:
775:
770:
766:
757:
755:
749:"Jeremy Siegel"
747:
746:
737:
732:
710:
599:
593:
590:
583:
562:
558:
551:
533:
507:
475:
470:
460:, a sponsor of
454:
412:
392:
387:
367:Lawrence Kudlow
353:
313:Dogs of the Dow
263:
247:
242:
217:summa cum laude
192:
128:
114:
93:Academic career
84:
53:
43:
40:
34:
32:
24:
17:
12:
11:
5:
1005:
1003:
995:
994:
989:
984:
979:
974:
969:
964:
959:
954:
949:
944:
934:
933:
930:
929:
917:
911:
906:
898:
897:External links
895:
892:
891:
873:
852:
839:
836:on 2001-02-11.
817:
811:Bloomberg News
797:
784:
773:
764:
734:
733:
731:
728:
717:Lindback Award
709:
706:
705:
704:
701:
698:
695:
692:
689:
686:Richard Thaler
682:
679:
676:
673:
670:
667:
664:
661:
658:
655:
652:
649:
646:
643:
640:
637:
634:
631:
628:
625:
622:
619:
616:
613:
610:
607:
601:
600:
580:embedded lists
574:indiscriminate
565:
563:
556:
550:
547:
546:
545:
532:978-0865976658
531:
513:"Stock Market"
511:, ed. (2008).
505:
499:
482:
474:
471:
469:
466:
453:
450:
446:dot com bubble
411:
408:
404:Crown Business
391:
388:
386:
383:
375:Robert Shiller
352:
349:
337:dot com bubble
262:
259:
246:
243:
241:
238:
230:Paul Samuelson
222:Phi Beta Kappa
191:
188:
156:Wharton School
147:
146:
143:
142:
137:
133:
132:
126:Paul Samuelson
123:
119:
118:
109:
105:
104:
102:Macroeconomics
99:
95:
94:
90:
89:
86:
85:
83:
82:
72:
61:
59:
55:
54:
44:
30:
26:
25:
22:
15:
13:
10:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
1004:
993:
990:
988:
985:
983:
980:
978:
975:
973:
970:
968:
965:
963:
962:Living people
960:
958:
955:
953:
950:
948:
945:
943:
940:
939:
937:
926:
922:
918:
915:
914:EricTyson.com
912:
910:
907:
904:
901:
900:
896:
887:
886:CFA Institute
883:
877:
874:
862:
856:
853:
849:
843:
840:
835:
831:
827:
821:
818:
813:
812:
807:
801:
798:
794:
788:
785:
782:
777:
774:
768:
765:
754:
750:
744:
742:
740:
736:
729:
727:
723:
720:
718:
713:
707:
702:
699:
696:
693:
690:
687:
683:
680:
677:
674:
671:
668:
665:
662:
659:
656:
653:
650:
647:
644:
641:
638:
635:
632:
629:
626:
623:
620:
617:
614:
611:
608:
605:
604:
597:
594:February 2024
587:
581:
577:
575:
571:
566:This section
564:
555:
554:
548:
542:
538:
534:
528:
524:
520:
519:
514:
510:
506:
503:
500:
497:
496:0-07-149470-7
493:
489:
487:
483:
480:
477:
476:
472:
467:
465:
463:
459:
451:
449:
447:
443:
439:
433:
429:
425:
421:
419:
418:
409:
407:
405:
401:
397:
389:
384:
382:
380:
376:
372:
368:
364:
360:
359:
350:
348:
346:
342:
338:
334:
330:
325:
322:
318:
314:
310:
306:
302:
297:
294:
290:
285:
283:
279:
274:
272:
268:
265:In his books
260:
258:
256:
252:
244:
239:
237:
235:
231:
227:
223:
219:
218:
213:
209:
205:
201:
197:
189:
187:
185:
181:
177:
173:
169:
165:
161:
157:
153:
144:
141:
138:
136:Contributions
134:
131:
127:
124:
120:
117:
113:
110:
106:
103:
100:
96:
91:
87:
80:
76:
73:
70:
66:
63:
62:
60:
56:
51:
47:
41:(age 78)
31:
27:
23:Jeremy Siegel
20:
885:
876:
865:. Retrieved
855:
842:
834:the original
829:
820:
809:
800:
787:
776:
767:
756:. Retrieved
752:
724:
721:
714:
711:
591:
584:Please help
568:may contain
567:
516:
501:
484:
478:
468:Bibliography
455:
437:
435:
431:
427:
423:
417:BusinessWeek
415:
413:
399:
393:
365:, hosted by
356:
354:
335:. After the
326:
305:bear markets
298:
286:
275:
270:
266:
264:
248:
234:Robert Solow
215:
193:
151:
150:
130:Robert Solow
108:Institutions
942:1945 births
576:information
351:TV programs
289:index funds
269:(1998) and
936:Categories
867:2007-03-03
758:2020-09-09
570:unverified
442:Sucker Bet
390:IPO debate
385:Criticisms
309:recessions
122:Influences
35:1945-11-14
541:237794267
301:dividends
282:inflation
245:Academics
182:Finance.
58:Education
214:(B.A.),
200:Illinois
50:Illinois
504:(1993).
481:(2005).
196:Chicago
158:of the
46:Chicago
863:. 2007
715:2002:
708:Awards
539:
529:
494:
240:Career
180:Yahoo!
52:, U.S.
925:JSTOR
730:Notes
473:Books
278:bonds
98:Field
537:OCLC
527:ISBN
492:ISBN
363:CNBC
307:and
232:and
178:and
170:and
168:CNBC
29:Born
578:in
572:or
361:on
172:NPR
164:CNN
79:PhD
938::
923:.
884:.
828:.
808:.
751:.
738:^
535:.
525:.
515:.
448:.
347:.
257:.
236:.
198:,
166:,
69:BA
48:,
37:)
927:.
888:.
870:.
814:.
761:.
596:)
592:(
582:.
543:.
498:.
402:(
81:)
77:(
71:)
67:(
33:(
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Additional terms may apply.