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Kessler syndrome

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210:). He discovered this by first identifying those launches that were described as having a large number of objects associated with a payload, then researching the literature to determine the rockets used in the launch. In 1979, this finding resulted in establishment of the NASA Orbital Debris Program after a briefing to NASA senior management, overturning the previously held belief that most unknown debris was from old ASAT tests, not from US upper stage rocket explosions that could seemingly be easily managed by depleting the unused fuel from the upper stage Delta rocket following the payload injection. Beginning in 1986, when it was discovered that other international agencies were possibly experiencing the same type of problem, NASA expanded its program to include international agencies, the first being the European Space Agency. A number of other Delta components in orbit (Delta was a workhorse of the US space program) had not yet exploded. 379: 173: 142:(ASAT) testing, and others were the result of rocket stages blowing up in orbit as leftover propellant expanded and ruptured their tanks. To improve tracking, NORAD employee John Gabbard kept a separate database. Studying the explosions, Gabbard developed a technique for predicting the orbital paths of their products, and Gabbard diagrams (or plots) are now widely used. These studies were used to improve the modeling of orbital evolution and decay. 311:
organizations. The event resulted in at least 700 fragments, with the potential for more than 900. The debris poses a substantial risk to low-Earth orbit constellations, particularly those orbiting below 800 kilometers, and may remain in orbit for years, increasing the likelihood of collisions. This incident highlights ongoing concerns about space debris and the increasing risk of a cascading effect as more objects are launched into orbit.
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Strategic Defense Initiative in the mid-1980s, large structures such as those considered in the late-1970s for building solar power stations in Earth orbit, and anti-satellite warfare using systems tested by the USSR, the US, and China over the past 30 years. Such aggressive activities could set up a situation where a single satellite failure could lead to cascading failures of many satellites in a period much shorter than years.
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in orbit. Some objects (typically, US military spacecraft) were found to be omitted from the NORAD list, and others were not included because they were considered unimportant. The list could not easily account for objects under 20 cm (8 in) in size—in particular, debris from exploding rocket stages and several 1960s anti-satellite tests.
431:(FCC) required all geostationary satellites launched after 18 March 2002 to commit to moving to a graveyard orbit at the end of their operational life. US government regulations similarly require a plan to dispose of satellites after the end of their mission: atmospheric re-entry, movement to a storage orbit, or direct retrieval. 337:. The theoretical cascading Kessler syndrome becomes more likely as satellites in orbit increase in number. As of 2014, there were about 2,000 commercial and government satellites orbiting the Earth, and as of 2021 more than 4000. It is estimated that there are 600,000 pieces of space junk ranging from 1 to 10 cm ( 146:
The Creation of a Debris Belt", demonstrating that the process controlling asteroid evolution would cause a similar collision process in LEO in decades rather than billions of years. They concluded that by about 2000, space debris would outpace micrometeoroids as the primary ablative risk to orbiting spacecraft.
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weather satellites was chosen as the target. The collision occurred at an altitude of 865 kilometres, when the satellite with a mass of 750 kilograms was struck in a head-on-collision by a kinetic payload traveling with a speed of 8 km/s (18,000 mph) in the opposite direction. The resulting
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Kessler's analysis divided the problem into three parts. With a low-enough density, the addition of debris by impacts is slower than their decay rate and the problem is not significant. Beyond that is a critical density, where additional debris leads to additional collisions. At densities beyond this
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program raises concerns about significantly worsening the possibility of Kessler syndrome due to the large number of satellites the program aims to place in LEO, as the program's goal will more than double the satellites currently in LEO. In response to these concerns, SpaceX said that a large part
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Aggressive space activities without adequate safeguards could significantly shorten the time between collisions and produce an intolerable hazard to future spacecraft. Some of the most environmentally dangerous activities in space include large constellations such as those initially proposed by the
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Optical telescopes and short-wavelength radar were used to measure the number and size of space objects, and these measurements demonstrated that the published population count was at least 50% too low. Before this, it was believed that the NORAD database accounted for the majority of large objects
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of Starlink satellites are launched at a lower altitude of 550 km (340 mi) to achieve lower latency (versus 1,150 km (710 mi) as originally planned), and failed satellites or debris are thus expected to deorbit within five years even without propulsion, due to atmospheric drag.
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In 1991, Kessler published "Collisional cascading: The limits of population growth in low Earth orbit" with the best data then available. Citing the USAF conclusions about creation of debris, he wrote that although almost all debris objects (such as paint flecks) were lightweight, most of its mass
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When the NORAD database became publicly available during the 1970s, NASA scientist Donald J. Kessler applied the technique developed for the asteroid-belt study to the database of known objects. In June 1978, Kessler and Burton Cour-Palais co-authored "Collision Frequency of Artificial Satellites:
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off debris from the force of the collision. The fragments can then hit other objects, producing even more space debris: if a large enough collision or explosion were to occur, such as between a space station and a defunct satellite, or as the result of hostile actions in space, then the resulting
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that increases the likelihood of further collisions. In 2009, Kessler wrote that modeling results had concluded that the debris environment was already unstable, "such that any attempt to achieve a growth-free small debris environment by eliminating sources of past debris will likely fail because
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In 2024, Jon Kelvey noted in an overview article that "the scientific community hasn’t yet reached a consensus about whether the Kessler Syndrome has begun, or, if it has not begun, how bad it will be when it starts. There is consensus, however, that the basic concept is sound and that the space
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satellite is a large, inactive satellite with a mass of 8,211 kg (18,102 lb) that orbits at 785 km (488 mi), an altitude where the debris environment is the greatest—two catalogued objects can be expected to pass within about 200 m (660 ft) of Envisat every year—and
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A significant event related to the Kessler Syndrome occurred on August 9, 2024, when a Chinese Long March 6A rocket broke apart in low-Earth orbit, creating a cloud of hundreds of debris fragments. The US Space Command confirmed this breakup and has been tracked by multiple space debris-tracking
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was carried out, in which the Solwind P78-1 satellite flying at an altitude of 555 kilometres was struck by the 14-kilogram payload at a velocity of 24,000 kilometres per hour (15,000 mph; 6.7 km/s). When NASA learned of U.S. Air Force plans for the Solwind ASAT test, they modeled the
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would de-orbit debris faster than it was created. However, Gabbard was aware that the number and type of objects in space were under-represented in the NORAD data and was familiar with their behavior. In an interview shortly after the publication of the 1978 paper, Gabbard coined the term
224:(USAF) conducted an experimental program to determine what would happen if debris collided with satellites or other debris. The study demonstrated that the process differed from micrometeoroid collisions, with large chunks of debris created which would become collision threats. 232:
A 1 kg object impacting at 10 km/s, for example, is probably capable of catastrophically breaking up a 1,000 kg spacecraft if it strikes a high-density element in the spacecraft. In such a breakup, numerous fragments larger than 1 kg would be
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debris cascade could make prospects for long-term viability of satellites in particular low Earth orbits extremely low. However, even a catastrophic Kessler scenario at LEO would pose minimal risk for launches continuing past LEO, or satellites travelling at
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which were recovered were found to be pitted. Each study indicated that the debris flux was higher than expected and debris was the primary source of micrometeoroids and orbital debris collisions in space. LEO already demonstrated the Kessler syndrome.
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satellite by a Russian ASAT missile on November 15, 2021, has created a large debris cloud, with 1500 pieces of debris being tracked and an estimated hundreds of thousands of pieces too small to track. Since the satellite was in a
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to 4 in), and 23,000 larger than that. On average, every year, one satellite is destroyed by collision with other satellites or space junk. As of 2009, there had been four collisions between catalogued objects, including
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was in debris about 1 kg (2 lb 3 oz) or heavier. This mass could destroy a spacecraft on impact, creating more debris in the critical-mass area. According to the National Academy of Sciences:
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fragments from future collisions will be generated faster than atmospheric drag will remove them". One implication is that the distribution of debris in orbit could render space activities and the use of
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predicted in 1960 that "In time, a number of such accidentally too-lucky shots will accumulate in space and will have to be removed when the era of manned space flight arrives". After the launch of
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effects of the test and determined that debris produced by the collision would still be in orbit late into the 1990s. It would force NASA to enhance debris shielding for its planned space station.
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features a Kessler syndrome catastrophe as the inciting incident of the story, when Russia shoots down an old satellite. It was described as "Kessler Syndrome on steroids that defies physics".
407:(GEO). The catastrophic scenarios predict an increase in the number of collisions per year, as opposed to a physically impassable barrier to space exploration that occurs in higher orbits. 655: 1388:
Daquin, J.; Rosengren, A. J.; Alessi, E. M.; Deleflie, F.; Valsecchi, G. B.; Rossi, A. (2016). "The dynamical structure of the MEO region: long-term stability, chaos, and transport".
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reducing the orbiting population to small objects (several centimeters in size) and increasing the hazard of space activity. This chain reaction is known as the Kessler syndrome.
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likely to increase. Don Kessler predicted in 2012 that it could easily become a major debris contributor from a collision during the next 150 years that it will remain in orbit.
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The trackers who fed the database were aware of other objects in orbit, many of which were the result of in-orbit explosions. Some were deliberately caused during the 1960s
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into seven large pieces, the subsequent creation of a cloud of debris by Kessler syndrome collisions, and the eventual bombardment of Earth's surface by lunar meteoroids.
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With enough orbiting debris, pieces will begin to hit other pieces, setting off a chain reaction of destruction that will leave a lethal halo around the Earth.
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Gabbard diagram of almost 300 pieces of debris from the disintegration of the five-month-old third stage of the Chinese Long March 4 booster on 11 March 2000
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drag can gradually bring debris down to lower altitudes where fragments finally re-enter, but this process can take millennia at very high altitudes.
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In 1978, Kessler found that 42 percent of cataloged debris was the result of 19 events, primarily explosions of spent rocket stages (especially US
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and how international law may need to address the problem to help prevent future incidents: Reynolds, G. H. (2009, July). "Collision course".
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Hoots, Felix; Schumacher, Paul Jr.; Glover, Robert A. (2004). "History of Analytical Orbit Modeling in the U.S. Space Surveillance System".
1236: 1853:"Critical Number of Spacecraft in Low Earth Orbit: Using Fragmentation Data to Evaluate the Stability of the Orbital Debris Environment" 1298: 1021:
History of On-Orbit Satellite Fragmentations, 14th Edition published by NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, pages 26 and 386, May 2008
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The lack of hard data about space debris prompted a series of studies to better characterize the LEO environment. In October 1979,
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the deliberate injection into LEO of large numbers of particles as a cheap but effective anti-satellite measure.
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to demonstrate that it can be safely disposed of at the end of its life, for example by use of a controlled
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is numerous enough that collisions between objects could cause a cascade in which each collision generates
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In 1985, the first anti-satellite (ASAT) missile was used in the destruction of a satellite. The American
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with a mean altitude above 850 kilometres, and will likely remain in orbit for decades or centuries.
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provided Kessler with funding for further studies. Several approaches were used by these studies.
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NASA TP-1999-208856 David S.F. Portree and Joseph P. Loftus Jr. "Orbital Debries: A Chronology"
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Theoretical runaway satellite collision cascade that could render parts of Earth orbit unusable
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to refer to the accumulation of debris; it became widely used after its appearance in a 1982
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NASA Astronomy Picture of the Day: Satellites Collide in Low Earth Orbit (18 February 2009)
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article, which won the Aviation-Space Writers Association 1982 National Journalism Award.
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On 11 January 2007, China conducted an anti-satellite missile test in which one of their
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Returned spacecraft were microscopically examined for small impacts, and sections of
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of the remains of the fragment until it would re-enter and be destroyed harmlessly.
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and Burton G. Cour-Palais in 1978, is a scenario in which the density of objects in
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by Glenn Harlan Reynolds discusses the Kessler syndrome in regards to the February
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http://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/library/SatelliteFragHistory/TM-2008-214779.pdf
618: â€“ 1972 treaty that expands on the liability rules in the Outer Space Treaty 460: 326: 291: 286: 172: 1765:"Sources of Orbital Debris and the Projected Environment for Future Spacecraft" 1365: 1340: 2076:
Aggregated public information research on space debris, graveyard orbits, etc.
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is much slower at altitudes where atmospheric drag is insignificant. Slight
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One technology proposed to help deal with fragments from 1 to 10 cm (
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Image made from models used to track debris in Earth orbit as of July 2009
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Designers of a new vehicle or satellite are frequently required by the
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In an early 2009 historical overview, Kessler summed up the situation:
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critical mass production exceeds decay, leading to a cascading
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Proceedings of the Third European Conference on Space Debris
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gets lift at Comic-Con as director Cuaron leaps into space"
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in specific orbital ranges difficult for many generations.
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At the time, it was widely thought that drag from the
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later published modified versions of the database in
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Archived from 651: 584: 579: 578: 570: 565: 564: 563: 458: 457: 453: 392:feedback runaway 360:atmospheric drag 346: 345: 341: 156:Kessler syndrome 151:upper atmosphere 60:ablation cascade 48:Kessler syndrome 21: 2144: 2143: 2139: 2138: 2137: 2135: 2134: 2133: 2129:1978 neologisms 2099: 2098: 2093:Financial Times 2080: 2062: 2053: 2051: 2042: 2030: 2017: 2012:Wayback Machine 1994:Wayback Machine 1977: 1931: 1929: 1919: 1916: 1914:Further reading 1911: 1903:Popular Science 1895: 1885: 1883: 1875: 1865: 1863: 1855: 1850: 1842: 1811: 1806: 1798: 1792:10.2514/3.57828 1767: 1762: 1757:on 15 May 2011. 1754: 1734:(A6): 2637–46. 1723: 1718: 1692: 1663: 1656: 1645: 1640: 1636: 1631: 1621: 1619: 1618:on 13 July 2015 1601: 1600: 1596: 1587: 1585: 1575: 1574: 1570: 1561: 1559: 1550: 1549: 1545: 1536: 1534: 1525: 1524: 1520: 1511: 1509: 1500: 1499: 1492: 1482: 1480: 1471: 1470: 1459: 1450: 1448: 1440: 1439: 1435: 1387: 1386: 1382: 1351:(7721): 24–26. 1338: 1337: 1333: 1325: 1321: 1320: 1316: 1297: 1296: 1289: 1281: 1277: 1276: 1272: 1257: 1252: 1251: 1247: 1228: 1223: 1222: 1218: 1209: 1207: 1199: 1198: 1194: 1185: 1183: 1167: 1166: 1162: 1148: 1147: 1140: 1131: 1129: 1124: 1123: 1116: 1106: 1104: 1099: 1098: 1094: 1084: 1082: 1077: 1076: 1072: 1062: 1060: 1055: 1054: 1050: 1040: 1038: 1033: 1032: 1028: 1020: 1016: 1011: 1007: 999: 995: 987: 980: 972: 968: 959: 957: 950: 935: 934: 930: 922: 918: 910: 906: 898: 894: 886: 879: 874: 873: 869: 861: 857: 838: 837: 833: 825: 821: 807: 806: 802: 797:on 27 May 2010. 788: 787: 762: 754: 723: 718: 717: 708: 699: 697: 686: 685: 681: 672: 670: 653: 652: 648: 644: 639: 580: 573: 566: 561: 559: 556: 537:Neal Stephenson 524: 515: 491: 455: 451: 450: 425:graveyard orbit 413: 376: 343: 339: 338: 323: 317: 308: 263: 257: 218: 170: 161:Popular Science 98: 93: 76:space pollution 72:low Earth orbit 62:), proposed by 40:low Earth orbit 28: 23: 22: 15: 12: 11: 5: 2142: 2140: 2132: 2131: 2126: 2121: 2116: 2111: 2101: 2100: 2097: 2096: 2095:. 8 June 2022. 2086: 2078: 2073: 2060: 2040: 2028: 2015: 2002: 1997: 1984: 1976: 1975:External links 1973: 1972: 1971: 1954: 1937: 1915: 1912: 1910: 1909: 1893: 1873: 1848: 1804: 1760: 1716: 1690: 1686:10.2514/1.9161 1672:(2): 174–185. 1661: 1654: 1637: 1635: 1632: 1630: 1629: 1594: 1568: 1543: 1518: 1490: 1457: 1446:SpaceDaily.com 1433: 1396:(4): 335–366. 1380: 1331: 1314: 1311:on 2008-05-06. 1287: 1270: 1245: 1216: 1192: 1160: 1138: 1114: 1092: 1070: 1048: 1026: 1014: 1005: 993: 978: 966: 948: 928: 916: 904: 892: 867: 855: 831: 819: 800: 760: 757:on 2011-05-15. 706: 679: 645: 643: 640: 638: 637: 631: 625: 619: 613: 607: 601: 595: 590:1961 and 1963 587: 586: 585: 571: 555: 552: 551: 550: 539:'s 2015 novel 534: 527:The 2013 film 523: 520: 514: 513:Current status 511: 490: 487: 412: 409: 375: 372: 331:crewed mission 319:Main article: 316: 313: 307: 304: 259:Main article: 256: 253: 240:chain reaction 217: 214: 169: 166: 97: 94: 92: 89: 52:Kessler effect 26: 24: 18:Kessler effect 14: 13: 10: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 2141: 2130: 2127: 2125: 2124:Space warfare 2122: 2120: 2119:Space hazards 2117: 2115: 2112: 2110: 2107: 2106: 2104: 2094: 2090: 2087: 2083: 2079: 2077: 2074: 2070: 2066: 2061: 2050: 2046: 2041: 2037: 2033: 2029: 2025: 2021: 2016: 2013: 2009: 2006: 2003: 2001: 1998: 1995: 1991: 1988: 1985: 1982: 1979: 1978: 1974: 1969: 1968: 1964:for the film 1963: 1959: 1956:Documentary: 1955: 1952: 1948: 1944: 1943: 1938: 1928:on 2010-05-27 1927: 1923: 1918: 1917: 1913: 1905: 1904: 1899: 1894: 1881: 1880: 1874: 1861: 1854: 1849: 1841: 1837: 1833: 1829: 1825: 1822:(12): 63–66. 1821: 1817: 1810: 1805: 1797: 1793: 1789: 1785: 1781: 1778:(4): 357–60. 1777: 1773: 1766: 1761: 1753: 1749: 1745: 1741: 1737: 1733: 1729: 1722: 1717: 1712: 1708: 1704: 1700: 1696: 1691: 1687: 1683: 1679: 1675: 1671: 1667: 1662: 1657: 1655:0-309-05125-8 1651: 1644: 1639: 1638: 1633: 1617: 1613: 1609: 1607: 1598: 1595: 1583: 1581: 1572: 1569: 1557: 1553: 1547: 1544: 1533: 1529: 1522: 1519: 1508: 1504: 1497: 1495: 1491: 1479: 1475: 1468: 1466: 1464: 1462: 1458: 1447: 1443: 1437: 1434: 1429: 1425: 1421: 1417: 1413: 1409: 1404: 1399: 1395: 1391: 1384: 1381: 1376: 1372: 1367: 1362: 1358: 1354: 1350: 1346: 1342: 1335: 1332: 1324: 1318: 1315: 1310: 1306: 1305: 1300: 1294: 1292: 1288: 1280: 1274: 1271: 1267: 1263: 1256: 1249: 1246: 1242: 1238: 1234: 1227: 1220: 1217: 1206: 1202: 1196: 1193: 1181: 1177: 1176: 1171: 1164: 1161: 1156: 1155:New Scientist 1152: 1145: 1143: 1139: 1127: 1121: 1119: 1115: 1102: 1096: 1093: 1080: 1074: 1071: 1058: 1052: 1049: 1036: 1030: 1027: 1024: 1018: 1015: 1009: 1006: 1002: 1001:Gleghorn 1995 997: 994: 991:, p. 63. 990: 985: 983: 979: 975: 970: 967: 956:on 2011-05-12 955: 951: 949:3-540-25448-X 945: 941: 940: 932: 929: 925: 920: 917: 914:, p. 65. 913: 908: 905: 901: 900:Schefter 1982 896: 893: 885: 878: 871: 868: 865:, p. 48. 864: 863:Schefter 1982 859: 856: 850: 846: 845:CelesTrak BBS 842: 839:Kelso, T. 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Index

Kessler effect

geosynchronous orbit
low Earth orbit
NASA
Donald J. Kessler
low Earth orbit
space pollution
space debris
satellites
Debris graph of altitude and orbital period
Willy Ley
Sputnik 1
North American Aerospace Defense Command
Space Object Catalog
NASA
two-line element set
bulletin board system
anti-satellite weapon
upper atmosphere
Popular Science
Large camera, with a man standing next to it for scale
Baker–Nunn cameras
NASA
Skylab
Apollo Command/Service Module
Delta rockets
United States Air Force
chain reaction
Anti-satellite weapon

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