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of a weapon/target engagement is 30% (or 0.30), then every random number generated that is less than 0.3 is considered a "kill"; every number greater than 0.3 is considered a "no kill". When used many times in a simulation, the average result will be that 30% of the weapon/target engagements will be
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and statistical decisions are required when all of the variables that must be considered are not incorporated into the current model, similar to the actuarial methods used by
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167:". For example, if a weapon is expected to hit a target nine times out of ten with a representative set of ten engagements, one could say that this weapon has a P
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90% of the time (assuming a good shot), the targeting system operates properly 85% of the time, and enemy targets are detected at 50%, accuracy of the P
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generator. This algorithm creates a number between 0 and 1 that is approximately uniformly distributed in that space. If the P
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becomes 0.45 or 45%. This reflects the fact that even modern guided warheads may not always destroy a hit target such as an
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how likely the engagement between a weapon and a target will result in a satisfactory outcome (i.e. "kill"), known as the
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Users can also specify a probability according to a class of targets, for example, it has been stated that the
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of 0.9. If the chance of hits is nine out of ten, but the probability of a kill with a hit is 0.5, then the P
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rely on such calculations to determine the quantity of weapons necessary to destroy an enemy force.
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Handbook of
Simulation: Principles, Methodology, Advances, Applications, and Practice
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to deal with large numbers of customers and huge numbers of variables. Likewise,
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R. Smith and D. Stoner, "Fingers of Death: Algorithms for Combat
Killing",
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Additional factors include the probability of detection (P
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of 0.9 against highly maneuvering targets, whereas its P
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112:programs often require a mechanism to determine
54:but its sources remain unclear because it lacks
151:This measure may also be used to express the
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194:), reliability of the targeting system (R
85:Learn how and when to remove this message
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198:), and reliability of the weapon (R
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242:= 0.9 * 0.5 * 0.85 * 0.90 = 0.344
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139:", is usually based on a uniform
283:Simulation Modeling and Analysis
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292:, John Wiley & Sons, 1998.
135:The probability of kill, or "P
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210:estimation can be increased:
299:, Charles River Media, 2004.
270:Dense inert metal explosive
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281:A.M. Law and W.D. Kelton,
40:This article includes a
297:Game Programming Gems 4
69:more precise citations.
313:Video game terminology
250:surface-to-air missile
318:Gambling mathematics
285:, McGraw Hill, 1991.
122:Performance auditing
288:J. Banks (editor),
126:insurance companies
118:probability of kill
110:operations research
161:probability of hit
42:list of references
130:military planners
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75:July 2024
264:See also
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229:* R
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