Lancet surveys of Iraq War casualties

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three findings give ample guidance towards understanding what must happen to reduce civilian deaths. ... Before publication, the article was critically reviewed by many leading authorities in statistics and public health and their suggestions were incorporated into the paper. The death toll estimated by our study is indeed imprecise, and those interested in international law and historical records should not be content with our study. We encourage Apfelroth and others to improve on our efforts. In the interim, we feel this study, as well as the only other published sample survey we know of on the subject, point to violence from the Coalition Forces as the main cause of death and remind us that the number of Iraqi deaths is certainly many times higher than reported by passive surveillance methods or in press accounts."

359:, MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge CB2 2SR, UK, chair of the Royal Statistical Society's Working Party on Performance Monitoring in the Public Services. Calls scientific method "generally well described and readily repeatable", but says "articular attention is needed to the methodology for randomly selecting the location(s) of cluster(s) within governorates. Roberts and colleagues describe this rather too succinctly". Suggests additional information be included so that more precise multipliers (to obtain the final estimate) can be applied. Discusses an example hypothetical circumstance incorporating said information, regarding airstrike deaths and collateral damage, under which over-counting could occur due to population density variances among cluster representations. 1169:

500,000 death certificates", and notes that the rate of confirmations claimed by the second survey is substantially higher than the rate found in the first survey, despite covering a longer period, and calculates the odds against this to be very high. Spagat further notes several "unlikely patterns in the confirmations of violent deaths through the viewing of death certificates and in the patterns of when death certificates were requested and when they were not requested." His analysis concludes that "there is likely fabrication in the death-certificate data" and that "these data do not give reliable support to very high estimated death rate."

512:"Six hundred thousand or whatever they guessed at is just, it's not credible," Bush said, and he dismissed the methodology as "pretty well discredited." In December , Bush estimated that 30,000 Iraqis had died in the war. Asked at the news conference what he thinks the number is now, Bush said: "I stand by the figure a lot of innocent people have lost their life." At a separate Pentagon briefing, Gen. George Casey, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, said that the figure "seems way, way beyond any number that I have seen. I've not seen a number higher than 50,000. And so I don't give it that much credibility at all." 743:

project, which reported more than 600,000 Iraqi deaths from 2003 to 2006," saying, "AAPOR asked for the kind of information that any scientist doing this type of work should release ... The Bloomberg School will not attempt to evaluate what experts believe is almost certainly a faulty methodology, saying the scientific community should make the evaluation. But then the school advises Burnham not to release details about his methods, so the scientific community can't have the information it needs for a definitive assessment. Sounds like a cop-out and a Catch 22, all rolled into one!

657:. This paper argues that there were several "ethical violations to the survey's respondents", faults the study authors for "non-disclosure of the survey's questionnaire, data-entry form, data matching anonymised interviewer identifications with households and sample design", and presents "evidence relating to data fabrication and falsification, which falls into nine broad categories." The paper concludes that the Lancet survey, "cannot be considered a reliable or valid contribution towards knowledge about the extent of mortality in Iraq since 2003." 229:

violence but nevertheless the result of the conflict through indirect means, such as contamination of water supply or unavailability of medical care. The baseline mortality rate calculated from the interviewees' reports for the period prior to the conflict is subtracted from that reported during the conflict, to estimate the excess mortality which may be attributed to the presence of the conflict, directly or indirectly. This technique has been accepted uncritically in the previous mortality surveys discussed above.

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validated against the two numerical databases used in the study analyses. These numerical databases have been available to outside researchers and provided to them upon request since April 2007. Some minor, ordinary errors in transcription were detected, but they were not of variables that affected the study's primary mortality analysis or causes of death. The review concluded that the data files used in the study accurately reflect the information collected on the original field surveys.

396:: "The government rejected this survey and its estimates as unreliable; in part absurdly because statistical extrapolation from samples was thought invalid. Imprecise they are, but to a known extent. These are unique estimates from a dispassionate survey conducted in the most dangerous of epidemiological conditions. Hence the estimates, as far as they can go, are unlikely to be biased, even allowing for the reinstatement of Falluja. To confuse imprecision with bias is unjustified." 757:

spaces for names of respondents or householders and many such names were collected, in violation of the protocol. The press release said the review did not find evidence that any individual was harmed as a result of these violations, and that no identifiable info was ever out of the possession of the researchers. As a result of their investigation, Hopkins suspended Dr. Burnham's privileges to serve as a principal investigator on projects involving human subjects research.

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as we could on the actual dead bodies, and the number we came up with around June was about at least 50,000. And that kind of jibed with some of the news report that were out there, the accumulation of news reports, in terms of the numbers killed. The U.N. says that there's about 3,000 a month being killed; that also fits in with our numbers and with morgue numbers. This number of 600,000 or more killed since the beginning of the war, it's way off our charts."

236:", dividing the area into a number of randomly selected, approximately equally populated regions; a random point is chosen within each region, and a fixed number of the households closest to that point are surveyed as a "cluster". While not as accurate as an evenly distributed survey of the same number of households, this technique is more accurate than merely surveying one household for each selected point. 273:

coalition forces accounted for most violent deaths." The study estimates that the risk of death specifically from violence in Iraq during the period after the invasion was approximately 58 times higher than in the period before the war, with the CI95 being 8.1–419, meaning that there is a 97.5% chance that the risk of death from violence after the invasion is at least 8.1 times higher than it was before.

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Josh Dougherty argues that the DoD figure is misrepresented: "Burnham and colleagues' assertion that the DoD 'estimated the civilian casualty rate at 117 deaths per day' is mistaken, as is their figure 4, which repeats this error in graphic form. These data refer to Iraqi civilians and security-force personnel, not just to civilians, and to casualties (ie, deaths or injuries), not just deaths."

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debate on critical issues, and undermines the credibility of all survey and public opinion research. These concerns have been at the foundation of AAPOR's standards and professional code throughout our history, and when these principles have clearly been violated, making the public aware of these violations is in integral part of our mission and values as a professional organization.

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adult male population in key urban areas" are some of several reasons why they doubt the study's estimates. IBC states that these consequences would constitute "extreme notions". Later statements in a 2010 article by IBC say that the "hugely exaggerated death toll figures" from the 2006 Lancet report have "been comprehensively discredited" by recently published research.

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Fallujah sample been included, the survey's estimate that mortality rates had increased about 2.5 times since the invasion (with a 95% CI 1.6–4.2) including the Fallujah data would have resulted in an excess of about 298,000 deaths (95% CI ?–?), with 200,000 concentrated in the 3% of Iraq around Fallujah (Roberts et al. p. 5).

134:) were due to violence. 31% (186,318) of those were attributed to the US-led Coalition, 24% (144,246) to others, and 46% (276,472) unknown. The causes of violent deaths were gunshot (56% or 336,575), car bomb (13% or 78,133), other explosion/ordnance (14%), air strike (13% or 78,133), accident (2% or 12,020), and unknown (2%). 494:

death recorded by facility-based methods underestimated events by a factor of ten or more when compared with population-based estimates. Between 1960 and 1990, newspaper accounts of political deaths in Guatemala correctly reported over 50% of deaths in years of low violence but less than 5% in years of highest violence."

256:, where heavy fighting caused far more casualties than elsewhere in Iraq, the study focused mainly on the results that excluded the Fallujah cluster. While the authors argued that the Fallujah cluster's inclusion could be justified as a normal part of the sampling strategy (the authors noted that other "hotspots" like 886:

Middle Eastern nations really do have lower death rates than most European countries, and in fact have lower death rates than 5.5. Jordan's death rate is 4.2, Iran's 5.3, and Syria's 3.5. The reason for the lower rate is simple: Most Middle Eastern nations have much younger populations compared to most Western nations.

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an estimate for the 18-month period following the invasion (March 2003 through September 2004) of 112,000 deaths (95% CI, 69,000–155,000). The authors conclude, "Thus, the data presented here validates our 2004 study, which conservatively estimated an excess mortality of nearly 100,000 as of September, 2004."

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corroborate our findings about the trends in mortality over time." The graph shows that the IBC and DoD data document the rise in cumulative deaths over time (plotted along the "Deaths" axis on the left). Rates for the Lancet are plotted independently using the "Deaths per 1,000 per year" axis on the right.

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claimed the methodology of the study was fundamentally flawed by what they term "main street bias". They claimed the sampling methods used "will result in an over-estimation of the death toll in Iraq" because "by sampling only cross streets which are more accessible, you get an over-estimation of deaths."

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measured picture of her criticisms: "She has some methodological concerns about the paper, including the use of local people—who might have opposed the occupation—as interviewers. She also points out that the result does not fit with any she has recorded in 15 years of studying conflict zones. Even in

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On 14 September 2007, ORB (Opinion Research Business), an independent UK based polling agency, published an estimate of the total casualties of the Iraq war. The figure suggested by ORB, which was based on survey responses from 1,499 adults, stands at 1,220,580 deaths, with a margin of error of 2.5%.

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are members of AAPOR. Tim Parsons, public affairs director of the Bloomberg School wrote in an official statement that the school was "not in a position to comment" on AAPOR's findings because the school is not a member of the organisation and "does not know what procedures or standards were followed

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thinks these numbers are too large, depending on the extensive research we've done. Earlier this year, around June, the report was published at least in June, but the reporting was done over weeks earlier. We went to morgues, cemeteries, hospitals, health officials, and we gathered as many statistics

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report were accurate, e.g. "Half a million death certificates were received by families which were never officially recorded as having been issued" and claims that these "extreme and improbable implications" and "utter failure of local or external agencies to notice and respond to a decimation of the

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The study results show an increasing mortality rate throughout the post-invasion periods, with the excess mortality rate for June 2005–June 2006 of 14.2 (95% CI, 8.6–21.5) being nearly 5.5 times the excess mortality rate for March 2003–April 2004 of 2.6 (95% CI, 0.6–4.7). The 2006 study also provides

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Of 629 deaths verified and recorded among a sample of 1,849 households incorporating some 12,801 people at the time of the survey, 13% took place in the 14 months before the invasion and 87% in the 40 months afterwards. "The study population at the beginning of the recall period (January 1, 2002) was

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The relative risk of death due to the 2003 invasion and occupation was estimated by comparing mortality in the 17.8 months after the invasion with the 14.6 months preceding it. The authors stated, "Making conservative assumptions, we think that about 100,000 excess deaths, or more have happened since

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which provides a generic framework than can be used to assess sampling bias in certain social and biological systems. A special case of the framework can be used to derive the results presented in their Journal of Peace Research paper. The authors also investigate the sensitivity of their results to

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The authors of the main street bias critique published a formal paper on this idea in the Journal of Peace Research. This paper subsequently won the journal's 2008 Article of the Year award. The jury states that the article "provides an important advance in the methodology for estimating the number

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Although there are benefits to registering with the government for a death certificate, there are also disadvantages. Many families who have had someone killed believe that the government or the Americans were involved, and will have wanted to avoid drawing further attention to themselves by filling

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But there are two problems with this calculation. First, Daponte (who has studied Iraqi population figures for many years) questions the finding that prewar mortality was 5 deaths per 1,000. According to quite comprehensive data collected by the United Nations, Iraq's mortality rate from 1980–85 was

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An examination was conducted of all the original data collection forms, numbering over 1,800 forms, which included review by a translator. The original forms have the appearance of authenticity in variation of handwriting, language and manner of completion. The information contained on the forms was

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In February 2009 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health published the results of an internal review of the study. The review found that researchers in the field used data collection forms that were different from those approved in the original protocol. The forms used in the field contained

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A Ministerial Statement written 17 November 2004, by the UK government stated "the Government does not accept its central conclusion", because they were apparently inconsistent with figures published by the Iraq Ministry of Health, based on figures collected by hospitals, which said that "between

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that stated: "I called about ten biostatisticians and mortality experts. Not one of them took issue with the study's methods or its conclusions. If anything, the scientists told me, the authors had been cautious in their estimates. With a quick call to a statistician, reporters would have found that

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In his study of Iraq, Roberts divided the country into 36 regions, attempting to sample 30 households for each cluster, and selecting 988 households, with 7868 residents. In September 2004, each surveyed household was interviewed about household composition, births, and deaths since January 2002. Of

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published on 11 October 2006, estimated 654,965 excess deaths related to the war, or 2.5% of the population, through the end of June 2006. The new study applied similar methods and involved surveys between 20 May and 10 July 2006. More households were surveyed, allowing for a 95% confidence interval

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This UNDP survey covered about 13 months after the invasion. Our first survey recorded almost twice as many violent deaths from the 13th to the 18th months after the invasion as it did during the first 12. The second survey found an excess rate of 2.6/1000/year over the same period corresponding to

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The article's authors defended their research, claiming that their work was the only active study of the death toll, and that this is more accurate than passively counting reported deaths. They cited a number of factors that could lead to smaller figures from other sources; for example, the Islamic

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A letter by Debarati Guha-Sapir, Olivier Degomme and Jon Pedersen argues: "Burnham and colleagues' figure 4, in which cumulated Iraq Body Count deaths parallel their study's mortality rates, is misleading. Rates cannot be compared with numbers, much less with cumulative numbers." A second letter by

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that he does not know exactly how the Iraqi team conducted its survey; the details about neighbourhoods surveyed were destroyed "in case they fell into the wrong hands and could increase the risks to residents." These explanations have infuriated the study's critics. Michael Spagat, who specialises

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paper indicates that the survey team avoided small back alleys for safety reasons. But this could bias the data because deaths from car bombs, street-market explosions, and shootings from vehicles should be more likely on larger streets. Burnham counters that such streets were included and that the

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Kaplan claims that the rate was really 10, according to U.N. figures. He wrote, 'f Iraq's pre-invasion rate really was 5.5 per 1,000, it was lower than almost every country in the Middle East, and many countries in Europe.' This is just wrong! If Kaplan had checked the U.N. death-rate figures, most

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in Brussels, was quoted in an interview for Nature.com saying that Burnham's team have published "inflated" numbers that "discredit" the process of estimating death counts. "Why are they doing this?" she asks. "It's because of the elections.". However, another interviewer a week later paints a more

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estimates, as "not unexpected", stating that this is a common occurrence in conflict situations. They stated, "Aside from Bosnia, we can find no conflict situation where passive surveillance recorded more than 20% of the deaths measured by population-based methods. In several outbreaks, disease and

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The survey was conducted between May 20 and July 10 by eight Iraqi physicians organized through Mustansiriya University in Baghdad. They visited 1,849 randomly selected households that had an average of seven members each. One person in each household was asked about deaths in the 14 months before

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The results of the study were politically sensitive, since a heavy death toll could raise questions regarding the humanitarian justifications on the eve of a contested US presidential election. Critics objected to the timing of the report, claiming it was hastily prepared and published despite what

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study have pointed out other difficulties in obtaining accurate statistics in a war zone. The authors of the study readily acknowledge this point and note the problems in the paper; for example they state that "there can be a dramatic clustering of deaths in wars where many die from bombings". They

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The most common causes of death before the invasion of Iraq were heart attacks, strokes and other chronic diseases. However, after the invasion, violence was recorded as the primary cause of death and was mainly attributed to coalition forces—with about 95 percent of those deaths caused by bombs or

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Working for the U.N. Development Program , the highly regarded Norwegian researcher Jon Pederson led a survey that recorded between 18,000 and 29,000 violent deaths during the first year of occupation. The survey was not focused on deaths, but asked about them over the course of lengthy interviews

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authors replied, "Josh Dougherty and Debarati Guha-Sapir and colleagues all point out that figure 4 of our report mixes rates and counts, creating a confusing image. We find this criticism valid and accept this as an error on our part. Moreover, Dougherty rightly points out that the data in the US

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study authors "would imply that officials in Iraq have issued approximately 550,000 death certificates for violent deaths (92% of 601,000). Yet in June 2006, the total figure of post-war violent deaths known to the Iraqi Ministry of Health (MoH), combined with the Baghdad morgue, was approximately

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article lists those rates as 2.6, 5.6, and 14.2. Why the excess mortality rate for June 2005 to June 2006 is listed as 14.2 instead of 14.3 May be due to how rounding was done. The overall excess mortality rate for the whole post-invasion survey period is listed as 7.8 deaths/1000/year in Table 3.

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Based on the household surveys, the report estimates that, just before the war, Iraq's mortality rate was 5.5 per 1,000. (That is, for every 1,000 people, 5.5 die each year.) The results also show that, in the three and a half years since the war began, this rate has shot up to 13.3 per 1,000. So,

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Mr. Moore did not question our methodology, but rather the number of clusters we used to develop a representative sample. Our study used 47 randomly selected clusters of 40 households each. In his critique, Mr. Moore did not note that our survey sample included 12,801 people living in 47 clusters,

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We are aware that, in taking this action, you have subjected yourselves to some criticism. On behalf of the American Statistical Association, we wish to recognize AAPOR for following procedure and acting professionally on such a difficult and divisive matter. In so doing, you eloquently express by

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despite this imprecision. These findings include: a higher death rate after the invasion; a 58-fold increase in death from violence, making it the main cause of death; and most violent deaths being caused by air-strikes from Coalition Forces. Whether the true death toll is 90,000 or 150,000, these

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stated "I emailed it in on Sept. 30 under the condition that it came out before the election. My motive in doing that was not to skew the election. My motive was that if this came out during the campaign, both candidates would be forced to pledge to protect civilian lives in Iraq. I was opposed to

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study. Besides the admitted IBC undercount due to its media reliance, some of the difference between the Lancet and IBC estimates is explained by the fact that the Lancet study was estimating all "excess" deaths from any and all violent and nonviolent causes, and includes combatants and civilians

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Death certificates, which are needed in order to obtain retirement benefits for a person's surviving spouse or children, as well as for inheritance purposes, are issued by the MoH Births/Deaths Administrative Offices which are located in Public Hospitals. Death certificates are usually issued the

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In a telephone interview, Jon Pedersen, research director for the 2004 study, said several factors probably account for researchers' different findings. One key issue is how researchers extrapolate from the deaths identified in their field research to a death toll for the whole country. Pedersen

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Beth Osborne Daponte, a demographer known for producing death estimates for the first Gulf War, evaluates the Lancet survey and other sources in a paper for the International Review of the Red Cross. Among other criticisms, Daponte questions the reliability of pre-war estimates used in the Lancet

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Only 47 of the sought 50 clusters were included in this analysis. On two occasions, miscommunication resulted in clusters not being visited in Muthanna and Dahuk, and instead being included in other Governorates. In Wassit, insecurity caused the team to choose the next nearest population area, in

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The research team of Professors Neil Johnson, Sean Gourley and J.P. Onella of the physics department at Oxford University, Professor Michael Spagat of the economics department of Royal Holloway, University of London, and Professor Gesine Reinert of the statistics department at Oxford University,

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investigation... Burnham has sent his data and methods to other researchers, who found it sufficient. A spokesman for the Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins, where Burnham works, says the school advised him not to send his data to AAPOR, as the group has no authority to judge the

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When researchers draw important conclusions and make public statements and arguments based on survey research data, then subsequently refuse to answer even basic questions about how their research was conducted, this violates the fundamental standards of science, seriously undermines open public

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interview, study co-author Les Roberts defended the methodology by noting that the method is the standard used in poor countries. He also said that the same method was used by the US government following wars in Kosovo and Afghanistan. Roberts also said that the US government's Smart Initiative

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article is in "monitoring trends over time," which show increased deaths from 3 mortality different mortality estimates. Results from other studies track results from the Lancet surveys. The graph states, "the similar patterns of mortality over time documented in our survey and by other sources

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in the UK, says she "simply cannot believe" the paper's claim that 40 consecutive houses were surveyed in a single day. "There is simply not enough time in the day," she says, "so I have to conclude that something else is going on for at least some of these interviews." Households may have been

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and research director for the ILCS survey, which estimated approximately 24,000 (95% CI 18,000–29,000) war-related deaths in Iraq up to April 2004, expressed reservations about the low pre-war mortality rate used in the Lancet study and about the ability of its authors to oversee the interviews

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mortality by personal surveys of a sample of the households in the area under study; this method being chosen in order to avoid the under-counting inherent in using only reported deaths in areas so chaotic that many deaths are unreported, and to include those deaths not directly attributable to

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Bohannon defended his comments as accurate, citing Burnham saying, in response to questions about why details of selecting "residential streets that did not cross the main avenues", that "in trying to shorten the paper from its original very large size, this bit got chopped, unfortunately." In

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In a peer-reviewed paper on the Lancet survey, economist Michael Spagat examined the death certificate data. He noted that the very high reported rate of death certificates by the survey "implies that the official death certificate system has issued, but failed to record the issuance of, about

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In Iraq in 2004, the surveys took about twice as long and it usually took a two-person team about three hours to interview a 30-house cluster. I remember one rural cluster that took about six hours and we got back after dark. Nonetheless, Dr. Hicks' concerns are not valid as many days one team

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UN-sponsored studies taken after 2003 revealed that the previous childhood mortality figures for South/Central Iraq (supplied by Saddam's government) were inflated by more than a factor of two and that the childhood mortality rate in those regions was even lower than the rate in northern Iraq.

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STONEWALLING/COVERUP" award in iMediaEthics' 2010 Top Ten "Dubious Polling" Awards, based largely on the AAPOR censure. The authors David W. Moore and George F. Bishop, write that Bloomberg and Burnham received the award, "for stonewalling in the face of serious questions about a flawed survey

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26 March 2005. Criticism by Stephen Apfelroth, Department of Pathology, Albert Einstein College of Medicine. Criticizes "several questionable sampling techniques that should have been more thoroughly examined before publication" and lists several flaws, including a "fatal" one, that "In such a

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would be the main cause of these violent deaths if Fallujah data were included. The study concluded that: "Violent deaths were widespread, reported in 15 of 33 clusters, and were mainly attributed to coalition forces." and "Violence accounted for most of the excess deaths and air strikes from

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The main debate in the media in the U.S. and UK focused on whether 98,000 (95% CI 8000–194,000) more Iraqis died as a result of coalition intervention, calculated from their estimate of an increased mortality of 1.5 times (95% CI 1.1–2.3) the prewar rate (excluding the Fallujah data). Had the

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survey, Dr. Gilbert Burnham, had violated the Association's Code of Professional Ethics & Practices for repeatedly refusing to disclose essential facts about his research. "Dr. Burnham provided only partial information and explicitly refused to provide complete information about the basic

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and U.N. pre-invasion mortality rates is 3.5 deaths/1,000/year. The Lancet study used the number of 26,112,353 (from Lancet supplement) as the population of Iraq. 3.5 times 26,112 equals 91,392. So 3.5 deaths/1,000/year means around 91,400 deaths in one year in a population of 26.1 million.

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AAPOR subsequently released a more detailed list of eight specific pieces of information Burnham failed to disclose after repeated requests. These include a copy of the survey questionnaire in all languages into which it was translated, the consent statement, information of sample selection

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The US Congress should agree: in June this year they unanimously passed a bill outlining financial and political measures to promote relief, security and democracy in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The bill was based in part on the veracity of a survey conducted by the Burnet Institute

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The ILCS data has been derived from a question posed to households concerning missing and dead persons during the two years prior to the survey. Although the date was not asked for, it is reasonable to suppose that the vast majority of deaths due to warfare occurred after the beginning of

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We estimate that between March 18, 2003, and June, 2006, an additional 654,965 (392,979–942,636) Iraqis have died above what would have been expected on the basis of the pre-invasion crude mortality rate as a consequence of the coalition invasion. Of these deaths, we estimate that 601,027

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noted that the Lancet study is based on a pre-invasion mortality rate of 5.5 deaths per thousand people . The U.N., he said, used the figure of 9 deaths per thousand. Extrapolating from the lower pre-invasion mortality rate would yield a greater increase in post-invasion deaths, he noted.

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78 households where members were asked to show documentation to confirm their claims after the interview was finished, 63 were able to present death certificates. According to the authors, 5 (0.5%) of the 988 households that were randomly chosen to be surveyed refused to be interviewed.

1381:(Melbourne) and the International Rescue Committee (New York) that found 3.9 million Congolese had perished because of the conflict. This survey used the same methodology as Burnham and his associates. It also passed the scrutiny of a UK parliamentary delegation and the European Union. 478:: "Gunshot wounds caused 56 percent of violent deaths, with car bombs and other explosions causing 14 percent, according to the survey results. Of the violent deaths that occurred after the invasion, 31 percent were caused by coalition forces or airstrikes, the respondents said." 863:

the 'excess deaths' amount to 7.8 (13.3 minus 5.5) per 1,000. They extrapolate from this figure to reach their estimate of 655,000 deaths. However, according to data from the United Nations, based on surveys taken at the time, Iraq's preinvasion mortality rate was 10 per 1,000.

524:, who had called the study "robust" and its claimed methods "close to 'best practice' in this area, given the difficulties of data collection and verification in the present circumstances in Iraq", in an internal memo on the day the study was published, dated 13 October 2006. 1424:(IBC) records civilian deaths reported by English-language media, including all civilian deaths due to coalition military action, the insurgency or increased criminal violence. The IBC site states: "many deaths will likely go unreported or unrecorded by officials and media." 581:] violent deaths per day that the Johns Hopkins team estimates are occurring in Iraq. But overall Guha-Sapir says the paper contains the best data yet on the mortality rate in Iraq." A subsequent article co-authored by Guha-Sapir and Olivier Degomme for CRED reviews the 440:

accordance with the study protocol. Later it was discovered that this second site was actually across the boundary in Baghdad Governorate. These three misattributed clusters were therefore excluded, leaving a final sample of 1849 households in 47 randomly selected clusters.

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supplement: "Mortality projections were applied to the 2004 mid-year population estimates (26,112,353) of the surveyed areas (which exclude the governorates of Muthanna and Dahuk, which had been omitted through misattribution) to establish the mortality projections."

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On 28 January 2008, ORB published an update based on additional work carried out in rural areas of Iraq. Some 600 additional interviews were undertaken and as a result of this the death estimate was revised to 1,033,000 with a given range of 946,000 to 1,120,000.

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In July , for example, the Ministry of Health reported exactly zero violent deaths in Anbar Province, in spite of the contradictory evidence we saw on our televisions. Is that a surveillance network on which our understanding of what is going on in Iraq can

705:, said "There is no direct evidence that the latest attack on Burnham is politically motivated," but the APPOR's stated purpose, "to ensure survey-based research meets high standards," has itself "been questioned by experts." which MacKnenzie does not name. 1524:

Besides the comparisons made in various publications, and in previous sections here, there are also more comparisons and criticisms of both studies in the relevant sections of the above-linked articles. In particular see the "Undercounting" section at

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had not ended up being surveyed), and the authors presented two sets of results in some cases (one set including the Fallujah data and one not), the article, and most press coverage of the article, stresses the data that excluded the Fallujah cluster.

1563:. This paper "finds fundamental flaws in the data underpinning ORB's estimate", and concludes that the ORB data "are not suitable for deriving any credible estimate but, given proper scrutiny, it is clear that ORB has overestimated by a wide margin." 1495:

The ILCS asked about deaths during the course of a lengthy interview on the household's living conditions. In the 3 main ILCS documents (in pdf form) all the war-related deaths info is in 6 paragraphs on page 54 of the analytical report. It states:

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The 2000 BBC article also reported, "However, it found that infant and child mortality in the autonomous, mainly Kurd region in the North of the country, has actually fallen, perhaps reflecting the more favourable distribution of aid in that area."

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8.1 per 1,000. From 1985–90, the years leading up to the 1991 Gulf War, the rate declined to 6.8 per 1,000. After '91, the numbers are murkier, but clearly they went up. Whatever they were in 2002, they were almost certainly higher than 5 per 1,000.

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paper say that the survey team avoided small back alleys", and that "The methods section of the paper was modified with the suggestions of peer reviewers and the editorial staff. At no time did Burnham describe it to Bohannon as 'oversimplified'."

536:(IBC), who compiles a database of reported civilian deaths, has criticised the Lancet's estimate of 601,000 violent deaths out of the Lancet estimate of 654,965 total excess deaths related to the war. An October 2006 article by IBC argues that the 326:" however, the authors of the study say that they never substituted different, more accessible, areas, and that every place that was randomly selected at the beginning of the study was surveyed in full, despite the risk of death to the surveyors. 1069:

study claims that, "Survey teams asked for death certificates in 545 (87%) reported deaths and these were present in 501 cases. The pattern of deaths in households without death certificates was no different from those with certificates."

1470:

that focused on access to services. While this was more than twice the rate recorded by IBC at the time, Pederson expressed concern for the completeness and quality of the data in a newspaper interview last year. The surveys reported in

1347:

Ronald Waldman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University who worked at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for many years, called the survey method "tried and true," and added that "this is the best estimate of mortality we

472:) and in the post-invasion period was 13.3 (95% CI, 10.9–16.1). Excess mortality rate over the pre-invasion period was therefore 7.8 per 1,000 population per year, with violent death accounting for 92% of the increased mortality rate. 1616:" They defended the results of their survey saying, "It is unlikely that a small survey with only 47 clusters has provided a more accurate estimate of violence-related mortality than a much larger survey sampling of 971 clusters." 1257:

of casualties in civil wars," and that, "the authors show convincingly that previous studies which are based on a cross-street cluster-sampling algorithm (CSSA) have significantly overestimated the number of casualties in Iraq."

917:

For the purpose of analysis, the 40 months of survey data were divided into three equal periods—March 2003 to April 2004; May 2004 to May 2005, and June 2005 to June 2006. Following the invasion the death rate rose each year.

560:

properly as they were conducted throughout Iraq. Pedersen has been quoted saying he thinks the Lancet numbers are "high, and probably way too high. I would accept something in the vicinity of 100,000 but 600,000 is too much."

1365:"Over the last 25 years, this sort of methodology has been used more and more often, especially by relief agencies in times of emergency," said Dr. David Rush, a professor and epidemiologist at Tufts University in Boston. 809:

which is the equivalent to a survey of 3,700 randomly selected individuals. As a comparison, a 3,700-person survey is nearly 3 times larger than the average U.S. political survey that reports a margin of error of +/-3%.

1265:

the underlying model parameter values. They reiterate their view that a more precise determination of the model parameters and, hence, the extent of sampling bias, is possible only if the actual micro-level data of the

977:

were imposed by the UN in 1990, infant mortality had "fallen to 47 per 1,000 live births between 1984 and 1989. This compares to approximately 7 per 1,000 in the UK." The BBC article was reporting from a study of the

995:, "They found that in south and central Iraq, infant mortality had risen to 108 per 1,000 between 1994 and 1999, while child mortality—covering those between one and five years—rocketed from 56 to 131 per 1,000." 4325: 1358:, published on 21 October 2006, 27 epidemiologists and health professionals defended the methods of the study, writing that the study's "methodology is sound and its conclusions should be taken seriously." 141:

surveys are higher than in several other reports, including those of the Iraqi Health Ministry and the United Nations, as well as other household surveys such as the Iraq Living Conditions Survey and the

641:

gave a similar view in November 2006: "Since three and a half years, since the change of the Saddam regime, some people say we have 600,000 are killed. This is an exaggerated number. I think 150 is OK."

1548:

This estimate, although conducted independently, and using a different polling methodology, is consistent with the Lancet findings if accounting for the additional 14 months covered by the ORB poll.

1253:

addition, the details which were destroyed refer to the "scraps" of paper on which streets and addresses were written to "randomly" choose households. The data set is now being selectively released.

334:

also said that the data their projections were based on were of "limited precision" because the quality of the information depended on the accuracy of the household interviews used for the study.

1036:

Others had suggested that it was impossible for 40 households to be surveyed in one day—but in fact the researchers were split into two teams and conducted 20 household interviews each, he said.

1595:

results were, "highly improbable, given the internal and external consistency of the data and the much larger sample size and quality-control measures taken in the implementation of the IFHS."

1233:

in civil conflicts, says the scientific community should call for an in-depth investigation into the researchers' procedures. "It is almost a crime to let it go unchallenged," adds Johnson.

906:

article: "The striking similarity between the 2004 and 2006 estimates of pre-war mortality diminishes concerns about people's ability to recall deaths accurately over a 4-year period."

3789:

Onnela, Jukka-Pekka; Johnson, Neil F.; Gourley, Sean; Reinert, Gesine; Spagat, Michael (2008). "Sampling bias in systems with structural heterogeneity and limited internal diffusion".

718:

According to MacKenzie, "Burnham's complete data, including details of households, is available to bona fide researchers on request." She further noted that the AAPOR's own journal,

544:

2004 (ILCS), using a comparable method but a considerably better-distributed and much larger sample." IBC also enumerates several "shocking implications" which would be true if the

637:

estimate also drew criticism from the Iraqi government. Government spokesman Ali Debbagh said, "This figure, which in reality has no basis, is exaggerated". Iraq's Health Minister

431:

the invasion and in the period after. The interviewers asked for death certificates 87 percent of the time; when they did, more than 90 percent of households produced certificates.

2219: 1289:

journal challenged this graph as erroneous and misleading, and the authors of the study conceded these problems, saying that they intended to illustrate their similar escalation.

4535: 3218: 567: 1486:

study author Les Roberts compares the number of violent deaths found in the UNDP survey and in the 2 Lancet surveys through the first year after the invasion (by April 2004):

1159:

findings, noting that Iraqis often bury their dead on the same day, and thus don't require a death certificate, and also may not report it for fear of reprisals by militias:

601:

study to derive its "excess deaths" estimate, and the ethical approval for the survey. She concludes that the most reliable information available to date is provided by the

2672: 448:

authors based their calculations on an overall, post-invasion, excess mortality rate of 7.8/1000/year. "Pre-invasion mortality rates were 5.5 per 1000 people per year (95%

311:

the probability forms a bell curve—the likelihood is very small that the number of deaths fell at either extreme of the range. It was very likely to fall near the middle."

939:

The difference between the pre-invasion mortality rate and the different mortality rates after the invasion are the excess mortality rates for each period. Table 3 in the

1587:

surveyed 9,345 households across Iraq and estimated 151,000 deaths due to violence (95% uncertainty range, 104,000 to 223,000) over the same period covered in the second

902:

Even though the 2004 and 2006 Lancet studies interviewed different sets of households across Iraq, they came up with the same 2002 pre-war mortality rate. From the 2006

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study is somewhat larger than the first (it used 47 clusters instead of 33, and had a lower sampling rate). The 2004 Lancet study surveyed 988 households, and the 2006

670: 1373:, Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology in the University of Oxford, described the 2006 report as "statistically valid" in an interview on BBC television. 4504: 4470: 4412: 3721: 3224: 3165: 2112: 979: 899:

The above-mentioned U.N. "pre-invasion mortality rate" of 9 deaths/1,000/year is more than either the 2002 or 2003 mortality rates measured by both Lancet studies.

692: 91:

caused by the occupation, both direct (combatants plus non-combatants) and indirect (due to increased lawlessness, degraded infrastructure, poor healthcare, etc.).

1361:

A Reuters article reports on other researchers, epidemiologists, professors, and physicians who have defended the study. For example; this quote from the article;

3644: 1612:

included only 8.2% of deaths from nonviolent causes, so inclusion of these deaths will not increase the agreement between the estimates from the IFHS and Burnham

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Department of Defense source were casualties, not deaths alone... We wanted to show that the three sources all similarly pointed to an escalating conflict."

1297:

survey of Iraq War mortality, showing a comparison of 3 mortality estimates. Two letters subsequently published in the Lancet journal challenged this graph.

1080:

study author Les Roberts reported that, "90 percent of the people we interviewed had death certificates. We're quite sure they didn't make these deaths up."

1202:

paper. The notion 'that we avoided back alleys was totally untrue'. He added that 28% of households were in rural areas—which matches the population spread.

2794: 1940:. By Gilbert Burnham, Shannon Doocy, Elizabeth Dzeng, Riyadh Lafta, and Les Roberts. A supplement to the October 2006 Lancet study. It is also found here: 248:" is the exclusion of data from Fallujah in many of its findings. Since interpreting the results of the study would be complicated by the inclusion of an 1974: 1809: 1278: 1216:

describes some of the criticisms, as well as some responses from the Lancet report's lead author Gilbert Burnham. According to Bohannon and Johnson, the

4397: 3051: 4500: 1404:, a peer-reviewed journal; their conclusion is that the Lancet "studies provided the most rigorous methodology as their primary outcome was mortality. 854:

article Fred Kaplan wrote that the pre-invasion death rate calculated by the 2006 Lancet report authors was also too low. This he said would cause the

4360: 2848: 1591:

survey by Burnham et al. The NEJM article stated that the second Lancet survey "considerably overestimated the number of violent deaths" and said the

389:

also wrote an article discussing the differences in the survey's reception in the popular press over how it was received in the scientific community.

197:

team was chosen for their experience in estimating total mortality in war zones, for example his estimate of 1.7 million deaths due to the war in the

1942: 4184: 696:

in reaching the decision regarding this study." Parsons also noted that the school was nearing completion of its own investigation into the study.

4239: 3025: 2071: 1602:

attributing most of the post-war excess deaths to violence, while only one-third of the excess deaths would be due to violence in the IFHS. See:

1465:

Lancet authors draw a different kind of comparison. From Appendix C of the 2006 Lancet study supplement there is this concerning the ILCS study:

1332:

program is spending millions of dollars per year teaching NGOs and UN workers how to use the same cluster method for estimating mortality rates.

1062:

Of the 1849 households that completed the survey there were reports of 629 deaths during the study period from 1 January 2002 through June 2006.

1777: 468:

The study concluded that the mortality rate per 1,000 population per year in the pre-invasion period was 5.5 (range of 4.3–7.1, using a 95% CI,

801:, Moore wrote, "I wouldn't survey a junior high school, no less an entire country, using only 47 cluster points. Neither would anyone else..." 4466: 4429: 3969: 3117: 107: 3652: 517: 3196: 4454: 268:

According to the article, violence was responsible for most of the extra deaths whether or not the Fallujah data was excluded. Coalition

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were focused solely on recording deaths and count about two and a half times as many excess deaths from all causes over the same period.

678:

elements of his research," said Mary Losch, chair of the association's Standards Committee. AAPOR's President, Richard A. Kulka, added:

490: 2052: 4540: 4401: 4211: 2266: 2241: 1446:

IBC illustrated several of what it calls "the main data that are relevant to a comparative assessment of" the ILCS study and the 2004

783: 17: 1336:

requirement that bodies be buried within 24 hours of death. They claim that the sources of bias in their study push the figure down.

122:. If the Fallujah cluster were included, the mortality estimate would increase to 150% over pre-invasion rates (95% CI: 1.6 to 4.2). 4258: 3100: 2179: 1692: 1631: 1542: 385: 300: 170: 147: 4040: 2196: 1491:

approximately 70,000 deaths by April 2004. Thus, the rates of violent death recorded in the two survey groups are not so divergent.

417:

If accurate, these figures would imply the death of an average 500 people per day, or 2.5% of Iraq's population during the period.

158:

and statisticians, and been met by criticism and disbelief from other journalists, governments, epidemiologists and statisticians.

3389: 4061:

Tapp, Christine; Frederick, M. Burkle Jr.; Wilson, Kumanan; Takaro, Tim; Guyatt, Gordon H.; Amad, Hani; Mills, Edward J. (2008).

2874: 2669: 726: 213:

pledging an additional $ 10 million in aid. Similar studies have been accepted uncritically as estimates of wartime mortality in

198: 2924: 1181:

These professors have published a detailed paper discussing this bias and the Lancet study called "Conflict Mortality Surveys".

4478: 2826: 2090: 1583: 775: 575:, where armed groups have wiped out whole villages, she says that researchers have not recorded the 500 predominately [ 3767: 1850: 1285:

survey of Iraqi mortality, showing a comparison with two other mortality estimates. Two letters subsequently published in the

722:, "published an analysis of Burnham's Iraq survey by David Marker of Westat, a consultancy in Maryland that designs surveys." 232:

Because of the impracticality of carrying out an evenly distributed survey, particularly during a war, Roberts' surveys use "

1529:

which lists many examples of how the media, hospitals, morgues, government, etc. miss some of the deaths caused by the war.

589:

overestimated deaths and that the war-related death toll was most likely to be around 125,000 for the period covered by the

4267: 3713: 87:. The first was published in 2004; the second (by many of the same authors) in 2006. The studies estimate the number of 4520: 4474: 4330: 3591: 1998: 878: 367: 339: 194: 3641: 1559:

paper called "Conflict Deaths in Iraq: A Methodological Critique of the ORB Survey Estimate", published in the journal

966:, economist Michael Spagat says there is a perplexing finding in the 2006 Lancet report that child deaths have fallen. 343:

the war and I still think that the war was a bad idea, but I think that our science has transcended our perspectives."

201:

which not only met with widespread acceptance and no challenge when published in 2000, but resulted and was cited in a

4441: 4117: 622: 452:

4.3–7.1), compared with 13.3 per 1000 people per year (10.9–16.1) in the 40 months post-invasion." See Table 3 in the

363:

situation, multiple random sample points are required within each geographic region, not one per 739,000 individuals."

1670: 1663: 649:

entitled "Ethical and Data-Integrity Problems in the Second Lancet Survey of Mortality in Iraq" was published in the

181:, United States (authors L Roberts PhD, G Burnham MD) and the Department of Community Medicine, College of Medicine, 4408: 4015: 3441: 2561: 1019:"prepared by someone, made ready for rapid reporting," she says, which "raises the issue of bias being introduced." 699:

At least one article has been written critical of AAPOR's decision to censure Burnham. Debora MacKenzie, writing in

3563: 3145: 2205: 1625: 1519: 541: 306: 182: 4430:"Co-Author of Medical Study Estimating 650,000 Iraqi Deaths Defends Research in the Face of White House Dismissal" 3970:"Co-Author of Medical Study Estimating 650,000 Iraqi Deaths Defends Research in the Face of White House Dismissal" 322:

study authors were unable to visit certain randomly selected sample areas. In an interview on the radio program "

98:

published on 29 October 2004, estimated 98,000 excess Iraqi deaths (with a range of 8,000 to 194,000, using a 95%

4243: 2639: 2512: 1636: 1603: 1576: 1400:

A review of a variety of mortality estimates for Iraq was made by a group of scientists and published in 2008 in

602: 516:

The UK government, too, rejected the researchers' conclusions. In doing so, it did not mention the advice of the

143: 2801: 2994: 2271: 818: 521: 167: 1775:, 29 October 2004. There is a version of the PDF article that has a clickable table of contents. It is here: 1718: 1015: 485:

The authors described the fact that their estimate is over ten times higher than other estimates, such as the

3161: 3058: 1608:

The authors of the IFHS report have disputed this conclusion, saying, "The excess deaths reported by Burnham

1198:

But Prof Burnham said the researchers penetrated much further into residential areas than was clear from the

114:

to that time, or about 50% higher than the death rate prior to the invasion. The authors described this as a

4171: 3934:

Burnham, Gilbert; Lafta, Riyadh; Doocy, Shannon; Roberts, Les (2007). "Mortality in Iraq – Authors' reply".

3580: 3241: 2586: 2565: 2517: 1949: 1560: 1515: 1421: 1084: 540:

estimate is suspect "because of a very different conclusion reached by another random household survey, the

533: 504: 486: 46: 42: 4167: 4151: 1443:

having overestimated, citing the lower estimate from the UNDP's 2004 Iraq Living Conditions Survey (ILCS).

1277: 465:

calculated to be 11 956, and a total of 1474 births and 629 deaths were reported during the study period."

4530: 3412: 218: 88: 2852: 2513:"Critics say 600,000 Iraqi dead doesn't tally. But pollsters defend methods used in Johns Hopkins study" 202: 103: 76: 3029: 2293: 3606: 3305: 3808: 3630: 2750: 1784: 3177: 2154:"100,000 Dead – or 8,000. How many Iraqi civilians have died as a result of the war?" 370:

et al. to Apfelroth. Acknowledges flaws, but says "the key public-health findings of this study are

4482: 3182: 3006: 792: 563: 469: 449: 292: 210: 131: 130:

of 392,979 to 942,636 excess Iraqi deaths. 601,027 deaths (range of 426,369 to 793,663 using a 95%

99: 3149: 3121: 2175:"Researchers Who Rushed Into Print a Study of Iraqi Civilian Deaths Now Wonder Why It Was Ignored" 4469:. By Gilbert Burnham, MD, PhD, Professor and Director, Center for Refugee and Disaster Response, 3951: 3916: 3870: 3824: 3798: 3693: 3499: 3369: 3075: 2973: 2712: 2621: 2555: 2422: 2387: 2344: 1881: 1749: 1417:

UNDP ILCS stands for the 2004 United Nations Development Programme Iraq Living Conditions Survey

992: 323: 166:

The survey was sponsored by the Center for International Emergency Disaster and Refugee Studies,

65: 34: 4384: 4371: 4344: 3236: 29: 3576: 2599: 4298: 4094: 3908: 3862: 3685: 3491: 3361: 3212: 3011: 2776: 2768: 2471: 2379: 2336: 1968: 1873: 1803: 1741: 1450:

study. It points to, for example, a much larger number of clusters (2,200 for ILCS vs. 33 for

1208: 617: 371: 150:

estimated more deaths than the Lancet, though it covered a longer period of the conflict. The

38: 3973: 2622:"Exaggerated claims, substandard research, and a disservice to truth :: Iraq Body Count" 2133: 1454:), and a more accurate sampling rate (1 in 200 for ILCS vs. 1 in 3,000 for Lancet). The 2006 4459: 4389: 4290: 4084: 4074: 4002: 3943: 3900: 3854: 3816: 3747: 3677: 3521: 3481: 3421: 3353: 3292: 3260: 2963: 2933: 2758: 2704: 2696: 2552: 2492: 2461: 2453: 2414: 2371: 2328: 2158: 2049: 1865: 1733: 1134: 869: 850: 832: 827:, has criticised the pre-invasion death rate used in both the 2004 and 2006 Lancet surveys. 823: 625:, questioned the study based on their earlier research in Iraq, saying, "Well, we think—the 233: 4208: 4149: 2276: 1717:

Roberts, Les; Lafta, Riyadh; Garfield, Richard; Khudhairi, Jamal; Burnham, Gilbert (2004).

760:

The press release also discussed an examination of all the original data collection forms:

4262: 4215: 4155: 4121: 4044: 3717: 3648: 3579:. By Hamit Dardagan, John Sloboda, and Josh Dougherty. Press Release 14, 16 October 2006. 3393: 2928: 2681: 2676: 2200: 2139: 2056: 2033: 2003: 612: 606: 422: 68: 4255: 3994: 3558: 2990: 2849:"Online NewsHour: Update | Study Finds 655,000 Iraqi Deaths | October 11, 2006" 991:

The 2000 BBC article reported that after the UN sanctions were imposed after Iraq's 1990

982:, titled "Sanctions and childhood mortality in Iraq", that was published in the May 2000 49:) the flags aim to "raise awareness of the human cost of the Iraq War." The exhibit uses 4037: 3812: 2754: 2193: 1769:. By Les Roberts, Riyadh Lafta, Richard Garfield, Jamal Khudhairi, and Gilbert Burnham. 338:

they perceived as its poor quality in order to sway the U.S. electorate. On this topic,

4336: 4089: 4062: 3542: 3396:. Lists bibliographic details for article, "Sanctions and childhood mortality in Iraq". 3386: 3052:"Executive Council, American Association for Public Opinion Research February 13, 2009" 1674: 1431:

study was released was between 43,546 and 48,343, or roughly 7% of the estimate in the

1327: 974: 646: 638: 315:

5 April 2004 and 5 October 2004, 3,853 civilians were killed and 15,517 were injured".

206: 84: 3947: 3904: 3858: 3710: 3357: 2952:"Ethical and Data-Integrity Problems in the Second Lancet survey of Mortality in Iraq" 2878: 2466: 2441: 2418: 2375: 2332: 1869: 1737: 33:

White and red flags, representing Iraqi and American deaths, sit in the grass quad of

4514: 4442:"War on Iraq: Is the United States Killing 10,000 Iraqis Every Month? Or Is It More?" 4434: 4356: 4124:. 2004 UNDP ILCS. United Nations Development Programme Iraq Living Conditions Survey. 3697: 3426: 3407: 2921: 2716: 2534: 2426: 1556: 1213: 701: 650: 3955: 3920: 3874: 3828: 3503: 3373: 2977: 2174: 2098: 1885: 1851:"Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: a cross-sectional cluster sample survey" 4376: 4349: 3845:

Guha-Sapir, Debarati; Degomme, Olivier; Pedersen, Jon (2007). "Mortality in Iraq".

3820: 3681: 3622: 3526: 2391: 2348: 1979: 1928: 1889: 1753: 1370: 1244:

report claimed that Bohannon misquoted Burnham, stating that "in no place does our

1186: 1103:

described death certificate procedures of the Ministry of Health (MoH) as follows:

1024: 552: 155: 2020: 3486: 3469: 1669:

The references used may be made clearer with a different or consistent style of

858:

estimate of excess deaths since the invasion to be too high. Fred Kaplan wrote:

779: 356: 72: 4228:"Study reveals fundamental flaws to 2007 estimate of one million Iraqis killed" 3324: 2697:"Access : Huge Iraqi death estimate sparks controversy : Nature News" 2050:"Conflict Deaths in Iraq: A Methodological Critique of the ORB Survey Estimate" 2028: 4416: 2968: 2951: 2582: 1903: 1771: 1006:

The UN sanctions ended on 22 May 2003 (with certain arms-related exceptions).

984: 60: 51: 3752: 3735: 2772: 2457: 1719:"Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample survey" 673:(AAPOR) announced that an 8-month investigation found the author of the 2006 404:

A second study by some of the same authors was published in October 2006, in

3610: 3310: 1152: 962: 738:

On 1 February 2010, The Bloomberg School and Dr. Burnham were named for the

269: 174: 4302: 4114: 4098: 3912: 3866: 3689: 3495: 3365: 2780: 2475: 2383: 2340: 1877: 1745: 1462:

study surveyed 1849 households. The ILCS study surveyed 22,000 households.

729:

has subsequently written in support of the actions taken by AAPOR, saying:

4079: 456:

article. The population number used in the calculation is reported in the

4493: 4446: 4281:

Burnham GM (July 2008). "Violence-related mortality in Iraq, 2002–2006".

2708: 2538: 556: 253: 178: 119: 80: 4294: 295:(CI95), resulting from the difficulty and scarcity of reliable sources. 45:. As part of the travelling Iraq Body Count exhibit (not related to the 4488: 3998: 2922:"Iraqi official estimates at least 150,000 Iraqis killed by insurgents" 2076: 1354: 355:

20 November 2004. Criticism and suggestions by peer reviewer Professor

274: 249: 245: 186: 115: 4240:"New study estimates 151 000 violent Iraqi deaths since 2003 invasion" 4133: 3629:. By Sean Gourley, Neil Johnson, and Michael Spagat. 20 October 2006. 3470:"Epidemiology. Iraqi death estimates called too high; methods faulted" 3387:

Centre for Population Studies. DFID Reproductive Health Work Programme

2643: 1849:

Burnham, Gilbert; Lafta, Riyadh; Doocy, Shannon; Roberts, Les (2006).

18:

Lancet surveys of mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq

3344:

Ali MM, Shah IH (2000). "Sanctions and childhood mortality in Iraq".

714:

research. The "correct forum", it says, is the scientific literature.

572: 214: 3668:

Burnham G, Roberts L (2006). "A debate over Iraqi death estimates".

2763: 2738: 2319:

Bird, S (2004). "Military and public-health sciences need to ally".

1901:. By Gilbert Burnham, Riyadh Lafta, Shannon Doocy, and Les Roberts. 4170:. April 2006. By Hamit Dardagan, John Sloboda, and Josh Dougherty. 3255: 2153: 1376:

Dr. Ben Coghlan, an epidemiologist in Melbourne Australia, writes:

3803: 3276: 3256:"Number Crunching. Taking another look at the Lancet's Iraq study" 1276: 688:

methodology and a summary of the disposition of all sample cases.

257: 28: 2405:

Roberts, L; Burnham, G; Garfield, R (2005). "Mortality in Iraq".

1929:"The Human Cost of the War in Iraq: A Mortality Study, 2002–2006" 1757: 593:

study, reaching its conclusions by correcting errors in the 2006

4364: 4145: 3306:"Could 650,000 Iraqis really have died because of the invasion?" 1598:

Roberts says the discrepancy between the two studies arise with

190: 118:, because it excluded the extreme statistical outlier data from 111: 2583:"Reality checks: some responses to the latest Lancet estimates" 774:

Steven E. Moore, who conducted survey research in Iraq for the

298:

Lila Guterman, after writing a long article in January 2005 in

3734:

Johnson NF, Spagat M, Gourley S, Onnela JP, Reinert G (2008).

3546: 3329: 2288: 2286: 1646: 1479: 1439:

However, IBC believes some of it may also be explained by the

1041: 1014:

Madelyn Hicks, a psychiatrist and public health researcher at

970: 890:

From a 19 October 2006 Washington Post article there is this:

577: 154:

surveys have been supported by some journalists, governments,

4256:"Lancet Study Author Assesses New Report on Iraqi Death Toll" 3577:

Reality checks: some responses to the latest Lancet estimates

1999:"Study Claims Iraq's 'Excess' Death Toll Has Reached 655,000" 1073:

So, 92% of those asked for death certificates produced them.

4489:"Right-Wingers Can't Cover Up Iraq's Death Toll Catastrophe" 4195: 4168:"Speculation is no substitute: a defence of Iraq Body Count" 1099:

The August 2006 Basrah Governorate Assessment Report of the

4038:"Gut reaction aside, those on the ground know Iraq reality" 3197:"Response to the Wall Street Journal's "655,000 War Dead?"" 2120: 392:

Epidemiologist Klim McPherson writes in the 12 March 2005

3290:. By Gilbert Burnham and Les Roberts. November 20, 2006. 3026:"AAPOR Finds Gilbert Burnham in Violation of Ethics Code" 2294:"Scientists estimate 100,000 Iraqis may have died in war" 291:

Some criticisms have focused on the relatively broad 95%

4148:. Source of IBC quote on undercounting by media is here 3559:"A moment with ... Dr. Les Roberts, political scientist" 2585:. By Hamit Dardagan, John Sloboda, and Josh Dougherty. 2091:"CNN.com In-Depth Specials – Counting the dead in Congo" 597:

estimate and triangulating with data from IBC and ILCS.

4503:. The Center for Refugee and Disaster Response, of the 3736:"Bias in Epidemiological Studies of Conflict Mortality" 2045: 2043: 1142:

study authors, Gilbert Burnham and Les Roberts, write:

205:

resolution that all foreign armies must leave Congo, a

4432:(contains link to audio), interview with Les Roberts, 2670:"Is Iraq's Civilian Death Toll 'Horrible' – Or Worse?" 3007:"Author Of Shocking Iraq Study Accused Of Bad Ethics" 1260:

The authors have also published a follow-up paper in

3711:"Release of Data from the 2006 Iraq Mortality Study" 3178:"655,000 War Dead? A bogus study on Iraq casualties" 2553:

Ministers were told not to rubbish Iraq deaths study

2021:"UK Poll Consistent with 1 Million Extrapolation of 1427:

The IBC death count at the time of the October 2006

799:"655,000 War Dead? A bogus study on Iraq casualties" 568:

Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters

4063:"Iraq War Mortality Estimates: A Systematic Review" 3995:"Iraq death rate estimates defended by researchers" 3522:"UK scientists attack Lancet study over death toll" 3237:"Estimates of deaths in first war still in dispute" 1923: 1921: 1919: 1917: 1915: 1913: 909:Here is an excerpt from the supplement to the 2006 4185:"Iraq | United Nations Development Programme" 4501:Answers to Questions About Iraq Mortality Surveys 4326:"Study Puts Iraqi Deaths of Civilians at 100,000" 3101:What is behind criticism of Iraq deaths estimate? 2665: 2663: 2661: 2261: 2259: 1581:The "Iraq Family Health Survey" published in the 1555:This ORB poll estimate came under criticism in a 669:On 3 February 2009, the Executive Council of the 4413:London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine 3442:"Security Council Resolution 1483. May 22, 2003" 3217:: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown ( 2578: 2576: 1844: 1842: 1840: 1108:same day. The following documents are required: 980:London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine 671:American Association for Public Opinion Research 4505:Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 4471:Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 4467:Researchers Respond to National Journal Article 3722:Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 3225:Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 3166:Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 2945: 2943: 2530: 2528: 1838: 1836: 1834: 1832: 1830: 1828: 1826: 1824: 1822: 1820: 845:See also a related article about Beth Daponte: 693:Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 3272: 3270: 3076:"Nondisclosure Cited in Iraq Casualties Study" 2991:"Nondisclosure Cited in Iraq Casualties Study" 2508: 2506: 2487: 2485: 1091:study's death certificate findings saying the 3891:Dougherty, Josh (2007). "Mortality in Iraq". 3596:United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees 3538: 3536: 3162:Review Completed of 2006 Iraq Mortality Study 2149: 2147: 2072:"The Iraq deaths study was valid and correct" 1527:Casualties of the conflict in Iraq since 2003 1385:Burnham is one of the authors of both of the 1101:United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees 934:Overall post-invasion: 13.2 deaths/1,000/year 790:study in an 18 October 2006 editorial in the 8: 4361:"100,000 Iraqis Dead: Should We Believe It?" 3199:. Archived from the original on 8 March 2008 3095: 3093: 2847:NewsHour with Jim Lehrer (11 October 2006). 1994: 1992: 1990: 1988: 1986: 1712: 1710: 925:March 2003–April 2004: 7.5 deaths/1,000/year 804:Gilbert Burnham replied on 20 October 2006: 4536:George W. Bush administration controversies 4417:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5vD_Ub2K_c 4218:by Opinion Research Business, January 2008. 3463: 3461: 3459: 2170: 2168: 1127:The issuance of death certificates is free. 931:June 2005–June 2006: 19.8 deaths/1,000/year 734:your actions the goals stated in your Code. 4345:"100,000 Iraqi civilians dead, says study" 3886: 3884: 3607:"655,000 Dead in Iraq since Bush Invasion" 3517: 3515: 3513: 2642:. Fafo.no. 2 February 1996. Archived from 2362:Apfelroth, S (2005). "Mortality in Iraq". 2194:"Dead Iraqis. Why an Estimate was Ignored" 224:Roberts' regular technique is to estimate 209:request for $ 140 million in aid, and the 4088: 4078: 4001:. October 21, 2006. Article is also here 3840: 3838: 3802: 3751: 3663: 3661: 3485: 3425: 3408:"Truth and death in Iraq under sanctions" 2967: 2762: 2465: 2242:"320: What's In A Number? – 2006 Edition" 1693:Learn how and when to remove this message 1628:. An overview of many casualty estimates. 1164:out state forms and giving their address. 928:May 2004–May 2005: 10.9 deaths/1,000/year 3223:. By Gilbert Burnham. October 20, 2006. 2834:International Committee of the Red Cross 2220:"News Foreign & Commonwealth Office" 2067: 2065: 1567:Iraq Family Health Survey compared with 1228:Bohannon also alleged that Burnham told 1120:Food ration card of the deceased person. 605:, the Iraq Living Conditions Survey and 244:the 2003 invasion of Iraq." Among such " 4372:"The Lancet and the bodies in question" 4110: 4108: 3627:Iraq Study Flawed: Death Toll Too High" 3180:. By Steven E. Moore. 18 October 2006. 1706: 748:Johns Hopkins Investigation of the 2nd 413:(426,369–793,663) were due to violence. 4398:"100,000 deaths in Iraq: A year later" 4246:. See right sidebar for related links. 3210: 2739:"Iraqi death toll withstands scrutiny" 2370:(9465): 1133, author reply 1133–1134. 2113:"International Rescue Committee (IRC)" 1973:: CS1 maint: archived copy as title ( 1966: 1808:: CS1 maint: archived copy as title ( 1801: 1190:article reported this response from a 1151:In October 2006 Middle East Professor 3543:Lancet author answers your questions" 3524:. By Sarah Boseley. 24 October 2006. 3146:"2010 Top Ten Dubious Polling Awards" 2016: 2014: 1117:Civil ID card of the deceased person; 7: 4115:"Iraq Living Conditions Survey 2004" 3653:Royal Holloway, University of London 3592:Basrah Governorate Assessment Report 3288:s Fred Kaplan. (And Kaplan replies)" 3258:. By Fred Kaplan. October 20, 2006. 2875:"War's Iraqi Death Toll Tops 50,000" 2117:International Rescue Committee (IRC) 2059:By Michael Spagat and Josh Dougherty 1506:Iraq Body Count project compared to 922:"Pre-invasion: 5.5 deaths/1,000/year 4526:Civilian casualties in the Iraq War 4491:. By John Tirman. 21 January 2008. 4230:Royal Holloway University of London 3853:(9556): 102, author reply 103–104. 2993:. By Gary Langer. 4 February 2009. 2156:. By Fred Kaplan. 29 October 2004. 1044:article reports this response from 1028:article reports this response from 877:study authors, Gilbert Burnham and 4402:American Friends Service Committee 3406:Spagat, Michael (September 2010). 3325:"Child death rate doubles in Iraq" 2877:. Commondreams.org. Archived from 2827:"Search results – Resource centre" 2602:. Iraq Body Count. 16 October 2006 2493:"'Huge rise' in Iraqi death tolls" 784:International Republican Institute 585:data in detail. It concludes that 350:publications related to criticisms 25: 4134:About the Iraq Body Count project 3676:(5803): 1241, author reply 1241. 3561:. By Tom Paulson. 20 April 2007. 3118:"Letter to AAPOR President Kulka" 3078:. Abcnews.go.com. 4 February 2009 2180:The Chronicle of Higher Education 1632:ORB survey of Iraq War casualties 1604:Iraq Family Health Survey#400,000 1543:ORB survey of Iraq War casualties 1221:methods section of the published 1053:interviewed two clusters in 2004. 830:In an 29 October 2004 article in 386:The Chronicle of Higher Education 301:The Chronicle of Higher Education 171:Bloomberg School of Public Health 148:ORB survey of Iraq War casualties 4415:, on 13 April 2005; uploaded in 4289:(4): 431–432, author reply 434. 4014:Peter Barron (13 October 2006). 3972:. Democracy Now!. Archived from 3427:10.1111/j.1740-9713.2010.00437.x 2901:"Iraq toll report 'exaggerated'" 2600:"Press Release 14 (16 Oct 2006)" 2535:Iraqi deaths survey 'was robust' 1651: 1300:The purpose of the graph in the 1236:In a 24 November 2006 letter to 727:American Statistical Association 287:Criticisms and countercriticisms 4479:Mailman School of Public Health 4242:. 9 January 2008 news release. 4049:Centre for International Health 1584:New England Journal of Medicine 1293:Figure 4 from the October 2006 776:Coalition Provisional Authority 661:AAPOR investigation of the 2nd 304:, wrote a short article in the 137:The mortality estimates in the 3682:10.1126/science.314.5803.1241b 3609:. By Middle Eastern Professor 2737:Giles, Jim (19 October 2006). 1076:In an interview in April 2007 1032:study author Gilbert Burnham: 282:fire from helicopter gunships. 1: 4268:Institute for Public Accuracy 4209:Update on Iraqi Casualty Data 4016:"BBC NEWS | The Editors" 3948:10.1016/S0140-6736(07)60063-4 3905:10.1016/S0140-6736(07)60062-2 3859:10.1016/S0140-6736(07)60061-0 3358:10.1016/S0140-6736(00)02289-3 2695:Jim Giles (11 October 2006). 2419:10.1016/S0140-6736(05)71867-5 2376:10.1016/S0140-6736(05)71866-3 2333:10.1016/S0140-6736(04)17452-7 1870:10.1016/S0140-6736(06)69491-9 1738:10.1016/S0140-6736(04)17441-2 973:article reported that before 960:In a 5 March 2007 article in 655:Defense & Peace Economics 542:Iraq Living Conditions Survey 520:'s Chief Scientific Adviser, 75:studies on the effect of the 4477:, PhD, Associate Professor, 4387:, interview of Les Roberts, 4331:International Herald Tribune 3487:10.1126/science.314.5798.396 3281:number crunchers respond to 1409:UNDP ILCS study compared to 1321:More responses to criticisms 956:Infant and child death rates 691:Neither Dr. Burnham nor the 380:Other responses to criticism 318:Some critics have said that 71:in the world, published two 4385:"Counting the dead in Iraq" 3651:. Department of Economics, 3028:. Aapor.org. Archived from 2956:Defence and Peace Economics 2442:"Counting the dead in Iraq" 947:The difference between the 615:Iraq correspondent for the 366:26 March 2005. Response by 4557: 3821:10.1209/0295-5075/85/28001 3642:Conflict Mortality Surveys 3564:Seattle Post-Intelligencer 2206:Columbia Journalism Review 1626:Casualties of the Iraq War 1574: 1540: 1520:Casualties of the Iraq War 1513: 1048:study author Les Roberts: 1010:40 houses surveyed per day 645:A 2010 paper by Professor 491:U.S. Department of Defense 307:Columbia Journalism Review 183:Al-Mustansiriya University 4541:Academic journal articles 4244:World Health Organization 3740:Journal of Peace Research 3716:13 September 2007 at the 2969:10.1080/10242690802496898 2950:Spagata, Michael (2010). 1637:Iraq Family Health Survey 1577:Iraq Family Health Survey 1533:ORB survey compared with 1281:Figure 4 from the second 1225:paper is oversimplified. 603:Iraq Family Health Survey 144:Iraq Family Health Survey 4043:24 November 2016 at the 3753:10.1177/0022343308094325 3647:14 December 2006 at the 2927:17 December 2006 at the 2458:10.1136/bmj.330.7491.550 720:Public Opinion Quarterly 246:conservative assumptions 4444:. By Michael Schwartz. 4214:1 February 2008 at the 4172:Iraq Body Count project 4154:9 November 2009 at the 4146:Iraq Body Count project 3581:Iraq Body Count project 3242:Pittsburgh Post-Gazette 2679:. By Jefferson Morley, 2675:11 October 2010 at the 2587:Iraq Body Count project 2518:San Francisco Chronicle 2199:1 December 2005 at the 1561:Survey Research Methods 1516:Iraq Body Count project 1422:Iraq Body Count project 1085:Iraq Body Count project 814:Pre-invasion death rate 621:, in an interview with 534:Iraq Body Count project 505:San Francisco Chronicle 487:Iraq Body Count project 394:British Medical Journal 47:Iraq Body Count project 43:Oregon State University 2031:). 14 September 2007. 1503: 1493: 1478:In an 30 October 2006 1476: 1406: 1383: 1367: 1290: 1204: 1166: 1149: 1132:In a 20 November 2006 1130: 1055: 1038: 937: 897: 888: 867:In a 20 November 2006 865: 848:In an 20 October 2006 843: 811: 778:and was an advisor to 767: 745: 736: 716: 685: 514: 442: 433: 415: 284: 56: 55:as its primary source. 4324:Elisabeth Rosenthal, 4261:11 April 2008 at the 4080:10.1186/1752-1505-2-1 3768:"Article of the Year" 3148:. February 1, 2010. " 2851:. PBS. Archived from 2626:www.iraqbodycount.org 2101:on 22 September 2006. 1498: 1488: 1467: 1398: 1378: 1363: 1280: 1240:, the authors of the 1196: 1161: 1144: 1105: 1050: 1034: 1016:King's College London 915: 892: 883: 860: 838: 806: 797:In a piece entitled, 762: 740: 731: 707: 680: 510: 437: 428: 410: 279: 203:U.N. Security Council 116:conservative estimate 81:subsequent occupation 77:2003 invasion of Iraq 32: 3997:. By Deena Beasley. 3545:. October 30, 2006. 3392:10 June 2007 at the 3164:. 23 February 2009. 2709:10.1038/news061009-9 2440:McPherson K (2005). 2267:"ABC News: ABC News" 2203:. By Lila Guterman, 2177:. By Lila Guterman. 2138:19 June 2006 at the 2055:19 July 2011 at the 2027:. By Robert Naiman ( 1895:on 7 September 2015. 1269:study are released. 293:confidence intervals 64:, one of the oldest 4521:Iraq War casualties 4483:Columbia University 4419:on 25 October 2006. 4295:10.1056/NEJMc080419 4265:. 11 January 2008. 4120:29 May 2006 at the 4067:Conflict and Health 3976:on 14 November 2007 3813:2009EL.....8528001O 3613:. October 11, 2006. 3468:Bohannon J (2006). 3352:(9218): 1851–1857. 3308:. By Anjana Ahuja. 3277:"Counting Corpses. 3183:Wall Street Journal 3127:on 24 February 2021 3099:MacKenzie, Debora. 3032:on 10 February 2009 3009:. 4 February 2009. 2931:. 9 November 2006. 2755:2006Natur.443..728G 2515:. By Anna Badkhen. 2413:(9465): 1133–1134. 2327:(9448): 1831–1833. 2209:, March/April 2005. 2029:Just Foreign Policy 1864:(9545): 1421–1428. 1763:on 1 December 2005. 1732:(9448): 1857–1864. 1402:Conflict and Health 1339:An 11 October 2006 1262:Europhysics Letters 1184:An 24 October 2006 1040:An 30 October 2006 1022:An 24 October 2006 793:Wall Street Journal 564:Debarati Guha-Sapir 518:Ministry of Defence 489:(IBC) estimate and 470:confidence interval 420:An 11 October 2006 400:Second study (2006) 211:US State Department 132:confidence interval 100:confidence interval 4438:, 12 October 2006. 4404:, 26 October 2005. 4380:, 7 November 2004. 4367:, 3 November 2004. 4353:, 29 October 2004. 4340:, 29 October 2004. 4198:on 14 August 2015. 3444:. Globalpolicy.org 3107:. 9 February 2009. 3064:on 7 October 2009. 2685:, 19 October 2006. 2646:on 12 January 2005 2589:. 16 October 2006. 2556:Guardian Unlimited 2499:. 11 October 2006. 2001:. By David Brown. 1291: 1273:Criticism of graph 1138:article, 2 of the 1058:Death certificates 993:invasion of Kuwait 873:article, 2 of the 770:Number of clusters 566:, director of the 508:article reported: 502:A 12 October 2006 498:Official reactions 324:This American Life 162:First study (2004) 57: 35:The Valley Library 4463:, 4 January 2008. 4457:. By Neil Munro, 4383:Joseph Choonara, 4051:, 31 October 2006 3942:(9556): 103–104. 3899:(9556): 102–103. 3480:(5798): 396–397. 3246:16 February 2003. 3239:. By Jack Kelly. 3012:Houston Chronicle 2836:. 3 October 2013. 2749:(7113): 728–729. 2562:Counting the cost 2452:(7491): 550–551. 2300:. 28 October 2004 2244:. 3 November 2006 2080:, 21 October 2006 1907:, 11 October 2006 1703: 1702: 1695: 1396:article reports: 1343:article reports: 988:medical journal. 633:The October 2006 627:Los Angeles Times 618:Los Angeles Times 426:article reports: 39:Corvallis, Oregon 16:(Redirected from 4548: 4460:National Journal 4393:, 23 April 2005. 4390:Socialist Worker 4307: 4306: 4278: 4272: 4253: 4247: 4237: 4231: 4225: 4219: 4206: 4200: 4199: 4194:. 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Knowledge (XXG)

Lancet surveys of Iraq War casualties

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