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afterward on their thoughts. Many scholars argue that this type of polling is much more effective than traditional public opinion polling. Unlike traditional public polling, deliberative opinion polls measure what the public believes about issues after being offered information and the ability to discuss them with other voters. Since voters generally do not actively research various issues, they often base their opinions on these issues on what the media and candidates say about them. Scholars argued that these polls can truly reflect voters' feelings about an issue once they are given the necessary information to learn more about it. Despite this, there are two issues with deliberative opinion polls. First, they are expensive and challenging to perform since they require a representative sample of voters, and the information given on specific issues must be fair and balanced. Second, the results of deliberative opinion polls generally do not reflect the opinions of most voters since most voters do not take the time to research issues the way an academic researches issues.
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and they made this judgment based on exit polls. However, the vote count revealed that these exit polls were misleading, and
Hillary Clinton was far ahead of Bernie Sanders in the popular vote, winning the state by 58% to 42% margin. The overreliance on exit polling leads to the second point of how it undermines public trust in the media and the electoral process. In the U.S., Congress and state governments have criticized the use of exit polling because Americans tend to believe more in the accuracy of exit polls. If an exit poll shows that American voters were leaning toward a particular candidate, most would assume that the candidate would win. However, as mentioned earlier, an exit poll can sometimes be inaccurate and lead to situations like the 2016 New York primary, where a news organization reports misleading primary results. Government officials argue that since many Americans believe in exit polls more, election results are likely to make voters not think they are impacted electorally and be more doubtful about the credibility of news organizations.
614:, the characteristics of those who agree to be interviewed may be markedly different from those who decline. That is, the actual sample is a biased version of the universe the pollster wants to analyze. In these cases, bias introduces new errors, one way or the other, that are in addition to errors caused by sample size. Error due to bias does not become smaller with larger sample sizes, because taking a larger sample size simply repeats the same mistake on a larger scale. If the people who refuse to answer, or are never reached, have the same characteristics as the people who do answer, then the final results should be unbiased. If the people who do not answer have different opinions then there is bias in the results. In terms of election polls, studies suggest that bias effects are small, but each polling firm has its own techniques for adjusting weights to minimize selection bias.
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of the sample to the broader population from which it was selected. Other factors also come into play in making a survey scientific. One must select a sample of sufficient size. If the sampling error is too large or the level of confidence too low, it will be difficult to make reasonably precise statements about characteristics of the population of interest to the pollster. A scientific poll not only will have a sufficiently large sample, it will also be sensitive to response rates. Very low response rates will raise questions about how representative and accurate the results are. Are there systematic differences between those who participated in the survey and those who, for whatever reason, did not participate? Sampling methods, sample size, and response rates will all be discussed in this chapter" (Asher 2017).
626:, where the answers given by respondents do not reflect their true beliefs. This may be deliberately engineered by unscrupulous pollsters in order to generate a certain result or please their clients, but more often is a result of the detailed wording or ordering of questions (see below). Respondents may deliberately try to manipulate the outcome of a poll by e.g. advocating a more extreme position than they actually hold in order to boost their side of the argument or give rapid and ill-considered answers in order to hasten the end of their questioning. Respondents may also feel under social pressure not to give an unpopular answer. For example, respondents might be unwilling to admit to unpopular attitudes like
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sovereignty by inventing scientific public opinion polls, and making it the centerpiece of their own market research, as well as the key to understanding politics. George Gallup, the vice president of Young and
Rubicam, and numerous other advertising experts, led the way. Moving into the 1940s, the industry played a leading role in the ideological mobilization of the American people in fighting the Nazis and the Japanese in World War II. As part of that effort, they redefined the "American Way of Life" in terms of a commitment to free enterprise. "Advertisers", Lears concludes, "played a crucial hegemonic role in creating the consumer culture that dominated post-World War II American society."
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575:. This makes the assumption that the procedure is similar enough between many different polls and uses the sample size of each poll to create a polling average. Another source of error stems from faulty demographic models by pollsters who weigh their samples by particular variables such as party identification in an election. For example, if you assume that the breakdown of the US population by party identification has not changed since the previous presidential election, you may underestimate a victory or a defeat of a particular party candidate that saw a surge or decline in its party registration relative to the previous presidential election cycle.
564:â usually defined as the radius of a 95% confidence interval for a particular statistic. One example is the percent of people who prefer product A versus product B. When a single, global margin of error is reported for a survey, it refers to the maximum margin of error for all reported percentages using the full sample from the survey. If the statistic is a percentage, this maximum margin of error can be calculated as the radius of the confidence interval for a reported percentage of 50%. Others suggest that a poll with a random sample of 1,000 people has margin of sampling error of ±3% for the estimated percentage of the whole population.
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run for office. Secondly, it shows them where their weaknesses and strengths are in two main areas. The first is the electorate. A benchmark poll shows them what types of voters they are sure to win, those they are sure to lose, and everyone in-between these two extremes. This lets the campaign know which voters are persuadable so they can spend their limited resources in the most effective manner. Second, it can give them an idea of what messages, ideas, or slogans are the strongest with the electorate.
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vote in the election. Second, these polls are conducted across multiple voting locations across the country, allowing for a comparative analysis between specific regions. For example, in the United States, exit polls are beneficial in accurately determining how the state voters cast their ballot instead of relying on a national survey. Third, exit polls can give journalists and social scientists a greater understanding of why voters voted the way they did and what factors contributed to their vote.
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counterproductive, that not being sent between groups that assume ulterior motives from each other and not being allowed to express consistent critical thought anywhere may create psychological stress because humans are sapient, and that discussion spaces free from assumptions of ulterior motives behind specific opinions should be created. In this context, rejection of the assumption that opinion polls show actual links between opinions is considered important.
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create reasons for a party's loss or gain in the polls. This can reinforce or change their opinion of the candidate and thus affect voting behaviour. Third, the final possibility is a "behavioural response" which is similar to a cognitive response. The only salient difference is that a voter will go and seek new information to form their "mental list", thus becoming more informed of the election. This may then affect voting behaviour.
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Additionally, leading questions often contain, or lack, certain facts that can sway a respondent's answer. Argumentative
Questions can also impact the outcome of a survey. These types of questions, depending on their nature, either positive or negative, influence respondents' answers to reflect the tone of the question(s) and generate a certain response or reaction, rather than gauge sentiment in an unbiased manner.
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792:. Because pollsters cannot use automated dialing machines to call mobile phones in the United States (because the phone's owner may be charged for taking a call), these individuals are typically excluded from polling samples. There is concern that, if the subset of the population without cell phones differs markedly from the rest of the population, these differences can skew the results of the poll.
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of publication of the survey results largely differed in different countries. Out of the 20 countries examined, 3 prohibit the publication during the entire period of campaigns, while others prohibit it for a shorter term such as the polling period or the final 48 hours before a poll closes. In India, the
Election Commission has prohibited it in the 48 hours before the start of polling.
495:. Then, a subsequent poll conducted just two days later showed Bush ahead of Gore by seven points. It was soon determined that the volatility of the results was at least in part due to an uneven distribution of Democratic and Republican affiliated voters in the samples. Though the Gallup Organization argued the volatility in the poll was a genuine representation of the electorate, other
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1058:, outlines three additional "behavioural" responses that voters may exhibit when faced with polling data. The first is known as a "cue taking" effect which holds that poll data is used as a "proxy" for information about the candidates or parties. Cue taking is "based on the psychological phenomenon of using heuristics to simplify a complex decision" (243).
649:(select only one candidate) in a poll puts an unintentional bias into the poll, since people who favor more than one candidate cannot indicate this. The fact that they must choose only one candidate biases the poll, causing it to favor the candidate most different from the others while it disfavors candidates who are similar to other candidates. The
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error to 1% they would need a sample of around 10,000 people. In practice, pollsters need to balance the cost of a large sample against the reduction in sampling error and a sample size of around 500â1,000 is a typical compromise for political polls. (To get complete responses it may be necessary to include thousands of additional participators.)
811:. In previous elections, the proportion of the general population using cell phones was small, but as this proportion has increased, there is concern that polling only landlines is no longer representative of the general population. In 2003, only 2.9% of households were wireless (cellphones only), compared to 12.8% in 2006. This results in "
689:". This type of leading question may concern an uncomfortable or controversial issue, and/or automatically assume the subject of the question is related to the respondent(s) or that they are knowledgeable about it. Likewise, the questions are then worded in a way that limit the possible answers, typically to yes or no.
1014:. This theory is based on the idea that voters view the act of voting as a means of selecting a government. Thus they will sometimes not choose the candidate they prefer on ground of ideology or sympathy, but another, less-preferred, candidate from strategic considerations. An example can be found in the
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Some jurisdictions over the world restrict the publication of the results of opinion polls, especially during the period around an election, in order to prevent the possibly erroneous results from affecting voters' decisions. For instance, in Canada, it is prohibited to publish the results of opinion
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ways, (but) they were neither numerous enough nor different enough on the questions we examined to produce a significant change in overall general population survey estimates when included with the landline samples and weighted according to US Census parameters on basic demographic characteristics."
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Sample
Techniques are also used and recommended to reduce sample errors and errors of margin. In chapter four of author Herb Asher he says,"it is probability sampling and statistical theory that enable one to determine sampling error, confidence levels, and the like and to generalize from the results
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prior to the election of 1824. A study of the background of the election shows these polling efforts were a natural outgrowth of a campaign involving the voters' first real choice of a president and four colorful candidates. Some researchers have attributed the origins of polling to other papers and
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Polling organizations have developed many weighting techniques to help overcome these deficiencies, with varying degrees of success. Studies of mobile phone users by the Pew
Research Center in the US, in 2007, concluded that "cell-only respondents are different from landline respondents in important
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One of the criticisms of opinion polls is that societal assumptions that opinions between which there is no logical link are "correlated attitudes" can push people with one opinion into a group that forces them to pretend to have a supposedly linked but actually unrelated opinion. That, in turn, may
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Exit polls interview voters just as they are leaving polling places. Unlike general public opinion polls, these are polls of people who voted in the election. Exit polls provide a more accurate picture of which candidates the public prefers in an election because people participating in the poll did
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A benchmark poll serves a number of purposes for a campaign. First, it gives the candidate a picture of where they stand with the electorate before any campaigning takes place. If the poll is done prior to announcing for office the candidate may use the poll to decide whether or not they should even
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do not support the entire prohibition of the publication of pre-election opinion polls; most of them have no regulation and some only prohibit it in the final days or hours until the relevant poll closes. A survey by Canada's Royal
Commission on Electoral Reform reported that the prohibition period
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and party ideology shifts must also be taken under consideration. Opinion polling in some instances is a measure of cognitive bias, which is variably considered and handled appropriately in its various applications. In turn, non-nuanced reporting by the media about poll data and public opinions can
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problems. It has been suggested that attempts to counteract unethical opinions by condemning supposedly linked opinions may favor the groups that promote the actually unethical opinions by forcing people with supposedly linked opinions into them by ostracism elsewhere in society making such efforts
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Thus comparisons between polls often boil down to the wording of the question. On some issues, question wording can result in quite pronounced differences between surveys. This can also, however, be a result of legitimately conflicted feelings or evolving attitudes, rather than a poorly constructed
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steadily gaining support, which may have prompted undecided voters or supporters of other parties to support Twigg in order to remove
Portillo. Another example is the boomerang effect where the likely supporters of the candidate shown to be winning feel that chances are slim and that their vote is
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extermination of the Jews never happened?" The confusing wording of this question led to inaccurate results which indicated that 22 percent of respondents believed it seemed possible the
Holocaust might not have ever happened. When the question was reworded, significantly fewer respondents (only 1
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Some people responding may not understand the words being used, but may wish to avoid the embarrassment of admitting this, or the poll mechanism may not allow clarification, so they may make an arbitrary choice. Some percentage of people also answer whimsically or out of annoyance at being polled.
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Exit polling has several disadvantages that can cause controversy depending on its use. First, these polls are not always accurate and can sometimes mislead election reporting. For instance, during the 2016 U.S. primaries, CNN reported that the
Democratic primary in New York was too close to call,
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These controls are not widely used in the polling industry.. However, as it is important that questions to test the product have a high quality, survey methodologists work on methods to test them. Empirical tests provide insight into the quality of the questionnaire, some may be more complex than
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A 3% margin of error means that if the same procedure is used a large number of times, 95% of the time the true population average will be within the sample estimate plus or minus 3%. The margin of error can be reduced by using a larger sample, however if a pollster wishes to reduce the margin of
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to measure the opinions of the whole population based only on a subset, and for this purpose the absolute size of the sample is important, but the percentage of the whole population is not important (unless it happens to be close to the sample size). The possible difference between the sample and
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is generally the first poll taken in a campaign. It is often taken before a candidate announces their bid for office, but sometimes it happens immediately following that announcement after they have had some opportunity to raise funds. This is generally a short and simple survey of likely voters.
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The second, first described by Petty and Cacioppo (1996), is known as "cognitive response" theory. This theory asserts that a voter's response to a poll may not line with their initial conception of the electoral reality. In response, the voter is likely to generate a "mental list" in which they
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Social media today is a popular medium for the candidates to campaign and for gauging the public reaction to the campaigns. Social media can also be used as an indicator of the voter opinion regarding the poll. Some research studies have shown that predictions made using social media signals can
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Deliberative Opinion Polls combine the aspects of a public opinion poll and a focus group. These polls bring a group of voters and provide information about specific issues. They are then allowed to discuss those issues with the other voters. Once they know more about the issues, they are polled
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surveys, where a sample is drawn from a large panel of volunteers, and the results are weighted to reflect the demographics of the population of interest. In contrast, popular web polls draw on whoever wishes to participate rather than a scientific sample of the population, and are therefore not
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However, these polls are sometimes subject to dramatic fluctuations, and so political campaigns and candidates are cautious in analyzing their results. An example of a tracking poll that generated controversy over its accuracy, is one conducted during the 2000 U.S. presidential election, by the
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There were also substantial polling errors in the presidential elections of 1952, 1980, 1996, 2000, and 2016: while the first three correctly predicted the winner (albeit not the extent of their winning margin), with the last two correctly predicting the winner of the popular vote (but not the
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For instance, the public is more likely to indicate support for a person who is described by the surveyor as one of the "leading candidates". This description is "leading" as it indicates a subtle bias for that candidate, since it implies that the others in the race are not serious contenders.
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of the responses that were gathered over a fixed number of the most recent periods, for example the past five days. In this example, the next calculated results will use data for five days counting backwards from the next day, namely the same data as before, but with the data from the next day
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furthermore aggressively promoted consumerism, and minimized the value of (or need for) advertising. Historian Jackson Lears argues that "By the late 1930s, though, corporate advertisers had begun a successful counterattack against their critics." They rehabilitated the concept of consumer
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Benchmark polling often relies on timing, which can be a significant problem if a poll is conducted too early for anyone to know about the potential candidate. A benchmark poll needs to be undertaken when voters are starting to learn more about the possible candidate running for office.
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than the most popular mainstream news stories; many people who see fake news stories report that they believe them; and the most discussed fake news stories tended to favor Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton. As a result of these facts, some have concluded that if not for these stories,
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Opinion polls for many years were maintained through telecommunications or in person-to-person contact. Methods and techniques vary, though they are widely accepted in most areas. Over the years, technological innovations have also influenced survey methods such as the availability of
1160:, which promotes those in power and discredits alternative candidates. Many respondents in Russia do not want to answer pollsters' questions for fear of negative consequences. On 23 March 2023, criminal case was opened against Moscow resident Yury Kokhovets, a participant in the
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effect. It is often mentioned in the media. This occurs when people vote, out of sympathy, for the party perceived to be "losing" the elections. There is less empirical evidence for the existence of this effect than there is for the existence of the bandwagon effect.
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poll results or comparing them to polls in democratic states was irrelevant, as there is no real political competition in Russia, where, unlike in democratic states, Russian voters are not offered any credible alternatives and public opinion is primarily formed by
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Brendan O'Connor, Ramnath Balasubramanyan, Bryan R Routledge, and Noah A Smith. From Tweets to Polls: Linking Text Sentiment to Public Opinion Time Series. In Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media. AAAI Press, pp. 122â129,
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Over time, a number of theories and mechanisms have been offered to explain erroneous polling results. Some of these reflect errors on the part of the pollsters; many of them are statistical in nature. Others blame the respondents for not giving candid answers
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spent much effort in vain trying to discredit this theory in his time by presenting empirical research. A recent meta-study of scientific research on this topic indicates that from the 1980s onward the Bandwagon effect is found more often by researchers.
1565:"Vasileios Lampos, Daniel Preotiuc-Pietro and Trevor Cohn. A user-centric model of voting intention from social media. Proceedings of the 51st Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics. ACL, pp. 993-1003, 2013 Retrieved 16-06-4"
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Viewed from a long-term perspective, advertising had come under heavy pressure in the early 1930s. The Great Depression forced businesses to drastically cut back on their advertising spending. Layoffs and reductions were common at all agencies. The
940:. Evidence shows that social media plays a huge role in the supplying of news: 62 percent of US adults get news on social media. This fact makes the issue of fake news on social media more pertinent. Other evidence shows that the most popular
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A common technique to control for this bias is to rotate the order in which questions are asked. Many pollsters also split-sample. This involves having two different versions of a question, with each version presented to half the respondents.
901:, the opposite appears to have occurred. Most polls predicted an increased Conservative majority, even though in reality the election resulted in a hung parliament with a Conservative plurality: some polls correctly predicted this outcome.
311:; those who favored Landon were more enthusiastic about returning their postcards. Furthermore, the postcards were sent to a target audience who were more affluent than the American population as a whole, and therefore more likely to have
101:: Make sure the page has already been reverted to a non-infringing revision or that infringing text has been removed or replaced before submitting this request. This template is reserved for obvious cases only, for other cases refer to
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asking enough questions to allow all aspects of an issue to be covered and to control effects due to the form of the question (such as positive or negative wording), the adequacy of the number being established quantitatively with
1122:, "It's no longer necessary for a political candidate to guess what an audience thinks. He can with a nightly tracking poll. So it's no longer likely that political leaders are going to lead. Instead, they're going to follow."
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Opinion polling developed into popular applications through popular thought, although response rates for some surveys declined. Also, the following has also led to differentiating results: Some polling organizations, such as
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It is difficult to get co-operation from cellphone users, because in many parts of the US, users are charged for both outgoing and incoming calls. That means that pollsters have had to offer financial compensation to gain
815:". Many polling organisations select their sample by dialling random telephone numbers; however, in 2008, there was a clear tendency for polls which included mobile phones in their samples to show a much larger lead for
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asserts that opinion polls are actually a device for influencing public opinion. The various theories about how this happens can be split into two groups: bandwagon/underdog effects, and strategic ("tactical") voting.
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Some households use cellphones only and have no landline. This tends to include minorities and younger voters; and occurs more frequently in metropolitan areas. Men are more likely to be cellphone-only compared to
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Brodie, Mollyann, et al. "The Past, Present, And Possible Future Of Public Opinion On The ACA: A review of 102 nationally representative public opinion polls about the Affordable Care Act, 2010 through 2019."
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Among the factors that impact the results of Opinion Polls, are the wording and order of the questions being posed by the surveyor. Questions that intentionally affect a respondents answer are referred to as
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These effects indicate how opinion polls can directly affect political choices of the electorate. But directly or indirectly, other effects can be surveyed and analyzed on all political parties. The form of
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took steps to reduce such wide variations in their results. One such step included manipulating the proportion of Democrats and Republicans in any given sample, but this method is subject to controversy.
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carrying out a small pretest of the questionnaire, using a small subset of target respondents. Results can inform a researcher of errors such as missing questions, or logical and procedural errors.
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255:. Since Jackson won the popular vote in that state and the national popular vote, such straw votes gradually became more popular, but they remained local, usually citywide phenomena.
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FernĂĄndez-Prados, Juan SebastiĂĄn, Cristina Cuenca-Piqueras, and MarĂa JosĂ© GonzĂĄlez-Moreno. "International public opinion surveys and public policy in Southern European democracies."
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Some polling companies have attempted to get around that problem by including a "cellphone supplement". There are a number of problems with including cellphones in a telephone poll:
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Starting in the 1980s, tracking polls and related technologies began having a notable impact on U.S. political leaders. According to Douglas Bailey, a Republican who had helped run
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occurs when the poll prompts voters to back the candidate shown to be winning in the poll. The idea that voters are susceptible to such effects is old, stemming at least from 1884;
897:, virtually every poll predicted a hung parliament with Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck, when the actual result was a clear Conservative majority. On the other hand, in
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A caution is that an estimate of a trend is subject to a larger error than an estimate of a level. This is because if one estimates the change, the difference between two numbers
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nonpartisan "fact tank" providing information on the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world by conducting public opinion polling and social science research
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would increase its majority. However, the preliminary results on election night showed a hung parliament with National one seat short of a majority, leading to Prime Minister
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215:. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within
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Pickup, Mark (2010). "Election Campaign Polls and Democracy in Canada: Examining the Evidence behind the Common Claims". In Anderson, Cameron; Stephenson, Laura (eds.).
634:, and thus polls might not reflect the true incidence of these attitudes in the population. In American political parlance, this phenomenon is often referred to as the
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in 1936. For example, telephone sampling has a built-in error because in many times and places, those with telephones have generally been richer than those without.
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soon went out of business, while polling started to take off. Roper went on to correctly predict the two subsequent reelections of President Franklin D. Roosevelt.
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Another source of error is the use of samples that are not representative of the population as a consequence of the methodology used, as was the experience of
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Since some people do not answer calls from strangers, or refuse to answer the poll, poll samples may not be representative samples from a population due to a
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Andrews, F. M. (1984). Construct validity and error components of survey measures: a structural modelling approach. Public Opinion Quarterly, 48, 409-442.
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cause people who have the first opinion to claim on polls that they have the second opinion without having it, causing opinion polls to become part of
874:. Major polling organizations, including Gallup and Roper, had indicated that Dewey would defeat Truman in a landslide; Truman won a narrow victory.
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estimating the measurement quality of the questions. This can be done for instance using test-retest, quasi-simplex, or mutlitrait-multimethod models.
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Murphy, Joe, et al. "Social Media in Public Opinion Research: Report of the AAPOR Task Force on Emerging Technologies in Public Opinion Research."
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Questions". These are more often the result of human error, rather than intentional manipulation. One such example is a survey done in 1992 by the
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Saris, W. E. and Gallhofer, I. N. (2014). Design, evaluation and analysis of questionnaires for survey research. Second Edition. Hoboken, Wiley.
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analyzing the results with psychometric techniques which synthesize the answers into a few reliable scores and detect ineffective questions.
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Kim So Young, Wolinsky-Nahmias Yael (2014). "Cross-national public opinion on climate change: the effects of affluence and vulnerability".
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In a tracking poll responses are obtained in a number of consecutive periods, for instance daily, and then results are calculated using a
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2106:"Political Polling in the Digital Age: The Challenge of Measuring and Understanding Public Opinion" by Robert K. Goidel, yr twenty-eleven
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Eagly, Alice H., et al. "Gender stereotypes have changed: A cross-temporal meta-analysis of US public opinion polls from 1946 to 2018."
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749:. By asking a sample of potential-respondents about their interpretation of the questions and use of the questionnaire, a researcher can
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2788:"Opinion: The truth about Putin's 86-percent approval rating. How people fail to understand survey data about support for the Kremlin"
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By providing information about voting intentions, opinion polls can sometimes influence the behavior of electors, and in his book
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2242:"Wireless Substitution: Early Release of Estimates Based on Data from the National Health Interview Survey, JulyâDecember 2006"
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Heise, D. R.(1969). Separating reliability and stability in test-retest correlation. American Sociological Review, 34, 93-101.
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conducted surveys that were far smaller but more scientifically based, and all three managed to correctly predict the result.
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The earliest forerunners of the modern public opinion poll appear to be tallies of voter preferences reported by the Raleigh
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powers helped to create survey institutes in all of the Western occupation zones of Germany in 1947 and 1948 to better steer
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638:. If the results of surveys are widely publicized this effect may be magnified â a phenomenon commonly referred to as the
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in that year. It has also remained persistent in spite of a lack of empirical corroboration until the late 20th century.
346:", looking for popular support or dissent with this question asked by appeasement politician and future collaborationist
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2642:"Debate: Reporting pre-election polls: it is less about average Jane and Joe, and more about polarized Karen and Kevin"
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predicting the measurement quality of the question. This can be done using the software Survey Quality Predictor (SQP).
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674:. Individuals and/or groups use these types of questions in surveys to elicit responses favorable to their interests.
342:, as the first European survey institute in Paris. Stoetzel started political polls in summer 1939 with the question "
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Tim Bale (2002). "Restricting the broadcast and publication of pre-election and exit polls: some selected examples".
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The Growing Gap between Landline and Dual Frame Election Polls: Republican Vote Share Bigger in Landline-Only Surveys
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An estimate of the margin of error in percentage terms can be gained by the formula 100 Ă· square root of sample size
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alone, with reporting the first public opinion poll. Others give much later dates for the first poll, mentioning a
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surveys that would identify specific political parties or candidates in the final three days before a poll closes.
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had been in the field of public opinion since 1947 when he joined the Elmo Roper firm, then later became partner.
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Tankard, James W. (1972). "Public Opinion Polling by Newspapers in the Presidential Election Campaign of 1824".
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Some people may not be contactable by landline from Monday to Friday and may be contactable only by cellphone.
598:. A rough guide is that if the change in measurement falls outside the margin of error it is worth attention.
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Dyczok, Marta. "Information wars: hegemony, counter-hegemony, propaganda, the use of force, and resistance."
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Mobocracy: How the Media's Obsession with Polling Twists the News, Alters Elections, and Undermines Democracy
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2852:"Russian police upgrade charges against Moscow resident in 'fake news' case over comment for Radio Liberty"
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849:). Numbers therefore have to be dialled by hand, which is more time-consuming and expensive for pollsters.
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which reflects the effects of chance and uncertainty in the sampling process. Sampling polls rely on the
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Some people use their landlines only to access the Internet, and answer calls only to their cellphones.
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1769:"Minority Opinions:Hardly anyone responds to public opinion surveys anymore. Can we still trust them?"
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Bandwagons, Underdogs, the Titanic and the Red Cross: The Influence of Public Opinion Polls on Voters
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exclaiming "bugger the pollsters" on live national television. The official count saw National gain
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Kang, Liu, and Yun-Han Chu. "China's Rise through World Public Opinion: Editorial Introduction."
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610:. Response rates have been declining, and are down to about 10% in recent years. Because of this
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embarked on a national survey (partly as a circulation-raising exercise) and correctly predicted
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Lord, F. and Novick, M. R.(1968). Statistical theories of mental test scores. Addison â Wesley.
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The first known example of an opinion poll was a tally of voter preferences reported by the
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Kenneth F. Warren (1992). "in Defense of Public Opinion Polling." Westview Press. p. 200-1.
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In the United Kingdom, most polls failed to predict the Conservative election victories of
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2588:"Opinion Polls, Coalition Signals and Strategic Voting: Evidence from a Survey Experiment"
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2036:, Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, Published 2014-05-27, Retrieved 2016-06-05
2033:
2014:
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would win the presidential election, but Roosevelt was instead re-elected by a landslide.
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1613:(Ninth ed.). Thousand Oaks, California: CQ Press, an imprint of SAGE Publications.
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This issue was first identified in 2004, but came to prominence only during the 2008
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US federal law prohibits the use of automated dialling devices to call cellphones (
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17:
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936:, a major concern has been that of the effect of false stories spread throughout
76:: In case of doubt, remove this template and post a message asking for review at
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https://us.sagepub.com/sites/default/files/upm-assets/76580_book_item_76580.pdf
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The second category of theories on how polls directly affect voting is called
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The Superpollsters: How They Measure and Manipulate Public Opinion in America
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reported that the term was first used in a political cartoon in the magazine
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Glynn, Carroll J., Susan Herbst, Garrett J. O'Keefe, and Robert Y. Shapiro.
2603:
2115:"Understanding Public Opinion Polls" by Jelke Bethlehem, yr twenty-seventeen
1918:(Ninth ed.). Thousand Oaks, California: SAGE CQ Press. pp. 82â86.
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This results in perhaps 4% of Americans reporting they have personally been
112:: Please do not remove this template until an administrator has reviewed it.
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for revision deletion, as they contain significant copyright violations of
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704:. The question read "Does it seem possible or impossible to you that the
434:
389:
384:. By the 1950s, various types of polling had spread to most democracies.
269:
1755:
Introduction to Bayesian Statistics and Estimation for Social Scientists
1744:, American Association for Public Opinion Research, Retrieved 2016-06-05
5964:
5665:
488:
446:
401:
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Public opinion and polling around the world: a historical encyclopedia
1833:
American Association for Public Opinion Research, Retrieved 2016-06-05
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In addition, Mark Pickup, in Cameron Anderson and Laura Stephenson's
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627:
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3038:
Dictionary of Polling: The Language of Contemporary Opinion Research
441:
Statistical learning methods have been proposed in order to exploit
2923:
Survey Research in the United States: Roots and Emergence 1890â1960
2532:
Hitchens, Peter (2009). "Chapter 1, Guy Fawkes Gets a Blackberry".
479:
included, and without the data from the sixth day before that day.
3014:
The Pollsters: Public Opinion, Politics, and Democratic Leadership
1549:
The Market Research Terminal & Developments in Survey Research
798:
692:
Another type of question that can produce inaccurate results are "
400:
368:: virtually all other commentators had expected a victory for the
1511:
Fables Of Abundance: A Cultural History Of Advertising In America
3806:
2391:"Pollsters, prophets and politics: On the ball or off the mark?"
2376:
Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections
1715:
705:
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2017:, Pew Research Center Published 2013-07-26 Retrieved 2016-06-05
1672:(Ninth ed.). Thousand Oaks, California. pp. 196â198.
1551:â, European Journal of Marketing, Vol. 20 Issue: 2, pp.35 - 39.
3031:
Ratings Analysis: The Theory and Practice of Audience Research
2834:"Why Do So Many Russians Say They Support the War in Ukraine?"
1536:
Survey Research in the United States: Roots and Emergence 1960
1164:
street poll. He faced up to 10 years in prison under Russia's
1078:
858:
A widely publicized failure of opinion polling to date in the
803:
Voter turnout by race/ethnicity, 2008 US presidential election
741:
others. For instance, testing a questionnaire can be done by:
123:
27:
3715:
1971:
Polling and the public : what every citizen should know
1916:
Polling and the public : what every citizen should know
1877:
Polling and the public : what every citizen should know
1670:
Polling and the public : what every citizen should know
1445:, Thousand Oaks: SAGE Publications, Inc., pp. 170â171,
2944:
The Gallup Poll Cumulative Index: Public Opinion, 1935â1997
2694:"David S. Broder: The best political reporter of his time"
1384:
poll, so that credit for the first polls should go to the
1376:
election forecasts prior to 1900. It now appears that the
1039:
not required, thus allowing another candidate to win. For
3581:
Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey
2915:(1951), massive compilation of many public opinion polls
1973:(Ninth ed.). Thousand Oaks, California. p. 82.
1879:(Ninth ed.). Thousand Oaks, California. p. 75.
2417:"This much is clear: 100% of pollsters have got no idea"
571:
Another way to reduce the margin of error is to rely on
1725:, National Council on Public Polls Retrieved 2016-06-05
1095:
449:) for modelling and predicting voting intention polls.
203:(although strictly a poll is an actual election), is a
152:
89:
61:
55:
3077:
Journal of International and Comparative Social Policy
2875:
Polling and the Public. What Every Citizen Should Know
2008:
Government Surveillance: A Question Wording Experiment
1716:
20 Questions Journalists Should Ask About Poll Results
1611:
Polling and the public: what every citizen should know
487:. The results for one day showed Democratic candidate
445:
content (such as posts on the micro-blogging platform
307:'s research found that the error was mainly caused by
2986:
Trends in Public Opinion: A Compendium of Survey Data
2534:
The Broken Compass: How British Politics Lost its Way
2152:
Pew Research Center, 2010-11-22; Retrieved 2016-06-05
1372:
survey during the 1896 presidential campaign and the
551:
Polls based on samples of populations are subject to
5628:
Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH)
2984:
Niemi, Richard G., John Mueller, Tom W. Smith, eds.
953:
may not have won the election over Hillary Clinton.
491:
with an eleven-point lead over Republican candidate
237:
Wilmington American Watchman and Delaware Advertiser
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European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research
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http://transition.fcc.gov/cgb/policy/TCPA-Rules.pdf
920:to hold a one-seat majority and retain government.
41:Certain historical revisions of this page may meet
2892:Polls and Surveys: Understanding What They Tell Us
2618:
2166:. Pew Research Center Publications. Archived from
2047:"The Seven Stages of Public Opinion Public Agenda"
2027:What's In A Name? Global Warming vs Climate Change
1209:Historical polling for U.S. Presidential elections
299:, its survey of 2.3 million voters suggested that
268:'s election as president. Mailing out millions of
219:. A person who conducts polls is referred to as a
2813:"In Russia, opinion polls are a political weapon"
2687:
2685:
2476:"Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election"
1794:"About Response Rates: Some Unresolved Questions"
1735:Margin of Sampling Error and Credibility Interval
1356:other historical periods. Some have credited the
924:Social media as a source of opinion on candidates
3642:American Association for Public Opinion Research
3601:National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey
3123:American Association for Public Opinion Research
2536:. Continuum International Publishing Group Ltd.
2474:Allcott, Hunt; Gentzkow, Matthew (Spring 2017).
1264:American Association for Public Opinion Research
5176:Multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS)
2946:(1999) lists 10,000+ questions, but no results.
2731:, Library of Parliament, Canada, archived from
2640:Willems, Jurgen; Meyfroodt, Kenn (2024-01-30).
3596:List of household surveys in the United States
733:measures such as reliability coefficients, and
405:Voter polling questionnaire on display at the
360:that was almost alone in correctly predicting
3731:
3662:World Association for Public Opinion Research
3169:
2953:3 vol (1972) summarizes results of each poll.
2572:Irwin, Galen A. and Joop J. M. Van Holsteyn.
2446:"News Use Across Social Media Platforms 2016"
2164:"How Serious Is Polling's Cell-Only Problem?"
1587:
1585:
1269:World Association for Public Opinion Research
1151:stated in 2015 that drawing conclusions from
338:, after having met Gallup, created IFOP, the
233:Raleigh Star and North Carolina State Gazette
137:The examples and perspective in this article
8:
3611:Suffolk University Political Research Center
3089:24.92 (2015): 197â202; polls in US and China
2720:
2718:
1559:
1557:
1071:thus even aggravate political polarization.
1002:The opposite of the bandwagon effect is the
904:In New Zealand, the polls leading up to the
590:then one has to contend with errors in both
53:The revisions requested to be redacted are:
2190:"More Pollsters Interviewing By Cell Phone"
1547:G. Rowley, K. Barker, V. Callaghan (1986) â
1486:. Princeton University Press. p. vii.
251:by 335 votes to 169 in the contest for the
5785:
5772:
5689:
5495:
5364:
5339:
5110:
5086:
4814:
4597:
4398:
4385:
4168:
4155:
3794:
3785:
3772:
3738:
3724:
3716:
3176:
3162:
3154:
3029:, Patricia F. Phalen, Lawrence W. Lichty;
2951:The Gallup Poll; Public Opinion, 1935â1971
1993:: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (
1899:: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (
1692:: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (
1406:"Why the 1936 Literary Digest Poll Failed"
763:Involuntary facades and false correlations
276:also correctly predicted the victories of
2665:
2494:
1482:Cantril, Hadley; Strunk, Mildred (1951).
1477:
1475:
1353:American Watchman and Delaware Advertiser
847:Telephone Consumer Protection Act of 1991
560:whole population is often expressed as a
179:Learn how and when to remove this message
2890:Bradburn, Norman M. and Seymour Sudman.
2568:
2566:
2450:Pew Research Center's Journalism Project
1380:merely was reporting the results of the
1259:Roper Center for Public Opinion Research
709:percent) expressed that same sentiment.
90:the history with auto-selected revisions
49:that have been removed in the meantime.
3621:Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
1443:Encyclopedia of Survey Research Methods
1305:
653:also biases elections in the same way.
5702:KaplanâMeier estimator (product limit)
3606:New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study
3553:Comparative Study of Electoral Systems
2991:Oskamp, Stuart and P. Wesley Schultz;
2275:
2264:
1986:
1892:
1685:
1041:party-list proportional representation
315:sympathies. At the same time, Gallup,
2972:Presidential Polls and the News Media
2883:, "Public Opinion does not exist" in
1604:
1602:
1600:
1598:
1349:Star and North Carolina State Gazette
1018:. As he was then a Cabinet Minister,
788:In some places many people have only
720:The most effective controls, used by
7:
6012:
5712:Accelerated failure time (AFT) model
2930:Public Opinion, Polls, and Democracy
2397:from the original on 30 January 2019
1969:Asher, Herbert B. (16 August 2016).
1950:from the original on 28 October 2020
1914:Asher, Herbert B. (16 August 2016).
1875:Asher, Herbert B. (16 August 2016).
1844:"Episode 714: Can A Game Show Lose?"
1668:Asher, Herbert B. (16 August 2016).
1432:
1430:
1016:1997 United Kingdom general election
681:In opinion polling, there are also "
543:); these can be more controversial.
340:Institut Français d'Opinion Publique
6024:
5307:Analysis of variance (ANOVA, anova)
3652:International Statistical Institute
3021:The Voter's Guide to Election Polls
2692:Kaiser, Robert G. (March 9, 2011).
2240:Blumberg SJ, Luke JV (2007-05-14).
1043:opinion polling helps voters avoid
944:stories were more widely shared on
822:The potential sources of bias are:
438:generally considered professional.
5402:CochranâMantelâHaenszel statistics
4028:Pearson product-moment correlation
3543:American National Election Studies
3533:List of comparative social surveys
3033:Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 2000.
2667:1854/LU-01HNDE8TMQF8BFNFMTD2P3A21T
2350:"The Cellphone Problem, Revisited"
2324:"More Cell Phone Data from Gallup"
2049:. Publicagenda.org. Archived from
622:Survey results may be affected by
103:Knowledge (XXG):Copyright problems
25:
2625:. Vancouver: UBC Press. pp.
2389:McCulloch, Craig (2 April 2017).
2378:. University of California Press.
2298:"The Cellphone effect, continued"
1439:"Crossley, Archibald (1896â1985)"
929:match traditional opinion polls.
272:and simply counting the returns,
6023:
6011:
5999:
5986:
5985:
3060:Russian Journal of Communication
2728:Public opinion polling in Canada
2483:Journal of Economic Perspectives
1856:from the original on 1 July 2020
1082:
1047:their vote on a party below the
195:, often simply referred to as a
128:
32:
5661:Least-squares spectral analysis
2832:Yaffa, Joshua (29 March 2022).
2704:from the original on 2011-06-29
2514:from the original on 2017-10-18
2456:from the original on 2017-01-15
2427:from the original on 2020-06-03
2356:from the original on 2009-01-06
2322:Blumenthal, Mark (2008-10-17).
2304:from the original on 2008-12-04
2254:from the original on 2009-06-06
2247:. Centers for Disease Control.
2214:Blumenthal, Mark (2008-07-17).
2188:Blumenthal, Mark (2008-09-19).
1806:from the original on 2017-07-20
1650:from the original on 2012-11-04
1571:from the original on 2015-11-11
1490:from the original on 2009-06-29
1416:from the original on 2022-01-04
934:2016 U.S. presidential election
547:Margin of error due to sampling
4642:Mean-unbiased minimum-variance
2970:Lavrakas, Paul J. et al. eds.
2592:Scandinavian Political Studies
2560:, page 42. Random House, 1993.
2326:. Pollster.com. Archived from
2192:. Pollster.com. Archived from
1:
5955:Geographic information system
5171:Simultaneous equations models
3095:Global Environmental Politics
3087:Journal of Contemporary China
2937:Public Opinion in a Democracy
2925:(1987), the standard history.
2725:Claude Emery (January 1994),
2658:10.1080/09540962.2024.2306912
2646:Public Money & Management
2558:Safire's Political Dictionary
2216:"New Pew data on cell phones"
1214:List of polling organizations
1143:Opinion poll in dictatorships
1030:but opinion polls showed the
872:1948 US presidential election
356:launched a subsidiary in the
5138:Coefficient of determination
4749:Uniformly most powerful test
2374:Campbell, W. Joseph (2020).
2162:Keeter, Scott (2007-06-27).
1514:. Basic Books. p. 235.
417:and Internet based polling.
5707:Proportional hazards models
5651:Spectral density estimation
5633:Vector autoregression (VAR)
5067:Maximum posterior estimator
4299:Randomized controlled trial
3586:International Social Survey
2949:Gallup, George Horace, ed.
2348:Silver, Nate (2008-07-22).
1824:Response Rates: An Overview
1484:"Public Opinion, 1935â1946"
1437:Dietrich, Bryce J. (2008),
819:, than polls that did not.
155:, discuss the issue on the
6103:
5467:Multivariate distributions
3887:Average absolute deviation
2621:Voting Behaviour in Canada
2218:. Pollster. Archived from
1940:"Question Wording - AAPOR"
1767:Will Oremus (2012-05-17).
1644:"About the Tracking Polls"
1609:Asher, Herbert B. (2017).
1327:10.1177/107769907204900219
1136:Western democratic nations
1120:1976 presidential campaign
1056:Voting Behaviour in Canada
889:, and Labour's victory in
504:Deliberative opinion polls
397:Sample and polling methods
241:1824 presidential election
141:the English-speaking world
5981:
5784:
5771:
5455:Structural equation model
5363:
5338:
5109:
5085:
4817:
4791:Score/Lagrange multiplier
4397:
4384:
4206:Sample size determination
4167:
4154:
3784:
3771:
3753:
3670:
3616:The Phillips Academy Poll
3444:Exploratory data analysis
3297:Sample size determination
2913:Public Opinion, 1935â1946
2911:and Mildred Strunk, eds.
2766:10.1080/00344890208523210
1792:Langer, Gary (May 2003).
1404:Squire, Peverill (1988).
1274:Sample size determination
1239:Political data scientists
1179:Deliberative opinion poll
423:Angus Reid Public Opinion
6087:Surveys (human research)
5950:Environmental statistics
5472:Elliptical distributions
5265:Generalized linear model
5194:Simple linear regression
4964:HodgesâLehmann estimator
4421:Probability distribution
4330:Stochastic approximation
3892:Coefficient of variation
2877:(4th ed. CQ Press, 1998)
1410:Public Opinion Quarterly
1358:Harrisburg Pennsylvanian
1166:2022 war censorship laws
908:predicted the governing
862:was the prediction that
809:US presidential election
770:self-fulfilling prophecy
526:Potential for inaccuracy
372:, led by wartime leader
253:United States Presidency
5610:Cross-correlation (XCF)
5218:Non-standard predictors
4652:LehmannâScheffĂ© theorem
4325:Adaptive clinical trial
3557:Emerson College Polling
3449:Multivariate statistics
3292:Nonprobability sampling
3148:The Pew Research Center
2960:(2 vol. Abc-clio, 2004)
2604:10.1111/1467-9477.12087
2586:Fredén, Annika (2017).
2352:. FiveThirtyEight.com.
2300:. FiveThirtyEight.com.
685:", otherwise known as "
651:plurality voting system
647:plurality voting system
407:Smithsonian Institution
143:and do not represent a
6006:Mathematics portal
5827:Engineering statistics
5735:NelsonâAalen estimator
5312:Analysis of covariance
5199:Ordinary least squares
5123:Pearson product-moment
4527:Statistical functional
4438:Empirical distribution
4271:Controlled experiments
4000:Frequency distribution
3778:Descriptive statistics
3566:European Social Survey
3548:Asian Barometer Survey
3439:Descriptive statistics
3324:Cross-sequential study
3277:Simple random sampling
3079:35.2 (2019): 227â237.
2993:Attitudes and Opinions
2899:Gauging Public Opinion
2887:, London, Sage (1995).
2274:Cite journal requires
1508:Jackson Lears (1995).
1158:state-controlled media
804:
747:cognitive interviewing
409:
6077:Sampling (statistics)
5922:Population statistics
5864:System identification
5598:Autocorrelation (ACF)
5526:Exponential smoothing
5440:Discriminant analysis
5435:Canonical correlation
5299:Partition of variance
5161:Regression validation
5005:(JonckheereâTerpstra)
4904:Likelihood-ratio test
4593:Frequentist inference
4505:Locationâscale family
4426:Sampling distribution
4391:Statistical inference
4358:Cross-sectional study
4345:Observational studies
4304:Randomized experiment
4133:Stem-and-leaf display
3935:Central limit theorem
3576:General Social Survey
3459:Statistical inference
3319:Cross-sectional study
3143:UCB Libraries GovPubs
3067:American psychologist
3055:39.3 (2020): 462â470.
3019:Traugott, Michael W.
2885:Sociology in Question
2521:– via Stanford.
2393:. Radio New Zealand.
1852:. NPR. 27 July 2016.
1451:10.4135/9781412963947
1244:Political forecasting
1075:Effect on politicians
1026:was believed to be a
906:1993 general election
802:
497:polling organizations
415:electronic clipboards
404:
366:1945 general election
205:human research survey
99:Note to the requestor
5845:Probabilistic design
5430:Principal components
5273:Exponential families
5225:Nonlinear regression
5204:General linear model
5166:Mixed effects models
5156:Errors and residuals
5133:Confounding variable
5035:Bayesian probability
5013:Van der Waerden test
5003:Ordered alternative
4768:Multiple comparisons
4647:RaoâBlackwellization
4610:Estimating equations
4566:Statistical distance
4284:Factorial experiment
3817:Arithmetic-Geometric
3497:Audience measurement
3434:Level of measurement
3267:Sampling for surveys
3107:10.1162/glep_a_00215
3062:6#2 (2014): 173â176.
2998:Robinson, Claude E.
2942:Gallup, Alec M. ed.
2496:10.1257/jep.31.2.211
1315:Journalism Quarterly
1147:The director of the
878:Electoral College).
665:Wording of questions
557:law of large numbers
217:confidence intervals
161:create a new article
153:improve this article
139:deal primarily with
5917:Official statistics
5840:Methods engineering
5521:Seasonal adjustment
5289:Poisson regressions
5209:Bayesian regression
5148:Regression analysis
5128:Partial correlation
5100:Regression analysis
4699:Prediction interval
4694:Likelihood interval
4684:Confidence interval
4676:Interval estimation
4637:Unbiased estimators
4455:Model specification
4335:Up-and-down designs
4023:Partial correlation
3979:Index of dispersion
3897:Interquartile range
3657:Pew Research Center
3626:World Values Survey
3369:Specification error
3287:Stratified sampling
3069:75.3 (2020): 301+.
2698:The Washington Post
1534:Jean M. Converse,"
1351:and the Wilmington
1219:Metallic Metals Act
1189:Electoral geography
1049:electoral threshold
1022:'s constituency of
783:The Literary Digest
485:Gallup Organization
344:Why die for Danzig?
334:In September 1938,
325:The Literary Digest
274:The Literary Digest
261:The Literary Digest
18:Public opinion poll
6062:Survey methodology
5937:Spatial statistics
5817:Medical statistics
5717:First hitting time
5671:Whittle likelihood
5322:Degrees of freedom
5317:Multivariate ANOVA
5250:Heteroscedasticity
5062:Bayesian estimator
5027:Bayesian inference
4876:KolmogorovâSmirnov
4761:Randomization test
4731:Testing hypotheses
4704:Tolerance interval
4615:Maximum likelihood
4510:Exponential family
4443:Density estimation
4403:Statistical theory
4363:Natural experiment
4309:Scientific control
4226:Survey methodology
3912:Standard deviation
3464:Statistical models
3364:Non-sampling error
3262:Statistical sample
3202:Collection methods
3045:Additional sources
3036:Young, Michael L.
3005:Robinson, Matthew
2921:Converse, Jean M.
2148:2016-05-18 at the
2130:2015-05-21 at the
2032:2016-08-13 at the
2013:2016-05-18 at the
1829:2019-07-12 at the
1740:2016-07-07 at the
1721:2016-06-04 at the
1423:– via Issuu.
1289:Types of democracy
1199:Everett Carll Ladd
1094:. You can help by
969:The Broken Compass
805:
724:researchers, are:
698:Roper Organization
410:
370:Conservative Party
317:Archibald Crossley
309:participation bias
290:Franklin Roosevelt
211:from a particular
6039:
6038:
5977:
5976:
5973:
5972:
5912:National accounts
5882:Actuarial science
5874:Social statistics
5767:
5766:
5763:
5762:
5759:
5758:
5694:Survival function
5679:
5678:
5541:Granger causality
5382:Contingency table
5357:Survival analysis
5334:
5333:
5330:
5329:
5186:Linear regression
5081:
5080:
5077:
5076:
5052:Credible interval
5021:
5020:
4804:
4803:
4620:Method of moments
4489:Parametric family
4450:Statistical model
4380:
4379:
4376:
4375:
4294:Random assignment
4216:Statistical power
4150:
4149:
4146:
4145:
3995:Contingency table
3965:
3964:
3832:Generalized/power
3713:
3712:
3429:Contingency table
3404:Processing errors
3389:Non-response bias
3379:Measurement error
3359:Systematic errors
3012:Rogers, Lindsay.
2956:Geer, John Gray.
2897:Cantril, Hadley.
2556:Safire, William,
2543:978-1-84706-405-9
1980:978-1-5063-5242-8
1925:978-1-5063-5242-8
1886:978-1-5063-5242-8
1679:978-1-5063-5242-8
1620:978-1-5063-5242-8
1538:(1987) pp: 114-24
1382:American Watchman
1234:Political analyst
1112:
1111:
1024:Enfield Southgate
790:mobile telephones
700:, concerning the
672:leading questions
640:spiral of silence
608:non-response bias
378:Allied occupation
374:Winston Churchill
249:John Quincy Adams
189:
188:
181:
163:, as appropriate.
118:
117:
113:
106:
93:
16:(Redirected from
6094:
6072:Social influence
6057:Types of polling
6027:
6026:
6015:
6014:
6004:
6003:
5989:
5988:
5892:Crime statistics
5786:
5773:
5690:
5656:Fourier analysis
5643:Frequency domain
5623:
5570:
5536:Structural break
5496:
5445:Cluster analysis
5392:Log-linear model
5365:
5340:
5281:
5255:Homoscedasticity
5111:
5087:
5006:
4998:
4990:
4989:(KruskalâWallis)
4974:
4959:
4914:Cross validation
4899:
4881:AndersonâDarling
4828:
4815:
4786:Likelihood-ratio
4778:Parametric tests
4756:Permutation test
4739:1- & 2-tails
4630:Minimum distance
4602:Point estimation
4598:
4549:Optimal decision
4500:
4399:
4386:
4368:Quasi-experiment
4318:Adaptive designs
4169:
4156:
4033:Rank correlation
3795:
3786:
3773:
3740:
3733:
3726:
3717:
3424:Categorical data
3178:
3171:
3164:
3155:
3118:
3027:James G. Webster
2977:Moore, David W.
2935:Gallup, George.
2928:Crespi, Irving.
2881:Bourdieu, Pierre
2873:Asher, Herbert:
2862:
2861:
2860:. 30 April 2023.
2848:
2842:
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2018:
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1764:
1758:
1753:Lynch, Scott M.
1751:
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1434:
1425:
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1401:
1395:
1394:
1310:
1284:Swing (politics)
1224:Open access poll
1107:
1104:
1086:
1079:
1020:Michael Portillo
1012:strategic voting
982:bandwagon effect
962:Effect on voters
683:loaded questions
602:Nonresponse bias
184:
177:
173:
170:
164:
132:
131:
124:
108:
97:
83:
72:
36:
28:
21:
6102:
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6097:
6096:
6095:
6093:
6092:
6091:
6042:
6041:
6040:
6035:
5998:
5969:
5931:
5868:
5854:quality control
5821:
5803:Clinical trials
5780:
5755:
5739:
5727:Hazard function
5721:
5675:
5637:
5621:
5584:
5580:BreuschâGodfrey
5568:
5545:
5485:
5460:Factor analysis
5406:
5387:Graphical model
5359:
5326:
5293:
5279:
5259:
5213:
5180:
5142:
5105:
5104:
5073:
5017:
5004:
4996:
4988:
4972:
4957:
4936:Rank statistics
4930:
4909:Model selection
4897:
4855:Goodness of fit
4849:
4826:
4800:
4772:
4725:
4670:
4659:Median unbiased
4587:
4498:
4431:Order statistic
4393:
4372:
4339:
4313:
4265:
4220:
4163:
4161:Data collection
4142:
4054:
4009:
3983:
3961:
3921:
3873:
3790:Continuous data
3780:
3767:
3749:
3744:
3714:
3709:
3666:
3630:
3591:LatinobarĂłmetro
3521:
3507:Market research
3485:
3410:
3384:Response errors
3330:
3304:Research design
3272:Random sampling
3238:
3222:Semi-structured
3194:Data collection
3188:
3186:survey research
3182:
3135:
3092:
3047:
3023:3rd ed. (2004).
2967:(1999) textbook
2909:Cantril, Hadley
2870:
2865:
2850:
2849:
2845:
2831:
2830:
2826:
2821:. 9 March 2022.
2811:
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2160:
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2150:Wayback Machine
2141:
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2132:Wayback Machine
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2110:
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2065:
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2034:Wayback Machine
2025:
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2015:Wayback Machine
2006:
2002:
1985:
1981:
1968:
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1831:Wayback Machine
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1374:New York Herald
1312:
1311:
1307:
1303:
1298:
1174:
1145:
1128:
1108:
1102:
1099:
1092:needs expansion
1077:
964:
959:
926:
868:Harry S. Truman
856:
779:
765:
694:Double-Negative
687:trick questions
667:
620:
604:
562:margin of error
549:
541:Shy Tory Factor
528:
515:
506:
472:
455:
453:Benchmark polls
399:
364:victory in the
282:Calvin Coolidge
229:
185:
174:
168:
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150:
133:
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122:
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81:
69:
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22:
15:
12:
11:
5:
6100:
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6079:
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6069:
6067:Public opinion
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5995:
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5809:
5800:
5798:Bioinformatics
5794:
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5639:
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5612:
5607:
5606:
5605:
5603:partial (PACF)
5594:
5592:
5586:
5585:
5583:
5582:
5577:
5572:
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5559:
5553:
5551:
5550:Specific tests
5547:
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5508:
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5500:
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5486:
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5450:Classification
5447:
5442:
5437:
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5422:
5416:
5414:
5408:
5407:
5405:
5404:
5399:
5397:McNemar's test
5394:
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5371:
5361:
5360:
5343:
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5327:
5325:
5324:
5319:
5314:
5309:
5303:
5301:
5295:
5294:
5292:
5291:
5275:
5269:
5267:
5261:
5260:
5258:
5257:
5252:
5247:
5242:
5237:
5235:Semiparametric
5232:
5227:
5221:
5219:
5215:
5214:
5212:
5211:
5206:
5201:
5196:
5190:
5188:
5182:
5181:
5179:
5178:
5173:
5168:
5163:
5158:
5152:
5150:
5144:
5143:
5141:
5140:
5135:
5130:
5125:
5119:
5117:
5107:
5106:
5103:
5102:
5097:
5091:
5090:
5083:
5082:
5079:
5078:
5075:
5074:
5072:
5071:
5070:
5069:
5059:
5054:
5049:
5048:
5047:
5042:
5031:
5029:
5023:
5022:
5019:
5018:
5016:
5015:
5010:
5009:
5008:
5000:
4992:
4976:
4973:(MannâWhitney)
4968:
4967:
4966:
4953:
4952:
4951:
4940:
4938:
4932:
4931:
4929:
4928:
4927:
4926:
4921:
4916:
4906:
4901:
4898:(ShapiroâWilk)
4893:
4888:
4883:
4878:
4873:
4865:
4859:
4857:
4851:
4850:
4848:
4847:
4839:
4830:
4818:
4812:
4810:Specific tests
4806:
4805:
4802:
4801:
4799:
4798:
4793:
4788:
4782:
4780:
4774:
4773:
4771:
4770:
4765:
4764:
4763:
4753:
4752:
4751:
4741:
4735:
4733:
4727:
4726:
4724:
4723:
4722:
4721:
4716:
4706:
4701:
4696:
4691:
4686:
4680:
4678:
4672:
4671:
4669:
4668:
4663:
4662:
4661:
4656:
4655:
4654:
4649:
4634:
4633:
4632:
4627:
4622:
4617:
4606:
4604:
4595:
4589:
4588:
4586:
4585:
4580:
4575:
4574:
4573:
4563:
4558:
4557:
4556:
4546:
4545:
4544:
4539:
4534:
4524:
4519:
4514:
4513:
4512:
4507:
4502:
4486:
4485:
4484:
4479:
4474:
4464:
4463:
4462:
4457:
4447:
4446:
4445:
4435:
4434:
4433:
4423:
4418:
4413:
4407:
4405:
4395:
4394:
4389:
4382:
4381:
4378:
4377:
4374:
4373:
4371:
4370:
4365:
4360:
4355:
4349:
4347:
4341:
4340:
4338:
4337:
4332:
4327:
4321:
4319:
4315:
4314:
4312:
4311:
4306:
4301:
4296:
4291:
4286:
4281:
4275:
4273:
4267:
4266:
4264:
4263:
4261:Standard error
4258:
4253:
4248:
4247:
4246:
4241:
4230:
4228:
4222:
4221:
4219:
4218:
4213:
4208:
4203:
4198:
4193:
4191:Optimal design
4188:
4183:
4177:
4175:
4165:
4164:
4159:
4152:
4151:
4148:
4147:
4144:
4143:
4141:
4140:
4135:
4130:
4125:
4120:
4115:
4110:
4105:
4100:
4095:
4090:
4085:
4080:
4075:
4070:
4064:
4062:
4056:
4055:
4053:
4052:
4047:
4046:
4045:
4040:
4030:
4025:
4019:
4017:
4011:
4010:
4008:
4007:
4002:
3997:
3991:
3989:
3988:Summary tables
3985:
3984:
3982:
3981:
3975:
3973:
3967:
3966:
3963:
3962:
3960:
3959:
3958:
3957:
3952:
3947:
3937:
3931:
3929:
3923:
3922:
3920:
3919:
3914:
3909:
3904:
3899:
3894:
3889:
3883:
3881:
3875:
3874:
3872:
3871:
3866:
3861:
3860:
3859:
3854:
3849:
3844:
3839:
3834:
3829:
3824:
3822:Contraharmonic
3819:
3814:
3803:
3801:
3792:
3782:
3781:
3776:
3769:
3768:
3766:
3765:
3760:
3754:
3751:
3750:
3745:
3743:
3742:
3735:
3728:
3720:
3711:
3710:
3708:
3707:
3706:
3705:
3700:
3695:
3690:
3685:
3677:
3671:
3668:
3667:
3665:
3664:
3659:
3654:
3649:
3644:
3638:
3636:
3632:
3631:
3629:
3628:
3623:
3618:
3613:
3608:
3603:
3598:
3593:
3588:
3583:
3578:
3573:
3568:
3563:
3558:
3555:
3550:
3545:
3540:
3535:
3529:
3527:
3523:
3522:
3520:
3519:
3517:Public opinion
3514:
3509:
3504:
3499:
3493:
3491:
3487:
3486:
3484:
3483:
3482:
3481:
3476:
3471:
3461:
3456:
3451:
3446:
3441:
3436:
3431:
3426:
3420:
3418:
3412:
3411:
3409:
3408:
3407:
3406:
3401:
3399:Pseudo-opinion
3396:
3394:Coverage error
3391:
3386:
3381:
3376:
3371:
3361:
3356:
3351:
3349:Standard error
3346:
3344:Sampling error
3340:
3338:
3332:
3331:
3329:
3328:
3327:
3326:
3321:
3316:
3311:
3301:
3300:
3299:
3294:
3289:
3284:
3282:Quota sampling
3279:
3274:
3264:
3259:
3257:Sampling frame
3254:
3248:
3246:
3240:
3239:
3237:
3236:
3235:
3234:
3229:
3224:
3219:
3209:
3204:
3198:
3196:
3190:
3189:
3183:
3181:
3180:
3173:
3166:
3158:
3152:
3151:
3145:
3134:
3133:External links
3131:
3130:
3129:
3119:
3090:
3083:
3073:
3063:
3056:
3053:Health Affairs
3046:
3043:
3042:
3041:
3034:
3024:
3017:
3010:
3003:
2996:
2989:
2982:
2975:
2968:
2965:Public Opinion
2961:
2954:
2947:
2940:
2933:
2926:
2919:
2906:
2895:
2888:
2878:
2869:
2866:
2864:
2863:
2843:
2838:The New Yorker
2824:
2804:
2779:
2754:Representation
2744:
2714:
2681:
2652:(3): 185â186.
2632:
2609:
2598:(3): 247â264.
2578:
2562:
2549:
2542:
2524:
2489:(2): 211â236.
2466:
2452:. 2016-05-26.
2437:
2423:. 2019-06-10.
2408:
2381:
2366:
2340:
2314:
2296:(2008-11-02).
2285:
2276:|journal=
2232:
2206:
2180:
2154:
2135:
2117:
2108:
2099:
2090:
2081:
2072:
2063:
2038:
2019:
2000:
1979:
1961:
1931:
1924:
1906:
1885:
1867:
1835:
1816:
1784:
1759:
1746:
1727:
1708:
1699:
1678:
1660:
1635:
1626:
1619:
1594:
1581:
1553:
1540:
1527:
1520:
1500:
1471:
1459:
1426:
1396:
1370:Chicago Record
1321:(2): 361â365.
1304:
1302:
1299:
1297:
1296:
1291:
1286:
1281:
1276:
1271:
1266:
1261:
1256:
1251:
1246:
1241:
1236:
1231:
1226:
1221:
1216:
1211:
1206:
1201:
1196:
1191:
1186:
1181:
1175:
1173:
1170:
1144:
1141:
1134:However, most
1127:
1124:
1110:
1109:
1089:
1087:
1076:
1073:
986:William Safire
974:Peter Hitchens
963:
960:
958:
955:
932:Regarding the
925:
922:
910:National Party
855:
852:
851:
850:
843:
835:
834:
831:
828:
813:coverage error
778:
775:
764:
761:
760:
759:
756:
753:
750:
738:
737:
734:
666:
663:
636:Bradley effect
619:
616:
612:selection bias
603:
600:
553:sampling error
548:
545:
537:Bradley effect
527:
524:
514:
511:
505:
502:
493:George W. Bush
476:moving average
471:
470:Tracking polls
468:
459:benchmark poll
454:
451:
398:
395:
382:denazification
358:United Kingdom
286:Herbert Hoover
278:Warren Harding
266:Woodrow Wilson
245:Andrew Jackson
228:
225:
209:public opinion
187:
186:
147:of the subject
145:worldwide view
136:
134:
127:
121:Type of survey
120:
116:
115:
110:Note to others
74:Note to admins
70:
67:
66:
59: to
50:
40:
38:
31:
26:
24:
14:
13:
10:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
6099:
6088:
6085:
6083:
6080:
6078:
6075:
6073:
6070:
6068:
6065:
6063:
6060:
6058:
6055:
6053:
6050:
6049:
6047:
6032:
6031:
6022:
6020:
6019:
6010:
6008:
6007:
6002:
5996:
5994:
5993:
5984:
5983:
5980:
5966:
5963:
5961:
5960:Geostatistics
5958:
5956:
5953:
5951:
5948:
5946:
5943:
5942:
5940:
5938:
5934:
5928:
5927:Psychometrics
5925:
5923:
5920:
5918:
5915:
5913:
5910:
5908:
5905:
5903:
5900:
5898:
5895:
5893:
5890:
5888:
5885:
5883:
5880:
5879:
5877:
5875:
5871:
5865:
5862:
5860:
5857:
5855:
5851:
5848:
5846:
5843:
5841:
5838:
5836:
5833:
5832:
5830:
5828:
5824:
5818:
5815:
5813:
5810:
5808:
5804:
5801:
5799:
5796:
5795:
5793:
5791:
5790:Biostatistics
5787:
5783:
5779:
5774:
5770:
5752:
5751:Log-rank test
5749:
5748:
5746:
5742:
5736:
5733:
5732:
5730:
5728:
5724:
5718:
5715:
5713:
5710:
5708:
5705:
5703:
5700:
5699:
5697:
5695:
5691:
5688:
5686:
5682:
5672:
5669:
5667:
5664:
5662:
5659:
5657:
5654:
5652:
5649:
5648:
5646:
5644:
5640:
5634:
5631:
5629:
5626:
5624:
5622:(BoxâJenkins)
5618:
5616:
5613:
5611:
5608:
5604:
5601:
5600:
5599:
5596:
5595:
5593:
5591:
5587:
5581:
5578:
5576:
5575:DurbinâWatson
5573:
5571:
5565:
5563:
5560:
5558:
5557:DickeyâFuller
5555:
5554:
5552:
5548:
5542:
5539:
5537:
5534:
5532:
5531:Cointegration
5529:
5527:
5524:
5522:
5519:
5517:
5514:
5512:
5509:
5507:
5506:Decomposition
5504:
5503:
5501:
5497:
5494:
5492:
5488:
5478:
5475:
5474:
5473:
5470:
5469:
5468:
5465:
5461:
5458:
5457:
5456:
5453:
5451:
5448:
5446:
5443:
5441:
5438:
5436:
5433:
5431:
5428:
5426:
5423:
5421:
5418:
5417:
5415:
5413:
5409:
5403:
5400:
5398:
5395:
5393:
5390:
5388:
5385:
5383:
5380:
5378:
5377:Cohen's kappa
5375:
5374:
5372:
5370:
5366:
5362:
5358:
5354:
5350:
5346:
5341:
5337:
5323:
5320:
5318:
5315:
5313:
5310:
5308:
5305:
5304:
5302:
5300:
5296:
5290:
5286:
5282:
5276:
5274:
5271:
5270:
5268:
5266:
5262:
5256:
5253:
5251:
5248:
5246:
5243:
5241:
5238:
5236:
5233:
5231:
5230:Nonparametric
5228:
5226:
5223:
5222:
5220:
5216:
5210:
5207:
5205:
5202:
5200:
5197:
5195:
5192:
5191:
5189:
5187:
5183:
5177:
5174:
5172:
5169:
5167:
5164:
5162:
5159:
5157:
5154:
5153:
5151:
5149:
5145:
5139:
5136:
5134:
5131:
5129:
5126:
5124:
5121:
5120:
5118:
5116:
5112:
5108:
5101:
5098:
5096:
5093:
5092:
5088:
5084:
5068:
5065:
5064:
5063:
5060:
5058:
5055:
5053:
5050:
5046:
5043:
5041:
5038:
5037:
5036:
5033:
5032:
5030:
5028:
5024:
5014:
5011:
5007:
5001:
4999:
4993:
4991:
4985:
4984:
4983:
4980:
4979:Nonparametric
4977:
4975:
4969:
4965:
4962:
4961:
4960:
4954:
4950:
4949:Sample median
4947:
4946:
4945:
4942:
4941:
4939:
4937:
4933:
4925:
4922:
4920:
4917:
4915:
4912:
4911:
4910:
4907:
4905:
4902:
4900:
4894:
4892:
4889:
4887:
4884:
4882:
4879:
4877:
4874:
4872:
4870:
4866:
4864:
4861:
4860:
4858:
4856:
4852:
4846:
4844:
4840:
4838:
4836:
4831:
4829:
4824:
4820:
4819:
4816:
4813:
4811:
4807:
4797:
4794:
4792:
4789:
4787:
4784:
4783:
4781:
4779:
4775:
4769:
4766:
4762:
4759:
4758:
4757:
4754:
4750:
4747:
4746:
4745:
4742:
4740:
4737:
4736:
4734:
4732:
4728:
4720:
4717:
4715:
4712:
4711:
4710:
4707:
4705:
4702:
4700:
4697:
4695:
4692:
4690:
4687:
4685:
4682:
4681:
4679:
4677:
4673:
4667:
4664:
4660:
4657:
4653:
4650:
4648:
4645:
4644:
4643:
4640:
4639:
4638:
4635:
4631:
4628:
4626:
4623:
4621:
4618:
4616:
4613:
4612:
4611:
4608:
4607:
4605:
4603:
4599:
4596:
4594:
4590:
4584:
4581:
4579:
4576:
4572:
4569:
4568:
4567:
4564:
4562:
4559:
4555:
4554:loss function
4552:
4551:
4550:
4547:
4543:
4540:
4538:
4535:
4533:
4530:
4529:
4528:
4525:
4523:
4520:
4518:
4515:
4511:
4508:
4506:
4503:
4501:
4495:
4492:
4491:
4490:
4487:
4483:
4480:
4478:
4475:
4473:
4470:
4469:
4468:
4465:
4461:
4458:
4456:
4453:
4452:
4451:
4448:
4444:
4441:
4440:
4439:
4436:
4432:
4429:
4428:
4427:
4424:
4422:
4419:
4417:
4414:
4412:
4409:
4408:
4406:
4404:
4400:
4396:
4392:
4387:
4383:
4369:
4366:
4364:
4361:
4359:
4356:
4354:
4351:
4350:
4348:
4346:
4342:
4336:
4333:
4331:
4328:
4326:
4323:
4322:
4320:
4316:
4310:
4307:
4305:
4302:
4300:
4297:
4295:
4292:
4290:
4287:
4285:
4282:
4280:
4277:
4276:
4274:
4272:
4268:
4262:
4259:
4257:
4256:Questionnaire
4254:
4252:
4249:
4245:
4242:
4240:
4237:
4236:
4235:
4232:
4231:
4229:
4227:
4223:
4217:
4214:
4212:
4209:
4207:
4204:
4202:
4199:
4197:
4194:
4192:
4189:
4187:
4184:
4182:
4179:
4178:
4176:
4174:
4170:
4166:
4162:
4157:
4153:
4139:
4136:
4134:
4131:
4129:
4126:
4124:
4121:
4119:
4116:
4114:
4111:
4109:
4106:
4104:
4101:
4099:
4096:
4094:
4091:
4089:
4086:
4084:
4083:Control chart
4081:
4079:
4076:
4074:
4071:
4069:
4066:
4065:
4063:
4061:
4057:
4051:
4048:
4044:
4041:
4039:
4036:
4035:
4034:
4031:
4029:
4026:
4024:
4021:
4020:
4018:
4016:
4012:
4006:
4003:
4001:
3998:
3996:
3993:
3992:
3990:
3986:
3980:
3977:
3976:
3974:
3972:
3968:
3956:
3953:
3951:
3948:
3946:
3943:
3942:
3941:
3938:
3936:
3933:
3932:
3930:
3928:
3924:
3918:
3915:
3913:
3910:
3908:
3905:
3903:
3900:
3898:
3895:
3893:
3890:
3888:
3885:
3884:
3882:
3880:
3876:
3870:
3867:
3865:
3862:
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3561:Eurobarometer
3559:
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3549:
3546:
3544:
3541:
3539:
3538:Afrobarometer
3536:
3534:
3531:
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3528:
3526:Major surveys
3524:
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3508:
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3454:Psychometrics
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3416:Data analysis
3413:
3405:
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3377:
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3360:
3357:
3355:
3354:Sampling bias
3352:
3350:
3347:
3345:
3342:
3341:
3339:
3337:
3336:Survey errors
3333:
3325:
3322:
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3307:
3306:
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3298:
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3208:
3207:Questionnaire
3205:
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3200:
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3174:
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3165:
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3137:
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3132:
3128:
3124:
3120:
3116:
3112:
3108:
3104:
3101:(1): 79â106.
3100:
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2859:
2858:
2857:Novaya Gazeta
2853:
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2825:
2820:
2819:
2818:openDemocracy
2814:
2808:
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2775:
2771:
2767:
2763:
2759:
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2748:
2745:
2735:on 2010-07-30
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2330:on 2013-01-31
2329:
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2303:
2299:
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2281:
2268:
2250:
2243:
2236:
2233:
2222:on 2008-10-11
2221:
2217:
2210:
2207:
2196:on 2008-11-21
2195:
2191:
2184:
2181:
2170:on 2008-10-30
2169:
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2158:
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2147:
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2100:
2094:
2091:
2085:
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2067:
2064:
2053:on 2012-10-25
2052:
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2020:
2016:
2012:
2009:
2004:
2001:
1996:
1990:
1982:
1976:
1972:
1965:
1962:
1949:
1945:
1944:www.aapor.org
1941:
1935:
1932:
1927:
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1917:
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1521:9780465090754
1517:
1513:
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1504:
1501:
1489:
1485:
1478:
1476:
1472:
1462:
1460:9781412918084
1456:
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1431:
1427:
1415:
1411:
1407:
1400:
1397:
1393:
1391:
1387:
1383:
1379:
1378:Pennsylvanian
1375:
1371:
1367:
1366:Pennsylvanian
1363:
1359:
1354:
1350:
1344:
1340:
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1207:
1205:
1202:
1200:
1197:
1195:
1194:Europe Elects
1192:
1190:
1187:
1185:
1184:Entrance poll
1182:
1180:
1177:
1176:
1171:
1169:
1167:
1163:
1162:Radio Liberty
1159:
1154:
1150:
1149:Levada Center
1142:
1140:
1137:
1132:
1125:
1123:
1121:
1117:
1106:
1097:
1093:
1090:This section
1088:
1085:
1081:
1080:
1074:
1072:
1069:
1068:media framing
1063:
1059:
1057:
1052:
1050:
1046:
1042:
1037:
1036:Stephen Twigg
1033:
1029:
1025:
1021:
1017:
1013:
1008:
1005:
1000:
997:
996:George Gallup
993:
992:
987:
983:
978:
975:
971:
970:
961:
956:
954:
952:
947:
943:
939:
935:
930:
923:
921:
919:
915:
911:
907:
902:
900:
896:
895:2015 election
892:
891:February 1974
888:
884:
879:
875:
873:
869:
866:would defeat
865:
861:
860:United States
853:
848:
844:
842:co-operation.
840:
839:
838:
832:
829:
825:
824:
823:
820:
818:
814:
810:
801:
797:
793:
791:
786:
784:
777:Coverage bias
776:
774:
771:
762:
757:
754:
751:
748:
744:
743:
742:
735:
732:
727:
726:
725:
723:
718:
714:
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703:
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695:
690:
688:
684:
679:
675:
673:
664:
662:
660:
654:
652:
648:
643:
641:
637:
633:
629:
625:
624:response bias
618:Response bias
617:
615:
613:
609:
601:
599:
597:
593:
589:
585:
580:
576:
574:
573:poll averages
569:
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546:
544:
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510:
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428:
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416:
408:
403:
396:
394:
391:
385:
383:
379:
375:
371:
367:
363:
359:
355:
351:
349:
345:
341:
337:
336:Jean Stoetzel
332:
330:
326:
322:
318:
314:
310:
306:
305:George Gallup
302:
298:
293:
291:
288:in 1928, and
287:
283:
279:
275:
271:
267:
263:
262:
256:
254:
250:
246:
242:
239:prior to the
238:
234:
226:
224:
222:
218:
214:
210:
206:
202:
198:
194:
183:
180:
172:
162:
158:
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148:
146:
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135:
126:
125:
111:
107:
104:
100:
94:
91:
87:
79:
75:
64:
63:
58:
57:
52:
51:
48:
44:
43:criterion RD1
39:
35:
30:
29:
19:
6028:
6016:
5997:
5990:
5902:Econometrics
5852: /
5835:Chemometrics
5812:Epidemiology
5805: /
5778:Applications
5620:ARIMA model
5567:Q-statistic
5516:Stationarity
5412:Multivariate
5355: /
5351: /
5349:Multivariate
5347: /
5287: /
5283: /
5057:Bayes factor
4956:Signed rank
4868:
4842:
4834:
4822:
4517:Completeness
4353:Cohort study
4251:Opinion poll
4250:
4186:Missing data
4173:Study design
4128:Scatter plot
4050:Scatter plot
4043:Spearman's Ï
4005:Grouped data
3635:Associations
3512:Opinion poll
3511:
3490:Applications
3314:Cohort study
3227:Unstructured
3142:
3122:
3098:
3094:
3086:
3076:
3066:
3059:
3052:
3037:
3030:
3020:
3013:
3006:
2999:
2992:
2985:
2978:
2971:
2964:
2957:
2950:
2943:
2936:
2929:
2922:
2912:
2898:
2891:
2884:
2874:
2855:
2846:
2837:
2827:
2816:
2807:
2795:. Retrieved
2791:
2782:
2760:(1): 15â22.
2757:
2753:
2747:
2737:, retrieved
2733:the original
2727:
2706:. Retrieved
2697:
2649:
2645:
2635:
2620:
2612:
2595:
2591:
2581:
2573:
2557:
2552:
2533:
2527:
2516:. Retrieved
2486:
2482:
2469:
2458:. Retrieved
2449:
2440:
2429:. Retrieved
2420:
2411:
2399:. Retrieved
2384:
2375:
2369:
2358:. Retrieved
2343:
2332:. Retrieved
2328:the original
2317:
2306:. Retrieved
2294:Silver, Nate
2288:
2267:cite journal
2256:. Retrieved
2235:
2224:. Retrieved
2220:the original
2209:
2198:. Retrieved
2194:the original
2183:
2172:. Retrieved
2168:the original
2157:
2138:
2120:
2111:
2102:
2093:
2084:
2075:
2066:
2055:. Retrieved
2051:the original
2041:
2022:
2003:
1970:
1964:
1954:27 September
1952:. Retrieved
1943:
1934:
1915:
1909:
1876:
1870:
1858:. Retrieved
1849:Planet Money
1847:
1838:
1819:
1808:. Retrieved
1799:. ABC News.
1787:
1776:. Retrieved
1772:
1762:
1754:
1749:
1730:
1711:
1702:
1669:
1663:
1652:. Retrieved
1638:
1629:
1610:
1573:. Retrieved
1548:
1543:
1535:
1530:
1510:
1503:
1492:. Retrieved
1464:, retrieved
1442:
1418:. Retrieved
1409:
1399:
1389:
1385:
1381:
1377:
1373:
1369:
1365:
1362:Raleigh Star
1361:
1357:
1352:
1348:
1346:
1318:
1314:
1308:
1146:
1133:
1129:
1113:
1100:
1096:adding to it
1091:
1064:
1060:
1055:
1053:
1009:
1001:
989:
979:
967:
965:
951:Donald Trump
938:social media
931:
927:
903:
880:
876:
864:Thomas Dewey
857:
836:
821:
806:
794:
787:
782:
780:
766:
739:
731:psychometric
719:
715:
711:
691:
680:
676:
668:
655:
644:
621:
605:
595:
591:
587:
583:
581:
577:
570:
566:
550:
532:
529:
520:
516:
507:
481:
473:
464:
458:
456:
443:social media
440:
419:
411:
386:
352:
333:
329:Louis Harris
324:
294:
273:
259:
257:
236:
232:
230:
220:
200:
196:
193:opinion poll
192:
190:
175:
166:
138:
109:
98:
96:
73:
71:
60:
54:
6030:WikiProject
5945:Cartography
5907:Jurimetrics
5859:Reliability
5590:Time domain
5569:(LjungâBox)
5491:Time-series
5369:Categorical
5353:Time-series
5345:Categorical
5280:(Bernoulli)
5115:Correlation
5095:Correlation
4891:JarqueâBera
4863:Chi-squared
4625:M-estimator
4578:Asymptotics
4522:Sufficiency
4289:Interaction
4201:Replication
4181:Effect size
4138:Violin plot
4118:Radar chart
4098:Forest plot
4088:Correlogram
4038:Kendall's Ï
3571:Gallup Poll
3374:Frame error
3309:Panel study
3244:Methodology
3000:Straw Votes
2797:10 December
1646:. Cnn.com.
1294:Wiki survey
1116:Gerald Ford
745:conducting
659:decapitated
645:Use of the
348:Marcel DĂ©at
86:this script
65:(inclusive)
6046:Categories
5897:Demography
5615:ARMA model
5420:Regression
4997:(Friedman)
4958:(Wilcoxon)
4896:Normality
4886:Lilliefors
4833:Student's
4709:Resampling
4583:Robustness
4571:divergence
4561:Efficiency
4499:(monotone)
4494:Likelihood
4411:Population
4244:Stratified
4196:Population
4015:Dependence
3971:Count data
3902:Percentile
3879:Dispersion
3812:Arithmetic
3747:Statistics
3703:Statistics
3693:Psychology
3502:Demography
3479:Structural
3474:Log-linear
3217:Structured
2868:References
2739:2010-07-17
2708:2011-03-09
2518:2017-10-06
2460:2017-10-06
2431:2020-06-03
2360:2008-11-04
2334:2008-11-04
2308:2008-11-04
2258:2009-06-22
2226:2008-11-04
2200:2008-11-04
2174:2008-11-01
2057:2013-02-18
1810:2010-05-17
1778:2013-11-21
1654:2013-02-18
1575:2016-06-05
1494:2017-09-07
1466:2021-05-22
1420:2020-11-15
1279:Straw poll
1254:Referendum
1229:Psephology
1126:Regulation
1103:March 2011
1034:candidate
914:Jim Bolger
513:Exit polls
321:Elmo Roper
313:Republican
301:Alf Landon
243:, showing
62:1247155389
56:1247155241
6082:Pollsters
5278:Logistic
5045:posterior
4971:Rank sum
4719:Jackknife
4714:Bootstrap
4532:Bootstrap
4467:Parameter
4416:Statistic
4211:Statistic
4123:Run chart
4108:Pie chart
4103:Histogram
4093:Fan chart
4068:Bar chart
3950:L-moments
3837:Geometric
3698:Sociology
3679:Projects
3469:Graphical
3212:Interview
2774:153407445
2676:0954-0962
1989:cite book
1895:cite book
1688:cite book
1364:, or the
1343:144801377
1335:0022-5533
1301:Footnotes
1249:Push poll
1204:Exit poll
1028:safe seat
957:Influence
942:fake news
893:. In the
702:Holocaust
295:Then, in
292:in 1932.
284:in 1924,
280:in 1920,
270:postcards
258:In 1916,
157:talk page
5992:Category
5685:Survival
5562:Johansen
5285:Binomial
5240:Isotonic
4827:(normal)
4472:location
4279:Blocking
4234:Sampling
4113:QâQ plot
4078:Box plot
4060:Graphics
3955:Skewness
3945:Kurtosis
3917:Variance
3847:Heronian
3842:Harmonic
3688:Politics
3683:Business
3675:Category
3125:(2014).
3115:55878738
2702:Archived
2509:Archived
2505:32730475
2454:Archived
2425:Archived
2395:Archived
2354:Archived
2302:Archived
2249:Archived
2146:Archived
2128:Archived
2030:Archived
2011:Archived
1948:Archived
1854:Archived
1827:Archived
1801:Archived
1738:Archived
1719:Archived
1648:Archived
1569:Archived
1488:Archived
1414:Archived
1388:and the
1386:Watchman
1360:and the
1172:See also
1004:underdog
946:Facebook
854:Failures
722:attitude
713:survey.
435:Internet
390:New Deal
362:Labour's
247:leading
235:and the
221:pollster
169:May 2023
151:You may
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6052:Polling
6018:Commons
5965:Kriging
5850:Process
5807:studies
5666:Wavelet
5499:General
4666:Plug-in
4460:L space
4239:Cluster
3940:Moments
3758:Outline
3184:Social
3040:(1992).
3016:(1949).
3009:(2002).
3002:(1932).
2995:(2004).
2988:(1989).
2981:(1995).
2939:(1939).
2932:(1989).
2901:(1944)
2894:(1988).
2627:243â278
2576:(2000).
1860:30 June
1757:(2007).
1153:Russian
1045:wasting
918:Waitaki
870:in the
489:Al Gore
447:Twitter
227:History
5887:Census
5477:Normal
5425:Manova
5245:Robust
4995:2-way
4987:1-way
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4073:Biplot
3864:Median
3857:Lehmer
3799:Center
3252:Census
3232:Couple
3127:online
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3071:online
2974:(1995)
2917:online
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3852:Heinz
3827:Cubic
3763:Index
3141:from
3139:Polls
3111:S2CID
2770:S2CID
2512:(PDF)
2501:S2CID
2479:(PDF)
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2252:(PDF)
2245:(PDF)
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817:Obama
431:Zogby
199:or a
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3807:Mean
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2280:help
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1975:ISBN
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1920:ISBN
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1694:link
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1455:ISBN
1390:Star
1331:ISSN
991:Puck
899:2017
887:1992
885:and
883:1970
706:Nazi
594:and
586:and
533:e.g.
433:use
429:and
319:and
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201:poll
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4919:AIC
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