555:, the characteristics of those who agree to be interviewed may be markedly different from those who decline. That is, the actual sample is a biased version of the universe the pollster wants to analyze. In these cases, bias introduces new errors, one way or the other, that are in addition to errors caused by sample size. Error due to bias does not become smaller with larger sample sizes, because taking a larger sample size simply repeats the same mistake on a larger scale. If the people who refuse to answer, or are never reached, have the same characteristics as the people who do answer, then the final results should be unbiased. If the people who do not answer have different opinions then there is bias in the results. In terms of election polls, studies suggest that bias effects are small, but each polling firm has its own techniques for adjusting weights to minimize selection bias.
567:, where the answers given by respondents do not reflect their true beliefs. This may be deliberately engineered by unscrupulous pollsters in order to generate a certain result or please their clients, but more often is a result of the detailed wording or ordering of questions (see below). Respondents may deliberately try to manipulate the outcome of a poll by e.g. advocating a more extreme position than they actually hold in order to boost their side of the argument or give rapid and ill-considered answers in order to hasten the end of their questioning. Respondents may also feel under social pressure not to give an unpopular answer. For example, respondents might be unwilling to admit to unpopular attitudes like
299:
sovereignty by inventing scientific public opinion polls, and making it the centerpiece of their own market research, as well as the key to understanding politics. George Gallup, the vice president of Young and
Rubicam, and numerous other advertising experts, led the way. Moving into the 1940s, the industry played a leading role in the ideological mobilization of the American people in fighting the Nazis and the Japanese in World War II. As part of that effort, they redefined the "American Way of Life" in terms of a commitment to free enterprise. "Advertisers", Lears concludes, "played a crucial hegemonic role in creating the consumer culture that dominated post-World War II American society."
741:
520:. This makes the assumption that the procedure is similar enough between many different polls and uses the sample size of each poll to create a polling average. Another source of error stems from faulty demographic models by pollsters who weigh their samples by particular variables such as party identification in an election. For example, if you assume that the breakdown of the US population by party identification has not changed since the previous presidential election, you may underestimate a victory or a defeat of a particular party candidate that saw a surge or decline in its party registration relative to the previous presidential election cycle.
509:â usually defined as the radius of a 95% confidence interval for a particular statistic. One example is the percent of people who prefer product A versus product B. When a single, global margin of error is reported for a survey, it refers to the maximum margin of error for all reported percentages using the full sample from the survey. If the statistic is a percentage, this maximum margin of error can be calculated as the radius of the confidence interval for a reported percentage of 50%. Others suggest that a poll with a random sample of 1,000 people has margin of sampling error of ±3% for the estimated percentage of the whole population.
324:
inundated with the results of public opinion polls sponsored by the news media, by political campaigns, and by many public, private, and nonprofit organizations. Some of the polling is on matters of immediate national importance, such as the turmoil in the Middle East, the performance of the
American economy, health care reform, immigration, or the war on terror. But polls are conducted on almost any conceivable topic, be it a genuine public policy issue such as abortion, education reform and performance standards, deficit spending, the environment, or gay marriage" (Asher 2017).
417:
negative, on themselves and their opponent(s). This lets the campaign know what messages work best with certain demographics and what messages should be avoided. Campaigns often use these polls to test possible attack messages that their opponent may use and potential responses to those attacks. The campaign can then spend some time preparing an effective response to any likely attacks. Thirdly, this kind of poll can be used by candidates or political parties to convince primary challengers to drop out of a race and support a stronger candidate.
5970:
714:
counterproductive, that not being sent between groups that assume ulterior motives from each other and not being allowed to express consistent critical thought anywhere may create psychological stress because humans are sapient, and that discussion spaces free from assumptions of ulterior motives behind specific opinions should be created. In this context, rejection of the assumption that opinion polls show actual links between opinions is considered important.
1054:
create reasons for a party's loss or gain in the polls. This can reinforce or change their opinion of the candidate and thus affect voting behaviour. Third, the final possibility is a "behavioural response" which is similar to a cognitive response. The only salient difference is that a voter will go and seek new information to form their "mental list", thus becoming more informed of the election. This may then affect voting behaviour.
1076:
36:
619:
Additionally, leading questions often contain, or lack, certain facts that can sway a respondent's answer. Argumentative
Questions can also impact the outcome of a survey. These types of questions, depending on their nature, either positive or negative, influence respondents' answers to reflect the tone of the question(s) and generate a certain response or reaction, rather than gauge sentiment in an unbiased manner.
5956:
733:. Because pollsters cannot use automated dialing machines to call mobile phones in the United States (because the phone's owner may be charged for taking a call), these individuals are typically excluded from polling samples. There is concern that, if the subset of the population without cell phones differs markedly from the rest of the population, these differences can skew the results of the poll.
1131:
of publication of the survey results largely differed in different countries. Out of the 20 countries examined, 3 prohibit the publication during the entire period of campaigns, while others prohibit it for a shorter term such as the polling period or the final 48 hours before a poll closes. In India, the
Election Commission has prohibited it in the 48 hours before the start of polling.
462:. Then, a subsequent poll conducted just two days later showed Bush ahead of Gore by seven points. It was soon determined that the volatility of the results was at least in part due to an uneven distribution of Democratic and Republican affiliated voters in the samples. Though the Gallup Organization argued the volatility in the poll was a genuine representation of the electorate, other
5994:
5982:
1050:, outlines three additional "behavioural" responses that voters may exhibit when faced with polling data. The first is known as a "cue taking" effect which holds that poll data is used as a "proxy" for information about the candidates or parties. Cue taking is "based on the psychological phenomenon of using heuristics to simplify a complex decision" (243).
590:(select only one candidate) in a poll puts an unintentional bias into the poll, since people who favor more than one candidate cannot indicate this. The fact that they must choose only one candidate biases the poll, causing it to favor the candidate most different from the others while it disfavors candidates who are similar to other candidates. The
308:
513:
error to 1% they would need a sample of around 10,000 people. In practice, pollsters need to balance the cost of a large sample against the reduction in sampling error and a sample size of around 500â1,000 is a typical compromise for political polls. (To get complete responses it may be necessary to include thousands of additional participators.)
752:. In previous elections, the proportion of the general population using cell phones was small, but as this proportion has increased, there is concern that polling only landlines is no longer representative of the general population. In 2003, only 2.9% of households were wireless (cellphones only), compared to 12.8% in 2006. This results in "
630:". This type of leading question may concern an uncomfortable or controversial issue, and/or automatically assume the subject of the question is related to the respondent(s) or that they are knowledgeable about it. Likewise, the questions are then worded in a way that limit the possible answers, typically to yes or no.
1006:. This theory is based on the idea that voters view the act of voting as a means of selecting a government. Thus they will sometimes not choose the candidate they prefer on ground of ideology or sympathy, but another, less-preferred, candidate from strategic considerations. An example can be found in the
1122:
Some jurisdictions over the world restrict the publication of the results of opinion polls, especially during the period around an election, in order to prevent the possibly erroneous results from affecting voters' decisions. For instance, in Canada, it is prohibited to publish the results of opinion
841:
The relative importance of these factors was, and remains, a matter of controversy. Polling organizations have since then adjusted their methodologies and have achieved more accurate results in subsequent election campaigns. A comprehensive discussion of these biases and how they should be understood
737:
ways, (but) they were neither numerous enough nor different enough on the questions we examined to produce a significant change in overall general population survey estimates when included with the landline samples and weighted according to US Census parameters on basic demographic characteristics."
1347:
prior to the election of 1824. A study of the background of the election shows these polling efforts were a natural outgrowth of a campaign involving the voters' first real choice of a president and four colorful candidates. Some researchers have attributed the origins of polling to other papers and
736:
Polling organizations have developed many weighting techniques to help overcome these deficiencies, with varying degrees of success. Studies of mobile phone users by the Pew
Research Center in the US, in 2007, concluded that "cell-only respondents are different from landline respondents in important
708:
One of the criticisms of opinion polls is that societal assumptions that opinions between which there is no logical link are "correlated attitudes" can push people with one opinion into a group that forces them to pretend to have a supposedly linked but actually unrelated opinion. That, in turn, may
416:
are used for a number of purposes. First, it lets the candidate know if they have made any progress on the ballot, how much progress has been made, and in what demographics they have been making or losing ground. Secondly, it is a way for the campaign to test a variety of messages, both positive and
1130:
do not support the entire prohibition of the publication of pre-election opinion polls; most of them have no regulation and some only prohibit it in the final days or hours until the relevant poll closes. A survey by Canada's Royal
Commission on Electoral Reform reported that the prohibition period
1062:
and party ideology shifts must also be taken under consideration. Opinion polling in some instances is a measure of cognitive bias, which is variably considered and handled appropriately in its various applications. In turn, non-nuanced reporting by the media about poll data and public opinions can
713:
problems. It has been suggested that attempts to counteract unethical opinions by condemning supposedly linked opinions may favor the groups that promote the actually unethical opinions by forcing people with supposedly linked opinions into them by ostracism elsewhere in society making such efforts
653:
Thus comparisons between polls often boil down to the wording of the question. On some issues, question wording can result in quite pronounced differences between surveys. This can also, however, be a result of legitimately conflicted feelings or evolving attitudes, rather than a poorly constructed
380:
serves a number of purposes for a campaign, whether it is a political campaign or some other type of campaign. First, it gives the candidate a picture of where they stand with the electorate before any campaigning takes place. If the poll is done prior to announcing for office the candidate may use
1030:
steadily gaining support, which may have prompted undecided voters or supporters of other parties to support Twigg in order to remove
Portillo. Another example is the boomerang effect where the likely supporters of the candidate shown to be winning feel that chances are slim and that their vote is
649:
extermination of the Jews never happened?" The confusing wording of this question led to inaccurate results which indicated that 22 percent of respondents believed it seemed possible the
Holocaust might not have ever happened. When the question was reworded, significantly fewer respondents (only 1
597:
Some people responding may not understand the words being used, but may wish to avoid the embarrassment of admitting this, or the poll mechanism may not allow clarification, so they may make an arbitrary choice. Some percentage of people also answer whimsically or out of annoyance at being polled.
681:
These controls are not widely used in the polling industry.. However, as it is important that questions to test the product have a high quality, survey methodologists work on methods to test them. Empirical tests provide insight into the quality of the questionnaire, some may be more complex than
512:
A 3% margin of error means that if the same procedure is used a large number of times, 95% of the time the true population average will be within the sample estimate plus or minus 3%. The margin of error can be reduced by using a larger sample, however if a pollster wishes to reduce the margin of
504:
to measure the opinions of the whole population based only on a subset, and for this purpose the absolute size of the sample is important, but the percentage of the whole population is not important (unless it happens to be close to the sample size). The possible difference between the sample and
372:
is generally the first poll taken in a campaign. It is often taken before a candidate announces their bid for office, but sometimes it happens immediately following that announcement after they have had some opportunity to raise funds. This is generally a short and simple survey of likely voters.
344:
surveys, where a sample is drawn from a large panel of volunteers, and the results are weighted to reflect the demographics of the population of interest. In contrast, popular web polls draw on whoever wishes to participate, rather than a scientific sample of the population, and are therefore not
1053:
The second, first described by Petty and
Cacioppo (1996), is known as "cognitive response" theory. This theory asserts that a voter's response to a poll may not line with their initial conception of the electoral reality. In response, the voter is likely to generate a "mental list" in which they
920:
Social media today is a popular medium for the candidates to campaign and for gauging the public reaction to the campaigns. Social media can also be used as an indicator of the voter opinion regarding the poll. Some research studies have shown that predictions made using social media signals can
385:
shows them what types of voters they are sure to win, those they are sure to lose, and everyone in-between these two extremes. This lets the campaign know which voters are persuadable so they can spend their limited resources in the most effective manner. Second, it can give them an idea of what
441:
However, these polls are sometimes subject to dramatic fluctuations, and so political campaigns and candidates are cautious in analyzing their results. An example of a tracking poll that generated controversy over its accuracy, is one conducted during the 2000 U.S. presidential election, by the
359:
Polls can be used in the public relations field as well. In the early 1920s, public relation experts described their work as a two-way street. Their job would be to present the misinterpreted interests of large institutions to public. They would also gauge the typically ignored interests of the
869:
There were also substantial polling errors in the presidential elections of 1952, 1980, 1996, 2000, and 2016: while the first three correctly predicted the winner (albeit not the extent of their winning margin), with the last two correctly predicting the winner of the popular vote (but not the
618:
For instance, the public is more likely to indicate support for a person who is described by the surveyor as one of the "leading candidates". This description is "leading" as it indicates a subtle bias for that candidate, since it implies that the others in the race are not serious contenders.
437:
of the responses that were gathered over a fixed number of the most recent periods, for example the past five days. In this example, the next calculated results will use data for five days counting backwards from the next day, namely the same data as before, but with the data from the next day
323:
and
Internet based polling. Verbal, ballot, and processed types can be conducted efficiently, contrasted with other types of surveys, systematics, and complicated matrices beyond previous orthodox procedures.. In the book Polling and the public by author Herb Asher he says "Americans today are
298:
furthermore aggressively promoted consumerism, and minimized the value of (or need for) advertising. Historian Jackson Lears argues that "By the late 1930s, though, corporate advertisers had begun a successful counterattack against their critics." They rehabilitated the concept of consumer
940:
than the most popular mainstream news stories; many people who see fake news stories report that they believe them; and the most discussed fake news stories tended to favor Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton. As a result of these facts, some have concluded that if not for these stories,
318:
Opinion polls for many years were maintained through telecommunications or in person-to-person contact. Methods and techniques vary, though they are widely accepted in most areas. Over the years, technological innovations have also influenced survey methods such as the availability of
1152:, which promotes those in power and discredits alternative candidates. Many respondents in Russia do not want to answer pollsters' questions for fear of negative consequences. On 23 March 2023, criminal case was opened against Moscow resident Yury Kokhovets, a participant in the
998:
effect. It is often mentioned in the media. This occurs when people vote, out of sympathy, for the party perceived to be "losing" the elections. There is less empirical evidence for the existence of this effect than there is for the existence of the bandwagon effect.
1147:
poll results or comparing them to polls in democratic states was irrelevant, as there is no real political competition in Russia, where, unlike in democratic states, Russian voters are not offered any credible alternatives and public opinion is primarily formed by
1583:
Brendan O'Connor, Ramnath Balasubramanyan, Bryan R Routledge, and Noah A Smith. From Tweets to Polls: Linking Text Sentiment to Public Opinion Time Series. In Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media. AAAI Press, pp. 122â129,
475:
Over time, a number of theories and mechanisms have been offered to explain erroneous polling results. Some of these reflect errors on the part of the pollsters; many of them are statistical in nature. Others blame the respondents for not giving candid answers
990:
spent much effort in vain trying to discredit this theory in his time by presenting empirical research. A recent meta-study of scientific research on this topic indicates that from the 1980s onward the Bandwagon effect is found more often by researchers.
1557:"Vasileios Lampos, Daniel Preotiuc-Pietro and Trevor Cohn. A user-centric model of voting intention from social media. Proceedings of the 51st Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics. ACL, pp. 993-1003, 2013 Retrieved 16-06-4"
293:
Viewed from a long-term perspective, advertising had come under heavy pressure in the early 1930s. The Great Depression forced businesses to drastically cut back on their advertising spending. Layoffs and reductions were common at all agencies. The
932:. Evidence shows that social media plays a huge role in the supplying of news: 62 percent of US adults get news on social media. This fact makes the issue of fake news on social media more pertinent. Other evidence shows that the most popular
657:
A common technique to control for this bias is to rotate the order in which questions are asked. Many pollsters also split-sample. This involves having two different versions of a question, with each version presented to half the respondents.
893:, the opposite appears to have occurred. Most polls predicted an increased Conservative majority, even though in reality the election resulted in a hung parliament with a Conservative plurality: some polls correctly predicted this outcome.
217:; those who favored Landon were more enthusiastic about returning their postcards. Furthermore, the postcards were sent to a target audience who were more affluent than the American population as a whole, and therefore more likely to have
669:
asking enough questions to allow all aspects of an issue to be covered and to control effects due to the form of the question (such as positive or negative wording), the adequacy of the number being established quantitatively with
409:
taken by a campaign is determined by how competitive the race is and how much money the campaign has to spend. These polls usually focus on likely voters and the length of the survey varies on the number of messages being tested.
1114:, "It's no longer necessary for a political candidate to guess what an audience thinks. He can with a nightly tracking poll. So it's no longer likely that political leaders are going to lead. Instead, they're going to follow."
327:
Opinion polling developed into popular applications through popular thought, although response rates for some surveys declined. Also, the following has also led to differentiating results: Some polling organizations, such as
782:
It is difficult to get co-operation from cellphone users, because in many parts of the US, users are charged for both outgoing and incoming calls. That means that pollsters have had to offer financial compensation to gain
756:". Many polling organisations select their sample by dialling random telephone numbers; however, in 2008, there was a clear tendency for polls which included mobile phones in their samples to show a much larger lead for
968:
asserts that opinion polls are actually a device for influencing public opinion. The various theories about how this happens can be split into two groups: bandwagon/underdog effects, and strategic ("tactical") voting.
767:
Some households use cellphones only and have no landline. This tends to include minorities and younger voters; and occurs more frequently in metropolitan areas. Men are more likely to be cellphone-only compared to
3019:
Brodie, Mollyann, et al. "The Past, Present, And Possible Future Of Public Opinion On The ACA: A review of 102 nationally representative public opinion polls about the Affordable Care Act, 2010 through 2019."
610:
Among the factors that impact the results of Opinion Polls, are the wording and order of the questions being posed by the surveyor. Questions that intentionally affect a respondents answer are referred to as
1057:
These effects indicate how opinion polls can directly affect political choices of the electorate. But directly or indirectly, other effects can be surveyed and analyzed on all political parties. The form of
466:
took steps to reduce such wide variations in their results. One such step included manipulating the proportion of Democrats and Republicans in any given sample, but this method is subject to controversy.
693:
carrying out a small pretest of the questionnaire, using a small subset of target respondents. Results can inform a researcher of errors such as missing questions, or logical and procedural errors.
1697:
2820:
2393:
3549:
2363:
1560:
161:. Since Jackson won the popular vote in that state and the national popular vote, such straw votes gradually became more popular, but they remained local, usually citywide phenomena.
3044:
FernĂĄndez-Prados, Juan SebastiĂĄn, Cristina Cuenca-Piqueras, and MarĂa JosĂ© GonzĂĄlez-Moreno. "International public opinion surveys and public policy in Southern European democracies."
1786:
1728:
778:
Some polling companies have attempted to get around that problem by including a "cellphone supplement". There are a number of problems with including cellphones in a telephone poll:
381:
the poll to decide whether or not they should even run for office. Secondly, it shows them where their weaknesses and strengths are in two main areas. The first is the electorate. A
1106:
Starting in the 1980s, tracking polls and related technologies began having a notable impact on U.S. political leaders. According to Douglas Bailey, a Republican who had helped run
976:
occurs when the poll prompts voters to back the candidate shown to be winning in the poll. The idea that voters are susceptible to such effects is old, stemming at least from 1884;
889:, virtually every poll predicted a hung parliament with Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck, when the actual result was a clear Conservative majority. On the other hand, in
2105:
523:
A caution is that an estimate of a trend is subject to a larger error than an estimate of a level. This is because if one estimates the change, the difference between two numbers
1989:
3119:
nonpartisan "fact tank" providing information on the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world by conducting public opinion polling and social science research
3095:
904:
would increase its majority. However, the preliminary results on election night showed a hung parliament with National one seat short of a majority, leading to Prime Minister
1907:
1970:
1200:
121:. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within
2586:
Pickup, Mark (2010). "Election Campaign Polls and Democracy in Canada: Examining the Evidence behind the Common Claims". In Anderson, Cameron; Stephenson, Laura (eds.).
575:, and thus polls might not reflect the true incidence of these attitudes in the population. In American political parlance, this phenomenon is often referred to as the
50:
3610:
3569:
1255:
726:
in 1936. For example, telephone sampling has a built-in error because in many times and places, those with telephones have generally been richer than those without.
233:
soon went out of business, while polling started to take off. Roper went on to correctly predict the two subsequent reelections of President Franklin D. Roosevelt.
5091:
3564:
2670:
1954:
1860:
1653:
1015:
5596:
3630:
1260:
882:
2422:
722:
Another source of error is the use of samples that are not representative of the population as a consequence of the methodology used, as was the experience of
547:
Since some people do not answer calls from strangers, or refuse to answer the poll, poll samples may not be representative samples from a population due to a
3579:
5746:
5370:
2048:
Andrews, F. M. (1984). Construct validity and error components of survey measures: a structural modelling approach. Public Opinion Quarterly, 48, 409-442.
1694:
4011:
1607:
1479:
245:
709:
cause people who have the first opinion to claim on polls that they have the second opinion without having it, causing opinion polls to become part of
866:. Major polling organizations, including Gallup and Roper, had indicated that Dewey would defeat Truman in a landslide; Truman won a narrow victory.
787:
696:
estimating the measurement quality of the questions. This can be done for instance using test-retest, quasi-simplex, or mutlitrait-multimethod models.
2313:
5144:
3144:
2261:
1250:
1111:
749:
202:
146:
5583:
3090:
Murphy, Joe, et al. "Social Media in Public Opinion Research: Report of the AAPOR Task Force on Emerging Technologies in Public Opinion Research."
2385:
833:": Conservatives had suffered a sustained period of unpopularity as a result of economic difficulties and a series of minor scandals, leading to a
637:
Questions". These are more often the result of human error, rather than intentional manipulation. One such example is a survey done in 1992 by the
3589:
2695:
2057:
Saris, W. E. and Gallhofer, I. N. (2014). Design, evaluation and analysis of questionnaires for survey research. Second Edition. Hoboken, Wiley.
3574:
3521:
2208:
1405:
1032:
2359:
2149:
823:: voters who changed their minds shortly before voting tended to favour the Conservatives, so the error was not as great as it first appeared.
3554:
2510:
1938:
1883:
1844:
1637:
740:
677:
analyzing the results with psychometric techniques which synthesize the answers into a few reliable scores and detect ineffective questions.
4006:
3706:
3062:
Kim So Young, Wolinsky-Nahmias Yael (2014). "Cross-national public opinion on climate change: the effects of affluence and vulnerability".
2175:
2006:
1783:
1007:
890:
886:
878:
874:
271:
433:
is a poll in which responses are obtained in a number of consecutive periods, for instance daily, and then results are calculated using a
2102:
2066:"Political Polling in the Digital Age: The Challenge of Measuring and Understanding Public Opinion" by Robert K. Goidel, yr twenty-eleven
803:. Despite the polling organizations using different methodologies, virtually all the polls taken before the vote, and to a lesser extent
4610:
3758:
3620:
3034:
Eagly, Alice H., et al. "Gender stereotypes have changed: A cross-temporal meta-analysis of US public opinion polls from 1946 to 2018."
2283:
690:. By asking a sample of potential-respondents about their interpretation of the questions and use of the questionnaire, a researcher can
5998:
3671:
3661:
2802:
2123:
3511:
3501:
2757:"Opinion: The truth about Putin's 86-percent approval rating. How people fail to understand survey data about support for the Kremlin"
2477:
1986:
3666:
2756:
6055:
5393:
5285:
1511:
1450:
897:
84:
3656:
3651:
3107:
2087:
1899:
958:
By providing information about voting intentions, opinion polls can sometimes influence the behavior of electors, and in his book
5571:
5445:
1157:
909:
863:
826:
Nonresponse bias: Conservative voters were less likely to participate in surveys than in the past and were thus underrepresented.
455:
447:
1967:
1760:
815:. In their deliberations after this embarrassment, the pollsters advanced several ideas to account for their errors, including:
5629:
5290:
5035:
4406:
3996:
3337:
2202:"Wireless Substitution: Early Release of Estimates Based on Data from the National Health Interview Survey, JulyâDecember 2006"
1153:
925:
4620:
2039:
Heise, D. R.(1969). Separating reliability and stability in test-retest correlation. American Sociological Review, 34, 93-101.
229:
conducted surveys that were far smaller but more scientifically based, and all three managed to correctly predict the result.
6045:
5680:
4892:
4699:
4588:
4546:
1339:
The earliest forerunners of the modern public opinion poll appear to be tallies of voter preferences reported by the Raleigh
286:
powers helped to create survey institutes in all of the Western occupation zones of Germany in 1947 and 1948 to better steer
218:
3785:
5923:
4882:
1205:
579:. If the results of surveys are widely publicized this effect may be magnified â a phenomenon commonly referred to as the
4932:
986:
in that year. It has also remained persistent in spite of a lack of empirical corroboration until the late 20th century.
252:", looking for popular support or dissent with this question asked by appeasement politician and future collaborationist
5474:
5423:
5408:
5398:
5267:
5139:
5106:
4887:
4717:
3447:
3137:
2662:
5543:
4844:
2611:"Debate: Reporting pre-election polls: it is less about average Jane and Joe, and more about polarized Karen and Kevin"
1813:
699:
predicting the measurement quality of the question. This can be done using the software Survey Quality Predictor (SQP).
6030:
5818:
5619:
4598:
4267:
3731:
615:. Individuals and/or groups use these types of questions in surveys to elicit responses favorable to their interests.
248:, as the first European survey institute in Paris. Stoetzel started political polls in summer 1939 with the question "
5703:
5670:
2721:
Tim Bale (2002). "Restricting the broadcast and publication of pre-election and exit polls: some selected examples".
2414:
2103:
The Growing Gap between Landline and Dual Frame Election Polls: Republican Vote Share Bigger in Landline-Only Surveys
66:
1666:
An estimate of the margin of error in percentage terms can be gained by the formula 100 Ă· square root of sample size
5675:
5418:
5177:
5083:
5063:
4971:
4682:
4500:
3983:
3855:
1360:
alone, with reporting the first public opinion poll. Others give much later dates for the first poll, mentioning a
1127:
1123:
surveys that would identify specific political parties or candidates in the final three days before a poll closes.
901:
4849:
4615:
4473:
237:
had been in the field of public opinion since 1947 when he joined the Elmo Roper firm, then later became partner.
6040:
6025:
5435:
5203:
4924:
4778:
4707:
4627:
4485:
4466:
4174:
3895:
3643:
3584:
3412:
3265:
3190:
1265:
1170:
1059:
329:
5548:
1305:
Tankard, James W. (1972). "Public Opinion Polling by Newspapers in the Presidential Election Campaign of 1824".
5918:
5685:
5233:
5198:
5162:
4947:
4389:
4298:
4257:
4169:
3860:
3699:
800:
710:
158:
4955:
4939:
1475:
771:
Some people may not be contactable by landline from Monday to Friday and may be contactable only by cellphone.
539:. A rough guide is that if the change in measurement falls outside the margin of error it is worth attention.
3027:
Dyczok, Marta. "Information wars: hegemony, counter-hegemony, propaganda, the use of force, and resistance."
2976:
Mobocracy: How the Media's Obsession with Polling Twists the News, Alters Elections, and Undermines Democracy
1603:
6035:
5827:
5440:
5380:
5317:
4677:
4539:
4529:
4379:
4293:
3417:
3260:
3154:
3130:
812:
591:
587:
312:
283:
275:
259:
110:
5588:
5525:
2821:"Russian police upgrade charges against Moscow resident in 'fake news' case over comment for Radio Liberty"
2309:
1678:
5865:
5795:
5280:
5167:
4164:
4061:
3968:
3847:
3746:
3534:
3516:
3407:
3292:
3195:
3170:
2257:
995:
790:). Numbers therefore have to be dialled by hand, which is more time-consuming and expensive for pollsters.
46:
5986:
4864:
2781:
500:
which reflects the effects of chance and uncertainty in the sampling process. Sampling polls rely on the
5890:
5832:
5775:
5601:
5494:
5403:
5129:
5013:
4872:
4754:
4746:
4561:
4457:
4435:
4394:
4359:
4326:
4272:
4247:
4202:
4141:
4101:
3903:
3726:
3544:
3427:
3287:
3240:
2226:
1235:
662:
118:
5969:
4859:
837:
in which some Conservative supporters were reluctant to disclose their sincere intentions to pollsters.
774:
Some people use their landlines only to access the Internet, and answer calls only to their cellphones.
3049:
2701:
1729:"Minority Opinions:Hardly anyone responds to public opinion surveys anymore. Can we still trust them?"
249:
5813:
5388:
5337:
5313:
5275:
5193:
5172:
5124:
5003:
4981:
4950:
4736:
4687:
4605:
4578:
4534:
4490:
4252:
4028:
3908:
3465:
3402:
3392:
3245:
3185:
3180:
2610:
2543:
Bandwagons, Underdogs, the Titanic and the Red Cross: The Influence of Public Opinion Polls on Voters
2201:
1149:
687:
501:
463:
122:
1397:
908:
exclaiming "bugger the pollsters" on live national television. The official count saw National gain
5960:
5885:
5808:
5489:
5253:
5246:
5208:
5116:
5096:
5068:
4801:
4667:
4662:
4652:
4644:
4462:
4423:
4313:
4303:
4212:
3991:
3947:
3865:
3790:
3692:
3625:
3594:
3347:
3255:
3230:
2287:
2153:
1210:
1180:
1040:
443:
337:
166:
5535:
6050:
5974:
5785:
5639:
5484:
5360:
5257:
5241:
5218:
4995:
4729:
4712:
4672:
4583:
4478:
4440:
4411:
4371:
4331:
4277:
4194:
3880:
3875:
3442:
3357:
3332:
3304:
3277:
3212:
3079:
3054:
Kang, Liu, and Yun-Han Chu. "China's Rise through World Public Opinion: Editorial Introduction."
2738:
2469:
2333:
Salant, Priscilla, I. Dillman, and A. Don. How to conduct your own survey. No. 300.723 S3.. 1994.
1948:
1854:
1647:
1330:
1280:
1190:
960:
638:
551:. Response rates have been declining, and are down to about 10% in recent years. Because of this
222:
214:
195:
170:
embarked on a national survey (partly as a circulation-raising exercise) and correctly predicted
3559:
3039:
2179:
2010:
2030:
Lord, F. and Novick, M. R.(1968). Statistical theories of mental test scores. Addison â Wesley.
5880:
5850:
5842:
5662:
5653:
5578:
5509:
5365:
5350:
5325:
5213:
5154:
5020:
5008:
4634:
4551:
4495:
4418:
4262:
4184:
3963:
3837:
3432:
3397:
3327:
2640:
2635:
2595:
2506:
1934:
1879:
1840:
1633:
1507:
1501:
1446:
1430:
1322:
1225:
1023:
834:
808:
580:
548:
279:
267:
154:
62:
2127:
6020:
5905:
5860:
5624:
5611:
5504:
5479:
5413:
5345:
5223:
4831:
4724:
4657:
4570:
4517:
4336:
4207:
4001:
3800:
3767:
3539:
3352:
3200:
3071:
2995:
2730:
2630:
2622:
2568:
2459:
1438:
1314:
1275:
1215:
1011:
1003:
973:
820:
730:
623:
612:
137:
The first known example of an opinion poll was a tally of voter preferences reported by the
2444:
1593:
Kenneth F. Warren (1992). "in Defense of Public Opinion Polling." Westview Press. p. 200-1.
873:
In the United Kingdom, most polls failed to predict the Conservative election victories of
5822:
5566:
5428:
5355:
5030:
4904:
4877:
4854:
4823:
4450:
4445:
4399:
4129:
3780:
3475:
3437:
3372:
3272:
3235:
3162:
2849:
2557:"Opinion Polls, Coalition Signals and Strategic Voting: Evidence from a Survey Experiment"
2239:
2109:
2091:
1996:, Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, Published 2014-05-27, Retrieved 2016-06-05
1993:
1974:
1790:
1701:
1682:
982:
859:
830:
634:
506:
485:
209:
would win the presidential election, but Roosevelt was instead re-elected by a landslide.
187:
5771:
5766:
4229:
4159:
3805:
3485:
3367:
3362:
3342:
3317:
3312:
3250:
3225:
2885:
2877:
977:
965:
753:
627:
576:
552:
497:
481:
459:
434:
287:
263:
253:
191:
183:
171:
150:
114:
17:
2871:
2084:
1753:
1075:
6014:
5928:
5895:
5758:
5719:
5530:
5499:
4963:
4917:
4522:
4224:
4051:
3815:
3810:
3529:
3506:
3422:
3384:
3322:
3175:
2825:
2786:
2742:
2588:
1556:
1334:
1185:
1175:
1140:
1027:
987:
851:
748:
This issue was first identified in 2004, but came to prominence only during the 2008
671:
564:
241:
210:
4081:
3083:
2473:
5870:
5803:
5780:
5695:
5025:
4321:
4154:
4096:
4018:
3973:
3282:
1808:
1230:
942:
929:
855:
786:
US federal law prohibits the use of automated dialling devices to call cellphones (
757:
599:
517:
349:
320:
234:
2626:
842:
and mitigated is included in several sources including Dillman and Salant (1994).
928:, a major concern has been that of the effect of false stories spread throughout
5913:
5875:
5558:
5459:
5321:
5134:
5101:
4593:
4510:
4505:
4149:
4106:
4086:
4066:
4056:
3825:
2253:
1285:
1107:
1036:
799:
An oft-quoted example of opinion polls succumbing to errors occurred during the
1318:
4759:
4239:
3939:
3870:
3820:
3795:
3715:
3470:
2734:
1270:
1245:
1220:
1002:
The second category of theories on how polls directly affect voting is called
905:
348:
Recently, statistical learning methods have been proposed in order to exploit
226:
206:
2948:
The Superpollsters: How They Measure and Manipulate Public Opinion in America
2644:
1326:
980:
reported that the term was first used in a political cartoon in the magazine
4912:
4764:
4384:
4179:
4091:
4076:
4071:
4036:
2932:
Glynn, Carroll J., Susan Herbst, Garrett J. O'Keefe, and Robert Y. Shapiro.
2572:
2075:"Understanding Public Opinion Polls" by Jelke Bethlehem, yr twenty-seventeen
1878:(Ninth ed.). Thousand Oaks, California: SAGE CQ Press. pp. 82â86.
1803:
1240:
1195:
1019:
933:
804:
642:
598:
This results in perhaps 4% of Americans reporting they have personally been
2556:
1442:
4428:
4046:
3923:
3918:
3913:
3885:
3122:
3075:
2464:
937:
645:. The question read "Does it seem possible or impossible to you that the
341:
295:
290:. By the 1950s, various types of polling had spread to most democracies.
175:
1715:
Introduction to Bayesian Statistics and Estimation for Social Scientists
1704:, American Association for Public Opinion Research, Retrieved 2016-06-05
5933:
5634:
451:
353:
307:
2927:
Public opinion and polling around the world: a historical encyclopedia
1793:
American Association for Public Opinion Research, Retrieved 2016-06-05
5855:
4836:
4810:
4790:
4041:
3832:
3615:
3220:
1144:
1046:
In addition, Mark Pickup, in Cameron Anderson and Laura Stephenson's
572:
568:
333:
3007:
Dictionary of Polling: The Language of Contemporary Opinion Research
2892:
Survey Research in the United States: Roots and Emergence 1890â1960
2501:
Hitchens, Peter (2009). "Chapter 1, Guy Fawkes Gets a Blackberry".
438:
included, and without the data from the sixth day before that day.
386:
messages, ideas, or slogans are the strongest with the electorate.
2983:
The Pollsters: Public Opinion, Politics, and Democratic Leadership
1541:
The Market Research Terminal & Developments in Survey Research
739:
633:
Another type of question that can produce inaccurate results are "
306:
274:: virtually all other commentators had expected a victory for the
1503:
Fables Of Abundance: A Cultural History Of Advertising In America
3775:
2360:"Pollsters, prophets and politics: On the ball or off the mark?"
2345:
Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections
1675:
646:
5744:
5311:
5058:
4357:
4127:
3744:
3688:
3126:
3116:
1977:, Pew Research Center Published 2013-07-26 Retrieved 2016-06-05
1632:(Ninth ed.). Thousand Oaks, California. pp. 196â198.
1543:â, European Journal of Marketing, Vol. 20 Issue: 2, pp.35 - 39.
3000:
Ratings Analysis: The Theory and Practice of Audience Research
2803:"Why Do So Many Russians Say They Support the War in Ukraine?"
1528:
Survey Research in the United States: Roots and Emergence 1960
1156:
street poll. He faced up to 10 years in prison under Russia's
1070:
850:
A widely publicized failure of opinion polling to date in the
744:
Voter turnout by race/ethnicity, 2008 US presidential election
682:
others. For instance, testing a questionnaire can be done by:
29:
3684:
1931:
Polling and the public : what every citizen should know
1876:
Polling and the public : what every citizen should know
1837:
Polling and the public : what every citizen should know
1630:
Polling and the public : what every citizen should know
1437:, Thousand Oaks: SAGE Publications, Inc., pp. 170â171,
2913:
The Gallup Poll Cumulative Index: Public Opinion, 1935â1997
811:, while the actual vote gave a clear victory to the ruling
2663:"David S. Broder: The best political reporter of his time"
1376:
poll, so that credit for the first polls should go to the
1368:
election forecasts prior to 1900. It now appears that the
1031:
not required, thus allowing another candidate to win. For
3550:
Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey
2884:(1951), massive compilation of many public opinion polls
1933:(Ninth ed.). Thousand Oaks, California. p. 82.
1839:(Ninth ed.). Thousand Oaks, California. p. 75.
2386:"This much is clear: 100% of pollsters have got no idea"
516:
Another way to reduce the margin of error is to rely on
1685:, National Council on Public Polls Retrieved 2016-06-05
1087:
356:) for modelling and predicting voting intention polls.
109:(although strictly a poll is an actual election), is a
58:
3046:
Journal of International and Comparative Social Policy
2844:
Polling and the Public. What Every Citizen Should Know
1968:
Government Surveillance: A Question Wording Experiment
1676:
20 Questions Journalists Should Ask About Poll Results
807:
taken on voting day, showed a lead for the opposition
352:
content (such as posts on the micro-blogging platform
213:'s research found that the error was mainly caused by
2955:
Trends in Public Opinion: A Compendium of Survey Data
2503:
The Broken Compass: How British Politics Lost its Way
2112:
Pew Research Center, 2010-11-22; Retrieved 2016-06-05
1364:
survey during the 1896 presidential campaign and the
496:
Polls based on samples of populations are subject to
5597:
Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH)
2953:
Niemi, Richard G., John Mueller, Tom W. Smith, eds.
945:
may not have won the election over Hillary Clinton.
143:
Wilmington American Watchman and Delaware Advertiser
5904:
5841:
5794:
5757:
5712:
5694:
5661:
5652:
5610:
5557:
5518:
5467:
5458:
5379:
5336:
5266:
5232:
5186:
5153:
5115:
5082:
4994:
4903:
4822:
4777:
4745:
4698:
4643:
4569:
4560:
4370:
4312:
4286:
4238:
4193:
4140:
4027:
3982:
3956:
3938:
3894:
3846:
3766:
3757:
3616:
European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research
3603:
3494:
3458:
3383:
3303:
3211:
3161:
2085:
http://transition.fcc.gov/cgb/policy/TCPA-Rules.pdf
912:to hold a one-seat majority and retain government.
2861:Polls and Surveys: Understanding What They Tell Us
2587:
2126:. Pew Research Center Publications. Archived from
2007:"The Seven Stages of Public Opinion Public Agenda"
1987:What's In A Name? Global Warming vs Climate Change
1201:Historical polling for U.S. Presidential elections
205:, its survey of 2.3 million voters suggested that
174:'s election as president. Mailing out millions of
125:. A person who conducts polls is referred to as a
2782:"In Russia, opinion polls are a political weapon"
2656:
2654:
2445:"Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election"
1754:"About Response Rates: Some Unresolved Questions"
1695:Margin of Sampling Error and Credibility Interval
1348:other historical periods. Some have credited the
916:Social media as a source of opinion on candidates
3611:American Association for Public Opinion Research
3570:National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey
3092:American Association for Public Opinion Research
2505:. Continuum International Publishing Group Ltd.
2443:Allcott, Hunt; Gentzkow, Matthew (Spring 2017).
1256:American Association for Public Opinion Research
5145:Multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS)
2915:(1999) lists 10,000+ questions, but no results.
2700:, Library of Parliament, Canada, archived from
2609:Willems, Jurgen; Meyfroodt, Kenn (2024-01-30).
3565:List of household surveys in the United States
674:measures such as reliability coefficients, and
397:are polls taken during the period between the
311:Voter polling questionnaire on display at the
266:that was almost alone in correctly predicting
3700:
3631:World Association for Public Opinion Research
3138:
2922:3 vol (1972) summarizes results of each poll.
2541:Irwin, Galen A. and Joop J. M. Van Holsteyn.
2415:"News Use Across Social Media Platforms 2016"
2124:"How Serious Is Polling's Cell-Only Problem?"
1579:
1577:
1261:World Association for Public Opinion Research
1143:stated in 2015 that drawing conclusions from
244:, after having met Gallup, created IFOP, the
139:Raleigh Star and North Carolina State Gazette
43:The examples and perspective in this article
8:
3580:Suffolk University Political Research Center
3058:24.92 (2015): 197â202; polls in US and China
2689:
2687:
1551:
1549:
1063:thus even aggravate political polarization.
994:The opposite of the bandwagon effect is the
896:In New Zealand, the polls leading up to the
531:then one has to contend with errors in both
2150:"More Pollsters Interviewing By Cell Phone"
1539:G. Rowley, K. Barker, V. Callaghan (1986) â
1478:. Princeton University Press. p. vii.
157:by 335 votes to 169 in the contest for the
5754:
5741:
5658:
5464:
5333:
5308:
5079:
5055:
4783:
4566:
4367:
4354:
4137:
4124:
3763:
3754:
3741:
3707:
3693:
3685:
3145:
3131:
3123:
2998:, Patricia F. Phalen, Lawrence W. Lichty;
2920:The Gallup Poll; Public Opinion, 1935â1971
1953:: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (
1859:: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (
1652:: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (
1398:"Why the 1936 Literary Digest Poll Failed"
704:Involuntary facades and false correlations
182:also correctly predicted the victories of
2634:
2463:
1474:Cantril, Hadley; Strunk, Mildred (1951).
1469:
1467:
1345:American Watchman and Delaware Advertiser
788:Telephone Consumer Protection Act of 1991
505:whole population is often expressed as a
85:Learn how and when to remove this message
2859:Bradburn, Norman M. and Seymour Sudman.
2537:
2535:
2419:Pew Research Center's Journalism Project
1372:merely was reporting the results of the
1251:Roper Center for Public Opinion Research
650:percent) expressed that same sentiment.
3590:Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
1435:Encyclopedia of Survey Research Methods
1297:
594:also biases elections in the same way.
5671:KaplanâMeier estimator (product limit)
3575:New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study
3522:Comparative Study of Electoral Systems
2960:Oskamp, Stuart and P. Wesley Schultz;
2235:
2224:
1946:
1852:
1645:
1033:party-list proportional representation
221:sympathies. At the same time, Gallup,
2941:Presidential Polls and the News Media
2852:, "Public Opinion does not exist" in
1341:Star and North Carolina State Gazette
1010:. As he was then a Cabinet Minister,
729:In some places many people have only
661:The most effective controls, used by
7:
5981:
5681:Accelerated failure time (AFT) model
2899:Public Opinion, Polls, and Democracy
2366:from the original on 30 January 2019
1929:Asher, Herbert B. (16 August 2016).
1910:from the original on 28 October 2020
1874:Asher, Herbert B. (16 August 2016).
1835:Asher, Herbert B. (16 August 2016).
1804:"Episode 714: Can A Game Show Lose?"
1628:Asher, Herbert B. (16 August 2016).
1424:
1422:
1008:1997 United Kingdom general election
622:In opinion polling, there are also "
488:); these can be more controversial.
246:Institut Français d'Opinion Publique
5993:
5276:Analysis of variance (ANOVA, anova)
3621:International Statistical Institute
2990:The Voter's Guide to Election Polls
2661:Kaiser, Robert G. (March 9, 2011).
2200:Blumberg SJ, Luke JV (2007-05-14).
1035:opinion polling helps voters avoid
936:stories were more widely shared on
763:The potential sources of bias are:
345:generally considered professional.
5371:CochranâMantelâHaenszel statistics
3997:Pearson product-moment correlation
3512:American National Election Studies
3502:List of comparative social surveys
3002:Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 2000.
2636:1854/LU-01HNDE8TMQF8BFNFMTD2P3A21T
2310:"The Cellphone Problem, Revisited"
2284:"More Cell Phone Data from Gallup"
2009:. Publicagenda.org. Archived from
563:Survey results may be affected by
25:
2594:. Vancouver: UBC Press. pp.
2358:McCulloch, Craig (2 April 2017).
2347:. University of California Press.
2258:"The Cellphone effect, continued"
1431:"Crossley, Archibald (1896â1985)"
921:match traditional opinion polls.
446:. The results for one day showed
178:and simply counting the returns,
5992:
5980:
5968:
5955:
5954:
3029:Russian Journal of Communication
2697:Public opinion polling in Canada
2452:Journal of Economic Perspectives
1816:from the original on 1 July 2020
1074:
1039:their vote on a party below the
101:, often simply referred to as a
34:
5630:Least-squares spectral analysis
2801:Yaffa, Joshua (29 March 2022).
2673:from the original on 2011-06-29
2483:from the original on 2017-10-18
2425:from the original on 2017-01-15
2396:from the original on 2020-06-03
2316:from the original on 2009-01-06
2282:Blumenthal, Mark (2008-10-17).
2264:from the original on 2008-12-04
2214:from the original on 2009-06-06
2207:. Centers for Disease Control.
2174:Blumenthal, Mark (2008-07-17).
2148:Blumenthal, Mark (2008-09-19).
1766:from the original on 2017-07-20
1610:from the original on 2012-11-04
1563:from the original on 2015-11-11
1482:from the original on 2009-06-29
1408:from the original on 2022-01-04
926:2016 U.S. presidential election
492:Margin of error due to sampling
454:with an eleven-point lead over
4611:Mean-unbiased minimum-variance
2939:Lavrakas, Paul J. et al. eds.
2561:Scandinavian Political Studies
2529:, page 42. Random House, 1993.
2286:. Pollster.com. Archived from
2152:. Pollster.com. Archived from
1:
5924:Geographic information system
5140:Simultaneous equations models
3064:Global Environmental Politics
3056:Journal of Contemporary China
2906:Public Opinion in a Democracy
2894:(1987), the standard history.
2694:Claude Emery (January 1994),
2627:10.1080/09540962.2024.2306912
2615:Public Money & Management
2527:Safire's Political Dictionary
2176:"New Pew data on cell phones"
1206:List of polling organizations
1135:Opinion poll in dictatorships
1022:but opinion polls showed the
864:1948 US presidential election
262:launched a subsidiary in the
5107:Coefficient of determination
4718:Uniformly most powerful test
2343:Campbell, W. Joseph (2020).
2122:Keeter, Scott (2007-06-27).
1506:. Basic Books. p. 235.
5676:Proportional hazards models
5620:Spectral density estimation
5602:Vector autoregression (VAR)
5036:Maximum posterior estimator
4268:Randomized controlled trial
3555:International Social Survey
2918:Gallup, George Horace, ed.
2308:Silver, Nate (2008-07-22).
1784:Response Rates: An Overview
1476:"Public Opinion, 1935â1946"
1429:Dietrich, Bryce J. (2008),
760:, than polls that did not.
61:, discuss the issue on the
6072:
5436:Multivariate distributions
3856:Average absolute deviation
2590:Voting Behaviour in Canada
2178:. Pollster. Archived from
1900:"Question Wording - AAPOR"
1727:Will Oremus (2012-05-17).
1604:"About the Tracking Polls"
1319:10.1177/107769907204900219
1128:Western democratic nations
1112:1976 presidential campaign
1048:Voting Behaviour in Canada
881:, and Labour's victory in
303:Sample and polling methods
147:1824 presidential election
47:the English-speaking world
5950:
5753:
5740:
5424:Structural equation model
5332:
5307:
5078:
5054:
4786:
4760:Score/Lagrange multiplier
4366:
4353:
4175:Sample size determination
4136:
4123:
3753:
3740:
3722:
3639:
3585:The Phillips Academy Poll
3413:Exploratory data analysis
3266:Sample size determination
2882:Public Opinion, 1935â1946
2880:and Mildred Strunk, eds.
2735:10.1080/00344890208523210
1752:Langer, Gary (May 2003).
1396:Squire, Peverill (1988).
1266:Sample size determination
1231:Political data scientists
1171:Deliberative opinion poll
330:Angus Reid Public Opinion
6056:Surveys (human research)
5919:Environmental statistics
5441:Elliptical distributions
5234:Generalized linear model
5163:Simple linear regression
4933:HodgesâLehmann estimator
4390:Probability distribution
4299:Stochastic approximation
3861:Coefficient of variation
2846:(4th ed. CQ Press, 1998)
1402:Public Opinion Quarterly
1350:Harrisburg Pennsylvanian
1158:2022 war censorship laws
900:predicted the governing
854:was the prediction that
801:1992 UK general election
795:1992 UK general election
750:US presidential election
711:self-fulfilling prophecy
471:Potential for inaccuracy
278:, led by wartime leader
159:United States Presidency
5579:Cross-correlation (XCF)
5187:Non-standard predictors
4621:LehmannâScheffĂ© theorem
4294:Adaptive clinical trial
3526:Emerson College Polling
3418:Multivariate statistics
3261:Nonprobability sampling
3117:The Pew Research Center
2929:(2 vol. Abc-clio, 2004)
2573:10.1111/1467-9477.12087
2555:Fredén, Annika (2017).
2312:. FiveThirtyEight.com.
2260:. FiveThirtyEight.com.
626:", otherwise known as "
592:plurality voting system
588:plurality voting system
313:Smithsonian Institution
49:and do not represent a
18:Public opinion research
5975:Mathematics portal
5796:Engineering statistics
5704:NelsonâAalen estimator
5281:Analysis of covariance
5168:Ordinary least squares
5092:Pearson product-moment
4496:Statistical functional
4407:Empirical distribution
4240:Controlled experiments
3969:Frequency distribution
3747:Descriptive statistics
3535:European Social Survey
3517:Asian Barometer Survey
3408:Descriptive statistics
3293:Cross-sequential study
3246:Simple random sampling
3048:35.2 (2019): 227â237.
2962:Attitudes and Opinions
2868:Gauging Public Opinion
2856:, London, Sage (1995).
2234:Cite journal requires
1500:Jackson Lears (1995).
1150:state-controlled media
745:
688:cognitive interviewing
360:public through polls.
315:
6046:Sampling (statistics)
5891:Population statistics
5833:System identification
5567:Autocorrelation (ACF)
5495:Exponential smoothing
5409:Discriminant analysis
5404:Canonical correlation
5268:Partition of variance
5130:Regression validation
4974:(JonckheereâTerpstra)
4873:Likelihood-ratio test
4562:Frequentist inference
4474:Locationâscale family
4395:Sampling distribution
4360:Statistical inference
4327:Cross-sectional study
4314:Observational studies
4273:Randomized experiment
4102:Stem-and-leaf display
3904:Central limit theorem
3545:General Social Survey
3428:Statistical inference
3288:Cross-sectional study
3112:UCB Libraries GovPubs
3036:American psychologist
3024:39.3 (2020): 462â470.
2988:Traugott, Michael W.
2854:Sociology in Question
2490:– via Stanford.
2362:. Radio New Zealand.
1812:. NPR. 27 July 2016.
1443:10.4135/9781412963947
1236:Political forecasting
1067:Effect on politicians
1018:was believed to be a
898:1993 general election
743:
464:polling organizations
321:electronic clipboards
310:
272:1945 general election
111:human research survey
5814:Probabilistic design
5399:Principal components
5242:Exponential families
5194:Nonlinear regression
5173:General linear model
5135:Mixed effects models
5125:Errors and residuals
5102:Confounding variable
5004:Bayesian probability
4982:Van der Waerden test
4972:Ordered alternative
4737:Multiple comparisons
4616:RaoâBlackwellization
4579:Estimating equations
4535:Statistical distance
4253:Factorial experiment
3786:Arithmetic-Geometric
3466:Audience measurement
3403:Level of measurement
3236:Sampling for surveys
3076:10.1162/glep_a_00215
3031:6#2 (2014): 173â176.
2967:Robinson, Claude E.
2911:Gallup, Alec M. ed.
2465:10.1257/jep.31.2.211
1307:Journalism Quarterly
1139:The director of the
870:Electoral College).
606:Wording of questions
502:law of large numbers
123:confidence intervals
67:create a new article
59:improve this article
45:deal primarily with
5886:Official statistics
5809:Methods engineering
5490:Seasonal adjustment
5258:Poisson regressions
5178:Bayesian regression
5117:Regression analysis
5097:Partial correlation
5069:Regression analysis
4668:Prediction interval
4663:Likelihood interval
4653:Confidence interval
4645:Interval estimation
4606:Unbiased estimators
4424:Model specification
4304:Up-and-down designs
3992:Partial correlation
3948:Index of dispersion
3866:Interquartile range
3626:Pew Research Center
3595:World Values Survey
3338:Specification error
3256:Stratified sampling
3038:75.3 (2020): 301+.
2667:The Washington Post
1526:Jean M. Converse,"
1343:and the Wilmington
1211:Metallic Metals Act
1181:Electoral geography
1041:electoral threshold
1014:'s constituency of
724:The Literary Digest
444:Gallup Organization
250:Why die for Danzig?
240:In September 1938,
231:The Literary Digest
180:The Literary Digest
167:The Literary Digest
6031:Survey methodology
5906:Spatial statistics
5786:Medical statistics
5686:First hitting time
5640:Whittle likelihood
5291:Degrees of freedom
5286:Multivariate ANOVA
5219:Heteroscedasticity
5031:Bayesian estimator
4996:Bayesian inference
4845:KolmogorovâSmirnov
4730:Randomization test
4700:Testing hypotheses
4673:Tolerance interval
4584:Maximum likelihood
4479:Exponential family
4412:Density estimation
4372:Statistical theory
4332:Natural experiment
4278:Scientific control
4195:Survey methodology
3881:Standard deviation
3433:Statistical models
3333:Non-sampling error
3231:Statistical sample
3171:Collection methods
3014:Additional sources
3005:Young, Michael L.
2974:Robinson, Matthew
2890:Converse, Jean M.
2108:2016-05-18 at the
2090:2015-05-21 at the
1992:2016-08-13 at the
1973:2016-05-18 at the
1789:2019-07-12 at the
1700:2016-07-07 at the
1681:2016-06-04 at the
1415:– via Issuu.
1281:Types of democracy
1191:Everett Carll Ladd
1086:. You can help by
961:The Broken Compass
813:Conservative Party
746:
665:researchers, are:
639:Roper Organization
316:
276:Conservative Party
223:Archibald Crossley
215:participation bias
196:Franklin Roosevelt
117:from a particular
6008:
6007:
5946:
5945:
5942:
5941:
5881:National accounts
5851:Actuarial science
5843:Social statistics
5736:
5735:
5732:
5731:
5728:
5727:
5663:Survival function
5648:
5647:
5510:Granger causality
5351:Contingency table
5326:Survival analysis
5303:
5302:
5299:
5298:
5155:Linear regression
5050:
5049:
5046:
5045:
5021:Credible interval
4990:
4989:
4773:
4772:
4589:Method of moments
4458:Parametric family
4419:Statistical model
4349:
4348:
4345:
4344:
4263:Random assignment
4185:Statistical power
4119:
4118:
4115:
4114:
3964:Contingency table
3934:
3933:
3801:Generalized/power
3682:
3681:
3398:Contingency table
3373:Processing errors
3358:Non-response bias
3348:Measurement error
3328:Systematic errors
2981:Rogers, Lindsay.
2925:Geer, John Gray.
2866:Cantril, Hadley.
2525:Safire, William,
2512:978-1-84706-405-9
1940:978-1-5063-5242-8
1885:978-1-5063-5242-8
1846:978-1-5063-5242-8
1639:978-1-5063-5242-8
1530:(1987) pp: 114-24
1374:American Watchman
1226:Political analyst
1104:
1103:
1016:Enfield Southgate
835:spiral of silence
731:mobile telephones
641:, concerning the
613:leading questions
581:spiral of silence
549:non-response bias
284:Allied occupation
280:Winston Churchill
155:John Quincy Adams
95:
94:
87:
69:, as appropriate.
16:(Redirected from
6063:
6041:Social influence
6026:Types of polling
5996:
5995:
5984:
5983:
5973:
5972:
5958:
5957:
5861:Crime statistics
5755:
5742:
5659:
5625:Fourier analysis
5612:Frequency domain
5592:
5539:
5505:Structural break
5465:
5414:Cluster analysis
5361:Log-linear model
5334:
5309:
5250:
5224:Homoscedasticity
5080:
5056:
4975:
4967:
4959:
4958:(KruskalâWallis)
4943:
4928:
4883:Cross validation
4868:
4850:AndersonâDarling
4797:
4784:
4755:Likelihood-ratio
4747:Parametric tests
4725:Permutation test
4708:1- & 2-tails
4599:Minimum distance
4571:Point estimation
4567:
4518:Optimal decision
4469:
4368:
4355:
4337:Quasi-experiment
4287:Adaptive designs
4138:
4125:
4002:Rank correlation
3764:
3755:
3742:
3709:
3702:
3695:
3686:
3393:Categorical data
3147:
3140:
3133:
3124:
3087:
2996:James G. Webster
2946:Moore, David W.
2904:Gallup, George.
2897:Crespi, Irving.
2850:Bourdieu, Pierre
2842:Asher, Herbert:
2831:
2830:
2829:. 30 April 2023.
2817:
2811:
2810:
2798:
2792:
2791:
2778:
2772:
2771:
2769:
2767:
2753:
2747:
2746:
2718:
2712:
2711:
2710:
2709:
2691:
2682:
2681:
2679:
2678:
2658:
2649:
2648:
2638:
2606:
2600:
2599:
2593:
2583:
2577:
2576:
2552:
2546:
2539:
2530:
2523:
2517:
2516:
2498:
2492:
2491:
2489:
2488:
2482:
2467:
2449:
2440:
2434:
2433:
2431:
2430:
2411:
2405:
2404:
2402:
2401:
2382:
2376:
2375:
2373:
2371:
2355:
2349:
2348:
2340:
2334:
2331:
2325:
2324:
2322:
2321:
2305:
2299:
2298:
2296:
2295:
2279:
2273:
2272:
2270:
2269:
2250:
2244:
2243:
2237:
2232:
2230:
2222:
2220:
2219:
2213:
2206:
2197:
2191:
2190:
2188:
2187:
2171:
2165:
2164:
2162:
2161:
2145:
2139:
2138:
2136:
2135:
2119:
2113:
2100:
2094:
2082:
2076:
2073:
2067:
2064:
2058:
2055:
2049:
2046:
2040:
2037:
2031:
2028:
2022:
2021:
2019:
2018:
2003:
1997:
1984:
1978:
1965:
1959:
1958:
1952:
1944:
1926:
1920:
1919:
1917:
1915:
1896:
1890:
1889:
1871:
1865:
1864:
1858:
1850:
1832:
1826:
1825:
1823:
1821:
1800:
1794:
1781:
1775:
1774:
1772:
1771:
1765:
1758:
1749:
1743:
1742:
1740:
1739:
1724:
1718:
1713:Lynch, Scott M.
1711:
1705:
1692:
1686:
1673:
1667:
1664:
1658:
1657:
1651:
1643:
1625:
1619:
1618:
1616:
1615:
1600:
1594:
1591:
1585:
1581:
1572:
1571:
1569:
1568:
1553:
1544:
1537:
1531:
1524:
1518:
1517:
1497:
1491:
1490:
1488:
1487:
1471:
1462:
1461:
1460:
1459:
1426:
1417:
1416:
1414:
1413:
1393:
1387:
1386:
1302:
1276:Swing (politics)
1216:Open access poll
1099:
1096:
1078:
1071:
1012:Michael Portillo
1004:strategic voting
974:bandwagon effect
954:Effect on voters
624:loaded questions
543:Nonresponse bias
405:. The number of
90:
83:
79:
76:
70:
38:
37:
30:
21:
6071:
6070:
6066:
6065:
6064:
6062:
6061:
6060:
6011:
6010:
6009:
6004:
5967:
5938:
5900:
5837:
5823:quality control
5790:
5772:Clinical trials
5749:
5724:
5708:
5696:Hazard function
5690:
5644:
5606:
5590:
5553:
5549:BreuschâGodfrey
5537:
5514:
5454:
5429:Factor analysis
5375:
5356:Graphical model
5328:
5295:
5262:
5248:
5228:
5182:
5149:
5111:
5074:
5073:
5042:
4986:
4973:
4965:
4957:
4941:
4926:
4905:Rank statistics
4899:
4878:Model selection
4866:
4824:Goodness of fit
4818:
4795:
4769:
4741:
4694:
4639:
4628:Median unbiased
4556:
4467:
4400:Order statistic
4362:
4341:
4308:
4282:
4234:
4189:
4132:
4130:Data collection
4111:
4023:
3978:
3952:
3930:
3890:
3842:
3759:Continuous data
3749:
3736:
3718:
3713:
3683:
3678:
3635:
3599:
3560:LatinobarĂłmetro
3490:
3476:Market research
3454:
3379:
3353:Response errors
3299:
3273:Research design
3241:Random sampling
3207:
3191:Semi-structured
3163:Data collection
3157:
3155:survey research
3151:
3104:
3061:
3016:
2992:3rd ed. (2004).
2936:(1999) textbook
2878:Cantril, Hadley
2839:
2834:
2819:
2818:
2814:
2800:
2799:
2795:
2790:. 9 March 2022.
2780:
2779:
2775:
2765:
2763:
2755:
2754:
2750:
2720:
2719:
2715:
2707:
2705:
2693:
2692:
2685:
2676:
2674:
2660:
2659:
2652:
2608:
2607:
2603:
2585:
2584:
2580:
2554:
2553:
2549:
2540:
2533:
2524:
2520:
2513:
2500:
2499:
2495:
2486:
2484:
2480:
2447:
2442:
2441:
2437:
2428:
2426:
2413:
2412:
2408:
2399:
2397:
2384:
2383:
2379:
2369:
2367:
2357:
2356:
2352:
2342:
2341:
2337:
2332:
2328:
2319:
2317:
2307:
2306:
2302:
2293:
2291:
2281:
2280:
2276:
2267:
2265:
2252:
2251:
2247:
2233:
2223:
2217:
2215:
2211:
2204:
2199:
2198:
2194:
2185:
2183:
2173:
2172:
2168:
2159:
2157:
2147:
2146:
2142:
2133:
2131:
2121:
2120:
2116:
2110:Wayback Machine
2101:
2097:
2092:Wayback Machine
2083:
2079:
2074:
2070:
2065:
2061:
2056:
2052:
2047:
2043:
2038:
2034:
2029:
2025:
2016:
2014:
2005:
2004:
2000:
1994:Wayback Machine
1985:
1981:
1975:Wayback Machine
1966:
1962:
1945:
1941:
1928:
1927:
1923:
1913:
1911:
1898:
1897:
1893:
1886:
1873:
1872:
1868:
1851:
1847:
1834:
1833:
1829:
1819:
1817:
1802:
1801:
1797:
1791:Wayback Machine
1782:
1778:
1769:
1767:
1763:
1756:
1751:
1750:
1746:
1737:
1735:
1726:
1725:
1721:
1712:
1708:
1702:Wayback Machine
1693:
1689:
1683:Wayback Machine
1674:
1670:
1665:
1661:
1644:
1640:
1627:
1626:
1622:
1613:
1611:
1602:
1601:
1597:
1592:
1588:
1582:
1575:
1566:
1564:
1555:
1554:
1547:
1538:
1534:
1525:
1521:
1514:
1499:
1498:
1494:
1485:
1483:
1473:
1472:
1465:
1457:
1455:
1453:
1428:
1427:
1420:
1411:
1409:
1395:
1394:
1390:
1366:New York Herald
1304:
1303:
1299:
1295:
1290:
1166:
1137:
1120:
1100:
1094:
1091:
1084:needs expansion
1069:
956:
951:
918:
860:Harry S. Truman
848:
831:Shy Tory factor
797:
720:
706:
635:Double-Negative
628:trick questions
608:
561:
545:
507:margin of error
494:
486:Shy Tory Factor
473:
423:
414:Brushfire polls
407:brushfire polls
395:Brushfire polls
392:
390:Brushfire polls
366:
364:Benchmark polls
305:
270:victory in the
188:Calvin Coolidge
135:
91:
80:
74:
71:
56:
39:
35:
28:
23:
22:
15:
12:
11:
5:
6069:
6067:
6059:
6058:
6053:
6048:
6043:
6038:
6036:Public opinion
6033:
6028:
6023:
6013:
6012:
6006:
6005:
6003:
6002:
5990:
5978:
5964:
5951:
5948:
5947:
5944:
5943:
5940:
5939:
5937:
5936:
5931:
5926:
5921:
5916:
5910:
5908:
5902:
5901:
5899:
5898:
5893:
5888:
5883:
5878:
5873:
5868:
5863:
5858:
5853:
5847:
5845:
5839:
5838:
5836:
5835:
5830:
5825:
5816:
5811:
5806:
5800:
5798:
5792:
5791:
5789:
5788:
5783:
5778:
5769:
5767:Bioinformatics
5763:
5761:
5751:
5750:
5745:
5738:
5737:
5734:
5733:
5730:
5729:
5726:
5725:
5723:
5722:
5716:
5714:
5710:
5709:
5707:
5706:
5700:
5698:
5692:
5691:
5689:
5688:
5683:
5678:
5673:
5667:
5665:
5656:
5650:
5649:
5646:
5645:
5643:
5642:
5637:
5632:
5627:
5622:
5616:
5614:
5608:
5607:
5605:
5604:
5599:
5594:
5586:
5581:
5576:
5575:
5574:
5572:partial (PACF)
5563:
5561:
5555:
5554:
5552:
5551:
5546:
5541:
5533:
5528:
5522:
5520:
5519:Specific tests
5516:
5515:
5513:
5512:
5507:
5502:
5497:
5492:
5487:
5482:
5477:
5471:
5469:
5462:
5456:
5455:
5453:
5452:
5451:
5450:
5449:
5448:
5433:
5432:
5431:
5421:
5419:Classification
5416:
5411:
5406:
5401:
5396:
5391:
5385:
5383:
5377:
5376:
5374:
5373:
5368:
5366:McNemar's test
5363:
5358:
5353:
5348:
5342:
5340:
5330:
5329:
5312:
5305:
5304:
5301:
5300:
5297:
5296:
5294:
5293:
5288:
5283:
5278:
5272:
5270:
5264:
5263:
5261:
5260:
5244:
5238:
5236:
5230:
5229:
5227:
5226:
5221:
5216:
5211:
5206:
5204:Semiparametric
5201:
5196:
5190:
5188:
5184:
5183:
5181:
5180:
5175:
5170:
5165:
5159:
5157:
5151:
5150:
5148:
5147:
5142:
5137:
5132:
5127:
5121:
5119:
5113:
5112:
5110:
5109:
5104:
5099:
5094:
5088:
5086:
5076:
5075:
5072:
5071:
5066:
5060:
5059:
5052:
5051:
5048:
5047:
5044:
5043:
5041:
5040:
5039:
5038:
5028:
5023:
5018:
5017:
5016:
5011:
5000:
4998:
4992:
4991:
4988:
4987:
4985:
4984:
4979:
4978:
4977:
4969:
4961:
4945:
4942:(MannâWhitney)
4937:
4936:
4935:
4922:
4921:
4920:
4909:
4907:
4901:
4900:
4898:
4897:
4896:
4895:
4890:
4885:
4875:
4870:
4867:(ShapiroâWilk)
4862:
4857:
4852:
4847:
4842:
4834:
4828:
4826:
4820:
4819:
4817:
4816:
4808:
4799:
4787:
4781:
4779:Specific tests
4775:
4774:
4771:
4770:
4768:
4767:
4762:
4757:
4751:
4749:
4743:
4742:
4740:
4739:
4734:
4733:
4732:
4722:
4721:
4720:
4710:
4704:
4702:
4696:
4695:
4693:
4692:
4691:
4690:
4685:
4675:
4670:
4665:
4660:
4655:
4649:
4647:
4641:
4640:
4638:
4637:
4632:
4631:
4630:
4625:
4624:
4623:
4618:
4603:
4602:
4601:
4596:
4591:
4586:
4575:
4573:
4564:
4558:
4557:
4555:
4554:
4549:
4544:
4543:
4542:
4532:
4527:
4526:
4525:
4515:
4514:
4513:
4508:
4503:
4493:
4488:
4483:
4482:
4481:
4476:
4471:
4455:
4454:
4453:
4448:
4443:
4433:
4432:
4431:
4426:
4416:
4415:
4414:
4404:
4403:
4402:
4392:
4387:
4382:
4376:
4374:
4364:
4363:
4358:
4351:
4350:
4347:
4346:
4343:
4342:
4340:
4339:
4334:
4329:
4324:
4318:
4316:
4310:
4309:
4307:
4306:
4301:
4296:
4290:
4288:
4284:
4283:
4281:
4280:
4275:
4270:
4265:
4260:
4255:
4250:
4244:
4242:
4236:
4235:
4233:
4232:
4230:Standard error
4227:
4222:
4217:
4216:
4215:
4210:
4199:
4197:
4191:
4190:
4188:
4187:
4182:
4177:
4172:
4167:
4162:
4160:Optimal design
4157:
4152:
4146:
4144:
4134:
4133:
4128:
4121:
4120:
4117:
4116:
4113:
4112:
4110:
4109:
4104:
4099:
4094:
4089:
4084:
4079:
4074:
4069:
4064:
4059:
4054:
4049:
4044:
4039:
4033:
4031:
4025:
4024:
4022:
4021:
4016:
4015:
4014:
4009:
3999:
3994:
3988:
3986:
3980:
3979:
3977:
3976:
3971:
3966:
3960:
3958:
3957:Summary tables
3954:
3953:
3951:
3950:
3944:
3942:
3936:
3935:
3932:
3931:
3929:
3928:
3927:
3926:
3921:
3916:
3906:
3900:
3898:
3892:
3891:
3889:
3888:
3883:
3878:
3873:
3868:
3863:
3858:
3852:
3850:
3844:
3843:
3841:
3840:
3835:
3830:
3829:
3828:
3823:
3818:
3813:
3808:
3803:
3798:
3793:
3791:Contraharmonic
3788:
3783:
3772:
3770:
3761:
3751:
3750:
3745:
3738:
3737:
3735:
3734:
3729:
3723:
3720:
3719:
3714:
3712:
3711:
3704:
3697:
3689:
3680:
3679:
3677:
3676:
3675:
3674:
3669:
3664:
3659:
3654:
3646:
3640:
3637:
3636:
3634:
3633:
3628:
3623:
3618:
3613:
3607:
3605:
3601:
3600:
3598:
3597:
3592:
3587:
3582:
3577:
3572:
3567:
3562:
3557:
3552:
3547:
3542:
3537:
3532:
3527:
3524:
3519:
3514:
3509:
3504:
3498:
3496:
3492:
3491:
3489:
3488:
3486:Public opinion
3483:
3478:
3473:
3468:
3462:
3460:
3456:
3455:
3453:
3452:
3451:
3450:
3445:
3440:
3430:
3425:
3420:
3415:
3410:
3405:
3400:
3395:
3389:
3387:
3381:
3380:
3378:
3377:
3376:
3375:
3370:
3368:Pseudo-opinion
3365:
3363:Coverage error
3360:
3355:
3350:
3345:
3340:
3330:
3325:
3320:
3318:Standard error
3315:
3313:Sampling error
3309:
3307:
3301:
3300:
3298:
3297:
3296:
3295:
3290:
3285:
3280:
3270:
3269:
3268:
3263:
3258:
3253:
3251:Quota sampling
3248:
3243:
3233:
3228:
3226:Sampling frame
3223:
3217:
3215:
3209:
3208:
3206:
3205:
3204:
3203:
3198:
3193:
3188:
3178:
3173:
3167:
3165:
3159:
3158:
3152:
3150:
3149:
3142:
3135:
3127:
3121:
3120:
3114:
3103:
3102:External links
3100:
3099:
3098:
3088:
3059:
3052:
3042:
3032:
3025:
3022:Health Affairs
3015:
3012:
3011:
3010:
3003:
2993:
2986:
2979:
2972:
2965:
2958:
2951:
2944:
2937:
2934:Public Opinion
2930:
2923:
2916:
2909:
2902:
2895:
2888:
2875:
2864:
2857:
2847:
2838:
2835:
2833:
2832:
2812:
2807:The New Yorker
2793:
2773:
2748:
2723:Representation
2713:
2683:
2650:
2621:(3): 185â186.
2601:
2578:
2567:(3): 247â264.
2547:
2531:
2518:
2511:
2493:
2458:(2): 211â236.
2435:
2421:. 2016-05-26.
2406:
2392:. 2019-06-10.
2377:
2350:
2335:
2326:
2300:
2274:
2256:(2008-11-02).
2245:
2236:|journal=
2192:
2166:
2140:
2114:
2095:
2077:
2068:
2059:
2050:
2041:
2032:
2023:
1998:
1979:
1960:
1939:
1921:
1891:
1884:
1866:
1845:
1827:
1795:
1776:
1744:
1719:
1706:
1687:
1668:
1659:
1638:
1620:
1595:
1586:
1573:
1545:
1532:
1519:
1512:
1492:
1463:
1451:
1418:
1388:
1362:Chicago Record
1313:(2): 361â365.
1296:
1294:
1291:
1289:
1288:
1283:
1278:
1273:
1268:
1263:
1258:
1253:
1248:
1243:
1238:
1233:
1228:
1223:
1218:
1213:
1208:
1203:
1198:
1193:
1188:
1183:
1178:
1173:
1167:
1165:
1162:
1136:
1133:
1126:However, most
1119:
1116:
1102:
1101:
1081:
1079:
1068:
1065:
978:William Safire
966:Peter Hitchens
955:
952:
950:
947:
924:Regarding the
917:
914:
902:National Party
847:
844:
839:
838:
827:
824:
796:
793:
792:
791:
784:
776:
775:
772:
769:
754:coverage error
719:
716:
705:
702:
701:
700:
697:
694:
691:
679:
678:
675:
607:
604:
577:Bradley effect
560:
557:
553:selection bias
544:
541:
498:sampling error
493:
490:
482:Bradley effect
472:
469:
460:George W. Bush
435:moving average
422:
421:Tracking polls
419:
403:tracking polls
399:benchmark poll
391:
388:
383:benchmark poll
378:benchmark poll
370:benchmark poll
365:
362:
304:
301:
288:denazification
264:United Kingdom
192:Herbert Hoover
184:Warren Harding
172:Woodrow Wilson
151:Andrew Jackson
134:
131:
115:public opinion
93:
92:
53:of the subject
51:worldwide view
42:
40:
33:
27:Type of survey
26:
24:
14:
13:
10:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
6068:
6057:
6054:
6052:
6049:
6047:
6044:
6042:
6039:
6037:
6034:
6032:
6029:
6027:
6024:
6022:
6019:
6018:
6016:
6001:
6000:
5991:
5989:
5988:
5979:
5977:
5976:
5971:
5965:
5963:
5962:
5953:
5952:
5949:
5935:
5932:
5930:
5929:Geostatistics
5927:
5925:
5922:
5920:
5917:
5915:
5912:
5911:
5909:
5907:
5903:
5897:
5896:Psychometrics
5894:
5892:
5889:
5887:
5884:
5882:
5879:
5877:
5874:
5872:
5869:
5867:
5864:
5862:
5859:
5857:
5854:
5852:
5849:
5848:
5846:
5844:
5840:
5834:
5831:
5829:
5826:
5824:
5820:
5817:
5815:
5812:
5810:
5807:
5805:
5802:
5801:
5799:
5797:
5793:
5787:
5784:
5782:
5779:
5777:
5773:
5770:
5768:
5765:
5764:
5762:
5760:
5759:Biostatistics
5756:
5752:
5748:
5743:
5739:
5721:
5720:Log-rank test
5718:
5717:
5715:
5711:
5705:
5702:
5701:
5699:
5697:
5693:
5687:
5684:
5682:
5679:
5677:
5674:
5672:
5669:
5668:
5666:
5664:
5660:
5657:
5655:
5651:
5641:
5638:
5636:
5633:
5631:
5628:
5626:
5623:
5621:
5618:
5617:
5615:
5613:
5609:
5603:
5600:
5598:
5595:
5593:
5591:(BoxâJenkins)
5587:
5585:
5582:
5580:
5577:
5573:
5570:
5569:
5568:
5565:
5564:
5562:
5560:
5556:
5550:
5547:
5545:
5544:DurbinâWatson
5542:
5540:
5534:
5532:
5529:
5527:
5526:DickeyâFuller
5524:
5523:
5521:
5517:
5511:
5508:
5506:
5503:
5501:
5500:Cointegration
5498:
5496:
5493:
5491:
5488:
5486:
5483:
5481:
5478:
5476:
5475:Decomposition
5473:
5472:
5470:
5466:
5463:
5461:
5457:
5447:
5444:
5443:
5442:
5439:
5438:
5437:
5434:
5430:
5427:
5426:
5425:
5422:
5420:
5417:
5415:
5412:
5410:
5407:
5405:
5402:
5400:
5397:
5395:
5392:
5390:
5387:
5386:
5384:
5382:
5378:
5372:
5369:
5367:
5364:
5362:
5359:
5357:
5354:
5352:
5349:
5347:
5346:Cohen's kappa
5344:
5343:
5341:
5339:
5335:
5331:
5327:
5323:
5319:
5315:
5310:
5306:
5292:
5289:
5287:
5284:
5282:
5279:
5277:
5274:
5273:
5271:
5269:
5265:
5259:
5255:
5251:
5245:
5243:
5240:
5239:
5237:
5235:
5231:
5225:
5222:
5220:
5217:
5215:
5212:
5210:
5207:
5205:
5202:
5200:
5199:Nonparametric
5197:
5195:
5192:
5191:
5189:
5185:
5179:
5176:
5174:
5171:
5169:
5166:
5164:
5161:
5160:
5158:
5156:
5152:
5146:
5143:
5141:
5138:
5136:
5133:
5131:
5128:
5126:
5123:
5122:
5120:
5118:
5114:
5108:
5105:
5103:
5100:
5098:
5095:
5093:
5090:
5089:
5087:
5085:
5081:
5077:
5070:
5067:
5065:
5062:
5061:
5057:
5053:
5037:
5034:
5033:
5032:
5029:
5027:
5024:
5022:
5019:
5015:
5012:
5010:
5007:
5006:
5005:
5002:
5001:
4999:
4997:
4993:
4983:
4980:
4976:
4970:
4968:
4962:
4960:
4954:
4953:
4952:
4949:
4948:Nonparametric
4946:
4944:
4938:
4934:
4931:
4930:
4929:
4923:
4919:
4918:Sample median
4916:
4915:
4914:
4911:
4910:
4908:
4906:
4902:
4894:
4891:
4889:
4886:
4884:
4881:
4880:
4879:
4876:
4874:
4871:
4869:
4863:
4861:
4858:
4856:
4853:
4851:
4848:
4846:
4843:
4841:
4839:
4835:
4833:
4830:
4829:
4827:
4825:
4821:
4815:
4813:
4809:
4807:
4805:
4800:
4798:
4793:
4789:
4788:
4785:
4782:
4780:
4776:
4766:
4763:
4761:
4758:
4756:
4753:
4752:
4750:
4748:
4744:
4738:
4735:
4731:
4728:
4727:
4726:
4723:
4719:
4716:
4715:
4714:
4711:
4709:
4706:
4705:
4703:
4701:
4697:
4689:
4686:
4684:
4681:
4680:
4679:
4676:
4674:
4671:
4669:
4666:
4664:
4661:
4659:
4656:
4654:
4651:
4650:
4648:
4646:
4642:
4636:
4633:
4629:
4626:
4622:
4619:
4617:
4614:
4613:
4612:
4609:
4608:
4607:
4604:
4600:
4597:
4595:
4592:
4590:
4587:
4585:
4582:
4581:
4580:
4577:
4576:
4574:
4572:
4568:
4565:
4563:
4559:
4553:
4550:
4548:
4545:
4541:
4538:
4537:
4536:
4533:
4531:
4528:
4524:
4523:loss function
4521:
4520:
4519:
4516:
4512:
4509:
4507:
4504:
4502:
4499:
4498:
4497:
4494:
4492:
4489:
4487:
4484:
4480:
4477:
4475:
4472:
4470:
4464:
4461:
4460:
4459:
4456:
4452:
4449:
4447:
4444:
4442:
4439:
4438:
4437:
4434:
4430:
4427:
4425:
4422:
4421:
4420:
4417:
4413:
4410:
4409:
4408:
4405:
4401:
4398:
4397:
4396:
4393:
4391:
4388:
4386:
4383:
4381:
4378:
4377:
4375:
4373:
4369:
4365:
4361:
4356:
4352:
4338:
4335:
4333:
4330:
4328:
4325:
4323:
4320:
4319:
4317:
4315:
4311:
4305:
4302:
4300:
4297:
4295:
4292:
4291:
4289:
4285:
4279:
4276:
4274:
4271:
4269:
4266:
4264:
4261:
4259:
4256:
4254:
4251:
4249:
4246:
4245:
4243:
4241:
4237:
4231:
4228:
4226:
4225:Questionnaire
4223:
4221:
4218:
4214:
4211:
4209:
4206:
4205:
4204:
4201:
4200:
4198:
4196:
4192:
4186:
4183:
4181:
4178:
4176:
4173:
4171:
4168:
4166:
4163:
4161:
4158:
4156:
4153:
4151:
4148:
4147:
4145:
4143:
4139:
4135:
4131:
4126:
4122:
4108:
4105:
4103:
4100:
4098:
4095:
4093:
4090:
4088:
4085:
4083:
4080:
4078:
4075:
4073:
4070:
4068:
4065:
4063:
4060:
4058:
4055:
4053:
4052:Control chart
4050:
4048:
4045:
4043:
4040:
4038:
4035:
4034:
4032:
4030:
4026:
4020:
4017:
4013:
4010:
4008:
4005:
4004:
4003:
4000:
3998:
3995:
3993:
3990:
3989:
3987:
3985:
3981:
3975:
3972:
3970:
3967:
3965:
3962:
3961:
3959:
3955:
3949:
3946:
3945:
3943:
3941:
3937:
3925:
3922:
3920:
3917:
3915:
3912:
3911:
3910:
3907:
3905:
3902:
3901:
3899:
3897:
3893:
3887:
3884:
3882:
3879:
3877:
3874:
3872:
3869:
3867:
3864:
3862:
3859:
3857:
3854:
3853:
3851:
3849:
3845:
3839:
3836:
3834:
3831:
3827:
3824:
3822:
3819:
3817:
3814:
3812:
3809:
3807:
3804:
3802:
3799:
3797:
3794:
3792:
3789:
3787:
3784:
3782:
3779:
3778:
3777:
3774:
3773:
3771:
3769:
3765:
3762:
3760:
3756:
3752:
3748:
3743:
3739:
3733:
3730:
3728:
3725:
3724:
3721:
3717:
3710:
3705:
3703:
3698:
3696:
3691:
3690:
3687:
3673:
3670:
3668:
3665:
3663:
3660:
3658:
3655:
3653:
3650:
3649:
3647:
3645:
3642:
3641:
3638:
3632:
3629:
3627:
3624:
3622:
3619:
3617:
3614:
3612:
3609:
3608:
3606:
3602:
3596:
3593:
3591:
3588:
3586:
3583:
3581:
3578:
3576:
3573:
3571:
3568:
3566:
3563:
3561:
3558:
3556:
3553:
3551:
3548:
3546:
3543:
3541:
3538:
3536:
3533:
3531:
3530:Eurobarometer
3528:
3525:
3523:
3520:
3518:
3515:
3513:
3510:
3508:
3507:Afrobarometer
3505:
3503:
3500:
3499:
3497:
3495:Major surveys
3493:
3487:
3484:
3482:
3479:
3477:
3474:
3472:
3469:
3467:
3464:
3463:
3461:
3457:
3449:
3446:
3444:
3441:
3439:
3436:
3435:
3434:
3431:
3429:
3426:
3424:
3423:Psychometrics
3421:
3419:
3416:
3414:
3411:
3409:
3406:
3404:
3401:
3399:
3396:
3394:
3391:
3390:
3388:
3386:
3385:Data analysis
3382:
3374:
3371:
3369:
3366:
3364:
3361:
3359:
3356:
3354:
3351:
3349:
3346:
3344:
3341:
3339:
3336:
3335:
3334:
3331:
3329:
3326:
3324:
3323:Sampling bias
3321:
3319:
3316:
3314:
3311:
3310:
3308:
3306:
3305:Survey errors
3302:
3294:
3291:
3289:
3286:
3284:
3281:
3279:
3276:
3275:
3274:
3271:
3267:
3264:
3262:
3259:
3257:
3254:
3252:
3249:
3247:
3244:
3242:
3239:
3238:
3237:
3234:
3232:
3229:
3227:
3224:
3222:
3219:
3218:
3216:
3214:
3210:
3202:
3199:
3197:
3194:
3192:
3189:
3187:
3184:
3183:
3182:
3179:
3177:
3176:Questionnaire
3174:
3172:
3169:
3168:
3166:
3164:
3160:
3156:
3148:
3143:
3141:
3136:
3134:
3129:
3128:
3125:
3118:
3115:
3113:
3109:
3106:
3105:
3101:
3097:
3093:
3089:
3085:
3081:
3077:
3073:
3070:(1): 79â106.
3069:
3065:
3060:
3057:
3053:
3051:
3047:
3043:
3041:
3037:
3033:
3030:
3026:
3023:
3018:
3017:
3013:
3008:
3004:
3001:
2997:
2994:
2991:
2987:
2984:
2980:
2977:
2973:
2970:
2966:
2963:
2959:
2956:
2952:
2949:
2945:
2942:
2938:
2935:
2931:
2928:
2924:
2921:
2917:
2914:
2910:
2907:
2903:
2900:
2896:
2893:
2889:
2887:
2883:
2879:
2876:
2873:
2869:
2865:
2862:
2858:
2855:
2851:
2848:
2845:
2841:
2840:
2836:
2828:
2827:
2826:Novaya Gazeta
2822:
2816:
2813:
2808:
2804:
2797:
2794:
2789:
2788:
2787:openDemocracy
2783:
2777:
2774:
2762:
2758:
2752:
2749:
2744:
2740:
2736:
2732:
2728:
2724:
2717:
2714:
2704:on 2010-07-30
2703:
2699:
2698:
2690:
2688:
2684:
2672:
2668:
2664:
2657:
2655:
2651:
2646:
2642:
2637:
2632:
2628:
2624:
2620:
2616:
2612:
2605:
2602:
2597:
2592:
2591:
2582:
2579:
2574:
2570:
2566:
2562:
2558:
2551:
2548:
2544:
2538:
2536:
2532:
2528:
2522:
2519:
2514:
2508:
2504:
2497:
2494:
2479:
2475:
2471:
2466:
2461:
2457:
2453:
2446:
2439:
2436:
2424:
2420:
2416:
2410:
2407:
2395:
2391:
2387:
2381:
2378:
2365:
2361:
2354:
2351:
2346:
2339:
2336:
2330:
2327:
2315:
2311:
2304:
2301:
2290:on 2013-01-31
2289:
2285:
2278:
2275:
2263:
2259:
2255:
2249:
2246:
2241:
2228:
2210:
2203:
2196:
2193:
2182:on 2008-10-11
2181:
2177:
2170:
2167:
2156:on 2008-11-21
2155:
2151:
2144:
2141:
2130:on 2008-10-30
2129:
2125:
2118:
2115:
2111:
2107:
2104:
2099:
2096:
2093:
2089:
2086:
2081:
2078:
2072:
2069:
2063:
2060:
2054:
2051:
2045:
2042:
2036:
2033:
2027:
2024:
2013:on 2012-10-25
2012:
2008:
2002:
1999:
1995:
1991:
1988:
1983:
1980:
1976:
1972:
1969:
1964:
1961:
1956:
1950:
1942:
1936:
1932:
1925:
1922:
1909:
1905:
1904:www.aapor.org
1901:
1895:
1892:
1887:
1881:
1877:
1870:
1867:
1862:
1856:
1848:
1842:
1838:
1831:
1828:
1815:
1811:
1810:
1805:
1799:
1796:
1792:
1788:
1785:
1780:
1777:
1762:
1755:
1748:
1745:
1734:
1730:
1723:
1720:
1716:
1710:
1707:
1703:
1699:
1696:
1691:
1688:
1684:
1680:
1677:
1672:
1669:
1663:
1660:
1655:
1649:
1641:
1635:
1631:
1624:
1621:
1609:
1605:
1599:
1596:
1590:
1587:
1580:
1578:
1574:
1562:
1558:
1552:
1550:
1546:
1542:
1536:
1533:
1529:
1523:
1520:
1515:
1513:9780465090754
1509:
1505:
1504:
1496:
1493:
1481:
1477:
1470:
1468:
1464:
1454:
1452:9781412918084
1448:
1444:
1440:
1436:
1432:
1425:
1423:
1419:
1407:
1403:
1399:
1392:
1389:
1385:
1383:
1379:
1375:
1371:
1370:Pennsylvanian
1367:
1363:
1359:
1358:Pennsylvanian
1355:
1351:
1346:
1342:
1336:
1332:
1328:
1324:
1320:
1316:
1312:
1308:
1301:
1298:
1292:
1287:
1284:
1282:
1279:
1277:
1274:
1272:
1269:
1267:
1264:
1262:
1259:
1257:
1254:
1252:
1249:
1247:
1244:
1242:
1239:
1237:
1234:
1232:
1229:
1227:
1224:
1222:
1219:
1217:
1214:
1212:
1209:
1207:
1204:
1202:
1199:
1197:
1194:
1192:
1189:
1187:
1186:Europe Elects
1184:
1182:
1179:
1177:
1176:Entrance poll
1174:
1172:
1169:
1168:
1163:
1161:
1159:
1155:
1154:Radio Liberty
1151:
1146:
1142:
1141:Levada Center
1134:
1132:
1129:
1124:
1117:
1115:
1113:
1109:
1098:
1089:
1085:
1082:This section
1080:
1077:
1073:
1072:
1066:
1064:
1061:
1060:media framing
1055:
1051:
1049:
1044:
1042:
1038:
1034:
1029:
1028:Stephen Twigg
1025:
1021:
1017:
1013:
1009:
1005:
1000:
997:
992:
989:
988:George Gallup
985:
984:
979:
975:
970:
967:
963:
962:
953:
948:
946:
944:
939:
935:
931:
927:
922:
915:
913:
911:
907:
903:
899:
894:
892:
888:
887:2015 election
884:
883:February 1974
880:
876:
871:
867:
865:
861:
858:would defeat
857:
853:
852:United States
845:
843:
836:
832:
828:
825:
822:
818:
817:
816:
814:
810:
806:
802:
794:
789:
785:
783:co-operation.
781:
780:
779:
773:
770:
766:
765:
764:
761:
759:
755:
751:
742:
738:
734:
732:
727:
725:
718:Coverage bias
717:
715:
712:
703:
698:
695:
692:
689:
685:
684:
683:
676:
673:
668:
667:
666:
664:
659:
655:
651:
648:
644:
640:
636:
631:
629:
625:
620:
616:
614:
605:
603:
601:
595:
593:
589:
584:
582:
578:
574:
570:
566:
565:response bias
559:Response bias
558:
556:
554:
550:
542:
540:
538:
534:
530:
526:
521:
519:
518:poll averages
514:
510:
508:
503:
499:
491:
489:
487:
483:
479:
470:
468:
465:
461:
457:
453:
449:
445:
439:
436:
432:
428:
427:tracking poll
420:
418:
415:
411:
408:
404:
400:
396:
389:
387:
384:
379:
374:
371:
363:
361:
357:
355:
351:
346:
343:
339:
335:
331:
325:
322:
314:
309:
302:
300:
297:
291:
289:
285:
281:
277:
273:
269:
265:
261:
257:
255:
251:
247:
243:
242:Jean Stoetzel
238:
236:
232:
228:
224:
220:
216:
212:
211:George Gallup
208:
204:
199:
197:
194:in 1928, and
193:
189:
185:
181:
177:
173:
169:
168:
162:
160:
156:
152:
148:
145:prior to the
144:
140:
132:
130:
128:
124:
120:
116:
112:
108:
104:
100:
89:
86:
78:
68:
64:
60:
54:
52:
48:
41:
32:
31:
19:
5997:
5985:
5966:
5959:
5871:Econometrics
5821: /
5804:Chemometrics
5781:Epidemiology
5774: /
5747:Applications
5589:ARIMA model
5536:Q-statistic
5485:Stationarity
5381:Multivariate
5324: /
5320: /
5318:Multivariate
5316: /
5256: /
5252: /
5026:Bayes factor
4925:Signed rank
4837:
4811:
4803:
4791:
4486:Completeness
4322:Cohort study
4220:Opinion poll
4219:
4155:Missing data
4142:Study design
4097:Scatter plot
4019:Scatter plot
4012:Spearman's Ï
3974:Grouped data
3604:Associations
3481:Opinion poll
3480:
3459:Applications
3283:Cohort study
3196:Unstructured
3111:
3091:
3067:
3063:
3055:
3045:
3035:
3028:
3021:
3006:
2999:
2989:
2982:
2975:
2968:
2961:
2954:
2947:
2940:
2933:
2926:
2919:
2912:
2905:
2898:
2891:
2881:
2867:
2860:
2853:
2843:
2824:
2815:
2806:
2796:
2785:
2776:
2764:. Retrieved
2760:
2751:
2729:(1): 15â22.
2726:
2722:
2716:
2706:, retrieved
2702:the original
2696:
2675:. Retrieved
2666:
2618:
2614:
2604:
2589:
2581:
2564:
2560:
2550:
2542:
2526:
2521:
2502:
2496:
2485:. Retrieved
2455:
2451:
2438:
2427:. Retrieved
2418:
2409:
2398:. Retrieved
2389:
2380:
2368:. Retrieved
2353:
2344:
2338:
2329:
2318:. Retrieved
2303:
2292:. Retrieved
2288:the original
2277:
2266:. Retrieved
2254:Silver, Nate
2248:
2227:cite journal
2216:. Retrieved
2195:
2184:. Retrieved
2180:the original
2169:
2158:. Retrieved
2154:the original
2143:
2132:. Retrieved
2128:the original
2117:
2098:
2080:
2071:
2062:
2053:
2044:
2035:
2026:
2015:. Retrieved
2011:the original
2001:
1982:
1963:
1930:
1924:
1914:27 September
1912:. Retrieved
1903:
1894:
1875:
1869:
1836:
1830:
1818:. Retrieved
1809:Planet Money
1807:
1798:
1779:
1768:. Retrieved
1759:. ABC News.
1747:
1736:. Retrieved
1732:
1722:
1714:
1709:
1690:
1671:
1662:
1629:
1623:
1612:. Retrieved
1598:
1589:
1565:. Retrieved
1540:
1535:
1527:
1522:
1502:
1495:
1484:. Retrieved
1456:, retrieved
1434:
1410:. Retrieved
1401:
1391:
1381:
1377:
1373:
1369:
1365:
1361:
1357:
1354:Raleigh Star
1353:
1349:
1344:
1340:
1338:
1310:
1306:
1300:
1138:
1125:
1121:
1105:
1092:
1088:adding to it
1083:
1056:
1052:
1047:
1045:
1001:
993:
981:
971:
959:
957:
943:Donald Trump
930:social media
923:
919:
895:
872:
868:
856:Thomas Dewey
849:
840:
809:Labour Party
798:
777:
762:
747:
735:
728:
723:
721:
707:
680:
672:psychometric
660:
656:
652:
632:
621:
617:
609:
596:
585:
562:
546:
536:
532:
528:
524:
522:
515:
511:
495:
477:
474:
440:
431:rolling poll
430:
426:
424:
413:
412:
406:
402:
398:
394:
393:
382:
377:
375:
369:
367:
358:
350:social media
347:
326:
317:
292:
258:
239:
235:Louis Harris
230:
200:
179:
165:
163:
142:
138:
136:
126:
106:
102:
99:opinion poll
98:
96:
81:
72:
44:
5999:WikiProject
5914:Cartography
5876:Jurimetrics
5828:Reliability
5559:Time domain
5538:(LjungâBox)
5460:Time-series
5338:Categorical
5322:Time-series
5314:Categorical
5249:(Bernoulli)
5084:Correlation
5064:Correlation
4860:JarqueâBera
4832:Chi-squared
4594:M-estimator
4547:Asymptotics
4491:Sufficiency
4258:Interaction
4170:Replication
4150:Effect size
4107:Violin plot
4087:Radar chart
4067:Forest plot
4057:Correlogram
4007:Kendall's Ï
3540:Gallup Poll
3343:Frame error
3278:Panel study
3213:Methodology
2969:Straw Votes
2766:10 December
1606:. Cnn.com.
1286:Wiki survey
1108:Gerald Ford
686:conducting
600:decapitated
586:Use of the
254:Marcel DĂ©at
6015:Categories
5866:Demography
5584:ARMA model
5389:Regression
4966:(Friedman)
4927:(Wilcoxon)
4865:Normality
4855:Lilliefors
4802:Student's
4678:Resampling
4552:Robustness
4540:divergence
4530:Efficiency
4468:(monotone)
4463:Likelihood
4380:Population
4213:Stratified
4165:Population
3984:Dependence
3940:Count data
3871:Percentile
3848:Dispersion
3781:Arithmetic
3716:Statistics
3672:Statistics
3662:Psychology
3471:Demography
3448:Structural
3443:Log-linear
3186:Structured
2837:References
2708:2010-07-17
2677:2011-03-09
2487:2017-10-06
2429:2017-10-06
2400:2020-06-03
2320:2008-11-04
2294:2008-11-04
2268:2008-11-04
2218:2009-06-22
2186:2008-11-04
2160:2008-11-04
2134:2008-11-01
2017:2013-02-18
1770:2010-05-17
1738:2013-11-21
1614:2013-02-18
1567:2016-06-05
1486:2017-09-07
1458:2021-05-22
1412:2020-11-15
1271:Straw poll
1246:Referendum
1221:Psephology
1118:Regulation
1095:March 2011
1026:candidate
906:Jim Bolger
805:exit polls
458:candidate
456:Republican
450:candidate
448:Democratic
227:Elmo Roper
219:Republican
207:Alf Landon
149:, showing
6051:Pollsters
5247:Logistic
5014:posterior
4940:Rank sum
4688:Jackknife
4683:Bootstrap
4501:Bootstrap
4436:Parameter
4385:Statistic
4180:Statistic
4092:Run chart
4077:Pie chart
4072:Histogram
4062:Fan chart
4037:Bar chart
3919:L-moments
3806:Geometric
3667:Sociology
3648:Projects
3438:Graphical
3181:Interview
2743:153407445
2645:0954-0962
1949:cite book
1855:cite book
1648:cite book
1356:, or the
1335:144801377
1327:0022-5533
1293:Footnotes
1241:Push poll
1196:Exit poll
1020:safe seat
949:Influence
934:fake news
885:. In the
643:Holocaust
201:Then, in
198:in 1932.
190:in 1924,
186:in 1920,
176:postcards
164:In 1916,
63:talk page
5961:Category
5654:Survival
5531:Johansen
5254:Binomial
5209:Isotonic
4796:(normal)
4441:location
4248:Blocking
4203:Sampling
4082:QâQ plot
4047:Box plot
4029:Graphics
3924:Skewness
3914:Kurtosis
3886:Variance
3816:Heronian
3811:Harmonic
3657:Politics
3652:Business
3644:Category
3094:(2014).
3084:55878738
2671:Archived
2478:Archived
2474:32730475
2423:Archived
2394:Archived
2364:Archived
2314:Archived
2262:Archived
2209:Archived
2106:Archived
2088:Archived
1990:Archived
1971:Archived
1908:Archived
1814:Archived
1787:Archived
1761:Archived
1698:Archived
1679:Archived
1608:Archived
1561:Archived
1480:Archived
1406:Archived
1380:and the
1378:Watchman
1352:and the
1164:See also
996:underdog
938:Facebook
846:Failures
663:attitude
654:survey.
342:Internet
296:New Deal
268:Labour's
153:leading
141:and the
127:pollster
75:May 2023
57:You may
6021:Polling
5987:Commons
5934:Kriging
5819:Process
5776:studies
5635:Wavelet
5468:General
4635:Plug-in
4429:L space
4208:Cluster
3909:Moments
3727:Outline
3153:Social
3009:(1992).
2985:(1949).
2978:(2002).
2971:(1932).
2964:(2004).
2957:(1989).
2950:(1995).
2908:(1939).
2901:(1989).
2870:(1944)
2863:(1988).
2596:243â278
2545:(2000).
1820:30 June
1717:(2007).
1145:Russian
1037:wasting
910:Waitaki
862:in the
452:Al Gore
354:Twitter
133:History
5856:Census
5446:Normal
5394:Manova
5214:Robust
4964:2-way
4956:1-way
4794:-test
4465:
4042:Biplot
3833:Median
3826:Lehmer
3768:Center
3221:Census
3201:Couple
3096:online
3082:
3050:online
3040:online
2943:(1995)
2886:online
2872:online
2761:Meduza
2741:
2643:
2509:
2472:
2370:3 June
1937:
1882:
1843:
1636:
1510:
1449:
1333:
1325:
1024:Labour
768:women.
573:sexism
569:racism
484:, the
480:, the
334:YouGov
282:. The
260:Gallup
119:sample
103:survey
5480:Trend
5009:prior
4951:anova
4840:-test
4814:-test
4806:-test
4713:Power
4658:Pivot
4451:shape
4446:scale
3896:Shape
3876:Range
3821:Heinz
3796:Cubic
3732:Index
3110:from
3108:Polls
3080:S2CID
2739:S2CID
2481:(PDF)
2470:S2CID
2448:(PDF)
2390:Stuff
2212:(PDF)
2205:(PDF)
1764:(PDF)
1757:(PDF)
1733:Slate
1584:2010.
1331:S2CID
829:The "
821:swing
819:Late
758:Obama
338:Zogby
105:or a
65:, or
5713:Test
4913:Sign
4765:Wald
3838:Mode
3776:Mean
2768:2015
2641:ISSN
2507:ISBN
2372:2020
2240:help
1955:link
1935:ISBN
1916:2020
1880:ISBN
1861:link
1841:ISBN
1822:2020
1654:link
1634:ISBN
1508:ISBN
1447:ISBN
1382:Star
1323:ISSN
983:Puck
891:2017
879:1992
877:and
875:1970
647:Nazi
535:and
527:and
478:e.g.
401:and
340:use
336:and
225:and
203:1936
107:poll
4893:BIC
4888:AIC
3072:doi
2731:doi
2631:hdl
2623:doi
2569:doi
2460:doi
1439:doi
1315:doi
1110:'s
1090:.
571:or
429:or
113:of
97:An
6017::
3078:.
3068:14
3066:.
2823:.
2805:.
2784:.
2759:.
2737:.
2727:39
2725:.
2686:^
2669:.
2665:.
2653:^
2639:.
2629:.
2619:44
2617:.
2613:.
2565:40
2563:.
2559:.
2534:^
2476:.
2468:.
2456:31
2454:.
2450:.
2417:.
2388:.
2231::
2229:}}
2225:{{
1951:}}
1947:{{
1906:.
1902:.
1857:}}
1853:{{
1806:.
1731:.
1650:}}
1646:{{
1576:^
1559:.
1548:^
1466:^
1445:,
1433:,
1421:^
1404:.
1400:.
1337:.
1329:.
1321:.
1311:49
1309:.
1160:.
1043:.
972:A
964:,
602:.
583:.
529:Y,
425:A
376:A
368:A
332:,
256:.
129:.
4838:G
4812:F
4804:t
4792:Z
4511:V
4506:U
3708:e
3701:t
3694:v
3146:e
3139:t
3132:v
3086:.
3074::
2874:.
2809:.
2770:.
2745:.
2733::
2680:.
2647:.
2633::
2625::
2598:.
2575:.
2571::
2515:.
2462::
2432:.
2403:.
2374:.
2323:.
2297:.
2271:.
2242:)
2238:(
2221:.
2189:.
2163:.
2137:.
2020:.
1957:)
1943:.
1918:.
1888:.
1863:)
1849:.
1824:.
1773:.
1741:.
1656:)
1642:.
1617:.
1570:.
1516:.
1489:.
1441::
1384:.
1317::
1097:)
1093:(
537:Y
533:X
525:X
476:(
88:)
82:(
77:)
73:(
55:.
20:)
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Additional terms may apply.