322:
Liverpool Model was the first model to develop a 'supply side' designed to explain the underlying trend or 'natural' unemployment rate. Minford said in
November 2015 that running simulations of leaving that EU that "the first thing that comes out is an 8% drop the cost of living on day one." Although this did not occur, Minford blames the volatility the economy since Brexit for making it difficult to find the impact.
896:
P. Minford with Vidya
Mahambare and Eric Nowell, Should Britain leave the EU? An economic analysis of a troubled relationship, Edward Elgar in association with the Institute of Economic Affairs, 2005, p. 254; second edition, same title, December 2015, P. Minford with Sakshi Gupta, Vo P. M. Le, Vidya
321:
Rational expectations work at
Liverpool was used to help craft 1980s Conservative Government policies on inflation (UK monetarism and its link with fiscal policy). Work by Minford's team at Liverpool was also influential on unemployment policy, especially labour market liberalisation, where the
752:
P.Minford, Mai Le, David
Meenagh, Mike Wickens and Yongdeng Xu Testing macro models by indirect inference: a survey for users, forthcoming Open Economies Review; accompanied by a suite of programmes on www.patrickminford.net/Indirect, enabling applied economists to use these
794:
P. Minford 'Labour Market
Equilibrium in an Open Economy', Oxford Economic Papers, November 1983 Supplement on Unemployment, Vol. 35(4), reprinted in The Causes of Unemployment, (eds. C. A. Greenhalgh, P. R. G. Layard and A. J. Oswald), Oxford University Press, 1983, pp.
364:
because he believes that the net economic costs to
Britain of its policies are substantial. He argues that they are in most respects contrary to free market principles and that British citizens had no power to alter them. In 2016, Minford was a notable member of the
276:
was the dominant model of expectations formation and rational expectations was greeted with incredulity. Other work focused on the exchange rate, carrying out model simulations to evaluate the role of floating versus various fixed rate proposals.
775:
P. Minford. Evidence given to
Treasury and Civil Service Committee, Memorandum, in Memoranda on Monetary Policy, HMSO 1980, Oral Evidence given in July 1980 in Committee's Third Report, Vol. II (Minutes of Evidence, HMSO, pp.
662:
284:(DSGE) models. These examine modern controversies including bank regulation, quantitative easing, and monetary policy more generally. Recent monetary policy proposals suggested by this research are the introduction of
951:
272:(see Fair and Taylor) to a full macro model estimated under rational expectations; and was at the forefront of what came to be known as the 'rational expectations revolution'. At this time
804:
P. Minford with D.H. Davies, M.J. Peel and A. Sprague
Unemployment: Cause and Cure. Martin Robertson, Oxford, 1983. 2nd Edition (with above and P. Ashton), Basil Blackwell, Oxford, 1985
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369:
group which supported the referendum campaign for the UK to leave the
European Union. He believes that Brexit could increase GDP by 6.8%, and could reduce prices for British consumers.
735:
P. Minford, Vo Phuong Mai Le, David
Meenagh, and Michael Wickens "How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a New Keynesian DSGE Model using indirect inference",
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model of any economy. This work was concurrent with the early efforts of Fair and Anderson to simulate large nonlinear rational expectations models; it was the first to apply the
325:
Work by Minford’s Liverpool team on exchange rates was influential in the 1990s Exchange Rate Mechanism debate and the 2000s debate over joining the euro. Minford was against
887:
P. Minford 'The EMS – what is wrong with it ?', in The International Monetary System and Economic Development, (eds. C. Drager and L. Spath), Drager Foundation, 1988.
252:
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See also P. Minford and K. Matthews, 1978, "A Note on Terminal Conditions and the Analytic Solution of RE Models", Department of Economics, University of Liverpool.
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https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/251473/17_10_13___FINAL_GUEST_LIST_FOR_PUBLICATION.pdf
785:
P. Minford 'Monetarism, Inflation and Economic Policy', in Is Monetarism Enough ? (ed. A. Seldon), Institute of Economic Affairs, 1980, pp. 1–31.
762:
Vo Phuong Mai Le, David Meenagh and A. Patrick Minford, "Monetarism rides again? US monetary policy in a world of Quantitative Easing", No E2014/22,
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or poll tax as a way of keeping down local government spending to levels chosen by local citizens. In 1988 he was appointed a board member of the
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40:
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More recently, work by Minford and co-authors at Cardiff has focused on indirect inference methods and numerous applied studies of
994:
P. Minford 'How Fair is the Community Charge or Poll Tax ?', Economic Affairs, Vol. 10 No. 5, June/July 1990, pp. 45–46, IEA.
1082:
865:
P. Minford, David Meenagh and Bruce Webb ‘Britain and EMU: Assessing the costs in macroeconomic variability’, The World Economy
869:(3), 2004, 301–358; also available on the Blackwell Synergy online delivery service, accessible via the journal's website at
577:'Minford, Prof. (Anthony) Patrick (Leslie)', Who's Who 2017, A & C Black, an imprint of Bloomsbury Publishing plc, 2017
815:
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R. Fair and J. Taylor, "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models"
419:
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227:
159:
310:. Thatcher subsequently wrote a letter to Minford to congratulate him. Minford was a supporter of the theories of
182:(born 17 May 1943) is a British macroeconomist who is professor of applied economics at Cardiff Business School,
264:
Minford and his research team at the University of Liverpool created the Liverpool Model, the first operational
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458:
373:
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R. Fair, "An analysis of a macroeconometric model with rational expectations in the bond and stock markets",
269:
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639:, (eds. K. Brunner and A. Meltzer), Carnegie-Rochester Series on Public Policy, 1980, Vol. 12. (Now part of
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P. Minford ‘Should we join the Euro? The Chancellor’s 5 tests examined’ IEA Occasional Paper 126, 2002.
423:
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273:
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195:
679:, 69(4), 1979, 539–552.; Paul A. Anderson, "Rational expectations forecasts from nonrational models",
493:
newspaper published by the Conservative Monday Club, October 1989 Conservative Party Conference Issue.
1320:
315:
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P. Minford and K. Matthews "A Rational Expectations Model of the UK under Floating Exchange Rates",
539:"The Economists for Brexit predictions are inconsistent with the basic facts of international trade"
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840:
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P. Minford, "A Rational Expectations Model of the UK Under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rates", in
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952:"The only economic study showing Brexit will benefit UK has been debunked as 'doubly misleading'"
219:
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45:
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but resigned, saying it had a negative effect on job creation. He is on the advisory council of
300:
Minford gained prominence in 1981 when 364 leading economists published a statement criticising
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group which, in opposition to the consensus view of economists, advocated the UK leaving the
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318:(MPS) founded in 1947 by a group of 36 scholars meeting in Mont Pelerin, Switzerland.
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in 1975, where he began to build the so-called Liverpool Model with Kent Matthews.
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468:, a Policy Paper for the Monday Club's Economics Policy Committee, September 1986.
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Memorandum co-authored by Minford to the Select Committee on Social Security
726:, (eds. W. Eltis and P. Sinclair), Oxford University Press, 1981, pp. 120–42
519:
Should Britain leave the EU? An Economic Analysis of a Troubled Relationship
342:
306:
482:, Policy Paper for the Monday Club's Economic Policy Committee, March 1989.
234:, who is an academic and translator of Classical Chinese. He worked at the
1074:
663:"A Note on Terminal Conditions and the Analytic Solutions of RE Models"
304:'s economic policies; Minford replied by defending the Government in
239:
934:"Most economists say Brexit will hurt the economy—but one disagrees"
766:
from Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section
1057:
705:
P. Minford "The Nature and Purpose of UK Macroeconomic Models",
341:
because he thought it was having a bad effect on recovering from
194:
from 1976 to 1997. In 2016, Minford was a notable member of the
1078:
246:'s External Division. He was appointed as economics fellow at
970:"Boris Johnson says May's Brexit plan 'worse than status quo'"
512:
Should Britain join the Euro? The Chancellor's Five Euro Tests
397:
238:
and then as an economic adviser to the Ministry of Finance of
437:
Substitution Effects, Speculation and Exchange Rate Stability
816:"Why we must quit the EU: Cost of living would FALL by 8%"
722:, Vol. 33, July 1981 Supplement, pp. 120–42, reprinted in
202:
and claimed large economic benefits, which did not occur.
44:
Patrick Minford at MSc dinner for economics students at
718:
P. Minford "The Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy",
242:. He then took a position as an economic adviser to
1260:
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908:"'Economists for Brexit' back campaign to leave EU"
461:, October 1985 Conservative Party Conference Issue.
337:. He was also against Britain joining the European
147:
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114:
109:
82:
53:
23:
739:, 35(12), 2078–2104, December 2011; special issue
253:National Institute of Economic and Social Research
590:. Archived from the original on 26 November 2009
741:Frontiers in Structural Macroeconomic Modelling
1371:Commanders of the Order of the British Empire
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487:Conservative Economic Strategies into the 90s
8:
420:Commander of the Order of the British Empire
186:, a position he has held since 1997. He was
1097:
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1044:(Supplement). 29 December 1995. p. 9.
392:Minford was interviewed about the rise of
38:
20:
1346:Academics of the University of Liverpool
1341:Alumni of the London School of Economics
737:Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
530:
230:(MSc; PhD). He is the elder brother of
724:The Money Supply and the Exchange Rate
601:
453:(to Conservative economic theory), in
282:dynamic stochastic general equilibrium
190:Professor of Applied Economics at the
1331:People educated at Winchester College
498:The Supply Side Revolution in Britain
480:Why we need bold tax cuts on 14 March
7:
1356:Academics of Cardiff Business School
588:"Patrick Minford – Curriculum Vitae"
1376:Members of the Freedom Association
378:Merseyside Development Corporation
16:British macroeconomist (born 1943)
14:
1336:Alumni of Balliol College, Oxford
814:Dawar, Anil (10 November 2015).
764:Cardiff Economics Working Papers
406:Minford was also a guest at the
250:in 1974, becoming editor at the
236:Ministry of Overseas Development
1366:21st-century British economists
1361:20th-century British economists
1351:Academics of Cardiff University
95:
175:Anthony Patrick Leslie Minford
1:
681:Journal of Monetary Economics
641:Journal of Monetary Economics
1214:New classical macroeconomics
444:Unemployment: Cause and Cure
408:funeral of Margaret Thatcher
314:, a prominent member of the
142:New classical macroeconomics
637:The State of Macroeconomics
457:newspaper published by the
451:Why there is no alternative
426:for services to economics.
356:, he is a supporter of the
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1262:Real business cycle school
1069:Speech to the Bruges Group
897:Mahambare and Yongdeng Xu.
841:"Where Britain went wrong"
553:"Where Britain went wrong"
228:London School of Economics
214:, Minford was educated at
160:London School of Economics
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608:: CS1 maint: unfit URL (
168:
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1129:Francis Ysidro Edgeworth
696:, 1983, 51, (4), 1169–85
677:American Economic Review
624:European Economic Review
459:Conservative Monday Club
1107:Neoclassical economists
1014:. Retrieved 15 May 2011
339:Exchange Rate Mechanism
270:extended path algorithm
224:Balliol College, Oxford
192:University of Liverpool
155:Balliol College, Oxford
127:University of Liverpool
1119:William Stanley Jevons
720:Oxford Economic Papers
709:, March 1980, pp. 3–26
418:Minford was appointed
400:TV documentary series
360:campaign to leave the
1182:Jean-Michel Grandmont
424:1996 New Year Honours
372:Minford favoured the
367:Economists for Brexit
290:nominal GDP targeting
286:price level targeting
274:adaptive expectations
266:rational expectations
248:Manchester University
196:Economists for Brexit
1010:26 July 2011 at the
316:Mont Pelerin Society
1199:Jean-Pascal Bénassy
1154:Walrasian economics
976:. 11 September 2018
626:, 1980, pp. 189–219
1290:Edward C. Prescott
1058:patrickminford.net
1041:The London Gazette
707:Three Banks Review
505:Markets Not Stakes
473:The Housing Morass
220:Winchester College
216:Horris Hill School
184:Cardiff University
122:Cardiff University
46:Cardiff University
1308:
1307:
1247:Thomas J. Sargent
1227:Axel Leijonhufvud
940:. 24 August 2017.
847:. 3 November 2022
683:, 5, 1979, 67–80.
559:. 3 November 2022
541:. 23 August 2017.
517:Patrick Minford,
510:Patrick Minford,
503:Patrick Minford,
496:Patrick Minford,
485:Patrick Minford,
478:Patrick Minford,
471:Patrick Minford,
466:Economic Strategy
464:Patrick Minford,
449:Patrick Minford,
442:Patrick Minford,
435:Patrick Minford,
403:Tory! Tory! Tory!
345:and keeping down
302:Margaret Thatcher
260:Academic research
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1232:Robert Lucas Jr.
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