Knowledge (XXG)

Swing (Australian politics)

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59:(TPP) result. The concept of "swing" in Australian elections is not simply a function of the difference between the votes of the two leading candidates, as it is in Britain. To know the majority of any seat, and therefore the swing necessary for it to change hands, it is necessary to know the preferences of all the voters, regardless of their first preference votes. It is not uncommon in Australia for candidates who have comfortable leads on the first count to fail to win the seat, because "preference flows" go against them. 1415:
Brock received 80 percent of Labor's fifth-count preferences to achieve a TCP vote of 51.72 percent (a majority of 665 votes) against the Liberal candidate. The by-election saw a rare TPP swing to an incumbent government, and was the first time an opposition had lost a seat at a by-election in South
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since the previous election. Labor retained the seat on a 52.9 percent TCP against Johanson after the distribution of preferences. Unlike previous examples, neither a TPP or TCP swing can be produced, as the 2010 result was between Labor and Liberal rather than Labor and independent with no Liberal
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Swings in Australian parliaments are more commonly associated with the TPP vote. While seats are normally referred to on TPP terms, when one of the remaining two candidates after preference distribution are not from a major party, it is referred to as a TCP, with a different TPP produced. In a TCP
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In seats where the major parties do not come first and second, differing TPP and TCP results are returned. Whilst each seat that preferences down to two major party candidates has the same TPP as TCP, in seats not contested by a major party, such as at some by-elections or some seats in some state
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that Labor would need a uniform TPP swing of 4.9 points to win the 2007 election. Labor in fact gained a swing of 5.6 points, which the pendulum had predicted would result in 21 additional Labor seats under a uniform swing. In fact, Labor gained 23 seats, and not all seats that changed hands were
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saw Brock come first on primary votes, increasing his primary vote by 14.1 points to a total of 37.7 percent and his TCP vote by 6.5 points to a total of 58.2 percent. Despite a statewide swing against Labor at the election, Labor again increased its TPP vote in Frome by 1.8 points up to 49.9%.
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claimed victory on behalf of the party. The result hinged on the performance of Brock against Labor in the competition for second place. Brock polled best in the Port Pirie area, and received enough eliminated candidate preferences to end up ahead of the Labor candidate by 30 votes.
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Thus, Labor defeated the Liberals, with 85 percent of Green and Green-preferenced voters preferencing Labor on the last distribution. Labor's TPP/TCP vote was 51.3 percent, a TPP/TCP majority of 1.3 points, and a TPP/TCP swing of 1.9 points compared with the previous election.
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In this example, the two remaining candidates/parties, one a minor party, were the same after preference distribution at both this election and the previous election. Therefore, differing TPP and TCP votes, margins, and swings resulted.
2185:, when a major party does not contest a by-election, preferences from independents or minor parties that would normally flow to both major parties does not take place, causing asymmetric preference flows. Examples of this are the 68:
elections, only a TCP vote can be produced. At federal elections, it is possible to calculate a TPP/TCP majority for every seat. The swing is therefore what is required for that seat to change hands at the next election.
2164:), who contested the previous election and gained a primary vote of 26.8 percent (and 5.9 percent, and 11.0 percent respectively), did not contest the by-election. On a TPP margin of 12.8 percent from the 95:
takes the TPP majorities of all electorates and arranges them in order, from the seat with the highest government majority to the seat with the highest opposition majority. For example, ahead of the
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system, in each seat the candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated and their preferences are distributed, which is repeated until only two candidates remain. While every seat has a
2609: 2478: 2008: 104: 2403: 2318: 2505: 2348: 2380: 2552: 23:
refers to the extent of change in voter support, typically from one election or opinion poll to another, expressed as a positive or negative
2173: 2169: 2165: 2149: 2104: 1966: 1945: 1882: 1861: 1802: 1421: 1374: 1288: 1244: 1056: 271: 2591: 2178: 1806: 72:
contest between Labor and the Nationals and without a Liberal candidate, this is also considered a TPP, with the Nationals considered a
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candidate. An increase or decrease in margins in these situations cannot be meaningfully interpreted as swings. As explained by the
1434: 126: 96: 81: 2652: 1079: 2425: 2220: 2606: 1987: 1121: 1903: 40: 421:, the Liberals would have retained the seat, and their majority would be said to be 3.4 percentage points (45.3 − 41.9). 2071: 1711: 1316: 1234: 978: 36: 2190: 1417: 982: 2153: 1692: 1577: 1514: 1354: 1295: 1267: 1194: 1014: 925: 777: 631: 461: 418: 397: 367: 162: 99:, Labor needed to win a minimum of 16 additional seats to form a government, and the 16th-weakest government seat ( 2455: 2208: 2577: 1661: 1184: 334: 84:, only 11 of 150 seats returned differing TPP and TCP figures ("non-classic seats"), indicating a considerable 56: 52: 2509: 2482: 2624: 904: 808: 662: 492: 349: 190: 55:(TCP) result, seats where the major parties have come first and second are commonly referred to as having a 2556: 2125: 2081: 1924: 1838: 1772: 1744: 1671: 1470: 1396: 1215: 1100: 1035: 899: 803: 657: 487: 390: 344: 185: 2450: 2326: 2186: 1438: 1320: 425: 109: 77: 48: 44: 2369:
This article reproduces the original Liberal press release, no longer available on the SA Liberal site.
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It can be seen that the Liberal candidate had a primary vote lead over the Labor candidate. In
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and the lower or unicameral houses of the parliaments of all the states and territories except
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A Comment on the Size of the Port Adelaide Swing, Antony Green: ABC Elections 13 February 2012
2525: 1765: 1721: 1491: 829: 683: 513: 208: 2479:"Peace plea as Nationals take revenge on Liberals at polling booth: The Australian 31/1/2009" 2268: 85: 24: 2613: 2537: 1810: 986: 134: 1319:
was closely contested, with the result being uncertain for over a week. Liberal leader
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federal by-elections, with seats returning to TPP form at the next election.
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majorities, because swings in each district are unique and not uniform.
2172:, Labor would have likely retained their TPP margin based on unchanged 2553:"Libs demand recount after shock poll loss: The Australian 26/1/2009" 428:, the votes of all the minor candidates were distributed as follows: 2404:"Frome, a lost moment for the Libs: Independent Weekly 30/1/2009" 47:
in single-member constituencies. Under the full-preference
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5th count: Greens 8,190 votes distributed - final TPP/TCP
2381:"Frome one loss to another: Independent Weekly 30/1/2009" 2625:
2012 Port Adelaide by-election results: Antony Green ABC
2221:"2009 Frome by-election results: State Electoral Office" 2607:
Port Adelaide by-election preference distribution: ECSA
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David Nason, New York correspondent (26 January 2009).
2319:"Liberals confident they'll hold Outback seat of Frome" 2506:"Leader left with pumpkin: The Australian 26/1/2009" 2317:
Emmerson, Russell; Pepper, Chris (18 January 2009).
2209:Non-classic divisions, 2013 federal election: AEC 750:4th count: Family First 1,946 votes distributed 2551:Gavin Lower and David Nason (26 January 2009). 16:Statistic used to analyze Australian elections 604:3rd count: Democrats 1,494 votes distributed 8: 2589:2012 Port Adelaide by-election results: ECSA 2555:. Theaustralian.news.com.au. Archived from 2508:. Theaustralian.news.com.au. Archived from 2481:. Theaustralian.news.com.au. Archived from 1800: 1432: 1326: 976: 124: 103:) had a TPP majority of 4.9 points. Thus, 2269:"Frome by-election goes down to the wire" 1328:Distribution of preferences - 4th count 868: 746: 600: 434:2nd count: Barlow 978 votes distributed 430: 2247:"2009 Frome By-election: ABC Elections" 2201: 2152:, only a TCP could be produced, as the 2533: 2523: 2054: 1816: 1644: 1448: 1332: 1167: 992: 317: 140: 7: 2451:"Shock Frome loss rocks SA Liberals" 2150:2012 Port Adelaide state by-election 2578:Melbourne 2010 election result: AEC 2402:Richardson, Tom (30 January 2009). 1803:Pt Adelaide state by-election, 2012 1797:South Australia, Port Adelaide 2012 29:Australian House of Representatives 2168:, considered a safe margin on the 14: 2449:Pepper, Chris (25 January 2009). 2355:. 21 January 2009. Archived from 2349:"Liberals claim victory in Frome" 1807:Electoral district of Pt Adelaide 2477:Jamie Walker (31 January 2009). 2379:Hendrik Gout (30 January 2009). 2100: 2077: 2004: 1983: 1962: 1941: 1920: 1899: 1878: 1857: 1834: 1740: 1717: 1688: 1667: 1594: 1573: 1552: 1531: 1510: 1487: 1466: 1435:2010 Australian federal election 1392: 1370: 1350: 1263: 1240: 1211: 1190: 1117: 1096: 1075: 1052: 1031: 1010: 921: 895: 825: 799: 773: 703: 679: 653: 627: 557: 533: 509: 483: 457: 363: 340: 267: 246: 225: 204: 181: 158: 127:2004 Australian federal election 2223:. Seo.sa.gov.au. Archived from 922: 896: 826: 800: 774: 704: 680: 654: 628: 558: 534: 510: 484: 458: 424:However, under full-preference 1: 2249:. Abc.net.au. 2 February 2009 979:2009 Frome state by-election 2296:"Frome By-election Results" 983:Electoral district of Frome 973:South Australia, Frome 2009 2674: 2406:. Independentweekly.com.au 2383:. Independentweekly.com.au 2160:and independent candidate 2154:Liberal Party of Australia 419:first-past-the-post voting 78:Liberal–National Coalition 2124: 2070: 2040: 2026: 1828: 1825: 1822: 1819: 1764: 1710: 1660: 1630: 1616: 1460: 1457: 1454: 1451: 1416:Australia. The result in 1344: 1341: 1338: 1335: 1287: 1233: 1183: 1153: 1139: 1004: 1001: 998: 995: 948: 876: 871: 850: 754: 749: 728: 608: 603: 582: 438: 433: 389: 333: 303: 289: 152: 149: 146: 143: 108:those with the slimmest 2072:Two-candidate-preferred 1712:Two-candidate-preferred 1429:Federal, Melbourne 2010 1235:Two-candidate-preferred 76:major party within the 53:two-candidate preferred 2653:Elections in Australia 1317:2009 Frome by-election 121:Federal, Adelaide 2004 105:the pendulum predicted 41:Tasmania's upper house 2353:Poll Bludger (Crikey) 1439:Division of Melbourne 1321:Martin Hamilton-Smith 426:instant-runoff voting 82:2013 federal election 49:instant-runoff voting 2559:on 13 September 2012 2512:on 11 September 2012 131:Division of Adelaide 43:, Australia employs 2426:"District of Frome" 2027:Total formal votes 1813: 1662:Two-party-preferred 1617:Total formal votes 1445: 1422:2010 state election 1329: 1185:Two-party-preferred 1140:Total formal votes 989: 335:Two-party-preferred 290:Total formal votes 137: 57:two-party-preferred 45:preferential voting 2612:2013-04-09 at the 2536:has generic name ( 2359:on 31 January 2009 2329:on 20 January 2009 2227:on 20 January 2009 2174:statewide Newspoll 2158:Family First Party 1801: 1433: 1327: 1126:Peter Fitzpatrick 977: 125: 93:Mackerras pendulum 2275:. 18 January 2009 2146: 2145: 2013:Elizabeth Pistor 1904:Liberal Democrats 1790: 1789: 1413: 1412: 1313: 1312: 966: 965: 867: 866: 745: 744: 599: 598: 415: 414: 2665: 2638: 2633: 2627: 2622: 2616: 2604: 2598: 2586: 2580: 2575: 2569: 2568: 2566: 2564: 2548: 2542: 2541: 2535: 2531: 2529: 2521: 2519: 2517: 2501: 2495: 2494: 2492: 2490: 2474: 2468: 2467: 2465: 2463: 2446: 2440: 2439: 2437: 2435: 2430: 2422: 2416: 2415: 2413: 2411: 2399: 2393: 2392: 2390: 2388: 2376: 2370: 2368: 2366: 2364: 2345: 2339: 2338: 2336: 2334: 2325:. Archived from 2314: 2308: 2307: 2305: 2303: 2291: 2285: 2284: 2282: 2280: 2265: 2259: 2258: 2256: 2254: 2243: 2237: 2236: 2234: 2232: 2217: 2211: 2206: 2170:current pendulum 2009:Democratic Labor 1929:Justin McArthur 1831: 1814: 1561:Georgia Pearson 1463: 1446: 1347: 1330: 1007: 990: 869: 747: 601: 431: 155: 138: 86:two-party system 25:percentage point 2673: 2672: 2668: 2667: 2666: 2664: 2663: 2662: 2643: 2642: 2641: 2634: 2630: 2623: 2619: 2614:Wayback Machine 2605: 2601: 2587: 2583: 2576: 2572: 2562: 2560: 2550: 2549: 2545: 2532: 2522: 2515: 2513: 2503: 2502: 2498: 2488: 2486: 2485:on 6 March 2009 2476: 2475: 2471: 2461: 2459: 2448: 2447: 2443: 2433: 2431: 2428: 2424: 2423: 2419: 2409: 2407: 2401: 2400: 2396: 2386: 2384: 2378: 2377: 2373: 2362: 2360: 2347: 2346: 2342: 2332: 2330: 2316: 2315: 2311: 2301: 2299: 2294:Green, Antony. 2293: 2292: 2288: 2278: 2276: 2267: 2266: 2262: 2252: 2250: 2245: 2244: 2240: 2230: 2228: 2219: 2218: 2214: 2207: 2203: 2199: 2191:2002 Cunningham 2041:Informal votes 1908:Stephen Humble 1811:South Australia 1799: 1631:Informal votes 1582:Penelope Green 1431: 1154:Informal votes 1084:Neville Wilson 987:South Australia 975: 712:Peter G Robins 566:Richard Pascoe 542:Peter G Robins 304:Informal votes 255:Richard Pascoe 234:Peter G Robins 135:South Australia 123: 118: 65: 17: 12: 11: 5: 2671: 2669: 2661: 2660: 2655: 2645: 2644: 2640: 2639: 2628: 2617: 2599: 2594:2012-07-28 at 2581: 2570: 2543: 2496: 2469: 2456:The Advertiser 2441: 2417: 2394: 2371: 2340: 2323:The Advertiser 2309: 2286: 2260: 2238: 2212: 2200: 2198: 2195: 2144: 2143: 2141: 2138: 2131: 2123: 2120: 2119: 2116: 2113: 2110: 2109:Gary Johanson 2107: 2102: 2099: 2098: 2095: 2092: 2089: 2084: 2079: 2076: 2075: 2068: 2067: 2064: 2061: 2058: 2052: 2051: 2048: 2045: 2042: 2038: 2037: 2034: 2031: 2028: 2024: 2023: 2020: 2017: 2014: 2011: 2006: 2003: 2002: 1999: 1996: 1993: 1990: 1985: 1982: 1981: 1978: 1975: 1972: 1969: 1964: 1961: 1960: 1957: 1954: 1951: 1948: 1943: 1940: 1939: 1936: 1933: 1930: 1927: 1922: 1919: 1918: 1915: 1912: 1909: 1906: 1901: 1898: 1897: 1894: 1891: 1888: 1885: 1880: 1877: 1876: 1873: 1870: 1867: 1866:Gary Johanson 1864: 1859: 1856: 1855: 1852: 1849: 1846: 1841: 1836: 1833: 1832: 1827: 1824: 1821: 1818: 1798: 1795: 1788: 1787: 1785: 1782: 1775: 1763: 1760: 1759: 1756: 1753: 1750: 1747: 1742: 1739: 1738: 1735: 1732: 1729: 1724: 1719: 1716: 1715: 1708: 1707: 1704: 1701: 1698: 1695: 1690: 1687: 1686: 1683: 1680: 1677: 1674: 1669: 1666: 1665: 1658: 1657: 1654: 1651: 1648: 1642: 1641: 1638: 1635: 1632: 1628: 1627: 1624: 1621: 1618: 1614: 1613: 1610: 1607: 1604: 1603:David Collyer 1601: 1596: 1593: 1592: 1589: 1586: 1583: 1580: 1575: 1572: 1571: 1568: 1565: 1562: 1559: 1554: 1551: 1550: 1547: 1544: 1541: 1538: 1533: 1530: 1529: 1526: 1523: 1520: 1517: 1512: 1509: 1508: 1505: 1502: 1499: 1494: 1489: 1486: 1485: 1482: 1479: 1476: 1473: 1468: 1465: 1464: 1459: 1456: 1453: 1450: 1430: 1427: 1411: 1410: 1408: 1405: 1402: 1399: 1394: 1391: 1390: 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157: 156: 151: 148: 145: 142: 122: 119: 117: 114: 64: 63:TPP/TCP swings 61: 15: 13: 10: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 2670: 2659: 2656: 2654: 2651: 2650: 2648: 2637: 2632: 2629: 2626: 2621: 2618: 2615: 2611: 2608: 2603: 2600: 2597: 2596:archive.today 2593: 2590: 2585: 2582: 2579: 2574: 2571: 2558: 2554: 2547: 2544: 2539: 2534:|author= 2527: 2511: 2507: 2500: 2497: 2484: 2480: 2473: 2470: 2458: 2457: 2452: 2445: 2442: 2427: 2421: 2418: 2405: 2398: 2395: 2382: 2375: 2372: 2358: 2354: 2350: 2344: 2341: 2328: 2324: 2320: 2313: 2310: 2297: 2290: 2287: 2274: 2270: 2264: 2261: 2248: 2242: 2239: 2226: 2222: 2216: 2213: 2210: 2205: 2202: 2196: 2194: 2192: 2188: 2184: 2180: 2175: 2171: 2167: 2166:2010 election 2163: 2159: 2155: 2151: 2142: 2139: 2137: 2136: 2132: 2130: 2127: 2122: 2121: 2117: 2114: 2111: 2108: 2106: 2103: 2101: 2096: 2093: 2090: 2088: 2085: 2083: 2080: 2078: 2073: 2069: 2065: 2062: 2059: 2057: 2053: 2049: 2046: 2043: 2039: 2035: 2032: 2029: 2025: 2021: 2018: 2015: 2012: 2010: 2007: 2005: 2000: 1997: 1994: 1992:Grant Carlin 1991: 1989: 1986: 1984: 1979: 1976: 1973: 1970: 1968: 1965: 1963: 1958: 1955: 1952: 1950:Colin Thomas 1949: 1947: 1944: 1942: 1937: 1934: 1931: 1928: 1926: 1923: 1921: 1916: 1913: 1910: 1907: 1905: 1902: 1900: 1895: 1892: 1889: 1886: 1884: 1881: 1879: 1874: 1871: 1868: 1865: 1863: 1860: 1858: 1853: 1850: 1847: 1845: 1842: 1840: 1837: 1835: 1815: 1812: 1808: 1804: 1796: 1794: 1786: 1783: 1781: 1780: 1776: 1774: 1770: 1767: 1762: 1761: 1757: 1754: 1751: 1749:Cath Bowtell 1748: 1746: 1743: 1741: 1736: 1733: 1730: 1728: 1725: 1723: 1720: 1718: 1713: 1709: 1705: 1702: 1699: 1696: 1694: 1691: 1689: 1684: 1681: 1678: 1676:Cath Bowtell 1675: 1673: 1670: 1668: 1663: 1659: 1655: 1652: 1649: 1647: 1643: 1639: 1636: 1633: 1629: 1625: 1622: 1619: 1615: 1611: 1608: 1605: 1602: 1600: 1597: 1595: 1590: 1587: 1584: 1581: 1579: 1576: 1574: 1569: 1566: 1563: 1560: 1558: 1555: 1553: 1548: 1545: 1542: 1539: 1537: 1534: 1532: 1527: 1524: 1521: 1518: 1516: 1513: 1511: 1506: 1503: 1500: 1498: 1495: 1493: 1490: 1488: 1483: 1480: 1477: 1475:Cath Bowtell 1474: 1472: 1469: 1467: 1447: 1444: 1440: 1436: 1428: 1426: 1423: 1419: 1409: 1406: 1403: 1400: 1398: 1395: 1393: 1389: 1386: 1383: 1381: 1378: 1376: 1373: 1371: 1367: 1364: 1361: 1359:Terry Boylan 1358: 1356: 1353: 1351: 1331: 1325: 1322: 1318: 1309: 1306: 1304: 1303: 1299: 1297: 1293: 1290: 1285: 1284: 1280: 1277: 1274: 1272:Terry Boylan 1271: 1269: 1266: 1264: 1259: 1256: 1253: 1251: 1248: 1246: 1243: 1241: 1236: 1232: 1228: 1225: 1222: 1219: 1217: 1214: 1212: 1207: 1204: 1201: 1199:Terry Boylan 1198: 1196: 1193: 1191: 1186: 1182: 1178: 1175: 1172: 1170: 1166: 1162: 1159: 1156: 1152: 1148: 1145: 1142: 1138: 1134: 1131: 1128: 1125: 1123: 1120: 1118: 1113: 1110: 1107: 1104: 1102: 1099: 1097: 1092: 1089: 1086: 1083: 1081: 1078: 1076: 1071: 1068: 1065: 1063: 1060: 1058: 1055: 1053: 1048: 1045: 1042: 1039: 1037: 1034: 1032: 1027: 1024: 1021: 1019:Terry Boylan 1018: 1016: 1013: 1011: 991: 988: 984: 980: 972: 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Retrieved 2225:the original 2215: 2204: 2183:Antony Green 2147: 2134: 2133: 2128: 1791: 1778: 1777: 1768: 1697:Simon Olsen 1557:Family First 1540:Joel Murray 1519:Simon Olsen 1414: 1314: 1301: 1300: 1291: 1105:Joy O'Brien 967: 949: 883:Added votes 851: 834:Jake Bugden 761:Added votes 729: 708:Family First 688:Jake Bugden 615:Added votes 583: 538:Family First 518:Jake Bugden 445:Added votes 423: 416: 403: 402: 393: 230:Family First 213:Jake Bugden 90: 73: 70: 66: 20: 18: 2105:Independent 2087:Susan Close 1971:Bob Briton 1967:Independent 1946:Independent 1887:Sue Lawrie 1883:Independent 1862:Independent 1844:Susan Close 1401:John Rohde 1380:Geoff Brock 1375:Independent 1289:Independent 1250:Geoff Brock 1245:Independent 1220:John Rohde 1062:Geoff Brock 1057:Independent 1040:John Rohde 931:Trish Worth 783:Trish Worth 637:Trish Worth 467:Trish Worth 373:Trish Worth 272:Independent 168:Trish Worth 2658:Psephology 2647:Categories 2462:25 January 2363:25 January 2333:25 January 2302:25 January 2279:25 January 2273:ABC Online 2197:References 1988:One Nation 1820:Candidate 1727:Adam Bandt 1497:Adam Bandt 1452:Candidate 1336:Candidate 1122:One Nation 996:Candidate 905:Kate Ellis 880:Candidate 809:Kate Ellis 758:Candidate 663:Kate Ellis 612:Candidate 493:Kate Ellis 442:Candidate 350:Kate Ellis 191:Kate Ellis 144:Candidate 27:. For the 2187:2008 Mayo 2162:Max James 1599:Democrats 1536:Sex Party 562:Democrats 251:Democrats 110:Coalition 80:. At the 19:The term 2610:Archived 2592:Archived 2526:cite web 1443:Victoria 1080:National 116:Examples 101:McMillan 74:de facto 35:and the 33:Tasmania 2563:28 July 2516:28 July 2489:28 July 2434:28 July 2410:28 July 2387:28 July 2253:28 July 2231:28 July 2148:At the 2091:10,277 2074:result 2060:20,915 2056:Turnout 2030:19,410 1758:–10.75 1752:39,268 1737:+10.75 1731:50,059 1714:result 1700:23,854 1693:Liberal 1679:65,473 1664:result 1650:92,683 1646:Turnout 1620:89,327 1578:Secular 1522:18,760 1515:Liberal 1507:+13.37 1501:32,308 1484:–11.42 1478:34,022 1420:at the 1355:Liberal 1296:Liberal 1268:Liberal 1260:+51.72 1237:result 1195:Liberal 1187:result 1173:19,882 1169:Turnout 1143:19,309 1072:+23.60 1049:–14.93 1015:Liberal 959:85,076 941:41,405 926:Liberal 915:43.671 861:85,076 819:36,743 793:40,143 778:Liberal 739:85,076 673:36,366 647:39,045 632:Liberal 593:85,076 503:35,872 477:38,702 462:Liberal 398:Liberal 377:41,405 368:Liberal 354:43,671 337:result 323:88,996 319:Turnout 293:85,076 195:35,666 172:38,530 163:Liberal 2118:+47.1 2112:9,133 2066:–10.4 2044:1,505 1932:1,096 1925:Greens 1911:1,415 1896:+15.1 1890:2,938 1875:+24.3 1869:4,717 1848:8,218 1823:Votes 1817:Party 1784:+10.75 1766:Greens 1755:43.96 1734:56.04 1722:Greens 1706:–1.03 1703:26.70 1685:+1.03 1682:73.30 1656:–1.41 1653:90.09 1640:+0.82 1634:3,356 1626:–0.82 1623:96.38 1612:–0.76 1591:+0.69 1570:+0.55 1564:1,389 1549:+1.83 1543:1,633 1528:–2.49 1525:21.00 1504:36.17 1492:Greens 1481:38.09 1455:Votes 1449:Party 1407:28.65 1404:5,532 1387:28.81 1384:5,562 1365:42.54 1362:8,215 1339:Votes 1333:Party 1281:–5.13 1278:48.28 1275:9,322 1257:51.72 1254:9,987 1229:+1.74 1226:48.33 1223:9,333 1208:–1.74 1205:51.67 1202:9,976 1179:–4.44 1176:89.79 1163:–0.21 1149:+0.21 1146:97.12 1135:+0.69 1114:+0.06 1101:Greens 1093:+6.56 1087:1,267 1069:23.60 1066:4,557 1046:26.11 1043:5,041 1028:–8.86 1025:39.24 1022:7,576 999:Votes 993:Party 954:8,190 935:1,262 909:6,928 889:Votes 877:Party 856:1,946 843:8,190 830:Greens 787:1,098 767:Votes 755:Party 734:1,494 721:1,946 697:7,719 684:Greens 621:Votes 609:Party 575:1,494 551:1,849 527:7,159 514:Greens 451:Votes 439:Party 383:–1.95 380:48.67 360:+1.95 357:51.33 329:–1.09 326:93.62 313:–0.66 307:3,920 299:+0.66 296:95.60 285:+1.15 264:–9.30 258:1,355 243:+2.06 237:1,753 222:+2.02 216:6,794 209:Greens 201:+5.50 198:41.92 178:+0.82 175:45.29 147:Votes 141:Party 2429:(PDF) 2156:(and 2135:Swing 2126:Labor 2115:47.1 2097:–9.8 2094:52.9 2082:Labor 2063:82.8 2050:+3.8 2036:–3.8 2033:92.8 2022:+0.8 2001:+1.4 1980:+1.5 1959:+1.6 1938:–0.6 1917:+7.3 1893:15.1 1872:24.3 1854:–7.6 1851:42.3 1839:Labor 1779:Swing 1773:Labor 1771:from 1745:Labor 1672:Labor 1637:3.62 1609:0.67 1588:0.69 1567:1.55 1546:1.83 1471:Labor 1418:Frome 1397:Labor 1302:Swing 1294:from 1216:Labor 1160:2.88 1132:0.69 1111:3.80 1090:6.56 1036:Labor 950:Total 944:48.7 938:15.4 918:51.3 912:84.6 900:Labor 852:Total 840:24.2 822:43.2 816:19.4 804:Labor 796:47.2 790:56.4 730:Total 694:37.5 676:42.8 670:33.1 658:Labor 650:45.9 644:23.0 584:Total 572:14.2 524:37.3 506:42.2 500:21.1 488:Labor 480:45.5 474:17.6 409:+1.95 404:Swing 396:from 391:Labor 345:Labor 310:4.40 282:1.15 261:1.59 240:2.06 219:7.99 186:Labor 21:swing 2565:2010 2538:help 2518:2010 2491:2010 2464:2009 2436:2010 2412:2010 2389:2010 2365:2009 2335:2009 2304:2009 2281:2009 2255:2010 2233:2010 2189:and 2129:hold 2047:7.2 2019:0.8 2016:151 1998:1.4 1995:269 1977:1.5 1974:292 1956:1.6 1953:314 1935:5.6 1914:7.3 1769:gain 1606:602 1585:613 1315:The 1292:gain 1157:573 1129:134 1108:734 962:1.3 846:9.6 837:471 813:377 724:2.3 718:6.5 700:9.1 691:560 667:494 641:343 588:978 578:1.8 569:139 554:2.2 548:9.8 530:8.4 521:365 497:206 471:172 394:gain 279:978 91:The 2181:'s 2179:ABC 2140:N/A 1307:N/A 715:97 545:96 37:ACT 2649:: 2530:: 2528:}} 2524:{{ 2453:. 2351:. 2321:. 2271:. 1830:±% 1826:% 1809:, 1805:: 1462:±% 1458:% 1441:, 1437:: 1346:±% 1342:% 1006:±% 1002:% 985:, 981:: 892:% 886:% 770:% 764:% 624:% 618:% 454:% 448:% 154:±% 150:% 133:, 129:: 88:. 2567:. 2540:) 2520:. 2493:. 2466:. 2438:. 2414:. 2391:. 2367:. 2337:. 2306:. 2283:. 2257:. 2235:.

Index

percentage point
Australian House of Representatives
Tasmania
ACT
Tasmania's upper house
preferential voting
instant-runoff voting
two-candidate preferred
two-party-preferred
Liberal–National Coalition
2013 federal election
two-party system
Mackerras pendulum
2007 election
McMillan
the pendulum predicted
Coalition
2004 Australian federal election
Division of Adelaide
South Australia
Liberal
Trish Worth
Labor
Kate Ellis
Greens
Family First
Democrats
Independent
Turnout
Two-party-preferred

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