166:
573:
505:
136:
384:
20:
261:
598:
431:
214:
364:
695:
283:
315:
533:
478:
656:
234:
192:
452:
621:
342:
42:
According to the curse, the second terms of U.S. presidents have usually been plagued by a major scandal, policy inertia, some sort of catastrophe, or other problems. There have been twenty-one U.S. presidents who have served a second term, each of whom has faced difficulties attributed to the curse.
1101:
My view, then, is that the idea of the second-term curse is sloppy as an analytical concept. There is certainly a historical tendency for presidents who earn a second term to become less popular — but some of this reflects reversion to the mean. And some recent presidents have overcome the supposed
57:
might have put a curse on any president who seeks a second term. This legend notwithstanding, several presidents who served prior to this, including
Washington and Roosevelt themselves, were plagued by problems in their second term more serious than in their first.
85:
cited several presidents who had successful second terms, and wrote that "second-term problems resulted more often from the failure to adjust to changed circumstances and unanticipated challenges". Conversely, a 2013 report in
1248:
917:
1362:
673:
496:
1514:
839:
1326:
306:
1456:
1552:
1051:
1487:
713:
1088:
92:
has said that the existence of the second-term curse is supported by data. The report stated that each of the eleven second terms served from the beginning of the
165:
1238:
1557:
77:, did find that approval ratings were lower on average during second terms, but he also found a variety of other reasons to explain those ratings, such as
969:
66:
1352:
1179:
927:
1423:
891:
1547:
1139:
730:
466:
1290:
112:; presidents who are elected for a second term are more likely to have had a good first term, making their second term look worse by comparison.
572:
1510:
1007:
1210:
829:
504:
1316:
135:
686:
1446:
355:
1479:
1041:
274:
93:
24:
647:
1392:
81:, and he concluded that "the idea of the second-term curse is sloppy as an analytical concept". In addition, political writer
36:
1080:
383:
1046:
669:
97:
19:
643:
100:
were less economically prosperous than their respective president's first term, save for the second terms of Truman,
78:
597:
260:
997:
717:
150:
1169:
959:
1357:
886:
213:
82:
1415:
881:
611:
430:
1129:
457:
416:
205:
44:
1280:
363:
694:
1206:
510:
420:
403:
61:
Whether this perceived tendency is real is a subject of dispute: for example, political statistician
785:
Was serving his first full term after finishing out the term of his predecessor, who died in office.
1285:
745:
183:
1202:
834:
369:
301:
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556:
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409:
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109:
54:
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725:
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320:
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282:
171:
1542:
1243:
561:
483:
436:
266:
179:
70:
721:
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389:
314:
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532:
1536:
1134:
750:
678:
603:
578:
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333:
296:
252:
197:
101:
88:
1384:
1174:
700:
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626:
219:
105:
74:
1076:
634:
546:
398:
329:
62:
491:
477:
155:
1102:
curse and actually become more popular on average during their second terms.
964:
655:
233:
191:
620:
248:
49:
451:
53:
second term limit by running for third and fourth terms, the ghost of
1353:"The 10 worst second-term moments for presidents since Richard Nixon"
402:
Unpopularity stemming from his refusal to accept reservations to the
341:
1511:"What Happened With Merrick Garland In 2016 And Why It Matters Now"
591:
The U.S. economy was not as strong as it was during his first term
526:
The U.S. economy was not as strong as it was during his first term
471:
The U.S. economy was not as strong as it was during his first term
424:
The U.S. economy was not as strong as it was during his first term
377:
The U.S. economy was not as strong as it was during his first term
1239:"The curse of the second term hovers over hapless President Obama"
565:
The U.S. economy was not as strong as it was during his first term
444:
The U.S. economy was not as strong as it was during his first term
18:
1447:"While Obama Skulks Around, Hillary Rides a Crest of Popularity"
1419:
1317:"Watch Out, Obama: Second Terms Have Been Tainted By Scandal"
16:
Purported curse regarding the second term of U.S. presidents
304:
efforts to uphold the rights of
Southern African-Americans
108:. However, these findings could be due to the effect of
830:"Triumphant Obama Faces New Foe in 'Second-Term Curse'"
1310:
1308:
43:
The legend behind the second-term curse is that after
1274:
1272:
1270:
1268:
1266:
918:"5 Reasons Why Obama and Romney Will Get No Mandate"
227:
Congressional rejection of his anti-slavery efforts
119:
1042:"Obama's second term: What history says to expect"
911:
909:
769:Grover Cleveland's two terms are non-consecutive.
714:United States federal government shutdown of 2013
406:, leading to the Senate's rejection of the treaty
1385:"Like Predecessors, Bush Has Second-Term Blues"
794:Became the first president to resign the office
1232:
1230:
1228:
39:to be less successful than their first terms.
35:is the perceived tendency of second terms of
27:, an event which happened in his second term.
8:
781:
779:
777:
775:
1346:
1344:
1124:
1122:
1120:
1118:
1116:
1114:
1112:
1110:
996:Duberstein, Kenneth M. (October 29, 2005).
1553:Political terminology of the United States
1480:"Avoiding the Dreaded 'Second-Term Curse'"
958:Susan Page; Judy Keen (October 31, 2005).
953:
951:
949:
947:
945:
1168:Akhil Reed Amar (January–February 2013).
991:
989:
987:
823:
821:
819:
817:
815:
813:
811:
1416:"Obama's second-term curse? Not so fast"
1071:
1069:
1040:Lehrman, Robert A. (January 19, 2013).
807:
762:
1459:from the original on December 20, 2016
1426:from the original on December 22, 2017
1329:from the original on September 3, 2019
1213:from the original on December 20, 2016
1182:from the original on November 25, 2016
1142:from the original on December 20, 2016
1081:"Is There Really a Second-Term Curse?"
1054:from the original on February 25, 2021
894:from the original on December 20, 2016
1490:from the original on October 16, 2017
1281:"Fending Off the 'Second-Term Curse'"
1237:Cornwell, Rupert (November 2, 2013).
1035:
1033:
1031:
1029:
1027:
1025:
1010:from the original on November 3, 2012
875:
873:
871:
869:
867:
865:
863:
861:
859:
857:
842:from the original on November 8, 2012
7:
1201:Henningsen, Vic (January 21, 2013).
1163:
1161:
1159:
1157:
880:Barone, Michael (January 20, 2013).
408:Failure to get the U.S. to join the
159:Fatigue due to political infighting
154:Controversy over his signing of the
1395:from the original on March 14, 2016
972:from the original on March 14, 2021
960:"Bush sets out to salvage 2nd term"
729:Failed Supreme Court nomination of
497:relief of General Douglas MacArthur
1558:United States presidential history
1517:from the original on April 2, 2019
1365:from the original on July 26, 2014
1315:Hickey, Walt (February 18, 2013).
1293:from the original on June 10, 2015
1279:Broder, David (January 20, 2005).
1251:from the original on June 11, 2020
916:Fournier, Ron (November 6, 2012).
251:which laid the groundwork for the
14:
1478:Harwood, John (January 6, 2016).
1445:Pianin, Eric (October 22, 2014).
1091:from the original on June 8, 2013
828:Clymer, Adam (November 7, 2012).
670:Failure of Social Security reform
94:Theodore Roosevelt administration
998:"Breaking the second-term curse"
693:
654:
619:
596:
571:
531:
503:
476:
450:
429:
382:
362:
340:
313:
281:
259:
232:
212:
190:
164:
134:
25:Assassination of Abraham Lincoln
1548:Presidency of the United States
1351:Hughes, Brian (July 19, 2014).
1203:"Henningsen: Second Term Curse"
1414:Kurtz, Howard (May 14, 2013).
1:
1509:Elving, Ron (June 29, 2018).
1047:The Christian Science Monitor
687:Financial crisis of 2007–2008
560:Loss of Wisconsin primary to
98:George W. Bush administration
67:presidential approval ratings
1574:
589:and subsequent resignation
79:regression toward the mean
718:IRS targeting controversy
151:French Revolutionary Wars
122:
328:Personal struggles with
1389:The Wall Street Journal
1358:The Washington Examiner
887:The Wall Street Journal
882:"Unlucky (Lame) Ducks?"
116:Presidents of the curse
726:affair and guilty plea
28:
495:Controversy over his
458:Franklin D. Roosevelt
417:Espionage Act of 1917
415:Controversy over the
206:Burning of Washington
149:Ramifications of the
45:Franklin D. Roosevelt
22:
1391:. October 29, 2005.
1207:Vermont Public Radio
1138:. January 26, 2013.
555:Urban riots and the
511:Dwight D. Eisenhower
421:Sedition Act of 1918
404:Treaty of Versailles
129:Attributed event(s)
1286:The Washington Post
1130:"Second-term blues"
930:on November 8, 2012
746:Curse of Tippecanoe
184:Embargo Act of 1807
23:A depiction of the
1484:The New York Times
1085:The New York Times
835:The New York Times
648:Pardon controversy
612:Iran–Contra affair
467:court-packing plan
370:Theodore Roosevelt
96:to the end of the
65:, after analyzing
29:
1003:Los Angeles Times
737:
736:
674:Hurricane Katrina
587:Watergate scandal
557:Kerner Commission
539:Lyndon B. Johnson
523:1960 U-2 incident
413:Suffered a stroke
410:League of Nations
356:His assassination
307:Numerous scandals
275:His assassination
142:George Washington
110:survivorship bias
55:George Washington
33:second-term curse
1565:
1527:
1526:
1524:
1522:
1506:
1500:
1499:
1497:
1495:
1475:
1469:
1468:
1466:
1464:
1452:The Fiscal Times
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1375:
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1322:Business Insider
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1198:
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1191:
1189:
1187:
1170:"Second Chances"
1165:
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1151:
1149:
1147:
1126:
1105:
1104:
1098:
1096:
1079:(May 16, 2013).
1073:
1064:
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1061:
1059:
1037:
1020:
1019:
1017:
1015:
993:
982:
981:
979:
977:
955:
940:
939:
937:
935:
926:. Archived from
923:National Journal
913:
904:
903:
901:
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877:
852:
851:
849:
847:
825:
795:
792:
786:
783:
770:
767:
697:
658:
640:Lewinsky scandal
623:
600:
575:
550:Reaction to the
535:
519:Overcoat scandal
507:
480:
465:Failure of the "
454:
433:
397:U.S. entry into
386:
366:
348:William McKinley
344:
321:Grover Cleveland
317:
293:1873–1877
289:Ulysses S. Grant
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263:
236:
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172:Thomas Jefferson
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1244:The Independent
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784:
773:
768:
764:
759:
742:
731:Merrick Garland
728:
720:
716:
712:
685:
676:
672:
646:
642:and subsequent
638:
614:
590:
566:
564:
562:Eugene McCarthy
559:
554:
549:
525:
521:
494:
484:Harry S. Truman
470:
445:
437:Calvin Coolidge
423:
414:
412:
407:
401:
332:
305:
300:Failure of his
299:
267:Abraham Lincoln
182:
180:Burr conspiracy
158:
153:
118:
71:Harry S. Truman
37:U.S. presidents
17:
12:
11:
5:
1571:
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1501:
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1153:
1106:
1065:
1021:
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771:
761:
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748:
741:
738:
735:
734:
722:David Petraeus
709:Edward Snowden
706:
703:
698:
690:
689:
677:Indictment of
667:
664:
662:George W. Bush
659:
651:
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632:
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390:Woodrow Wilson
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302:Reconstruction
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247:Events in the
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83:Michael Barone
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3:
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1141:
1137:
1136:
1135:The Economist
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791:
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772:
766:
763:
756:
752:
751:Six-year itch
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732:
727:
723:
719:
715:
710:
707:
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699:
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688:
684:
680:
679:Scooter Libby
675:
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604:Ronald Reagan
602:
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588:
585:
582:
580:
579:Richard Nixon
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563:
558:
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552:Great Society
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334:Panic of 1893
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297:Panic of 1873
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253:Panic of 1837
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198:James Madison
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102:Ronald Reagan
99:
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89:The Economist
84:
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68:
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34:
26:
21:
1521:December 24,
1519:. Retrieved
1504:
1492:. Retrieved
1483:
1473:
1461:. Retrieved
1450:
1440:
1430:December 19,
1428:. Retrieved
1409:
1397:. Retrieved
1388:
1379:
1369:December 18,
1367:. Retrieved
1356:
1333:September 3,
1331:. Retrieved
1320:
1295:. Retrieved
1284:
1253:. Retrieved
1242:
1215:. Retrieved
1196:
1184:. Retrieved
1175:The Atlantic
1173:
1144:. Retrieved
1133:
1100:
1093:. Retrieved
1084:
1077:Silver, Nate
1056:. Retrieved
1045:
1012:. Retrieved
1001:
974:. Retrieved
963:
932:. Retrieved
928:the original
921:
896:. Retrieved
885:
844:. Retrieved
833:
790:
765:
701:Barack Obama
683:Plame affair
627:Bill Clinton
220:James Monroe
126:Second term
106:Bill Clinton
87:
75:Barack Obama
60:
48:
41:
32:
30:
1494:December 5,
1463:December 5,
1399:November 9,
1297:November 9,
1255:December 5,
1217:December 6,
1186:December 6,
1146:December 6,
1058:December 6,
1014:November 9,
934:November 9,
898:December 5,
846:November 9,
681:during the
644:impeachment
635:Paula Jones
547:Vietnam War
399:World War I
330:oral cancer
63:Nate Silver
1537:Categories
802:References
705:2013–2017
666:2005–2009
631:1997–2001
608:1985–1989
583:1973–1974
543:1965–1969
515:1957–1961
492:Korean War
488:1949–1953
462:1937–1941
441:1925–1929
394:1917–1921
374:1905–1909
325:1893–1897
244:1833–1837
224:1821–1825
202:1813–1817
176:1805–1809
156:Jay Treaty
146:1793–1797
123:President
47:broke the
965:USA Today
1515:Archived
1488:Archived
1457:Archived
1424:Archived
1393:Archived
1363:Archived
1327:Archived
1291:Archived
1249:Archived
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1180:Archived
1140:Archived
1089:Archived
1052:Archived
1008:Archived
976:July 23,
970:Archived
892:Archived
840:Archived
740:See also
419:and the
249:Bank War
73:through
50:de facto
1513:. NPR.
1095:May 19,
637:lawsuit
1543:Curses
104:, and
757:Notes
711:leaks
352:1901
271:1865
1523:2021
1496:2016
1465:2016
1432:2017
1401:2012
1371:2016
1335:2019
1299:2012
1257:2016
1219:2016
1188:2016
1148:2016
1097:2013
1060:2016
1016:2012
978:2017
936:2012
900:2016
848:2012
69:for
31:The
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