Societal collapse - Knowledge (XXG)

2362:"What is collapse? 'Collapse' is a broad term that can cover many kinds of processes. It means different things to different people. Some see collapse as a thing that could happen only to societies organized at the most complex level. To them, the notion of tribal societies or village horticulturalists collapsing will seem odd. Others view collapse in terms of economic disintegration, of which the predicted end of industrial society is the ultimate expression. Still others question the very utility of the concept, pointing out that art styles and literary traditions often survive political decentralization. Collapse, as viewed in the present work, is a political process. It may, and often does, have consequences in such areas as economics, art, and literature, but it is fundamentally a matter of the sociopolitical sphere. A society has collapsed when it displays a rapid, significant loss of an established level of sociopolitical complexity. The term 'established level' is important. To qualify as an instance of collapse a society must have been at, or developing toward, a level of complexity for more than one or two generations. The demise of the Carolingian Empire, thus, is not a case of collapse - merely an unsuccessful attempt at empire building. The collapse, in turn, must be rapid - taking no more than a few decades - and must entail a substantial loss of sociopolitical structure. Losses that are less severe, or take longer to occur, are to be considered cases of weakness and decline. The fall of the Roman Empire is, in the West, the most widely known instance of collapse, the one which comes most readily to popular thought." (Pages 4-5) 895:. Roman troops first contracted the disease in the East before they returned home. Striking a virgin population, the Antonine Plague had dreadful mortality rates; between one third to half of the population, 60 to 70 million people, perished. Roman cities suffered from a combination of overcrowding, poor hygiene, and unhealthy diets. They quickly became epicenters. Soon, the disease reached as far as Gaul and mauled Roman defenses along the Rhine. The ranks of the previously formidable Roman army had to be filled with freed slaves, German mercenaries, criminals, and gladiators. That ultimately failed to prevent the Germanic tribes from crossing the Rhine. On the civilian side, the Antonine Plague created drastic shortages of businessmen, which disrupted trade, and farmers, which led to a food crisis. An economic depression followed and government revenue fell. Some accused Emperor 1704:

A society starts out fairly equal. Its population grows and the cost of labor drops. A wealthy upper class emerges, and life for the working class deteriorates. As inequality grows, a society becomes more unstable with the lower-class being miserable and the upper-class entangled in infighting. Exacerbating social turbulence eventually leads to collapse. The shorter cycle lasts for about 50 years and consists of two generations, one peaceful and one turbulent. Looking at US history, for example, Turchin identified times of serious sociopolitical instability in 1870, 1920, and 1970. He announced in 2010 that he had predicted that in 2020, the US would witness a period of unrest at least on the same level as 1970 because the first cycle coincides with the turbulent part of the second in around 2020. He also warned that the US was not the only Western nation under strain.

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Black Death had a single source of spreading into Europe. Research into the past on this topic is further complicated by politics and the passage of time. It is difficult to distinguish between natural epidemics and biological warfare, both of which are common throughout human history. Biological weapons are economical because they turn an enemy casualty into a delivery system and so were favored in armed conflicts of the past. Furthermore, more soldiers died of disease than in combat until recently. In any case, by the 1340s, Black Death killed 200 million people. The widening trade routes in the Late Middle Ages helped the plague spread rapidly. It took the European population more than two centuries to return to its level before the pandemic. Consequently, it destabilized most of society and likely undermined feudalism and the authority of the Church.

1720: 864: 1273:), which led to social strife, and chronic inflation, which caused incomes to fall and threatened the fiscal health of the state. In particular, an excess in especially young adult male population predictably led to social unrest and violence, as the third and higher-order parity sons had trouble realizing their economic desires and became more open to extreme ideas and actions. Adults in their 20s are especially prone to radicalization. Most historical periods of social unrest lacking in external triggers, such as natural calamities, and most genocides can be readily explained as a result of a built-up youth bulge. As those trends intensified, they jeopardized the social fabric, which facilitated the decline. 1329:

flexible. Rand and Cohen believe that explains why people continue with self-destructive behaviors when logical reasoning would have alerted them of the dangers ahead. People switch from the second to the first mode of thinking after the introduction of an invention that dramatically increases the standards of living. Rand and Cohen pointed to the recent examples of the antibiotic overuse leading to resistant bacteria and failure to save for retirement. Tainter noted that according to behavioral economics, the human decision-making process tends to be more irrational than rational and that as the rate of innovation declines, as measured by the number of inventions relative to the amount of money spent on

1290: 3945:, describes quite plausibly how the plague was transmitted by the Mongols by throwing diseased cadavers with catapults into the besieged city, and how ships transporting Genovese soldiers, fleas and rats fleeing from there brought it to the Mediterranean ports. Given the highly complex epidemiology of plague, this interpretation of the Black Death (which might have killed > 25 million people in the following years throughout Europe) as stemming from a specific and localized origin of the Black Death remains controversial. Similarly, it remains doubtful whether the effect of throwing infected cadavers could have been the sole cause of the outburst of an epidemic in the besieged city. 1264:. Societies as diverse as those of England and France during the Roman, medieval, and early modern eras, of Egypt during Greco-Roman and Ottoman rule, and of various dynasties in China all showed similar patterns of political instability and violence becoming considerably more common after times of relative peace, prosperity, and sustained population growth. Quantitatively, periods of unrest included many times more events of instability per decade and occurred when the population was declining, rather than increasing. Pre-industrial agrarian societies typically faced instability after one or two centuries of stability. However, a population approaching its 386: 38: 62: 791:, Egypt itself went into steep decline. The collapse of all other societies in the Eastern Mediterranean disrupted established trade routes and caused widespread economic depression. Government workers became underpaid, which resulted in the first labor strike in recorded history and undermined royal authority. There was also political infighting between different factions of government. Bad harvest from the reduced flooding at the Nile led to a major famine. Food prices rose to eight times their normal values and occasionally even reached twenty-four times. Runaway 1277: 1661:(1961, 1979). He argued that societal disintegration involves the metamorphosis of social instruments, which were set up to meet actual needs, into institutions, which serve their own interest at the expense of social needs. However, in the 1950s, Toynbee's approach to history, his style of civilizational analysis, started to face skepticism from mainstream historians who thought it put an undue emphasis on the divine, which led to his academic reputation declining. For a time, however, Toynbee's 531:(in modern-day Germany) added fuel to the fire. Soon, it escalated to a huge conflict that involved all major European powers and devastated much of Germany. When the war had ended, some regions of the empire had seen their populations drop by as much as 70%. However, not all societies faced crises during this period. Tropical countries with high carrying capacities and trading economies did not suffer much because the changing climate did not induce an economic depression in those places. 443:, where it could stay for years and gradually get oxidized into sulfate aerosols. Being highly reflective, sulfate aerosols reduce the incident sunlight and cool the Earth's surface. By drilling into glaciers and ice sheets, scientists can access the archives of the history of atmospheric composition. A team of multidisciplinary researchers led by Joseph McConnell of the Desert Research Institute in Reno, Nevada deduced that a volcanic eruption occurred in 43 BC, a year after the 694: 581: 6331: 1448:, a large-scale society in which resources are being depleted at an exponential rate, but nothing is done to rectify the problem because the ruling elite are unwilling or unable to adapt to those resources' reduced availability. In this type of society, rulers tend to oppose any solutions that diverge from their present course of action but favor intensification and commit an increasing number of resources to their present plans, projects, and social institutions. 1417:, has fallen in the past century from 100:1 to the range of 10:1 with clear evidence that the natural depletion curves all are downward decay curves. An EROI of more than ~3 then is what appears necessary to provide the energy for socially important tasks, such as maintaining government, legal and financial institutions, a transportation infrastructure, manufacturing, building construction and maintenance, and the lifestyles of all members of a given society. 1342: 428:. Historians and archeologists believe that severe and long-lasting drought and a decline in trade with Egypt and Mesopotamia caused the collapse. Evidence for earthquakes has also been discovered. Sea level changes are also found at two possible seaport sites along the Makran coast which are now inland. Earthquakes may have contributed to decline of several sites by direct shaking damage or by changes in sea level or in water supply. 1646:(meeting the challenges of the decaying civilization with new insight, as a prophet). He argues that those who transcend during a period of social decay give birth to a new Church with new and stronger spiritual insights around which a subsequent civilization may begin to form after the old has died. Toynbee's use of the word 'church' refers to the collective spiritual bond of a common worship, or the same unity found in some kind of 496: 6406: 6343: 872:

higher concentrations of garbage. Poor sanitation, a lack of medical knowledge, superstitions, and sometimes a combination of disasters exacerbated the problem. The journalist Michael Rosenwald wrote that "history shows that past pandemics have reshaped societies in profound ways. Hundreds of millions of people have died. Empires have fallen. Governments have cracked. Generations have been annihilated."

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refused to sell at such low prices. In any case, the act was abolished by the Lincoln Parliament in 1316. Soon, people from commoners to nobles were finding themselves short of food. Many resorted to begging, crime, and eating animals they otherwise would not eat. People in northern England had to deal with raids from Scotland. There were even reports of

180:, and misfortune. However, complete extinction of a culture is not inevitable, and in some cases, the new societies that arise from the ashes of the old one are evidently its offspring, despite a dramatic reduction in sophistication. Moreover, the influence of a collapsed society, such as the Western Roman Empire, may linger on long after its death. 1409:(EROI), which measures the amount of surplus energy a society gets from using energy to obtain energy. Energy shortages drive up prices and as such provide an incentive to explore and extract previously uneconomical sources, which may still be plentiful, but more energy would be required, and the EROI is then not as high as initially thought. 962:

Civilization, the Byzantine Empire, and what later became known as Medieval Europe. With so many people dead, the supply of workers, many of whom were slaves, was critically short. Landowners had no choice but to lend pieces of land to serfs to work the land in exchange for military protection and other privileges. That sowed the seeds of

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and large-scale human crises in pre-industrial times. Short-term crises may be caused by social problems, but climate change was the ultimate cause of major crises, starting with economic depressions. Moreover, since agriculture is highly dependent on climate, any changes to the regional climate from the optimum can induce crop failures.

946:, the same one that would later bring the Black Death, the single deadliest pandemic in human history, but how many actually died from it remains uncertain. Current estimates put the figure between thirty and fifty million people, a significant portion of the human population at that time. The Plague arguably cemented the fate of Rome. 1564:" (that forces the majority to obey without meriting obedience), which fails to recognize new ways of thinking. He argues that creative minorities deteriorate from a worship of their "former self", by which they become prideful, and they fail in adequately addressing the next challenge that they face. Similarly, the German philosopher 1002:

adopted. Many former serfs, now free from feudal obligations, relocated to the cities and changed profession to crafts and trades. The more successful ones became the new middle class. Trade flourished as demands for a myriad of consumer goods rose. Society became wealthier and could afford to fund the arts and the sciences.

814:. A ruthless but efficient ruler, he raised a disciplined and professional army and introduced a significant number of reforms, such as unifying the language and creating a single currency and system of measurement. In addition, he funded dam constructions and began building the first segment of what was to become the 1014:

agriculture in the Old World. As such, they had immune systems that were ill-equipped to handle the diseases to which their counterparts in Eurasia had become resistant. When the Europeans arrived in the Americas, in short order, the indigenous populations of the Americas found themselves facing smallpox,

726:. The invasions transformed a settled society to a nomadic one. In China, for example, a combination of war, famine, and pestilence during the Mongol conquests halved the population, a decline of around 55 million people. The Mongols also displaced large numbers of people and created power vacuums. The 1597:

repays injustice with resentment, fear with hate, and violence with violence when it executes its acts of secession. Yet the whole movement ends in positive acts of creation - and this on the part of all the actors in the tragedy of disintegration. The Dominant Minority creates a universal state, the

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For Toynbee, a civilization is born when a "creative minority" successfully responds to the challenges posed by its physical, social, and political environment. However, the fixation on the old methods of the "creative minority" leads it to eventually cease to be creative and degenerate into merely a

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temperature reconstruction suggests that historical periods of social unrest, societal collapse, and population crash and significant climate change often occurred simultaneously. A team of researchers from Mainland China and Hong Kong were able to establish a causal connection between climate change

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has yet to be deciphered, the causes of its de-urbanization remain a mystery, but there is some evidence pointing to natural disasters. Signs of a gradual decline began to emerge in 1900 BC, and two centuries later, most of the cities had been abandoned. Archeological evidence suggests an increase in

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Archeologists have identified signs of a megadrought which lasted for a millennium between 5,000 and 4,000 years ago in Africa and Asia. The drying of the Green Sahara not only turned it into a desert but also disrupted the monsoon seasons in South and Southeast Asia and caused flooding in East Asia,

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The social scientist Luke Kemp analyzed dozens of civilizations, which he defined as "a society with agriculture, multiple cities, military dominance in its geographical region and a continuous political structure," from 3000 BC to 600 AD and calculated that the average life span of a civilization is

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has not taken place at any point. Eisenstadt also points out that a clear differentiation between total or partial decline and "possibilities of regeneration" is crucial for the preventive purpose of the study of societal collapse. This frame of reference often rejects the term collapse and critiques

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Safa Motesharrei, Jorge Rivas, Eugenia Kalnay, Ghassem R. Asrar, Antonio J. Busalacchi, Robert F. Cahalan, Mark A. Cane, Rita R. Colwell, Kuishuang Feng, Rachel S. Franklin, Klaus Hubacek, Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm, Takemasa Miyoshi, Matthias Ruth, Roald Sagdeev, Adel Shirmohammadi, Jagadish Shukla,

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In the Middle Ages, a famous although controversial example is offered by the siege of Caffa (now Feodossia in Ukraine/Crimea), a Genovese outpost on the Black Sea coast, by the Mongols. In 1346, the attacking army experienced an epidemic of bubonic plague. The Italian chronicler Gabriele de' Mussi,

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However, Turchin's model can only paint the broader picture and cannot pinpoint how bad things can get and what precisely triggers a collapse. The mathematician Safa Motesharrei also applied predator-prey models to human society, with the upper class and the lower class being the two different types

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were related to political instability. He found recurring cycles of unrest in historical societies such as Ancient Egypt, China, and Russia. He specifically identified two cycles, one long and one short. The long one, what he calls the "secular cycle," lasts for approximately two to three centuries.

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Developing an integrated theory of societal collapse that takes into account the complexity of human societies remains an open problem. Researchers currently have very little ability to identify internal structures of large distributed systems like human societies. Genuine structural collapse seems,

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As humans spread around the globe, human societies flourish and become more dependent on trade, and because urbanization means that people leave sparsely-populated rural areas for densely-populated neighborhoods, infectious diseases spread much more easily. Outbreaks are frequent, even in the modern

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With labor in short supply, workers' bargaining power increased dramatically. Various inventions that reduced the cost of labor, saved time, and raised productivity, such as the three-field crop rotation system, the iron plow, the use of manure to fertilize the soil, and the water pumps, were widely

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He argues that as civilizations decay, they form an "Internal Proletariat" and an "External Proletariat." The Internal proletariat is held in subjugation by the dominant minority inside the civilization, and grows bitter; the external proletariat exists outside the civilization in poverty and chaos

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have even warned of an incoming "antibiotic apocalypse." The World Health Organization warned in 2019 that the spread of vaccine scepticism has been accompanied by the resurrection of long-conquered diseases like measles. This lead the WHO to name the antivaccination movement one of the world's top

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Encounters between European explorers and Native Americans exposed the latter to a variety of diseases of extraordinary virulence. Having migrated from Northeastern Asia 15,000 years ago, Native Americans had not been introduced to the plethora of contagious diseases that emerged after the rise of

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Historically, the dawn of agriculture led to the rise of contagious diseases. Compared to their hunting-gathering counterparts, agrarian societies tended to be sedentary, have higher population densities, be in frequent contact with livestock, and be more exposed to contaminated water supplies and

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The mathematician Safa Motesharrei and his collaborators showed that the use of non-renewable resources such as fossil fuels allows populations to grow to one order of magnitude larger than they would using renewable resources alone and as such is able to postpone societal collapse. However, when

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in the formerly-polytheistic society, as Christians won public admiration for their good works. Ultimately the Roman army, the Roman cities, the size of the empire and its trade routes, which were required for Roman power and influence to exist, facilitated the spread of the disease. The Antonine

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In the early fourteenth century AD, Britain suffered repeated rounds of crop failures from unusually heavy rainfall and flooding. Much livestock either starved or drowned. Food prices skyrocketed, and King Edward II attempted to rectify the situation by imposing price controls, but vendors simply

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argued that a civilization in its "winter" would see a disinclination for abstract thinking. The psychologists David Rand and Jonathan Cohen theorized that people switch between two broad modes of thinking. The first is fast and automatic but rigid, and the second is slow and analytical but more

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and that soldiers who were transported from there brought the plague to Mediterranean ports. However, that account of the origin of the Black Death in Europe remains controversial, though plausible, because of the complex epidemiology of the plague. Modern epidemiologists do not believe that the

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might be contributory factors of collapse, but studies of past societies seem to suggest that those factors did not cause the collapse alone. Significant inequity and exposed corruption may combine with lack of loyalty to established political institutions and result in an oppressed lower class

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Energy has played a crucial role throughout human history. Energy is linked to the birth, growth, and decline of each and every society. Energy surplus is required for the division of labor and the growth of cities. Massive energy surplus is needed for widespread wealth and cultural amenities.

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population. The extent of the outbreak is disputed, but some sources claim that it killed about 50% of coastal Aboriginal populations on the east coast. There is an ongoing historical debate concerning two rival and irreconcilable theories about how the disease first entered the continent (see

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on the Ides of March (15 March) in 44 BC, which left a power vacuum and led to bloody civil wars. According to historical accounts, it was also a period of poor weather, crop failure, widespread famine, and disease. Analyses of tree rings and cave stalagmites from different parts of the globe

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alone, including the emperor, and Peru in the 1530s, which aided the European conquerors. A combination of Spanish military attacks and evolutionarily novel diseases finished off the Aztec Empire in the sixteenth century. It is commonly believed that the death of as much as 90% or 95% of the

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and captured Roman-held territories in the Caucasus, the Levant, Egypt, and elsewhere in North Africa. Before the Justinian Plague, the Mediterranean world had been commercially and culturally stable. After the Plague, it fractured into a trio of civilizations battling for power: the Islamic

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The social scientist Luke Kemp indicated that alternative sources of energy, such as solar panels, have a low EROI because they have low energy density, meaning they require a lot of land, and require substantial amounts of rare earth metals to produce. Hall and colleagues reached the same

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Anthropologists, historians, and sociologists have proposed a variety of explanations for the collapse of civilizations involving causative factors such as environmental degradation, depletion of resources, costs of rising complexity, invasion, disease, decay of social cohesion, growing

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recorded that there was a lack of flooding in Egypt, which also faced famine and pestilence. Rome's interest in Egypt as a source of food intensified, and the aforementioned problems and civil unrest weakened Egypt's ability to resist. Egypt came under Roman rule after

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During the Roman Empire, citizen employment was vastly being replaced by slave labor. Slaves were replacing many of the jobs citizens were doing. Slaves were receiving apprenticeships and education and were even learning to replace the jobs of skilled craftsman.

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erupted between the Trịnh family in the north and the Nguyễn family in the south. More Cham provinces were seized by the Nguyễn warlords. Finally, Nguyễn Ánh emerged victorious and declared himself Emperor of Vietnam (changing the name from Annam) with the title

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With those facts in mind, collapse can simply be understood as a loss of the energy needed to maintain social complexity. Collapse is thus the sudden loss of social complexity, stratification, internal and external communication and exchange, and productivity.

1385:, Jared Diamond proposes five interconnected causes of collapse that may reinforce each other: non-sustainable exploitation of resources, climate changes, diminishing support from friendly societies, hostile neighbors, and inappropriate attitudes for change. 786:

shipped large amounts of grain to the disintegrating Hittite Empire. Thus, there had been a food shortage in Anatolia but not the Nile Valley. However, that soon changed. Although Egypt managed to deliver a decisive and final defeat to the Sea Peoples at the

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of "predators" and natural resources being the "prey." He found that either extreme inequality or resource depletion facilitates a collapse. However, a collapse is irreversible only if a society experiences both at the same time, as they "fuel each other."

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collapse finally comes, it is much more dramatic. Tainter warned that in the modern world, if the supply of fossil fuels were somehow cut off, shortages of clean water and food would ensue, and millions would die in a few weeks in the worse-case scenario.

1361:, is extraordinary modern economic productivity. Tainter argues that exceptional productivity is actually more the sign of hidden weakness because of a society's dependence on it and its potential to undermine its own basis for success by not being 595:, began threatening China's frontiers, but by the first century BC, they had been completely expelled. They then turned their attention westward and displaced various other tribes in Eastern and Central Europe, which led to a cascade of events. 1268:

alone is not enough to trigger general decline if the people remained united and the ruling class strong. Other factors had to be involved, such as having more aspirants for positions of the elite than the society could realistically support

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There would be no surplus if EROI approaches 1:1. Hall showed that the real cutoff is well above that and estimated that 3:1 to sustain the essential overhead energy costs of a modern society. The EROI of the most preferred energy source,

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explored the rise and fall of 28 civilizations and came to the conclusion that civilizations generally collapsed mainly by internal factors, factors of their own making, but external pressures also played a role. He theorized that all

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are often touted as a prime example of collapse, in reality this reorganization was simply the result of the removal of the political system of Divine Kingship largely in the eastern lowlands as many cities in the western highlands of

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conclusion. There is no on-site pollution, but the EROI of renewable energy sources may be too low for them to be considered a viable alternative to fossil fuels, which continue to provide the majority of the energy used by humans.

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Paying for the dole required high levels of government spending, exacerbating the Roman debt and also producing inflation. With slavery replacing most labor, tax revenues also plummeted, further exacerbating the government's debt.

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in many cases, the only plausible explanation supporting the idea that such structures exist. However, until they can be concretely identified, scientific inquiry appears limited to the construction of scientific narratives, using

940:, the epidemic originated in China and Northeastern India and reached the Eastern Roman Empire via trade routes terminating in the Mediterranean. Modern scholarship has deduced that the epidemic was caused by the bacterium 730:

went into decline and was replaced by the Thais, who were pushed southward by the Mongols. The Vietnamese, who succeeded in defeating the Mongols, also turned their attention to the south and by 1471 began to subjugate the

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Tainter considers that social complexity is a recent and comparatively-anomalous occurrence, requiring constant support. He asserts that collapse is best understood by grasping four axioms. In his own words (p. 194):

1675:, who viewed human history as broadly the history of civilizations and posited that the world after the end of the Cold War will be multipolar and one of competing major civilizations, which are divided by "fault lines." 1510:

Tainter argues that those models, though superficially useful, cannot severally or jointly account for all instances of societal collapse. Often, they are seen as interconnected occurrences that reinforce one another.

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A statistical analysis of empires by complex systems specialist Samuel Arbesman suggests that collapse is generally a random event and does not depend on age. That is analogous to what evolutionary biologists call the

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in 1928, has resulted in the saving of the lives of hundreds of millions of people suffering from bacterial infections. However, there is no guarantee that would continue because bacteria are becoming increasingly

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In the sixth century AD, while the Western Roman Empire had already succumbed to attacks by the Germanic tribes, the Eastern Roman Empire stood its ground. In fact, a peace treaty with the Persians allowed Emperor

1485:, a society that has grown to be so large and include so many complex social institutions that it is inherently unstable and prone to collapse. This type of society has been seen with particular frequency among 1075:, but in the developed world and increasingly also in the developing world, people are less likely to fall victim to infectious diseases than ever before. For instance, the advent of antibiotics, starting with 1071:

era, but medical advances have been able to alleviate their impacts. In fact, the human population grew tremendously in the twentieth century, as did the population of farm animals, from which diseases could

3013:("The data show that the modern period is very different to what occurred in the past. The often quoted Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age are real phenomena, but small compared to the recent changes.") 3436:

Weber, N. (2012). The destruction and assimilation of Campā (1832-35) as seen from Cam sources. Journal of Southeast Asian Studies, 43(1), 158-180. Retrieved 3 June 2020, from www.jstor.org/stable/41490300

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and began his campaign of territorial expansion. The Mongols' highly flexible and mobile cavalry enabled them to conquer their enemies with efficiency and swiftness. In the brutal pillaging that followed

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Haak, Wolfgang; Lazaridis, Iosif; Patterson, Nick; Rohland, Nadin; Mallick, Swapan; Llamas, Bastien; Brandt, Guido; Nordenfelt, Susanne; Harney, Eadaoin; Stewardson, Kristin; Fu, Qiaomei (11 June 2015).

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Several key features of human societal collapse can be related to population dynamics. For example, the native population of Cusco, Peru at the time of the Spanish conquest was stressed by an imbalanced

577:(EEFs) from the European gene pool, significantly altering the cultural and genetic landscape of Europe. EEF mtDNA however remained frequent, suggesting admixture between WSH males and EEF females. 841:

in New Zealand erupting in 1314. The Great Famine was, however, only one of the calamities striking Europe that century, as the Hundred Years' War and Black Death would soon follow. (Also see the

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noticed that the equations used to model the populations of predators and preys can also be used to describe the ontogeny of human societies. He specifically examined how social factors such as

228:(1988), a seminal and founding work of the academic discipline on societal collapse. He elaborates that 'collapse' is a "broad term," but in the sense of societal collapse, he views it as "a 1067:). Smallpox continued to be a deadly disease and killed an estimated 300 million people in the twentieth century alone, but a vaccine, the first of any kind, had been available since 1796. 1308:

Historical theories have evolved from being purely social and ethical, to ideological and ethnocentric, and finally to multidisciplinary studies. They have become much more sophisticated.

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To pay off the enormous debt, the Romans began to devalue the currency and produce more coinage. Eventually, this overwhelmed the Roman Empire and partially contributed to its collapse.

932:, achieved a number of important victories against the Ostrogoths and the Vandals. However, their hope of keeping the Western Empire was dashed by the arrival of what became known as the 631:

out of their territories and made those groups press their way into parts of France, Spain, Italy, and even as far south as North Africa. The city of Rome itself came under attack by the

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As taxes fell, so did government revenue. To compensate for this economic slowdown and mitigate the high levels of poverty, the Roman government implemented a form of welfare called the

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More generally, recent research pointed to climate change as a key player in the decline and fall of historical societies in China, the Middle East, Europe, and the Americas. In fact,

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Bos, Kirsten I.; Harkins, Kelly M.; Herbig, Alexander; Coscolla, Mireia; Weber, Nico; Comas, Iñaki; Forrest, Stephen A.; Bryant, Josephine M.; Harris, Simon R. (23 October 2014).

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Homer-Dixon asserted that a declining EROI was one of the reasons that the Roman Empire declined and fell. The historian Joseph Tainter made the same claim about the Maya Empire.

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nations, in which all social organizations are arms of the government or ruling party, such that the government must either stifle association wholesale (encouraging dissent and

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Because human societies are complex systems, common factors may contribute to their decline that are economical, environmental, demographic, social and cultural, and they may

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The Diplomat – The Diplomat is a current-affairs magazine for the Asia-Pacific, with news and analysis on politics, security, business, technology and life across the region

799:(~1187–1064 BC), Egypt devolved from a major power in the Mediterranean to a deeply divided and weakened state, which later came to be ruled by the Libyans and the Nubians. 503:

devastated much of Europe and was one of the many political upheavals during the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century, which is causally linked to the Little Ice Age.

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Virtually all civilizations have suffered such a fate, regardless of their size or complexity. Most never recovered, such as the Western and Eastern Roman Empires, the

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First the Dominant Minority attempts to hold by force - against all right and reason - a position of inherited privilege which it has ceased to merit; and then the

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Global average temperatures show that the Little Ice Age was not a distinct global time period but the end of a long temperature decline, which preceded the recent

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the notion that cultures simply vanish when the political structures that organize labor for large archaeologically prominent projects do. For example, while the

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being exceedingly rare. Episodes of social instability track the cooling with a time lap of up to 15 years, and many developed into armed conflicts, such as the

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The complete breakdown of economic, cultural, and social institutions with ecological relationships is perhaps the most common feature of collapse. In his book

674:'s populous and flourishing civilization collapsed after it had exhausted its resources in internal fighting and suffering devastation from the invasion of the 3373: 912:

Plague is considered by some historians as a useful starting point for understanding the decline and fall of the Western Roman Empire. It was followed by the

5127: 2061:, two-thirds of the almost 700,000 dead were victims of smallpox, dysentery, typhoid, malaria, and pneumonia, collectively referred to as the "Third Army." 2650: 1368:

As a population grows and technology makes it easier to exploit depleting resources, the environment's diminishing returns are hidden from view. Societal

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is then potentially threatened if it develops beyond what is actually sustainable, and a disorderly reorganization were to follow. The scissors model of

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and build up to the point that could overwhelm any mechanisms that would otherwise maintain stability. Unexpected and abrupt changes, which experts call

1440:(1990), too many scholars offer facile explanations of societal collapse by assuming one or more of the following three models in the face of collapse: 1058:

Similar events took place in Oceania and Madagascar. Smallpox was externally brought to Australia. The first recorded outbreak, in 1789, devastated the

271:

maintained this system of divine kingship into the 16th century. The Maya continue to maintain cultural and linguistic continuity into the present day.

1289: 607:(modern-day France). Attila's Huns were clashing with the Roman Empire, which had already been divided into two-halves for ease of administration: the 232:

process." He further narrows societal collapse as a rapid process (within "few decades") of "substantial loss of sociopolitical structure," giving the

4993: 3977: 1376:

collapse, in which the population grows without limit but not resources, is the idea of great opposing environmental forces cutting into each other.

6233: 6171: 2279: 511:

in Europe, which was a period of inclement weather, crop failure, economic hardship, extreme intergroup violence, and high mortality because of the

4442: 3342: 757: 4906: 4260:

R. Alan Covey, Geoff Childs, Rebecca Kippen Source: Current Anthropology, Vol. 52, No. 3 (June 2011), pp. 335-360: The University of Chicago Press

4132: 400:

which prevented successful harvests and the development of complex culture. It coincided with and may have caused the decline and the fall of the

1221:

Since slaves do not pay taxes and were replacing most jobs from citizens, this reduced the revenue the state could accrue from their citizens.

818:

to defend his realm against northern nomads. Nevertheless, internal feuds and rebellions made his empire fall apart after his death in 210 B.C.

149:

by rival civilizations. A collapsed society may revert to a more primitive state, be absorbed into a stronger society, or completely disappear.

484:

The Mongol conquests corresponded to a period of cooling in the Northern Hemisphere between the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries, when the

5312: 4821: 4717: 4023: 3703: 3482: 3457: 2942: 2585: 647:. A combination of internal strife, economic weakness, and relentless invasions by the Germanic peoples pushed the Western Roman Empire into 573:

by most contemporary linguists, archaeologists, and geneticists. The expansion of WSHs resulted in the virtual disappearance of the Y-DNA of

1466:). This type of society, based almost exclusively on acquisition (such as pillaging or exploitation), cannot be sustained indefinitely. The 5250: 879:, which included coughing, fever, (blackish) diarrhea, swollen throat, and thirst, modern experts identified the probable culprits of the 1034:, and others appeared. Most of these tropical diseases were traced to Africa. Smallpox ravaged Mexico in the 1520s and killed 150,000 in 5805: 5245: 5144: 4202: 448:

provided complementary data. The Northern Hemisphere got drier, but the Southern Hemisphere became wetter. Indeed, the Greek historian

6205: 4899: 4751: 1134: 777: 2624: 488:

was giving way to the Little Ice Age, which caused ecological stress. In Europe, the cooling climate did not directly facilitate the

5225: 4880: 4671: 4424: 4161: 3515: 1955: 1204: 849:

complement historical records and show that the summers of 1314–1316 were some of the wettest on record over a period of 700 years.

224: 385: 1224:

This high level of unemployment also led to high levels of poverty, which reduced demand for businesses relying on slave labor.

5790: 5486: 3867: 3762: 3008: 648: 616: 233: 45: 1185: 760:. Vietnam's policy of assimilation involved the forcefeeding of pork to Muslims and beef to Hindus, which fueled resentment. An 5837: 5334: 5307: 4938: 3637: 1998:' for a chart of the death rate (per 100,000) of the Thirty Years' War compared to other armed conflicts between 1400 and 2000. 1871: 627:

were ravaged. The Huns never again posed a threat to the Romans after Attila's death, but the rise of the Huns also forced the

2421: 1157: 714:

during the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries, the invaders decimated the populations of China, Russia, the Middle East, and

5195: 4838: 1138: 842: 656: 569:

ancestry, embarked on a massive expansion throughout Eurasia, which is considered to be associated with the dispersal of the

527:(1618–1648), which started as a war of succession to the Bohemian throne. Animosity between Protestants and Catholics in the 444: 4834:"Human and nature dynamics (HANDY): Modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies" 830: 740: 4270: 4230: 867:

The angel of death striking a door during the plague of Rome; engraving by Levasseur after Jules-Elie Delaunay (1828–1891).

749: 37: 5585: 5491: 4943: 4643: 4250: 2102: 2029: 61: 6384: 4531:"Modeling sustainability: population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and Human Systems" 4504:

Homer-Dixon, Thomas (2007), "The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of Civilization" (Knopf, Canada)

1164: 457:

committed suicide in 30 BC. While it is difficult to say for certain whether Egypt would have become a Roman province if

257:, or "reorganization", especially if collapse is understood as a "complete end" of political systems, which according to 6458: 6238: 5635: 5535: 2459: 807: 153: 142: 907:, but others blamed Christians. However, the Antonine Plague strengthened the position of the monotheistic religion of 6443: 6369: 6118: 5317: 5267: 4872: 2513: 2208:

Scheffer, Marten; van Nes, Egbert H.; Kemp, Luke; Kohler, Timothy A.; Lenton, Timothy M.; Xu, Chi (28 November 2023).

1406: 250: 3370: 3092:

Zhang, David D.; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry F.; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane (4 December 2007). Ehrlich, Paul R. (ed.).

1304:

that by around 1600, their society had fallen into a downward spiral of warfare, cannibalism, and population decline.

1123: 1528:

investment in sociopolitical complexity as a problem-solving response reaches a point of declining marginal returns.

722:, destroyed many cities, slaughtered thousands of people, and irreparably damaged the ancient irrigation systems of 6448: 6438: 5778: 5630: 5605: 5015: 3796: 3599: 2389:

Beyond Collapse: Archaeological Perspectives on Resilience, Revitalization, and Transformation in Complex Societies

1667: 1643: 1171: 1098: 796: 544: 1276: 1142: 1127: 562: 6248: 6181: 6024: 5756: 5751: 5625: 5455: 5297: 5084: 4804: 1247: 958: 412: 4693:

T.F. Allen, J.A. Tainter et al. 2001 Dragnet Ecology: The Privilege of Science in a Postmodern World. BioScience

3838: 1333:, it becomes progressively harder for there to be a technological solution to the problem of societal collapse. 916:(249–262 AD) and the Plague of Justinian (541-542). Together, they cracked the foundations of the Roman Empire. 415:

took root around 3000 BC in what is now northwestern India and Pakistan and collapsed around 1700 BC. Since the

6354: 6243: 6138: 6064: 5891: 5520: 5220: 4922: 3028:

Zhang, David D.; Lee, Harry F.; Wang, Cong; Li, Baosheng; Pei, Qing; Zhang, Jane; An, Yulun (18 October 2011).

1856: 1459: 1330: 1320:

theorized that collapsed societies essentially exhausted their own designs and were unable to adapt to natural

1301: 1081: 554: 325:

Contemporary discussions about societal collapse are seeking resilience by suggesting societal transformation.

157: 4816:, Chapter 6, "Sustainability or Collapse", New Society Publishers, Gabriola Island, British Columbia, Canada, 1556:

pass through several distinct stages: genesis, growth, time of troubles, universal state, and disintegration.

1153: 6453: 6349: 5918: 5773: 5069: 1933: 1578: 1362: 570: 280: 254: 169: 102: 3974: 1585:

Toynbee argues that the ultimate sign a civilization has broken down is when the dominant minority forms a

249:

and more recently, have argued that societies discussed as cases of collapse are better understood through

6364: 6198: 6145: 6039: 5862: 5707: 5065: 4039: 3993: 2759:

Robbins-Schug, G.; Blevins, K. Elaine; Cox, Brett; Gray, Kelsey; Mushrif-Tripathy, Veena (December 2013).

2033: 2025: 1876: 1603:

and grows envious. He argues that as civilizations decay, there is a "schism in the body social", whereby

1059: 574: 566: 346: 134: 4789: 5768: 5580: 5042: 5003: 4572: 4439: 4138: 3956:

Andrew G. Robertson, and Laura J. Robertson. "From asps to allegations: biological warfare in history,"

3339: 1350: 1085: 904: 803: 715: 4177: 3666: 748:

and established the Nguyễn dynasty. The last remaining principality of Champa, Panduranga (modern-day

5930: 5832: 5697: 5659: 5409: 5213: 5107: 4847: 4477: 4304: 4080: 3893:

Worlds Together, Worlds Apart A History of the World: From the Beginnings of Humankind to the Present

3252: 3105: 2971: 2905: 2874: 2772: 2710: 2463: 2328: 2221: 2180: 1861: 1725: 1672: 1270: 1102: 834: 783: 761: 612: 608: 524: 500: 485: 350: 319: 284: 4203:"Rome's Runaway Inflation: Currency Devaluation in the Fourth and Fifth Centuries | Mises Institute" 1598:

Internal Proletariat a universal church, and the External Proletariat a bevy of barbarian war-bands.

6274: 6054: 5925: 5847: 5445: 5391: 5339: 5302: 5292: 4998: 4793: 3731: 2037: 1975: 1960: 1928: 1866: 1851: 1321: 1064: 933: 837:

and the start of the Little Ice Age. Some historians suspect that the change in climate was due to

815: 788: 736: 580: 341:, are some of the warning signs. In some cases, a natural disaster (such as a tsunami, earthquake, 173: 3423: 693: 553:, probably due to the plague and other viral hemorrhagic fevers. This decline was followed by the 389:

The Indus Valley Civilization likely de-urbanized and shifted because of changes in crop patterns.

6463: 5977: 5972: 5950: 5935: 5827: 5615: 5595: 5545: 5508: 5498: 5349: 5186: 4800: 4330: 3327: 3242: 3208: 3069: 2843: 2741: 2058: 1913: 1586: 1543: 1402: 1398: 989:

wrote that the Mongols catapulted the corpses of those who contracted the plague into Caffa (now

652: 644: 636: 508: 405: 354: 130: 6330: 404:

in Mesopotamia and the Indus Valley Civilization. The dramatic shift in climate is known as the

1178: 322:, which asserts that for a species in a harsh ecology, extinction is a persistent possibility. 6210: 6111: 5906: 5714: 5679: 5640: 5590: 5481: 5465: 5208: 5149: 5134: 5117: 5035: 4876: 4817: 4778: 4723: 4713: 4667: 4560: 4420: 4322: 4157: 4114: 4096: 4069:"Pre-Columbian mycobacterial genomes reveal seals as a source of New World human tuberculosis" 4019: 3931: 3699: 3575: 3511: 3507:

Southern Vietnam Under the Reign of Minh Mạng (1820-1841): Central Policies and Local Response

3505: 3453: 3286: 3268: 3190: 3133: 3061: 2938: 2835: 2800: 2733: 2581: 2491: 2249: 2133: 1898: 1811: 1700: 1561: 1548: 1467: 1346: 1265: 986: 913: 858: 823: 550: 528: 263: 258: 200: 165: 126: 98: 94: 4053: 3447: 2374:

Questioning Collapse: Human Resilience, Ecological Vulnerability, and the Aftermath of Empire

1497:) or exercise less authority than it asserts (undermining its legitimacy in the public eye). 1394:

Economic prospects fluctuate in tandem with a society's access to cheap and abundant energy.

6359: 6294: 6123: 6101: 5945: 5913: 5901: 5877: 5503: 5450: 5440: 5399: 5329: 5324: 5053: 4961: 4855: 4768: 4760: 4623: 4550: 4542: 4516:

Hall, Charles 2009 "What is the Minimum EROI that a Sustainable Society Must Have" ENERGIES

4485: 4389: 4312: 4104: 4088: 3921: 3565: 3555: 3276: 3260: 3180: 3123: 3113: 3051: 3041: 2979: 2930: 2863:"Evidence for Tectonic Activity During the Mature Harappan Civilization, 2600-1800 BCE" 2827: 2790: 2780: 2725: 2551: 2547: 2481: 2471: 2239: 2229: 2188: 2142: 1781: 1685: 1341: 1261: 711: 628: 584: 477: 338: 295: 4251:

Dynamics of Indigenous Demographic Fluctuations: Lessons from Sixteenth-Century Cusco, Peru

2818:

Lawler, A. (6 June 2008). "Indus Collapse: The End or the Beginning of an Asian Culture?".

362:. The diversity of forms that societies evolve corresponds to diversity in their failures. 6410: 6188: 6029: 5600: 5460: 5376: 5364: 5344: 5240: 5030: 5010: 4933: 4742: 4446: 4257: 4234: 3981: 3377: 3346: 2305: 2054: 1970: 1965: 1833: 1786: 1665:

remained popular outside academia. Interest revived decades later with the publication of

1654: 1635: 1565: 1478:

Empires, for example, all fractured and collapsed when no new conquests could be achieved.

1463: 1358: 1325: 1254: 950: 942: 896: 880: 773: 558: 516: 401: 291: 2405:

Shmuel Eisenstadt (1991). "Beyond Collapse". In Norman Yoffee; George L. Cowgill (eds.).

1084:, and doctors and public health experts such as former Chief Medical Officer for England 1035: 924:

to concentrate on recapturing territories belonging to the Western Empire. His generals,

373:

In the case of the Western Roman Empire, some argued that it did not collapse but merely

160:. However, some of them later revived and transformed, such as China, Greece, and Egypt. 4851: 4481: 4308: 4084: 3417: 3256: 3109: 2975: 2909: 2878: 2776: 2467: 2244: 2225: 2209: 2184: 2057:, for every British soldier who got killed in action, eight died of disease. During the 495: 6398: 6166: 6106: 6091: 6044: 5940: 5886: 5746: 5404: 5381: 5354: 5272: 5262: 5164: 5159: 5025: 4976: 4829: 4773: 4746: 4660: 4555: 4530: 4412: 4109: 4068: 3570: 3543: 3281: 3230: 3128: 3093: 3056: 3029: 2795: 2760: 2599: 2486: 2447: 1938: 1918: 1796: 1761: 1753: 1739: 1624: 1437: 1317: 1031: 1019: 994: 978: 838: 512: 469: 432: 219: 208: 138: 6405: 3694:

Cochran, Gregory; Harpending, Henry (2009). "Chapter 4: Consequences of Agriculture".

3231:"Massive migration from the steppe was a source for Indo-European languages in Europe" 3000: 2676:"Collapse of civilizations worldwide defines youngest unit of the Geologic Time Scale" 2651:"Ancient megadrought may explain civilization's 'missing millennia' in Southeast Asia" 753: 345:, massive fire or climate change) may precipitate a collapse. Other factors such as a 6432: 6422: 6309: 6193: 6150: 6096: 6084: 6069: 6059: 5982: 5896: 5872: 5867: 5741: 5736: 5731: 5647: 5235: 5176: 5139: 5091: 4868: 2924: 2893: 2862: 2847: 2577: 2567: 2284: 1923: 1908: 1839: 1776: 1696: 1475: 1297: 1293: 811: 698: 664: 367: 363: 334: 246: 4351: 4178:"The Welfare State: The History Behind It – Government Policy: The Pros and (E)cons" 3073: 2926:

Earthquakes and civilizations of the Indus Valley: A challenge for archaeoseismology

795:

followed. Attacks by the Libyans and Nubians made things even worse. Throughout the

6335: 6269: 6001: 5987: 5842: 5652: 5620: 5610: 5513: 5359: 5257: 5203: 5112: 4971: 4860: 4833: 3213: 2745: 2509: 2210:"The vulnerability of aging states: A survival analysis across premodern societies" 1903: 1828: 1689: 1647: 1553: 1486: 1471: 1228: 1052: 1027: 1023: 908: 900: 727: 706: 690:

noted that all of the lands ravaged by Banu Hilal invaders had become arid desert.

671: 440: 425: 416: 307: 299: 204: 192: 184: 4334: 2831: 2147: 2128: 764:, the first and only war between Vietnam and the jihadists, until it was crushed. 461:(in modern-day Alaska) had not erupted, the eruption likely hastened the process. 2929:. Geological Society of America Special Papers. Vol. 471. pp. 119–127. 2785: 6314: 5996: 5857: 5852: 5689: 5674: 5550: 5525: 5154: 5074: 4981: 4966: 4644:"The Evolution of Civilizations - An Introduction to Historical Analysis (1979)" 4490: 4465: 4274: 4227: 3791: 2761:"Infection, Disease, and Biosocial Process at the End of the Indus Civilization" 2041: 2021: 1943: 1816: 1806: 1594: 1112: 1005: 982: 969: 921: 723: 687: 679: 620: 492:, but it caused wars, mass migration, and famine, which helped diseases spread. 489: 458: 431:

Volcanic eruptions can abruptly influence the climate. During a large eruption,

370:, loss of soil fertility, restrictions of trade and/or rising endemic violence. 311: 268: 50: 4792:

by Prof. Michael Kelly, disagreeing with the paper by Ehrlich and Ehrlich; and

3969:

Rakibul Hasan, "Biological Weapons: covert threats to Global Health Security."

3548:

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

3185: 3164: 3098:

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

3034:

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

2729: 2193: 2168: 6264: 6079: 6049: 6034: 5822: 5810: 5570: 5432: 5058: 4628: 4611: 2934: 1845: 1747: 1715: 1612: 1494: 1373: 1369: 1076: 925: 683: 540: 359: 177: 106: 17: 4727: 4100: 4040:"BBC - History - British History in depth: Smallpox: Eradicating the Scourge" 3272: 6417: 6006: 5795: 5724: 5669: 5664: 5530: 5371: 5277: 5020: 4891: 4805:

The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization

4656:

Harry J Hogan in the foreword (p17) and Quigley in the conclusion (p416) to

4464:

Hall, Charles A.S.; Lambert, Jessica G.; Balogh, Stephen B. (January 2014).

4377: 3926: 3909: 3594: 3560: 3118: 3094:"Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history" 3046: 2709:

Robbins-Schug, G.; Gray, K.M.; Mushrif, V.; Sankhyan, A.R. (November 2012).

2476: 2234: 2008: 1888: 1791: 1766: 1490: 1414: 1048: 1044: 990: 963: 937: 892: 846: 792: 632: 454: 196: 4782: 4764: 4564: 4394: 4326: 4118: 3994:"BBC - History - British History in depth: Black Death: The lasting impact" 3935: 3579: 3290: 3194: 3137: 3065: 2839: 2804: 2737: 2495: 2253: 4707: 6299: 6284: 5815: 5800: 5702: 5540: 4988: 4811: 4546: 3399: 3397: 1893: 1695:

In the 1990s, the evolutionary anthropologist and quantitative historian

1639: 1631: 1072: 954: 884: 745: 520: 342: 146: 118: 110: 4092: 3264: 2007:

The Vandals thus made themselves the origin of the modern English word '

6279: 6133: 6128: 5965: 5955: 5763: 5575: 5287: 5282: 4517: 4016:

The 10,000 Year Explosion: How Civilization Accelerated Human Evolution

3696:

The 10,000 Year Explosion: How Civilization Accelerated Human Evolution

3030:"The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis" 2625:"Revealed: The Truth Behind the Indus Valley Civilization's 'Collapse'" 1015: 888: 675: 660: 640: 592: 421: 188: 90: 4662:

The evolution of civilizations: an introduction to historical analysis

2984: 2959: 705:

In 1206, a warlord achieved dominance over all Mongols with the title

236:

as "the most widely known instance of collapse" in the Western world.

113:. Possible causes of a societal collapse include natural catastrophe, 6289: 6215: 4352:"Why a two-state solution doesn't guarantee peace in the Middle East" 4014:

Cochran, Gregory; Harpending, Henry (2010). "Chapter 6: Expansions".

2960:"An Alaskan volcano, climate change, and the history of ancient Rome" 1771: 929: 891:. The disease likely started in China and spread to the West via the 732: 603:

and initiated a campaign of invasions and looting and went as far as

596: 449: 303: 122: 4317: 4292: 3763:"History's deadliest pandemics, from ancient Rome to modern America" 1525:

increased complexity carries with it increased costs per capita; and

1022:, and the bubonic plague, among others. In tropical areas, malaria, 3667:"One of Europe's worst famines likely caused by devastating floods" 3247: 2538:

Joseph A. Tainter (2006). "Archaeology of Overshoot and Collapse".

619:

in 451 AD, the Romans were unable to prevent Attila from attacking

306:

in Mesoamerica (both 1,000 years), and the shortest-lived were the

5960: 5719: 1801: 1455:, a society whose continuing function depends on constant growth ( 1365:, as demonstrated in Western culture's ideal of perpetual growth. 1340: 1288: 1275: 1004: 977:

There is evidence that the Mongol expeditions may have spread the

968: 876: 862: 719: 692: 624: 579: 494: 463: 384: 4419:(1st paperback ed.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 1642:(removal of oneself from the realities of a decaying world), and 587:

played an important role in the fall of the Western Roman Empire.

6304: 4529:

Jelena Srebric, Victor M. Yakovenko, Ning Zeng (December 2016).

2923:

Kovach, Robert L.; Grijalva, Kelly; Nur, Amos (1 October 2010).

2711:"A Peaceful Realm? Trauma and Social Differentiation at Harappa" 2280:"End of days: Is Western civilisation on the brink of collapse?" 1324:

for what they knew as their method of survival. The philosopher

604: 600: 4895: 3371:

Ibn Battuta's Trip: Part Three - Persia and Iraq (1326 - 1327)

3217:. Faculty of Science - University of Copenhagen. 4 April 2017. 2301:"'Society could end in less than a decade,' predicts academic" 1106: 1009:

Aztec victims of smallpox, from the Florentine Codex (1540–85)

806:

in China ended by King Zheng of the Qin dynasty succeeding in

358:

rising up and seizing power from a smaller wealthy elite in a

114: 3868:"How three prior pandemics triggered massive societal shifts" 2678:. News and Meetings. International Commission on Stratigraphy 2040:

and before the Second Indochinese War, commonly known as the

829:

In Continental Europe, things were at least just as bad. The

3943:

Istoria de Morbo sive Mortalitate quae fuit Anno Domini 1348

2169:"Panicking about societal collapse? Plunder the bookshelves" 1522:

sociopolitical systems require energy for their maintenance;

2861:

Grijalva, K.A.; Kovach, L.R.; Nur, A.M. (1 December 2006).

4813:

Technofix: Why Technology Won’t Save Us or the Environment

4466:"EROI of Different Fuels and the Implications for Society" 3209:"Steppe migrant thugs pacified by Stone Age farming women" 3475:"The Uprisings of Katip Sumat and Ja Thak Wa (1833-1835)" 2360:. New Studies in Archaeology. Cambridge University Press. 957:

seized the opportunity to launch military campaigns that

903:, both of whom victims of the disease, of affronting the 4378:"Modeling Social Pressures Toward Political Instability" 875:

From the description of symptoms by the Greek physician

591:

In the third century BC, a Eurasian nomadic people, the

3416:

Elijah Coleman Bridgman; Samuel Wells Willaims (1847).

2391:. Occasional Paper. Southern Illinois University Press. 985:

of the early fourteenth century. The Italian historian

420:

interpersonal violence and in infectious diseases like

290:

close to 340 years. Of them, the most durable were the

4810:

Huesemann, Michael H., and Joyce A. Huesemann (2011).

2329:"How Do You Know When Society Is About to Fall Apart?" 6382: 5123:

Self-indication assumption doomsday argument rebuttal

2448:"Societal collapse or transformation, and resilience" 1630:

He argues that in that environment, people resort to

5049:

Safety of high-energy particle collision experiments

2894:"Tectonic Activity during the Harappan Civilization" 2618: 2616: 2446:

Leonie J. Pearson; Craig J. Pearson (24 July 2012).

1357:

What produces modern sedentary life, unlike nomadic

1055:

from seals and sea lions played a significant part.

810:

and thus becoming the first Chinese emperor, titled

366:

suggests that societies have also collapsed through

6257: 6226: 6159: 6017: 5688: 5563: 5474: 5431: 5424: 5390: 5194: 5185: 5100: 4954: 4747:"Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?" 4612:"The Return of Civilization—and of Arnold Toynbee?" 4271:"Population crises and cycles in history - OzIdeas" 3895:(2nd ed. 2008) ch. 11 pp. 472–75 and map pp. 476–77 3817: 3620: 3403: 3388: 3358: 3315: 3303: 3150: 2696: 4659: 1519:human societies are problem-solving organizations; 1260:There is strong evidence that humans also display 981:across much of Eurasia, which helped to spark the 756:(Nguyễn Phúc Đảm) conquered it after centuries of 3163:Rascovan, N; Sjögren, KG; Kristiansen, K (2019). 2573:Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed 2372:Patricia A. McAnany; Norman Yoffee, eds. (2009). 1589:, which stifles political creativity. He states: 1382:Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed 1231:, providing citizens free money and free grain. 551:neolithic populations in western Eurasia declined 6177:List of apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic fiction 3910:"History of biological warfare and bioterrorism" 2407:The Collapse of Ancient States and Civilizations 936:(541-542). According to the Byzantine historian 768:Famine, economic depression, and internal strife 239:Others, particularly in response to the popular 4712:. Washington, D.C.: National Geographic. 2007. 2452:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2214:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 1591: 203:. More recently, they are joined by experts in 6075:List of dates predicted for apocalyptic events 2103:"Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?" 752:, Vietnam), survived until 1832, when Emperor 5080:Existential risk from artificial intelligence 4907: 4054:"Guns Germs & Steel: Variables. Smallpox" 3908:Barras, Vincent; Greub, Gilbert (June 2014). 2892:Prasad, Manika; Nur, Amos (1 December 2001). 2400: 2398: 2020:North and South here are with respect to the 557:. Around 3,000 BC, people of the pastoralist 8: 4577:: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list ( 1823:Malthusian and environmental collapse themes 623:the next year. Northern Italian cities like 5128:Self-referencing doomsday argument rebuttal 4875:. New York: Carroll & Graf Publishers. 3165:"Emergence and Spread of Basal Lineages of 1141:. Unsourced material may be challenged and 973:Spread of the Bubonic plague through Europe 5428: 5231:Climate change and civilizational collapse 5191: 4914: 4900: 4892: 4616:Comparative Studies in Society and History 3971:Asian Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies 3638:"The Great Flood and Great Famine of 1314" 1883:Cultural and institutional collapse themes 395:Climate change and civilizational collapse 4859: 4772: 4627: 4554: 4489: 4393: 4316: 4108: 4018:. United States of America: Basic Books. 3925: 3698:. United States of America: Basic Books. 3569: 3559: 3452:. Parkstone International. pp. 25–. 3280: 3246: 3184: 3127: 3117: 3055: 3045: 2983: 2794: 2784: 2514:"How Western civilisation could collapse" 2485: 2475: 2351: 2349: 2243: 2233: 2192: 2146: 1995: 1205:Learn how and when to remove this message 615:. Despite managing to stop Attila at the 509:General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century 6234:Centre for the Study of Existential Risk 6172:Apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic fiction 3340:Populations Crises and Population Cycles 2422:"The lifespans of ancient civilisations" 2129:"Societal collapse: A literature review" 1692:about systemic organization and change. 1312:Cognitive decline and loss of creativity 6389: 4595:(Cambridge University Press) pp. 59-60. 4440:Jared Diamond on why societies collapse 4239:Population Crises and Population cycles 4228:Population crises and cycles in history 2718:International Journal of Paleopathology 2552:10.1146/annurev.anthro.35.081705.123136 2299:Pasha-Robinson, Lucy (7 January 2017). 2074: 1987: 1345:During the 9th century AD, the central 1051:diseases, though new research suggests 739:went into decline in the late 1700s, a 294:in Northeast Africa (1,150 years), the 4605: 4603: 4601: 4570: 4459: 4457: 4455: 3861: 3859: 3832: 3830: 3828: 3826: 3785: 3783: 3761:Rosenwald, Michael S. (7 April 2020). 3756: 3754: 3752: 3732:"Visualizing the History of Pandemics" 3725: 3723: 3721: 3719: 3717: 3715: 3689: 3687: 3660: 3658: 3631: 3629: 3537: 3535: 3533: 3531: 3529: 3527: 3087: 3085: 3083: 3023: 3021: 3019: 2623:Pillalamarri, Akhilesh (2 June 2016). 1353:, marked by the abandonment of cities. 298:in East Africa (1,100 years), and the 4745:; Ehrlich, Anne H. (9 January 2013). 4709:Essential Visual History of the World 4512: 4510: 4407: 4405: 4346: 4344: 4286: 4284: 4009: 4007: 4005: 4003: 3903: 3901: 3011:from the original on 2 February 2020. 2563: 2561: 2273: 2271: 2269: 2267: 2265: 2263: 7: 5251:Tipping points in the climate system 4241:by Claire Russell and W M S Russell. 3839:"Covid-19: The history of pandemics" 3593:Mark, Joshua J. (2 September 2009). 3544:"Collapse, environment, and society" 3510:. SEAP Publications. pp. 141–. 2958:Wilson, R. Mark (1 September 2020). 2162: 2160: 2158: 2096: 2094: 2092: 2090: 2088: 2086: 2084: 2082: 2080: 2078: 1139:adding citations to reliable sources 535:Foreign invasions and mass migration 381:Natural disasters and climate change 5246:Extinction risk from climate change 5145:New World Order (conspiracy theory) 3914:Clinical Microbiology and Infection 3665:Fritts, Rachel (13 December 2019). 3446:Jean-François Hubert (8 May 2012). 3349:, Claire Russell and W.M.S. Russell 2167:Spinney, Laura (18 February 2020). 1787:John B. Calhoun's mouse experiments 1547:(1934–1961), the British historian 6206:List of fictional doomsday devices 4752:Proceedings of the Royal Society B 2327:Ben Ehrenreich (4 November 2020). 2278:Spinney, Laura (17 January 2018). 1671:(1997) by the political scientist 1405:proposed an economic model called 778:List of revolutions and rebellions 651:. The last Western Roman Emperor, 25: 5226:Cataclysmic pole shift hypothesis 4828:Motesharrei, Safa; Rivas, Jorge; 4610:Kumar, Krishan (3 October 2014). 4593:The Collapse of Complex Societies 4417:The Collapse of Complex Societies 3866:Latham, Andrew (1 October 2020). 3730:LePan, Nicholas (14 March 2020). 2358:The Collapse of Complex Societies 1956:Failure mode and effects analysis 1541:In his acclaimed 12-volume work, 1337:Social and environmental dynamics 949:The epidemic also devastated the 225:The Collapse of Complex Societies 89:) is the fall of a complex human 6416: 6404: 6392: 6342: 6341: 6329: 5487:Decline in amphibian populations 3542:Butzer, Karl W. (6 March 2012). 2649:Choi, Charles (24 August 2020). 2600:"The Myth of the "Fall" of Rome" 2387:Ronald K. Faulseit, ed. (2016). 1746: 1732: 1718: 1280:Military and civilian fatalities 1111: 808:defeating six competing factions 718:. Later Mongol leaders, such as 234:fall of the Western Roman Empire 187:, is a topic for specialists of 183:The study of societal collapse, 60: 36: 5838:Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse 5335:Land surface effects on climate 5308:Human impact on the environment 4939:Future of an expanding universe 2999:Hawkins, Ed (30 January 2020). 2420:Kemp, Luke (19 February 2019). 2101:Kemp, Luke (18 February 2019). 1872:Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 1536: 802:Between 481 BC and 221 BC, the 599:rose to power as leader of the 549:Between ca. 4000 and 3000 BCE, 27:Fall of a complex human society 4861:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.02.014 4807:. Washington DC: Island Press. 4291:Turchin, Peter (2 July 2008). 4273:. 5 April 2011. Archived from 3837:Walsh, Bryan (25 March 2020). 2598:Mark Damen (28 January 2017). 1659:The Evolution of Civilizations 1638:(idealization of the future), 1568:discussed the transition from 843:Crisis of the Late Middle Ages 833:coincided with the end of the 445:assassination of Julius Caesar 1: 5784:Interpretations of Revelation 5586:Cosmological phase transition 5492:Decline in insect populations 4944:Ultimate fate of the universe 4646:– via Internet Archive. 4156:. PublicAffairs. p. 29. 3169:during the Neolithic Decline" 2832:10.1126/science.320.5881.1281 2540:Annual Review of Anthropology 2148:10.1016/j.futures.2022.103075 1657:expanded upon that theory in 507:A more recent example is the 222:frames societal collapse in 93:characterized by the loss of 6239:Future of Humanity Institute 5636:Potentially hazardous object 5536:Interplanetary contamination 2786:10.1371/journal.pone.0084814 2460:National Academy of Sciences 1994:See the end of the section ' 1634:(idealization of the past), 804:Period of the Warring States 670:In the eleventh century AD, 6119:Nemesis (hypothetical star) 5268:Global terrestrial stilling 4873:A Short History of Progress 4491:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.049 3790:Horgan, John (2 May 2019). 3328:The Great Mosque of Tlemcen 1432:Models of societal response 1407:energy return on investment 1389:Energy return on investment 1302:destroyed their environment 6480: 5631:Asteroid impact prediction 5606:Heat death of the universe 5016:Mutual assured destruction 4154:The Storm Before The Storm 3797:World History Encyclopedia 3600:World History Encyclopedia 3186:10.1016/j.cell.2018.11.005 2898:AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts 2867:AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts 2730:10.1016/j.ijpp.2012.09.012 2356:Joseph A. Tainter (1988). 2194:10.1038/d41586-020-00436-3 1668:The Clash of Civilizations 1627:by the creative minority. 1245: 1099:Technological unemployment 1096: 1093:Institutional unemployment 1089:10 public-health threats. 1041:Native American population 883:(165–180 AD) to have been 856: 771: 545:Pre-modern human migration 538: 392: 278: 158:Easter Island civilization 6323: 6249:Nuclear Threat Initiative 6182:List of apocalyptic films 6025:2011 end times prediction 5757:Prophecy of Seventy Weeks 5752:Abomination of desolation 5626:Asteroid impact avoidance 5456:List of extinction events 5298:Environmental degradation 5085:Technological singularity 4929: 4923:Global catastrophic risks 4629:10.1017/S0010417514000413 2127:Brozović, Danilo (2023). 1537:Toynbee's theory of decay 1248:Sub-replacement fertility 831:Great Famine of 1315–1317 639:and was plundered by the 565:, who had high levels of 413:Indus Valley Civilization 6244:Future of Life Institute 6146:Resurrection of the dead 6139:Post-tribulation rapture 5521:Colony collapse disorder 4658:Carroll Quigley (1979). 4591:Tainter, Joseph (1990), 4445:13 February 2014 at the 4134:Smallpox Through History 3980:17 December 2014 at the 3960:(1995) 160#8 pp. 369–73. 3818:National Geographic 2007 3621:National Geographic 2007 3504:Choi Byung Wook (2004). 3422:. proprietors. pp. 3404:National Geographic 2007 3389:National Geographic 2007 3359:National Geographic 2007 3316:National Geographic 2007 3304:National Geographic 2007 3151:National Geographic 2007 2697:National Geographic 2007 2053:For example, during the 2024:, which is close to the 1857:Global catastrophic risk 1505: 1460:Frederick Jackson Turner 1331:research and development 1082:resistant to antibiotics 555:Indo-European migrations 5070:Artificial intelligence 4535:National Science Review 4376:Turchin, Peter (2013). 4237:, A review of the book 3927:10.1111/1469-0691.12706 3561:10.1073/pnas.1114845109 3119:10.1073/pnas.0703073104 3047:10.1073/pnas.1104268108 2477:10.1073/pnas.1207552109 2235:10.1073/pnas.2218834120 2028:, or approximately the 1934:Sociocultural evolution 1579:The Decline of the West 663:, who declared himself 571:Indo-European languages 439:) is expelled into the 281:Societal transformation 255:societal transformation 172:, long-term decline of 170:extractive institutions 83:civilizational collapse 6199:List of disaster films 6040:Apocalyptic literature 5140:Malthusian catastrophe 5066:Synthetic intelligence 4765:10.1098/rspb.2012.2845 4395:10.21237/C7clio4221333 4293:"Arise 'cliodynamics'" 3419:The Chinese Repository 3005:climate-lab-book.ac.uk 1600: 1354: 1349:region suffered major 1305: 1281: 1010: 995:the siege of that city 974: 959:overran the Sassanians 868: 845:.) Recent analysis of 702: 588: 575:Early European Farmers 504: 473: 390: 347:Malthusian catastrophe 310:in India (24) and the 302:in South Asia and the 5581:Coronal mass ejection 5043:Electromagnetic pulse 5004:Kinetic energy weapon 4152:Duncan, Mike (2017). 3891:Robert Tignor et al. 3736:The Visual Capitalist 3376:23 April 2008 at the 2935:10.1130/2010.2471(11) 2038:First Indochinese War 1836:– rat colony collapse 1344: 1292: 1279: 1008: 972: 938:Procopius of Caesarea 866: 696: 583: 563:Pontic–Caspian steppe 498: 467: 388: 71:by Thomas Cole (1836) 5983:War of Gog and Magog 5660:Near-Earth supernova 5410:Human overpopulation 5214:Mass mortality event 5108:Anthropogenic hazard 4839:Ecological Economics 4256:25 June 2021 at the 4233:5 April 2011 at the 3330:, MuslimHeritage.com 2034:Partition of Vietnam 1996:Demographic dynamics 1862:Human overpopulation 1726:Civilizations portal 1673:Samuel P. Huntington 1397:Political scientist 1271:elite overproduction 1242:Demographic dynamics 1135:improve this section 1103:Economics of slavery 835:Medieval Warm Period 784:New Kingdom of Egypt 782:Around 1210 BC, the 758:Cham–Vietnamese wars 716:Islamic Central Asia 613:Western Roman Empire 609:Eastern Roman Empire 486:Medieval Warm Period 411:The highly advanced 335:cascade into another 320:Red Queen hypothesis 285:Community resilience 69:The Course of Empire 46:The Course of Empire 6459:Theories of history 6055:Blood moon prophecy 5848:Number of the Beast 5446:Holocene extinction 5392:Earth Overshoot Day 5340:Ocean acidification 5303:Habitat destruction 5293:Ecological collapse 4999:Kinetic bombardment 4934:Future of the Earth 4852:2014EcoEc.101...90M 4801:Homer-Dixon, Thomas 4482:2014EnPol..64..141H 4356:Washington Examiner 4309:2008Natur.454...34T 4141:on 29 October 2009. 4093:10.1038/nature13591 4085:2014Natur.514..494B 3767:The Washington Post 3623:, pp. 100–103. 3406:, pp. 244–245. 3391:, pp. 176–177. 3361:, pp. 166–167. 3345:27 May 2013 at the 3265:10.1038/nature14317 3257:2015Natur.522..207H 3153:, pp. 190–191. 3110:2007PNAS..10419214Z 3104:(49): 19214–19219. 3040:(42): 17296–17301. 2976:2020PhT....73i..17W 2910:2001AGUFM.U52B..07P 2879:2006AGUFM.T51D1553G 2826:(5881): 1282–1283. 2777:2013PLoSO...884814R 2468:2012PNAS..109E2030P 2226:2023PNAS..12018834S 2220:(48): e2218834120. 2185:2020Natur.578..355S 1976:Systems engineering 1961:Fault tree analysis 1929:Social cycle theory 1867:Medieval demography 1852:Ecological collapse 1322:diminishing returns 1316:The anthropologist 1154:"Societal collapse" 1065:History of smallpox 934:Plague of Justinian 922:Justinian the Great 816:Great Wall of China 585:Barbarian invasions 174:cognitive abilities 6444:Doomsday scenarios 6370:Doomsday scenarios 5936:Beast of the Earth 5828:Book of Revelation 5616:Virtual black hole 5596:False vacuum decay 5546:Pollinator decline 5509:Biological warfare 5499:Biotechnology risk 5350:Resource depletion 4759:(1754): 20122845. 4547:10.1093/nsr/nww081 4449:TED talk, Feb 2003 4413:Tainter, Joseph A. 3973:(2014) 2#9 p. 38. 3669:. Earth Sciences. 3179:(1): 295–305.e10. 2333:The New York Times 2059:American Civil War 1914:Group cohesiveness 1544:A Study of History 1506:Tainter's critique 1399:Thomas Homer-Dixon 1355: 1351:political collapse 1306: 1282: 1011: 987:Gabriele de’ Mussi 975: 953:in Persia. Caliph 869: 703: 653:Romulus Augustulus 589: 505: 474: 406:4.2-kiloyear event 391: 355:resource depletion 329:Causes of collapse 300:Vedic civilization 275:Societal longevity 131:population decline 109:, and the rise of 105:, the downfall of 43:Destruction, from 6449:Economic problems 6439:Societal collapse 6380: 6379: 6211:Zombie apocalypse 6112:Postmillennialism 5907:Great Tribulation 5680:Stellar collision 5641:Near-Earth object 5591:Geomagnetic storm 5559: 5558: 5482:Biodiversity loss 5466:Genetic pollution 5420: 5419: 5209:Biodiversity loss 5172:Societal collapse 5150:Nuclear holocaust 5135:Economic collapse 5118:Doomsday argument 5036:Antimatter weapon 4822:978-0-86571-704-6 4797: 4719:978-1-4262-0091-5 4666:. Liberty Press. 4079:(7523): 494–497. 4025:978-0-465-02042-3 3958:Military medicine 3820:, pp. 84–85. 3792:"Antonine Plague" 3705:978-0-465-02042-3 3554:(10): 3632–3639. 3459:978-1-78042-964-9 3449:The Art of Champa 3318:, pp. 82–83. 3306:, pp. 94–97. 3241:(7555): 207–211. 2985:10.1063/PT.3.4563 2944:978-0-8137-2471-3 2699:, pp. 48–49. 2586:978-0-241-95868-1 2580:, 2005 and 2011 ( 2512:(18 April 2017). 2179:(7795): 355–357. 1899:Economic collapse 1812:Social alienation 1701:income inequality 1623:together replace 1611:together replace 1562:dominant minority 1549:Arnold J. Toynbee 1266:carrying capacity 1262:population cycles 1215: 1214: 1207: 1189: 993:, Crimea) during 914:Plague of Cyprian 859:List of epidemics 853:Disease outbreaks 797:Twentieth Dynasty 762:uprising followed 735:. When Vietnam's 701:from 1206 to 1294 697:Expansion of the 617:Battle of Chalons 529:Holy Roman Empire 525:Thirty Years' War 501:Thirty Years' War 478:paleoclimatogical 259:Shmuel Eisenstadt 201:political science 154:Maya civilization 127:economic collapse 99:social complexity 95:cultural identity 79:Societal collapse 67:Desolation, from 16:(Redirected from 6471: 6421: 6420: 6409: 6408: 6397: 6396: 6395: 6388: 6345: 6344: 6336:World portal 6334: 6333: 6295:Financial crisis 6124:Nibiru cataclysm 6102:Premillennialism 5946:Dhul-Suwayqatayn 5914:Son of perdition 5902:Olivet Discourse 5878:Whore of Babylon 5504:Biological agent 5451:Human extinction 5441:Extinction event 5429: 5400:Overexploitation 5330:Land consumption 5325:Land degradation 5192: 5054:Micro black hole 4962:Chemical warfare 4916: 4909: 4902: 4893: 4865: 4863: 4787: 4786: 4776: 4743:Ehrlich, Paul R. 4731: 4694: 4691: 4685: 4684: 4682: 4680: 4665: 4654: 4648: 4647: 4640: 4634: 4633: 4631: 4607: 4596: 4589: 4583: 4582: 4576: 4568: 4558: 4525: 4519: 4514: 4505: 4502: 4496: 4495: 4493: 4461: 4450: 4437: 4431: 4430: 4409: 4400: 4399: 4397: 4373: 4367: 4366: 4364: 4362: 4348: 4339: 4338: 4320: 4288: 4279: 4278: 4277:on 5 April 2011. 4267: 4261: 4248: 4242: 4225: 4219: 4218: 4216: 4214: 4209:. 5 January 2023 4199: 4193: 4192: 4190: 4188: 4174: 4168: 4167: 4149: 4143: 4142: 4137:. 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3486: 3485:on 26 June 2015 3472: 3471: 3467: 3460: 3445: 3444: 3440: 3435: 3431: 3415: 3414: 3410: 3402: 3395: 3387: 3383: 3378:Wayback Machine 3369: 3365: 3357: 3353: 3347:Wayback Machine 3338: 3334: 3326: 3322: 3314: 3310: 3302: 3298: 3227: 3226: 3222: 3207: 3206: 3202: 3167:Yersinia pestis 3162: 3161: 3157: 3149: 3145: 3091: 3090: 3081: 3027: 3026: 3017: 2998: 2997: 2993: 2957: 2956: 2952: 2945: 2922: 2921: 2917: 2891: 2890: 2886: 2860: 2859: 2855: 2817: 2816: 2812: 2758: 2757: 2753: 2713: 2708: 2707: 2703: 2695: 2691: 2681: 2679: 2674: 2673: 2669: 2659: 2657: 2648: 2647: 2643: 2633: 2631: 2622: 2621: 2614: 2604: 2602: 2597: 2596: 2592: 2566: 2559: 2537: 2536: 2532: 2522: 2520: 2508: 2507: 2503: 2462:: E2030–E2031. 2445: 2444: 2440: 2430: 2428: 2419: 2418: 2414: 2404: 2403: 2396: 2386: 2385: 2381: 2371: 2370: 2366: 2355: 2354: 2347: 2337: 2335: 2326: 2325: 2321: 2311: 2309: 2306:The Independent 2298: 2297: 2293: 2277: 2276: 2261: 2207: 2206: 2202: 2166: 2165: 2156: 2126: 2125: 2121: 2111: 2109: 2100: 2099: 2076: 2071: 2066: 2065: 2055:Napoleonic Wars 2052: 2048: 2032:, used for the 2019: 2015: 2006: 2002: 1993: 1989: 1984: 1971:Risk assessment 1966:Hazard analysis 1950:Systems science 1834:Behavioral sink 1752: 1745: 1738: 1733: 1731: 1724: 1719: 1717: 1714: 1681: 1679:Systems science 1655:Carroll Quigley 1587:Universal State 1566:Oswald Spengler 1539: 1508: 1464:Frontier Thesis 1434: 1391: 1339: 1326:Oswald Spengler 1314: 1296:suggested that 1287: 1250: 1244: 1211: 1200: 1194: 1191: 1148: 1146: 1132: 1116: 1105: 1095: 1032:river blindness 951:Sasanian Empire 943:Yersinia pestis 899:and Co-Emperor 897:Marcus Aurelius 881:Antonine Plague 861: 855: 780: 774:List of famines 770: 559:Yamnaya culture 547: 537: 517:Maunder Minimum 438: 402:Akkadian Empire 397: 383: 331: 314:in China (14). 296:Aksumite Empire 292:Kushite Kingdom 287: 279:Main articles: 277: 217: 209:complex systems 103:adaptive system 81:(also known as 76: 75: 74: 73: 72: 65: 56: 55: 54: 41: 28: 23: 22: 15: 12: 11: 5: 6477: 6475: 6467: 6466: 6461: 6456: 6454:Social systems 6451: 6446: 6441: 6431: 6430: 6426: 6425: 6413: 6401: 6378: 6377: 6375: 6374: 6373: 6372: 6367: 6362: 6357: 6352: 6350:Apocalypticism 6339: 6324: 6321: 6320: 6318: 6317: 6312: 6307: 6302: 6297: 6292: 6287: 6282: 6277: 6272: 6267: 6261: 6259: 6255: 6254: 6252: 6251: 6246: 6241: 6236: 6230: 6228: 6224: 6223: 6221: 6220: 6219: 6218: 6208: 6203: 6202: 6201: 6194:Disaster films 6191: 6186: 6185: 6184: 6179: 6169: 6167:Alien invasion 6163: 6161: 6157: 6156: 6154: 6153: 6148: 6143: 6142: 6141: 6136: 6126: 6121: 6116: 6115: 6114: 6109: 6107:Amillennialism 6104: 6094: 6092:Millenarianism 6089: 6088: 6087: 6077: 6072: 6067: 6062: 6057: 6052: 6047: 6045:Apocalypticism 6042: 6037: 6032: 6027: 6021: 6019: 6015: 6014: 6012: 6011: 6010: 6009: 5999: 5994: 5993: 5992: 5991: 5990: 5985: 5980: 5970: 5969: 5968: 5963: 5958: 5953: 5948: 5943: 5941:Dhu al-Qarnayn 5938: 5933: 5923: 5922: 5921: 5916: 5911: 5910: 5909: 5899: 5894: 5889: 5887:Great Apostasy 5884: 5883: 5882: 5881: 5880: 5875: 5870: 5865: 5860: 5855: 5850: 5845: 5840: 5825: 5820: 5819: 5818: 5813: 5803: 5798: 5793: 5788: 5787: 5786: 5776: 5766: 5761: 5760: 5759: 5754: 5744: 5734: 5732:Last Judgement 5729: 5728: 5727: 5722: 5712: 5711: 5710: 5705: 5694: 5692: 5690:Eschatological 5686: 5685: 5683: 5682: 5677: 5672: 5667: 5662: 5657: 5656: 5655: 5650: 5645: 5644: 5643: 5633: 5628: 5618: 5613: 5608: 5603: 5598: 5593: 5588: 5583: 5578: 5573: 5567: 5565: 5561: 5560: 5557: 5556: 5554: 5553: 5548: 5543: 5538: 5533: 5528: 5523: 5518: 5517: 5516: 5511: 5506: 5496: 5495: 5494: 5489: 5478: 5476: 5472: 5471: 5469: 5468: 5463: 5458: 5453: 5448: 5443: 5437: 5435: 5426: 5422: 5421: 5418: 5417: 5415: 5414: 5413: 5412: 5405:Overpopulation 5402: 5396: 5394: 5388: 5387: 5385: 5384: 5382:Water scarcity 5379: 5374: 5369: 5368: 5367: 5357: 5355:Sea level rise 5352: 5347: 5342: 5337: 5332: 5327: 5322: 5321: 5320: 5318:on marine life 5315: 5305: 5300: 5295: 5290: 5285: 5280: 5275: 5273:Global warming 5270: 5265: 5263:Global dimming 5260: 5255: 5254: 5253: 5243: 5238: 5233: 5228: 5223: 5221:Cascade effect 5218: 5217: 5216: 5206: 5200: 5198: 5196:Climate change 5189: 5183: 5182: 5180: 5179: 5174: 5169: 5168: 5167: 5162: 5157: 5147: 5142: 5137: 5132: 5131: 5130: 5125: 5115: 5110: 5104: 5102: 5098: 5097: 5095: 5094: 5089: 5088: 5087: 5082: 5077: 5063: 5062: 5061: 5056: 5046: 5040: 5039: 5038: 5033: 5028: 5026:Doomsday Clock 5023: 5018: 5008: 5007: 5006: 4996: 4991: 4986: 4985: 4984: 4979: 4977:Cyberterrorism 4974: 4964: 4958: 4956: 4952: 4951: 4949: 4948: 4947: 4946: 4936: 4930: 4927: 4926: 4921: 4919: 4918: 4911: 4904: 4896: 4889: 4888:External links 4886: 4885: 4884: 4869:Wright, Ronald 4866: 4825: 4808: 4798: 4796:by the authors 4737: 4734: 4733: 4732: 4718: 4702: 4699: 4696: 4695: 4686: 4672: 4649: 4635: 4622:(4): 815–843. 4597: 4584: 4541:(4): 470–494. 4520: 4506: 4497: 4451: 4432: 4425: 4401: 4368: 4340: 4303:(7200): 34–5. 4280: 4262: 4243: 4220: 4194: 4169: 4162: 4144: 4124: 4059: 4045: 4031: 4024: 3999: 3985: 3962: 3949: 3897: 3884: 3855: 3822: 3810: 3779: 3748: 3711: 3704: 3683: 3654: 3636:Johnson, Ben. 3625: 3613: 3585: 3523: 3516: 3496: 3465: 3458: 3438: 3429: 3408: 3393: 3381: 3363: 3351: 3332: 3320: 3308: 3296: 3220: 3200: 3155: 3143: 3079: 3015: 2991: 2950: 2943: 2915: 2884: 2853: 2810: 2771:(12): e84814. 2751: 2701: 2689: 2667: 2641: 2612: 2590: 2557: 2530: 2501: 2438: 2412: 2409:. p. 242. 2394: 2379: 2364: 2345: 2319: 2291: 2259: 2200: 2154: 2119: 2073: 2072: 2070: 2067: 2064: 2063: 2046: 2013: 2000: 1986: 1985: 1983: 1980: 1979: 1978: 1973: 1968: 1963: 1958: 1952: 1951: 1947: 1946: 1941: 1939:State collapse 1936: 1931: 1926: 1921: 1919:Language death 1916: 1911: 1906: 1901: 1896: 1891: 1885: 1884: 1880: 1879: 1874: 1869: 1864: 1859: 1854: 1849: 1842: 1837: 1831: 1825: 1824: 1820: 1819: 1814: 1809: 1804: 1799: 1797:Millenarianism 1794: 1789: 1784: 1779: 1774: 1769: 1764: 1762:Apocalypticism 1758: 1757: 1754:Society portal 1743: 1740:History portal 1729: 1713: 1710: 1680: 1677: 1653:The historian 1538: 1535: 1530: 1529: 1526: 1523: 1520: 1507: 1504: 1503: 1502: 1501: 1500: 1483:House of Cards 1479: 1449: 1438:Joseph Tainter 1433: 1430: 1401:and ecologist 1390: 1387: 1338: 1335: 1318:Joseph Tainter 1313: 1310: 1300:'s society so 1286: 1283: 1246:Main article: 1243: 1240: 1213: 1212: 1119: 1117: 1110: 1094: 1091: 1073:jump to humans 1047:was caused by 1020:whooping cough 979:bubonic plague 854: 851: 839:Mount Tarawera 789:Battle of Xois 769: 766: 659:by the German 536: 533: 513:Little Ice Age 470:global warming 436: 433:sulfur dioxide 393:Main article: 382: 379: 351:overpopulation 339:nonlinearities 330: 327: 276: 273: 220:Joseph Tainter 216: 213: 139:mass migration 66: 59: 58: 57: 42: 35: 34: 33: 32: 31: 26: 24: 18:Societal decay 14: 13: 10: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 6476: 6465: 6462: 6460: 6457: 6455: 6452: 6450: 6447: 6445: 6442: 6440: 6437: 6436: 6434: 6424: 6419: 6414: 6412: 6407: 6402: 6400: 6390: 6386: 6371: 6368: 6366: 6365:Risk analysis 6363: 6361: 6358: 6356: 6353: 6351: 6348: 6347: 6340: 6338: 6337: 6332: 6326: 6325: 6322: 6316: 6313: 6311: 6310:Social crisis 6308: 6306: 6303: 6301: 6298: 6296: 6293: 6291: 6288: 6286: 6283: 6281: 6278: 6276: 6273: 6271: 6268: 6266: 6263: 6262: 6260: 6256: 6250: 6247: 6245: 6242: 6240: 6237: 6235: 6232: 6231: 6229: 6227:Organizations 6225: 6217: 6214: 6213: 6212: 6209: 6207: 6204: 6200: 6197: 6196: 6195: 6192: 6190: 6187: 6183: 6180: 6178: 6175: 6174: 6173: 6170: 6168: 6165: 6164: 6162: 6158: 6152: 6151:World to come 6149: 6147: 6144: 6140: 6137: 6135: 6132: 6131: 6130: 6127: 6125: 6122: 6120: 6117: 6113: 6110: 6108: 6105: 6103: 6100: 6099: 6098: 6097:Millennialism 6095: 6093: 6090: 6086: 6085:Messianic Age 6083: 6082: 6081: 6078: 6076: 6073: 6071: 6070:Gog and Magog 6068: 6066: 6063: 6061: 6060:Earth Changes 6058: 6056: 6053: 6051: 6048: 6046: 6043: 6041: 6038: 6036: 6033: 6031: 6028: 6026: 6023: 6022: 6020: 6016: 6008: 6005: 6004: 6003: 6000: 5998: 5995: 5989: 5986: 5984: 5981: 5979: 5976: 5975: 5974: 5971: 5967: 5964: 5962: 5959: 5957: 5954: 5952: 5949: 5947: 5944: 5942: 5939: 5937: 5934: 5932: 5929: 5928: 5927: 5924: 5920: 5917: 5915: 5912: 5908: 5905: 5904: 5903: 5900: 5898: 5897:New Jerusalem 5895: 5893: 5890: 5888: 5885: 5879: 5876: 5874: 5873:War in Heaven 5871: 5869: 5868:Two witnesses 5866: 5864: 5861: 5859: 5856: 5854: 5851: 5849: 5846: 5844: 5841: 5839: 5836: 5835: 5834: 5831: 5830: 5829: 5826: 5824: 5821: 5817: 5814: 5812: 5809: 5808: 5807: 5804: 5802: 5799: 5797: 5794: 5792: 5789: 5785: 5782: 5781: 5780: 5777: 5775: 5772: 5771: 5770: 5767: 5765: 5762: 5758: 5755: 5753: 5750: 5749: 5748: 5745: 5743: 5740: 5739: 5738: 5737:Second Coming 5735: 5733: 5730: 5726: 5723: 5721: 5718: 5717: 5716: 5713: 5709: 5706: 5704: 5701: 5700: 5699: 5696: 5695: 5693: 5691: 5687: 5681: 5678: 5676: 5673: 5671: 5668: 5666: 5663: 5661: 5658: 5654: 5651: 5649: 5646: 5642: 5639: 5638: 5637: 5634: 5632: 5629: 5627: 5624: 5623: 5622: 5619: 5617: 5614: 5612: 5609: 5607: 5604: 5602: 5599: 5597: 5594: 5592: 5589: 5587: 5584: 5582: 5579: 5577: 5574: 5572: 5569: 5568: 5566: 5562: 5552: 5549: 5547: 5544: 5542: 5539: 5537: 5534: 5532: 5529: 5527: 5524: 5522: 5519: 5515: 5512: 5510: 5507: 5505: 5502: 5501: 5500: 5497: 5493: 5490: 5488: 5485: 5484: 5483: 5480: 5479: 5477: 5473: 5467: 5464: 5462: 5459: 5457: 5454: 5452: 5449: 5447: 5444: 5442: 5439: 5438: 5436: 5434: 5430: 5427: 5423: 5411: 5408: 5407: 5406: 5403: 5401: 5398: 5397: 5395: 5393: 5389: 5383: 5380: 5378: 5375: 5373: 5370: 5366: 5363: 5362: 5361: 5358: 5356: 5353: 5351: 5348: 5346: 5343: 5341: 5338: 5336: 5333: 5331: 5328: 5326: 5323: 5319: 5316: 5314: 5311: 5310: 5309: 5306: 5304: 5301: 5299: 5296: 5294: 5291: 5289: 5286: 5284: 5281: 5279: 5276: 5274: 5271: 5269: 5266: 5264: 5261: 5259: 5256: 5252: 5249: 5248: 5247: 5244: 5242: 5239: 5237: 5236:Deforestation 5234: 5232: 5229: 5227: 5224: 5222: 5219: 5215: 5212: 5211: 5210: 5207: 5205: 5202: 5201: 5199: 5197: 5193: 5190: 5188: 5184: 5178: 5177:World War III 5175: 5173: 5170: 5166: 5163: 5161: 5158: 5156: 5153: 5152: 5151: 5148: 5146: 5143: 5141: 5138: 5136: 5133: 5129: 5126: 5124: 5121: 5120: 5119: 5116: 5114: 5111: 5109: 5106: 5105: 5103: 5099: 5093: 5092:Transhumanism 5090: 5086: 5083: 5081: 5078: 5076: 5073: 5072: 5071: 5067: 5064: 5060: 5057: 5055: 5052: 5051: 5050: 5047: 5044: 5041: 5037: 5034: 5032: 5029: 5027: 5024: 5022: 5019: 5017: 5014: 5013: 5012: 5009: 5005: 5002: 5001: 5000: 4997: 4995: 4992: 4990: 4987: 4983: 4980: 4978: 4975: 4973: 4970: 4969: 4968: 4965: 4963: 4960: 4959: 4957: 4955:Technological 4953: 4945: 4942: 4941: 4940: 4937: 4935: 4932: 4931: 4928: 4924: 4917: 4912: 4910: 4905: 4903: 4898: 4897: 4894: 4887: 4882: 4881:0-7867-1547-2 4878: 4874: 4870: 4867: 4862: 4857: 4853: 4849: 4845: 4841: 4840: 4835: 4831: 4826: 4823: 4819: 4815: 4814: 4809: 4806: 4802: 4799: 4795: 4791: 4784: 4780: 4775: 4770: 4766: 4762: 4758: 4754: 4753: 4748: 4744: 4740: 4739: 4735: 4729: 4725: 4721: 4715: 4711: 4710: 4705: 4704: 4700: 4690: 4687: 4675: 4673:0-913966-56-8 4669: 4664: 4663: 4653: 4650: 4645: 4639: 4636: 4630: 4625: 4621: 4617: 4613: 4606: 4604: 4602: 4598: 4594: 4588: 4585: 4580: 4574: 4566: 4562: 4557: 4552: 4548: 4544: 4540: 4536: 4532: 4524: 4521: 4518: 4513: 4511: 4507: 4501: 4498: 4492: 4487: 4483: 4479: 4475: 4471: 4470:Energy Policy 4467: 4460: 4458: 4456: 4452: 4448: 4444: 4441: 4436: 4433: 4428: 4426:0-521-38673-X 4422: 4418: 4414: 4408: 4406: 4402: 4396: 4391: 4387: 4383: 4379: 4372: 4369: 4357: 4353: 4347: 4345: 4341: 4336: 4332: 4328: 4324: 4319: 4314: 4310: 4306: 4302: 4298: 4294: 4287: 4285: 4281: 4276: 4272: 4266: 4263: 4259: 4255: 4252: 4247: 4244: 4240: 4236: 4232: 4229: 4224: 4221: 4208: 4204: 4198: 4195: 4183: 4182:sites.psu.edu 4179: 4173: 4170: 4165: 4163:9781610397216 4159: 4155: 4148: 4145: 4140: 4136: 4135: 4128: 4125: 4120: 4116: 4111: 4106: 4102: 4098: 4094: 4090: 4086: 4082: 4078: 4074: 4070: 4063: 4060: 4055: 4049: 4046: 4041: 4035: 4032: 4027: 4021: 4017: 4010: 4008: 4006: 4004: 4000: 3995: 3989: 3986: 3983: 3979: 3976: 3972: 3966: 3963: 3959: 3953: 3950: 3946: 3944: 3937: 3933: 3928: 3923: 3919: 3915: 3911: 3904: 3902: 3898: 3894: 3888: 3885: 3873: 3869: 3862: 3860: 3856: 3844: 3840: 3833: 3831: 3829: 3827: 3823: 3819: 3814: 3811: 3799: 3798: 3793: 3786: 3784: 3780: 3768: 3764: 3757: 3755: 3753: 3749: 3737: 3733: 3726: 3724: 3722: 3720: 3718: 3716: 3712: 3707: 3701: 3697: 3690: 3688: 3684: 3672: 3668: 3661: 3659: 3655: 3643: 3639: 3632: 3630: 3626: 3622: 3617: 3614: 3602: 3601: 3596: 3595:"Sea Peoples" 3589: 3586: 3581: 3577: 3572: 3567: 3562: 3557: 3553: 3549: 3545: 3538: 3536: 3534: 3532: 3530: 3528: 3524: 3519: 3517:0-87727-138-0 3513: 3509: 3508: 3500: 3497: 3484: 3480: 3476: 3469: 3466: 3461: 3455: 3451: 3450: 3442: 3439: 3433: 3430: 3425: 3421: 3420: 3412: 3409: 3405: 3400: 3398: 3394: 3390: 3385: 3382: 3379: 3375: 3372: 3367: 3364: 3360: 3355: 3352: 3348: 3344: 3341: 3336: 3333: 3329: 3324: 3321: 3317: 3312: 3309: 3305: 3300: 3297: 3292: 3288: 3283: 3278: 3274: 3270: 3266: 3262: 3258: 3254: 3249: 3244: 3240: 3236: 3232: 3224: 3221: 3216: 3215: 3210: 3204: 3201: 3196: 3192: 3187: 3182: 3178: 3174: 3170: 3168: 3159: 3156: 3152: 3147: 3144: 3139: 3135: 3130: 3125: 3120: 3115: 3111: 3107: 3103: 3099: 3095: 3088: 3086: 3084: 3080: 3075: 3071: 3067: 3063: 3058: 3053: 3048: 3043: 3039: 3035: 3031: 3024: 3022: 3020: 3016: 3010: 3006: 3002: 2995: 2992: 2986: 2981: 2977: 2973: 2969: 2965: 2964:Physics Today 2961: 2954: 2951: 2946: 2940: 2936: 2932: 2928: 2927: 2919: 2916: 2911: 2907: 2903: 2899: 2895: 2888: 2885: 2880: 2876: 2873:: T51D–1553. 2872: 2868: 2864: 2857: 2854: 2849: 2845: 2841: 2837: 2833: 2829: 2825: 2821: 2814: 2811: 2806: 2802: 2797: 2792: 2787: 2782: 2778: 2774: 2770: 2766: 2762: 2755: 2752: 2747: 2743: 2739: 2735: 2731: 2727: 2723: 2719: 2712: 2705: 2702: 2698: 2693: 2690: 2677: 2671: 2668: 2656: 2652: 2645: 2642: 2630: 2626: 2619: 2617: 2613: 2601: 2594: 2591: 2587: 2583: 2579: 2578:Penguin Books 2575: 2574: 2569: 2568:Jared Diamond 2564: 2562: 2558: 2553: 2549: 2545: 2541: 2534: 2531: 2519: 2515: 2511: 2510:Nuwer, Rachel 2505: 2502: 2497: 2493: 2488: 2483: 2478: 2473: 2469: 2465: 2461: 2457: 2453: 2449: 2442: 2439: 2427: 2423: 2416: 2413: 2408: 2401: 2399: 2395: 2390: 2383: 2380: 2375: 2368: 2365: 2359: 2352: 2350: 2346: 2334: 2330: 2323: 2320: 2308: 2307: 2302: 2295: 2292: 2287: 2286: 2285:New Scientist 2281: 2274: 2272: 2270: 2268: 2266: 2264: 2260: 2255: 2251: 2246: 2241: 2236: 2231: 2227: 2223: 2219: 2215: 2211: 2204: 2201: 2195: 2190: 2186: 2182: 2178: 2174: 2170: 2163: 2161: 2159: 2155: 2149: 2144: 2140: 2136: 2135: 2130: 2123: 2120: 2108: 2104: 2097: 2095: 2093: 2091: 2089: 2087: 2085: 2083: 2081: 2079: 2075: 2068: 2060: 2056: 2050: 2047: 2043: 2039: 2035: 2031: 2030:17th Parallel 2027: 2026:Bến Hải River 2023: 2017: 2014: 2010: 2004: 2001: 1997: 1991: 1988: 1981: 1977: 1974: 1972: 1969: 1967: 1964: 1962: 1959: 1957: 1954: 1953: 1949: 1948: 1945: 1942: 1940: 1937: 1935: 1932: 1930: 1927: 1925: 1924:Progress trap 1922: 1920: 1917: 1915: 1912: 1910: 1909:Fragile state 1907: 1905: 1902: 1900: 1897: 1895: 1892: 1890: 1887: 1886: 1882: 1881: 1878: 1875: 1873: 1870: 1868: 1865: 1863: 1860: 1858: 1855: 1853: 1850: 1848: 1847: 1843: 1841: 1840:Catastrophism 1838: 1835: 1832: 1830: 1827: 1826: 1822: 1821: 1818: 1815: 1813: 1810: 1808: 1805: 1803: 1800: 1798: 1795: 1793: 1790: 1788: 1785: 1783: 1780: 1778: 1777:Doomsday cult 1775: 1773: 1770: 1768: 1765: 1763: 1760: 1759: 1755: 1749: 1744: 1741: 1730: 1727: 1716: 1711: 1709: 1705: 1702: 1698: 1697:Peter Turchin 1693: 1691: 1687: 1678: 1676: 1674: 1670: 1669: 1664: 1660: 1656: 1651: 1649: 1645: 1644:transcendence 1641: 1637: 1633: 1628: 1626: 1622: 1618: 1614: 1610: 1606: 1599: 1596: 1590: 1588: 1583: 1581: 1580: 1575: 1571: 1567: 1563: 1557: 1555: 1554:civilizations 1550: 1546: 1545: 1534: 1527: 1524: 1521: 1518: 1517: 1516: 1512: 1499: 1498: 1496: 1492: 1488: 1484: 1480: 1477: 1473: 1469: 1465: 1461: 1458: 1454: 1453:Runaway Train 1450: 1447: 1443: 1442: 1441: 1439: 1436:According to 1431: 1429: 1426: 1422: 1418: 1416: 1410: 1408: 1404: 1400: 1395: 1388: 1386: 1384: 1383: 1377: 1375: 1371: 1366: 1364: 1363:self limiting 1360: 1352: 1348: 1343: 1336: 1334: 1332: 1327: 1323: 1319: 1311: 1309: 1303: 1299: 1298:Easter Island 1295: 1294:Jared Diamond 1291: 1284: 1278: 1274: 1272: 1267: 1263: 1258: 1256: 1249: 1241: 1239: 1236: 1232: 1230: 1225: 1222: 1219: 1209: 1206: 1198: 1187: 1184: 1180: 1177: 1173: 1170: 1166: 1163: 1159: 1156: – 1155: 1151: 1150:Find sources: 1144: 1140: 1136: 1130: 1129: 1125: 1120:This section 1118: 1114: 1109: 1108: 1104: 1100: 1092: 1090: 1087: 1083: 1078: 1074: 1068: 1066: 1061: 1056: 1054: 1050: 1046: 1042: 1037: 1033: 1029: 1025: 1021: 1017: 1007: 1003: 999: 996: 992: 988: 984: 980: 971: 967: 965: 960: 956: 952: 947: 945: 944: 939: 935: 931: 927: 923: 917: 915: 910: 906: 902: 898: 894: 890: 886: 882: 878: 873: 865: 860: 852: 850: 848: 844: 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