294:, but with an overall drying trend as a result of warming. Models indicate that the years 2000–2018 would have trended towards megadrought conditions regardless of climate change, with a predicted severity of the 11th worst period of drought since 800. However, anthropogenic warming pushed conditions into a severe megadrought. From 2000 to 2021, mean annual precipitation in the region was 8.3% below the 1950–1999 average and the temperature was 0.91 °C above average. The megadrought that began in 2000 was the driest 22-year period since at least 800 and, if it persists through 2022, will match the duration of the severe late-1500s megadrought. Both 2002 and 2021 were drier than any of the previous nearly 300 years and were, respectively, the 11th and 12th driest years between 800 and 2021.
35:
55:
20:
324:, 2018, and 2020- 2021. Precipitation in California is limited to a single, fairly short wet season, with the vast majority of rain and snowfall occurring in the winter months across the state. This delicate balance means that a dry rainy season can have lasting consequences. California is the most populous state and largest agricultural producer in the United States, and as such, drought in California can have a severe economic as well as environmental impact. The historical and ongoing droughts in California are caused by lack of
473:
87:
71:
425:
487:
79:
528:
enough water to meet regional demand. In 2003, Mexican ambassador
Alberto Szekely criticized what he saw as a focus on acts of political will to resolve water disputes and a failure to recognize that the fundamental issue was a lack of sufficient water and insufficient mechanisms for sustainable management through the IBWC. On 8 September 2020, thousands of Mexican farmers in Chihuahua, fearing for their own livelihoods, took control of the
1090:
1054:
301:, with some contribution from the lack of precipitation. The several wet years since 2000 were not sufficient to end the drought. Researchers calculated that without climate change-induced evaporation, the precipitation in 2005 would have broken the drought. While monsoon rains in the desert Southwest in mid-2021 and heavy rain and snow in
608:, which provides enough power for 400,000 homes. In 2023, the drought situation on the Colorado River remains dire. Some states that rely on the river for water supplies have been required by the US Bureau of Reclamation to reduce their annual allocations. Arizona saw the steepest cuts, losing nearly 20 percent of its annual allocation.
527:
basins between the two countries. However, the 1940s were a period of abnormally high precipitation; this built-in administrative deficit for subsequent years, coupled with a twentyfold increase in the population along the border, climate change, and aging water infrastructure means that there is not
463:
record, was the driest since at least the later sixteenth century. Some areas lost more than two years of moisture from their soils during this period. Recovery to pre-2012 soil moisture levels in the most affected areas was predicted to require several decades of average rainfall. Even without
374:
Later studies found that "destruction of tropical forests is disrupting the movement of water in the atmosphere, causing major shifts in precipitation that could lead to drought in key agricultural areas in China, India, and the U.S. Midwest. ” Those include the 3 main tropical rainforest:
370:
can strongly exacerbate drought conditions in the western states of the USA. According to the study "an Amazon stripped bare could mean 20 percent less rain for the coastal
Northwest and a 50 percent reduction in the Sierra Nevada snowpack, a crucial source of water for cities and farms in
647:
Peer-reviewed studies indicate that storing water in Lake Mead rather than in Lake Powell would yield a savings of 300,000 acre feet of water or more per year, leading to calls by environmentalists to drain Lake Powell and restore Glen Canyon to its natural, free-flowing
351:
was projected to increase 8.6 °F (4.8 °C) by 2100. The southern
Southwest could receive 45 additional days per year above 90 °F (32 °C). NCA4 noted that higher temperatures increased the probability of both droughts and megadroughts in the region.
1617:
332:, and drier air masses in the atmosphere. This leads to less water availability in the natural environment and in snowpack, rivers, and reservoirs for human use; these water shortages can have major impacts on agriculture and other water-intensive
289:
that began in 2000 was preceded by the wettest period in at least 1200 years. From 1980 to 1998, climate models begin projecting increased decadal precipitation swings in the SWNA starting in the latter half of the twentieth century as a result of
424:
805:
Nielsen-Gammon, John W.; Banner, Jay L.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Tremaine, Darrel M.; Wong, Corinne I.; Mace, Robert E.; Gao, Huilin; Yang, Zong-Liang; Gonzalez, Marisa Flores; Hoffpauir, Richard; Gooch, Tom; Kloesel, Kevin (August 2020).
1722:
1783:
1609:
218:
Megadroughts, a term used to describe periods of multidecadal drought, are a recurring feature of the North
American Southwest over the past millennium. For example, droughts lasting at least a decade occurred in
587:
stated that further cuts affecting the 40 million people who rely upon the
Colorado River for water were likely. It was anticipated that the cuts would prompt some farmers to increase pumping of limited
464:
increasing temperatures, predicted low precipitation would be sufficient to produce unprecedented dry conditions, but with higher temperatures could create megadroughts as not seen since medieval times.
711:
1524:
604:, the second largest artificial reservoir in the United States; the lower range of forecasts would result in a water level by the end of 2022 that would prohibit hydroelectric generation at the
1813:
1214:
404:
1714:
305:
in late 2021 had raised hope of ending the drought, January 2022 was characterized by record dry conditions across much of the West. Researchers noted that even in wet years in the
1753:
1644:
1493:
858:
Williams, A. Park; Cook, Edward R.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Bolles, Kasey; Baek, Seung H.; Badger, Andrew M.; Livneh, Ben (17 April 2020).
1775:
1417:
1386:
1462:
970:
906:
680:
239:
drier than any experienced in the 20th century: 863–884, 1130–1151, 1276–1297, and 1571–1592. The droughts of the twelfth and thirteenth centuries bracketed the
1586:
567:
for the first time in its history. This followed a forecast that, by the end of 2021, Lake Mead would be reduced to a level not seen since the building of the
163:
The southwestern region of North
America (SWNA) is defined as the areas between 30 and 40 degrees North and 105- and 125-degrees West, comprising areas within
1973:
940:
611:
A 2021 study noted that increased drought conditions were now inevitable for the region, but that the most extreme modeled effects can still be avoided by
516:
707:
1516:
1121:
431:
1155:
627:
to be published in 2023, called for "bold solutions that match the scale of the challenges," including agricultural water conservation, coastal water
1261:
383:, South-East Asia. 50% of the rain in the Midwest come from water evaporating from the land and the Amazon Rainforest probably providing part of it.
1805:
54:
27:
1206:
571:
in the 1930s. Lake Mead is one of the main reservoirs of the
Colorado River and the declaration triggers cuts to the water supply for farmers in
34:
1958:
252:
361:
1555:
412:
158:
1968:
344:
1745:
1640:
1948:
560:
280:
416:
1963:
1485:
808:"Unprecedented Drought Challenges for Texas Water Resources in a Changing Climate: What Do Researchers and Stakeholders Need to Know?"
596:, which provides hydroelectric power to up to 800,000 homes in California, was forced to shut down for the first time after waters at
340:
114:
that began in 2000. At least 24 years in length, the drought is the driest multi-decade period the region has seen since at least 800
1953:
1925:
1031:
408:
321:
1409:
1312:
1185:
1378:
1286:
548:
1610:"Climate change, drought are endangering hydropower production from Lake Powell. Is it time to 'balance the water budget'?"
1667:"Uncertainties, Limits, and Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation for Soil Moisture Drought in Southwestern North America"
1239:
396:
1440:
962:
859:
366:
In 2013 a group of scientists from the
Princeton University published a study suggesting that total deforestation of the
672:
19:
624:
448:
400:
1578:
532:
to stop
Mexican Federal authorities from releasing reservoir waters to the Rio Grande. Later that month, Texas Gov.
1834:
783:
459:
experienced dryness that was unprecedented in the instrumental record going back to 1896 and, when compared to the
348:
168:
146:
932:
616:
612:
131:
724:"Scientists are noticing that in the past 25 years the world seems to be getting more La Niñas than it used to…"
633:
620:
593:
452:
435:
276:
248:
188:
63:
1113:
600:
fell to 24% of capacity, a historic low. In
February 2022, the Bureau of Reclamation released projections for
1885:
1806:"A pipe dream, or a possibility? Water experts debate 1,500-mile aqueduct from Cajun Country to Lake Powell"
1147:
141:
meteorological events are generally associated with drier and hotter conditions and further exacerbation of
1932:
641:
to learn from the driest counties how to conserve water and start preparing for a drier and hotter future.
556:
392:
313:
142:
86:
555:
not to farm; while agriculture uses 76% of water withdrawals in the state, it makes up 3% of the state
472:
1665:
Cook, B. I.; Mankin, J. S.; Williams, A. P.; Marvel, K. D.; Smerdon, J. E.; Liu, H. (September 2021).
486:
70:
1678:
1350:
874:
819:
749:
260:
1859:
240:
180:
43:
1715:"Study: Dry Future Likely Unavoidable for Southwest, But Reducing Greenhouse Gases Can Still Help"
992:
Acuna-Soto, Rodolfo; Stahle, David W.; Cleaveland, Malcolm K.; Therrell, Matthew D. (April 2002).
1696:
1547:
1082:
898:
837:
775:
236:
208:
1074:
1023:
890:
767:
512:
376:
367:
320:, such as 1841, 1864, 1924, 1928–1935, 1947–1950, 1959–1960, 1976–1977, 1986–1992, 2006–2010,
244:
196:
172:
47:
309:
watershed, water from melting snows is soaked up by dry soils before it can reach the river.
149:. Meteorological scientists have observed that La Niñas have become more frequent over time.
1686:
1452:
1358:
1066:
1055:"Rapid intensification of the emerging southwestern North American megadrought in 2020–2021"
1013:
1005:
882:
827:
757:
703:
511:
The reduced water supplies along the Mexican-American border area have caused tensions. The
380:
224:
212:
78:
605:
536:
asked the Federal government to intervene to force the release of Mexican waters from the
529:
176:
164:
130:
models project drier conditions in the region through the end of the 21st century, though
95:
860:"Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought"
371:
California." Generally, the air in western USA from December to February will be drier.
1682:
1354:
993:
878:
823:
753:
1579:"California hydropower plant forced to shut down as water levels fall at Lake Oroville"
1447:. Presentations at the Eleventh Annual Conference: Water Law & White Collar Crime.
1262:"If a tree falls in Brazil…? Amazon deforestation could mean droughts for western U.S."
1018:
520:
329:
306:
291:
200:
127:
119:
1339:"Multicentury Evaluation of Recovery from Strong Precipitation Deficits in California"
736:
Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason E.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Seager, Richard (1 January 2015).
231:
and snow water equivalents back to 800 CE. This allowed the identification of 40 SWNA
1942:
1700:
1086:
902:
841:
597:
228:
204:
111:
59:
23:
1337:
Wahl, Eugene R.; Diaz, Henry F.; Vose, Russell S.; Gross, Wendy S. (1 August 2017).
1177:
1207:"A History of Drought in California: Learning From the Past, Looking to the Future"
628:
460:
256:
39:
38:
The drought that began in 1276 is hypothesized to have caused the abandonment of
652:
601:
589:
541:
537:
533:
298:
286:
107:
91:
1235:
1070:
1408:
Gerlak, Andrea K.; Varady, Robert Gabriel; Mumme, Stephen Paul (1 July 2021).
762:
638:
580:
568:
524:
492:
456:
439:
302:
138:
115:
1641:"Drought Map Shows Status of California Water Crisis as Newsom Adjusts Rules"
1363:
1338:
1238:. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC. 2018. pp. 1–470.
1078:
771:
90:
A typical dry lakebed is seen in California, which is experiencing its worst
1053:
Williams, A. Park; Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E. (14 February 2022).
886:
564:
552:
502:
264:
235:
events of at least 19-years duration. Of these, four megadroughts were 0.25
123:
1027:
1009:
894:
1148:"In a First, U.S. Declares Shortage on Colorado River, Forcing Water Cuts"
519:(IBWC) divides the waters of 450,000 square miles (1,200,000 km) the
297:
The drought is largely driven by temperature, which increases the rate of
1926:
Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on an Emerging North American Megadrought
1691:
1666:
832:
807:
676:
333:
325:
247:, with the thirteenth century drought coinciding with the abandonment of
184:
779:
737:
1746:"Opinion: What to do about the Colorado River's megadrought 'code red'"
1457:
1313:"Rivers in the Sky: How Deforestation Is Affecting Global Water Cycles"
572:
551:
took the unprecedented step of asking farmers along the Rio Grande and
317:
232:
1548:"New Mexico's Coming Megadrought Highlights Farmers' Control of Water"
673:"California is rationing water amid its worst drought in 1,200 years"
644:
Importation of water from the Missouri River has also been proposed.
576:
259:
region. The sixteenth century megadrought may be associated with the
192:
1114:"How Bad Is the Western Drought? Worst in 12 Centuries, Study Finds"
738:"Are Simulated Megadroughts in the North American Southwest Forced?"
16:
Ongoing megadrought in southwestern North America that began in 2000
1517:"Gov. Abbott: Mexico owes Texas a year's worth of Rio Grande water"
220:
85:
77:
69:
53:
33:
18:
1884:
Writer, Anna Skinner Senior; Assignment, General (2023-08-10).
1410:"'Megadrought' along border strains US-Mexico water relations"
1379:"California Dryness and Recovery Challenge Multi-Century Odds"
1236:"Fourth National Climate Assessment - Chapter 25: Southwest"
631:, technology innovations, and sustainable water management.
1912:
1004:(8). Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: 360–362.
708:"Weather's unwanted guest: Nasty La Niña keeps popping up"
1287:"Amazon deforestation could cause droughts in California"
653:
Lake Powell § 21st century drought and push to drain
619:
to the drier conditions will be needed. Dave D. White of
438:
on the Rio Grande, the largest reservoir in the state of
223:
in each century of the past millennium. Researchers used
1918:
1486:"Mexico's water crisis heats up as transfer to US looms"
623:, the lead author of the Southwest Chapter of the Fifth
853:
851:
145:
and the Southwestern United States and to some extent
1913:
National Integrated Drought Information System (NDIS)
1441:"Mexico's Response to Problems under the 1944 Treaty"
1383:
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
583:. Without an alleviation of the drought conditions,
343:(NCA4) noted that, under the worst-case scenario of
118:. The megadrought has prompted the declaration of a
1933:
Coping With Megadrought in the Colorado River Basin
405:
2010–2013 Southern United States and Mexico drought
62:changes at the end of the 21st century under three
994:"Megadrought and Megadeath in 16th Century Mexico"
963:"Peoples of Mesa Verde - Pueblo II: The Chaco Era"
30:, fell to a record 24% of capacity in summer 2021.
1577:Meeks, Alexandra; Andone, Dakin (6 August 2021).
187:to the northeast. This area includes much of the
1886:"Inside a plan to completely drain Lake Powell"
1141:
1139:
933:"Worst Megadroughts in 1,000 Years Threaten US"
505:indicates the drop from historical water levels
126:, the largest reservoir in the United States.
8:
1860:"Push to drain Lake Powell gaining momentum"
517:International Boundary and Water Commission
347:8.5, the annual average temperature of the
171:. This area is roughly bounded by central
1776:"It's not a drought — it's a megadrought"
1690:
1456:
1362:
1017:
831:
761:
356:Deforestation in the Tropical Rainforests
183:coast to the northwest, and northcentral
175:to the southeast, the northwest coast of
1515:Villagran, Lauren (18 September 2020).
663:
549:New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission
104:southwestern North American megadrought
973:from the original on 24 September 2021
714:from the original on February 27, 2023
1786:from the original on 21 February 2022
1756:from the original on 29 December 2021
1725:from the original on 20 February 2022
1620:from the original on 23 February 2022
1589:from the original on 21 February 2022
1558:from the original on 21 February 2022
1527:from the original on 20 February 2022
1496:from the original on 20 February 2022
1465:from the original on 20 February 2022
1420:from the original on 20 February 2022
1389:from the original on 20 February 2022
1158:from the original on 15 February 2022
1124:from the original on 17 February 2022
1093:from the original on 15 February 2022
1034:from the original on 20 February 2022
943:from the original on 21 February 2022
912:from the original on 15 February 2022
786:from the original on 16 February 2022
683:from the original on January 13, 2023
362:Deforestation of tropical rainforests
7:
1112:Fountain, Henry (14 February 2022).
134:may avoid the most extreme impacts.
1974:Climate change in the United States
561:United States Bureau of Reclamation
281:Climate change in the United States
1146:Fountain, Henry (16 August 2021).
341:Fourth National Climate Assessment
14:
1744:White, Dave D. (18 August 2021).
1608:Podmore, Zak (23 February 2022).
1439:Szekely, Alberto (1 March 2003).
967:Crow Canyon Archaeological Center
931:Oskin, Becky (12 February 2015).
540:that would be used by farmers in
94:in 1,200 years, and is therefore
74:Drought area in the United States
1921:of the Desert Research Institute
1445:United States-Mexico Law Journal
485:
471:
423:
413:2012–2013 North American drought
215:, which is largely high desert.
159:2020–2023 North American drought
1919:Western Regional Climate Center
1816:from the original on 2023-08-04
1647:from the original on 2023-10-31
1484:Wilson, Eoin (8 October 2020).
1242:from the original on 2022-03-05
1217:from the original on 2017-04-29
1188:from the original on 2020-04-25
706:science writer (May 28, 2022).
255:, and other settlements in the
1935:," NDIS webinar on 27 May 2020
1928:," NDIS webinar on 13 May 2020
671:Irina Ivanova (June 2, 2022).
592:supplies. In August 2021, the
417:2020–22 North American drought
110:in the southwestern region of
46:settlements at the end of the
1:
1959:Droughts in the United States
1546:Nelson, Cody (8 March 2021).
563:declared a water shortage at
397:Droughts in the United States
998:Emerging Infectious Diseases
515:that is administered by the
409:2011–2017 California drought
1969:Natural disasters in Mexico
1835:"The Future of Lake Powell"
1719:NOAA Climate Program Office
625:National Climate Assessment
401:2002 North American drought
330:higher average temperatures
1990:
1949:Southwestern United States
1178:"California | Drought.gov"
1071:10.1038/s41558-022-01290-z
650:
390:
359:
349:Southwestern United States
274:
191:, which contains the four
169:Southwestern United States
156:
147:Southeastern United States
82:Drought area in California
1964:Droughts in North America
763:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00071.1
617:climate change adaptation
613:climate change mitigation
501:The "bathtub ring" along
132:climate change mitigation
1954:Basin and Range Province
1364:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0423.1
634:The Santa Fe New Mexican
621:Arizona State University
594:Edward Hyatt Power Plant
478:Boat showing scale, 2010
436:Elephant Butte Reservoir
277:Climate change in Mexico
261:1576 cocoliztli epidemic
189:Basin and Range Province
64:greenhouse gas emissions
887:10.1126/science.aaz9600
447:From 2012 to 2015, the
28:reservoir in California
1639:SKINNER, ANNA (2023).
1010:10.3201/eid0804.010175
559:. In August 2021, the
393:Droughts in California
227:to reconstruct summer
225:tree ring chronologies
195:on the continent: the
179:to the southwest, the
143:droughts in California
99:
83:
75:
67:
51:
31:
1059:Nature Climate Change
360:Further information:
316:has experienced many
157:Further information:
89:
81:
73:
57:
37:
26:, the second-largest
22:
1782:. 15 February 2022.
1780:Santa Fe New Mexican
1721:. 8 September 2021.
1692:10.1029/2021EF002014
1317:Yale Environment 360
1265:Princeton University
833:10.1029/2020EF001552
312:Throughout history,
137:Furthermore, global
1683:2021EaFut...902014C
1355:2017JCli...30.6053W
879:2020Sci...368..314W
824:2020EaFut...801552N
754:2015JCli...28..124C
547:In March 2021, the
495:intake towers, 2021
241:Ancestral Puebloans
237:standard deviations
181:Northern California
44:Ancestral Puebloans
1839:Grand Canyon Trust
1552:capitalandmain.com
1458:10.25922/4gwv-bs12
1343:Journal of Climate
1285:A. Butler, Rhett.
1152:The New York Times
1118:The New York Times
742:Journal of Climate
585:The New York Times
434:"Bathtub ring" at
209:Great Basin Desert
100:
84:
76:
68:
52:
32:
1614:Salt Lake Tribune
1490:www.aljazeera.com
1385:. 10 April 2017.
1349:(15): 6053–6063.
873:(6488): 314–318.
702:Seth Borenstein,
513:1944 water treaty
368:Amazon rainforest
245:Pueblo III Period
211:, as well as the
197:Chihuahuan Desert
48:Pueblo III Period
1981:
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1414:The Conversation
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721:
719:
704:Associated Press
699:
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213:Colorado Plateau
1989:
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1750:Washington Post
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1893:. Retrieved
1889:
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1868:. Retrieved
1866:. 2023-09-19
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1843:. Retrieved
1841:. 2015-09-04
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253:Chaco Canyon
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1128:20 February
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1038:20 February
977:23 February
947:21 February
916:20 February
790:20 February
637:called for
615:. However,
602:Lake Powell
590:groundwater
542:South Texas
538:Rio Conchos
534:Greg Abbott
453:South Coast
299:evaporation
287:megadrought
108:megadrought
92:megadrought
1943:Categories
1895:2024-02-24
1870:2024-02-24
1845:2024-02-24
1820:2023-08-04
1651:2023-11-02
1246:2022-02-20
1221:2017-05-03
1211:Civil Eats
1192:2020-04-22
658:References
651:See also:
639:New Mexico
581:New Mexico
569:Hoover Dam
525:Rio Grande
493:Hoover Dam
457:California
440:New Mexico
391:See also:
314:California
303:California
275:See also:
249:Mesa Verde
207:, and the
153:Background
42:and other
1810:USA TODAY
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1451:: 49–51.
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1296:4 January
1270:4 January
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1079:1758-678X
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565:Lake Mead
553:Rio Chama
503:Lake Mead
339:The 2017
334:land uses
322:2011–2017
265:New Spain
173:Chihuahua
124:Lake Mead
66:scenarios
1890:Newsweek
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1784:Archived
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1122:Archived
1091:Archived
1032:Archived
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971:Archived
969:. 2014.
941:Archived
907:Archived
895:32299953
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780:26194662
712:Archived
681:Archived
677:CBS News
326:rainfall
318:droughts
185:Colorado
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1679:Bibcode
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867:Science
820:Bibcode
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139:La Niña
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