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candidates are subtracted and the smaller the difference is, the more likely that the person is a swing voter. The answers are indicative of the voters voting behavior and their ideological identification. The ANES also shows about the relationship between scale position and “convertibility”—the likelihood that a campaign can change a person’s vote intention. This method of measurement is also a good indication of how polarized the public already is. For example, in 2004, only 13% of the voters were considered swing voters which is lower compared to previous elections.
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likely to have a college degree (44 percent) than voters overall in these states (48 percent). By contrast, race was a significant determinant, especially for
African-Americans. While 7 percent of poll respondents identified as African-American, only 2 percent of swing voters were African-American. Latinos (12 percent of poll respondents) were represented more proportionately (13 percent of swing voters).
770:"Overall, white voters are likely to swing the outcome of a national election by an average of 10 percentage points—voting more Democratic in elections Democrats win and more Republican in elections Republicans win," according to a 2008 report by the Democratic Leadership Council. Most of this (6.7 of the 10 percentage points) is due to those white people who have only a high school education.
43:
674:. Swing/Battleground states are states that neither party can guarantee will go in their favor. These are the states that politicians will most likely focus their time to maximize their reach, in the same way that there is a focus on swing voters. It is crucial to note that identifying battleground states is much easier than identifying individual swing votes.
777:
Among people who identify as gay and bisexual, men's support for
Democratic candidates in the 1990s Congressional elections (held every two years from 1990 to 1998) was more consistent than women's. Across these five elections, men's support ranged from 67 percent to 75 percent, while women's support
791:
were "decided voters". In the oldest age group of 65 and older, only 22 percent are considered swing voters. Another important datapoint from the 2020 election was that 39% of Swing Voters say they are paying "a lot" of attention to politics, compared to the 68% of decided voters that pay attention.
790:
also plays a part in identifying swing voters. 24 percent of swing voters did not vote in the 2016 election and 22 percent did not vote in the 2018 election. 18-29 year olds were the age group that had the highest percentage of swing voters - there was about the same number of swing voters as there
773:
In mid-term and presidential elections from 1992 to 2014, people who self-identified as "gay, lesbian, or bisexual" voted consistently "around 75 percent
Democratic within a range of 67 to 81 percent." In the 2016 presidential election, people who identified as gay, lesbian, bisexual or transgender
782:
and bisexual women may be more likely swing voters, at least over time, if not necessarily for any given election. There are also differences by state: "California GLB voters are more likely to identify as 'Independent' than are GLB voters nationally, and therefore have a greater potential to play
766:
An April 2016 poll by the
Progressive Policy Institute examined voters in the U.S. states considered "battlegrounds" in the upcoming presidential election (Florida, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada). Swing voters were slightly more likely to be women (52 percent women, 48 percent men) and slightly less
666:
particularly significant when considering where political parties choose to focus their campaigning efforts. The voters who can be convinced are the voters that receive the most attention because campaigns will not bother to engage the voters they know will show up to the polls and support them.
682:
Deciding who is a swing voter can be calculated by measuring how a voter feels about each of the candidates. The
American National Election Studies (ANES) created a scale by asking how favorably they see each candidate from negative 100 to 100, with zero as neutral. Then, the two scores for the
665:
Swing Vote can have a very broad meaning and has been used in many different contexts by different media and news outlets. The truest definition would be someone who has not yet made up their mind on how they will be voting. These voters can be easily persuaded and are cross pressured. This is
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candidates take potential votes away from the major candidates. Ventura was a third-party candidate; his opponents were seen as two weak major-party candidates, and this situation created many more swing voters than usual. This resulted in Jesse
Ventura, the third-party candidate, winning the
741:." Because the votes of swing voters are considered to be "up for grabs," candidates direct a fair proportion of campaign effort towards them, but they must also be concerned with voter turnout among their political base. There is a perception that swing voters are primarily motivated by
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While the swing voter is ostensibly the target of most political activity during elections, another factor is the success of each party in rallying its core support. In a two-party system, those who become disillusioned with their once-favored party are more likely to vote
657:, can also have swing voters. The smaller the group, the more power swing voters can have. For example, on a court of seven judges, of which three are committed to each side of a case, the seventh judge may be seen as single-handedly deciding the case.
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Focusing only on the undecided voters instead of all voters at large is a core part of almost all political campaigns. With this framework in mind, the idea of a swing vote can closely tie with the concept of
714:, or they could be officially registered as "independents" or simply people who have never had a strong affiliation with any political party and will vote depending on certain things that influence them:
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to a particular candidate and will not consider changing their minds whatever the opposition says. Swing voters are undecided about how they will vote. They are sometimes referred to as
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In the 2020 election, 30% of voters were considered swing voters. The swing votes in this election demographically were younger, ideologically moderate, disengaged in politics.
601:, may go to either of the two dominant political parties. Such votes are usually sought after in election campaigns, since they can play a big role in determining the outcome.
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871:, Linda Killian divides the American swing vote into 4 factions: NPR Republicans, America First Democrats, the Facebook Generation, and Starbucks Moms and Dads. On the
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the swing justice, if one exists, essentially decides the overall outcome of the ruling during a split, which can mean highly impacting
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Swing voters occasionally play a huge part in elections. First-time voters and swing voters are usually credited for helping
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have been described as swing votes between the two factions of the court. In the United
Kingdom, the "
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is a vote that is seen as potentially going to any of a number of candidates in an election, or, in a
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Gelman, Andrew; Goel, Sharad; Rivers, Douglas; Rothschild, David (2016). "The mythical swing voter".
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Mayer, William (January 2008). "one What
Exactly Is a Swing Voter? Definition and Measurement".
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1306:"Out and Voting II: The Gay, Lesbian, and Bisexual Vote in Congressional Elections, 1990-1998"
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If a constituency contains a large proportion of swing voters it is often called a
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cast 78 percent of their votes for the
Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.
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1283:"Just 14 percent of LGBT people voted for Donald Trump, exit poll reveals"
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620:(Independent) or who will vote across party lines. In USA politics, many
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1227:"Who Are The Swing Voters?: Key Groups that Decide National Elections"
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rather than values or ideology and so are particularly susceptible to
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in the 1980s) and "Clinton
Conservatives" (Republicans who voted for
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1338:"Data Note: A Look At Swing Voters Leading Up To The 2020 Election"
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The Policy Institute of the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force
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deal primarily with the United States and do not represent a
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Swing Voting: Understanding Late Deciders in Late Modernity
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Smaller groups that use voting to decide matters, such as
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gubernatorial election in 1998. Swing voters who support
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ranged from 53 percent to 82 percent. This suggests that
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Weisberg, Herbert F.; Rusk, Jerrold G. (December 1970).
737:. Some, but not all, swing voters are considered to be "
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1053:"Retrospective Voting in American National Elections"
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and extensive campaign resources are poured into it.
911:" are examples of personifications of swing voters.
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Some might be people who have never exercised their
1178:"Swing Voters In Swing States Hold Balance In 2016"
978:The Swing Vote: The Untapped Power of Independents
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30:"Swing Vote" redirects here. For other uses, see
1232:. Democratic Leadership Council. Archived from
783:the role of a swing vote in a close election."
823:. For example, the effective decision of the
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153:The examples and perspective in this article
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1225:From, Al; Lynch, Victoria (September 2008).
616:who may not be affiliated with a particular
71:Learn how and when to remove these messages
1367:Political terminology of the United States
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1336:Cook, Charlie; Walter, Amy (2019-09-05).
1204:"US Elections: Who are the swing voters?"
1051:Eulau, Heinz; Fiorina, Morris P. (1981).
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849:Common examples of swing voters include "
209:Learn how and when to remove this message
191:Learn how and when to remove this message
128:Learn how and when to remove this message
91:This article includes a list of general
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1000:Quarterly Journal of Political Science
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1260:"Can the GLB Vote Swing an Election?"
762:Demographics within the United States
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1108:"Dimensions of Candidate Evaluation"
733:before, such as those just reaching
1258:Fenwick, Wendy (2 September 2016).
873:Supreme Court of the United States
97:it lacks sufficient corresponding
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1202:Sim, Melissa (3 September 2016).
1112:American Political Science Review
52:This article has multiple issues.
982:. New York: St. Martin's Press.
867:in the 1990s). In her 2012 book
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1281:Duffy, Nick (9 November 2016).
831:was ultimately made by Justice
60:or discuss these issues on the
1262:. The Gay & Lesbian Review
1183:. Progressive Policy Institute
825:President of the United States
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959:. Cresskill: Hampton Press.
815:In the Supreme Court of the
646:or abstain than cross over.
1377:Voting in the United States
1057:Political Science Quarterly
853:" (Democrats who voted for
413:Right to stand for election
167:, discuss the issue on the
32:Swing Vote (disambiguation)
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678:Calculating a swing voter
1176:Brodnitz, Peter (2016).
974:Killian, Linda (2012).
953:Dalton, Philip (2006).
112:more precise citations.
739:low-information voters
651:chambers of parliament
479:Next general elections
875:, Associate Justices
661:Impact on campaigning
363:Boundary delimitation
1239:on November 12, 2020
1163:Journalists Resource
1023:10.1561/100.00015031
895:, and Chief Justice
464:Elections by country
173:create a new article
165:improve this article
1206:. The Straits Times
889:Sandra Day O'Connor
885:Lewis F. Powell Jr.
557:Politics portal
1304:Bailey, Robert W.
821:landmark decisions
989:978-0-312-58177-0
941:Independent voter
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1345:. Retrieved
1341:
1316:. Retrieved
1312:
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1287:. Retrieved
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1264:. Retrieved
1253:
1241:. Retrieved
1234:the original
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305:Proportional
224:Part of the
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1285:. Pink News
936:Swing state
881:Byron White
809:third-party
644:third-party
629:Republicans
606:swing voter
474:Most recent
358:Competition
337:Terminology
256:By-election
250:Basic types
110:introducing
1361:Categories
1347:2020-12-02
1318:21 January
1289:21 January
1266:21 January
1243:21 January
1210:21 January
1187:21 January
1063:(4): 671.
1039:References
855:Republican
812:election.
735:voting age
716:healthcare
697:undecideds
595:swing vote
523:by country
519:Referendum
398:Psephology
393:Initiative
275:Fixed-term
93:references
57:improve it
1372:Elections
1148:147658219
1132:0003-0554
1093:154631055
1077:0032-3195
1014:1406.7581
901:Essex man
805:Minnesota
636:Democrats
622:centrists
425:Subseries
320:Sortition
295:Plurality
261:Corporate
233:Elections
169:talk page
63:talk page
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