301:
223:
Counterfactual history distinguishes itself through its interest in the very incident that is being negated by the counterfactual, thus seeking to evaluate the event's relative historical importance. Historians produce arguments subsequent changes in history, outlining each in broad terms only, since
126:
applied quantitative methods to imagine the U.S. economy of 1890 had there been no railroads. That in the absence of the railroad in the U.S., the great system of canals would have been expanded and the roads would have been paved and improved into a reliable transport system; both improvements would
238:
The line is sometimes blurred as historians may invent more detailed timelines as illustrations of their ideas about the types of changes that might have occurred. But it is usually clear what general types of consequences the author thinks are reasonable to suppose would have been likely to occur,
167:
Some scholars argue that a counterfactual is not as much a matter of what happened in the past but it is the disagreement about which past events were most significant. For example, William
Thompson employs a sequence of counterfactuals for eight lead economies that have driven
265:
in history contain implicit counterfactual claims—for example, the claim that a certain military decision helped a country win a war presumes that if that decision had not been made, the war would have been less likely to be won, or would have been longer.
227:
An alternate history writer, on the other hand, is interested precisely in the hypothetical scenarios that flow from the negated incident or event. A fiction writer is thus free to invent very specific events and characters in the imagined history.
914:
260:
Most historians regard counterfactual history as perhaps entertaining, but not meeting the standards of mainstream historical research due to its speculative nature. Advocates of counterfactual history often respond that all statements about
127:
have diminished the social and economic importance of the railroad, because “the level of per capita income achieved by
January 1, 1890 would have been reached by March 31, 1890, if railroads had never been invented.”
269:
Since counterfactual history is such a recent development, a serious, systematic critique of its uses and methodologies has yet to be made, as the movement itself is still working out those methods and frameworks.
73:. Counterfactual history seeks by "conjecturing on what did not happen, or what might have happened, in order to understand what did happen." It has produced a literary genre which is variously called
718:
156:, and to put forward a case for the importance of contingency in history, theorizing that a few key changes could result in a significantly different modern world. A series of
446:
204:, and claims that each actor in succession played an unusually critical role in creating a structure of leadership that became increasingly global in scope across time.
164:
presented dozens of essays by historians or prominent writers about "how a slight turn of fate at a decisive moment could have changed the very annals of time."
111:—fictional reinterpretations of historical events—because the narrative tone tends to whimsy, and offers neither historical analysis nor the logic behind such
553:"Project 2001: Significant Works in Twentieth-Century Economic History Railroads and American Economic Growth: Essays in Econometric History [Review]"
728:
252:
has a character talking of historians' use of counterfactuals, within the novel's alternate history. He dismisses this as "a useless exercise".
1038:
1015:
981:
951:
928:
900:
825:
797:
761:
701:
523:
1032:
148:. Ferguson has become a significant advocate of counterfactual history, using counterfactual scenarios to illustrate his objections to
874:
633:
852:
562:
423:
606:
456:
527:
31:
1047:
362:
552:
273:
Aviezer Tucker has offered a range of criticism of this approach to the study of the past both in his review of
Ferguson's
577:
1088:
1083:
1007:
582:
557:
130:
Few further attempts to bring counterfactual history into the world of academia were made until the 1991 publication of
91:
999:
235:
did not happen?"; whereas an alternate history writer would focus on a possible series of events arising therefrom.
1073:
1068:
973:
970:
Counterfactual
Thought Experiments in World Politics : Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives
920:
693:
442:
248:
320:
144:(1997), a collection of essays exploring different scenarios by a number of historians, edited by the historian
405:
943:
607:"The Lead Economy Sequence in World Politics (From Sung China to the United States): Selected Counterfactuals"
479:
1078:
687:
484:
1035:(archived link)—Academic discussion of counterfactuals in history, and suggested ground rules for their use
836:
753:
723:
213:
149:
844:
811:
243:
100:
785:
What If? : The World's
Foremost Military Historians Imagine What Might Have Been : Essays
232:
78:
783:
659:
531:
451:
415:
387:
331:
157:
46:
239:
and what specific details are included in an imagined timeline only for illustrative purposes.
1011:
995:
977:
947:
924:
910:
896:
892:
870:
848:
821:
793:
767:
757:
697:
519:
501:
419:
379:
217:
137:
108:
96:
74:
42:
862:
668:
657:
Tucker, Aviezer (May 1999). "Historiographical
Counterfactuals and Historical Contingency".
493:
371:
282:
140:, who carefully explored three different counterfactual scenarios. This work helped inspire
132:
643:
409:
1053:
70:
916:
Plausible Worlds : Possibility and
Understanding in History and the Social Sciences
991:
961:
884:
548:
306:
197:
145:
60:
1062:
817:
807:
789:
779:
638:
618:
591:
201:
169:
161:
38:
813:
What If? 2, subtitled More What If?: Eminent
Historians Imagine What Might Have Been
1042:
965:
353:
314:
173:
123:
133:
Plausible Worlds: Possibility and
Understanding in History and the Social Sciences
193:
17:
391:
296:
505:
497:
383:
357:
771:
672:
634:"Kim Stanley Robinson: The Years of Rice and Salt – an infinity plus review"
262:
65:
747:
189:
1004:
Unmaking the West : "What-If?" Scenarios That
Rewrite World History
749:
Revisioning the Civil War : Historians on Counter-Factual Scenarios
95:(1931) which features "If Lee Had Not Won the Battle at Gettysburg", by
326:
153:
224:
the main focus is on the importance and impact of the negated event.
181:
120:
Railroads and American Economic Growth: Essays in Econometric History
103:(1863). As a text of counterfactual histories written by historians,
375:
185:
177:
841:
A Past of Possibilities : A History of What Could Have Been
719:"Altered Pasts: Counterfactuals in History, by Richard J. Evans"
231:
An example of a counterfactual question would be: "What if the
1033:
Counterfactual Thought Experiments: A Necessary Research Tool
940:
The Confederate States of America : What Might Have Been
480:"'What If?' and Beyond: Counterfactual History in Literature"
689:
Our Knowledge of the Past: A Philosophy of Historiography
279:
Our Knowledge of the Past: A Philosophy of Historiography
889:
Virtual History : Alternatives and Counterfactuals
843:. Translated by Sawyer, Stephen W. New Haven, CT:
242:The line is further blurred by novelists such as
142:Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals
867:Altered Pasts : Counterfactuals in History
99:, about a fictional Confederate victory at the
27:Study of historical events that never happened
524:"If Lee Had Not Won the Battle of Gettysburg"
447:"Making books: The 'What Ifs' that fascinate"
89:An early book of counterfactual histories is
8:
172:processes for almost a thousand years. From
869:. Waltham, MA: Brandeis University Press.
81:, allohistory, and hypothetical history.
543:
541:
437:
435:
358:"Counterfactual History: A User's Guide"
345:
1039:Counterfactual History: A User's Guide
275:Virtual History in History and Theory
7:
576:Smoler, Frederic (September 1999).
632:Brooke, Keith (16 February 2002).
212:Counterfactual history is neither
208:Differences from alternate history
25:
1054:The Counterfactual History Review
746:Bresnahan, James C., ed. (2006).
605:Thompson, William R. (May 2010).
150:deterministic theories of history
611:Journal of Globalization Studies
478:Singles, Kathleen (2011-06-01).
299:
246:, whose alternate-history novel
32:Counterfactual (disambiguation)
1048:The American Historical Review
717:Shook, Karen (27 March 2014).
408:; MacRaild, Donald M. (2007).
363:The American Historical Review
1:
136:by the Cambridge sociologist
1008:University of Michigan Press
558:Economic History Association
105:If It Had Happened Otherwise
92:If It Had Happened Otherwise
63:that attempts to answer the
1105:
974:Princeton University Press
942:(1st ed.). New York:
921:Cambridge University Press
694:Cambridge University Press
249:The Years of Rice and Salt
69:questions that arise from
36:
29:
944:W.W. Norton & Company
938:Ransom, Roger L. (2005).
71:counterfactual conditions
686:Tucker, Aviezer (2004).
37:Not to be confused with
754:McFarland & Company
673:10.1111/0018-2656.00090
485:The Cambridge Quarterly
724:Times Higher Education
498:10.1093/camqtly/bfr007
321:Stalin's Missed Chance
214:historical revisionism
53:Counterfactual history
845:Yale University Press
445:(December 21, 2000).
1041:(archived link), by
837:Singaravélou, Pierre
835:Deluermoz, Quentin;
731:on 27 February 2022.
565:on 28 February 2006.
528:The Churchill Centre
244:Kim Stanley Robinson
101:Battle of Gettysburg
30:For other uses, see
1089:Thought experiments
1084:Theories of history
621:on 28 October 2021.
617:(1). Archived from
590:(5). Archived from
534:on January 5, 2009.
233:Pearl Harbor attack
109:alternative history
79:speculative history
992:Tetlock, Philip E.
962:Tetlock, Philip E.
911:Hawthorn, Geoffrey
660:History and Theory
520:Churchill, Winston
452:The New York Times
416:Palgrave Macmillan
107:contains works of
47:Historical fiction
1074:Fields of history
1069:Alternate history
1017:978-0-472-11543-3
1006:. Ann Arbor, MI:
996:Lebow, Richard N.
983:978-0-691-02792-0
972:. Princeton, NJ:
953:978-0-393-05967-0
930:978-0-521-40359-7
902:978-0-330-35132-4
863:Evans, Richard J.
827:978-0-425-18613-8
799:978-0-425-17642-9
763:978-0-7864-2392-7
752:. Jefferson, NC:
703:978-0-521-83415-5
583:American Heritage
218:alternate history
138:Geoffrey Hawthorn
97:Winston Churchill
75:alternate history
43:Alternate history
16:(Redirected from
1096:
1021:
1000:Parker, Geoffrey
987:
957:
934:
906:
880:
858:
831:
803:
775:
733:
732:
727:. Archived from
714:
708:
707:
683:
677:
676:
654:
648:
647:
646:on 3 April 2022.
642:. Archived from
629:
623:
622:
602:
596:
595:
573:
567:
566:
561:. Archived from
545:
536:
535:
530:. Archived from
516:
510:
509:
475:
469:
468:
466:
464:
455:. Archived from
439:
430:
429:
414:(3rd ed.).
411:Studying History
402:
396:
395:
350:
309:
304:
303:
302:
283:Richard J. Evans
277:and in his book
160:books edited by
21:
1104:
1103:
1099:
1098:
1097:
1095:
1094:
1093:
1059:
1058:
1029:
1024:
1018:
1002:, eds. (2006).
990:
984:
968:, eds. (1996).
960:
954:
937:
931:
909:
903:
885:Ferguson, Niall
883:
877:
861:
855:
834:
828:
806:
800:
778:
764:
745:
741:
739:Further reading
736:
716:
715:
711:
704:
685:
684:
680:
656:
655:
651:
631:
630:
626:
604:
603:
599:
575:
574:
570:
551:(1 July 2000).
549:Davis, Lance E.
547:
546:
539:
518:
517:
513:
477:
476:
472:
462:
460:
459:on 3 April 2022
441:
440:
433:
426:
418:. p. 125.
404:
403:
399:
352:
351:
347:
343:
305:
300:
298:
295:
258:
210:
87:
59:) is a form of
57:virtual history
50:
35:
28:
23:
22:
18:Virtual history
15:
12:
11:
5:
1102:
1100:
1092:
1091:
1086:
1081:
1079:Historiography
1076:
1071:
1061:
1060:
1057:
1056:
1051:
1036:
1028:
1027:External links
1025:
1023:
1022:
1016:
988:
982:
958:
952:
935:
929:
907:
901:
881:
876:978-1611685381
875:
859:
853:
832:
826:
810:, ed. (2001).
808:Cowley, Robert
804:
798:
782:, ed. (1999).
780:Cowley, Robert
776:
762:
742:
740:
737:
735:
734:
709:
702:
678:
667:(2): 264–276.
649:
624:
597:
594:on 4 May 2022.
568:
537:
511:
492:(2): 180–188.
470:
443:Arnold, Martin
431:
424:
397:
392:10.1086/530560
376:10.1086/530560
370:(3): 845–858.
344:
342:
339:
338:
337:
329:
324:
317:
311:
310:
307:history portal
294:
291:
257:
254:
209:
206:
146:Niall Ferguson
86:
83:
61:historiography
26:
24:
14:
13:
10:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
1101:
1090:
1087:
1085:
1082:
1080:
1077:
1075:
1072:
1070:
1067:
1066:
1064:
1055:
1052:
1050:
1049:
1044:
1040:
1037:
1034:
1031:
1030:
1026:
1019:
1013:
1009:
1005:
1001:
997:
993:
989:
985:
979:
975:
971:
967:
966:Belkin, Aaron
963:
959:
955:
949:
945:
941:
936:
932:
926:
922:
919:. Cambridge:
918:
917:
912:
908:
904:
898:
894:
890:
886:
882:
878:
872:
868:
864:
860:
856:
854:9780300227543
850:
846:
842:
838:
833:
829:
823:
819:
818:Berkley Books
815:
814:
809:
805:
801:
795:
791:
790:Berkley Books
787:
786:
781:
777:
773:
769:
765:
759:
755:
751:
750:
744:
743:
738:
730:
726:
725:
720:
713:
710:
705:
699:
695:
691:
690:
682:
679:
674:
670:
666:
662:
661:
653:
650:
645:
641:
640:
639:Infinity Plus
635:
628:
625:
620:
616:
612:
608:
601:
598:
593:
589:
585:
584:
579:
572:
569:
564:
560:
559:
554:
550:
544:
542:
538:
533:
529:
525:
521:
515:
512:
507:
503:
499:
495:
491:
487:
486:
481:
474:
471:
458:
454:
453:
448:
444:
438:
436:
432:
427:
425:9781403987341
421:
417:
413:
412:
407:
406:Black, Jeremy
401:
398:
393:
389:
385:
381:
377:
373:
369:
365:
364:
359:
356:(June 2004).
355:
354:Bunzl, Martin
349:
346:
340:
336:
334:
330:
328:
325:
323:
322:
318:
316:
313:
312:
308:
297:
292:
290:
288:
287:Altered Pasts
284:
280:
276:
271:
267:
264:
255:
253:
251:
250:
245:
240:
236:
234:
229:
225:
221:
219:
215:
207:
205:
203:
202:United States
199:
195:
191:
187:
183:
179:
175:
171:
170:globalization
165:
163:
162:Robert Cowley
159:
155:
151:
147:
143:
139:
135:
134:
128:
125:
121:
116:
114:
110:
106:
102:
98:
94:
93:
84:
82:
80:
76:
72:
68:
67:
62:
58:
54:
48:
44:
40:
39:Pseudohistory
33:
19:
1046:
1043:Martin Bunzl
1003:
969:
939:
915:
888:
866:
840:
816:. New York:
812:
788:. New York:
784:
748:
729:the original
722:
712:
688:
681:
664:
658:
652:
644:the original
637:
627:
619:the original
614:
610:
600:
592:the original
587:
581:
578:"Past Tense"
571:
563:the original
556:
532:the original
514:
489:
483:
473:
461:. Retrieved
457:the original
450:
410:
400:
367:
361:
348:
332:
319:
315:Jonbar hinge
286:
285:in his book
278:
274:
272:
268:
259:
247:
241:
237:
230:
226:
222:
211:
176:in China to
174:Song dynasty
166:
141:
131:
129:
124:Robert Fogel
119:
117:
112:
104:
90:
88:
64:
56:
52:
51:
194:Netherlands
115:scenarios.
85:Development
1063:Categories
891:. London:
341:References
200:, and the
158:"What If?"
506:0008-199X
384:0002-8762
281:, as has
263:causality
256:Criticism
913:(1991).
887:(1997).
865:(2013).
839:(2021).
772:62152782
335:(essays)
333:What If?
293:See also
190:Portugal
152:such as
113:What if?
66:What if?
893:Picador
463:25 June
327:Wargame
198:Britain
154:Marxism
1014:
980:
950:
927:
899:
873:
851:
824:
796:
770:
760:
700:
504:
422:
390:
382:
192:, the
182:Venice
55:(also
1045:from
388:JSTOR
186:Spain
178:Genoa
45:, or
1012:ISBN
978:ISBN
948:ISBN
925:ISBN
897:ISBN
871:ISBN
849:ISBN
822:ISBN
794:ISBN
768:OCLC
758:ISBN
698:ISBN
502:ISSN
465:2012
420:ISBN
380:ISSN
216:nor
669:doi
494:doi
372:doi
368:109
118:In
1065::
1010:.
998:;
994:;
976:.
964:;
946:.
923:.
895:.
847:.
820:.
792:.
766:.
756:.
721:.
696:.
692:.
665:38
663:.
636:.
613:.
609:.
588:50
586:.
580:.
555:.
540:^
526:.
522:.
500:.
490:40
488:.
482:.
449:.
434:^
386:.
378:.
366:.
360:.
289:.
220:.
196:,
188:,
184:,
180:,
122:,
77:,
41:,
1020:.
986:.
956:.
933:.
905:.
879:.
857:.
830:.
802:.
774:.
706:.
675:.
671::
615:1
508:.
496::
467:.
428:.
394:.
374::
49:.
34:.
20:)
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Additional terms may apply.