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made a number of changes to the way it calculated GDP, resulting in a 60% upward change in its estimate. The change led to discussion of the accuracy of GDP estimates, particularly in the context of Africa. It was also the first of many rebasings undertaken by
African economies, most of which led to
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The base year for calculations was changed from 1993 to 2006. In a paper discussing the change, development economists Morten Jerven and Magnus Ebo Duncan noted: "Upward revisions stemming from changes in outdated base years are common in developed countries such as the United States (Runkle 1998)"
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The new method showed lower shares in GDP of agriculture (dropped by about 8 percentage points) and industry (dropped by about 8 percentage points) and a compensatory higher share in GDP of services (increased by about 16 percentage points). Trend lines for all three sectors were fairly similar
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blog: "Boy, we really don’t know anything." Moss noted that Ghana had been one of the more heavily scrutinized economies of Africa, and that Moss had himself done a Ph.D. on Ghana, yet the numbers were so off. This made him pessimistic about the quality of statistics for other countries.
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The news brief from the Ghana
Statistical Service announcing the change noted that the new GDP series estimated a 60.3% larger GDP in the base year 2006 than the old GDP series. This number of 60% would be echoed by other sources discussing the matter. This would contrast with the
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and also said that one contributor to the high magnitude of the upward revision was the huge increment in base year (by 13 years) as opposed to more regular updates done in countries such as the United States.
134:. In the post, Devarajan noted that the absence of high-quality statistical data hampered Africa, development economists and international institutions, and donors, but that the problem could be rectified.
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401:"Lies, damn lies and GDP. Or, how Ghana went from being one of the poorest countries in the world one day to an aspiring middle-income one the next"
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89:, which would result in a slight downward revision of India's total GDP estimate.
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226:"News Brief: New Series of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Estimates"
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identified this as the main cause for the huge upward bump in GDP.
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The compilation methodology was changed from one based on the 1968
365:"Revising GDP estimates in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lessons from Ghana"
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Revising GDP estimates in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lessons from Ghana
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Sectoral distribution of GDP changed but trends remained similar
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New and better data sources were used for the new GDP series.
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231:. Ghana Statistical Service. November 3, 2010. Archived from
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between the new and old series. This would contrast with the
432:"India: GDP growth rate up, confidence in statistics down?"
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Immediately after the announcement, Todd Moss wrote in the
459:"Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions"
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328:"Think U.S. GDP numbers are unreliable? Check out Ghana"
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in
November 2012, leading to additional commentary from
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significant upward revisions in their estimates of GDP.
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by Morten Jerven and Magnus Ebo Ducan was published in
264:"Ghana Says, Hey, Guess What? We're Not Poor Anymore!"
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Jerven, Morten; Duncan, Magnus Ebo (August 1, 2012).
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69:International Standard Industrial Classification
130:, a wordplay on Easterly and Levine's classic
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55:Improvement and revision of data sources
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145:. Jerven also wrote about the issue in
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399:Jerven, Morten (November 20, 2012).
106:Reception by development economists
430:David Keohane (February 3, 2015).
326:Plumer, Brad (November 24, 2012).
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80:Total GDP estimate went up by 60%
63:Change in industry classification
39:Change in compilation methodology
372:The African Statistical Journal
262:Moss, Todd (November 5, 2010).
143:The African Statistical Journal
299:"Africa's statistical tragedy"
1:
494:Presidency of John Atta Mills
268:Center for Global Development
112:Center for Global Development
193:. GhanaWeb. November 5, 2010
191:"Ghana's GDP goes up by 60%"
128:Africa's statistical tragedy
67:The new GDP series used the
45:System of National Accounts
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489:Economic history of Ghana
167:2014 Nigeria GDP rebasing
172:2015 India GDP rebasing
132:Africa's Growth Tragedy
100:2015 India GDP rebasing
87:2015 India GDP rebasing
16:In November 2010, the
75:Effect on data series
118:On October 6, 2011,
154:The Washington Post
30:Change of base year
18:government of Ghana
238:on January 7, 2018
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466:. Retrieved
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25:Changes made
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443:October 21,
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483:Categories
303:World Bank
178:References
124:World Bank
161:See also
462:(PDF)
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470:2017
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