Moore's law - Knowledge (XXG)

944:. In 1975, House noted that Moore's revised law of doubling transistor count every 2 years in turn implied that computer chip performance would roughly double every 18 months (with no increase in power consumption). Mathematically, Moore's law predicted that transistor count would double every 2 years due to shrinking transistor dimensions and other improvements. As a consequence of shrinking dimensions, Dennard scaling predicted that power consumption per unit area would remain constant. Combining these effects, David House deduced that computer chip performance would roughly double every 18 months. Also due to Dennard scaling, this increased performance would not be accompanied by increased power, i.e., the energy-efficiency of 1064: 22: 952: 1218: 990:, the former CEO of Intel, cited Moore's 1975 revision as a precedent for the current deceleration, which results from technical challenges and is "a natural part of the history of Moore's law". The rate of improvement in physical dimensions known as Dennard scaling also ended in the mid-2000s. As a result, much of the semiconductor industry has shifted its focus to the needs of major computing applications rather than semiconductor scaling. Nevertheless, leading semiconductor manufacturers 393: 1851:– According to Gerald Butters, the former head of Lucent's Optical Networking Group at Bell Labs, there is another version, called Butters' Law of Photonics, a formulation that deliberately parallels Moore's law. Butters' law says that the amount of data coming out of an optical fiber is doubling every nine months. Thus, the cost of transmitting a bit over an optical network decreases by half every nine months. The availability of 1704:, which Moore's law factors into. Moore (1995) expected that "the rate of technological progress is going to be controlled from financial realities". The reverse could and did occur around the late-1990s, however, with economists reporting that "Productivity growth is the key economic indicator of innovation." Moore's law describes a driving force of technological and social change, productivity, and economic growth. 1771:

operating frequency by about 40% (1.4x). Finally, to keep electric field constant, voltage would be reduced by 30%, reducing energy by 65% and power (at 1.4x frequency) by 50%. Therefore, in every technology generation transistor density would double, circuit becomes 40% faster, while power consumption (with twice the number of transistors) stays the same. Dennard scaling ended in 2005–2010, due to leakage currents.

1742:– The most popular formulation is of the doubling of the number of transistors on ICs every two years. At the end of the 1970s, Moore's law became known as the limit for the number of transistors on the most complex chips. The graph at the top of this article shows this trend holds true today. As of 2017, the commercially available processor possessing the highest number of transistors is the 48 core 1673:, after using Moore's Law to drive the industry since 1998, produced its final roadmap. It no longer centered its research and development plan on Moore's law. Instead, it outlined what might be called the More than Moore strategy in which the needs of applications drive chip development, rather than a focus on semiconductor scaling. Application drivers range from smartphones to AI to data centers. 8040: 1607: 57: 1783:

tri-gate FinFET at 22 nm in 2012 that is faster and consumes less power than a conventional planar transistor. The rate of performance improvement for single-core microprocessors has slowed significantly. Single-core performance was improving by 52% per year in 1986–2003 and 23% per year in 2003–2011, but slowed to just seven percent per year in 2011–2018.

3863: 5879: 1723: 1944:– is a pharmaceutical drug development observation which was deliberately written as Moore's Law spelled backwards in order to contrast it with the exponential advancements of other forms of technology (such as transistors) over time. It states that the cost of developing a new drug roughly doubles every nine years. 1805:

The number of transistors per chip cannot explain quality-adjusted microprocessor prices fully. Moore's 1995 paper does not limit Moore's law to strict linearity or to transistor count, "The definition of 'Moore's Law' has come to refer to almost anything related to the semiconductor industry that on

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In terms of size you can see that we're approaching the size of atoms which is a fundamental barrier, but it'll be two or three generations before we get that far—but that's as far out as we've ever been able to see. We have another 10 to 20 years before we reach a fundamental limit. By then they'll

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of information technology (IT), computers and peripheral equipment, adjusted for quality and inflation, declined 16% per year on average over the five decades from 1959 to 2009. The pace accelerated, however, to 23% per year in 1995–1999 triggered by faster IT innovation, and later, slowed to 2% per

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As more transistors are put on a chip, the cost to make each transistor decreases, but the chance that the chip will not work due to a defect increases. In 1965, Moore examined the density of transistors at which cost is minimized, and observed that, as transistors were made smaller through advances

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magazine with a prediction on the future of the semiconductor components industry over the next ten years. His response was a brief article entitled "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits". Within his editorial, he speculated that by 1975 it would be possible to contain as many as 65,000

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Moore also affirmed he never said transistor count would double every 18 months, as is commonly said. Initially, he said transistors on a chip would double every year. He then recalibrated it to every two years in 1975. David House, an Intel executive at the time, noted that the changes would cause

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An acceleration in the rate of semiconductor progress contributed to a surge in U.S. productivity growth, which reached 3.4% per year in 1997–2004, outpacing the 1.6% per year during both 1972–1996 and 2005–2013. As economist Richard G. Anderson notes, "Numerous studies have traced the cause of the

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The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year. Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe

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to describe the biotechnological equivalent of Moore's law, and is named after author Rob Carlson. Carlson accurately predicted that the doubling time of DNA sequencing technologies (measured by cost and performance) would be at least as fast as Moore's law. Carlson Curves illustrate the rapid (in

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Moore posited a log-linear relationship between device complexity (higher circuit density at reduced cost) and time. In a 2015 interview, Moore noted of the 1965 article: "...I just did a wild extrapolation saying it's going to continue to double every year for the next 10 years." One historian of

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of zero and thus cannot be used in transistors because of its constant conductivity, an inability to turn off. The zigzag edges of the nanoribbons introduce localized energy states in the conduction and valence bands and thus a bandgap that enables switching when fabricated as a transistor. As an

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The breakdown of Dennard scaling prompted a greater focus on multicore processors, but the gains offered by switching to more cores are lower than the gains that would be achieved had Dennard scaling continued. In another departure from Dennard scaling, Intel microprocessors adopted a non-planar

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The exponential processor transistor growth predicted by Moore does not always translate into exponentially greater practical CPU performance. Since around 2005–2007, Dennard scaling has ended, so even though Moore's law continued after that, it has not yielded proportional dividends in improved

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analog photographs, which could be duplicated on-demand for library patrons or other institutions. He did not foresee the digital technology that would follow decades later to replace analog microform with digital imaging, storage, and transmission media. Automated, potentially lossless digital

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microprocessor price improvement continues, the rate of improvement likewise varies, and is not linear on a log scale. Microprocessor price improvement accelerated during the late 1990s, reaching 60% per year (halving every nine months) versus the typical 30% improvement rate (halving every two

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In 2011, researchers at the University of Pittsburgh announced the development of a single-electron transistor, 1.5 nm in diameter, made out of oxide-based materials. Three "wires" converge on a central "island" that can house one or two electrons. Electrons tunnel from one wire to another

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Some forecasters, including Gordon Moore, predict that Moore's law will end by around 2025. Although Moore's Law will reach a physical limit, some forecasters are optimistic about the continuation of technological progress in a variety of other areas, including new chip architectures, quantum

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In 2012, a team in MIT's Microsystems Technology Laboratories developed a 22 nm transistor based on InGaAs which, at the time, was the smallest non-silicon transistor ever built. The team used techniques used in silicon device fabrication and aimed for better electrical performance and a

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popularized the term "Moore's law". Moore's law eventually came to be widely accepted as a goal for the semiconductor industry, and it was cited by competitive semiconductor manufacturers as they strove to increase processing power. Moore viewed his eponymous law as surprising and optimistic:

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says that each doubling of the cumulative production of virtually any product or service is accompanied by an approximate constant percentage reduction in the unit cost. The acknowledged first documented qualitative description of this dates from 1885. A power curve was used to describe this

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would grow at roughly the same rate as transistor density, doubling every 1–2 years. According to Dennard scaling transistor dimensions would be scaled by 30% (0.7x) every technology generation, thus reducing their area by 50%. This would reduce the delay by 30% (0.7x) and therefore increase

1719:. As technologies continue to rapidly "improve", they render predecessor technologies obsolete. In situations in which security and survivability of hardware or data are paramount, or in which resources are limited, rapid obsolescence often poses obstacles to smooth or continued operations. 1471:

Microprocessor architects report that semiconductor advancement has slowed industry-wide since around 2010, below the pace predicted by Moore's law. Brian Krzanich, the former CEO of Intel, announced, "Our cadence today is closer to two and a half years than two." Intel stated in 2015 that

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Currently 2.5-inch drives are at 500GB/platter with some at 600GB or even 667GB/platter – a long way from 20TB/platter. To reach 20TB by 2020, the 500GB/platter drives will have to increase areal density 44 times in six years. It isn't going to happen. ... Rosenthal writes: "The technical

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Several measures of digital technology are improving at exponential rates related to Moore's law, including the size, cost, density, and speed of components. Moore wrote only about the density of components, "a component being a transistor, resistor, diode or capacitor", at minimum cost.

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between the year 2000 and 2007 as his premise. Despite the gains in computational performance during this time period according to Moore's law, Office 2007 performed the same task at half the speed on a prototypical year 2007 computer as compared to Office 2000 on a year 2000 computer.

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Dewey, G.; Kotlyar, R.; Pillarisetty, R.; Radosavljevic, M.; Rakshit, T.; Then, H.; Chau, R. (December 7, 2009). "Logic performance evaluation and transport physics of Schottky-gate III–V compound semiconductor quantum well field effect transistors for power supply voltages

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stated in an interview that the projection cannot be sustained indefinitely: "It can't continue forever. The nature of exponentials is that you push them out and eventually disaster happens." He also noted that transistors eventually would reach the limits of miniaturization at

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transistors. Quantum well devices contain a material sandwiched between two layers of material with a wider band gap. Despite being double the size of leading pure silicon transistors at the time, the company reported that they performed equally as well while consuming less

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The physical limits to transistor scaling have been reached due to source-to-drain leakage, limited gate metals and limited options for channel material. Other approaches are being investigated, which do not rely on physical scaling. These include the spin state of electron

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Industry experts have not reached a consensus on exactly when Moore's law will cease to apply. Microprocessor architects report that semiconductor advancement has slowed industry-wide since around 2010, slightly below the pace predicted by Moore's law. In September 2022,

1873:– Similarly, Barry Hendy of Kodak Australia has plotted pixels per dollar as a basic measure of value for a digital camera, demonstrating the historical linearity (on a log scale) of this market and the opportunity to predict the future trend of digital camera price, 3702: 1024:

As the cost of computer power to the consumer falls, the cost for producers to fulfill Moore's law follows an opposite trend: R&D, manufacturing, and test costs have increased steadily with each new generation of chips. The cost of the tools, principally EUVL

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some cases hyperexponential) decreases in cost, and increases in performance, of a variety of technologies, including DNA sequencing, DNA synthesis, and a range of physical and computational tools used in protein expression and in determining protein structures.

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It's official: Moore's Law is slowing down. ... "These transitions are a natural part of the history of Moore's Law and are a by-product of the technical challenges of shrinking transistors while ensuring they can be manufactured in high volume", Krzanich

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announced the development of the first working transistor consisting of a single atom placed precisely in a silicon crystal (not just picked from a large sample of random transistors). Moore's law predicted this milestone to be reached for ICs in the lab by

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in Cork, Ireland announced a junctionless transistor. A control gate wrapped around a silicon nanowire can control the passage of electrons without the use of junctions or doping. They claim these may be produced at 10-nm scale using existing fabrication

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In the later 1990s and 2000s, architectural innovation decreased, so performance came primarily from higher clock rates and larger caches. The ending of Dennard Scaling and Moore's Law also slowed this path; single core performance improved only 3% last

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example, a typical GNR of width of 10 nm has a desirable bandgap energy of 0.4 eV.) More research will need to be performed, however, on sub-50 nm graphene layers, as its resistivity value increases and thus electron mobility decreases.

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Radosavljevic R, et al. (December 5, 2011). "Electrostatics improvement in 3-D tri-gate over ultra-thin body planar InGaAs quantum well field effect transistors with high-K gate dielectric and scaled gate-to-drain/Gate-to-source separation".

1480:. Pat Gelsinger, Intel CEO, stated at the end of 2023 that "we're no longer in the golden era of Moore's Law, it's much, much harder now, so we're probably doubling effectively closer to every three years now, so we've definitely seen a slowing." 1186:

had been mainly used as research devices since their development in the 1970s. From a broader scientific perspective, the invention of excimer laser lithography has been highlighted as one of the major milestones in the 50-year history of the

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productivity acceleration to technological innovations in the production of semiconductors that sharply reduced the prices of such components and of the products that contain them (as well as expanding the capabilities of such products)."

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technical progress in the semiconductor industry has continued to proceed at a rapid pace ... Advances in semiconductor technology have driven down the constant-quality prices of MPUs and other chips at a rapid rate over the past several

3791: 948:-based computer chips roughly doubles every 18 months. Dennard scaling ended in the 2000s. Koomey later showed that a similar rate of efficiency improvement predated silicon chips and Moore's law, for technologies such as vacuum tubes. 1300:

through the island. Conditions on the third wire result in distinct conductive properties including the ability of the transistor to act as a solid state memory. Nanowire transistors could spur the creation of microscopic computers.

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We won't have the rate of progress that we've had over the last few decades. I think that's inevitable with any technology; it eventually saturates out. I guess I see Moore's law dying here in the next decade or so, but that's not

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Numerous innovations by scientists and engineers have sustained Moore's law since the beginning of the IC era. Some of the key innovations are listed below, as examples of breakthroughs that have advanced integrated circuit and

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InGaAs transistors with improved leakage characteristics compared to traditional planar designs. The company claims that their design achieved the best electrostatics of any III-V compound semiconductor transistor. At the 2015

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technology originally presented by John Szedon in 1967, significantly increasing the number of transistors on a flash memory chip. 3D NAND was first announced by Toshiba in 2007. V-NAND was first commercially manufactured by

3700: 2737:... the rate of increase of complexity can be expected to change slope in the next few years as shown in Figure 5. The new slope might approximate a doubling every two years, rather than every year, by the end of the decade. 2820:

1965: Moore's Law is born when Gordon Moore predicts that the number of transistors on a chip will double roughly every year (a decade later, in 1975, Moore published an update, revising the doubling period to every 2

6713:. Finance and Economics Discussion Series Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs Federal Reserve Board. Washington, D.C.: Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS). 3463:

The costs required to fabricate chips have increased in a predictable manner, operating under what is referred to Moore's Second Law or "Rock's Law," which says the cost of semiconductor tools doubles every four

6122: 1752:- This is the formulation given in Moore's 1965 paper. It is not just about the density of transistors that can be achieved, but about the density of transistors at which the cost per transistor is the lowest. 5135: 6969:

difficulties of migrating from PMR to HAMR, meant that already in 2010 the Kryder rate had slowed significantly and was not expected to return to its trend in the near future. The floods reinforced this."

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Cheng, Guanglei; Siles, Pablo F.; Bi, Feng; Cen, Cheng; Bogorin, Daniela F.; Bark, Chung Wung; Folkman, Chad M.; Park, Jae-Wan; Eom, Chang-Beom; Medeiros-Ribeiro, Gilberto; Levy, Jeremy (April 19, 2011).

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The exponential rate of increase in die sizes, coupled with a decrease in defective densities, with the result that semiconductor manufacturers could work with larger areas without losing reduction yields

2796: 3699:"Positive and Negative Working Resist Compositions with Acid-Generating Photoinitiator and Polymer with Acid-Labile Groups Pendant From Polymer Backbone" J. M. J. Fréchet, H. Ito and C. G. Willson 1985. 368: 2750: 2418: 1393:, a fourth basic passive circuit element whose existence only had been theorized previously. The memristor's unique properties permit the creation of smaller and better-performing electronic devices. 1827:. The prediction was later viewed as over-optimistic. Several decades of rapid progress in areal density slowed around 2010, from 30 to 100% per year to 10–15% per year, because of noise related to 1515:, or InGaAs. Compared to their silicon and germanium counterparts, InGaAs transistors are more promising for future high-speed, low-power logic applications. Because of intrinsic characteristics of 837:

studied the projected downscaling of integrated circuit (IC) size, publishing his results in the article "Microelectronics, and the Art of Similitude". Engelbart presented his findings at the 1960

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is the observation that the price of solar photovoltaic modules tends to drop 20 percent for every doubling of cumulative shipped volume. At present rates, costs go down 75% about every 10 years.

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transistors is the design of gates. As device dimension shrinks, controlling the current flow in the thin channel becomes more difficult. Modern nanoscale transistors typically take the form of

755:(CAGR) of 41%. Moore's empirical evidence did not directly imply that the historical trend would continue, nevertheless his prediction has held since 1975 and has since become known as a "law". 1895:

and is the principle that successive generations of computer software increase in size and complexity, thereby offsetting the performance gains predicted by Moore's law. In a 2008 article in

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developed an InGaAs tunneling field-effect transistors capable of higher operating currents than previous designs. The first III-V TFET designs were demonstrated in 2009 by a joint team from

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performance. The primary reason cited for the breakdown is that at small sizes, current leakage poses greater challenges, and also causes the chip to heat up, which creates a threat of

2407: 3393: 4220:; Takato, H.; Sunouchi, K.; Okabe, N.; Nitayama, A.; Hieda, K.; Horiguchi, F. (December 1988). "High performance CMOS surrounding gate transistor (SGT) for ultra high density LSIs". 1700:

Digital electronics have contributed to world economic growth in the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. The primary driving force of economic growth is the growth of

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Year-over-year exponential computer performance scaling has ended. Complicating this is the coming disruption of the "technology escalator" underlying the industry: Moore's law.

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adversely change desired material properties of silicon as a functional transistor. Below are several non-silicon substitutes in the fabrication of small nanometer transistors.

1029:), used to manufacture chips doubles every 4 years. Rising manufacturing costs are an important consideration for the sustaining of Moore's law. This led to the formulation of 888:

stays constant such that the power use remains in proportion with area. Evidence from the semiconductor industry shows that this inverse relationship between power density and

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Fuechsle, M.; Miwa, J. A.; Mahapatra, S.; Ryu, H.; Lee, S.; Warschkow, O.; Hollenberg, L. C.; Klimeck, G.; Simmons, M. Y. (December 16, 2011). "A single-atom transistor".

3447: 4747: 5236:...the CEO stated transistors now double closer to every three years, which is actually significantly behind the pace of Moore's Law, which dictated a two-year cadence. 2173: 1766:– This posits that power usage would decrease in proportion to area (both voltage and current being proportional to length) of transistors. Combined with Moore's law, 1132: 7861: 5186: 2721: 6527: 1802:

years) during the years earlier and later. Laptop microprocessors in particular improved 25–35% per year in 2004–2010, and slowed to 15–25% per year in 2010–2013.

354: 7666: 1981:. The rapid rise in online bandwidth is largely due to the same MOSFET scaling that enabled Moore's law, as telecommunications networks are built from MOSFETs. 1677: 1570: 1225:

MOSFET. The threshold voltage is around 0.45 V. Nanowire MOSFETs lie toward the end of the ITRS road map for scaling devices below 10 nm gate lengths.

838: 6577: 6571:"A New Golden Age for Computer Architecture: Domain-Specific Hardware/Software Co-Design, Enhanced Security, Open Instruction Sets, and Agile Chip Development" 5911: 2663:"A New Golden Age for Computer Architecture: Domain-Specific Hardware/Software Co-Design, Enhanced Security, Open Instruction Sets, and Agile Chip Development" 2102:

The trend begins with the invention of the integrated circuit in 1958. See the graph on the bottom of page 3 of Moore's original presentation of the idea.

1859:(DWDM) is rapidly bringing down the cost of networking, and further progress seems assured. As a result, the wholesale price of data traffic collapsed in the 5337:

Behin-Aein, Behtash; Datta, Deepanjan; Salahuddin, Sayeef; Datta, Supriyo (February 28, 2010). "Proposal for an all-spin logic device with built-in memory".

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claimed to be significantly faster with similar density compared to NAND. Production scheduled to begin in 2016 was delayed until the second half of 2017.

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Han Zhao; et al. (February 28, 2011). "Improving the on-current of In0.7Ga0.3As tunneling field-effect-transistors by p++/n+ tunneling junction".

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simulate one million neurons and billions of synaptic connections, claimed to be 9,000 times faster as well as more energy efficient than a typical PC.

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to double in capacity every 16 years, if sufficient space were made available. He advocated replacing bulky, decaying printed works with miniaturized

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1980, which was 5–10 times more sensitive to ultraviolet light. IBM introduced chemically amplified photoresist for DRAM production in the mid-1980s.

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Microprocessor architects report that since around 2010, semiconductor advancement has slowed industry-wide below the pace predicted by Moore's law.

6483: 7725: 4761: 3829: 3288: 2807: 1492:, and advanced confinement of channel materials via nano-wire geometry. Spin-based logic and memory options are being developed actively in labs. 7017: 805:, are strongly linked to Moore's law. These ongoing changes in digital electronics have been a driving force of technological and social change, 6601:"Private fixed investment, chained price index: Nonresidential: Equipment: Information processing equipment: Computers and peripheral equipment" 5642: 8086: 7894: 6714: 7171: 6450: 4165: 4062: 2357: 974:

CPU; the Executive has 100 times the weight, almost 500 times the volume, approximately 10 times the inflation-adjusted cost, and 1/100th the

7588: 7505: 7318: 6861: 6647: 5815: 5444: 5402: 4848:"Samsung Introduces World's First 3D V-NAND Based SSD for Enterprise Applications | Samsung | Samsung Semiconductor Global Website" 4721: 4478: 4361: 4140: 3935: 3477: 3071: 2995: 2929: 2765: 2624: 2391: 5469: 3399: 1265:, who demonstrated a vertical nanowire GAAFET which he called a "surrounding gate transistor" (SGT). Masuoka, best known as the inventor of 6566: 5579: 3235: 1855:(sometimes called WDM) increased the capacity that could be placed on a single fiber by as much as a factor of 100. Optical networking and 1342: 1054: 69: 7133: 4155:"Table1: 1990 enabling multilevel metallization; 1995 enabling STI compact isolation, polysilicon patterning and yield / defect reduction" 6679: 6285: 5492: 4739: 4313:"Still Room at the Bottom.(nanometer transistor developed by Yang-kyu Choi from the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology )" 1209:

Computer industry technology road maps predicted in 2001 that Moore's law would continue for several generations of semiconductor chips.

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issue in which Moore's article appeared. An engineer living in the United Kingdom was the first to find a copy and offer it to Intel.

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research shows that biological material has superior information density and energy efficiency compared to silicon-based computing.

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research team including T. Imoto, M. Matsui and C. Takubo developed a "System Block Module" wafer bonding process for manufacturing

1194: 7753: 5103: 3204: 7658:– speed increases in recent years have seemed to slow with regard to percentage increase per year (available in PDF or PNG format) 6631: 2698:

A decade later, he revised what had become known as Moore's Law: The number of transistors on a chip would double every two years.

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Conte, Thomas M.; Track, Elie; DeBenedictis, Erik (December 2015). "Rebooting Computing: New Strategies for Technology Scaling".

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being the most common nanoscale transistor. The FinFET has gate dielectric on three sides of the channel. In comparison, the

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transistors produced using EUVL. The company believed this transistor density would be four times that of the then current

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The doubling period is often misquoted as 18 months because of a separate prediction by Moore's colleague, Intel executive

8106: 8044: 8010: 6951: 6152: 5075: 2714: 1962: 1585: 1577: 1304: 1122: 452: 5193: 4625: 3503: 1837:– The number of bits per second that can be sent down an optical fiber increases exponentially, faster than Moore's law. 6534: 3769: 1146: 7077: 6812:... compared with −25% to −35% per year over 2004–2010, the annual decline plateaus around −15% to −25% over 2010–2013. 6763:"Why Are Semiconductor Price Indexes Falling So Fast? Industry Estimates and Implications for Productivity Measurement" 8076: 8066: 7718: 7643: 4819: 752: 647: 579: 554: 447: 6570: 6384: 5047: 3636:. 1963 IEEE International Solid-State Circuits Conference. Digest of Technical Papers. Vol. VI. pp. 32–33. 1919:

technologies allowed vast increases in the rapidity of information growth in an era that now sometimes is called the

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Strukov, Dmitri B; Snider, Gregory S; Stewart, Duncan R; Williams, Stanley R (2008). "The missing memristor found".

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The last two technology transitions have signaled that our cadence today is closer to two and a half years than two

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Building Data Science Solutions with Anaconda: A comprehensive starter guide to building robust and complete models

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TSMC and OIP Ecosystem Partners Deliver Industry's First Complete Design Infrastructure for 5nm Process Technology

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declared Moore's law dead in 2022; several days later, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger countered with the opposite claim.

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technology, allowing transistor counts to grow by more than seven orders of magnitude in less than five decades.

494: 2964: 2158: 747:(and former CEO of the latter), who in 1965 noted that the number of components per integrated circuit had been 8081: 5965: 4961: 3011: 2587: 1948: 934: 767: 763: 674: 419: 21: 4386: 3745:

Ito, Hiroshi; Willson, C. Grant; Frechet, Jean H. J. (1982). "New UV resists with negative or positive tone".

7697: 6035: 5706:. 10th IEEE International Conference 2010: Solid-State and Integrated Circuit Technology (ICSICT). Shanghai. 2560:"Gordon Moore: The Man Whose Name Means Progress, The visionary engineer reflects on 50 years of Moore's Law" 8101: 7963: 7936: 7408: 5833: 4762:"TOSHIBA COMMERCIALIZES INDUSTRY'S HIGHEST CAPACITY EMBEDDED NAND FLASH MEMORY FOR MOBILE CONSUMER PRODUCTS" 3822: 3603: 3114: 2444: 1528: 1512: 1423: 845: 740: 632: 522: 442: 7655: 3289:"Moore's Law is Alive and Well – Charts show it may be dying at Intel, but others are picking up the slack" 2559: 7973: 7968: 7941: 7711: 6476: 6396: 6156: 3718:

Ito, H.; Willson, C. G. (1983). "Chemical amplification in the design of dry developing resist material".

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effect transistors based on InGaAs have been proposed as alternatives to more traditional MOSFET designs.

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GB flash memory chip that was manufactured with 24 stacked NAND flash chips using a wafer bonding process.

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approximates a straight line. I hesitate to review its origins and by doing so restrict its definition."

7899: 7870: 7639: 7196: 5281: 2042: 869:, to introduce the fact that the regular doubling of components was known to many working in the field. 609: 537: 432: 7803: 6626:

Nambiar, Raghunath; Poess, Meikel (2011). "Transaction Performance vs. Moore's Law: A Trend Analysis".

4769: 3298: 3088: 2039: – Trend indicating the number of computations per unit energy dissipated doubles every 1.57 years 1030: 1019: 7222: 6149:

Information Technology and the U.S. Economy: Presidential Address to the American Economic Association

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Burnham, R.; Djeu, N. (1976). "Ultraviolet-preionized discharge-pumped lasers in XeF, KrF, and ArF".

3890: 3236:"Home>Semiconductors Samsung's Aggressive EUV Plans: 6nm Production in H2, 5nm & 4nm On Track" 1878: 1767: 1622: 1600: 1531: 1505: 1080: 786: 729: 311: 7162: 6401: 6161: 4055: 3258: 2498: 2384:

The Information Systems Security Officer's Guide: Establishing and Managing a Cyber Security Program

1573:, Intel mentioned the use of III-V compounds based on such an architecture for their 7 nm node. 1193:

innovations: Interconnect innovations of the late 1990s, including chemical-mechanical polishing or

8096: 8003: 7978: 6443: 5808: 4688: 4495: 4169: 2006: 1629: 1626: 1416: 1397: 1383: 1217: 1198: 995: 771: 662: 409: 7661: 5132:"IBM Unveils World's First 2 Nanometer Chip Technology, Opening a New Frontier for Semiconductors" 4791: 2681: 844:

In 1965, Gordon Moore, who at the time was working as the director of research and development at

8020: 7511: 7466: 7377: 7359: 7227: 6922: 6653: 6414: 6314: 6114: 5859: 5450: 5408: 5319: 5293: 5253: 5080: 4935: 4607: 4413: 4367: 4233: 4146: 3906: 3858: 3179: 2064: 1978: 1828: 1581: 1096: 748: 709: 652: 642: 532: 527: 508: 489: 437: 7773: 392: 6278: 4954:"Stanford bioengineers create circuit board modeled on the human brain – Stanford News Release" 4738:

Imoto, T.; Matsui, M.; Takubo, C.; Akejima, S.; Kariya, T.; Nishikawa, T.; Enomoto, R. (2001).

7808: 7793: 7594: 7584: 7565: 7548: 7538: 7501: 7387: 7351: 7314: 7280: 7158: 6672: 6643: 6600: 6176: 6144: 6031: 5790: 5782: 5673: 5440: 5398: 5362: 4927: 4711: 4599: 4523: 4474: 4441: 4357: 4262: 4252: 4136: 3941: 3931: 3067: 2991: 2935: 2925: 2919: 2838: 2803: 2761: 2630: 2620: 2387: 2256: 1546: 1538: 1408: 1378: 1316: 1270: 1234: 1150: 1115: 1038: 956: 873: 834: 584: 119: 2302: 8091: 7988: 7904: 7619: 7493: 7458: 7431: 7343: 7308: 7054: 6635: 6562: 6475:

Esmaeilzedah, Hadi; Blem, Emily; St. Amant, Renee; Sankaralingam, Kartikeyan; Burger, Doug.

6406: 6202: 6192: 6106: 6072: 5772: 5707: 5665: 5614: 5560: 5432: 5390: 5354: 5311: 5048:"Samsung Starts Production of 512 GB UFS NAND Flash Memory: 64-Layer V-NAND, 860 MB/s Reads" 4919: 4703: 4591: 4515: 4433: 4347: 4339: 4225: 4128: 4004: 3898: 3727: 3637: 3293: 3171: 2608: 2538: 2268: 2018: 1993: 1900: 1864: 1757: 1743: 1716: 1565: 1430:

GB flash memory chip, with eight stacked 64-layer V-NAND dies. In 2019, Samsung produced a 1

1175: 1164: 1076: 1058: 951: 589: 574: 547: 499: 484: 414: 326: 315: 301: 92: 83: 30: 7334:

Carlson, Robert (September 2003). "The Pace and Proliferation of Biological Technologies".

5284:; Nikonov, Dmitri E.; Young, Ian A. (2016). "Material Targets for Scaling All Spin Logic". 4885:"Samsung Electronics Starts Mass Production of Industry First 3-bit 3D V-NAND Flash Memory" 1899:, Randall C. Kennedy, formerly of Intel, introduces this term using successive versions of 7218: 7031: 6982: 6887: 6358: 5992: 4031: 3706: 2858: 2612: 1974: 1920: 1821: 1776: 1489: 1442: 1438: 1353: 1254: 1242: 1230: 1202: 975: 881: 782: 622: 569: 469: 464: 427: 384: 341: 7783: 7768: 7763: 7758: 7748: 6769: 4334:

Lee, Hyunjin; et al. (2006). "Sub-5nm All-Around Gate FinFET for Ultimate Scaling".

3448:

The Health and Competitiveness of the U.S. Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment Industry

2889: 2203:"'Moore's Law's dead,' Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says in justifying gaming-card price hike" 2036: 1957: 930: 128: 110: 101: 6936: 6739: 5768: 5661: 5556: 5350: 5307: 5267: 5220:"Intel's CEO says Moore's Law is slowing to a three-year cadence, but it's not dead yet" 4915: 4587: 4511: 4429: 4000: 3894: 1345:(3D IC) packages in 2001. In April 2007, Toshiba introduced an eight-layer 3D IC, the 16 7813: 7788: 7778: 6310: 5935: 5931: 2082: 2076: 2030: 2024: 1985: 1940: 1892: 1888: 1860: 1831:

of the disk media, thermal stability, and writability using available magnetic fields.

1285: 1068: 987: 802: 794: 778: 721: 627: 599: 164: 158: 152: 146: 140: 134: 34: 5187:"INTEL CORP, FORM 10-K (Annual Report), Filed 02/12/16 for the Period Ending 12/26/15" 4670: 1989:

predicts that the brightness of LEDs increases as their manufacturing cost goes down.

1632:

have shown promise since its appearance in publications in 2008. (Bulk graphene has a

1063: 8060: 8025: 7825: 7670: 6825: 6255: 4237: 4217: 3629: 3625: 3536: 1927: 1911: 1807: 1542: 1262: 1183: 1140: 1136: 999: 885: 822: 594: 564: 542: 331: 236: 227: 218: 209: 200: 191: 182: 173: 26: 7515: 7470: 7363: 6913:

Plumer, Martin L.; et al. (March 2011). "New Paradigms in Magnetic Recording".

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silicon and its alloys. As silicon is fabricated into single nanometer transistors,

7929: 7680: 6857: 6796:"What We Are Paying for: A Quality Adjusted Price Index for Laptop Microprocessors" 6090: 5988: 5638: 5323: 4939: 4150: 4087: 2353: 2324: 2290: 2265:

1960 IEEE International Solid-State Circuits Conference. Digest of Technical Papers

2235: 2154: 2054: 1712: 1701: 1689: 1646: 1593: 1557: 1550: 1266: 1126: 1007: 1003: 880:

recognized the rapid MOSFET scaling technology and formulated what became known as

855:

components on a single quarter-square-inch (~1.6 square-centimeter) semiconductor.

818: 806: 790: 736: 559: 281: 263: 254: 245: 4123:

Steigerwald, J. M. (2008). "Chemical mechanical polish: The enabling technology".

1377:, also known as 3D NAND, allows flash memory cells to be stacked vertically using 7381: 4696:

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4320: 4106: 2009: – Perceived increase in the rate of technological change throughout history 7924: 7919: 7490:

2009 2nd International Workshop on Electron Devices and Semiconductor Technology

7486:"From millibits to terabits per second and beyond - over 60 years of innovation" 7087: 6740:"Shifting Trends in Semiconductor Prices and the Pace of Technological Progress" 6639: 6505: 5711: 5250:

Overview of Beyond-CMOS Devices and A Uniform Methodology for Their Benchmarking

4796: 4466: 2206: 2012: 1842: 1817: 1798: 1790: 1485: 1160: 1034: 925: 775: 717: 713: 517: 7462: 7347: 7310:

Biology Is Technology: The Promise, Peril, and New Business of Engineering Life

6110: 6076: 5700: 5619: 5602: 4984: 4343: 3878: 3641: 2272: 2260: 1969:(including the Internet) is doubling every 18 months. The bandwidths of online 1676:

IEEE began a road-mapping initiative in 2016, "Rebooting Computing", named the

7884: 7686: 7676: 7598: 7497: 5436: 5394: 4707: 4132: 3695: 3510: 2866:. IEEE solid-state circuits society newsletter. September 2006. Archived from 1760:, this number would increase at "a rate of roughly a factor of two per year". 1356: 1111: 1072: 979: 964: 705: 296: 56: 7284: 6502:"The death of CPU scaling: From one core to many – and why we're still stuck" 5786: 3348:"Intel says it was too aggressive pursuing 10nm, will have 7nm chips in 2021" 3037: 2634: 7914: 7552: 7110: 6410: 5580:"Tiny compound semiconductor transistor could challenge silicon's dominance" 5108: 5052: 4699: 4414:"Super-small transistor created: Artificial atom powered by single electron" 4258: 4229: 3945: 2939: 2070: 1915: 1896: 1856: 1534: 1500:

The vast majority of current transistors on ICs are composed principally of

1412: 1401: 1390: 1104: 960: 732:, a type of law quantifying efficiency gains from experience in production. 7581:

Moore's Law: The Life of Gordon Moore, Silicon Valley's Quiet Revolutionary

7355: 6628:

Performance Evaluation, Measurement and Characterization of Complex Systems

5794: 5677: 5669: 5366: 5002: 4931: 4603: 4527: 4445: 4092:"transcription of Gordon Moore's Plenary Address at ISSCC 50th Anniversary" 3902: 2111:

In April 2005, Intel offered US$ 10,000 to purchase a copy of the original

1334:

nm, have no relation to the physical size of device elements (transistors).

7624: 7607: 7485: 5358: 4595: 4437: 3925: 3731: 3320: 3012:"The Immutable Connection between Moore's Law and Artificial Intelligence" 2543: 2526: 1606: 7734: 7082: 6768:. U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis. Archived from 6343: 6223: 5470:"Intel at ISSCC 2015: Reaping the Benefits of 14nm and Going Beyond 10nm" 4824: 4290: 4030:, U.K. Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, archived from 3352: 2471: 1659:

be able to make bigger chips and have transistor budgets in the billions.

1633: 1618: 1434: 1349: 1222: 933:. Everything gets better and better." The observation was even seen as a 479: 7839: 7336:

Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science

6224:"Information Processing Equipment and Software in the National Accounts" 4923: 3977:

Basov, N. G. et al., Zh. Eksp. Fiz. i Tekh. Pis'ma. Red. 12, 473 (1970).

3654:

Wanlass, F., "Low stand-by power complementary field effect circuitry",

3175: 6207: 6197: 6180: 5936:"The New Old Economy: Oil, Computers, and the Reinvention of the Earth" 5846:

chart: "Faith no Moore" Selected predictions for the end of Moore's law

4519: 3062:

Sandhie, Zarin Tasnim; Ahmed, Farid Uddin; Chowdhury, Masud H. (2022).

1338: 1258: 1119: 945: 921: 5564: 1867:

says that the bandwidth available to users increases by 50% annually.

1083:

components manufactured in the same wafer area in less than 18 months.

6704:

Byrne, David M.; Oliner, Stephen D.; Sichel, Daniel E. (March 2013).

5916: 4352: 3762:"Patterning the World: The Rise of Chemically Amplified Photoresists" 3115:"As Intel co-founder's law slows, a rethinking of the chip is needed" 2232:"Intel: 'Moore's law is not dead' as Arc A770 GPU is priced at $ 329" 1685: 1374: 1246: 1238: 967: 814: 64: 5777: 5752: 4740:"Development of 3-Dimensional Module Package, "System Block Module"" 4254:

Micro- and Nanoelectronics: Emerging Device Challenges and Solutions

4008: 3823:"Chemical amplification resists: History and development within IBM" 3422:"'Better Yield on 5nm than 7nm': TSMC Update on Defect Rates for N5" 3134:"Intel pushes 10nm chip-making process to 2017, slowing Moore's Law" 6742:. The Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics Discussion Series 5864: 4336:

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3634:

Nanowatt logic using field-effect metal-oxide semiconductor triodes

848:, was asked to contribute to the thirty-fifth anniversary issue of 7829: 7737: 7562:

The Long Arm of Moore's law: Microelectronics and American Science

7435: 6927: 5298: 5258: 2414: 1721: 1605: 1477: 1473: 1467:

computer chip, with parts supposedly being smaller than human DNA.

1449:

trillion transistors, the highest transistor count of any IC chip.

1364: 1320: 1277: 1221:

A simulation of electron density as gate voltage (Vg) varies in a

1216: 1205:

wires, closer spacing of devices, and lower electrical resistance.

1062: 971: 950: 798: 744: 20: 7422:

Wright, T. P. (1936). "Factors Affecting the Cost of Airplanes".

6222:

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6181:"A Retrospective Look at the U.S. Productivity Growth Resurgence" 4166:"IBM100 – Copper Interconnects: The Evolution of Microprocessors" 7703: 6987: 6576:. International Symposium on Computer Architecture – ISCA 2018. 6067:

Keyes, Robert W. (September 2006). "The Impact of Moore's Law".

5999: 5493:"Intel forges ahead to 10nm, will move away from silicon at 7nm" 3266: 2867: 2665:. International Symposium on Computer Architecture – ISCA 2018. 1722: 1651: 1464: 1453: 1312: 1281: 991: 306: 7843: 7824:

Semantically, a computer law is not a hard and fast law, but a

7707: 6557: 6555: 6528:"Tri-Gate Transistors: Enabling Moore's Law at 22nm and Beyond" 3747:

VLSI Technology, 1982. Digest of Technical Papers. Symposium on

3205:"TSMC: 5nm on Track for Q2 2020 HVM, Will Ramp Faster Than 7nm" 1437:

flash chip with eight stacked 96-layer V-NAND dies, along with

37:

against dates of introduction, nearly doubling every two years

6256:"Nonfarm Business Sector: Real Output Per Hour of All Persons" 5880:"Smaller, Faster, Cheaper, Over: The Future of Computer Chips" 5104:"Samsung Shares SSD Roadmap for QLC NAND And 96-layer 3D NAND" 5022:"Intel's first Optane SSD: 375GB that you can also use as RAM" 2797:"Over 6 Decades of Continued Transistor Shrinkage, Innovation" 2358:"Smaller, Faster, Cheaper, Over: The Future of Computer Chips" 1154: 877: 6826:"Moore's Law and the Semiconductor Industry: A Vintage Model" 6738:

Aizcorbe, Ana; Oliner, Stephen D.; Sichel, Daniel E. (2006).

5702:

Graphene Transistors – A New Contender for Future Electronics

3960: 3369:"Samsung Completes Development of 5nm EUV Process Technology" 2408:"Excerpts from a conversation with Gordon Moore: Moore's Law" 1330:

nm GAAFET nodes by 2021–2022. Note that node names, such as 3

884:, which describes that as MOS transistors get smaller, their 6952:"Kryder's law craps out: Race to UBER-CHEAP STORAGE is OVER" 3790:

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2837:. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: Chemical Heritage Foundation. 2656: 2654: 2652: 2650: 2648: 2646: 2644: 1472:

improvements in MOSFET devices have slowed, starting at the

7407:

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6831:. U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis. 6444:"A 30 Year Retrospective on Dennard's MOSFET Scaling Paper" 6229:. U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4653:"Samsung Plans Mass Production of 3nm GAAFET Chips in 2021" 3599:"1963: Complementary MOS Circuit Configuration is Invented" 2386:(3rd ed.). Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann. p. 72. 7662:

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5003:"Intel's New Memory Chips Are Faster, Store Way More Data" 4496:"New nanowire transistors may help keep Moore's Law alive" 4195: 3577:

Noyce, Robert, "Semiconductor device-and-lead structure",

1953:

phenomenon in a 1936 discussion of the cost of airplanes.

1229:

One of the key technical challenges of engineering future

7579:

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4222:

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4099:

transcription "Moore on Moore: no Exponential is forever"

3453:(Report). U.S. International Trade Commission. p. 17 1556:

In 2009, Intel announced the development of 80-nm InGaAs

860:

it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years.

1711:

The primary negative implication of Moore's law is that

16:

Observation on the growth of integrated circuit capacity

6284:. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses. 6258:. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Data. 2014 5601:

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5387:

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4103:

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3537:"The Origin, Nature, and Implications of 'Moore's Law'" 2499:"The Origin, Nature, and Implications of 'MOORE'S LAW'" 1359:

memory chip which was manufactured with eight stacked 2

7642:– released for Moore's Law's 40th anniversary, with a 6533:. Intel Corporation at semiconwest.org. Archived from 5912:"These 3 Computing Technologies Will Beat Moore's Law" 5248:

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4985:"3D Xpoint memory: Faster-than-flash storage unveiled" 3674:

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2073: – Functional relationship between two quantities 1726:

Intel transistor gate length trend. Transistor scaling

1549:, extending Moore's law for planar CMOS technology to 712:(IC) doubles about every two years. Moore's law is an 7535:

Understanding Moore's Law: Four Decades of Innovation

7010:"Gerald Butters is a communications industry veteran" 6630:. Lecture Notes in Computer Science. Vol. 6417. 6036:"Long-term Estimates of U.S. Productivity and Growth" 4192:"International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors" 2835:

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2758:

Understanding Moore's Law: Four Decades of Innovation

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2079: – Computing adage made popular by Niklaus Wirth 1613:

image of graphene in its hexagonal lattice structure

1463:

In May 2021, IBM announced the creation of the first

1422:

In 2017, Samsung combined its V-NAND technology with

1280:(KAIST) and the National Nano Fab Center developed a 1257:

MOSFET (GAAFET) was first demonstrated in 1988, by a

7677:

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5519:"InGaAs tunnel FET with ON current increased by 61%" 4102: 3398:(press release), TSMC, April 3, 2019, archived from 3064:

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2027: – Observation about the discovery of new drugs 1452:

In 2020, Samsung Electronics planned to produce the

1389:

In 2008, researchers at HP Labs announced a working

7877: 7197:"Using Moore's Law to Predict Future Memory Trends" 5960: 5958: 4387:"Junctionless Transistor Fabricated from Nanowires" 3879:"Ultrafast deep-UV lithography with excimer lasers" 2990:. Birmingham, UK: Packt Publishing Ltd. p. 9. 2159:"Cramming more components onto integrated circuits" 1671:

International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors

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Chemical Heritage Foundation. pp. 67–84. 2445:"Intel offers $ 10,000 for Moore's Law magazine" 1400:developed a circuit modeled on the human brain. 998:have claimed to keep pace with Moore's law with 6477:"Dark Silicon and the end of multicore scaling" 6279:"How Well Do Wages Follow Productivity Growth?" 6026: 6024: 5632: 5630: 4744:Electronic Components and Technology Conference 3198: 3196: 3050:computer performance to double every 18 months. 2051: – Adages and sayings named after a person 1779:and therefore, further increases energy costs. 1656: 1564:In 2011, researchers at Intel demonstrated 3-D 1288:device at the time, based on FinFET technology. 1276:In 2006, a team of Korean researchers from the 7537:. Philadelphia: Chemical Heritage Foundation. 6733: 6731: 6707:Is the Information Technology Revolution Over? 6383:Borkar, Shekhar; Chien, Andrew A. (May 2011). 5524:. Vol. 6, no. 6. 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The Economist 7164:Some Lesser-Known Laws of Computer Science 1249:) structure has even better gate control. 1118:in 1958, followed by the invention of the 689: 675: 380: 369: 355: 40: 7650:No Technology has been more disruptive... 7623: 6926: 6400: 6206: 6196: 6160: 5863: 5776: 5751:Waldrop, M. Mitchell (February 9, 2016). 5618: 5297: 5257: 4351: 2542: 2201:Witkowski, Wallace (September 22, 2022). 1885:The great Moore's law compensator (TGMLC) 1816:– A similar prediction (sometimes called 1135:(CMOS): The CMOS process was invented by 7078:"Speeding net traffic with tiny mirrors" 5970:Productivity Trends in the United States 5727:"Moore's Law is dead, says Gordon Moore" 5491:Anthony, Sebastian (February 23, 2015). 5218:Connatser, Matthew (December 24, 2023). 4024:Lasers in Our Lives / 50 Years of Impact 2961:"Gordon Moore Says Aloha to Moore's Law" 2196: 2194: 2021: – Technological advancement theory 1684:computing, and AI and machine learning. 1363:GB NAND flash chips. In September 2007, 1045:also increases exponentially over time. 758:Moore's prediction has been used in the 7564:. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press. 6315:"Trapped on Technology's Trailing Edge" 6179:; Ho, Mun S.; Stiroh, Kevin J. (2008). 5613:(Special Centennial Issue): 1720–1749. 4867:"Samsung Confirms 24 Layers in 3D NAND" 3830:IBM Journal of Research and Development 2267:. Vol. III. IEEE. pp. 76–77. 2225: 2223: 2137: 2095: 1746:with over 18 billion transistors. 1133:Complementary metal–oxide–semiconductor 766:, thus functioning to some extent as a 607: 507: 399: 383: 43: 7895:Differential technological development 7249:Kennedy, Randall C. (April 14, 2008). 6824:Aizcorbe, Ana; Kortum, Samuel (2004). 6585:End of Growth of Single Program Speed? 6583:from the original on October 9, 2022. 6456:from the original on November 11, 2013 6034:; Ho, Mun S.; Samuels, Jon D. (2014). 5746: 5744: 5698:Schwierz, Frank (November 1–4, 2011). 3930:. Bellingham, Washington: SPIE Press. 2986:Meador, Dan; Goldsmith, Kevin (2022). 2230:Machkovech, Sam (September 27, 2022). 1857:dense wavelength-division multiplexing 1787:Quality adjusted price of IT equipment 1750:Density at minimum cost per transistor 1326:Samsung and TSMC plan to manufacture 3 1033:, also called Rock's law (named after 704:is the observation that the number of 7111:"Nielsen's Law of Internet Bandwidth" 7076:Robinson, Gail (September 26, 2000). 6489:from the original on October 9, 2022. 5809:"IRDS launch announcement 4 MAY 2016" 5076:"Samsung makes 1TB flash eUFS module" 4727:from the original on October 9, 2022. 4385:Johnson, Dexter (February 22, 2010). 2924:. Walter de Gruyter. pp. 206–7. 720:of a historical trend. Rather than a 7: 7608:"The Lives and Death of Moore's Law" 7424:Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences 7409:"The American Journal of Psychology" 7223:"Moore's Law Corollary: Pixel Power" 7177:from the original on October 9, 2022 6291:from the original on October 9, 2022 6236:from the original on October 9, 2022 6048:from the original on October 9, 2022 6009:from the original on October 9, 2022 5836:. 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Archived from 3234:Shilov, Anton (July 31, 2019). 3087:Bradshaw, Tim (July 16, 2015). 2067: – Law in machine learning 1426:3D IC stacking to produce a 512 1367:introduced 24-layer 3D IC, a 16 1043:semiconductor fabrication plant 1027:Extreme ultraviolet lithography 929:"Moore's law is a violation of 735:The observation is named after 7652:Slide show of microchip growth 7606:Tuomi, Ilkka (November 2002). 6886:Walter, Chip (July 25, 2005). 6794:Sun, Liyang (April 25, 2014). 5517:Cooke, Mike (April–May 2011). 5385:) ranging from 0.5v to 1.0v". 5252:. 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LAMBDA OpticalSystems 6526:Mistry, Kaizad (2011). 6411:10.1145/1941487.1941507 5607:Proceedings of the IEEE 5545:Applied Physics Letters 5286:Physical Review Applied 4630:The Wall Street Journal 4251:Brozek, Tomasz (2017). 4230:10.1109/IEDM.1988.32796 3604:Computer History Museum 1820:) was made in 2005 for 1529:atomic layer deposition 1513:indium gallium arsenide 1456:node, using FinFET and 846:Fairchild Semiconductor 809:, and economic growth. 741:Fairchild Semiconductor 633:Exploratory engineering 523:Causal layered analysis 7974:Technology forecasting 7969:Technological paradigm 7942:Proactionary principle 7484:Jindal, R. P. (2009). 6761:Aizcorbe, Ana (2005). 5670:10.1038/nnano.2007.300 5389:. IEEE. pp. 1–4. 5282:Manipatruni, Sasikanth 3903:10.1109/EDL.1982.25476 3796:Solid State Technology 2749:Moore, Gordon (2006). 2713:Moore, Gordon (1975). 2688:. 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Prior to this, 1103:for Moore's law. The 1066: 1037:), which is that the 1018:Further information: 954: 857: 538:Cross impact analysis 24: 8107:Technological change 7947:Technological change 7890:Collingridge dilemma 7560:Mody, Cyrus (2016). 7032:"Board of Directors" 7020:on October 12, 2007. 6981:Hecht, Jeff (2016). 6802:on November 11, 2014 6634:. pp. 110–120. 6340:"Qualcomm Processor" 5941:The Atlantic Monthly 4772:on November 23, 2010 4657:www.tomshardware.com 4293:on February 22, 2007 4224:. pp. 222–225. 2170:Electronics Magazine 1835:Fiber-optic capacity 1768:performance per watt 1664:Gordon Moore in 2006 1623:graphene electronics 1601:Biological computing 1081:floating-gate MOSFET 920:Shortly after 1975, 739:, the co-founder of 730:experience-curve law 8004:Technology scouting 7979:Accelerating change 7378:Ebbinghaus, Hermann 7199:. November 21, 2011 6937:2012arXiv1201.5543P 6892:Scientific American 6673:"US: is I.T. over?" 6567:Patterson, David A. 6346:. November 8, 2017. 5834:"After Moore's Law" 5769:2016Natur.530..144W 5662:2007NatNa...2..605A 5557:2011ApPhL..98i3501Z 5351:2010NatNa...5..266B 5308:2016PhRvP...5a4002M 5268:2013arXiv1302.0244N 5199:on December 4, 2018 5130:IBM (May 6, 2021). 4964:on January 22, 2019 4924:10.1038/nature06932 4916:2008Natur.453...80S 4800:. September 5, 2007 4588:2012NatNa...7..242F 4512:2013Nanos...5.2437L 4430:2011NatNa...6..343C 4323:on November 6, 2012 4001:1976ApPhL..29..707B 3895:1982IEDL....3...53J 3238:. www.anandtech.com 3176:10.1109/MC.2015.363 3016:Technowize Magazine 2967:on November 6, 2009 2424:on October 29, 2012 2327:(August 31, 2009). 2007:Accelerating change 1979:terabits per second 1794:year in 2010–2013. 1627:graphene nanoribbon 1543:Gurtej Singh Sandhu 1519:, quantum well and 1417:non-volatile memory 1407:In 2015, Intel and 1398:Stanford University 1384:Samsung Electronics 996:Samsung Electronics 772:digital electronics 749:doubling every year 663:Technology scouting 410:Accelerating change 8077:Digital Revolution 8067:1965 introductions 8021:Technology roadmap 7804:Moore's second law 7228:The New York Times 7090:on January 7, 2010 6958:. UK: The Register 6198:10.1257/jep.22.1.3 6177:Jorgenson, Dale W. 6145:Jorgenson, Dale W. 6093:(September 2006). 6032:Jorgenson, Dale W. 5637:Avouris, Phaedon; 5081:Electronics Weekly 4520:10.1039/C3NR33738C 4338:. pp. 58–59. 4198:on August 25, 2011 4112:on March 31, 2010. 3420:Cutress, Dr. Ian. 3301:on August 25, 2019 2525:Tuomi, I. (2002). 2362:The New York Times 2333:The New York Times 2299:The New York Times 2293:(April 18, 2005). 2157:(April 19, 1965). 2124:Active power = CVf 2065:Neural scaling law 1829:smaller grain size 1728: 1615: 1582:Cornell University 1553:class and smaller. 1441:(QLC) technology ( 1235:multi-gate MOSFETs 1227: 1201:yield, additional 1097:Integrated circuit 1085: 1031:Moore's second law 1020:Moore's second law 1014:Moore's second law 984: 770:. Advancements in 710:integrated circuit 653:Speculative design 533:Consensus forecast 528:Chain-linked model 490:Resource depletion 39: 8054: 8053: 7837: 7836: 7590:978-0-465-05564-7 7507:978-1-4244-3831-0 7320:978-0-674-05362-5 6956:theregister.co.uk 6915:Physics in Canada 6775:on August 9, 2017 6649:978-3-642-18205-1 6563:Hennessy, John L. 5966:Kendrick, John W. 5886:. September 2015. 5763:(7589): 144–147. 5565:10.1063/1.3559607 5446:978-1-4577-0505-2 5404:978-1-4244-5639-0 4958:news.stanford.edu 4480:978-0-385-53080-4 4363:978-1-4244-0005-8 4317:Nanoparticle News 4283:"Company Profile" 4142:978-1-4244-2377-4 3965:SPIE Professional 3937:978-0-8194-0271-4 3924:Jain, K. 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Dennard 835:Douglas Engelbart 699: 698: 585:Scenario planning 448:Space exploration 379: 378: 31:transistor counts 8114: 8042: 8041: 7989:Horizon scanning 7905:Ephemeralization 7864: 7857: 7850: 7841: 7728: 7721: 7714: 7705: 7694: 7629: 7627: 7602: 7575: 7556: 7520: 7519: 7492:. pp. 1–6. 7481: 7475: 7474: 7446: 7440: 7439: 7419: 7413: 7412: 7404: 7398: 7397: 7374: 7368: 7367: 7331: 7325: 7324: 7304: 7298: 7295: 7289: 7288: 7279:. Hadham Press. 7272: 7266: 7265: 7263: 7261: 7246: 7240: 7239: 7237: 7235: 7221:(June 7, 2006). 7219:Myhrvold, Nathan 7215: 7209: 7208: 7206: 7204: 7193: 7187: 7186: 7184: 7182: 7176: 7169: 7155: 7149: 7148: 7146: 7144: 7129: 7123: 7122: 7120: 7118: 7106: 7100: 7099: 7097: 7095: 7086:. Archived from 7073: 7067: 7066: 7064: 7062: 7050: 7044: 7043: 7041: 7039: 7028: 7022: 7021: 7016:. 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Archived from 6091:Liddle, David E. 6087: 6081: 6080: 6064: 6058: 6057: 6055: 6053: 6047: 6040: 6028: 6019: 6018: 6016: 6014: 6008: 5997: 5989:Moore, Gordon E. 5985: 5974: 5973: 5962: 5953: 5952: 5950: 5948: 5934:(January 2001). 5928: 5922: 5921: 5908: 5902: 5901: 5900:. March 6, 2020. 5894: 5888: 5887: 5876: 5870: 5869: 5867: 5855: 5849: 5848: 5843: 5841: 5829: 5823: 5822: 5820: 5813: 5805: 5799: 5798: 5780: 5748: 5739: 5738: 5736: 5734: 5722: 5716: 5715: 5705: 5695: 5689: 5688: 5686: 5684: 5647: 5634: 5625: 5624: 5622: 5598: 5592: 5591: 5589: 5587: 5575: 5569: 5568: 5540: 5534: 5533: 5531: 5529: 5523: 5514: 5508: 5507: 5505: 5503: 5488: 5482: 5481: 5479: 5477: 5465: 5459: 5458: 5423: 5417: 5416: 5377: 5371: 5370: 5334: 5328: 5327: 5301: 5278: 5272: 5271: 5261: 5245: 5239: 5238: 5233: 5231: 5215: 5209: 5208: 5206: 5204: 5198: 5192:. 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Archived from 3284: 3278: 3277: 3275: 3273: 3254: 3248: 3247: 3245: 3243: 3231: 3220: 3219: 3217: 3215: 3200: 3191: 3190: 3159: 3153: 3152: 3146: 3144: 3129: 3123: 3122: 3110: 3104: 3103: 3101: 3099: 3084: 3078: 3077: 3059: 3053: 3052: 3046: 3044: 3034: 3028: 3027: 3025: 3023: 3008: 3002: 3001: 2983: 2977: 2976: 2974: 2972: 2957: 2951: 2950: 2948: 2946: 2915: 2906: 2905: 2903: 2901: 2896:. March 23, 2005 2886: 2880: 2879: 2877: 2875: 2870:on July 13, 2007 2857:in reference to 2855: 2849: 2848: 2830: 2824: 2823: 2817: 2815: 2810:on June 17, 2012 2801: 2793: 2787: 2786: 2784: 2782: 2777:on March 4, 2016 2776: 2770:. Archived from 2755: 2746: 2740: 2739: 2734: 2732: 2726: 2719: 2710: 2701: 2700: 2695: 2693: 2677: 2671: 2670: 2658: 2639: 2638: 2605: 2599: 2598: 2596: 2594: 2583: 2572: 2571: 2555: 2549: 2548: 2546: 2522: 2511: 2510: 2508: 2506: 2494: 2485: 2484: 2482: 2480: 2475:. April 22, 2005 2463: 2457: 2456: 2454: 2452: 2447:. ZDNET News.com 2440: 2434: 2433: 2431: 2429: 2423: 2412: 2404: 2398: 2397: 2379: 2373: 2372: 2370: 2368: 2350: 2344: 2343: 2341: 2339: 2321: 2315: 2314: 2312: 2310: 2305:on March 4, 2012 2301:. Archived from 2287: 2281: 2280: 2253: 2247: 2246: 2244: 2242: 2227: 2218: 2217: 2215: 2213: 2198: 2189: 2188: 2186: 2184: 2178: 2163: 2155:Moore, Gordon E. 2151: 2125: 2122: 2116: 2109: 2103: 2100: 2019:Ephemeralization 1901:Microsoft Office 1887:, also known as 1849:Network capacity 1799:quality-adjusted 1758:photolithography 1717:Limits to Growth 1665: 1490:tunnel junctions 1448: 1433: 1429: 1370: 1362: 1348: 1333: 1329: 1315:node chips with 1176:photolithography 1165:C. Grant Willson 1110:was invented by 1059:Transistor count 963:CPU, and a 2007 907:(MOS) technology 776:quality-adjusted 691: 684: 677: 590:Systems analysis 575:Horizon scanning 548:Real-time Delphi 485:Population cycle 415:Cashless society 395: 381: 371: 364: 357: 327:Transistor count 280: 262: 253: 244: 235: 226: 217: 208: 199: 190: 181: 172: 127: 118: 109: 100: 91: 82: 59: 41: 8122: 8121: 8117: 8116: 8115: 8113: 8112: 8111: 8082:Eponymous rules 8057: 8056: 8055: 8050: 8030: 7873: 7868: 7838: 7833: 7818: 7774:Gustafson's law 7740: 7732: 7685: 7640:Intel press kit 7636: 7605: 7591: 7578: 7572: 7559: 7545: 7532: 7529: 7527:Further reading 7524: 7523: 7508: 7483: 7482: 7478: 7448: 7447: 7443: 7421: 7420: 7416: 7406: 7405: 7401: 7394: 7376: 7375: 7371: 7333: 7332: 7328: 7321: 7306: 7305: 7301: 7296: 7292: 7274: 7273: 7269: 7259: 7257: 7248: 7247: 7243: 7233: 7231: 7217: 7216: 7212: 7202: 7200: 7195: 7194: 7190: 7180: 7178: 7174: 7167: 7161:; Farrow, Rik. 7159:Sirer, Emin Gün 7157: 7156: 7152: 7142: 7140: 7131: 7130: 7126: 7116: 7114: 7108: 7107: 7103: 7093: 7091: 7075: 7074: 7070: 7060: 7058: 7053:Tehrani, Rich. 7052: 7051: 7047: 7037: 7035: 7030: 7029: 7025: 7008: 7007: 7003: 6993: 6991: 6980: 6979: 6975: 6961: 6959: 6949: 6948: 6944: 6912: 6911: 6907: 6897: 6895: 6885: 6884: 6880: 6870: 6868: 6856: 6855: 6851: 6841: 6839: 6835: 6828: 6823: 6822: 6818: 6805: 6803: 6793: 6792: 6788: 6778: 6776: 6772: 6765: 6760: 6759: 6755: 6745: 6743: 6737: 6736: 6729: 6717: 6710: 6703: 6702: 6698: 6688: 6686: 6682: 6675: 6670: 6669: 6665: 6650: 6625: 6624: 6620: 6610: 6608: 6599: 6598: 6591: 6580: 6573: 6561: 6560: 6553: 6543: 6541: 6537: 6530: 6525: 6524: 6520: 6510: 6508: 6499: 6498: 6494: 6486: 6479: 6474: 6473: 6469: 6459: 6457: 6453: 6446: 6441: 6440: 6433: 6423: 6421: 6402:10.1.1.227.3582 6382: 6381: 6377: 6367: 6365: 6356: 6355: 6351: 6338: 6337: 6333: 6323: 6321: 6311:Sandborn, Peter 6309: 6308: 6304: 6294: 6292: 6288: 6281: 6276: 6275: 6271: 6261: 6259: 6254: 6253: 6249: 6239: 6237: 6233: 6226: 6221: 6220: 6216: 6175: 6174: 6170: 6162:10.1.1.198.9555 6143: 6142: 6138: 6128: 6126: 6089: 6088: 6084: 6066: 6065: 6061: 6051: 6049: 6045: 6038: 6030: 6029: 6022: 6012: 6010: 6006: 5995: 5987: 5986: 5977: 5964: 5963: 5956: 5946: 5944: 5932:Rauch, Jonathan 5930: 5929: 5925: 5910: 5909: 5905: 5896: 5895: 5891: 5878: 5877: 5873: 5857: 5856: 5852: 5839: 5837: 5831: 5830: 5826: 5818: 5811: 5807: 5806: 5802: 5778:10.1038/530144a 5750: 5749: 5742: 5732: 5730: 5724: 5723: 5719: 5697: 5696: 5692: 5682: 5680: 5656:(10): 605–615. 5645: 5636: 5635: 5628: 5600: 5599: 5595: 5585: 5583: 5577: 5576: 5572: 5542: 5541: 5537: 5527: 5525: 5521: 5516: 5515: 5511: 5501: 5499: 5490: 5489: 5485: 5475: 5473: 5467: 5466: 5462: 5447: 5425: 5424: 5420: 5405: 5384: 5379: 5378: 5374: 5336: 5335: 5331: 5280: 5279: 5275: 5247: 5246: 5242: 5229: 5227: 5217: 5216: 5212: 5202: 5200: 5196: 5189: 5185: 5184: 5180: 5167: 5165: 5156: 5155: 5151: 5141: 5139: 5129: 5128: 5124: 5114: 5112: 5101: 5100: 5096: 5086: 5084: 5073: 5072: 5068: 5058: 5056: 5045: 5044: 5040: 5030: 5028: 5019: 5018: 5014: 5001: 5000: 4996: 4982: 4981: 4977: 4967: 4965: 4952: 4951: 4947: 4910:(7191): 80–83. 4901: 4900: 4896: 4883: 4882: 4878: 4865:Clarke, Peter. 4864: 4863: 4859: 4852:www.samsung.com 4846: 4845: 4841: 4831: 4829: 4828:. June 12, 2007 4818: 4817: 4813: 4803: 4801: 4790: 4789: 4785: 4775: 4773: 4760: 4759: 4755: 4737: 4736: 4732: 4724: 4718: 4691: 4686: 4685: 4681: 4675:www.eetimes.com 4668: 4667: 4663: 4650: 4649: 4645: 4635: 4633: 4624: 4623: 4619: 4576:Nat Nanotechnol 4573: 4572: 4568: 4558: 4556: 4547: 4546: 4542: 4532: 4530: 4493: 4492: 4488: 4481: 4465: 4464: 4460: 4450: 4448: 4410: 4409: 4405: 4395: 4393: 4384: 4383: 4379: 4364: 4333: 4332: 4328: 4311: 4310: 4306: 4296: 4294: 4281: 4280: 4276: 4269: 4261:. p. 117. 4250: 4249: 4245: 4216: 4215: 4211: 4201: 4199: 4190: 4189: 4185: 4175: 4173: 4164: 4163: 4159: 4143: 4122: 4121: 4117: 4109: 4094: 4086: 4085: 4081: 4071: 4069: 4065: 4058: 4054: 4053: 4049: 4040: 4038: 4034: 4027: 4021: 4020: 4016: 4009:10.1063/1.88934 3986: 3985: 3981: 3976: 3972: 3958: 3957: 3953: 3938: 3923: 3922: 3918: 3876: 3875: 3871: 3864: 3857: 3856: 3852: 3842: 3840: 3836: 3825: 3820: 3819: 3815: 3805: 3803: 3789: 3788: 3784: 3774: 3772: 3759: 3758: 3754: 3744: 3743: 3739: 3717: 3716: 3712: 3707:Wayback Machine 3694: 3693: 3689: 3681: 3675: 3673: 3669: 3661: 3655: 3653: 3649: 3624: 3623: 3619: 3609: 3607: 3597: 3596: 3592: 3584: 3578: 3576: 3572: 3564: 3558: 3556: 3552: 3542: 3540: 3534: 3533: 3529: 3519: 3517: 3513: 3506: 3501: 3500: 3496: 3486: 3484: 3475: 3474: 3470: 3456: 3454: 3450: 3445: 3444: 3440: 3430: 3428: 3419: 3418: 3414: 3405: 3403: 3402:on May 14, 2020 3392: 3391: 3387: 3377: 3375: 3367:Shilov, Anton. 3366: 3365: 3361: 3345: 3344: 3340: 3330: 3328: 3327:. June 24, 2019 3319: 3318: 3314: 3304: 3302: 3286: 3285: 3281: 3271: 3269: 3256: 3255: 3251: 3241: 3239: 3233: 3232: 3223: 3213: 3211: 3202: 3201: 3194: 3161: 3160: 3156: 3142: 3140: 3131: 3130: 3126: 3119:Financial Times 3112: 3111: 3107: 3097: 3095: 3093:Financial Times 3086: 3085: 3081: 3074: 3061: 3060: 3056: 3042: 3040: 3036: 3035: 3031: 3021: 3019: 3010: 3009: 3005: 2998: 2985: 2984: 2980: 2970: 2968: 2959: 2958: 2954: 2944: 2942: 2932: 2917: 2916: 2909: 2899: 2897: 2888: 2887: 2883: 2873: 2871: 2862: 2859:Gordon E. Moore 2856: 2852: 2845: 2832: 2831: 2827: 2813: 2811: 2799: 2795: 2794: 2790: 2780: 2778: 2774: 2768: 2753: 2748: 2747: 2743: 2730: 2728: 2724: 2717: 2712: 2711: 2704: 2691: 2689: 2679: 2678: 2674: 2660: 2659: 2642: 2627: 2607: 2606: 2602: 2592: 2590: 2585: 2584: 2575: 2557: 2556: 2552: 2524: 2523: 2514: 2504: 2502: 2496: 2495: 2488: 2478: 2476: 2472:BBC News Online 2465: 2464: 2460: 2450: 2448: 2442: 2441: 2437: 2427: 2425: 2421: 2410: 2406: 2405: 2401: 2394: 2381: 2380: 2376: 2366: 2364: 2352: 2351: 2347: 2337: 2335: 2323: 2322: 2318: 2308: 2306: 2289: 2288: 2284: 2255: 2254: 2250: 2240: 2238: 2229: 2228: 2221: 2211: 2209: 2200: 2199: 2192: 2182: 2180: 2176: 2161: 2153: 2152: 2139: 2134: 2129: 2128: 2123: 2119: 2110: 2106: 2101: 2097: 2092: 2003: 1975:bits per second 1973:has risen from 1921:Information Age 1822:hard disk drive 1777:thermal runaway 1764:Dennard scaling 1733: 1698: 1666: 1663: 1645:In April 2005, 1643: 1498: 1446: 1439:quad-level cell 1431: 1427: 1368: 1360: 1346: 1331: 1327: 1255:gate-all-around 1243:gate-all-around 1215: 1203:layers of metal 1061: 1051: 1022: 1016: 976:clock frequency 882:Dennard scaling 831: 803:digital cameras 783:memory capacity 695: 623:Critical design 570:Future workshop 470:Kardashev scale 465:Kondratiev wave 385:Futures studies 375: 346: 342:Nanoelectronics 293: 287: 278: 269: 260: 251: 242: 233: 224: 215: 206: 197: 188: 179: 170: 125: 116: 107: 98: 89: 80: 67: 48: 46: 35:microprocessors 17: 12: 11: 5: 8120: 8118: 8110: 8109: 8104: 8102:Rules of thumb 8099: 8094: 8089: 8084: 8079: 8074: 8069: 8059: 8058: 8052: 8051: 8049: 8048: 8035: 8032: 8031: 8029: 8028: 8023: 8018: 8013: 8008: 8007: 8006: 8001: 7996: 7991: 7986: 7981: 7971: 7966: 7961: 7956: 7955: 7954: 7944: 7939: 7934: 7933: 7932: 7927: 7922: 7917: 7907: 7902: 7897: 7892: 7887: 7881: 7879: 7875: 7874: 7869: 7867: 7866: 7859: 7852: 7844: 7835: 7834: 7823: 7820: 7819: 7817: 7816: 7811: 7809:Pollack's rule 7806: 7801: 7796: 7794:Metcalfe's law 7791: 7786: 7781: 7776: 7771: 7766: 7761: 7756: 7751: 7745: 7742: 7741: 7733: 7731: 7730: 7723: 7716: 7708: 7702: 7701: 7695: 7683: 7674: 7664: 7659: 7653: 7647: 7635: 7634:External links 7632: 7631: 7630: 7603: 7589: 7576: 7571:978-0262035491 7570: 7557: 7543: 7528: 7525: 7522: 7521: 7506: 7476: 7441: 7430:(4): 122–128. 7414: 7399: 7392: 7369: 7342:(3): 203–214. 7326: 7319: 7299: 7290: 7267: 7241: 7210: 7188: 7150: 7138:The Australian 7124: 7101: 7068: 7045: 7023: 7001: 6973: 6942: 6905: 6888:"Kryder's Law" 6878: 6866:New York Times 6849: 6816: 6786: 6753: 6727: 6696: 6663: 6648: 6618: 6589: 6551: 6518: 6492: 6467: 6431: 6375: 6349: 6331: 6313:(April 2008). 6302: 6269: 6247: 6214: 6168: 6136: 6082: 6059: 6020: 5975: 5954: 5923: 5903: 5889: 5884:New York Times 5871: 5850: 5824: 5800: 5740: 5717: 5690: 5626: 5593: 5570: 5535: 5509: 5483: 5460: 5445: 5418: 5403: 5382: 5372: 5345:(4): 266–270. 5329: 5273: 5240: 5224:Tom's Hardware 5210: 5178: 5149: 5122: 5094: 5066: 5038: 5012: 4994: 4975: 4945: 4894: 4876: 4857: 4839: 4811: 4783: 4753: 4730: 4716: 4679: 4661: 4643: 4632:. July 9, 2015 4617: 4582:(4): 242–246. 4566: 4555:. June 5, 2007 4540: 4486: 4479: 4458: 4424:(6): 343–347. 4403: 4377: 4362: 4326: 4304: 4274: 4267: 4243: 4218:Masuoka, Fujio 4209: 4183: 4157: 4141: 4115: 4079: 4047: 4014: 3979: 3970: 3951: 3936: 3916: 3869: 3850: 3813: 3782: 3752: 3737: 3710: 3687: 3667: 3647: 3630:Wanlass, Frank 3626:Sah, Chih-Tang 3617: 3590: 3570: 3550: 3527: 3516:on May 6, 2006 3502:Dorsch, Jeff. 3494: 3468: 3438: 3412: 3385: 3359: 3338: 3312: 3279: 3249: 3221: 3192: 3154: 3124: 3105: 3079: 3072: 3054: 3029: 3003: 2996: 2978: 2952: 2930: 2907: 2881: 2850: 2844:978-0941901413 2843: 2825: 2788: 2766: 2741: 2720:. Intel Corp. 2702: 2672: 2640: 2625: 2600: 2573: 2550: 2512: 2486: 2458: 2435: 2399: 2392: 2374: 2345: 2316: 2282: 2248: 2219: 2190: 2136: 2135: 2133: 2130: 2127: 2126: 2117: 2104: 2094: 2093: 2091: 2088: 2087: 2086: 2080: 2074: 2068: 2062: 2057: 2052: 2046: 2040: 2034: 2028: 2022: 2016: 2010: 2002: 1999: 1893:software bloat 1861:dot-com bubble 1841:, in honor of 1732: 1729: 1697: 1694: 1661: 1642: 1639: 1598: 1597: 1589: 1574: 1562: 1554: 1497: 1494: 1469: 1468: 1461: 1450: 1420: 1405: 1394: 1387: 1372: 1335: 1324: 1309: 1301: 1297: 1289: 1286:nanoelectronic 1274: 1214: 1211: 1207: 1206: 1188: 1184:excimer lasers 1172: 1158: 1144: 1130: 1075:memory allows 1069:MOSFET scaling 1050: 1047: 1015: 1012: 988:Brian Krzanich 918: 917: 914: 911: 908: 903:The advent of 865:the law cites 830: 827: 779:microprocessor 722:law of physics 697: 696: 694: 693: 686: 679: 671: 668: 667: 666: 665: 660: 655: 650: 645: 640: 635: 630: 628:Design fiction 625: 617: 616: 605: 604: 603: 602: 600:Trend analysis 597: 592: 587: 582: 577: 572: 567: 562: 557: 552: 551: 550: 540: 535: 530: 525: 520: 512: 511: 505: 504: 503: 502: 497: 492: 487: 482: 477: 472: 467: 462: 457: 456: 455: 450: 445: 440: 435: 430: 422: 417: 412: 404: 403: 397: 396: 388: 387: 377: 376: 374: 373: 366: 359: 351: 348: 347: 345: 344: 339: 334: 329: 324: 319: 309: 304: 299: 292: 289: 288: 286: 285: 274: 271: 270: 268: 267: 258: 249: 240: 231: 222: 213: 204: 195: 186: 177: 168: 162: 156: 150: 144: 138: 132: 123: 114: 105: 96: 87: 77: 74: 73: 65:MOSFET scaling 61: 60: 52: 51: 15: 13: 10: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 8119: 8108: 8105: 8103: 8100: 8098: 8095: 8093: 8090: 8088: 8085: 8083: 8080: 8078: 8075: 8073: 8070: 8068: 8065: 8064: 8062: 8047: 8046: 8037: 8036: 8033: 8027: 8026:Transhumanism 8024: 8022: 8019: 8017: 8014: 8012: 8009: 8005: 8002: 8000: 7997: 7995: 7992: 7990: 7987: 7985: 7982: 7980: 7977: 7976: 7975: 7972: 7970: 7967: 7965: 7962: 7960: 7957: 7953: 7950: 7949: 7948: 7945: 7943: 7940: 7938: 7935: 7931: 7928: 7926: 7923: 7921: 7918: 7916: 7913: 7912: 7911: 7908: 7906: 7903: 7901: 7898: 7896: 7893: 7891: 7888: 7886: 7883: 7882: 7880: 7876: 7872: 7865: 7860: 7858: 7853: 7851: 7846: 7845: 7842: 7832:(postulation) 7831: 7827: 7826:rule of thumb 7821: 7815: 7812: 7810: 7807: 7805: 7802: 7800: 7797: 7795: 7792: 7790: 7787: 7785: 7782: 7780: 7777: 7775: 7772: 7770: 7767: 7765: 7762: 7760: 7757: 7755: 7752: 7750: 7747: 7746: 7743: 7739: 7736: 7729: 7724: 7722: 7717: 7715: 7710: 7709: 7706: 7699: 7696: 7692: 7688: 7684: 7682: 7678: 7675: 7672: 7671:archive.today 7668: 7665: 7663: 7660: 7657: 7654: 7651: 7648: 7645: 7641: 7638: 7637: 7633: 7626: 7621: 7617: 7613: 7609: 7604: 7600: 7596: 7592: 7586: 7582: 7577: 7573: 7567: 7563: 7558: 7554: 7550: 7546: 7544:0-941901-41-6 7540: 7536: 7531: 7530: 7526: 7517: 7513: 7509: 7503: 7499: 7495: 7491: 7487: 7480: 7477: 7472: 7468: 7464: 7460: 7456: 7452: 7451:IEEE Spectrum 7445: 7442: 7437: 7436:10.2514/8.155 7433: 7429: 7425: 7418: 7415: 7410: 7403: 7400: 7395: 7393:9780722229286 7389: 7385: 7384: 7379: 7373: 7370: 7365: 7361: 7357: 7353: 7349: 7345: 7341: 7337: 7330: 7327: 7322: 7316: 7312: 7311: 7303: 7300: 7294: 7291: 7286: 7282: 7278: 7271: 7268: 7256: 7252: 7245: 7242: 7230: 7229: 7224: 7220: 7214: 7211: 7198: 7192: 7189: 7173: 7166: 7165: 7160: 7154: 7151: 7139: 7135: 7128: 7125: 7112: 7105: 7102: 7089: 7085: 7084: 7079: 7072: 7069: 7056: 7049: 7046: 7033: 7027: 7024: 7019: 7015: 7011: 7005: 7002: 6990: 6989: 6984: 6977: 6974: 6970: 6957: 6953: 6946: 6943: 6938: 6934: 6929: 6924: 6920: 6916: 6909: 6906: 6893: 6889: 6882: 6879: 6867: 6863: 6859: 6858:Markoff, John 6853: 6850: 6834: 6827: 6820: 6817: 6813: 6801: 6797: 6790: 6787: 6771: 6764: 6757: 6754: 6741: 6734: 6732: 6728: 6724: 6716: 6709: 6708: 6700: 6697: 6681: 6674: 6667: 6664: 6659: 6655: 6651: 6645: 6641: 6637: 6633: 6629: 6622: 6619: 6606: 6602: 6596: 6594: 6590: 6586: 6579: 6572: 6568: 6564: 6558: 6556: 6552: 6536: 6529: 6522: 6519: 6507: 6503: 6496: 6493: 6485: 6478: 6471: 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2304: 2300: 2296: 2292: 2291:Markoff, John 2286: 2283: 2278: 2274: 2270: 2266: 2262: 2258: 2252: 2249: 2241:September 28, 2237: 2233: 2226: 2224: 2220: 2212:September 23, 2208: 2204: 2197: 2195: 2191: 2175: 2171: 2167: 2160: 2156: 2150: 2148: 2146: 2144: 2142: 2138: 2131: 2121: 2118: 2114: 2108: 2105: 2099: 2096: 2089: 2084: 2081: 2078: 2075: 2072: 2069: 2066: 2063: 2061: 2058: 2056: 2053: 2050: 2047: 2044: 2041: 2038: 2035: 2032: 2029: 2026: 2023: 2020: 2017: 2014: 2011: 2008: 2005: 2004: 2000: 1998: 1996: 1995: 1994:Swanson's law 1990: 1988: 1987: 1982: 1980: 1976: 1972: 1968: 1964: 1960: 1959: 1954: 1951: 1950: 1945: 1943: 1942: 1937: 1934: 1933:The Economist 1930: 1929: 1928:Carlson curve 1924: 1922: 1917: 1913: 1912:Fremont Rider 1909: 1905: 1902: 1898: 1894: 1890: 1886: 1882: 1880: 1876: 1872: 1868: 1866: 1865:Nielsen's Law 1862: 1858: 1854: 1850: 1846: 1844: 1840: 1836: 1832: 1830: 1826: 1825:areal density 1823: 1819: 1815: 1811: 1809: 1808:semi-log plot 1803: 1800: 1795: 1792: 1788: 1784: 1780: 1778: 1772: 1769: 1765: 1761: 1759: 1753: 1751: 1747: 1745: 1741: 1737: 1730: 1724: 1720: 1718: 1714: 1709: 1705: 1703: 1695: 1693: 1691: 1687: 1681: 1679: 1674: 1672: 1660: 1655: 1653: 1648: 1640: 1638: 1635: 1631: 1628: 1624: 1620: 1612: 1608: 1604: 1602: 1595: 1592:reduction to 1590: 1587: 1583: 1579: 1575: 1572: 1567: 1563: 1559: 1555: 1552: 1548: 1544: 1540: 1536: 1533: 1530: 1526: 1525: 1524: 1522: 1518: 1514: 1509: 1507: 1503: 1495: 1493: 1491: 1487: 1481: 1479: 1475: 1466: 1462: 1459: 1455: 1451: 1444: 1440: 1436: 1425: 1421: 1418: 1414: 1410: 1406: 1403: 1399: 1395: 1392: 1388: 1385: 1380: 1376: 1373: 1366: 1358: 1355: 1351: 1344: 1340: 1336: 1325: 1322: 1318: 1314: 1310: 1306: 1302: 1298: 1294: 1290: 1287: 1283: 1279: 1275: 1272: 1268: 1264: 1263:Fujio Masuoka 1260: 1256: 1252: 1251: 1250: 1248: 1244: 1240: 1236: 1232: 1224: 1219: 1213:Recent trends 1212: 1210: 1204: 1200: 1196: 1192: 1189: 1185: 1181: 1177: 1173: 1170: 1166: 1162: 1159: 1156: 1152: 1148: 1145: 1142: 1141:Frank Wanlass 1138: 1137:Chih-Tang Sah 1134: 1131: 1128: 1124: 1123:monolithic IC 1121: 1117: 1113: 1109: 1106: 1102: 1101:raison d'être 1098: 1095: 1094: 1093: 1091: 1082: 1078: 1074: 1070: 1067:The trend of 1065: 1060: 1056: 1048: 1046: 1044: 1040: 1036: 1032: 1028: 1021: 1011: 1009: 1005: 1001: 997: 993: 989: 981: 977: 973: 969: 966: 962: 958: 953: 949: 947: 943: 938: 936: 932: 927: 923: 915: 912: 909: 906: 902: 901: 900: 898: 893: 891: 890:areal density 887: 886:power density 883: 879: 875: 870: 868: 861: 856: 853: 852: 847: 842: 840: 836: 828: 826: 824: 823:Pat Gelsinger 820: 816: 810: 808: 804: 800: 796: 792: 788: 784: 780: 777: 773: 769: 765: 761: 756: 754: 750: 746: 742: 738: 733: 731: 727: 723: 719: 715: 711: 707: 703: 692: 687: 685: 680: 678: 673: 672: 670: 669: 664: 661: 659: 656: 654: 651: 649: 646: 644: 641: 639: 636: 634: 631: 629: 626: 624: 621: 620: 619: 618: 615: 611: 606: 601: 598: 596: 595:Threatcasting 593: 591: 588: 586: 583: 581: 578: 576: 573: 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7784:Koomey's law 7769:Grosch's law 7764:Edholm's law 7759:Brooks's law 7749:Amdahl's law 7690: 7681:ASML Holding 7615: 7612:First Monday 7611: 7580: 7561: 7534: 7489: 7479: 7457:(7): 58–60. 7454: 7450: 7444: 7427: 7423: 7417: 7402: 7382: 7372: 7339: 7335: 7329: 7309: 7302: 7293: 7276: 7270: 7258:. 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Techworld 5472:. Anandtech 5226:. Future US 4797:Korea Times 4176:October 17, 3995:(11): 707. 3806:November 1, 3726:(18): 204. 3242:December 1, 3214:December 1, 2593:January 23, 2569:surprising. 2501:. Microsoft 2207:MarketWatch 2113:Electronics 2083:Rent's rule 2077:Wirth's law 2031:Huang's law 2025:Eroom's law 2013:Beyond CMOS 1986:Haitz's law 1941:Eroom's law 1889:Wirth's law 1843:Donald Keck 1630:transistors 1486:spintronics 1460:technology. 1296:techniques. 1237:, with the 1035:Arthur Rock 942:David House 926:Carver Mead 851:Electronics 728:. It is an 724:, it is an 714:observation 706:transistors 702:Moore's Law 614:forecasting 608:Technology 518:Backcasting 495:Singularity 475:Moore's law 433:Mathematics 322:Moore's law 165:130 nm 159:180 nm 153:250 nm 147:350 nm 141:600 nm 135:800 nm 120:1.5 μm 49:fabrication 8097:Prediction 8061:Categories 7885:Automation 7754:Bell's law 7599:0465055648 7260:August 22, 7117:August 22, 7113:. Alertbox 7094:August 22, 7061:August 22, 7038:August 22, 7014:Forbes.com 6368:August 22, 5865:1511.05956 5683:August 15, 5586:August 15, 5582:. MIT News 5528:August 15, 5502:August 15, 5476:August 15, 4750:: 552–557. 4451:August 22, 4202:August 22, 4072:August 22, 4041:August 22, 3677:US 3387286 3657:US 3356858 3580:US 2981877 3560:US 3138743 3543:August 22, 3520:August 22, 3487:August 22, 3272:August 18, 3022:August 24, 3018:. May 2017 2945:August 23, 2479:August 26, 2338:August 31, 2309:October 4, 2132:References 1839:Keck's law 1551:30 nm 1537:and pitch 1478:14 nm 1474:22 nm 1411:announced 1357:NAND flash 1321:14 nm 1112:Jack Kilby 1099:(IC): The 1073:NAND flash 1053:See also: 1041:cost of a 980:smartphone 924:professor 718:projection 643:Hype cycle 610:assessment 509:Techniques 316:multi-gate 297:Half-nodes 237:10 nm 228:14 nm 219:22 nm 210:28 nm 201:32 nm 192:45 nm 183:65 nm 174:90 nm 93:10 μm 84:20 μm 7915:Bioethics 7285:578215272 7255:InfoWorld 6928:1201.5543 6397:CiteSeerX 6395:(5): 67. 6157:CiteSeerX 6129:March 25, 5840:March 13, 5787:0028-0836 5299:1212.3362 5259:1302.0244 5230:April 30, 5109:AnandTech 5053:AnandTech 5031:March 31, 4700:Wiley-VCH 4559:August 8, 4533:August 8, 4500:Nanoscale 4396:April 20, 4353:10203/698 4259:CRC Press 4238:114148274 3775:March 27, 3482:Infoworld 3457:April 30, 3431:March 27, 3263:TSMC Blog 3138:Infoworld 2814:March 25, 2781:March 22, 2635:908999844 2166:intel.com 2071:Power law 1963:bandwidth 1916:microform 1897:InfoWorld 1454:5 nm 1413:3D XPoint 1391:memristor 1313:7 nm 1282:3 nm 1231:nanoscale 1108:hybrid IC 1105:germanium 1008:5 nm 961:Zilog Z80 872:In 1974, 833:In 1959, 555:Foresight 282:2 nm 264:3 nm 255:5 nm 246:7 nm 129:1 μm 111:3 μm 102:6 μm 7735:Computer 7700:at Intel 7646:by Moore 7553:66463488 7516:25112828 7471:27580722 7380:(1913). 7364:18913248 7356:15040198 7172:Archived 7083:EE Times 6994:June 16, 6860:(2004). 6833:Archived 6723:decades. 6715:Archived 6680:Archived 6658:31327565 6632:Springer 6578:Archived 6484:Archived 6451:Archived 6419:11032644 6344:Qualcomm 6286:Archived 6231:Archived 6191:: 3–24. 6147:(2000). 6119:29759395 6043:Archived 6004:Archived 5991:(1995). 5968:(1961). 5816:Archived 5795:26863965 5733:June 24, 5678:18654384 5455:37889140 5413:41734511 5367:20190748 5168:July 16, 5136:Archived 5115:June 27, 5087:June 23, 5059:June 23, 4989:BBC News 4932:18451858 4832:July 10, 4825:Engadget 4722:Archived 4612:14952278 4604:22343383 4528:23403487 4469:(2010). 4446:21499252 4372:26482358 4297:July 17, 4063:Archived 4061:. 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