25:
34:
123:
of potentially encouraging their neighboring states, particularly those they have had conflicts with, to do the same, spawning a “virtual” arms race to ensure the potential of future nuclear capability. Such a situation could rapidly escalate into an actual arms race, drastically raising tensions in the region and increasing the risk of a potential nuclear exchange.
235:, and possessed an active nuclear weapons program that was terminated in the mid-1970s with its signing of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, while still engaging in some clandestine nuclear weapons research into the late 1980s, and the security motivations to seriously contemplate such an option—since the publishing of a
122:
Nuclear latency can be achieved with solely peaceful intentions, but in some cases nuclear latency is achieved in order to be able to create nuclear arms in the future, which is known as "nuclear hedging". While states engaging in nuclear hedging do not directly violate the NPT, they do run the risk
246:
The number of states that are technically nuclear-latent has steadily increased as nuclear energy and its requisite technologies have become more available, but the number of states that are actually at the threshold status are limited. Nuclear latency does not presume any particular intentions on
86:
is considered a "paranuclear" state, with complete technical prowess to develop a nuclear weapon quickly, and is sometimes called being 'one screwdriver's turn" from the bomb, as it is considered to have the materials and technical capacity to make a nuclear weapon at will.
205:
The state being in a location in which it has a history of severe conflicts in its relationships with several neighboring states. This gives the state a reason to desire nuclear arms as a potential deterrence of its neighboring
349:
230:
have both been identified as "insecure" nuclear threshold states—states with the technical capability to develop nuclear weapons. South Korea had been involved in nuclear energy technology since the end of the
201:
sources in order to obtain nuclear materials, technology used for reprocessing or enrichment, technology used in the production of nuclear arms or delivery systems, or the purchase of nuclear delivery systems
176:
Construction of facilities and infrastructure which is more reasonably oriented toward the production of nuclear weapons than for civil purposes, such as reactors that produce extremely large quantities of
139:, John Carlson, outlined several criteria for use in helping to determine whether a state's nuclear program was run solely with peaceful intentions, or if the state was engaging in nuclear hedging:
1044:
For more on the proliferation and debates surrounding nuclear weapons and their latency, visit the
Woodrow Wilson Center's Nuclear Proliferation International History Project website:
194:
A supposedly civilian nuclear energy program having heavy involvement with the state's military, an indication that the state's military is likely seeking to obtain nuclear materials.
143:
Production of nuclear materials significantly beyond what could feasibly be needed in order to maintain a state's current nuclear reactors. This includes both the processes of the
877:
339:
158:
Retaining stores of nuclear materials which can be used in weapons construction beyond the amount that could reasonably be slated for use in civilian purposes, such as
269:
772:
219:
94:
is also considered a nuclear threshold state, and has been described being "a hop, skip, and a jump away" from developing nuclear weapons, with its advanced
227:
107:
519:
431:
111:
299:
180:
Production of technologies which are primarily oriented toward the creation of nuclear weapons, such as the explosive lenses required to build an
103:
747:
697:
1021:
223:
99:
292:"Does Iran really want the bomb? Perhaps what Iran wants is the ability to produce a nuclear weapon fast, rather than have a standing arsenal"
897:
Report of the
Nuclear Energy Policy Study Group, Nuclear Power Issues, and Choices (Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Co., 1977), p. 284.
188:
624:
985:
170:
98:
capable of producing fissile material for a bomb in a matter of days if weaponized. Other most notable nuclear threshold states are
961:
908:
403:
909:"THE ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS TECHNOLOGY IN THE AREA OF NORTH EAST ASIA (KOREAN PENINSULAR AND JAPAN)"
404:"THE ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS TECHNOLOGY IN THE AREA OF NORTH EAST ASIA (KOREAN PENINSULAR AND JAPAN)"
380:
869:
724:"Top US Defense official says Iran could produce 'one bomb's worth of fissile material' in 'about 12 days' | CNN Politics"
372:
320:
181:
265:
42:
1045:
542:
78:
is the condition of a country possessing all the technology, expertise and infrastructure needed to quickly develop
957:
136:
1060:
723:
95:
511:
427:
291:
187:
Production or development of systems designed to allow for the deliverance of nuclear payloads, such as
144:
1013:
673:
466:
148:
567:
344:
492:
819:
592:
24:
780:
600:
484:
236:
932:
474:
159:
163:
46:
470:
946:
915:
410:
79:
1054:
933:"Nuclear Weapons Archive, 7.4 States Formerly Possessing or Pursuing Nuclear Weapons"
804:
1046:
http://wilsoncenter.org/program/nuclear-proliferation-international-history-project
496:
215:
198:
33:
324:
650:
232:
58:
784:
604:
152:
488:
748:"Iran Could Make Fuel for Nuclear Bomb in Less Than 2 Weeks, Milley Says"
698:"Iran Could Make Fuel for Nuclear Bomb in Less Than 2 Weeks, Milley Says"
870:""Peaceful" Nuclear Programs and the Problem of Nuclear Latency | NTI"
340:"Japan 'should develop nuclear weapons' to counter North Korea threat"
266:"Capability versus intent: The latent threat of nuclear proliferation"
240:
773:"Iran puts its nuclear programme beyond the reach of American bombs"
479:
454:
568:"Amid the Israel-Hamas War, Iran Marches Towards Nuclear Breakout"
132:
83:
54:
50:
652:
Why Israel is in deep trouble: John
Mearsheimer with Tom Switzer
91:
62:
960:. December 1979. p. 5 (paragraph 4). MORI DocID: 1108245.
373:"North Korean Atomic Tests Lift Lid on Japan's Nuclear 'Taboo'"
625:"The Hunt: Iran just days away from becoming a nuclear power"
428:"Nuclear Scholars Initiative 2010: Recap of Seminar Four"
247:
the part of a state recognized as being nuclear-latent.
455:"Nuclear proliferation special: We have the technology"
131:
In a paper written following the establishment of the
805:"Nuclear Weapons Archive, 7.5 nuclear capable states"
169:
Noncompliance or lack of proper cooperation with the
243:has designed devices suitable for nuclear testing.
173:, or grievous disregard for reasonable safeguards.
566:Sonnenfeld, Jeffrey; Boehler, Adam (2023-12-09).
543:"Iran's Nuclear Crisis Has No Military Solution"
512:"In Japan, Provocative Case for Staying Nuclear"
239:report in 1977. US intelligence also believes
649:Centre for Independent Studies (2024-05-17).
127:Determining peacefulness of a nuclear program
8:
820:"Canada's Role in the New Nuclear Landscape"
1014:"Exploring Nuclear Latency | Wilson Center"
321:"Hypothesis: Iran Seeks the 'Japan Option'"
264:Panofsky, Wolfgang K. H. (June 14, 2007).
478:
268:. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
16:State ability to develop nuclear weapons
256:
82:, without having actually yet done so.
863:
861:
859:
383:from the original on 16 September 2015
1007:
1005:
857:
855:
853:
851:
849:
847:
845:
843:
841:
839:
338:Demetriou, Danielle (20 April 2009).
7:
1012:Pilat, Joseph F. (October 2, 2014).
824:Network for Strategic Analysis (NSA)
352:from the original on 15 January 2020
954:Interagency Intelligence Memorandum
868:Carlson, John (November 19, 2015).
522:from the original on 10 August 2020
323:. Slate. 2009-10-07. Archived from
674:"The Day After Iran Gets the Bomb"
510:Chester Dawson (28 October 2011).
434:from the original on 7 August 2010
14:
453:Brumfiel, Geoff (November 2004).
371:Sakamaki, Sachiko (28 May 2009).
722:Hansler, Jennifer (2023-02-28).
32:
23:
1024:from the original on 2021-05-14
967:from the original on 2014-10-24
880:from the original on 2021-05-03
818:Raymond, Camille (2021-12-15).
672:Walt, Stephen M. (2024-06-05).
302:from the original on 2009-10-11
272:from the original on 2013-10-10
222:, but dismantled them in 1989.
211:Other nuclear-threshold states
1:
947:"The 22 September 1979 Event"
907:John H. Large (May 2, 2005).
402:John H. Large (May 2, 2005).
189:long-range ballistic missiles
43:Takahama Nuclear Power Plant
593:"Iran's New Nuclear Threat"
591:Brewer, Eric (2024-06-25).
218:has successfully developed
1077:
914:. R3126-A1. Archived from
541:Azodi, Sina (2024-07-24).
409:. R3126-A1. Archived from
958:National Security Archive
874:Nuclear Threat Initiative
290:Cole, Juan (2009-10-07).
137:Nuclear Threat Initiative
220:its own nuclear weapons
76:nuclear threshold state
145:enrichment of uranium
135:, a Counselor of the
1040:Additional resources
986:"Nuclear Safeguards"
661:– via YouTube.
55:Arak Nuclear Complex
516:Wall Street Journal
471:2004Natur.432..432B
345:The Daily Telegraph
237:Mitre Corporation
90:Alongside Japan,
1068:
1033:
1032:
1030:
1029:
1009:
1000:
999:
997:
996:
982:
976:
975:
973:
972:
966:
951:
943:
937:
936:
929:
923:
922:
920:
913:
904:
898:
895:
889:
888:
886:
885:
865:
834:
833:
831:
830:
815:
809:
808:
801:
795:
794:
792:
791:
769:
763:
762:
760:
759:
752:Voice of America
744:
738:
737:
735:
734:
719:
713:
712:
710:
709:
702:Voice of America
694:
688:
687:
685:
684:
669:
663:
662:
660:
659:
646:
640:
639:
637:
636:
621:
615:
614:
612:
611:
588:
582:
581:
579:
578:
563:
557:
556:
554:
553:
538:
532:
531:
529:
527:
507:
501:
500:
482:
450:
444:
443:
441:
439:
424:
418:
417:
415:
408:
399:
393:
392:
390:
388:
368:
362:
361:
359:
357:
335:
329:
328:
317:
311:
310:
308:
307:
287:
281:
280:
278:
277:
261:
164:power generation
36:
27:
1076:
1075:
1071:
1070:
1069:
1067:
1066:
1065:
1061:Nuclear weapons
1051:
1050:
1042:
1037:
1036:
1027:
1025:
1011:
1010:
1003:
994:
992:
984:
983:
979:
970:
968:
964:
949:
945:
944:
940:
931:
930:
926:
918:
911:
906:
905:
901:
896:
892:
883:
881:
867:
866:
837:
828:
826:
817:
816:
812:
803:
802:
798:
789:
787:
771:
770:
766:
757:
755:
746:
745:
741:
732:
730:
721:
720:
716:
707:
705:
696:
695:
691:
682:
680:
671:
670:
666:
657:
655:
648:
647:
643:
634:
632:
623:
622:
618:
609:
607:
597:Foreign Affairs
590:
589:
585:
576:
574:
565:
564:
560:
551:
549:
540:
539:
535:
525:
523:
509:
508:
504:
480:10.1038/432432a
465:(7016): 432–7.
452:
451:
447:
437:
435:
426:
425:
421:
413:
406:
401:
400:
396:
386:
384:
370:
369:
365:
355:
353:
337:
336:
332:
319:
318:
314:
305:
303:
289:
288:
284:
275:
273:
263:
262:
258:
253:
213:
129:
120:
118:Nuclear hedging
108:the Netherlands
96:nuclear program
80:nuclear weapons
72:Nuclear latency
69:
68:
67:
66:
39:
38:
37:
29:
28:
17:
12:
11:
5:
1074:
1072:
1064:
1063:
1053:
1052:
1041:
1038:
1035:
1034:
1001:
990:www.aph.gov.au
977:
938:
924:
921:on 2007-07-10.
899:
890:
835:
810:
796:
764:
739:
714:
689:
678:Foreign Policy
664:
641:
616:
583:
558:
547:Foreign Policy
533:
502:
445:
419:
416:on 2007-07-10.
394:
363:
330:
327:on 2009-10-11.
312:
282:
255:
254:
252:
249:
212:
209:
208:
207:
203:
197:Making use of
195:
192:
185:
182:implosion-type
178:
174:
167:
156:
128:
125:
119:
116:
41:
40:
31:
30:
22:
21:
20:
19:
18:
15:
13:
10:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
1073:
1062:
1059:
1058:
1056:
1049:
1047:
1039:
1023:
1019:
1018:Wilson Center
1015:
1008:
1006:
1002:
991:
987:
981:
978:
963:
959:
955:
948:
942:
939:
934:
928:
925:
917:
910:
903:
900:
894:
891:
879:
875:
871:
864:
862:
860:
858:
856:
854:
852:
850:
848:
846:
844:
842:
840:
836:
825:
821:
814:
811:
806:
800:
797:
786:
782:
778:
777:The Economist
774:
768:
765:
753:
749:
743:
740:
729:
725:
718:
715:
703:
699:
693:
690:
679:
675:
668:
665:
654:
653:
645:
642:
630:
626:
620:
617:
606:
602:
598:
594:
587:
584:
573:
569:
562:
559:
548:
544:
537:
534:
521:
517:
513:
506:
503:
498:
494:
490:
486:
481:
476:
472:
468:
464:
460:
456:
449:
446:
433:
429:
423:
420:
412:
405:
398:
395:
382:
378:
374:
367:
364:
351:
347:
346:
341:
334:
331:
326:
322:
316:
313:
301:
297:
293:
286:
283:
271:
267:
260:
257:
250:
248:
244:
242:
238:
234:
229:
225:
221:
217:
210:
204:
200:
196:
193:
190:
186:
183:
179:
175:
172:
168:
165:
161:
157:
154:
150:
146:
142:
141:
140:
138:
134:
126:
124:
117:
115:
113:
109:
105:
101:
97:
93:
88:
85:
81:
77:
73:
64:
60:
56:
52:
48:
44:
35:
26:
1043:
1026:. Retrieved
1017:
993:. Retrieved
989:
980:
969:. Retrieved
953:
941:
927:
916:the original
902:
893:
882:. Retrieved
873:
827:. Retrieved
823:
813:
799:
788:. Retrieved
776:
767:
756:. Retrieved
754:. 2023-03-23
751:
742:
731:. Retrieved
727:
717:
706:. Retrieved
704:. 2023-03-23
701:
692:
681:. Retrieved
677:
667:
656:. Retrieved
651:
644:
633:. Retrieved
631:. 2024-04-11
628:
619:
608:. Retrieved
596:
586:
575:. Retrieved
571:
561:
550:. Retrieved
546:
536:
524:. Retrieved
515:
505:
462:
458:
448:
436:. Retrieved
422:
411:the original
397:
385:. Retrieved
376:
366:
354:. Retrieved
343:
333:
325:the original
315:
304:. Retrieved
295:
285:
274:. Retrieved
259:
245:
216:South Africa
214:
206:adversaries.
199:black market
149:reprocessing
130:
121:
89:
75:
71:
70:
526:13 November
461:. 432-437.
228:South Korea
1028:2021-05-02
995:2024-07-10
971:2006-11-01
884:2021-05-02
829:2024-07-10
790:2024-07-10
758:2024-07-10
733:2024-07-10
708:2024-06-04
683:2024-06-04
658:2024-07-10
635:2024-06-04
610:2024-07-10
577:2024-07-10
552:2024-07-10
306:2009-10-07
276:2009-08-04
251:References
233:Korean War
177:plutonium.
785:0013-0613
629:WTOP News
605:0015-7120
377:Bloomberg
202:outright.
153:plutonium
112:Australia
1055:Category
1022:Archived
962:Archived
878:Archived
520:Archived
489:15565123
432:Archived
430:. CSIS.
381:Archived
350:Archived
300:Archived
270:Archived
160:research
147:and the
47:Takahama
497:4354223
467:Bibcode
438:29 June
387:29 June
356:29 June
184:weapon.
104:Germany
783:
603:
495:
487:
459:Nature
241:Taiwan
224:Taiwan
100:Canada
53:, and
965:(PDF)
950:(PDF)
919:(PDF)
912:(PDF)
493:S2CID
414:(PDF)
407:(PDF)
296:Salon
133:JCPOA
84:Japan
74:or a
51:Japan
781:ISSN
601:ISSN
572:TIME
528:2011
485:PMID
440:2010
389:2010
358:2010
226:and
171:IAEA
110:and
92:Iran
63:Iran
59:Arak
728:CNN
475:doi
463:432
162:or
151:of
57:in
45:in
1057::
1048:.
1020:.
1016:.
1004:^
988:.
956:.
952:.
876:.
872:.
838:^
822:.
779:.
775:.
750:.
726:.
700:.
676:.
627:.
599:.
595:.
570:.
545:.
518:.
514:.
491:.
483:.
473:.
457:.
379:.
375:.
348:.
342:.
298:.
294:.
114:.
106:,
102:,
61:,
49:,
1031:.
998:.
974:.
935:.
887:.
832:.
807:.
793:.
761:.
736:.
711:.
686:.
638:.
613:.
580:.
555:.
530:.
499:.
477::
469::
442:.
391:.
360:.
309:.
279:.
191:.
166:.
155:.
65:.
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Additional terms may apply.
