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Orleans residents had been predicting for some time. He admitted that he and his colleagues hoped to have been wrong about just how powerful
Katrina would become, "but our local expertise said otherwise." He added, "We always prepare for the big one, we just didn't think it was going to come this soon."
605:
Weather Office in the 1990s. The strongly worded statement urged residents to evacuate, and was highlighted by national news media. As a result, the level of detail was highlighted as an "innovative best practice" in the NWS assessment, which recommended issuing warnings with similar levels of detail
592:
committee to investigate the response to
Hurricane Katrina and the preparations prior to its landfall. The committee concluded that the forecasts given by the National Weather Service were timely, were not responsible for failures in other agencies, and were likely responsible for saving thousands of
617:
that he wrote the bulletin based on his previous experiences with Betsy and
Camille. He also said that he was looking for statements to take out, but decided to leave the bulletin more or less intact because it seemed valid for a storm that he was convinced would be "the big one" longtime New
596:
During an internal assessment by the
National Weather Service, the 10:11 bulletin and its impact were analyzed. The report called the bulletin "a significant moment for the NWS during Katrina," as its detailed and explicit language did not have any precedent, though the message was based on a
536:
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
472:
Over the course of the overnight hours of August 27, 2005, Hurricane
Katrina rapidly strengthened, reaching Category 5 status by morning, with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) by 10:00 am CDT on August 28. A few minutes later, at 10:11 a.m.
149:
402:
at the time, indicated that the
Mississippi/Louisiana area has "the greatest potential for nightmare scenarios," and that this has been known for at least the three decades he has worked at the NHC. Other publications, such as
459:
by 10:00 p.m. CDT that same evening. At this point, Katrina was a
Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph (185 km/h) winds and about 335 miles (540 km) to the south-southeast of the Mississippi River's
393:
in 2001, told of a disaster that "would strand 250,000 people or more, and probably kill one of 10 left behind as the city drowned under 20 feet of water" following a severe hurricane making landfall on the city.
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THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.
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An NWS assessment of its
Hurricane Katrina activity found that because of "the unprecedented detail and foreboding nature of the language used, the statement helped reinforce the actions of
99:
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officials as they coordinated one of the largest evacuations in U.S. history." The bulletin "helped reinforce the message from emergency management officials for residents in southeast
139:
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485:, a meteorologist with the New Orleans/Baton Rouge NWS office, issued the following statement as part of the event synopsis text of an inland hurricane wind warning being issued:
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POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
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WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
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MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL
1228:
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IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
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1029:
447:
Three days before
Katrina's second and third landfalls, the National Hurricane Center began predicting that the storm would make landfall as a
94:
1218:
1174:
1093:
A Failure of
Initiative: Final Report of the Select Bipartisan Committee to Investigate the Preparation for and Response to Hurricane Katrina
786:
A Failure of Initiative: Final Report of the Select Bipartisan Committee to Investigate the Preparation for and Response to Hurricane Katrina
655:
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to handle future storm events. However, the protection given by this system was limited to hurricanes up to Category 3 intensity on the
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The bulletin, and the rosary that Ricks clutched as he and his fellow forecasters weathered the storm in their office, are both now in the
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and weakened into a tropical storm as a result. The next morning, after passing over the state, Tropical Storm Katrina moved into the
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HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
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made landfall just south of New Orleans, causing widespread flooding in the city. As a result, a system of
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in the future. The bulletin was described as "perhaps the most chilling ever issued" by the NWS.
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August 26, approximately 56 hours before Katrina's landfall near Buras, Louisiana, the
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of 10:11 a.m., August 28, 2005, was a particularly dire warning issued by the local
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ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!
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AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS
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could face a direct hit by the storm. As New Orleans is located on the
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ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
971:"Hurricane Katrina Advisory Number 23, 10 a.m. CDT, August 28, 2005"
946:"Hurricane Katrina Advisory Number 19, 10 p.m. CDT, August 27, 2005"
918:"Hurricane Katrina Advisory Number 17, 10 a.m. CDT, August 27, 2005"
593:
lives that would have otherwise been lost in the raging hurricane.
530:
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that included the New Orleans metro area, which was upgraded to a
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Keeping its head above water: New Orleans faces doomsday scenario
478:
285:
National Weather Service bulletin for the New Orleans region
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937:
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On the evening of August 25, 2005, Hurricane Katrina made
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Service Assessment: Hurricane Katrina, August 23-31, 2005
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A warning just as dire was issued at 4:13 p.m. CDT.
18:
National Weather Service bulletin for New Orleans region
451:. By the next morning, on August 27, the NHC issued a
425:
would drown and its residents would be left homeless.
1158:
318:to heed evacuation orders from local officials."
975:National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
950:National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
922:National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
487:
723:"Hurricane Katrina Service Assessment Report"
264:
8:
1192:"The Most Dire Weather Forecast Ever Issued"
672:
670:
713:
711:
709:
707:
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651:Effects of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans
328:Meteorological history of Hurricane Katrina
690:Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Katrina
520:MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
271:
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40:
29:
110:Effects in the Southeastern United States
27:Dire warning issued in Slidell, Louisiana
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421:had given doomsday scenarios in which a
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81:
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522:STRENGTH... RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF
656:Tropical cyclone watches and warnings
7:
871:McQuaid, John; Schleifstein, Mark. "
719:United States Department of Commerce
688:Knabb, Richard D.; Rhome, Jamie R. "
212:
623:National Museum of American History
584:In the months following the storm,
1224:Preparations for Hurricane Katrina
1132:Mark Schleifstein (July 4, 2006).
515:...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...
295:, warning of the devastation that
25:
1190:Eric Holthaus (August 28, 2015).
891:Westerink, J.J.; Luettich, R.A. "
360:, the hurricane began to undergo
1134:"Katrina forecasters are lauded"
635:
383:and parts of the city are below
237:
223:
211:
100:Criticism of government response
1229:Weather warnings and advisories
498:URGENT — WEATHER MESSAGE
301:Gulf Coast of the United States
442:Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
398:, who was the director of the
50:2005 Atlantic hurricane season
1:
1165:. Chapel Hill Press. p.
1004:"The weatherman nobody heard"
567:INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING
1219:Tropical cyclone meteorology
1107:. p. 70. Archived from
1065:. 2005-08-28. Archived from
1036:. 2005-08-28. Archived from
1161:Florida's Hurricane History
969:National Hurricane Center.
944:National Hurricane Center.
916:National Hurricane Center.
904:Civil Engineering Magazine.
1250:
1105:Government Printing Office
1061:. New Orleans, Louisiana:
1032:. New Orleans, Louisiana:
798:Government Printing Office
325:
1234:Tropical cyclones in 2005
695:National Hurricane Center
547:AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES.
400:National Hurricane Center
373:National Hurricane Center
1063:National Weather Service
1059:"Urgent Weather Message"
1034:National Weather Service
1030:"Urgent Weather Message"
643:Tropical cyclones portal
500:NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
377:Greater New Orleans area
348:county line in southern
609:Ricks, a native of the
381:Mississippi River Delta
375:had predicted that the
289:Weather Forecast Office
125:Memorial Medical Center
1088:United States Congress
1002:(September 15, 2005).
882:June 23-June 27, 2002.
826:New Orleans is Sinking
781:United States Congress
574:
549:SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES
518:HURRICANE KATRINA...A
180:International response
150:Infrastructure repairs
115:Effects in New Orleans
69:Meteorological history
1090:(February 19, 2006).
783:(February 19, 2006).
362:rapid intensification
299:could wreak upon the
853:Drowning New Orleans
545:HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES
492:WWUS74 KLIX 281550
338:Category 1 hurricane
308:emergency management
220:at Wikimedia Commons
1157:Jay Barnes (2007).
858:Scientific American
842:September 11, 2001.
412:Scientific American
367:At 11:00 p.m.
130:New Orleans Hornets
1138:The Times-Picayune
898:2006-06-14 at the
893:The Creeping Storm
878:The Times-Picayune
851:Fischetti, Mark. "
831:2005-09-07 at the
759:2005-09-07 at the
699:December 20, 2005.
436:was authorized by
418:The Times-Picayune
293:Slidell, Louisiana
135:New Orleans Saints
1176:978-0-8078-3068-0
1114:on March 26, 2009
838:Popular Mechanics
807:on March 26, 2009
770:December 1, 2001.
766:Houston Chronicle
524:HURRICANE CAMILLE
512:SUN AUG 28, 2005
457:hurricane warning
406:Popular Mechanics
390:Houston Chronicle
297:Hurricane Katrina
281:
280:
242:Works related to
218:Hurricane Katrina
216:Media related to
145:Tulane University
95:Political effects
34:Hurricane Katrina
16:(Redirected from
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615:NBC Nightly News
601:designed by the
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752:Berger, Eric. "
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453:hurricane watch
449:major hurricane
430:Hurricane Betsy
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244:Katrina sources
229:Katrina stories
175:Disaster relief
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862:October, 2001.
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824:Wilson, Jim. "
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1141:. Retrieved
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1116:. Retrieved
1109:the original
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1071:. Retrieved
1067:the original
1053:
1042:. Retrieved
1038:the original
1024:
1013:. Retrieved
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978:. Retrieved
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925:. Retrieved
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873:Washing Away
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809:. Retrieved
802:the original
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730:the original
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588:appointed a
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553:LIGHT TRUCKS
542:
539:
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517:
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497:
491:
488:
483:Robert Ricks
471:
446:
427:
423:sinking city
416:
410:
404:
396:Max Mayfield
388:
366:
358:Loop Current
331:
305:
284:
282:
906:June, 2003.
503:NEW ORLEANS
316:Mississippi
1213:Categories
1143:2006-07-15
1118:2006-04-10
1073:2012-08-22
1044:2012-08-22
1015:2006-07-15
980:2006-07-12
955:2006-07-12
927:2006-07-12
811:2006-04-10
739:2006-07-14
662:References
611:Ninth Ward
590:bipartisan
342:Miami-Dade
326:See also:
322:Background
526:OF 1969.
428:In 1965,
385:sea level
340:near the
312:Louisiana
140:Superdome
1009:NBC News
896:Archived
829:Archived
757:Archived
629:See also
599:template
586:Congress
508:1011 AM
438:Congress
334:landfall
233:Wikinews
188:Analysis
64:Timeline
350:Florida
346:Broward
56:General
1173:
580:Impact
531:GABLED
494:NPWLIX
477:(1511
434:levees
415:, and
167:Relief
82:Impact
1197:Slate
1112:(PDF)
1097:(PDF)
805:(PDF)
790:(PDF)
733:(PDF)
726:(PDF)
603:Tampa
462:mouth
336:as a
1171:ISBN
551:AND
489:000
283:The
1167:351
902:."
875:."
855:."
835:."
763:."
692:."
565:AN
510:CDT
481:),
479:UTC
475:CDT
369:EDT
291:in
231:at
1215::
1194:.
1169:.
1136:.
1103::
1099:.
1006:.
989:^
973:.
948:.
936:^
920:.
796::
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704:^
669:^
625:.
506:LA
464:.
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409:,
364:.
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840:.
814:.
768:.
742:.
697:.
679:.
344:–
272:e
265:t
258:v
20:)
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