251:. Others argue that the specific study from which data has been produced is important, and while the Bradford Hill criteria may be applied to test causality in these scenarios, the study type may rule out deducing or inducing causality, and the criteria are only of use in inferring the best explanation of this data.
342:
Since the description of the criteria, many methods to systematically evaluate the evidence supporting a causal relationship have been published, for example the five evidence-grading criteria of the World Cancer
Research Fund (Convincing; Probable; Limited evidence – suggestive; Limited evidence –
246:
An argument against the use of
Bradford Hill criteria as exclusive considerations in proving causality is that the basic mechanism of proving causality is not in applying specific criteria—whether those of Bradford Hill or counterfactual argument—but in scientific common sense
172:
All scientific work is incomplete. All scientific work is liable to be upset or modified by advancing knowledge. That does not confer upon us a freedom to ignore the knowledge we already have, or to postpone the action that it appears to demand at a given time.
128:): Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.
112:: Causation is likely if there is a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.
266:
where a consequence is sought; explanation models as to why causation occurred are deduced less easily from
Bradford Hill criteria because the instigation of causation, rather than the consequence, is needed for these models.
1479:
Cresswel, James E; Desneux, Nicolas; VanEngelsdorp, Dennis (24 January 2012). "Dietary traces of neonicotinoid pesticides as a cause of population declines in honey bees: an evaluation by Hill's epidemiological criteria".
142:: Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. However, Hill noted that "lack of such evidence cannot nullify the epidemiological effect on associations".
275:
Researchers have applied Hill’s criteria for causality in examining the evidence in several areas of epidemiology, including connections between exposures to molds and infant pulmonary hemorrhage,
1326:
de Vries J, Antoine JM, Burzykowski T, Chiodini A, Gibney M, Kuhnle G, MĂ©heust A, Pijls L, Rowland I (2013). "Markers for nutrition studies: review of criteria for the evaluation of markers".
85:
between a presumed cause and an observed effect. (For example, he demonstrated the connection between cigarette smoking and lung cancer.) The list of the criteria is as follows:
1430:"Resolved: there is sufficient scientific evidence that decreasing sugar-sweetened beverage consumption will reduce the prevalence of obesity and obesity-related diseases"
638:
558:
118:: The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay).
1191:"Association between maternal serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D level and pregnancy and neonatal outcomes: systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies"
319:
related to disease outcomes, foods and nutrients related to cardiovascular disease and diabetes and sugar-sweetened beverage consumption and the prevalence of
415:
711:
573:
258:. The argument proposes that there are different motives behind defining causality; the Bradford Hill criteria applied to complex systems such as
1093:"How strong is the evidence that solar ultraviolet B and vitamin D reduce the risk of cancer? An examination using Hill's criteria for causality"
1373:"Evaluation of the Quality of Evidence of the Association of Foods and Nutrients With Cardiovascular Disease and Diabetes: A Systematic Review"
136:: A plausible mechanism between cause and effect is helpful (but Hill noted that knowledge of the mechanism is limited by current knowledge).
96:): A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal.
382:
339:
of health care services has been proposed, highlighting how quality improvement methods can be used to provide evidence for the criteria.
217:
evidence, expected to complement each other. This operational reformulation of the criteria has been recently proposed in the context of
106:): Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect.
1142:"Does the evidence for an inverse relationship between serum vitamin D status and breast cancer risk satisfy the Hill criteria?"
903:
658:
125:
1234:"Association of alcohol consumption with selected cardiovascular disease outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis"
1371:
Miller, Victoria; Micha, Renata; Choi, Erin; Karageorgou, Dimitra; Webb, Patrick; Mozaffarian, Dariush (2022-02-01).
595:
SchĂĽnemann H, Hill S, Guyatt G; et al. (2011). "The GRADE approach and
Bradford Hill's criteria for causation".
199:
1516:
581:
324:
218:
132:
762:
300:
62:
242:, because interventions in public health are more complex than can be evaluated by use of Hill’s criteria
1589:
707:"The evolution of evidence hierarchies: what can Bradford Hill's 'guidelines for causation' contribute?"
632:
552:
511:"Establishing a causal link between social relationships and health using the Bradford Hill Guidelines"
194:
In addition, their method of application is debated. Some proposed options how to apply them include:
364:
263:
74:
51:
336:
248:
239:
154:: The use of analogies or similarities between the observed association and any other associations.
82:
43:
1594:
1554:
1353:
1308:
1026:
852:
620:
1140:
Mohr SB, Gorham ED, Alcaraz JE, Kane CI, Macera CA, Parsons JE, Wingard DL, Garland CF (2012).
1546:
1497:
1461:
1410:
1392:
1345:
1300:
1265:
1214:
1171:
1122:
1073:
1065:
1018:
983:
932:
879:
832:
789:
738:
687:
612:
540:
491:
462:"Sequence-Based Identification of Microbial Pathogens: a Reconsideration of Koch's Postulates"
442:
358:
254:
Debate over the scope of application of the criteria includes, whether they can be applied to
775:
367: – Four criteria showing a causal relationship between a causative microbe and a disease
1536:
1528:
1515:
Poots, Alan J; Reed, Julie E; Woodcock, Thomas; Bell, Derek; Goldmann, Don (2 August 2017).
1489:
1451:
1443:
1400:
1384:
1337:
1292:
1255:
1247:
1204:
1161:
1153:
1112:
1104:
1057:
1010:
973:
963:
922:
912:
869:
861:
822:
779:
771:
728:
720:
677:
667:
604:
530:
522:
481:
473:
432:
424:
355: – Branch of statistics concerned with inferring causal relationships between variables
352:
952:"The role of causal criteria in causal inferences: Bradford Hill's "aspects of association"
899:"Causal criteria and counterfactuals; nothing more (or less) than scientific common sense?"
327:. They have also been used in non-human epidemiological studies, such as on the effects of
259:
255:
235:
Using Hill’s criteria as a guide, but not considering them to give definitive conclusions.
188:
103:
183:
Bradford Hill's criteria had been widely accepted as useful guidelines for investigating
191:
studies but their value has been questioned because they have become somewhat outdated.
1456:
1429:
1405:
1388:
1372:
1260:
1233:
1166:
1141:
1117:
1092:
978:
951:
927:
898:
813:
784:
757:
733:
706:
682:
653:
535:
510:
437:
376:
296:
78:
39:
486:
461:
17:
1583:
1061:
624:
370:
328:
47:
1312:
874:
1558:
1357:
1189:
Aghajafari F, Nagulesapillai T, Ronksley PE, Tough SC, O'Beirne M, Rabi DM (2013).
1045:
1030:
58:
1571:
850:
Rothman KJ, Greenland S (2005). "Causation and causal inference in epidemiology".
526:
276:
225:
93:
1283:
Grau AJ, Urbanek C, Palm F (2010). "Common infections and the risk of stroke".
428:
1532:
1517:"How to attribute causality in quality improvement: lessons from epidemiology"
1341:
1328:
1296:
1014:
827:
808:
654:"The Bradford Hill considerations on causality: a counterfactual perspective?"
332:
316:
304:
178:—Bradford Hill, on the fallacy of persisting with existing research and rules.
1396:
1069:
865:
724:
608:
46:
between a presumed cause and an observed effect and have been widely used in
312:
288:
280:
184:
1550:
1541:
1501:
1465:
1414:
1349:
1304:
1269:
1218:
1175:
1126:
1077:
1022:
1001:
Ward, AC (2009). "The
Environment and Disease: Association or Causation?".
987:
936:
883:
836:
793:
742:
691:
672:
616:
544:
446:
1108:
968:
917:
574:"Why the Father of Modern Statistics Didn't Believe Smoking Caused Cancer"
495:
50:
research. They were established in 1965 by the
English epidemiologist Sir
1434:
292:
410:
1157:
477:
320:
1447:
1209:
1190:
1251:
308:
284:
1574:
American
Institute for Cancer Research, n.d., retrieved 13 June 2017
1493:
162:: If the cause is deleted then the effect should disappear as well.
38:, are a group of nine principles that can be useful in establishing
148:: "Occasionally it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence".
229:
1232:
Ronksley PE, Brien SE, Turner BJ, Mukamal KJ, Ghali WA (2011).
1238:
1195:
411:"The Environment and Disease: Association or Causation?"
379: – Set of guidelines for using statistical analysis
202:
consideration as the basis for applying each criterion.
61:
remarked on Hill's criteria in their seminal paper on
343:
no conclusion; Substantial effect on risk unlikely).
361: – Statistical hypothesis test for forecasting
756:Glass TA, Goodman SN, Hernán MA, Samet JM (2013).
373: – Promoting health through informed choices
460:Fredricks, David; Relman, David (January 1996).
170:
597:Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health
809:"Causal criteria in nutritional epidemiology"
8:
956:Epidemiologic Perspectives & Innovations
637:: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (
557:: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (
416:Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine
1572:What the Continuous Update Conclusions Mean
77:proposed a set of nine criteria to provide
1540:
1455:
1404:
1259:
1208:
1165:
1116:
977:
967:
926:
916:
873:
826:
783:
732:
705:Howick J, Glasziou P, Aronson JK (2009).
681:
671:
534:
485:
436:
776:10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031811-124606
712:Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine
205:Subdividing them into three categories:
394:
385: – Refutation of a logical fallacy
27:Criteria for measuring cause and effect
630:
550:
404:
402:
400:
398:
73:In 1965, the English statistician Sir
7:
1003:Medicine, Health Care and Philosophy
383:Correlation does not imply causation
758:"Causal inference in public health"
509:Howick J, Kelly P, Kelly M (2019).
1389:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.46705
238:Separating causal association and
25:
897:Phillips, CV; Goodman KJ (2006).
1062:10.1097/00008480-200302000-00017
572:Christopher, Ben (21 Sep 2016).
904:Emerging Themes in Epidemiology
659:Emerging Themes in Epidemiology
807:Potischman N, Weed DL (1999).
409:Hill, Austin Bradford (1965).
1:
1050:Current Opinion in Pediatrics
466:Clinical Microbiology Reviews
158:Some authors consider, also,
57:In 1996, David Fredricks and
36:Hill's criteria for causation
527:10.1016/j.ssmph.2019.100402
1611:
429:10.1177/003591576505800503
126:dose–response relationship
1533:10.1136/bmjqs-2017-006756
1342:10.1007/s00394-013-0553-3
1297:10.1038/nrneurol.2010.163
1015:10.1007/s11019-009-9182-2
1521:BMJ Quality & Safety
875:10.2105/AJPH.2004.059204
866:10.2105/AJPH.2004.059204
725:10.1258/jrsm.2009.090020
609:10.1136/jech.2010.119933
325:obesity-related diseases
1482:Pest Management Science
1044:Etzel, Ruth A. (2003).
828:10.1093/ajcn/69.6.1309S
277:ultraviolet B radiation
271:Examples of application
219:evidence-based medicine
763:Annu Rev Public Health
673:10.1186/1742-7622-2-11
301:cardiovascular disease
175:
166:Debate in epidemiology
63:microbial pathogenesis
32:Bradford Hill criteria
18:Bradford-Hill criteria
1109:10.4161/derm.1.1.7388
969:10.1186/1742-5573-6-2
918:10.1186/1742-7622-3-5
34:, otherwise known as
1146:Dermatoendocrinology
1097:Dermatoendocrinology
860:(Suppl 1): S144–50.
75:Austin Bradford Hill
52:Austin Bradford Hill
584:on 5 February 2022.
337:quality improvement
226:confounding factors
122:Biological gradient
83:causal relationship
44:causal relationship
1158:10.4161/derm.20449
853:Am J Public Health
478:10.1128/CMR.9.1.18
1448:10.1111/obr.12040
1377:JAMA Network Open
1210:10.1136/bmj.f1169
1203:(Mar 26): f1169.
1091:Grant WB (2009).
950:Ward, AC (2009).
652:Höfler M (2005).
365:Koch's postulates
359:Granger causality
264:prediction models
16:(Redirected from
1602:
1575:
1569:
1563:
1562:
1544:
1512:
1506:
1505:
1476:
1470:
1469:
1459:
1425:
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1368:
1362:
1361:
1323:
1317:
1316:
1280:
1274:
1273:
1263:
1252:10.1136/bmj.d671
1246:(Feb 22): d671.
1229:
1223:
1222:
1212:
1186:
1180:
1179:
1169:
1137:
1131:
1130:
1120:
1088:
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1081:
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1035:
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991:
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971:
947:
941:
940:
930:
920:
894:
888:
887:
877:
847:
841:
840:
830:
821:(6): 1309S–14S.
804:
798:
797:
787:
753:
747:
746:
736:
702:
696:
695:
685:
675:
649:
643:
642:
636:
628:
592:
586:
585:
580:. Archived from
569:
563:
562:
556:
548:
538:
515:SSM Popul Health
506:
500:
499:
489:
457:
451:
450:
440:
406:
353:Causal inference
287:, vitamin D and
179:
21:
1610:
1609:
1605:
1604:
1603:
1601:
1600:
1599:
1580:
1579:
1578:
1570:
1566:
1527:(11): 933–937.
1514:
1513:
1509:
1494:10.1002/ps.3290
1478:
1477:
1473:
1427:
1426:
1422:
1383:(2): e2146705.
1370:
1369:
1365:
1325:
1324:
1320:
1282:
1281:
1277:
1231:
1230:
1226:
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1090:
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704:
703:
699:
651:
650:
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629:
594:
593:
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571:
570:
566:
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508:
507:
503:
459:
458:
454:
408:
407:
396:
392:
349:
335:. Their use in
273:
260:health sciences
256:social sciences
189:epidemiological
181:
177:
168:
104:reproducibility
71:
28:
23:
22:
15:
12:
11:
5:
1608:
1606:
1598:
1597:
1592:
1582:
1581:
1577:
1576:
1564:
1507:
1488:(6): 819–827.
1471:
1428:Hu FB (2013).
1420:
1363:
1336:(7): 1685–99.
1318:
1291:(12): 681–94.
1285:Nat Rev Neurol
1275:
1224:
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1132:
1083:
1056:(1): 103–106.
1046:"Stachybotrys"
1036:
993:
942:
889:
842:
814:Am J Clin Nutr
799:
748:
697:
644:
587:
564:
501:
452:
423:(5): 295–300.
393:
391:
388:
387:
386:
380:
377:MAGIC criteria
374:
368:
362:
356:
348:
345:
331:pesticides on
272:
269:
262:are useful in
244:
243:
236:
233:
222:
203:
200:counterfactual
169:
167:
164:
156:
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119:
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107:
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81:evidence of a
70:
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1491:
1487:
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1475:
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1467:
1463:
1458:
1453:
1449:
1445:
1442:(8): 606–19.
1441:
1437:
1436:
1431:
1424:
1421:
1416:
1412:
1407:
1402:
1398:
1394:
1390:
1386:
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1364:
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1198:
1197:
1192:
1185:
1182:
1177:
1173:
1168:
1163:
1159:
1155:
1152:(2): 152–57.
1151:
1147:
1143:
1136:
1133:
1128:
1124:
1119:
1114:
1110:
1106:
1102:
1098:
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1055:
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1047:
1040:
1037:
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1028:
1024:
1020:
1016:
1012:
1009:(3): 333–43.
1008:
1004:
997:
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989:
985:
980:
975:
970:
965:
961:
957:
953:
946:
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924:
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906:
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900:
893:
890:
885:
881:
876:
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867:
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838:
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824:
820:
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810:
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800:
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781:
777:
773:
769:
765:
764:
759:
752:
749:
744:
740:
735:
730:
726:
722:
719:(5): 186–94.
718:
714:
713:
708:
701:
698:
693:
689:
684:
679:
674:
669:
665:
661:
660:
655:
648:
645:
640:
634:
626:
622:
618:
614:
610:
606:
603:(5): 392–95.
602:
598:
591:
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579:
575:
568:
565:
560:
554:
546:
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537:
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371:Public health
369:
366:
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346:
344:
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338:
334:
330:
329:neonicotinoid
326:
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314:
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306:
302:
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257:
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241:
240:interventions
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161:
160:Reversibility
153:
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127:
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120:
117:
114:
111:
108:
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98:
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84:
80:
79:epidemiologic
76:
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66:
64:
60:
55:
53:
49:
48:public health
45:
41:
40:epidemiologic
37:
33:
19:
1590:Epidemiology
1567:
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1485:
1481:
1474:
1439:
1433:
1423:
1380:
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1366:
1333:
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1288:
1284:
1278:
1243:
1237:
1227:
1200:
1194:
1184:
1149:
1145:
1135:
1103:(1): 17–24.
1100:
1096:
1086:
1053:
1049:
1039:
1006:
1002:
996:
959:
955:
945:
908:
902:
892:
857:
851:
845:
818:
812:
802:
767:
761:
751:
716:
710:
700:
663:
657:
647:
633:cite journal
600:
596:
590:
582:the original
578:Priceonomics
577:
567:
553:cite journal
518:
514:
504:
472:(1): 18–33.
469:
465:
455:
420:
414:
341:
307:and risk of
274:
253:
245:
224:Considering
214:
210:
206:
193:
182:
176:
171:
159:
157:
151:
145:
139:
133:Plausibility
131:
121:
115:
109:
99:
89:
72:
59:David Relman
56:
35:
31:
29:
211:mechanistic
116:Temporality
110:Specificity
100:Consistency
94:effect size
1584:Categories
1329:Eur J Nutr
521:: 100402.
390:References
333:honey bees
317:biomarkers
305:infections
303:outcomes,
295:outcomes,
146:Experiment
69:Definition
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281:vitamin D
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185:causality
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1466:23763695
1435:Obes Rev
1415:35113165
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1313:29975502
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