Global catastrophe scenarios

372: 33: 193:, and how much these abilities might pose a threat or hazard. They noted that some robots have acquired various forms of semi-autonomy, including being able to find power sources on their own and being able to independently choose targets to attack with weapons. They also noted that some computer viruses can evade elimination and have achieved "cockroach intelligence". They noted that self-awareness, as depicted in science-fiction, is probably unlikely, but there are other potential hazards and pitfalls. Various media sources and scientific groups have noted separate trends in differing areas which might together result in greater robotic functionalities and autonomy, and which pose some inherent concerns. 1610:. A deadly pandemic restricted to humans alone would be self-limiting as its mortality would reduce the density of its target population. A pathogen with a broad host range in multiple species, however, could eventually reach even isolated human populations. U.S. officials assess that an engineered pathogen capable of "wiping out all of humanity", if left unchecked, is technically feasible and that the technical obstacles are "trivial". However, they are confident that in practice, countries would be able to "recognize and intervene effectively" to halt the spread of such a microbe and prevent human extinction. 384: 1402: 1641:) has no constraints on its virulence in people, since the accidental secondary infections do not affect its evolution. Lastly, in models where virulence level and rate of transmission are related, high levels of virulence can evolve. Virulence is instead limited by the existence of complex populations of hosts with different susceptibilities to infection, or by some hosts being geographically isolated. The size of the host population and competition between different strains of pathogens can also alter virulence. 882: 766:, a technique that would make it possible to build complex structures at atomic precision. Molecular manufacturing requires significant advances in nanotechnology, but once achieved could produce highly advanced products at low costs and in large quantities in nanofactories of desktop proportions. When nanofactories gain the ability to produce other nanofactories, production may only be limited by relatively abundant factors such as input materials, energy and software. 1712: 614:"privileges the interest of the ecosystem above the individual interest of its components, but eventually in accordance with the overall communal interest." The authors also note that "while violent events, such as global war or natural catastrophic events, are of immediate concern to everyone, a relatively slow consumption of the planetary resources may be not perceived as strongly as a mortal danger for the human civilization." 972: 1177:", could plausibly survive a ten-kilometer (six-mile) meteorite, a hundred-kilometer (sixty-mile) meteorite would be large enough to "incinerate everybody". Asteroids with around a 1 km diameter have impacted the Earth on average once every 500,000 years; these are probably too small to pose an extinction risk, but might kill billions of people. Larger asteroids are less common. Small 1637:

virulence is primarily a function of a limited number of hosts. Any pathogen with a high virulence, high transmission rate and long incubation time may have already caused a catastrophic pandemic before ultimately virulence is limited through natural selection. Additionally, a pathogen that infects humans as a secondary host and primarily infects another species (a

1246:'s orbit could be made unstable by Jupiter's gravitational pull sometime during the lifespan of the Sun. Were this to happen, the simulations suggest a collision with Earth could be one of four possible outcomes (the others being Mercury colliding with the Sun, colliding with Venus, or being ejected from the Solar System altogether). 5130:

Bradshaw, Corey J. A.; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Beattie, Andrew; Ceballos, Gerardo; Crist, Eileen; Diamond, Joan; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Ehrlich, Anne H.; Harte, John; Harte, Mary Ellen; Pyke, Graham; Raven, Peter H.; Ripple, William J.; Saltré, Frédérik; Turnbull, Christine; Wackernagel, Mathis; Blumstein, Daniel

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Research published in 2011 finds evidence that massive volcanic eruptions caused massive coal combustion, supporting models for the significant generation of greenhouse gases. Researchers have suggested that massive volcanic eruptions through coal beds in Siberia would generate significant greenhouse

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period within a much older glacial event. The last glacial expansion ended about 10,000 years ago, and all civilizations evolved later than this. Scientists do not predict that a natural ice age will occur anytime soon. The amount of heat-trapping gases emitted into Earth's oceans and atmosphere will

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In 2024, NASA has been given a 72% chance of hypothetical meteor impact to Earth from a possible 100-320 meter wide asteroid by July 12, 2038. They also estimated a 47% chance of a 1000 people killed by an asteroid by that date. However, They estimated a 53% chance of 1,000 people to survive a meteor

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applications of biotechnology have historically been infrequent. To what extent this is due to a lack of capabilities or motivation is not resolved. However, given current development, more risk from novel, engineered pathogens is to be expected in the future. Exponential growth has been observed in

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virus while trying to develop a virus to sterilize rodents. The modified virus became highly lethal even in vaccinated and naturally resistant mice. The technological means to genetically modify virus characteristics are likely to become more widely available in the future if not properly regulated.

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The main long-term effect is through global climate change, which reduces the temperature globally by about 5–15 °C for a decade, together with the direct effects of the deposits of ash on their crops. A large supervolcano like Toba would deposit one or two meters thickness of ash over an area

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Several researchers say the bulk of risk from nanotechnology comes from the potential to lead to war, arms races, and destructive global government. Several reasons have been suggested why the availability of nanotech weaponry may with significant likelihood lead to unstable arms races (compared to

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Ever since Georgescu-Roegen and Daly published these views, various scholars in the field have been discussing the existential impossibility of allocating Earth's finite stock of mineral resources evenly among an unknown number of present and future generations. This number of generations is likely

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According to a recent study, if the Yellowstone caldera erupted again as a supervolcano, an ash layer one to three millimeters thick could be deposited as far away as New York, enough to "reduce traction on roads and runways, short out electrical transformers and cause respiratory problems". There

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Neither of these arguments is applicable to bioengineered pathogens, and this poses entirely different risks of pandemics. Experts have concluded that "Developments in science and technology could significantly ease the development and use of high consequence biological weapons", and these "highly

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If Mercury or a rogue planet of similar size were to collide with Earth, all life on Earth could be obliterated entirely: an asteroid 15 km wide is believed to have caused the extinction of the non-avian dinosaurs, whereas Mercury is 4,879 km in diameter. The destabilization of Mercury's

1082:) can cause 100% crop losses in most modern varieties. Little or no treatment is possible and the infection spreads on the wind. Should the world's large grain-producing areas become infected, the ensuing crisis in wheat availability would lead to price spikes and shortages in other food products. 613:

continue at current rates they could culminate in a "catastrophic collapse in human population" and possibly "an irreversible collapse of our civilization" within the next several decades. The study says humanity should pass from a civilization dominated by the economy to a "cultural society" that

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pathogens will ultimately develop an upper limit to their virulence. This is because pathogens with high enough virulence quickly kill their hosts and reduce their chances of spreading the infection to new hosts or carriers. This model has limits, however, because the fitness advantage of limited

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when a star collapses inward on itself and then "bounces" outward in a massive explosion. Under certain circumstances, these events are thought to produce massive bursts of gamma radiation emanating outward from the axis of rotation of the star. If such an event were to occur oriented towards the

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The USGS puts it like this: 'If another large caldera-forming eruption were to occur at Yellowstone, its effects would be worldwide. Thick ash deposits would bury vast areas of the United States, and an injection of huge volumes of volcanic gases into the atmosphere could drastically affect the

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is disturbed, or objects orbiting the two stars collide. It also increases the risk of catastrophic irradiation of the Earth. Astronomers have identified fourteen stars with a 90% chance of coming within 3.26 light years of the Sun in the next few million years, and four within 1.6 light years,

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Nick Bostrom suggested that in the pursuit of knowledge, humanity might inadvertently create a device that could destroy Earth and the Solar System. Investigations in nuclear and high-energy physics could create unusual conditions with catastrophic consequences. All of these worries have so far

148:, it is possible that the first super-intelligence to emerge would be able to bring about almost any possible outcome it valued, as well as to foil virtually any attempt to prevent it from achieving its objectives. Thus, even a super-intelligence indifferent to humanity could be dangerous if it 1791:

of several million square kilometers. (1000 cubic kilometers is equivalent to a one-meter thickness of ash spread over a million square kilometers). If that happened in some densely populated agricultural area, such as India, it could destroy one or two seasons of crops for two billion people.

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There are several classes of argument about the likelihood of pandemics. One stems from history, where the limited size of historical pandemics is evidence that larger pandemics are unlikely. This argument has been disputed on grounds including the changing risk due to changing population and

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estimated that a US–Soviet nuclear exchange might kill 400–450 million directly, mostly in the United States, Europe and Russia, and maybe several hundred million more through follow-up consequences in those same areas. In 2008, a survey by the Future of Humanity Institute estimated a 4%

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A biotechnology catastrophe may be caused by accidentally releasing a genetically engineered organism from controlled environments, by the planned release of such an organism which then turns out to have unforeseen and catastrophic interactions with essential natural or agro-ecosystems, or by

1475:, a bubble of lower-energy vacuum could come to exist by chance or otherwise in our universe, and catalyze the conversion of our universe to a lower energy state in a volume expanding at nearly the speed of light, destroying all that is known without forewarning. Such an occurrence is called 292:

Noun and Chyba propose three categories of measures to reduce risks from biotechnology and natural pandemics: Regulation or prevention of potentially dangerous research, improved recognition of outbreaks, and developing facilities to mitigate disease outbreaks (e.g. better and/or more widely

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are distinct from nuclear and chemical threats because biological pathogens are easier to mass-produce and their production is hard to control (especially as the technological capabilities are becoming available even to individual users). In 2008, a survey by the Future of Humanity Institute

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A survey of AI experts estimated that the chance of human-level machine learning having an "extremely bad (e.g., human extinction)" long-term effect on humanity is 5%. A 2008 survey by the Future of Humanity Institute estimated a 5% probability of extinction by super-intelligence by 2100.

822:. International infrastructure may be expanded giving more sovereignty to the international level. This could help coordinate efforts for arms control. International institutions dedicated specifically to nanotechnology (perhaps analogously to the International Atomic Energy Agency 5271:; Matzke, Nicholas; Tomiya, Susumu; Wogan, Guinevere O. U.; Swartz, Brian; Quental, Tiago B.; Marshall, Charles; McGuire, Jenny L.; Lindsey, Emily L.; Maguire, Kaitlin C.; Mersey, Ben; Ferrer, Elizabeth A. (March 3, 2011). "Has the Earth's sixth mass extinction already arrived?". 1517:

efforts. Several public figures such as Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk have argued against sending such messages, on the grounds that extraterrestrial civilizations with technology are probably far more advanced than, and could therefore pose an existential threat to, humanity.

630:. Such a species could be fundamentally different from any previous life form on Earth, e.g. by merging humans with technological systems. Such scenarios assess the risk that the "old" human species will be outcompeted and driven to extinction by the new, posthuman entity. 1429:, and the heating of its outer layers may cause the Earth's oceans to evaporate, leaving only minor forms of life. Well before this time, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will be too low to support plant life, destroying the foundation of the food chains. See 855:) using it as a source of energy and building blocks. Nowadays, however, nanotech experts—including Drexler—discredit the scenario. According to Phoenix, a "so-called grey goo could only be the product of a deliberate and difficult engineering process, not an accident". 830:

on defensive technologies, a policy that players should usually favour. The Center for Responsible Nanotechnology also suggests some technical restrictions. Improved transparency regarding technological capabilities may be another important facilitator for arms-control.

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at the University of Cambridge prioritize anthropogenic over natural risks due to their much greater estimated likelihood. They are especially concerned by, and consequently focus on, risks posed by advanced technology, such as artificial intelligence and biotechnology.

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may be rising in the 21st century in the developed world. Projections vary; researcher Hans Rosling has projected population growth to start to plateau around 11 billion, and then to slowly grow or possibly even shrink thereafter. A 2014 study published in

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turning Earth into an uninhabitable Venus-like planet. Some scholars argue that much of the world would become uninhabitable under severe global warming, but even these scholars do not tend to argue that it would lead to complete human extinction, according to

5964:"Threats From Space: a Review of U.S. Government Efforts to Track and mitigate Asteroids and Meteors (Part I and Part II) – Hearing Before the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology House of Representatives One Hundred Thirteenth Congress First Session" 474:

judges that climate change fails to pose an established "existential risk", stating: "Scientists agree climate change does pose a threat to humans and ecosystems, but they do not envision that climate change will obliterate all people from the planet."

1751:-forming eruptions in the past 17 million years. A massive volcano eruption would eject extraordinary volumes of volcanic dust, toxic and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere with serious effects on global climate (towards extreme global cooling: 1115:, that humans control most of the Earth's accessible surface fresh water, and that species extinction rates may be over a hundred times faster than normal. Ecological destruction which impacts food production could produce a human population crash. 708:

of Earth—that is, Earth's capacity to sustain human populations and consumption levels—is bound to decrease sometime in the future as Earth's finite stock of mineral resources is presently being extracted and put to use; and consequently, that the

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Molecular manufacturing could be used to cheaply produce, among many other products, highly advanced, durable weapons. Being equipped with compact computers and motors these could be increasingly autonomous and have a large range of capabilities.

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are easier to detect from a longer distance, but are much more difficult to deflect. Passage through the solar system could result in the destruction of the Earth or the Sun by being directly consumed. Astronomers expect the collision of the

1100: 5912:"Asteroids and Adversaries: Challenging What NASA Knows About Space Rocks - Two years ago, NASA dismissed and mocked an amateur's criticisms of its asteroids database. Now Nathan Myhrvold is back, and his papers have passed peer review" 912:

that may generate significant upheaval in advanced civilizations. However, while popular perception sometimes takes nuclear war as "the end of the world", experts assign low probability to human extinction from nuclear war. In 1982,

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Humanity is causing a rapid loss of biodiversity and, with it, Earth's ability to support complex life. But the mainstream is having difficulty grasping the magnitude of this loss, despite the steady erosion of the fabric of human

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covered much of what is now Yellowstone National Park and extended beyond, covering much of the ground from Yellowstone River in the east to Idaho falls in the west, with some of the flows extending north beyond Mammoth Springs.

1169:. No sufficiently large asteroid currently exists in an Earth-crossing orbit; however, a comet of sufficient size to cause human extinction could impact the Earth, though the annual probability may be less than 10. Geoscientist 7771:

global climate. Fortunately, the Yellowstone volcanic system shows no signs that it is headed toward such an eruption. The probability of a large caldera-forming eruption within the next few thousand years is exceedingly low.'

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scenarios, including the most pessimistic ones, predict temperatures compatible with human survival. The question of human extinction under "unlikely" outlier models is not generally addressed by the scientific literature.

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attacks. Pathogens may be intentionally or unintentionally genetically modified to change virulence and other characteristics. For example, a group of Australian researchers unintentionally changed characteristics of the

1020:. Between 1950 and 1984, as the Green Revolution transformed agriculture around the globe, world grain production increased by 250%. The Green Revolution in agriculture helped food production to keep pace with worldwide 1213:

warned that America is unprepared for an asteroid impact event, and has developed and released the "National Near-Earth Object Preparedness Strategy Action Plan" to better prepare. According to expert testimony in the

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at 200 million. To achieve a sustainable economy and avert disaster, the United States must reduce its population by at least one-third, and world population will have to be reduced by two-thirds, says the study.

592:, and workplaces were collectively responsible for nine million deaths worldwide in 2015, particularly from air pollution which was linked to deaths by increasing susceptibility to non-infectious diseases, such as 440:, and workplaces were collectively responsible for nine million deaths worldwide in 2015, particularly from air pollution which was linked to deaths by increasing susceptibility to non-infectious diseases, such as 1783:

would be centimeters of thickness over much of the U.S. Midwest, enough to disrupt crops and livestock, especially if it happened at a critical time in the growing season. The worst-affected city would likely be

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are known to have occurred. An ice age would have a serious impact on civilization because vast areas of land (mainly in North America, Europe, and Asia) could become uninhabitable. Currently, the world is in an

497:, believes a cyberattack on electric grids has the potential to be a catastrophic risk. She notes that little has been done to mitigate such risks, and that mitigation could take several decades of readjustment. 1123:

Of all species that have ever lived, 99% have gone extinct. Earth has experienced numerous mass extinction events, in which up to 96% of all species present at the time were eliminated. A notable example is the

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Moreover, we have unleashed a mass extinction event, the sixth in roughly 540 million years, wherein many current life forms could be annihilated or at least committed to extinction by the end of this century.

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there were some concerns that a fusion reaction could "ignite" the atmosphere in a chain reaction that would engulf Earth. Calculations showed the energy would dissipate far too quickly to sustain a reaction.

1128:, which killed the dinosaurs. The types of threats posed by nature have been argued to be relatively constant, though this has been disputed. A number of other astronomical threats have also been identified. 596:, stroke, and lung cancer. The report warned that the pollution crisis was exceeding "the envelope on the amount of pollution the Earth can carry" and "threatens the continuing survival of human societies". 444:, stroke, and lung cancer. The report warned that the pollution crisis was exceeding "the envelope on the amount of pollution the Earth can carry" and "threatens the continuing survival of human societies". 693: 5717: 1656:

refers to a lasting change in the Earth's climate. The climate has ranged from ice ages to warmer periods when palm trees grew in Antarctica. It has been hypothesized that there was also a period called

1095: 5718:"Earth Will Be Hit by an Asteroid With 100 Percent Certainty, Says Space-Watching Group B612 - The group of scientists and former astronauts is devoted to defending the planet from a space apocalypse" 4573:

Gerland, P.; Raftery, A. E.; Ev Ikova, H.; Li, N.; Gu, D.; Spoorenberg, T.; Alkema, L.; Fosdick, B. K.; Chunn, J.; Lalic, N.; Bay, G.; Buettner, T.; Heilig, G. K.; Wilmoth, J. (September 18, 2014).

1814:. Such an eruption might cause the immediate deaths of millions of people several hundred kilometers (or miles) from the eruption, and perhaps billions of death worldwide, due to the failure of the 1111:. A 1997 assessment states that over a third of Earth's land has been modified by humans, that atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased around 30 percent, that humans are the dominant source of 1362:

Earth, the massive amounts of gamma radiation could significantly affect the Earth's atmosphere and pose an existential threat to all life. Such a gamma-ray burst may have been the cause of the

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expects sea level rise by 2100 to be limited to 0.3 to 0.6 meters (1–2 feet). However, in a worst case scenario (top trace), sea levels could rise 5 meters (16 feet) by the year 2300.

371: 5806: 7463: 119: 1497:, if it exists, could invade Earth, either to exterminate and supplant human life, enslave it under a colonial system, exploit the planet's resources, or destroy it altogether. 986:

estimates that current activity uses resources twice as fast as they can be naturally replenished, and that growing human population and increased consumption pose the risk of

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Biotechnology can pose a global catastrophic risk in the form of bioengineered organisms (viruses, bacteria, fungi, plants, or animals). In many cases the organism will be a

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Thomas Aquinas : teacher of humanity : proceedings from the first conference of the Pontifical Academy of St. Thomas Aquinas held in the United States of America

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could spiral into human extinction. In November 2017, a statement by 15,364 scientists from 184 countries indicated that increasing levels of greenhouse gases from use of

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The authors of this study believe the mentioned agricultural crisis will begin to have an effect on the world after 2020 and will become critical after 2050. Geologist

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or actually enabled population growth. The energy for the Green Revolution was provided by fossil fuels in the form of fertilizers (natural gas), pesticides (oil), and

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Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group 1 (WG1) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5)

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has described it as inevitable in the long run; unless the probability approaches zero, inevitably there will come a day when civilization's luck runs out. During the

5994: 904:. Detonating large numbers of nuclear weapons would have an immediate, short term and long-term effects on the climate, potentially causing cold weather known as a " 8112: 7594: 1873:) in the "War, Pollution, and disease" chapter (page 74). In this section the author also mentions the success (in lowering the birth rate) of programs such as the 1306:

The passage of another star system into or close to the outer reaches of the Solar System could trigger a swarm of asteroid impacts as the orbit of objects in the

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Since self-regulation by all state and non-state actors seems hard to achieve, measures to mitigate war-related risks have mainly been proposed in the area of

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sector, and Noun and Chyba predict that this will lead to major increases in biotechnological capabilities in the coming decades. They argue that risks from

2669: 2499:"Expression of Mouse Interleukin-4 by a Recombinant Ectromelia Virus Suppresses Cytolytic Lymphocyte Responses and Overcomes Genetic Resistance to Mousepox" 8163:

Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning : how Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future in this Century--on Earth and Beyond

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on the decade time scale has occurred regionally. A natural variation into a new climate regime (colder or hotter) could pose a threat to civilization.

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Haines, A.; Kovats, R.S.; Campbell-Lendrum, D.; Corvalan, C. (July 2006). "Climate change and human health: Impacts, vulnerability and public health".

6621: 5778: 1205: 85:. The impact of these scenarios can vary widely, depending on the cause and the severity of the event, ranging from temporary economic disruption to 4937: 2123: 2003: 1945: 1874: 1514: 926: 106: 1920: 1513:

discussed the possible threats for humanity of intentionally sending messages aimed at extraterrestrial life into the cosmos in the context of the

6879: 1210: 7711: 5169: 1621:, and other sources of uncertainty and the evolving nature of the risk mean natural pandemics may pose a realistic threat to human civilization. 7609: 4491: 1378:

of nearby high mass stars likely to explode in a supernova. A gamma-ray burst would be able to vaporize anything in its beams out to around 200

762:

Many nanoscale technologies are in development or currently in use. The only one that appears to pose a significant global catastrophic risk is

403:, and an increase in the frequency and severity of some extreme weather events and weather-related disasters. Effects of global warming include 205:. Since people base their judgments of artificial intelligence on their own experience, he claims they underestimate the potential power of AI. 5658: 4205: 1802:. Massive eruptions can also throw enough pyroclastic debris and other material into the atmosphere to partially block out the sun and cause a 827: 2954: 426:

for meat consumption, are trending in ways that forecast an increase in human misery over coming decades. An October 2017 report published in

8175: 7828: 7681: 7652: 6777: 6493: 4162: 3958: 3255: 2908: 1165:, for example, was about ten kilometers (six miles) in diameter and is theorized to have caused the extinction of non-avian dinosaurs at the 6991: 4008: 140:

entity could inadvertently give it goals that lead it to annihilate the human race. It has been suggested that if AI systems rapidly become

45:

depicts people of all walks of life, ages, religions, careers and ethnic backgrounds, taken away by a black-winged personification of death.

7784:"World's biggest extinction event: Massive volcanic eruption, burning coal, and accelerated greenhouse gas choked out life -- ScienceDaily" 2807: 1239: 1189:

over 1 km in size. None of the large "dinosaur-killer" asteroids known to Spaceguard pose a near-term threat of collision with Earth.

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By enabling mass-production of potentially dangerous products that cause risk dynamics (such as arms races) depending on how they are used.

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Chris Phoenix; Mike Treder (2008). "Chapter 21: Nanotechnology as global catastrophic risk". In Bostrom, Nick; Cirkovic, Milan M. (eds.).

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Vitousek, P. M., H. A. Mooney, J. Lubchenco, and J. M. Melillo. 1997. Human Domination of Earth's Ecosystems. Science 277 (5325): 494–499

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in about four billion years, but due to the large amount of empty space between them, most stars are not expected to collide directly.

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Ebert D, Bull JJ (January 2003). "Challenging the trade-off model for the evolution of virulence: is virulence management feasible?".

4471: 3783: 3731: 3705: 3672: 3638: 3608: 3082: 1036:, and Mario Giampietro, senior researcher at the National Research Institute on Food and Nutrition (INRAN), place in their 1994 study 399:

has been driven by technology since the 19th century or earlier. Projections of future climate change suggest further global warming,

5197: 7912: 6996: 5590: 4793: 4331: 3852: 3553: 3150: 3116: 407:, stresses to existing food-producing systems, increased spread of known infectious diseases such as malaria, and rapid mutation of 6709: 6216: 4402: 1398:, which is a drastic and unusual decrease or increase in the Sun's power output, could have severe consequences for life on Earth. 1319:. Observational data on nearby stars was too incomplete for a full catalog of near misses, but more data is being collected by the 1103:, asserts that roughly one million species of plants and animals face extinction from human impacts such as expanding land use for 8081: 8064: 8044: 8028: 8012: 7996: 7980: 7963: 7950: 7934: 4039: 2885: 4548: 2453:

Ali Noun; Christopher F. Chyba (2008). "Chapter 20: Biotechnology and biosecurity". In Bostrom, Nick; Cirkovic, Milan M. (eds.).

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However, Yellowstone shows no signs of a supereruption at present, and it is not certain that a future supereruption will occur.

1653: 1613:

There are numerous historical examples of pandemics that have had a devastating effect on a large number of people. The present,

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estimated the odds of nuclear war at "somewhere between one out of three and even". The United States and Russia have a combined

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may pose a smaller economic threat to the aggressor since manufacturing is cheap and humans may not be needed on the battlefield.

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is uncertain, but is likely to eventually become uninhabitable, either suddenly or gradually. If it does not collapse into the

1269:, are difficult to detect with current technology until they enter the Solar System, and could potentially do so at high speed. 6134: 925:. Mistakenly launching a nuclear attack in response to a false alarm is one possible scenario; this nearly happened during the 914: 744:

conceivable intertemporal allocation of the stock will inevitably end up with universal economic decline at some future point.

655: 3582: 1661:" when all the oceans were covered in a layer of ice. These global climatic changes occurred slowly, near the end of the last 7075: 3507: 2833: 2591:"What if fertility decline is not permanent? The need for an evolutionarily informed approach to understanding low fertility" 1690: 1522: 6803: 4328:"Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional-scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism" 6068: 1280:

that triggered anything from minor earthquakes to liquification of the Earth's crust to Earth being torn apart, becoming a

1158:(NEOs) could result in localized or widespread destruction, including widespread extinction and possibly human extinction. 383: 4860: 3802: 1453: 5837: 3977: 3832: 2497:

Jackson, Ronald J.; Ramsay, Alistair J.; Christensen, Carina D.; Beaton, Sandra; Hall, Diana F.; Ramshaw, Ian A. (2001).

8223: 2390: 2096: 2067: 1976: 102: 3659: 3220: 8218: 8208: 7946: 7489:

Barker, P. A. (2014). "Quaternary climatic instability in south-east Australia from a multi-proxy speleothem record".

6918: 6913: 3449: 3050: 1526: 1509: 379:, presents a theory that coal combustion could eventually lead to a degree of global warming causing human extinction. 801:

Therefore, lack of insight into the other parties' capabilities can tempt players to arm out of caution or to launch

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The great bulk of existential risk in the foreseeable future is anthropogenic; that is, arising from human activity.

1461: 1145: 729: 422:, human population growth, deforestation, and overuse of land for agricultural production, particularly by farming 3863: 3396: 8203: 6397: 5911: 5606: 2661: 1799: 1787:, population 109,000, which the model predicted would be covered with ash estimated as 1.03 to 1.8 meters thick. 1763: 714: 689: 532: 131: 62: 4774: 3199: 2858: 2472: 674:

states. It has been pointed out that much more energetic collisions take place currently in Earth's atmosphere.

6246: 983: 978:'s prediction of world petroleum production rates. Modern agriculture is heavily dependent on petroleum energy. 848: 757: 564: 149: 50: 5398:"The Super-Duper, Planet-Frying, Exploding Star That's Not Going to Hurt Us, So Please Stop Worrying About It" 1682:

prevent the next ice age, which otherwise would begin in around 50,000 years, and likely more glacial cycles.

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would require at least five years of preparation before a mission to intercept an asteroid could be launched.

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believes risks from artificial intelligence are harder to predict than any other known risks due to bias from

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Sackmann, I.-Juliana; Boothroyd, Arnold I.; Kraemer, Kathleen E. (1993), "Our Sun. III. Present and Future",

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or falling birth-rate extinction scenarios. He says that the voluntary small family behaviour may be counter-

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have echoed these concerns, with Hawking theorizing that such an AI could "spell the end of the human race".

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have posited it to be very likely. Scientists consider such a scenario technically possible, but unlikely.

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12: Influence of Supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, solar flares, and cosmic rays on the terrestrial environment

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Ripple WJ, Wolf C, Newsome TM, Galetti M, Alamgir M, Crist E, Mahmoud MI, Laurance WF (November 13, 2017).

7445: 6510: 6153: 5971: 5519:"Experimental evidence that an asteroid impact led to the extinction of many species 65 million years ago" 5268: 1215: 1196:

reported "It's a 100 per cent certain we'll be hit , but we're not 100 per cent sure when." Also in 2018,

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Though these particular concerns have been challenged, the general concern about new experiments remains.

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Molecular manufacturing may reduce dependency on international trade, a potential peace-promoting factor;

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Dirzo, Rodolfo; Hillary S. Young; Mauro Galetti; Gerardo Ceballos; Nick J. B. Isaac; Ben Collen (2014).

1811: 1666: 1494: 1342: 1090: 1060: 900:

could cause the annihilation of humankind. Nuclear war could yield unprecedented human death tolls and

647: 342: 189:(AAAI) hosted a conference to discuss whether computers and robots might be able to acquire any sort of 6889: 1529:(Title 14, Section 1211) in response to the possibility of biological contamination resulting from the 7718: 7617: 7049: 6736: 4908: 4499: 1464:

may render life impossible. The expansion of spacetime could cause the destruction of all matter in a

1093:, which scientists consider a major threat to the continued existence of human civilization. The 2019 881: 7498: 6818: 6753: 6669: 6584: 6446: 6406: 6338: 6284: 6175: 6099: 5882: 5783: 5530: 5483: 5280: 4999: 4586: 3880: 3811: 2994: 2411: 2348: 1500:

Although the existence of sentient alien life has never been conclusively proven, scientists such as

991: 966: 938: 918:

probability of extinction from warfare by 2100, with a 1% chance of extinction from nuclear warfare.

725: 718: 701: 524: 520: 350: 41: 36: 7533: 6850: 5665: 4216: 3794: 1370:

projects proposed to mitigate the risk of gamma-ray bursts include shielding the Earth with ionised

1181:

are regularly observed and can impact anywhere on the Earth injuring local populations. As of 2013,

7697: 6884: 5755: 5174: 3715: 3689: 3578:

J. Blaizot et al., "Study of Potentially Dangerous Events During Heavy-Ion Collisions at the LHC",

2939: 1767: 1744: 1686: 1662: 1254: 1178: 1049: 1013: 901: 843: 795:

A large number of players may be tempted to enter the race since the threshold for doing so is low;

623: 494: 333:, and if the latter are extrapolated, some projections suggest an extinction before the year 3000. 7025:"Top U.S. Disease Fighters Warn of New Engineered Pathogens but Call Bioweapons Doomsday Unlikely" 4936:, Wolf C, Newsome TM, Galetti M, Alamgir M, Crist E, Mahmoud MI, Laurance WF (November 13, 2017). 1711: 7992: 7930: 7783: 7514: 7301: 7258: 7215: 7106: 7001: 6842: 6769: 6659: 6602: 6574: 6464: 6362: 6191: 6165: 6115: 6089: 5499: 5304: 5084: 4986:"Vertebrates on the brink as indicators of biological annihilation and the sixth mass extinction" 4428: 4376: 4016: 3904: 3317: 2984: 2338: 2294: 1476: 1472: 1234:

In April 2008, it was announced that two simulations of long-term planetary movement, one at the

1033: 987: 811: 601: 540: 516: 490: 323: 281: 252: 240: 218: 214: 159: 7820: 7812: 6247:"Scientists are exploring how deadly gamma-ray bursts could sterilize — or vaporize — the Earth" 4463: 4453: 1209:, considered an asteroid collision to be the biggest threat to the planet. In June 2018, the US 736:

to remain unknown to us, as there is no way—or only little way—of knowing in advance if or when

539:

that could lead to approximately half the Earth's population being without safe drinking water,

326:

through a preference for fewer children. If developing world demographics are assumed to become

6321: 6154:"Long-term prospects: Mitigation of supernova and gamma-ray burst threat to intelligent beings" 5425: 2909:"Earth undergoing sixth 'mass extinction' as humans spur 'biological annihilation' of wildlife" 1743:, the event may have reduced human populations to only a few tens of thousands of individuals. 8181: 8171: 8145: 8135: 8106: 8077: 8060: 8040: 8008: 7918: 7908: 7866: 7824: 7677: 7648: 7427: 7409: 7370: 7362: 7293: 7250: 7207: 7166: 7098: 6923: 6834: 6536: 6489: 6483: 6354: 6302: 5938:"Asteroids and Adversaries: Challenging What NASA Knows About Space Rocks - Relevant Comments" 5586: 5558: 5358: 5296: 5202: 5076: 5027: 4933: 4820: 4787:

Neff, R. A.; Parker, C. L.; Kirschenmann, F. L.; Tinch, J.; Lawrence, R. S. (September 2011).

4620: 4602: 4467: 4158: 3954: 3896: 3871: 3848: 3779: 3727: 3701: 3668: 3634: 3604: 3251: 3146: 3112: 3106: 3078: 3072: 3020: 2622: 2528: 1784: 1771: 1560: 1418: 1235: 1186: 1155: 1112: 1021: 1002: 997: 868: 685: 404: 198: 141: 90: 7669: 7580: 5995:"No, NASA hasn't warned of an impending asteroid strike in 2038. Here's what really happened" 4882: 7886: 7640: 7506: 7417: 7401: 7354: 7285: 7242: 7197: 7156: 7146: 7090: 6826: 6761: 6744: 6677: 6592: 6454: 6414: 6346: 6292: 6183: 6107: 6103: 5890: 5873: 5548: 5538: 5491: 5487: 5348: 5340: 5288: 5144: 5066: 5058: 5017: 5007: 4961: 4951: 4810: 4802: 4695: 4669: 4610: 4594: 4368: 4327: 4154: 4148: 3888: 3840: 3819: 3757: 3309: 3140: 3010: 3002: 2752: 2742: 2612: 2602: 2518: 2510: 2309:

Gaming the Robot Revolution: A military technology expert weighs in on Terminator: Salvation

2211: 2041: 1916:

IPCC (November 11, 2013): D. "Understanding the Climate System and its Recent Changes", in:

1894: 1834: 1720: 1367: 1300: 1296: 1281: 1243: 1162: 1086: 1017: 1009: 737: 568: 489:

Cyberattacks have the potential to destroy everything from personal data to electric grids.

376: 302: 268: 248: 202: 137: 86: 3500: 3368: 3335: 1893:

for small, rich families appears to be spreading rapidly throughout the world. In 2150 the

243:, e.g. highly competitive weeds, outcompeting essential crops, poses a biotechnology risk. 7276:

André JB, Hochberg ME (July 2005). "Virulence evolution in emerging infectious diseases".

6875: 6532: 6329: 5864: 5402: 4638: 4438: 3492: 2375: 2289: 1924: 1830: 1803: 1752: 1728: 1706: 1430: 1354: 1320: 1200: 1193: 1056:

without relief and massive starvation on a global level such as never experienced before.

975: 950: 942: 922: 838: 819: 610: 585: 571:. As the bee plays a vital role in pollination, its extinction would severely disrupt the 560: 552: 433: 327: 163: 3557: 1625:

behavioral patterns among humans, the limited historical record, and the existence of an

7502: 6822: 6757: 6673: 6588: 6450: 6410: 6342: 6288: 6179: 5886: 5534: 5284: 5003: 4590: 4179: 3884: 3815: 3625: 2998: 2415: 2352: 2333:

Grace, Katja (2017). "When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts".

1829:. Such an event may be forceful enough to launch an extreme amount of material from the 798:

The ability to make weapons with molecular manufacturing will be cheap and easy to hide;

305:, while able to create multiple local catastrophes, is unlikely to create a global one. 17: 8121: 7762:"Steam Explosions, Earthquakes, and Volcanic Eruptions—What's in Yellowstone's Future?" 7422: 7389: 7202: 7185: 7161: 7137: 7132: 5353: 5328: 5071: 5046: 5022: 4985: 4815: 4788: 4615: 4574: 4047: 3720: 3694: 3015: 2972: 2617: 2590: 2206: 1756: 1732: 1658: 1626: 1568: 1530: 1488: 1041: 1005:

to around 11 billion by 2100 and that growth will continue into the next century.

934: 909: 905: 885: 864: 802: 705: 697: 589: 556: 536: 437: 415: 408: 400: 396: 334: 58: 7246: 5553: 5518: 2523: 2498: 1606:

kill over a million people each year. Sudden introduction of various European viruses

971: 776:

and Treder classify catastrophic risks posed by nanotechnology into three categories:

8197: 8056: 8024: 7518: 7219: 6682: 6647: 6597: 6562: 6468: 6195: 5503: 5471: 5088: 4856: 4380: 3908: 3655: 3496: 3401: 3364: 3241: 1807: 1736: 1614: 1141: 962: 897: 872: 710: 606: 593: 548: 470: 441: 277: 144:, they may take unforeseen actions or out-compete humanity. According to philosopher 78: 7305: 7110: 6606: 6187: 6119: 5170:"The Rapid Decline of the Natural World Is A Crisis Even Bigger Than Climate Change" 2514: 2091: 1401: 953:, and there is an estimated total of 15,700 nuclear weapons in existence worldwide. 7890: 7878: 7848: 7449: 7262: 6846: 6773: 6366: 5308: 5108: 5104:"Top scientists warn of 'ghastly future of mass extinction' and climate disruption" 4754: 4433: 3313: 3270: 2371: 2285: 2224: 1878: 1850: 1724: 1702: 1678: 1599: 1375: 1338: 1266: 1250: 1151: 1137: 889: 780:

From augmenting the development of other technologies such as AI and biotechnology.

671: 512: 454: 419: 330: 314: 285: 256: 222: 145: 82: 7114: 6948: 6111: 3823: 3579: 1825:: a hypothetical volcanic eruption caused by the buildup of gas deep underneath a 847:

and has been a theme in mainstream media and fiction. This scenario involves tiny

8161: 8125: 7898: 7151: 6080:

C.A.L. Bailer-Jones (February 19, 2015). "Close encounters of the stellar kind".

5895: 5868: 5580: 3772:

The Second Law of Life: Energy, Technology, and the Future of Earth As We Know It

3770: 3274: 2576: 1074:

Wheat is humanity's third-most-produced cereal. Extant fungal infections such as

8167: 8157: 7976: 7466:. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. 2016. Archived from 6242: 5838:"America Isn't Ready to Handle a Catastrophic Asteroid Impact, New Report Warns" 5814: 5234: 3844: 3595: 1882: 1838: 1766:

last erupted 640,000 years ago, the thinnest layers of the ash ejected from the

1632:

Another argument is based on an evolutionary model that predicts that naturally

1391: 1277: 1108: 1101:

Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

1053: 1025: 930: 876: 721: 544: 484: 123: 66: 7358: 5751:"Stephen Hawking feared race of 'superhumans' able to manipulate their own DNA" 4372: 3006: 2320: 626:

or technological modifications to split into normal humans and a new species –

53:

creates harm have been widely discussed. Some sources of catastrophic risk are

8149: 5495: 5149: 5132: 4942: 3985: 3761: 2781:"Global pollution kills 9m a year and threatens 'survival of human societies'" 2640: 2379: 2026: 1645:

virulent and highly transmissible represent new potential pandemic threats".

1618: 1584: 1556: 1501: 1457: 1379: 1341:, and in the case of a collision, might escape and hit the Earth. Likewise, a 1334: 1316: 1307: 1291: 1182: 1174: 1170: 1029: 921:

The scenarios that have been explored most frequently are nuclear warfare and

715:

inevitable future collapse, leading to the demise of human civilization itself

667: 663: 580: 572: 445: 428: 232: 171: 7922: 7870: 7853:"Existential risks: analyzing human extinction scenarios and related hazards" 7413: 7366: 6927: 6350: 4806: 4606: 3742: 1421:, within about a billion years. In around 1 billion years from now, the 1161:

Several asteroids have collided with Earth in recent geological history. The

728:

by asserting that "all we can do is to avoid wasting the limited capacity of

271:

weapons, whether used in war or terrorism, could result in human extinction.

8185: 8131: 8013:

15: Artificial Intelligence as a positive and negative factor in global risk

6540: 5722: 5012: 4956: 4598: 3892: 3678: 3279:

Death and Anti-Death: Two Hundred Years After Kant, Fifty Years After Turing

3245: 2973:"Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis" 2747: 2730: 2228: 2045: 1886: 1822: 1633: 1572: 1437: 1410: 1395: 1371: 1358: 1312: 1197: 1079: 627: 563:

episodes. Detected in the early 21st century, a threat in this direction is

459: 387:

If countries cut greenhouse gas emissions significantly (lowest trace), the

289:

estimated a 2% probability of extinction from engineered pandemics by 2100.

272: 236: 179: 167: 7431: 7374: 7297: 7254: 7211: 7170: 6838: 6306: 5562: 5362: 5300: 5080: 5031: 4857:"Cereal Disease Laboratory : Ug99 an emerging virulent stem rust race" 4824: 4624: 3900: 3024: 2626: 2607: 2532: 2405: 1818:, resulting in major crop failures causing starvation on a profound scale. 7935:

10: Super-volcanism and other geophysical processes of catastrophic import

7712:"Extreme Geohazards: Reducing the Disaster Risk and Increasing Resilience" 7102: 5543: 2170: 826:) or general arms control may also be designed. One may also jointly make 6459: 6434: 5779:"Stephen Hawking left us bold predictions on AI, superhumans, and aliens" 5344: 4750: 4727: 4122: 2808:"Is climate change an "existential threat" – or just a catastrophic one?" 2263: 2202: 1727:, volcanism, or the eruption of a supervolcano could lead to a so-called 1638: 1580: 1576: 1564: 1548: 1542: 1436:

About 7–8 billion years from now, if and after the Sun has become a

1426: 1258: 1064: 892:

poster calls up the pictorial image of an invaded, burning New York City.

852: 834: 753: 423: 261: 228: 190: 7405: 6710:"How humans might outlive Earth, the sun ... and even the universe" 6485:

Energy for a Sustainable World: From the Oil Age to a Sun-Powered Future

5869:"An empirical examination of WISE/NEOWISE asteroid analysis and results" 5292: 4356: 4304:"You're More Likely to Die in a Human Extinction Event Than a Car Crash" 4097: 3833:"Growth: A Discussion of the Margins of Economic and Ecological Thought" 2935:"Einstein was right - honey bee collapse threatens global food security" 2407:

Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk

375:

This 1902 article, attributed to Swedish Nobel laureate (for chemistry)

6273:"Is livestock production prepared for an electrically paralysed world?" 5842: 4966: 3321: 2757: 2704:"Majority of Britons believe climate-change could end human race: poll" 2059: 1815: 1748: 1673: 1603: 1596: 1592: 1465: 1067:

for global concerns) could cause spiking food prices and unprecedented

946: 786:

From uncontrolled self-perpetuating processes with destructive effects.

8096: 7817:

Super Volcano: The Ticking Time Bomb Beneath Yellowstone National Park

7761: 7674:

Super Volcano: The Ticking Time Bomb Beneath Yellowstone National Park

7645:

Super Volcano: The Ticking Time Bomb Beneath Yellowstone National Park

6358: 6297: 6272: 5642: 5062: 2595:

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

2258: 1617:

make it more difficult than ever to contain an epidemic through local

7510: 6765: 4984:

Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Raven, Peter H. (June 1, 2020).

4839:"Former BP geologist: peak oil is here and it will 'break economies'" 4455:

Nuclear Weapons and the Future of Humanity: The Fundamental Questions

2834:"Climate change is a catastrophe. But is it an 'existential threat'?" 1826: 1689:(hypothesized quaternary climatic oscillations) could create unknown 1588: 1068: 531:. Most environmental scenarios involve one or more of the following: 231:

of humans, livestock, crops, or other organisms we depend upon (e.g.

175: 6830: 4069: 567:, a phenomenon that might foreshadow the imminent extinction of the 7289: 7094: 6419: 6170: 5198:"Landmark analysis documents the alarming global decline of nature" 4241: 2989: 2343: 2308: 2118: 1998: 1806:, as happened on a smaller scale in 1816 following the eruption of 345:

the extinction date will be 2400. However, some models suggest the

6664: 6579: 6094: 5607:"How Big Would A Meteorite Have To Be To Wipe Out All Human Life?" 5230:"Earth's biota entering a sixth mass extinction, UN report claims" 3539: 3478: 1949: 1775: 1710: 1552: 1521:

Invasion by microscopic life is also a possibility. In 1969, the "

1400: 1262: 970: 382: 370: 31: 5579:

Gehrels, Tom; Matthews, Mildred Shapley; Schumann, A. M. (1994).

5472:"The Near-Earth Objects and Their Potential Threat To Our Planet" 5322: 5320: 5318: 3627:

Economics, Ecology, Ethics. Essays Towards a Steady-State Economy

1739:, occurred in Indonesia about 71,500 years ago. According to the 1249:

Collision with or a near miss by a large object from outside the

8127:

The End of the World: The Science and Ethics of Human Extinction

7133:"Crossing the Line: Selection and Evolution of Virulence Traits" 4990: 3376:(declassified Feb. 1973). Los Alamos National Laboratory. LA-602 1890: 1287: 1219: 1075: 823: 464: 388: 6622:"Ask Ethan: Will The Earth Eventually Be Swallowed By The Sun?" 6435:"The evolution of habitable climates under the brightening Sun" 6058:

NASA's Hubble Shows Milky Way is Destined for Head-On Collision

1417:

The Earth will naturally become uninhabitable due to the Sun's

1226:

impact, as mitigation is allowed to support them by that date.

1096:

Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

1016:

and massive increases in agricultural productivity such as the

7698:"Modeling the Ash Distribution of a Yellowstone Supereruption" 5807:"National Near-Earth Object Preparedness Strategy Action Plan" 5045:

Cowie, Robert H.; Bouchet, Philippe; Fontaine, Benoît (2022).

2668:. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). 2021. 1422: 1406: 1173:

estimates that while a few people, such as "some fishermen in

5133:"Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future" 4403:"Nuclear winter and human extinction: Q&A with Luke Oman" 3105:

Gruskin, Sofia; Annas, George J.; Grodin, Michael A. (2005).

1059:

Since supplies of petroleum and natural gas are essential to

3682:(PDF contains only the title and contents pages of the book) 3300:

Richard Hamming (1998). "Mathematics on a Distant Planet".

3221:"How humans are turning into a 'totally different species'" 1971: 1747:

is another such supervolcano, having undergone 142 or more

7321:"Powerful actor, high impact bio-threats – initial report" 6069:

Nearby Star Is On A Collision Course With Our Solar System

5047:"The Sixth Mass Extinction: fact, fiction or speculation?" 1032:. David Pimentel, professor of ecology and agriculture at 239:). However, any organism able to catastrophically disrupt 187:

Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence

7744:"Questions About Future Volcanic Activity at Yellowstone" 3633:(2nd ed.). San Francisco: W.H. Freeman and Company. 1735:. Human extinction is a possibility. One such event, the 1405:

Conjectured illustration of the scorched Earth after the

646:

might ignite the atmosphere. Early in the development of

8095:

IPCC AR5 WG1 (2013), Stocker, T.F.; et al. (eds.),

7131:

Brown NF, Wickham ME, Coombes BK, Finlay BB (May 2006).

6990:

Anders Sandberg; Milan M. Ćirković (September 9, 2008).

6152:Ćirković, Milan M.; Vukotić, Branislav (December 2016). 4938:"World Scientists' Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice" 4242:"Leading nanotech experts put 'grey goo' in perspective" 3631:(PDF contains only the introductory chapter of the book) 2886:"Scholars assess threats to civilization, life on Earth" 2731:"World Scientists' Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice" 1869:

For the "West Germany" extrapolation see: Leslie, 1996 (

1425:'s brightness may increase as a result of a shortage of 837:

is another catastrophic scenario, which was proposed by

8065:

19: Catastrophic nuclear terrorism: a preventable peril

7464:"Human-made climate change suppresses the next ice age" 7069: 7067: 4909:"18 signs we're in the middle of a 6th mass extinction" 2577:

Can we be sure the world's population will stop rising?

1366:. This scenario is unlikely in the foreseeable future. 662:

might start a chain-reaction global disaster involving

511:

An environmental or ecological disaster, such as world

6646:

Schroeder, K.-P.; Connon Smith, Robert (May 1, 2008).

4666:"Food First/Institute for Food and Development Policy" 4575:"World population stabilization unlikely this century" 4123:"Technical Restrictions May Make Nanotechnology Safer" 3978:"Frequently Asked Questions - Molecular Manufacturing" 3603:. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press. 990:

and a concomitant population crash. Evidence suggests

7050:"Near Apocalypse Causing Diseases, a Historical Look" 4092: 4090: 3972: 3970: 3944: 3942: 3940: 3722:

Ecological Economics: Energy, Environment and Society

2311:., By P. W. Singer, slate.com Thursday, May 21, 2009. 337:

estimates that if the reproduction rate drops to the

120:

Existential risk from artificial general intelligence

7997:

14: Plagues and pandemics: past, present, and future

4549:"World Should Prepare for 11 Billion or More People" 4490:

Federation of American Scientists (April 28, 2015).

4206:"Nanotechnology: Molecular Machines that Mimic Life" 3938: 3936: 3934: 3932: 3930: 3928: 3926: 3924: 3922: 3920: 3837:

Transgovernance. Advancing Sustainability Governance

2229:"Ethical Issues in Advanced Artificial Intelligence" 1715:

Yellowstone sits on top of four overlapping calderas

27:

Scenarios in which a global catastrophe creates harm

6320:Coleman, Sidney; De Luccia, Frank (June 15, 1980). 2448: 2446: 2444: 2442: 2440: 2438: 2436: 2434: 2432: 1276:A close pass by a large object could cause massive 3743:"The Evolution of Georgescu-Roegen's Bioeconomics" 3719: 3693: 2647:. Selma, Alabama, US. October 15, 1902. p. 4. 1770:spread over most of the United States west of the 6992:"How can we reduce the risk of human extinction?" 6652:Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 6567:Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 6135:"Star's flying visit could fling comets at Earth" 5263: 5261: 3142:Posthuman Suffering and the Technological Embrace 2589:Burger, Oskar; DeLong, John P. (April 19, 2016). 2572: 2570: 2466: 2464: 1559:-resistant bacteria. Epidemic diseases that have 301:By contrast with nuclear and biological weapons, 7806: 7804: 5329:"Questioning Estimates of Natural Pandemic Risk" 3175:"The Transhuman Future: Be More Than You Can Be" 2656: 2654: 2027:"Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority" 1337:, if they exist, might naturally be produced by 93:have already happened throughout human history. 8085: 8068: 8048: 8032: 8016: 8000: 7984: 7967: 7954: 7938: 7550: 6965: 6648:"Distant future of the Sun and Earth revisited" 6563:"Distant future of the Sun and Earth revisited" 5470:Perna . D; Barucci M.A; Fulchignoni .M (2013). 5445: 5375: 4265: 3601:(Full book accessible in three parts at Scribd) 3415: 2682: 2545: 2259:"Microsoft's Bill Gates insists AI is a threat" 2144: 1615:unprecedented scale and speed of human movement 1063:techniques, a fall in global oil supplies (see 1052:claims that coming decades could see spiraling 448:and others have raised the prospect of extreme 6322:"Gravitational effects on and of vacuum decay" 5691:"2012 Apocalypse FAQ: Why the World Won't End" 4273: 3776:(Author's science blog, based on his textbook) 1665:when the climate became more stable. However, 1345:could be triggered elsewhere in the universe. 622:Some scenarios envision that humans could use 4350: 4348: 3795:"Economic de-growth vs. steady-state economy" 3501:Ignition of the Atmosphere with Nuclear Bombs 3370:Ignition of the Atmosphere with Nuclear Bombs 3338:Ignition of the Atmosphere With Nuclear Bombs 2933:Evans-Pritchard, Ambrose (February 6, 2011). 2774: 2772: 2770: 2768: 2473:"The five biggest threats to human existence" 2243:Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies 1685:On a long time scale, natural shifts such as 1273:orbit is unlikely in the foreseeable future. 1253:could also be catastrophic to life on Earth. 8: 7446:"Global Warming Good News: No More Ice Ages" 6482:Balzani, Vincenzo; Armaroli, Nicola (2010). 6439:Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 6044: 6042: 5659:"Committee on Science, Space and Technology" 2859:"FactChecking the October Democratic Debate" 2290:"Scientists Worry Machines May Outsmart Man" 1928: 1918:Summary for Policymakers (finalized version) 1755:if short-term, and ice age if long-term) or 1440:, the Earth will probably be engulfed by an 519:, could be induced by the present trends of 8111:: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list ( 7717:. European Space Foundation. Archived from 7593:: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list ( 6914:"Greetings, E.T. (Please Don't Murder Us.)" 6735:M.S. Turner; F. Wilczek (August 12, 1982). 6561:Schröder, K. -P.; Connon Smith, R. (2008). 5585:. University of Arizona Press. p. 71. 4789:"Peak Oil, Food Systems, and Public Health" 4485: 4483: 3051:"EmTech: Get Ready for a New Human Species" 2832:Shannon Osaka; Kate Yoder (March 3, 2020). 2335:Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research 2171:"The singularity: A philosophical analysis" 1038:Food, Land, Population and the U.S. Economy 6949:"FACT CHECK: Extraterrestrial Contact Law" 6880:"Twenty ways the world could end suddenly" 6433:Wolf, E. T.; Toon, O. B. (June 27, 2015). 5749:Stanley-Becker, Isaac (October 15, 2018). 5574: 5572: 4269: 2686: 2549: 363:Climate change and civilizational collapse 7819:. St. Paul, MN.: Voyageur Press. p. 7421: 7201: 7160: 7150: 6969: 6681: 6663: 6596: 6578: 6458: 6418: 6296: 6169: 6093: 5894: 5552: 5542: 5352: 5148: 5070: 5021: 5011: 4965: 4955: 4814: 4614: 3839:. Heidelberg: Springer. pp. 83–161. 3200:"WILL YOU JOIN THE TRANSHUMAN EVOLUTION?" 3014: 2988: 2756: 2746: 2616: 2606: 2522: 2342: 2148: 1608:decimated indigenous American populations 1413:phase, about seven billion years from now 1008:The 20th century saw a rapid increase in 642:For example, scientists worried that the 8045:18: The continuing threat of nuclear war 5647:(PhD thesis). University of Southampton. 3597:The Entropy Law and the Economic Process 2955:Mystery Bee Disappearances Sweeping U.S. 2124:Centre for the Study of Existential Risk 2004:Centre for the Study of Existential Risk 1946:Centre for the Study of Existential Risk 957:World population and agricultural crisis 927:1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident 880: 107:Centre for the Study of Existential Risk 7554: 6973: 6509:Damian Carrington (February 21, 2000). 5453: 5228:Van Roekel, Annemieke (June 11, 2019). 4692:"How peak oil could lead to starvation" 4285: 3419: 3108:Perspectives on Health and Human Rights 2779:Carrington, Damian (October 20, 2017). 2366: 2364: 2362: 2152: 1909: 1862: 1821:A much more speculative concept is the 1759:(if greenhouse gases were to prevail). 1211:National Science and Technology Council 1185:estimates it has identified 95% of all 738:mankind will ultimately face extinction 493:, co-founder and past president of the 8104: 7586: 7558: 6977: 6783:from the original on December 13, 2019 6696: 6488:. John Wiley & Sons. p. 181. 6376:from the original on December 13, 2019 5777:Haldevang, Max de (October 14, 2018). 5664:. NASA. March 19, 2013. Archived from 5457: 5449: 5383: 4639:"The end of India's green revolution?" 4289: 3778:. Norwich: William Andrew Publishing. 3741:Gowdy, John M.; Mesner, Susan (1998). 3423: 3037: 2690: 2561: 2156: 1942:"Global Catastrophic Risks: a summary" 732:to support present and future life ." 152:to unrelated goals. In Bostrom's book 7951:11: Hazards from comets and asteroids 7766:USGS Yellowstone Volcanic Observatory 5836:Mandelbaum, Ryan F. (June 21, 2018). 5396:Kluger, Jeffrey (December 21, 2012). 4863:of the U.S. Department of Agriculture 4040:"ENGINES OF DESTRUCTION (Chapter 11)" 2257:Rawlinson, Kevin (January 29, 2015). 1881:programs in India, and surveys other 1774:and part of northeastern Mexico. 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Archived from 4487: 4478: 4477: 4449: 4443: 4442: 4424: 4418: 4417: 4415: 4413: 4398: 4392: 4391: 4389: 4387: 4352: 4343: 4340: 4334: 4325: 4319: 4318: 4316: 4314: 4299: 4293: 4283: 4277: 4263: 4257: 4256: 4254: 4252: 4238: 4232: 4231: 4229: 4227: 4222:on July 27, 2013 4221: 4215:. Archived from 4210: 4201: 4195: 4194: 4192: 4190: 4175: 4169: 4168: 4144: 4138: 4137: 4135: 4133: 4119: 4113: 4112: 4110: 4108: 4094: 4085: 4084: 4082: 4080: 4066: 4060: 4059: 4057: 4055: 4046:. Archived from 4035: 4029: 4028: 4026: 4024: 4019:on July 14, 2014 4015:. Archived from 4004: 3998: 3997: 3995: 3993: 3984:. Archived from 3974: 3965: 3964: 3946: 3915: 3912: 3868: 3858: 3827: 3799: 3789: 3777: 3765: 3747: 3737: 3725: 3711: 3699: 3685: 3683: 3677:. Archived from 3666: 3651: 3645: 3644: 3632: 3621: 3615: 3614: 3602: 3591: 3585: 3576: 3570: 3569: 3567: 3565: 3556:. Archived from 3550: 3544: 3543: 3538:. Archived from 3533: 3525: 3519: 3518: 3516: 3514: 3505: 3493:Konopinski, E. J 3489: 3483: 3482: 3477:. Archived from 3472: 3464: 3458: 3457: 3445: 3439: 3433: 3427: 3413: 3407: 3406: 3392: 3386: 3385: 3383: 3381: 3375: 3360: 3354: 3353: 3351: 3349: 3344: 3336:"Report LA-602, 3332: 3326: 3325: 3297: 3291: 3288: 3282: 3281:(2004): 339-371. 3268: 3262: 3261: 3238: 3232: 3231: 3229: 3227: 3217: 3211: 3210: 3208: 3206: 3196: 3190: 3189: 3187: 3185: 3170: 3164: 3163: 3161: 3159: 3136: 3130: 3129: 3127: 3125: 3102: 3096: 3095: 3093: 3091: 3068: 3062: 3061: 3059: 3057: 3047: 3041: 3035: 3029: 3028: 3018: 2992: 2968: 2962: 2951: 2945: 2944: 2930: 2924: 2923: 2921: 2919: 2904: 2898: 2897: 2895: 2893: 2881: 2875: 2874: 2872: 2870: 2855: 2849: 2848: 2846: 2844: 2829: 2823: 2822: 2820: 2818: 2803: 2797: 2796: 2794: 2792: 2776: 2763: 2762: 2760: 2750: 2726: 2720: 2719: 2717: 2715: 2700: 2694: 2680: 2674: 2673: 2658: 2649: 2648: 2637: 2631: 2630: 2620: 2610: 2586: 2580: 2574: 2565: 2559: 2553: 2543: 2537: 2536: 2526: 2509:(3): 1205–1210. 2494: 2488: 2487: 2485: 2483: 2468: 2459: 2458: 2450: 2427: 2426: 2424: 2422: 2401: 2395: 2394: 2384: 2376:Sandberg, Anders 2368: 2357: 2356: 2346: 2330: 2324: 2318: 2312: 2306: 2300: 2299: 2282: 2276: 2275: 2273: 2271: 2254: 2248: 2247: 2237: 2231: 2222: 2216: 2200: 2194: 2193: 2191: 2189: 2175: 2166: 2160: 2142: 2136: 2135: 2133: 2131: 2115: 2109: 2108: 2106: 2104: 2092:"Research Areas" 2088: 2082: 2081: 2076: 2074: 2064:Existential Risk 2056: 2050: 2049: 2031: 2022: 2016: 2015: 2013: 2011: 1995: 1989: 1988: 1986: 1984: 1968: 1962: 1961: 1959: 1957: 1938: 1932: 1914: 1898: 1895:world population 1867: 1810:, the so-called 1723:such as massive 1721:geological event 1537:Natural pandemic 1409:has entered the 1368:Astroengineering 1301:Andromeda Galaxy 1297:Milky Way Galaxy 1282:disrupted planet 1087:extinction event 1018:Green Revolution 1010:human population 923:doomsday devices 698:paradigm founder 569:Western honeybee 515:and collapse of 377:Svante Arrhenius 303:chemical warfare 297:Chemical weapons 203:anthropomorphism 138:superintelligent 87:human extinction 21: 8239: 8238: 8234: 8233: 8232: 8230: 8229: 8228: 8194: 8193: 8192: 8178: 8158:Rees, Martin J. 8156: 8142: 8120: 8103: 8094: 8075: 8055: 8039: 8023: 8007: 7991: 7977:Allen, Myles R. 7974: 7961: 7947:Napier, William 7945: 7929: 7915: 7877: 7847: 7843: 7838: 7831: 7810: 7809: 7802: 7792: 7790: 7782: 7781: 7777: 7760: 7759: 7755: 7742: 7741: 7737: 7727: 7725: 7721: 7714: 7710: 7709: 7705: 7696: 7695: 7691: 7684: 7670:"Distant Death" 7667: 7666: 7662: 7655: 7638: 7637: 7633: 7623: 7621: 7607: 7606: 7602: 7585: 7570: 7569: 7565: 7549: 7545: 7531: 7530: 7526: 7488: 7487: 7483: 7473: 7471: 7462: 7461: 7457: 7444: 7443: 7439: 7387: 7386: 7382: 7344: 7343: 7339: 7329: 7327: 7323: 7318: 7317: 7313: 7275: 7274: 7270: 7232: 7231: 7227: 7183: 7182: 7178: 7130: 7129: 7125: 7117: 7078: 7073: 7072: 7065: 7055: 7053: 7048: 7047: 7043: 7033: 7031: 7022: 7021: 7017: 7007: 7005: 6989: 6988: 6984: 6964: 6960: 6947: 6946: 6942: 6932: 6930: 6911: 6910: 6906: 6901: 6897: 6874: 6873: 6869: 6859: 6857: 6853: 6831:10.1038/438754a 6806: 6801: 6800: 6796: 6786: 6784: 6780: 6739: 6734: 6733: 6729: 6719: 6717: 6708: 6707: 6703: 6699:, pp. 5–6. 6695: 6691: 6645: 6644: 6640: 6630: 6628: 6619: 6618: 6614: 6560: 6559: 6555: 6545: 6543: 6533:Clara Moskowitz 6531: 6530: 6526: 6516: 6514: 6508: 6507: 6503: 6496: 6481: 6480: 6476: 6432: 6431: 6427: 6394: 6393: 6389: 6379: 6377: 6373: 6324: 6319: 6318: 6314: 6270: 6269: 6265: 6255: 6253: 6241: 6240: 6236: 6226: 6224: 6215: 6214: 6210: 6200: 6198: 6151: 6150: 6146: 6132: 6131: 6127: 6079: 6078: 6074: 6067: 6063: 6056: 6052: 6047: 6040: 6030: 6028: 6019: 6018: 6014: 6004: 6002: 5993: 5992: 5988: 5978: 5976: 5966: 5961: 5960: 5956: 5946: 5944: 5935: 5934: 5930: 5920: 5918: 5909: 5908: 5904: 5863: 5862: 5858: 5848: 5846: 5835: 5834: 5830: 5820: 5818: 5809: 5804: 5803: 5799: 5789: 5787: 5776: 5775: 5771: 5761: 5759: 5748: 5747: 5743: 5733: 5731: 5715: 5714: 5710: 5700: 5698: 5689: 5688: 5684: 5674: 5672: 5668: 5661: 5657: 5656: 5652: 5640: 5639: 5635: 5630: 5626: 5616: 5614: 5611:Popular Science 5605: 5604: 5600: 5593: 5578: 5577: 5570: 5516: 5515: 5511: 5469: 5468: 5464: 5444: 5440: 5430: 5428: 5423: 5422: 5418: 5408: 5406: 5395: 5394: 5390: 5386:, pp. 5–6. 5374: 5370: 5333:Health Security 5326: 5325: 5316: 5279:(7336): 51–57. 5267: 5266: 5259: 5254: 5250: 5240: 5238: 5227: 5226: 5222: 5212: 5210: 5195: 5194: 5190: 5180: 5178: 5167: 5166: 5162: 5129: 5128: 5124: 5114: 5112: 5101: 5100: 5096: 5044: 5043: 5039: 4983: 4982: 4978: 4932: 4931: 4927: 4917: 4915: 4906: 4905: 4901: 4891: 4889: 4881: 4880: 4876: 4866: 4864: 4855: 4854: 4850: 4837: 4836: 4832: 4786: 4785: 4781: 4773: 4769: 4759: 4757: 4748: 4747: 4743: 4733: 4731: 4723:Energy Bulletin 4716: 4715: 4711: 4701: 4699: 4698:on May 27, 2009 4690: 4689: 4685: 4675: 4673: 4663: 4662: 4658: 4648: 4646: 4637: 4636: 4632: 4572: 4571: 4567: 4557: 4555: 4546: 4545: 4541: 4531: 4529: 4520: 4519: 4515: 4505: 4503: 4489: 4488: 4481: 4476:. gYmPp6lZqtMC. 4474: 4451: 4450: 4446: 4439:MediaNews Group 4426: 4425: 4421: 4411: 4409: 4407:Overcoming Bias 4400: 4399: 4395: 4385: 4383: 4354: 4353: 4346: 4341: 4337: 4326: 4322: 4312: 4310: 4301: 4300: 4296: 4284: 4280: 4270:Cirincione 2011 4264: 4260: 4250: 4248: 4240: 4239: 4235: 4225: 4223: 4219: 4208: 4203: 4202: 4198: 4188: 4186: 4177: 4176: 4172: 4165: 4150:Apocalypse 2012 4146: 4145: 4141: 4131: 4129: 4121: 4120: 4116: 4106: 4104: 4096: 4095: 4088: 4078: 4076: 4068: 4067: 4063: 4053: 4051: 4038:Drexler, Eric. 4037: 4036: 4032: 4022: 4020: 4007:Drexler, Eric. 4006: 4005: 4001: 3991: 3989: 3976: 3975: 3968: 3961: 3948: 3947: 3918: 3866: 3861: 3855: 3830: 3797: 3792: 3786: 3775: 3768: 3745: 3740: 3734: 3714: 3708: 3688: 3681: 3675: 3664: 3654: 3652: 3648: 3641: 3630: 3623: 3622: 3618: 3611: 3600: 3593: 3592: 3588: 3577: 3573: 3563: 3561: 3560:on May 13, 2008 3552: 3551: 3547: 3531: 3527: 3526: 3522: 3512: 3510: 3503: 3491: 3490: 3486: 3470: 3466: 3465: 3461: 3447: 3446: 3442: 3434: 3430: 3426:, pp. 8–9. 3414: 3410: 3394: 3393: 3389: 3379: 3377: 3373: 3362: 3361: 3357: 3347: 3345: 3342: 3334: 3333: 3329: 3299: 3298: 3294: 3289: 3285: 3269: 3265: 3258: 3240: 3239: 3235: 3225: 3223: 3219: 3218: 3214: 3204: 3202: 3198: 3197: 3193: 3183: 3181: 3172: 3171: 3167: 3157: 3155: 3153: 3138: 3137: 3133: 3123: 3121: 3119: 3104: 3103: 3099: 3089: 3087: 3085: 3070: 3069: 3065: 3055: 3053: 3049: 3048: 3044: 3040:, pp. 6–7. 3036: 3032: 2970: 2969: 2965: 2952: 2948: 2932: 2931: 2927: 2917: 2915: 2906: 2905: 2901: 2891: 2889: 2883: 2882: 2878: 2868: 2866: 2857: 2856: 2852: 2842: 2840: 2831: 2830: 2826: 2816: 2814: 2805: 2804: 2800: 2790: 2788: 2778: 2777: 2766: 2728: 2727: 2723: 2713: 2711: 2702: 2701: 2697: 2693:, pp. 4–5. 2681: 2677: 2660: 2659: 2652: 2639: 2638: 2634: 2588: 2587: 2583: 2575: 2568: 2560: 2556: 2544: 2540: 2496: 2495: 2491: 2481: 2479: 2470: 2469: 2462: 2452: 2451: 2430: 2420: 2418: 2403: 2402: 2398: 2382: 2370: 2369: 2360: 2332: 2331: 2327: 2323:, engadget.com. 2319: 2315: 2307: 2303: 2284: 2283: 2279: 2269: 2267: 2256: 2255: 2251: 2240:Bostrom, Nick. 2239: 2238: 2234: 2223: 2219: 2201: 2197: 2187: 2185: 2173: 2168: 2167: 2163: 2159:, pp. 7–8. 2143: 2139: 2129: 2127: 2117: 2116: 2112: 2102: 2100: 2090: 2089: 2085: 2072: 2070: 2058: 2057: 2053: 2029: 2024: 2023: 2019: 2009: 2007: 1997: 1996: 1992: 1982: 1980: 1970: 1969: 1965: 1955: 1953: 1940: 1939: 1935: 1925:Wayback Machine 1915: 1911: 1907: 1902: 1901: 1889:, but that the 1868: 1864: 1859: 1847: 1804:volcanic winter 1753:volcanic winter 1731:, similar to a 1729:volcanic winter 1709: 1707:Volcanic winter 1701:Main articles: 1699: 1651: 1545: 1539: 1491: 1485: 1450: 1444:and destroyed. 1388: 1355:gamma-ray burst 1351: 1349:Gamma-ray burst 1332: 1330:Physics hazards 1232: 1201:Stephen Hawking 1194:B612 Foundation 1148: 1136:Main articles: 1134: 1132:Asteroid impact 1121: 976:M. King Hubbert 969: 961:Main articles: 959: 951:nuclear weapons 943:John F. Kennedy 879: 861: 760: 750: 683: 636: 620: 561:water pollution 553:desertification 509: 503: 487: 481: 369: 361:Main articles: 359: 328:developed world 321: 311: 299: 225: 213:Main articles: 211: 164:Stephen Hawking 160:control problem 134: 118:Main articles: 116: 101:Experts at the 99: 28: 23: 22: 15: 12: 11: 5: 8237: 8235: 8227: 8226: 8221: 8216: 8211: 8206: 8196: 8195: 8191: 8190: 8176: 8154: 8141:978-0415140430 8140: 8118: 8092: 8091: 8090: 8073: 8057:Ackerman, Gary 8053: 8037: 8025:Wilczek, Frank 8021: 8005: 7989: 7975:Frame, David; 7972: 7959: 7943: 7913: 7875: 7844: 7842: 7839: 7837: 7836: 7829: 7800: 7775: 7753: 7735: 7703: 7689: 7682: 7660: 7653: 7631: 7600: 7563: 7543: 7524: 7497:(6): 589–596. 7481: 7455: 7437: 7380: 7353:(7): 585–596. 7337: 7311: 7290:10.1554/05-111 7284:(7): 1406–12. 7268: 7225: 7176: 7138:PLOS Pathogens 7123: 7095:10.1086/419267 7063: 7041: 7015: 6982: 6970:Kilbourne 2011 6958: 6940: 6904: 6895: 6867: 6794: 6727: 6701: 6689: 6658:(1): 155–163. 6638: 6612: 6573:(1): 155–163. 6553: 6524: 6501: 6494: 6474: 6425: 6420:10.1086/173407 6387: 6312: 6263: 6234: 6208: 6144: 6125: 6072: 6061: 6050: 6038: 6012: 5986: 5954: 5928: 5902: 5856: 5828: 5797: 5769: 5741: 5708: 5682: 5650: 5633: 5624: 5598: 5591: 5568: 5509: 5462: 5438: 5416: 5388: 5378:, p. 15; 5368: 5339:(6): 381–390. 5314: 5257: 5248: 5220: 5188: 5160: 5122: 5094: 5057:(2): 640–663. 5037: 4976: 4925: 4899: 4874: 4848: 4830: 4779: 4767: 4741: 4709: 4683: 4656: 4645:. May 29, 2006 4630: 4565: 4539: 4513: 4479: 4473:978-0847672585 4472: 4444: 4419: 4393: 4367:(4): 287–300. 4344: 4335: 4320: 4294: 4278: 4258: 4233: 4196: 4170: 4163: 4139: 4114: 4086: 4061: 4030: 3999: 3966: 3959: 3916: 3914: 3913: 3859: 3853: 3828: 3810:(6): 544–551. 3790: 3785:978-0815515371 3784: 3766: 3756:(2): 136–156. 3738: 3733:978-0631171461 3732: 3712: 3707:978-0803916487 3706: 3674:978-0670297177 3673: 3656:Rifkin, Jeremy 3646: 3640:978-0716711780 3639: 3616: 3610:978-0674257801 3609: 3586: 3571: 3545: 3536:engage.aps.org 3520: 3497:Teller, Edward 3495:; Marvin, C.; 3484: 3475:engage.aps.org 3459: 3440: 3428: 3408: 3387: 3355: 3327: 3308:(7): 640–650. 3292: 3283: 3263: 3256: 3242:Warwick, Kevin 3233: 3212: 3191: 3165: 3151: 3131: 3117: 3097: 3084:978-1443875547 3083: 3063: 3042: 3030: 2983:(7631): 7631. 2963: 2946: 2925: 2899: 2876: 2850: 2824: 2798: 2764: 2721: 2695: 2675: 2650: 2632: 2581: 2566: 2554: 2538: 2489: 2460: 2428: 2396: 2358: 2325: 2313: 2301: 2277: 2249: 2232: 2217: 2195: 2161: 2149:Yudkowsky 2011 2137: 2110: 2083: 2051: 2017: 1990: 1963: 1933: 1908: 1906: 1903: 1900: 1899: 1861: 1860: 1858: 1855: 1854: 1853: 1846: 1843: 1757:global warming 1733:nuclear winter 1698: 1695: 1659:snowball Earth 1654:Climate change 1650: 1647: 1627:anthropic bias 1569:bubonic plague 1541:Main article: 1538: 1535: 1507:An article in 1489:Alien invasion 1487:Main article: 1484: 1481: 1449: 1446: 1387: 1384: 1350: 1347: 1331: 1328: 1231: 1228: 1133: 1130: 1120: 1117: 958: 955: 935:Martin Hellman 910:photosynthesis 906:nuclear winter 886:Joseph Pennell 865:Doomsday Clock 860: 857: 816: 815: 809: 806: 799: 796: 788: 787: 784: 781: 749: 748:Nanotechnology 746: 682: 679: 635: 632: 619: 616: 605:found that if 557:climate change 521:overpopulation 505:Main article: 502: 499: 483:Main article: 480: 477: 416:climate crisis 409:microorganisms 401:sea level rise 397:climate change 358: 357:Climate change 355: 343:Japanese level 335:John A. Leslie 310: 307: 298: 295: 210: 207: 115: 112: 98: 95: 83:supervolcanoes 79:meteor impacts 59:global warming 26: 24: 14: 13: 10: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 8236: 8225: 8222: 8220: 8217: 8215: 8212: 8210: 8207: 8205: 8202: 8201: 8199: 8187: 8183: 8179: 8173: 8169: 8165: 8164: 8159: 8155: 8151: 8147: 8143: 8137: 8133: 8129: 8128: 8123: 8119: 8114: 8108: 8100: 8099: 8093: 8087: 8083: 8079: 8074: 8070: 8066: 8062: 8058: 8054: 8050: 8046: 8042: 8038: 8034: 8030: 8026: 8022: 8018: 8014: 8010: 8006: 8002: 7998: 7994: 7990: 7986: 7982: 7978: 7973: 7969: 7965: 7962:Dar, Arnon. " 7960: 7956: 7952: 7948: 7944: 7940: 7936: 7932: 7928: 7927: 7924: 7920: 7916: 7914:9780199606504 7910: 7906: 7902: 7901: 7896: 7892: 7891:Bostrom, Nick 7888: 7884: 7880: 7879:Bostrom, Nick 7876: 7872: 7868: 7864: 7860: 7859: 7854: 7850: 7849:Bostrom, Nick 7846: 7845: 7840: 7832: 7826: 7822: 7818: 7814: 7807: 7805: 7801: 7793:September 28, 7789: 7785: 7779: 7776: 7772: 7767: 7763: 7757: 7754: 7749: 7745: 7739: 7736: 7720: 7713: 7707: 7704: 7699: 7693: 7690: 7685: 7679: 7675: 7671: 7664: 7661: 7656: 7650: 7646: 7642: 7635: 7632: 7619: 7615: 7614:Science Daily 7611: 7604: 7601: 7596: 7590: 7582: 7578: 7574: 7567: 7564: 7560: 7556: 7552: 7547: 7544: 7539: 7535: 7528: 7525: 7520: 7516: 7512: 7508: 7504: 7500: 7496: 7492: 7485: 7482: 7469: 7465: 7459: 7456: 7451: 7447: 7441: 7438: 7433: 7429: 7424: 7419: 7415: 7411: 7407: 7403: 7399: 7395: 7391: 7384: 7381: 7376: 7372: 7368: 7364: 7360: 7356: 7352: 7348: 7347:Public Health 7341: 7338: 7326:. Wilton Park 7322: 7315: 7312: 7307: 7303: 7299: 7295: 7291: 7287: 7283: 7279: 7272: 7269: 7264: 7260: 7256: 7252: 7248: 7244: 7240: 7236: 7229: 7226: 7221: 7217: 7213: 7209: 7204: 7199: 7196:(3): 455–69. 7195: 7191: 7187: 7180: 7177: 7172: 7168: 7163: 7158: 7153: 7148: 7144: 7140: 7139: 7134: 7127: 7124: 7116: 7112: 7108: 7104: 7100: 7096: 7092: 7088: 7084: 7077: 7070: 7068: 7064: 7051: 7045: 7042: 7034:September 10, 7030: 7026: 7019: 7016: 7003: 6999: 6998: 6993: 6986: 6983: 6979: 6975: 6971: 6967: 6962: 6959: 6954: 6950: 6944: 6941: 6929: 6925: 6921: 6920: 6915: 6908: 6905: 6899: 6896: 6891: 6887: 6886: 6881: 6877: 6871: 6868: 6852: 6848: 6844: 6840: 6836: 6832: 6828: 6824: 6820: 6817:(5875): 754. 6816: 6812: 6805: 6798: 6795: 6779: 6775: 6771: 6767: 6763: 6759: 6755: 6751: 6747: 6746: 6738: 6731: 6728: 6715: 6711: 6705: 6702: 6698: 6693: 6690: 6684: 6679: 6675: 6671: 6666: 6661: 6657: 6653: 6649: 6642: 6639: 6627: 6623: 6616: 6613: 6608: 6604: 6599: 6594: 6590: 6586: 6581: 6576: 6572: 6568: 6564: 6557: 6554: 6542: 6538: 6534: 6528: 6525: 6512: 6505: 6502: 6497: 6491: 6487: 6486: 6478: 6475: 6470: 6466: 6461: 6456: 6452: 6448: 6444: 6440: 6436: 6429: 6426: 6421: 6416: 6412: 6408: 6404: 6400: 6399: 6391: 6388: 6372: 6368: 6364: 6360: 6356: 6352: 6348: 6344: 6340: 6336: 6332: 6331: 6323: 6316: 6313: 6308: 6304: 6299: 6294: 6290: 6286: 6282: 6278: 6274: 6267: 6264: 6252: 6248: 6244: 6238: 6235: 6222: 6218: 6212: 6209: 6197: 6193: 6189: 6185: 6181: 6177: 6172: 6167: 6163: 6159: 6155: 6148: 6145: 6140: 6139:New Scientist 6136: 6129: 6126: 6121: 6117: 6113: 6109: 6105: 6101: 6096: 6091: 6087: 6083: 6076: 6073: 6070: 6065: 6062: 6059: 6054: 6051: 6045: 6043: 6039: 6027: 6023: 6016: 6013: 6000: 5996: 5990: 5987: 5975:. p. 147 5974: 5973: 5965: 5958: 5955: 5943: 5939: 5932: 5929: 5917: 5913: 5906: 5903: 5897: 5892: 5888: 5884: 5880: 5876: 5875: 5870: 5866: 5860: 5857: 5845: 5844: 5839: 5832: 5829: 5817: 5816: 5808: 5801: 5798: 5786: 5785: 5780: 5773: 5770: 5758: 5757: 5752: 5745: 5742: 5729: 5725: 5724: 5719: 5712: 5709: 5696: 5692: 5686: 5683: 5667: 5660: 5654: 5651: 5646: 5645: 5637: 5634: 5628: 5625: 5612: 5608: 5602: 5599: 5594: 5592:9780816515059 5588: 5584: 5583: 5575: 5573: 5569: 5564: 5560: 5555: 5550: 5545: 5540: 5536: 5532: 5529:(2): 627–42. 5528: 5524: 5520: 5513: 5510: 5505: 5501: 5497: 5493: 5489: 5485: 5481: 5477: 5473: 5466: 5463: 5459: 5455: 5451: 5447: 5442: 5439: 5427: 5420: 5417: 5405: 5404: 5399: 5392: 5389: 5385: 5381: 5377: 5372: 5369: 5364: 5360: 5355: 5350: 5346: 5342: 5338: 5334: 5330: 5323: 5321: 5319: 5315: 5310: 5306: 5302: 5298: 5294: 5290: 5286: 5282: 5278: 5274: 5270: 5264: 5262: 5258: 5252: 5249: 5237: 5236: 5231: 5224: 5221: 5209: 5205: 5204: 5199: 5192: 5189: 5177: 5176: 5171: 5164: 5161: 5157: 5156:civilization. 5151: 5146: 5142: 5138: 5134: 5126: 5123: 5111: 5110: 5105: 5098: 5095: 5090: 5086: 5082: 5078: 5073: 5068: 5064: 5060: 5056: 5052: 5048: 5041: 5038: 5033: 5029: 5024: 5019: 5014: 5009: 5005: 5001: 4997: 4993: 4992: 4987: 4980: 4977: 4973: 4968: 4963: 4958: 4953: 4949: 4945: 4944: 4939: 4935: 4929: 4926: 4914: 4910: 4903: 4900: 4888: 4884: 4878: 4875: 4862: 4858: 4852: 4849: 4844: 4840: 4834: 4831: 4826: 4822: 4817: 4812: 4808: 4804: 4800: 4796: 4795: 4790: 4783: 4780: 4776: 4771: 4768: 4756: 4752: 4745: 4742: 4729: 4725: 4724: 4719: 4713: 4710: 4697: 4693: 4687: 4684: 4671: 4667: 4660: 4657: 4644: 4640: 4634: 4631: 4626: 4622: 4617: 4612: 4608: 4604: 4600: 4596: 4592: 4588: 4584: 4580: 4576: 4569: 4566: 4554: 4550: 4543: 4540: 4528: 4524: 4517: 4514: 4501: 4497: 4493: 4486: 4484: 4480: 4475: 4469: 4465: 4461: 4457: 4456: 4448: 4445: 4440: 4436: 4435: 4430: 4423: 4420: 4408: 4404: 4397: 4394: 4382: 4378: 4374: 4370: 4366: 4362: 4358: 4351: 4349: 4345: 4339: 4336: 4333: 4329: 4324: 4321: 4309: 4305: 4298: 4295: 4291: 4287: 4282: 4279: 4275: 4271: 4267: 4262: 4259: 4247: 4243: 4237: 4234: 4218: 4214: 4207: 4200: 4197: 4185: 4181: 4174: 4171: 4166: 4160: 4156: 4152: 4151: 4143: 4140: 4128: 4124: 4118: 4115: 4103: 4099: 4093: 4091: 4087: 4075: 4071: 4065: 4062: 4049: 4045: 4044:e-drexler.com 4041: 4034: 4031: 4018: 4014: 4013:foresight.org 4010: 4003: 4000: 3987: 3983: 3982:foresight.org 3979: 3973: 3971: 3967: 3962: 3956: 3952: 3945: 3943: 3941: 3939: 3937: 3935: 3933: 3931: 3929: 3927: 3925: 3923: 3921: 3917: 3910: 3906: 3902: 3898: 3894: 3890: 3886: 3882: 3878: 3874: 3873: 3865: 3860: 3856: 3854:9783642280085 3850: 3846: 3842: 3838: 3834: 3829: 3825: 3821: 3817: 3813: 3809: 3805: 3804: 3796: 3791: 3787: 3781: 3774: 3773: 3767: 3763: 3759: 3755: 3751: 3744: 3739: 3735: 3729: 3724: 3723: 3717: 3713: 3709: 3703: 3698: 3697: 3691: 3687: 3686: 3680: 3676: 3670: 3663: 3662: 3657: 3650: 3647: 3642: 3636: 3629: 3628: 3620: 3617: 3612: 3606: 3599: 3598: 3590: 3587: 3584: 3581: 3575: 3572: 3559: 3555: 3549: 3546: 3541: 3537: 3530: 3524: 3521: 3509: 3502: 3498: 3494: 3488: 3485: 3480: 3476: 3469: 3463: 3460: 3455: 3454:New Scientist 3451: 3444: 3441: 3437: 3432: 3429: 3425: 3421: 3417: 3412: 3409: 3404: 3403: 3402:New Scientist 3398: 3391: 3388: 3372: 3371: 3366: 3365:Edward Teller 3359: 3356: 3341: 3339: 3331: 3328: 3323: 3319: 3315: 3311: 3307: 3303: 3296: 3293: 3287: 3284: 3280: 3276: 3272: 3271:Bostrom, Nick 3267: 3264: 3259: 3253: 3249: 3248: 3243: 3237: 3234: 3222: 3216: 3213: 3201: 3195: 3192: 3180: 3176: 3169: 3166: 3154: 3152:9780739126332 3148: 3144: 3143: 3135: 3132: 3120: 3118:9780415948067 3114: 3110: 3109: 3101: 3098: 3086: 3080: 3076: 3075: 3067: 3064: 3052: 3046: 3043: 3039: 3034: 3031: 3026: 3022: 3017: 3012: 3008: 3004: 3000: 2996: 2991: 2986: 2982: 2978: 2974: 2967: 2964: 2960: 2956: 2950: 2947: 2942: 2941: 2936: 2929: 2926: 2914: 2913:The Telegraph 2910: 2903: 2900: 2887: 2880: 2877: 2864: 2863:FactCheck.org 2860: 2854: 2851: 2839: 2835: 2828: 2825: 2813: 2809: 2802: 2799: 2786: 2782: 2775: 2773: 2771: 2769: 2765: 2759: 2754: 2749: 2744: 2740: 2736: 2732: 2725: 2722: 2710:. May 1, 2019 2709: 2705: 2699: 2696: 2692: 2688: 2684: 2679: 2676: 2671: 2667: 2663: 2657: 2655: 2651: 2646: 2642: 2636: 2633: 2628: 2624: 2619: 2614: 2609: 2604: 2600: 2596: 2592: 2585: 2582: 2578: 2573: 2571: 2567: 2563: 2558: 2555: 2551: 2547: 2542: 2539: 2534: 2530: 2525: 2520: 2516: 2512: 2508: 2504: 2500: 2493: 2490: 2478: 2474: 2467: 2465: 2461: 2456: 2449: 2447: 2445: 2443: 2441: 2439: 2437: 2435: 2433: 2429: 2417: 2413: 2409: 2408: 2400: 2397: 2392: 2388: 2381: 2377: 2373: 2372:Bostrom, Nick 2367: 2365: 2363: 2359: 2354: 2350: 2345: 2340: 2336: 2329: 2326: 2322: 2317: 2314: 2310: 2305: 2302: 2297: 2296: 2291: 2287: 2286:Markoff, John 2281: 2278: 2266: 2265: 2260: 2253: 2250: 2245: 2244: 2236: 2233: 2230: 2226: 2221: 2218: 2214: 2213: 2208: 2204: 2199: 2196: 2183: 2179: 2172: 2165: 2162: 2158: 2154: 2150: 2146: 2141: 2138: 2126: 2125: 2120: 2114: 2111: 2099: 2098: 2093: 2087: 2084: 2080: 2069: 2065: 2061: 2055: 2052: 2047: 2043: 2039: 2035: 2034:Global Policy 2028: 2021: 2018: 2006: 2005: 2000: 1994: 1991: 1979: 1978: 1973: 1967: 1964: 1951: 1947: 1943: 1937: 1934: 1930: 1926: 1922: 1919: 1913: 1910: 1904: 1896: 1892: 1888: 1884: 1880: 1876: 1875:sterilization 1872: 1866: 1863: 1856: 1852: 1849: 1848: 1844: 1842: 1840: 1836: 1832: 1828: 1824: 1819: 1817: 1813: 1809: 1808:Mount Tambora 1805: 1801: 1795: 1792: 1788: 1786: 1780: 1777: 1773: 1769: 1765: 1760: 1758: 1754: 1750: 1746: 1742: 1738: 1737:Toba eruption 1734: 1730: 1726: 1722: 1713: 1708: 1704: 1696: 1694: 1692: 1688: 1683: 1680: 1675: 1670: 1668: 1664: 1663:Major Ice Age 1660: 1655: 1648: 1646: 1642: 1640: 1635: 1630: 1628: 1622: 1620: 1616: 1611: 1609: 1605: 1601: 1598: 1594: 1590: 1586: 1582: 1578: 1574: 1570: 1566: 1562: 1558: 1554: 1550: 1544: 1536: 1534: 1532: 1528: 1524: 1519: 1516: 1512: 1511: 1505: 1503: 1498: 1496: 1490: 1482: 1480: 1478: 1474: 1469: 1467: 1463: 1459: 1455: 1447: 1445: 1443: 1442:expanding Sun 1439: 1434: 1432: 1428: 1424: 1420: 1412: 1408: 1403: 1399: 1397: 1393: 1385: 1383: 1381: 1377: 1373: 1369: 1365: 1360: 1356: 1348: 1346: 1344: 1340: 1339:strange stars 1336: 1329: 1327: 1325: 1323: 1318: 1314: 1309: 1304: 1302: 1298: 1293: 1289: 1285: 1283: 1279: 1274: 1270: 1268: 1267:rogue planets 1264: 1260: 1256: 1252: 1247: 1245: 1241: 1237: 1229: 1227: 1223: 1221: 1217: 1212: 1208: 1207: 1202: 1199: 1195: 1190: 1188: 1184: 1180: 1176: 1172: 1168: 1164: 1159: 1157: 1153: 1147: 1143: 1142:Impact winter 1139: 1131: 1129: 1127: 1118: 1116: 1114: 1110: 1106: 1102: 1098: 1097: 1092: 1088: 1083: 1081: 1077: 1072: 1070: 1066: 1062: 1057: 1055: 1051: 1046: 1043: 1039: 1035: 1031: 1027: 1023: 1019: 1015: 1011: 1006: 1004: 1000: 999: 993: 989: 985: 977: 973: 968: 964: 963:Malthusianism 956: 954: 952: 948: 944: 940: 936: 932: 928: 924: 919: 916: 911: 907: 903: 899: 898:World War III 891: 887: 883: 878: 874: 873:World War III 870: 866: 858: 856: 854: 850: 846: 845: 840: 836: 832: 829: 825: 821: 813: 810: 807: 804: 800: 797: 794: 793: 792: 785: 782: 779: 778: 777: 775: 774:Chris Phoenix 771: 767: 765: 759: 755: 747: 745: 743: 740:. In effect, 739: 733: 731: 727: 723: 720: 716: 712: 711:world economy 707: 703: 699: 695: 691: 687: 680: 678: 675: 673: 669: 665: 661: 657: 652: 649: 645: 640: 633: 631: 629: 625: 617: 615: 612: 609:and resource 608: 607:deforestation 604: 603: 597: 595: 594:heart disease 591: 587: 583: 582: 576: 574: 570: 566: 562: 559:, or massive 558: 554: 550: 549:deforestation 546: 542: 538: 534: 530: 526: 522: 518: 514: 508: 500: 498: 496: 492: 486: 478: 476: 473: 472: 471:Factcheck.org 466: 462: 461: 456: 451: 447: 443: 442:heart disease 439: 435: 431: 430: 425: 421: 417: 412: 410: 406: 402: 398: 395:Human-caused 390: 385: 378: 373: 368: 364: 356: 354: 352: 348: 344: 340: 336: 332: 329: 325: 320: 316: 308: 306: 304: 296: 294: 290: 287: 283: 279: 278:biotechnology 274: 270: 266: 263: 258: 254: 250: 244: 242: 238: 234: 230: 224: 220: 216: 209:Biotechnology 208: 206: 204: 200: 194: 192: 188: 185:In 2009, the 183: 181: 177: 173: 169: 165: 161: 157: 156: 151: 147: 143: 139: 133: 129: 125: 121: 113: 111: 108: 104: 97:Anthropogenic 96: 94: 92: 88: 84: 80: 76: 72: 69:. Others are 68: 64: 60: 56: 55:anthropogenic 52: 44: 43: 38: 34: 30: 19: 8162: 8126: 8122:Leslie, John 8097: 8076:Nouri, Ali; 7899: 7862: 7856: 7816: 7791:. Retrieved 7787: 7778: 7769: 7765: 7756: 7747: 7738: 7728:February 16, 7726:. Retrieved 7719:the original 7706: 7692: 7673: 7663: 7644: 7634: 7624:February 28, 7622:. Retrieved 7618:the original 7613: 7603: 7589:cite journal 7581:the original 7576: 7566: 7561:, p. 5. 7555:Rampino 2011 7546: 7538:The Guardian 7537: 7527: 7494: 7490: 7484: 7474:November 28, 7472:. Retrieved 7468:the original 7458: 7450:Live Science 7440: 7397: 7393: 7383: 7350: 7346: 7340: 7330:November 28, 7328:. Retrieved 7314: 7281: 7277: 7271: 7241:(1): 15–20. 7238: 7234: 7228: 7193: 7189: 7179: 7142: 7136: 7126: 7115:the original 7089:(1): 37–78. 7086: 7082: 7054:. Retrieved 7044: 7032:. Retrieved 7028: 7018: 7006:. Retrieved 7002:the original 6995: 6985: 6980:, p. 5. 6974:Bostrom 2002 6961: 6952: 6943: 6931:. Retrieved 6917: 6907: 6898: 6890:the original 6883: 6870: 6858:. Retrieved 6851:the original 6814: 6810: 6797: 6785:. Retrieved 6749: 6743: 6730: 6718:. Retrieved 6713: 6704: 6692: 6655: 6651: 6641: 6629:. Retrieved 6625: 6615: 6570: 6566: 6556: 6544:. Retrieved 6527: 6515:. Retrieved 6504: 6484: 6477: 6442: 6438: 6428: 6402: 6396: 6390: 6378:. Retrieved 6334: 6328: 6315: 6280: 6276: 6266: 6254:. Retrieved 6250: 6243:Lincoln, Don 6237: 6225:. Retrieved 6220: 6211: 6199:. Retrieved 6161: 6157: 6147: 6138: 6128: 6085: 6081: 6075: 6064: 6053: 6029:. Retrieved 6025: 6015: 6003:. Retrieved 5999:Live Science 5998: 5989: 5979:November 26, 5977:. Retrieved 5970: 5957: 5945:. Retrieved 5941: 5931: 5919:. Retrieved 5915: 5905: 5878: 5872: 5859: 5847:. Retrieved 5841: 5831: 5819:. Retrieved 5813: 5800: 5790:November 26, 5788:. Retrieved 5782: 5772: 5762:November 26, 5760:. Retrieved 5754: 5744: 5732:. Retrieved 5728:the original 5721: 5711: 5699:. Retrieved 5694: 5685: 5675:February 13, 5673:. Retrieved 5666:the original 5653: 5643: 5636: 5627: 5617:February 13, 5615:. Retrieved 5610: 5601: 5581: 5526: 5522: 5512: 5479: 5475: 5465: 5460:, p. 5. 5454:Bostrom 2002 5441: 5431:December 20, 5429:. Retrieved 5419: 5409:December 20, 5407:. Retrieved 5401: 5391: 5371: 5336: 5332: 5276: 5272: 5251: 5239:. Retrieved 5233: 5223: 5211:. Retrieved 5201: 5191: 5179:. Retrieved 5173: 5163: 5154: 5140: 5136: 5125: 5113:. Retrieved 5109:The Guardian 5107: 5097: 5054: 5050: 5040: 4995: 4989: 4979: 4971: 4947: 4941: 4928: 4916:. Retrieved 4912: 4902: 4890:. Retrieved 4886: 4877: 4865:. Retrieved 4851: 4843:The Guardian 4842: 4833: 4798: 4792: 4782: 4770: 4758:. Retrieved 4755:The Oil Drum 4744: 4732:. Retrieved 4728:the original 4721: 4712: 4700:. Retrieved 4696:the original 4686: 4674:. Retrieved 4670:the original 4659: 4647:. Retrieved 4642: 4633: 4582: 4578: 4568: 4556:. Retrieved 4552: 4542: 4530:. Retrieved 4526: 4516: 4504:. Retrieved 4500:the original 4495: 4454: 4447: 4434:Houston Post 4432: 4422: 4410:. Retrieved 4406: 4396: 4384:. Retrieved 4364: 4360: 4338: 4323: 4311:. Retrieved 4308:The Atlantic 4307: 4297: 4292:, p. 4. 4286:Bostrom 2002 4281: 4261: 4249:. Retrieved 4245: 4236: 4224:. Retrieved 4217:the original 4212: 4199: 4187:. Retrieved 4183: 4173: 4149: 4142: 4130:. Retrieved 4126: 4117: 4105:. Retrieved 4101: 4077:. Retrieved 4073: 4064: 4052:. Retrieved 4048:the original 4043: 4033: 4021:. Retrieved 4017:the original 4012: 4002: 3990:. Retrieved 3986:the original 3981: 3950: 3876: 3870: 3836: 3807: 3801: 3771: 3753: 3749: 3721: 3695: 3679:the original 3660: 3649: 3626: 3619: 3596: 3589: 3574: 3562:. Retrieved 3558:the original 3548: 3540:the original 3535: 3523: 3513:November 23, 3511:. Retrieved 3487: 3479:the original 3474: 3462: 3453: 3443: 3431: 3420:Wilczek 2011 3411: 3400: 3390: 3380:November 23, 3378:. Retrieved 3369: 3358: 3346:. Retrieved 3337: 3330: 3305: 3301: 3295: 3286: 3278: 3266: 3246: 3236: 3224:. Retrieved 3215: 3203:. Retrieved 3194: 3182:. Retrieved 3178: 3168: 3156:. Retrieved 3141: 3134: 3122:. Retrieved 3107: 3100: 3088:. Retrieved 3073: 3066: 3054:. Retrieved 3045: 3033: 2980: 2976: 2966: 2958: 2949: 2938: 2928: 2916:. Retrieved 2912: 2902: 2890:. Retrieved 2879: 2867:. Retrieved 2862: 2853: 2841:. Retrieved 2837: 2827: 2815:. Retrieved 2811: 2801: 2789:. Retrieved 2787:. London, UK 2785:The Guardian 2784: 2738: 2734: 2724: 2712:. Retrieved 2707: 2698: 2678: 2665: 2644: 2635: 2598: 2594: 2584: 2564:, p. 6. 2557: 2541: 2506: 2502: 2492: 2480:. Retrieved 2476: 2454: 2419:. Retrieved 2406: 2399: 2386: 2334: 2328: 2316: 2304: 2293: 2280: 2268:. Retrieved 2262: 2252: 2242: 2235: 2225:Nick Bostrom 2220: 2210: 2198: 2186:. Retrieved 2181: 2177: 2164: 2153:Bostrom 2002 2140: 2128:. Retrieved 2122: 2113: 2101:. Retrieved 2095: 2086: 2078: 2071:. Retrieved 2063: 2054: 2037: 2033: 2020: 2008:. Retrieved 2002: 1993: 1981:. Retrieved 1975: 1966: 1956:November 28, 1954:. Retrieved 1950:the original 1936: 1931:, p. 13 1912: 1887:evolutionary 1870: 1865: 1851:Great Filter 1841:trajectory. 1820: 1796: 1793: 1789: 1781: 1761: 1725:flood basalt 1718: 1703:Supervolcano 1684: 1679:Interglacial 1671: 1652: 1643: 1631: 1623: 1612: 1600:tuberculosis 1546: 1520: 1508: 1506: 1499: 1493:Intelligent 1492: 1477:vacuum decay 1473:false vacuum 1470: 1451: 1435: 1416: 1389: 1376:star lifting 1352: 1333: 1321: 1305: 1286: 1278:tidal forces 1275: 1271: 1257:, including 1251:Solar System 1248: 1233: 1224: 1204: 1191: 1160: 1154:involving a 1152:impact event 1149: 1138:Impact event 1122: 1094: 1084: 1073: 1058: 1047: 1037: 1007: 996: 981: 920: 915:Brian Martin 895: 890:Liberty bond 842: 839:Eric Drexler 833: 817: 789: 772: 768: 761: 741: 734: 684: 676: 672:false vacuum 653: 641: 637: 621: 600: 598: 579: 577: 513:crop failure 510: 488: 469: 458: 455:Kelsey Piper 427: 420:fossil fuels 413: 394: 331:demographics 322: 315:Antinatalism 300: 291: 286:bioterrorism 267: 257:bioterrorism 245: 237:gut bacteria 226: 223:Bioterrorism 195: 184: 162:. Physicist 153: 146:Nick Bostrom 135: 100: 74: 70: 54: 48: 40: 29: 8168:Basic Books 7841:Works cited 7559:Leslie 1996 7008:January 28, 6978:Leslie 1996 6787:October 31, 6697:Leslie 1996 6546:January 28, 6517:January 28, 6380:January 16, 6221:www.esa.int 6201:October 21, 6164:: 438–446. 5815:White House 5458:Leslie 1996 5456:, s. 4.10; 5450:Napier 2011 5384:Leslie 1996 5235:EuroScience 5131:T. (2021). 5115:January 13, 4967:11336/71342 4892:January 31, 4867:January 31, 4760:January 31, 4734:January 31, 4702:January 31, 4676:January 31, 4649:January 31, 4412:October 25, 4386:October 25, 4290:Leslie 1996 3424:Leslie 1996 3348:October 19, 3038:Leslie 1996 2918:October 20, 2791:October 20, 2758:11336/71342 2691:Leslie 1996 2562:Leslie 1996 2270:January 30, 2157:Leslie 1996 2040:(1): 15–3. 1972:"About FHI" 1883:infertility 1839:sub-orbital 1764:Yellowstone 1619:quarantines 1392:solar flare 1390:A powerful 1380:light-years 1335:Strangelets 1292:black holes 1109:overfishing 1078:(a kind of 1054:food prices 1026:hydrocarbon 992:birth rates 931:nuclear war 877:Cold War II 859:Nuclear war 722:Herman Daly 668:strangelets 664:black holes 611:consumption 545:overfishing 485:Cyberattack 479:Cyberattack 233:pollinators 124:AI takeover 67:nuclear war 8198:Categories 8150:1158823437 7145:(5): e42. 7083:Q Rev Biol 6953:Snopes.com 6513:. 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