20:
111:
record famine in all places at all times of drought. One 1997 study, in attempting to map long scale rainfall records to historical accounts of famine in
Northern Nigeria, concluded that “the most disruptive historical famines occurred when the cumulative deficit of rainfall fell below 1.3 times the standard deviation of long-term mean annual rainfall for a particular place.” The 1982 to 1984 period, for instance, was particularly destructive to the pastoral
1012:
457:
29:
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plays a leading role. An AMO warm phase strengthens the summer rainfall over Sahel, while a cold phase reduces it. The AMO entered a warm phase in 1995 and, assuming a 70-year cycle (following peaks in ≈1880 and ≈1950), will peak around 2020. A 2009 study found further evidence for a link between the
191:
Around 1790 dry conditions similar to those of the late 20th century set in and continued until around 1870. After that, a very wet period set in for around 25 years, followed by a return to drier conditions. While the drying begun around 1895 and caused its first large famine only in the early 20th
97:
Since the 1980s, summer rainfall in the Sahel has been increasing; this has been associated with an increase in vegetation, forming what has been called a 'greening' of the Sahel. The observed increase in rainfall is accounted for by enhancements in the
African easterly jet, which is known to induce
208:
The first rain gauges in the Sahel date from 1898 and they reveal that a major drought in the 1910s, accompanied by large-scale famine, was followed by wet conditions during the 1920s and 1930s, reaching a peak with the very wet year of 1936. The 1940s saw several minor droughts — notably in 1949 —
106:
Because the Sahel's rainfall is heavily concentrated in a very small period of the year, the region has been prone to dislocation when droughts have occurred ever since agriculture developed around 5,000 years ago. The Sahel is marked by rainfalls of less than 1,000 millimetres or 40 inches a year,
382:
Based on
Senegal river cycles, precipitation cycles of various El Sahel stations which are related to Solar (89–120 years) Wolf-Gleissberg cycles, and on relations to Nile floods and Equatorial lake levels, Yousef and Ghilly in 2000 anticipated that there is a considerable probability that drought
110:
Despite this vulnerability, the history of drought and famine in the Sahel do not perfectly correlate. While modern scientific climate and rainfall studies have been able to identify trends and even specific periods of drought in the region, oral and written records over the last millennium do not
60:
While at least one particularly severe drought has been confirmed each century since the 17th century, the frequency and severity of recent
Sahelian droughts stands out. Famine and dislocation on a massive scale—from 1968 to 1974 and again in the early and mid-1980s—was blamed on two spikes in the
738:
159:
supports more recent studies suggesting that this interval was dry. Evidence for LIA drought is not restricted to Africa, however. Records from throughout the tropics, including the western
Pacific warm pool, the Arabian Sea, continental Asia, and tropical South America all show evidence for dry
52:
and
Central Africa. While the frequency of drought in the region is thought to have increased from the end of the 19th century, three long droughts have had dramatic environmental and societal effects upon the Sahel nations. Famine followed severe droughts in the 1910s, the 1940s, and the 1960s,
154:
The most recent of these occurred between 1400 and 1750 CE (550 to 200 yr B.P.), similar in timing to the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1400 to 1850 CE), a well-known interval when
Northern Hemisphere temperatures were cooler than at present. In contrast with earlier studies, which reconstructed wetter
465:
The recovery of Sahel drought since the 1990s, coined "Sahel
Greening" by media, is accounted for by enhancements in both the tropical easterly jet and the African easterly jet, both of which are known to induce wet anomalies. Moreover, positional shifts in the African easterly jet and African
23:
More than a century of rainfall data in the Sahel show an unusually wet period from 1950 until 1970 (positive index values), followed by extremely dry years from 1970 to 1991. (negative index values). From 1990 until present rainfall returned to levels slightly below the 1898–1993 average, but
178:
Cycles of several wet decades followed by a drought were to be repeated during the 18th century. Sahelian drought again killed hundreds of thousands of people in the 1740s and 1750s. The 1740s and 1750s was recorded in chronicles of what is today
Northern Nigeria, Niger and Mali as the "Great
119:
of northern Mali and Niger. The populations had not only suffered in the 1968 to 1974 period, but the inability of many to rebuild herds destroyed a decade earlier, along with factors as various as the shift of political power to settled populations with independence in the 1960s,
259:
In 1983-84 Sahelian countries received some of the lowest rainfall ever recorded. However, even though this drought was more severe than that of the early 1970s, the human impact was less severe, since economies and societies had developed better coping mechanisms.
746:
453:
AMO and West
African drought. Later, a 2013 study found that the East Atlantic (EA) mode also modulates Sahel summer rainfall and further indicated that operational climate forecasting was unable to capture this EA impact on the Sahel.
136:. These suggest that Sahel rainfall was relatively low in the 7th and 8th centuries and then increased substantially from about 800 AD. There was a decline in rainfall from about 1300 AD, but an increase again around 200 years later.
269:
summarized the environmental changes that species faced after the late 20th century droughts, some of which includes (but is not limited to) severe declines in biodiversity and increases in other disturbances, such as fires.
460:
Recent "greening" of the Sahel: The results of trend analyses of time series over the Sahel region of seasonally integrated NDVI using NOAA AVHRR NDVI-data from 1982 to 1999. Areas with trends of <95% probability in
243:
The 1968-73 drought severely affected several West African countries. Grazing became impossible and this triggered a large-scale famine that led to the first mobilization of external aid and the creation of the
169:
The first major historically recorded drought in the Sahel occurred around 1640. Based on the reports of European travellers, a major drought after generally wet conditions also took place during the 1680s.
209:
but the 1950s were consistently wet, and expansion of agriculture to feed growing populations characterised this decade. Many have thought this contributed to the severity of the subsequent Sahel droughts.
89:
during the time of the drought) were severely impacted. As disruptive as the droughts of the late 20th century were, evidence of past droughts recorded in Ghanaian lake sediments suggest that multi-decadal
466:
easterly waves (AEWs) accompanied the northward migration of the Sahel rainband. Change in the African easterly jet and AEWs are coupled to a northward shift and amplification of convective activity.
192:
century, the 1820s and 1830s saw a 12 to 15-year drought and regional instances of major famine from Senegal to Chad. Historical records suggest this drought caused a large-scale emigration from the
478:(UNCCD) was adopted and UNSO became the United Nations Development Programme's Office to Combat Desertification and Drought, as its scope broadened to be global rather than only focused on Africa.
474:
In 1973, The United Nations Sahelian Office (UNSO) was created to address the problems of drought in the Sahel region following the West African Sahel drought of 1968-73. In the 1990s, the
65:
killed 100,000 people, left 750,000 dependent on food aid, and affected most of the Sahel's 50 million people. The economies, agriculture, livestock and human populations of much of
433:
and partly due to an increase in atmospheric aerosols. A study published in 2013, done at the University of Washington, suggests that atmospheric aerosols caused a downward shift in the
577:
Shanahan, T. M.; Overpeck, J. T.; Anchukaitis, K. J.; Beck, JW; Cole, JE; Dettman, DL; Peck, JA; Scholz, CA; King, JW (2009). "Atlantic Forcing of Persistent Drought in West Africa".
333:
appealed for international food aid and has taken serious steps to calling overseas help since coming to office in February 2010. On July 26 the heat reached near-record levels over
98:
wet anomalies. A 2011 study found that the positional shifts in the African easterly jet and African easterly waves accompanied the northward migration of the Sahel rainband.
475:
794:
Paul E. Lovejoy and Stephen Baier. The Desert-Side Economy of the Central Sudan. The International Journal of African Historical Studies, Vol. 8, No. 4 (1975), pp. 551-581
429:, these climate model simulations indicated that the general late 20th century Sahel drying trend was attributable to human-induced factors; largely due to an increase in
40:
region of Africa has long experienced a series of historic droughts, dating back to at least the 17th century. The Sahel region is a climate zone sandwiched between the
966:
1272:
245:
301:, breaking a record set in 1961 at the same location. Niger tied its highest temperature record set in 1998, on also June 22, at 47.1 °C (116.8 °F) in
1033:
1424:
Enfield, David B.; Cid-Serrano, Luis (2010). "Secular and multidecadal warmings in the North Atlantic and their relationships with major hurricane activity".
425:
patterns, and that it could be viewed as a combination of natural variability superimposed upon an anthropogenically forced regional drying trend. Using
868:
Walther, Bruno (2016). "A review of recent ecological changes in the Sahel, with particular reference to land-use change, plants, birds and mammals".
987:
936:
803:
Philip D. Curtin, Economic Change in Precolonial Africa: Senegambia in the Era of the Slave Trade, 2 vols. University of Wisconsin Press (1975)
1651:
1659:
722:
418:
502:
144:
According to a study of West African drought based on Ghanaian lake sediments (not eyewitness historical accounts) published in the journal
895:
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Famine", the worst for at least 200 years prior. It caused massive dislocation of the Sahelian states of the time, but also disrupted the
1381:
Zhang, Rong; Delworth, Thomas L. (2006). "Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes".
1679:
309:
hit 48.2 °C (118.8 °F). The hottest temperature recorded in Sudan was reached on June 25, at 49.6 °C (121.3 °F) in
120:
Senegalese-Mauritanian border relations, and Niger's dependence upon falling world uranium prices coinciding in a destructive famine.
449:
555:
1196:
383:
will occur El Sahel Zone in 2005±4 years. This forecast was correct as drought occurred in El Niger in 2005 and again in 2010.
1581:
Giannini, A.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P. (2003). "Oceanic Forcing of Sahel Rainfall on Interannual to Interdecadal Time Scales".
637:
434:
691:
J Swift. Sahelian Pastoralists: Underdevelopment, Desertification, and Famine. Annual Review of Anthropology Vol. 6: 457-478
487:
94:
were common in West Africa over the past 3,000 years and that several droughts lasted far longer and were far more severe.
438:
379:. In the late 1990s, climate model studies suggested that large scale climate changes were also triggers for the drought.
767:
1471:
1149:
543:. Simon Batterbury, republished paper from 1998 RGS-IBG conference. Global Environmental Change (2001) v11, no 1, 1-95.
1674:
355:
By the middle of 2010, another drought in the western Sahel was predicted by several organisations for 2011 and 2012.
289:
Throughout June to August 2010, famine struck the Sahel. Niger's crops failed to mature in the heat which resulted in
917:
1037:
856:
845:
252:. Up to 100,000 people and a third of livestock died. This drought was so catastrophic that it became known as the "
265:
517:
1243:
1218:
812:
1544:
Folland, C. K.; Palmer, T. N.; Parker, D. E. (1986). "Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures, 1901−85".
1500:
497:
834:
422:
253:
200:
was struck by a famine caused by the failure of 1833's rainy season, leading to waves of famine until 1837.
86:
445:
value of ≈860 ppm) Sahel rainfall could be reduced by up to 25% by year 2100, according to climate models.
991:
944:
665:
Aondover Tarhule1 and Ming-Ko Woo. 'Towards an Interpretation of Historical Droughts in Northern Nigeria'
594:
1647:
679:
107:
almost all of which occurs in one continuous season, which can run from several weeks to four months.
1590:
1553:
1515:
1390:
1343:
1281:
1230:
700:
Timberlake L. The Sahel: drought, desertification and famine. Draper Fund Report, 1985 Sept(14):17-9.
586:
326:
197:
133:
599:
180:
1614:
1569:
1531:
1441:
1406:
1248:
620:
350:
54:
421:
indicated that the late 20th century Sahel drought was probably a climatic response to changing
1459:
19:
1606:
1309:
718:
612:
492:
284:
196:, contributing to its rapid decline in the 19th century. In what is now northern Senegal, the
146:
552:
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1361:
1351:
1299:
1289:
1238:
1088:
877:
604:
522:
430:
41:
1079:
J Odihi (2003). "Deforestation in afforestation priority zone in Sudano-Sahelian Nigeria".
507:
456:
376:
318:
1330:
Peterson, Thomas C.; Hoerling, Martin P.; Stott, Peter A.; Herring, Stephanie C. (2013).
1594:
1557:
1519:
1394:
1347:
1285:
1234:
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590:
437:. The shift, the study says, left normally rainy areas in Central Africa much drier. In
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1304:
1267:
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403:
387:
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249:
1200:
1128:
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156:
116:
45:
1618:
1445:
1410:
1252:
1175:
1573:
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624:
540:
512:
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study suggested that the drought was probably caused by air pollution generated in
322:
298:
217:
193:
82:
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primarily was caused by humans over-using natural resources in the region through
1092:
368:
112:
91:
49:
823:
28:
1499:
Dai, A.; Lamb, P.J.; Trenberth, K.E.; Hulme, M.; Jones, P.D.; Xie, P. (2004).
1356:
1331:
771:
541:
The Sahel region; assessing progress twenty-five years after the great drought
426:
297:. In Chad, the temperature reached 47.6 °C (117.7 °F) on June 22 in
66:
61:
severity of the 1960-1980s drought period. From the late 1960s to early 1980s
1602:
1475:
1294:
715:
Eaters of the Dry Season: Circular Labor Migration in the West African Sahel
608:
314:
233:
1610:
1313:
616:
1402:
638:
Severity, Length of Past Megadroughts Dwarf Recent Drought in West Africa
229:
128:
Surviving contemporary records of climate in the Sahel begin with early
53:
1970s and 1980s, although a partial recovery occurred from 1975-80. The
1366:
768:"Len Milich: Anthropogenic Desertification vs 'Natural' Climate Trends"
407:
395:
310:
221:
881:
562:. United Nations Environmental Programme (2002). Retrieved 2009-02-13.
1565:
1527:
1437:
937:"NOAA: June 2010 the globe's 4th consecutive warmest month on record"
294:
290:
129:
62:
455:
391:
364:
338:
306:
302:
225:
78:
37:
27:
18:
553:
AFRICA ENVIRONMENT OUTLOOK. Past, present and future perspectives
1655:
1628:
The Politics of Natural Disasters: The Case of the Sahel Drought
896:"Drought threatens African humanitarian crisis - Channel 4 News"
414:
334:
237:
74:
70:
1332:"Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective"
1642:
United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification home page
1460:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl2.457/abstract
1268:"Simulation of Sahel drought in the 20th and 21st centuries"
918:"Millions face starvation in west Africa, warn aid agencies"
155:
conditions in East Africa during this period, evidence from
1244:
10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2103:TRTATI>2.0.CO;2
1058:
739:"Climate and Man in the Sahel during the Historical Period"
413:
In 2005, a series of climate modeling studies performed at
1219:"Tropical Rainfall Trends and the Indirect Aerosol Effect"
293:. 350,000 faced starvation and 1,200,000 were at risk of
1641:
1108:""Desertification - a threat to the Sahel", August 1994"
640:. Jackson School of Geosciences Online, April 16, 2009.
305:. That record was broken the next day, on June 23 when
240:
all struggled with dwindling rain fall from the 1960s.
680:
Traditional drought and uncommon famine in the Sahel
476:
United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification
363:Originally it was believed that the drought in the
329:killed and sickened many children July 14. The new
1266:Held, I. M.; Delworth, T. L.; et al. (2005).
1176:"Alert el Sahel countries; drought is approaching"
448:A 2006 study by NOAA scientists suggests that the
402:, which changed the properties of clouds over the
1648:Sahel drought: past problems, an uncertain future
717:. Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press. p. 77.
16:Historical droughts occurring in the Sahel region
313:, breaking a record set in 1987. Niger reported
1336:Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
246:International Fund for Agricultural Development
1199:. Associated Press. 2002-07-21. Archived from
790:
788:
857:WEST AFRICA: The Sahel's nutrition revolution
846:WEST AFRICA: The Sahel's nutrition revolution
650:
648:
646:
8:
770:. Ag.arizona.edu. 1997-08-10. Archived from
410:and shifting the tropical rains southwards.
708:
706:
943:. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog. Archived from
572:
570:
568:
1365:
1355:
1303:
1293:
1242:
813:The Sahel, desertification beyond drought
598:
988:"Wunder Blog : Weather Underground"
533:
835:Drought and Man. The 1972 Case History
1660:Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
1325:
1323:
1036:. Oceanworld.tamu.edu. Archived from
419:Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
7:
1508:International Journal of Climatology
1426:International Journal of Climatology
1197:"1970-85 Famine Blamed on Pollution"
1150:"The Sahel: One region, many crises"
115:of Senegal, Mali and Niger, and the
1013:"Google Image Result for sahel.jpg"
682:. Whole Earth Review, Summer, 1986.
183:routes to North Africa and Europe.
160:conditions during this time period.
1501:"The recent Sahel drought is real"
990:. Wunderground.com. Archived from
24:year-to-year variability was high.
14:
450:Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
386:In 2002, after the phenomenon of
1626:Glantz, Michael H., ed. (1976).
503:2020–2023 Horn of Africa drought
32:A map of the extent of the Sahel
1129:"Hunger is spreading in Africa"
967:"Niger: famine on the horizon?"
1106:Eden Foundation (1992-11-07).
1034:"Desertification in the Sahel"
435:Intertropical Convergence Zone
359:Potential contributing factors
1:
1472:"Drylands Development Centre"
1032:Robert Stewart (2010-03-02).
263:A literature review from the
1458:Barandiaran and Wang (2013)
1383:Geophysical Research Letters
1093:10.1016/j.apgeog.2003.08.004
916:Foy, Henry (June 21, 2010).
1131:. Csmonitor.com. 2005-08-01
824:COPING WITH AFRICAN DROUGHT
743:World Environmental Library
204:Early 20th century droughts
1701:
1680:Economic history of Africa
1646:Climate research summary -
898:. Channel4.com. 2010-07-01
870:African Journal of Ecology
348:
282:
266:African Journal of Ecology
213:Late 20th century droughts
1357:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00085.1
669:, no 37, 1997. pp.601-613
518:Great Green Wall (Africa)
488:2005–06 Niger food crisis
140:"Little Ice Age" droughts
498:2011 East Africa drought
132:travellers in the early
1603:10.1126/science.1089357
1295:10.1073/pnas.0509057102
969:. FRANCE 24. 2010-06-25
655:Wang and Gillies (2011)
609:10.1126/science.1166352
470:United Nations response
439:IPCC future scenario A2
423:sea surface temperature
1474:. UNDP. Archived from
462:
254:Great Sahelian drought
162:
33:
25:
1110:. Eden-foundation.org
459:
274:21st century droughts
152:
48:to the north, across
44:to the south and the
31:
22:
1630:. New York: Praeger.
1403:10.1029/2006GL026267
713:Rain, David (1999).
327:respiratory diseases
198:Imamate of Futa Toro
134:Medieval Warm Period
1650:Text, graphics and
1595:2003Sci...302.1027G
1589:(5647): 1027–1030.
1558:1986Natur.320..602F
1520:2004IJCli..24.1323D
1395:2006GeoRL..3317712Z
1348:2013BAMS...94S...1P
1286:2005PNAS..10217891H
1280:(50): 17891–17896.
1235:2002JCli...15.2103R
1213:Rotstayn, Leon D.;
1183:virtualacademia.com
1174:Yousef and Ghilly.
941:Weather Underground
591:2009Sci...324..377S
181:Trans Saharan trade
55:most recent drought
1675:Droughts in Africa
1223:Journal of Climate
463:
390:was discovered, a
351:2012 Sahel drought
345:2012 Sahel drought
279:2010 Sahel drought
57:occurred in 2012.
34:
26:
1552:(6063): 602–607.
1514:(11): 1323–1331.
1229:(15): 2103–2116.
1081:Applied Geography
882:10.1111/aje.12350
724:978-0-8133-3872-9
678:David Tenenbaum.
585:(5925): 377–380.
493:2010 Sahel famine
406:, disturbing the
285:2010 Sahel famine
1692:
1631:
1622:
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1566:10.1038/320602a0
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1528:10.1002/joc.1083
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1438:10.1002/joc.1881
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745:. Archived from
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523:Yacouba Sawadogo
431:greenhouse gases
42:Sudanian Savanna
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1493:Further reading
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1217:(August 2002).
1215:Lohmann, Ulrike
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948:
947:on 19 July 2010
935:Masters, Jeff.
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667:Climatic Change
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600:10.1.1.366.1394
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508:Desertification
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377:land management
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319:gastroenteritis
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281:
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228:, far northern
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176:
174:1740s and 1750s
167:
150:in April 2009:
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83:Burkina Faso
59:
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1367:10261/93203
1059:"SOS Sahel"
369:overgrazing
224:, southern
220:, northern
113:Fula people
87:Upper Volta
1669:Categories
1652:animations
1482:2012-09-25
1207:2012-05-27
1160:2022-10-25
1135:2012-09-25
1114:2012-09-25
1065:2012-09-25
1044:2012-09-25
1018:2012-09-25
998:2010-07-28
973:2012-09-25
902:2010-07-28
778:2012-09-25
753:2008-06-19
529:References
427:GFDL CM2.X
124:600–700 AD
85:(known as
67:Mauritania
924:. London.
595:CiteSeerX
375:and poor
315:diarrhoea
234:Lake Chad
1619:25009125
1611:14551320
1446:18833210
1411:16588748
1314:16322101
1253:55802370
617:19372429
556:Archived
482:See also
408:monsoons
230:Cameroon
1591:Bibcode
1583:Science
1574:4231823
1554:Bibcode
1536:6955930
1516:Bibcode
1391:Bibcode
1344:Bibcode
1305:1312412
1282:Bibcode
1231:Bibcode
951:21 July
625:2679216
587:Bibcode
579:Science
396:Eurasia
311:Dongola
222:Nigeria
147:Science
102:History
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295:famine
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256:".
232:(near
130:Muslim
117:Tuareg
63:famine
1685:Sahel
1654:from
1615:S2CID
1570:S2CID
1532:S2CID
1504:(PDF)
1442:S2CID
1407:S2CID
1249:S2CID
1179:(PDF)
621:S2CID
392:CSIRO
365:Sahel
339:Niger
307:Bilma
303:Bilma
226:Niger
187:1830s
79:Niger
38:Sahel
1656:NOAA
1607:PMID
1310:PMID
1273:PNAS
953:2010
719:ISBN
613:PMID
415:NOAA
398:and
337:and
335:Chad
325:and
238:Chad
165:1640
81:and
75:Chad
71:Mali
50:West
36:The
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