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594:. This involves feeding weather observations collected over decades into a NWP system to recreate past atmospheric, sea- and land-surface conditions over specific time periods to obtain a clearer picture of how the climate has changed. Reanalysis provides a four-dimensional picture of the atmosphere and effectively allows monitoring of the variability and change of global climate, thereby contributing also to the understanding and attribution of climate change.
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635:. The deterministic forecast is a single model run that is relatively high in resolution as well as in computational expense. The ensemble is relatively low (about half that of the deterministic) in resolution (and in computational expense), so less accurate. But it is run 51 times in parallel, from slightly different initial conditions to give a spread of likelihood over the range of the forecast.
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ECMWF, through its partnerships with EUMETSAT, ESA, the EU and others, exploits satellite data for operational numerical weather prediction and operational seasonal forecasting with coupled atmosphere–ocean–land models. The increasing amount of satellite data and the development of more sophisticated
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ECMWF's
Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) was developed as a tool to identify where the EPS (Ensemble Prediction System) forecast distribution differs substantially from that of the model climate. It contains information regarding variability of weather parameters, in location and time and can highlight
361:
ECMWF was established in 1975, in recognition of the need to pool the scientific and technical resources of Europe's meteorological services and institutions for the production of weather forecasts for medium-range timescales (up to approximately two weeks) and of the economic and social benefits
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ECMWF aims to provide accurate medium-range global weather forecasts out to 15 days and seasonal forecasts out to 12 months. Its products are provided to the national weather services of its member states and co-operating states as a complement to their national short-range and climatological
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Forecasts of severe weather events allow appropriate mitigating action to be taken and contingency plans to be put into place by the authorities and the public. The increased time gained by issuing accurate warnings can save lives, for instance by evacuating people from a
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535:, cold spells and droughts, as well as their impacts on sectors such as agriculture, energy and health. Since ECMWF runs a wave model, there are also predictions of coastal waves and storm surges in European waters which can be used to provide warnings.
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project generated reanalyses from
September 1957 to August 2002. The ERA-Interim reanalysis covered the period from 1979 onwards. A reanalysis product (ERA5) with higher spatial resolution (31 km) was released by ECMWF in 2019 as part of the
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ways of extracting information from that data have made a major contribution to improving the accuracy and utility of NWP forecasts. ECMWF continuously endeavours to improve the use of satellite observations for NWP.
53:
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During 2020, the Centre arranged to move its
Copernicus operations away from Reading and into European Union territory. Following bids from Toulouse, Italy, Austria, Germany, Spain and Ireland, eventually
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1964:
Established in 1975, ECMWF is renowned worldwide for providing the most accurate medium-range global weather forecasts up to 10 days ahead, monthly forecasts and seasonal outlooks to six months ahead.
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Over the past three decades ECMWF's wide-ranging programme of research has played a major role in developing such assimilation and modelling systems. This improves the accuracy and reliability of
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To date, and with support from Europe's
National Meteorological Services and the European Commission, ECMWF has conducted several major reanalyses of the global atmosphere: the first
2102:
Dee, D. P.; Uppala, S. M.; Simmons, A. J.; Berrisford, P.; Poli, P.; et al. (2011). "The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system".
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activities, and those national states use ECMWF's products for their own national duties, in particular to give early warning of potentially damaging severe weather.
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628:" (sometimes informally known in the United States as the "European model") which is run every twelve hours and forecasts out to ten days.
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systems for the dynamics, thermodynamics and composition of the Earth's atmosphere and for interacting parts of the Earth-system. It uses
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by about a day per decade, so that a seven-day forecast now (2015) is as accurate as a three-day forecast was four decades ago (1975).
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methods to prepare forecasts and their initial conditions, and it contributes to monitoring the relevant parts of the Earth system.
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expected from it. The Centre employs about 350 staff, mostly appointed from across the member states and co-operating states.
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1756:"Tecnopolo di Bologna. Il Governo autorizza la spesa di 40 milioni nel prossimo triennio, di cui 10 milioni nel 2020"
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area. Authorities and businesses can plan to maintain services around threats such as high winds, floods or snow.
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As of 2021, the ECMWF's weather model is generally considered to be the most accurate weather forecasting model.
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In 2017, the centre's member states accepted an offer from the
Italian Government to move ECMWF's data centre to
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The centre currently serves as the
Entrusted Entity responsible for delivery of two of the Services of the EU's
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an abnormality of a weather situation without having to define specific space- and time-dependent thresholds.
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Hersbach, H.; Bell, B.; Berrisford, P.; Hirahara, S.; Horányi, A.; Muñoz-Sabater, J.; et al. (2020).
2446:"Sun from Behind the Clouds: the Appeals Board of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts"
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1822:"España postulará a Barcelona como sede del Centro Europeo de Predicciones Meteorológicas a Plazo Medio"
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377:, Italy. The new site, a former tobacco factory, would be redesigned by the architecture firm
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Memorandum of
Understanding for Joint Liaison Office with European institutions in Brussels
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is used to produce an initial state of a computer model of the atmosphere, from which an
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Produce numerical weather forecasts and monitor planetary systems that influence weather
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2073:"Moderate-strength Nor'easter may hit Sandy-devastated areas Wednesday | Category 6™"
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ECMWF's monthly and seasonal forecasts provide early predictions of events such as
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The Centre arranged to move its
Copernicus operations away from Reading and into
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601:(ERA-15) project generated reanalyses from December 1978 to February 1994; the
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2218:"Will a New GFS Weather Model Upgrade Close the Gap with The European Model?"
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1902:"European Center for Weather Forecasting: France selects Toulouse candidate"
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1954:. Berlin, Germany: Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure
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European intergovernmental weather computation organisation based in the UK
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ECMWF supports research on climate variability using an approach known as
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monthly forecasts, predicting the weather on a weekly basis 30 days ahead
481:(NWP) requires input of meteorological data, collected by satellites and
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supported by most of the nations of Europe. It is based at three sites:
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1778:"Regierung will Klimawandel-Überwachungsdienst nach Österreich holen"
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In
October 2012 the ECMWF model suggested seven days in advance that
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Carry out scientific and technical research to improve forecast skill
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2181:"New ERA5 dataset provides weather and climate details back to 1979"
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medium-range forecasts, predicting the weather up to 15 days ahead
364:
1758:. CONFERENZA DELLE REGIONI E DELLE PROVINCE AUTONOME. 20 May 2020
1742:"France Applies to Host Top Weather Forecaster Now Based in U.K."
3847:
Information technology organisations based in the United
Kingdom
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3374:
1844:"Govt to bid for relocation of EU forecaster from UK to Ireland"
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is used to forecast the weather. These forecasts are typically:
404:-Weather model for 10-day global weather prediction accuracies.
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389:(Germany) was chosen. The move has been directly attributed to
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Major physics research facilities based in the United Kingdom
1952:"ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts"
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Atmospheric, oceanographic, cryospheric, and climate models
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It includes both a "deterministic forecast" mode and an
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Medium-Range Weather Prediction – the European Approach
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It also has co-operation agreements with other states:
281:
1925:"Huawei Cloud launches AI-powered Pangu-Weather model"
2153:
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
2104:
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
624:
ECMWF's operational forecasts are produced from its "
493:, aircraft (including commercial flights), ships and
1723:"Press kit: Bologna to host ECMWF's new data centre"
665:(Germany). The move has been directly attributed to
563:, which impacted the east coast a week after Sandy.
69:"European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts"
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559:. It also predicted the intensity and track of the
430:To deliver this core mission, the Centre provides:
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60:. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed.
3031:European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
1800:"SO WILL BONN EUROPÄISCHES WETTER-ZENTRUM WERDEN!"
304:European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
135:European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
3026:Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology
369:Aerial view of the data centre in Bologna, Italy.
1873:""European weather authority relocates to Bonn""
1875:. City of Bonn. 9 December 2020. Archived from
3842:Governmental meteorological agencies in Europe
2046:Roulstone, Ian; Norbury, John (25 July 2013).
434:Twice-daily global numerical weather forecasts
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2558:
2366:"ECMWF welcomes Estonia as 23rd Member State"
8:
2298:"Slovenia becomes ECMWF's 20th Member State"
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2451:Journal of International Dispute Settlement
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2329:"Serbia becomes ECMWF's 21st Member State"
2240:"Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service"
2048:"How Math helped forecast Hurricane Sandy"
1846:. Radió Telefis Éireann. 23 September 2020
1609:23 January 2015 - amended 30 January 2018
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426:Maintain an archive of meteorological data
396:In August 2023, the centre partnered with
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3857:Organisations based in Reading, Berkshire
3817:1975 establishments in the United Kingdom
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1931:. Meteorological Technology International
515:seasonal forecasts up to 12 months ahead.
120:Learn how and when to remove this message
3160:Atmospheric, astronomy and space science
2000:"COVID-19: Aeolus and weather forecasts"
1867:
1865:
1863:
1861:
652:Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service
453:The Centre develops and operates global
341:
3862:Research institutes established in 1975
3837:Government agencies established in 1975
1929:Meteorological Technology International
1689:
677:ECMWF comprises 23 European countries:
681:the eighteen founding states of 1975:
539:Early warning of severe weather events
3198:Medium Energy Ion Scattering Facility
2025:"The Forecast For Weather Technology"
1896:
1894:
7:
3524:Regional and mesoscale oceanographic
3103:Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak (MAST)
756:five states that joined since 2010:
58:adding citations to reliable sources
2327:Jeppesen, Joanne (5 January 2015).
2262:"Copernicus Climate Change Service"
555:was likely to make landfall on the
3466:Regional and mesoscale atmospheric
440:Atmospheric composition monitoring
25:
3044:World Meteorological Organization
3036:European Severe Storms Laboratory
656:Copernicus Climate Change Service
608:Copernicus Climate Change Service
3867:Research institutes in Berkshire
2346:Jeppesen, Joanne (1 July 2016).
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843:
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34:
3290:Atmospheric dispersion modeling
3285:Tropical cyclone forecast model
2408:"ECMWF Co-operating Agreements"
557:East Coast of the United States
45:needs additional citations for
3167:UK Astronomy Technology Centre
2216:Paul Douglas (18 April 2021).
673:Member and co-operating states
527:Monthly and seasonal forecasts
312:intergovernmental organisation
1:
3827:Climate of the United Kingdom
3852:Meteorological organizations
3690:Land surface parametrization
3280:Numerical weather prediction
3151:ISIS Neutron and Muon Source
2575:meteorological organizations
2149:"The ERA5 global reanalysis"
479:Numerical weather prediction
463:numerical weather prediction
416:ECMWF's core mission is to:
356: co-operation agreement
2394:"ECMWF Co-operating States"
1824:. europa press. 29 May 2020
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908:
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854:
650:. The two services are the
3893:
3832:European research networks
3098:Joint European Torus (JET)
2195:"Modelling and Prediction"
1976:ECMWF (30 December 2013),
626:Integrated Forecast System
620:Integrated Forecast System
617:
614:Operational forecast model
583:
446:Ocean circulation analysis
3776:
3343:
3332:
3315:Meteorological reanalysis
3255:
3244:
3112:Synchrotron light sources
3018:
2264:. ECMWF. 11 November 2014
2242:. ECMWF. 11 November 2014
2197:. ECMWF. 29 November 2013
1780:. Die Presse. 20 May 2020
1703:. ECMWF. 28 November 2013
499:Assimilation of this data
400:on its cloud, AI-powered
148:
139:
3300:Upper-atmospheric models
3295:Chemical transport model
3177:Jodrell Bank Observatory
3144:Neutron and muon sources
2027:. Sky News. 17 July 2015
1950:Deutscher Wetterdienst.
1904:. en24 news. 30 May 2020
1488:Co-operating agreements
561:November 2012 nor'easter
350: members as of 2015
3310:Model output statistics
2498:ECMWF Re-analysis (ERA)
2455:Oxford University Press
2444:Butler, Graham (2024).
2304:. ECMWF. Archived from
1744:Bloomberg. 30 May 2020.
449:Hydrological prediction
3573:Atmospheric dispersion
3172:Chilbolton Observatory
3135:Central Laser Facility
2468:10.1093/jnlids/idae013
2425:Woods, Austin (2006).
370:
358:
2380:"ECMWF Member States"
1802:. TAG24. 16 June 2020
368:
345:
3872:Borough of Wokingham
3791:Scientific modelling
3305:Ensemble forecasting
3119:Diamond Light Source
2813:United Arab Emirates
2286:. 22 September 2015.
2077:www.wunderground.com
1678:Copernicus Programme
648:Copernicus Programme
437:Air quality analysis
310:) is an independent
228:51.41961°N 0.95081°W
195:United Kingdom
54:improve this article
3877:Weather forecasting
3796:Computer simulation
3265:Oceanographic model
2308:on 3 September 2013
2116:2011QJRMS.137..553D
2052:Scientific American
1879:on 16 December 2020
1260:Co-operating State
711:Republic of Ireland
521:weather forecasting
224: /
169:(49 years ago)
136:
3781:Mathematical model
3716:Cryospheric models
3659:Chemical transport
2525:on 11 August 2004.
2513:on 11 August 2004.
2368:. 1 December 2020.
2183:. 17 January 2019.
2159:(730): 1999–2049.
455:atmospheric models
443:Climate monitoring
371:
359:
233:51.41961; -0.95081
3822:Climate of Europe
3804:
3803:
3786:Statistical model
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3768:
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3328:
3327:
3270:Cryospheric model
3260:Atmospheric model
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2436:978-0-387-26928-3
2133:20.500.11824/1106
1629:
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1537:19 February 1999
1483:
1482:
1461:22 December 2003
1389:20 November 2006
1255:
1254:
764:(December 2012),
599:ECMWF re-analysis
586:ECMWF re-analysis
503:atmospheric model
483:earth observation
469:Work and projects
459:data assimilation
300:
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130:
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16:(Redirected from
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2521:. Archived from
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2509:. Archived from
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2489:
2487:Official website
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2110:(656): 553–597.
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2083:on 25 March 2017
2079:. Archived from
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1601:21 January 2014
1593:8 February 2012
1567:26 January 2005
1501:1 November 1975
1491:Year of joining
1485:
1473:
1471:
1470:
1455:
1453:
1452:
1443:9 February 2011
1437:
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1434:
1425:1 December 2006
1419:
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1407:5 November 2007
1401:
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1347:
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1317:1 December 2021
1311:
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1263:Year of joining
1257:
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837:Year of joining
831:
776:(December 2020).
772:(January 2016),
768:(January 2015),
495:weather balloons
491:weather stations
485:systems such as
355:
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296:
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249:Chief Executives
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3338:Specific models
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3320:Parametrization
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1725:. 3 March 2017.
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1625:31 August 2017
1617:31 August 2016
1479:1 January 2008
1468:
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1439:North Macedonia
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810:North Macedonia
675:
654:(CAMS) and the
644:
622:
616:
588:
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553:Hurricane Sandy
541:
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476:
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410:
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3404:Global weather
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2480:
2479:External links
2477:
2473:
2472:
2441:
2435:
2420:
2417:
2414:
2413:
2410:. ECMWF. 2017.
2399:
2396:. ECMWF. 2017.
2385:
2382:. ECMWF. 2017.
2371:
2357:
2338:
2319:
2289:
2275:
2253:
2231:
2220:. AerisWeather
2208:
2186:
2172:
2139:
2124:10.1002/qj.828
2094:
2064:
2038:
2016:
1991:
1968:
1942:
1923:SYMONDS, DAN.
1915:
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1646:Weather portal
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1585:23 April 2010
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1371:30 April 2008
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1299:1 August 2001
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1295:Czech Republic
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1247:United Kingdom
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786:Czech Republic
778:
777:
760:(April 2011),
754:
751:United Kingdom
674:
671:
643:
640:
618:Main article:
615:
612:
584:Main article:
581:
578:
572:
571:Satellite data
569:
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537:
528:
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475:
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324:United Kingdom
316:Shinfield Park
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3276:
3275:Climate model
3273:
3271:
3268:
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3258:
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3229:
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3199:
3196:
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3191:Miscellaneous
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3158:
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2670:United States
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65:Find sources:
59:
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43:This article
41:
37:
32:
31:
19:
3732:Discontinued
3605:DISPERSION21
3181:
3030:
2808:Turkmenistan
2783:Saudi Arabia
2748:Korea (DPRK)
2604:South Africa
2523:the original
2511:the original
2474:
2459:
2449:
2429:. Springer.
2426:
2402:
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2322:
2310:. Retrieved
2306:the original
2301:
2292:
2284:"MeteoWorld"
2278:
2266:. Retrieved
2256:
2244:. Retrieved
2234:
2224:14 September
2222:. Retrieved
2211:
2199:. Retrieved
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2085:. Retrieved
2081:the original
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2051:
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2029:. Retrieved
2019:
2007:. Retrieved
2003:
1994:
1983:, retrieved
1978:
1971:
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1956:. Retrieved
1945:
1933:. Retrieved
1928:
1918:
1906:. Retrieved
1881:. Retrieved
1877:the original
1850:24 September
1848:. Retrieved
1838:
1826:. Retrieved
1816:
1804:. Retrieved
1794:
1782:. Retrieved
1772:
1760:. Retrieved
1750:
1717:
1705:. Retrieved
1701:"Who we are"
1622:INPE Brazil
1577:31 May 2005
1521:11 May 1995
1511:18 May 1988
1335:1 July 1994
1208:
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174:Headquarters
131:
116:
107:
97:
90:
83:
76:
64:
52:Please help
47:verification
44:
3411:IFS (ECMWF)
3250:Model types
3000:New Zealand
2959:Switzerland
2914:Netherlands
2773:Philippines
2753:Korea (ROK)
2691:Afghanistan
2004:www.esa.int
1935:13 February
1547:6 May 2003
1211:Switzerland
1085:Netherlands
743:Switzerland
723:Netherlands
546:storm surge
489:and crewed
474:Forecasting
231: /
207:Coordinates
158:Established
110:August 2010
3811:Categories
3635:PUFF-PLUME
3595:AUSTAL2000
3454:GME / ICON
3421:GEM / GDPS
3370:GFDL CM2.X
3022:Regional:
2909:Montenegro
2696:Bangladesh
2650:Costa Rica
2599:Mozambique
2312:8 December
2268:23 October
2246:23 October
1979:What we do
1883:9 December
1684:References
1403:Montenegro
1067:Luxembourg
814:Montenegro
719:Luxembourg
642:Copernicus
592:reanalysis
580:Reanalysis
533:heat waves
408:Objectives
216:51°25′11″N
161:1975
80:newspapers
3676:GEOS-Chem
2990:Australia
2904:Lithuania
2788:Singapore
2768:Palestine
2728:Indonesia
2711:Hong Kong
2660:Guatemala
2620:Argentina
2573:National
2302:ecmwf.int
2201:2 January
2031:1 January
1707:1 January
1530:- Use of
1385:Lithuania
806:Lithuania
487:automatic
267:Directors
219:0°57′03″W
3645:SAFE AIR
3478:RR / RAP
3042:Global:
2944:Slovenia
2924:Portugal
2798:Thailand
2763:Pakistan
2758:Malaysia
2645:Colombia
2613:Americas
2519:"ERA-40"
2507:"ERA-15"
2057:9 August
1958:29 April
1673:EUMETSAT
1668:EUMETNET
1632:See also
1614:US NCAR
1534:/Arpege
1507:EUMETSAT
1475:Slovakia
1277:Bulgaria
1157:Slovenia
1121:Portugal
826:Slovakia
782:Bulgaria
762:Slovenia
731:Portugal
633:ensemble
3681:CHIMERE
3640:RIMPUFF
3620:MERCURE
3600:CALPUFF
3450:JMA-GSM
3365:HadGEM1
3348:Climate
2983:Oceania
2974:Ukraine
2929:Romania
2889:Ireland
2884:Iceland
2874:Germany
2864:Finland
2859:Estonia
2854:Denmark
2844:Croatia
2839:Belgium
2834:Austria
2818:Vietnam
2675:Uruguay
2655:Ecuador
2625:Bermuda
2589:Algeria
2112:Bibcode
2009:30 July
1985:11 June
1828:18 June
1806:18 June
1784:18 June
1762:18 June
1606:US NWS
1526:ALADIN/
1457:Romania
1421:Morocco
1331:Hungary
1313:Georgia
1031:Ireland
1013:Iceland
977:Germany
941:Finland
923:Estonia
905:Denmark
887:Croatia
869:Belgium
851:Austria
822:Romania
818:Morocco
794:Hungary
790:Georgia
774:Estonia
770:Croatia
758:Iceland
703:Germany
695:Finland
691:Denmark
687:Belgium
683:Austria
658:(C3S).
375:Bologna
338:History
328:Bologna
320:Reading
277:Website
192:Country
178:Reading
94:scholar
3755:NOGAPS
3671:MOZART
3590:ATSTEP
3585:AERMOD
3564:ADCIRC
3554:MITgcm
3496:HIRLAM
3458:ARPEGE
3441:NAVGEM
3360:HadCM3
3128:Lasers
3091:Fusion
3010:Tuvalu
2964:Turkey
2954:Sweden
2939:Serbia
2934:Russia
2919:Norway
2899:Latvia
2879:Greece
2869:France
2827:Europe
2803:Turkey
2793:Taiwan
2778:Russia
2738:Israel
2701:Bhutan
2665:Mexico
2635:Canada
2630:Brazil
2582:Africa
2538:TOP500
2433:
2348:"News"
1908:1 June
1590:RIMES
1563:CLRTAP
1528:HIRLAM
1472:
1454:
1436:
1418:
1400:
1382:
1367:Latvia
1364:
1349:Israel
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1328:
1310:
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802:Latvia
798:Israel
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747:Turkey
739:Sweden
727:Norway
707:Greece
699:France
667:Brexit
603:ERA-40
398:Huawei
391:Brexit
354:
348:
289:
284:.ecmwf
255:
180:
96:
89:
82:
75:
67:
3702:CLASS
3697:JULES
3666:CLaMS
3650:SILAM
3559:FESOM
3549:FVCOM
3530:HyCOM
3516:HRDPS
3492:RAQMS
3436:NAEFS
3395:ECHAM
3390:CFSv2
3182:ECMWF
3005:Tonga
2949:Spain
2894:Italy
2743:Japan
2723:India
2716:Macau
2706:China
2640:Chile
2594:Ghana
2534:ECMWF
2352:ECMWF
2333:ECMWF
2087:1 May
1553:CTBTO
1517:ACMAD
1251:1975
1233:1976
1215:1975
1197:1975
1179:1975
1175:Spain
1161:2011
1143:2014
1125:1976
1107:1989
1089:1975
1071:2002
1053:1977
1049:Italy
1035:1975
1017:2011
999:1976
981:1975
963:1975
945:1975
927:2020
909:1975
891:2011
873:1975
855:1975
735:Spain
715:Italy
402:Pangu
308:ECMWF
101:JSTOR
87:books
18:ECMWF
3723:CICE
3707:ISBA
3630:OSPM
3625:NAME
3615:MEMO
3610:ISC3
3580:ADMS
3534:ROMS
3512:RGEM
3507:HWRF
3500:LAPS
3483:RAMS
3431:MPAS
3385:CESM
3380:CCSM
3375:CGCM
3355:IGCM
2995:Fiji
2733:Iran
2684:Asia
2431:ISBN
2314:2012
2270:2019
2248:2019
2226:2021
2203:2016
2089:2017
2059:2013
2033:2016
2011:2023
1987:2019
1960:2014
1937:2024
1910:2020
1885:2020
1852:2020
1830:2020
1808:2020
1786:2020
1764:2020
1709:2016
1598:CMA
824:and
663:Bonn
457:and
387:Bonn
332:Bonn
302:The
286:.int
73:news
3760:RUC
3750:NGM
3745:MM5
3741:LFM
3738:Eta
3544:MOM
3539:POM
3503:RPM
3488:WRF
3473:NAM
3426:GFS
3416:FIM
2536:on
2464:doi
2161:doi
2157:146
2128:hdl
2120:doi
2108:137
1573:ESA
1543:JRC
1532:IFS
1497:WMO
379:gmp
282:www
56:by
3813::
3446:UM
2462:.
2460:15
2458:.
2453:,
2448:.
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1962:.
1927:.
1893:^
1860:^
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812:,
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610:.
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306:(
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108:(
98:·
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20:)
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