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occurs when there are consistent differences between actual outcomes and previously generated forecasts of those quantities; that is: forecasts may have a general tendency to be too high or too low. A normal property of a good forecast is that it is not biased.
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of the forecast errors, but other measures of bias are possible. For example, a median-unbiased forecast would be one where half of the forecasts are too low and half too high: see
51:, which provides an automatically maintained summary of the forecasts produced up to any given time. This can be used to monitor for deteriorating performance of the system.
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In contexts where forecasts are being produced on a repetitive basis, the performance of the forecasting system may be monitored using a
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As a quantitative measure , the "forecast bias" can be specified as a probabilistic or statistical property of the
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150:www.apics.org/Resources/APICSDictionary.htm
837:Heuristics in judgment and decision-making
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105:Calculating demand forecast accuracy
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32:of forecasting procedure is the
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703:DĂ©formation professionnelle
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697:Basking in reflected glory
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827:Cognitive bias mitigation
411:Illusion of transparency
877:Statistical forecasting
125:Exponential growth bias
28:. A typical measure of
887:Supply chain analytics
779:Arab–Israeli conflict
506:Social influence bias
451:Out-group homogeneity
421:Mere-exposure effect
351:Extrinsic incentives
297:Selective perception
42:Bias of an estimator
646:Social desirability
541:von Restorff effect
416:Mean world syndrome
391:Hostile attribution
561:Statistical biases
339:Curse of knowledge
120:Demand forecasting
110:Consensus forecast
97:Engineering portal
83:Mathematics portal
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501:Social comparison
282:Choice-supportive
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661:Systematic error
616:Omitted-variable
531:Trait ascription
371:Frog pond effect
199:Cognitive biases
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18:forecast bias
734:In education
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685:Other biases
671:Verification
656:Survivorship
606:Non-response
579:Healthy user
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521:Substitution
496:Self-serving
292:Confirmation
260:Availability
208:Acquiescence
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601:Length time
584:Information
526:Time-saving
386:Horn effect
376:Halo effect
324:Distinction
233:Attribution
228:Attentional
871:Categories
764:South Asia
739:Liking gap
551:In animals
516:Status quo
431:Negativity
334:Egocentric
309:Congruence
287:Commitment
277:Blind spot
265:Mean world
255:Automation
136:References
832:Debiasing
811:White hat
806:Reporting
719:Inductive
636:Selection
596:Lead time
569:Estimator
546:Zero-risk
511:Spotlight
491:Restraint
481:Proximity
466:Precision
426:Narrative
381:Hindsight
366:Frequency
346:Emotional
319:Declinism
250:Authority
223:Anchoring
213:Ambiguity
729:Inherent
692:Academic
666:Systemic
651:Spectrum
631:Sampling
611:Observer
574:Forecast
486:Response
446:Optimism
441:Omission
436:Normalcy
406:In-group
401:Implicit
314:Cultural
218:Affinity
55:See also
851:General
849:Lists:
784:Ukraine
709:Funding
471:Present
456:Outcome
361:Framing
856:Memory
769:Sweden
759:Norway
626:Recall
396:Impact
272:Belief
190:Biases
744:Media
714:FUTON
882:Bias
30:bias
791:Net
676:Wet
36:or
873::
44:.
16:A
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168:v
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