369:... had caught Good sleeping on the floor while on duty during his first night shift. At first, Turing thought Good was ill, but he was cross when Good explained that he was just taking a short nap because he was tired. For days afterwards, Turing would not deign to speak to Good, and he left the room if Good walked in. The new recruit only won Turing's respect after he solved the bigram tables problem. During a subsequent night shift, when there was no more work to be done, it dawned on Good that there might be another chink in the German indicating system. The German telegraphists had to add dummy letters to the trigrams which they selected out of the
1404:
Concerning the First Ultra-intelligent
Machine' (1965) . . . began: 'The survival of man depends on the early construction of an ultra-intelligent machine'. Those were his words during the Cold War, and he now suspects that 'survival' should be replaced by 'extinction'. He thinks that, because of international competition, we cannot prevent the machines from taking over. He thinks we are lemmings. He said also that 'probably Man will construct the deus ex machina in his own image.'
375:... Good wondered if their choice of dummy letters was random, or whether there was a bias towards particular letters. After inspecting some messages which had been broken, he discovered that there was a tendency to use some letters more than others. That being the case, all the codebreakers had to do, was to work back from the indicators given at the beginning of each message, and apply each bigram table in turn in the same way as
574:
be an 'intelligence explosion,' and the intelligence of man would be left far behind... Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control. It is curious that this point is made so seldom outside of science fiction. It is sometimes worthwhile to take science fiction seriously.
362:. The German Navy's Enigma cyphers were considerably more secure than those of the German Army or Air Force, which had been well penetrated by 1940. Naval messages were taking three to seven days to decrypt, which usually made them operationally useless for the British. This was about to change, however, with Good's help.
649:
Good never married. After going through ten assistants in his first thirteen years at
Virginia Tech, he hired Leslie Pendleton, who proved up to the task of managing his quirks. He wanted to marry her, but she refused. Although there was speculation, they were never more than friends, but she was his
573:
Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably
1403:
In the bio, playfully written in the third person, Good summarized his life's milestones, including a probably never before seen account of his work at
Bletchley Park with Turing. But here's what he wrote in 1998 about the first superintelligence, and his late-in-the-game U-turn: 'Speculations
630:
Good published a paper under the names IJ Good and "K Caj Doog"—the latter, his own nickname spelled backwards. In a 1988 paper, he introduced its subject by saying, "Many people have contributed to this topic but I shall mainly review the writings of I. J. Good because I have read them all
379:
had done before. The bigram table which produced one of the popular dummy letters was probably the correct one. When Good mentioned his discovery to Alan Turing, Turing was very embarrassed, and said, 'I could have sworn that I tried that.' It quickly became an important part of the
392:
settings, and subsequently with the general Enigma settings in place. However, while he was sleeping before returning for another shift, he dreamed that the order had been reversed; the general settings had been applied before the
384:
procedure. Jack Good's refusal to go on working when tired was vindicated by a subsequent incident. During another long night shift, he had been baffled by his failure to break a doubly enciphered
1923:
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as "models trained on broad data at scale... will not only transform how AI systems are built, but will also lead to significant societal consequences." Examples of foundational models include
1903:
619:
508:
I arrived in
Blacksburg in the seventh hour of the seventh day of the seventh month of the year seven in the seventh decade, and I was put in Apartment 7 of Block 7...all by chance.
397:
settings. Next day he found that the message had yet to be read, so he applied the theory which had come to him during the night. It worked; he had broken the code in his sleep.
1858:
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270:
parents in London. His father was a watchmaker, who later managed and owned a successful fashionable jewellery shop, and was also a notable
Yiddish writer writing under the
578:
Good's authorship of treatises such as his 1965 "Speculations
Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine" and "Logic of Man and Machine" made him the obvious person for
1843:
618:
According to his assistant, Leslie
Pendleton, in 1998 Good wrote in an unpublished autobiographical statement that he suspected an ultraintelligent machine would lead to
1948:
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497:. In 1969, he was appointed a University Distinguished Professor at Virginia Tech, and in 1994 Emeritus University Distinguished Professor. In 1973, he was elected as a
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The terminology is apparently due to Good 1958, who attributed the method to Turing in addition to, and independently of, Jeffreys at about the same time
1943:
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611:, which will have the potential capacity of running programs with 500trn parameters, was named to honor Good's intellectual heritage. According to
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986:"'A Corrective to the Spirit of too Exclusively Pure Mathematics': Robert Smith (1689–1768) and his Prizes at Cambridge University"
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message. This was one of the messages which was supposed to be enciphered initially with the Enigma set up in accordance with the
504:
He later said about his arrival in
Virginia (from Britain) in 1967 to start teaching at VPI, where he taught from 1967 to 1994:
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From 1959 until he moved to the US in 1967, Good held government-funded positions and from 1964 a senior research fellowship at
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1958:
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485:, where he continued his interests in computing, statistics and chess. He later left Oxford, declaring it "a little stiff".
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1037:. British Society for the History of Mathematics. Piscataway, NJ : Hoboken, New Jersey: IEEE Press ; Wiley.
807:
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879:
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1034:
Breaking teleprinter ciphers at
Bletchley Park: general report on Tunny with emphasis on statistical methods (1945)
326:
108:
354:, from which she had set out. Hut 8 had not, however, been able to decrypt on a current basis the 22 German Naval
1938:
1031:
Good, Irving John; Michie, Donald; Timms, G.; Reeds, James A.; Diffie, Whitfield; Field, Judith
Veronica (2015).
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562:
482:
126:
321:, Bletchley's facility for breaking German naval ciphers, for his first shift. This was the day that Britain's
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219:
98:
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793:
Good, I. J.. “Explicativity, corroboration, and the relative odds of hypotheses.” Synthese 30 (1975): 39–73.
615:, Graphcore aims to take the "first step" towards creating I. J. Good's imagined "Ultraintelligent Machine".
812:
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8–4 in a twelve-board team match held on 2 December 1944. Good played fourth board for Bletchley Park, with
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s destruction by discovering, through wireless-traffic analysis, that the German flagship was sailing for
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In 1967, Good moved to the United States, where he was appointed a research professor of statistics at
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Information, Weight of Evidence: The Singularity Between Probability Measures and Signal Detection
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family in London. He later anglicised his name to Irving John Good and signed his publications "
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455:. There, for three years, Good lectured in mathematics and researched computers, including the
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1433:"In Memoriam: I. J. Good, University Distinguished Professor and pioneer of modern statistics"
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557:(he had learned the rules from Alan Turing). In 1965, he originated the concept now known as "
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466:). He remained there until 1959, while also taking up a brief associate professorship at
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Series B, vol. 20, no. 2, pp. 361–372, 1958, addendum: ibid. 22 (2), 373–375 (1960).
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The Lady Tasting Tea: How Statistics Revolutionized Science in the Twentieth Century
517:
Good's published work ran to over three million words. He was known for his work on
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On 27 May 1941, having just obtained his doctorate at Cambridge, Good walked into
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In 1948, Good was recruited back to the Government Communications Headquarters (
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Our final invention : artificial intelligence and the end of the human era
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198:(9 December 1916 – 5 April 2009) was a British mathematician who worked as a
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539:. In 1958, he published an early version of what later became known as the
401:
Good served with Turing for nearly two years. Subsequently, he worked with
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Bibliography ("Shorter Publications List", running to 2300 items) (PDF)
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32:
1447:"Why a superintelligent machine may be the last thing we ever invent"
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before moving to Bletchley Park in 1941 on completing his doctorate.
57:
700:
The estimation of probabilities: An essay on modern Bayesian methods
214:, Good continued to work with Turing on the design of computers and
1613:"Explicativity, Corroboration, and the Relative Odds of Hypotheses"
1574:
Good Thinking: the Foundations of Probability and its Applications
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Good Thinking: The Foundations of Probability and Its Applications
544:
318:
1359:"Introducing the Center for Research on Foundation Models (CRFM)"
423:
Good was a member of the Bletchley Chess Club which defeated the
1087:. Trubner & Company. 28 March 1945 – via Google Books.
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267:
912:
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222:. Good moved to the United States where he was a professor at
1417:"The Interface Between Statistics and Philosophy of Science,"
833:
Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence
1262:"The AI apocalypse: will the human race soon be terminated?"
1202:"The interaction algorithm and practical fourier analysis,"
719:
The scientist speculates: An anthology of partly-baked ideas
650:
assistant, companion, and friend for the rest of his life.
588:(1968), one of whose principal characters was the paranoid
1289:
Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine
1173:
Kass, Robert E.; Raftery, Adrian (1995). "Bayes Factors".
1326:"Huge "foundation models" are turbo-charging AI progress"
529:
credit Good (and in turn Turing) with coining the term
451:
In 1947, Newman invited Good to join him and Turing at
759:, Dover (2009); University of Minnesota Press (1983),
1320:
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focusing on Good's role in the history of computing
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Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
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Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
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1726:An interview with Good can be downloaded from here
248:," Good served as consultant on supercomputers to
16:British statistician and cryptographer (1916–2009)
1578:The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science
1556:MAA Reviews, Mathematical Association of America
1391:(First ed.). New York: St. Martin's Press.
551:, an Asian boardgame, through a 1965 article in
439:in the top three spots. He won his game against
1904:Fellows of the American Statistical Association
1233:"Will Artificial Intelligence Surpass Our Own?"
1175:Journal of the American Statistical Association
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543:but it did not become widely known. He played
499:Fellow of the American Statistical Association
1924:People educated at Haberdashers' Boys' School
286:, Good effortlessly outpaced the mathematics
8:
1461:"Virginia Tech news release of Good's death"
595:. In 1995, Good was elected a member of the
565:", which anticipates the eventual advent of
266:Good was born Isadore Jacob Gudak to Polish
1859:British artificial intelligence researchers
1679:, London, Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 2000,
907:
905:
903:
702:, Research monograph no. 30, M.I.T. Press,
597:Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
244:An originator of the concept now known as "
31:
20:
1844:American people of British-Jewish descent
1663:Dan van der Vat, "Jack Good" (obituary),
1514:
1068:by Edward Winter; based on a report from
547:to county standard and helped popularise
282:in northwest London, where, according to
1949:Foreign Office personnel of World War II
1849:American people of Polish-Jewish descent
1204:Journal of the Royal Statistical Society
837:Center for Research on Foundation Models
681:Probability and the Weighing of Evidence
1879:British people of Polish-Jewish descent
871:
824:
639:, "007IJG," in subtle reference to his
1884:English emigrants to the United States
984:Barrow-Green, June (28 January 1999).
772:
609:Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence
535:. Good published a number of books on
1491:"In retrospect chosen by David Jones"
297:, graduating in 1938 and winning the
276:the Haberdashers' Aske's Boys' School
7:
1824:21st-century American mathematicians
1819:20th-century American mathematicians
416:, leading to the development of the
274:of Moshe Oved. Good was educated at
1546:Satzer, William J. (23 June 2010).
1066:Chess Notes 4034. The code-breakers
332:after it had sunk the Royal Navy's
1839:Alumni of Jesus College, Cambridge
1829:20th-century American philosophers
1422:, vol. 3, no. 4, 1988, pp. 386–97.
913:"The Times & The Sunday Times"
14:
956:Dan van der Vat (29 April 2009),
803:Good–Turing frequency estimation
118:Good–Turing frequency estimation
1944:Theoretical computer scientists
1677:Enigma: The Battle for the Code
1019:Enigma: The Battle for the Code
358:messages that had been sent to
339:. Bletchley had contributed to
301:in 1940. He did research under
1187:10.1080/01621459.1995.10476572
1127:View/Search Fellows of the ASA
1:
1934:People from Radford, Virginia
1874:British information theorists
1745:, Virginia Tech, 6 April 2009
1702:Mathematics Genealogy Project
1303:Good, I. J. (15 April 1965).
769:; (isbn for 2009 pbk reprint)
721:, Heinemann & Basic Books
658:Good died on 5 April 2009 of
470:and a short consultancy with
1954:Mathematicians from Virginia
1669:, 29 April 2009, p. 32.
1085:"The British Chess Magazine"
429:Conel Hugh O'Donel Alexander
425:Oxford University Chess Club
293:Good studied mathematics at
252:, director of the 1968 film
1222:, January 1965, pp. 172–74.
808:Cryptanalysis of the Enigma
607:$ 600m computer, that uses
1975:
1787:Mathematical eulogy (with
1611:Good, Irving John (1975).
1305:"Logic of Man and Machine"
1152:, Macmillan, p. 222,
779:: CS1 maint: postscript (
1474:Virginia Tech In Memoriam
726:Osteyee, David Bridston;
563:technological singularity
513:Research and publications
483:Atlas Computer Laboratory
189:
145:
30:
1146:Salsburg, David (2002),
958:""Jack Good" (obituary)"
582:to consult when filming
295:Jesus College, Cambridge
220:University of Manchester
99:Jesus College, Cambridge
1260:Hilliard, Mark (2017).
1074:, February 1945, p. 73.
1002:10.1080/000337999296418
813:MacMahon Master theorem
567:superhuman intelligence
479:Trinity College, Oxford
327:German battleship
168:Trinity College, Oxford
1894:English mathematicians
1869:British cryptographers
1864:Bayesian statisticians
1854:American statisticians
1476:, accessed 2021-10-07.
1136:, accessed 2016-08-20.
576:
559:intelligence explosion
541:fast Fourier transform
510:
399:
246:intelligence explosion
127:Intelligence explosion
113:Good–Toulmin estimator
1959:American cosmologists
1929:People from Hampstead
1919:Bletchley Park people
1914:Modern cryptographers
1899:English statisticians
1735:13 April 2009 at the
1673:Hugh Sebag-Montefiore
1590:10.1093/bjps/38.2.268
1015:Hugh Sebag-Montefiore
666:, Virginia, aged 92.
620:the extinction of man
585:2001: A Space Odyssey
453:Manchester University
255:2001: A Space Odyssey
109:Good–Thomas algorithm
1286:Good, I. J. (1965),
1132:16 June 2016 at the
637:vanity licence plate
468:Princeton University
123:Black hole cosmology
1572:(1987). "Review of
1507:1998Natur.393..642J
1420:Statistical Science
1238:Scientific American
1216:"The mystery of Go"
1099:"Good, Irving John"
683:, London: Griffin,
519:Bayesian statistics
441:Sir Robert Robinson
437:James Macrae Aitken
231:Isadore Jacob Gudak
216:Bayesian statistics
44:Isadore Jacob Gudak
1632:10.1007/BF00485294
1311:. pp. 182–83.
917:www.thetimes.co.uk
789:Significant papers
537:probability theory
1795:, 2 December 2009
1685:978-0-297-84251-4
1449:. 2 October 2013.
1309:The New Scientist
1220:The New Scientist
1044:978-0-470-46589-9
990:Annals of Science
885:Los Angeles Times
841:foundation models
839:(CRFM) describes
766:978-0-486-47438-0
751:Good, Irving John
743:978-3-540-06726-9
728:Good, Irving John
715:Good, Irving John
696:Good, Irving John
635:he chose, as his
457:Manchester Mark 1
418:Colossus computer
307:Abram Besicovitch
278:, at the time in
193:
192:
147:Scientific career
141:
84:Radford, Virginia
1966:
1939:Singularitarians
1793:Doron Zeilberger
1709:at Virginia Tech
1652:
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1602:
1601:
1576:by I. J. Good".
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1365:. 18 August 2021
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1332:. 11 June 2022.
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605:foundation model
409:'s group on the
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212:Second World War
196:Irving John Good
179:Doctoral advisor
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1778:The Independent
1769:, 16 April 2009
1757:, 10 April 2009
1754:Daily Telegraph
1737:Wayback Machine
1707:Good's web page
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888:. 13 April 2009
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631:carefully." In
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372:Kenngruppenbuch
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284:Dan van der Vat
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1692:External links
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1626:(1/2): 39–73.
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1584:(2): 268–272.
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1552:by I. J. Good"
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1109:, 6 April 2009
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433:Harry Golombek
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137:Smith's Prize
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1666:The Guardian
1664:
1658:Bibliography
1623:
1619:
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1573:
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1541:
1498:
1494:
1487:Jones, David
1481:
1469:
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1415:I. J. Good,
1411:
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1388:
1379:
1367:. Retrieved
1363:Stanford HAI
1362:
1353:
1341:. Retrieved
1329:
1308:
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1281:
1269:. Retrieved
1265:
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1236:
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968:, retrieved
966:, p. 32
963:The Guardian
961:
920:. Retrieved
916:
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883:
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736:, Springer,
732:
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644:intelligence
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583:
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532:Bayes factor
530:
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476:
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253:
243:
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230:
229:He was born
228:
210:. After the
200:cryptologist
195:
194:
164:Institutions
158:cryptologist
146:
78:(2009-04-05)
76:5 April 2009
18:
1909:GCHQ people
1834:Alan Turing
1814:2009 deaths
1809:1916 births
1739:Photographs
1548:"Review of
677:Good, I. J.
626:Personality
382:Banburismus
377:Joan Clarke
367:Alan Turing
303:G. H. Hardy
208:Alan Turing
184:G. H. Hardy
1803:Categories
1698:I. J. Good
880:"Passings"
867:References
708:B0006BMRMM
689:B0000CHL1R
561:" or the "
481:, and the
407:Max Newman
323:Royal Navy
288:curriculum
239:I. J. Good
50:1916-12-09
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1766:The Times
1718:Biography
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1525:0028-0836
1338:0013-0613
1053:925352548
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970:9 October
835:'s (HAI)
753:(2009) ,
601:Graphcore
334:HMS
280:Hampstead
1773:Obituary
1761:Obituary
1749:Obituary
1743:Obituary
1733:Archived
1648:46979909
1640:20115014
1620:Synthese
1533:26800694
1489:(1998).
1387:(2013).
1271:15 March
1245:15 March
1130:Archived
892:13 April
797:See also
775:citation
730:(1974),
717:(1962),
698:(1965),
679:(1950),
633:Virginia
590:HAL 9000
395:Offizier
390:Offizier
386:Offizier
360:Bismarck
341:Bismarck
329:Bismarck
272:pen name
1700:at the
1503:Bibcode
1369:11 June
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664:Radford
527:Raftery
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1785:Eulogy
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356:Enigma
268:Jewish
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133:Awards
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1789:Maple
1644:S2CID
1636:JSTOR
1616:(PDF)
1529:S2CID
1071:CHESS
857:Codex
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654:Death
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853:CLIP
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