398:
1737:
347:
games had long been part of a forecaster's tools, they could now be scaled up into "massively multiplayer forecasting games" such as
Superstruct. This game enlisted the blogs and wikis of over 5,000 people to discuss life 10 years in the future; presenting them with a set of hypothetical, overlapping social threats, and encouraging them to seek collaborative "superstruct" solutions. The concept of the superstruct was subsequently incorporated into the Institute's 'Foresight Engine' tool.
27:
460:
Guidestar, the largest information source on nonprofit organizations and private foundations in the United States, gave
Institute for the Future a Gold Transparency rating for 2023. Charity Navigator, the world's largest evaluator of nonprofits, gave it a score of 83% earning it a rating of three out
327:
It is not clear how pertinent Smith's observations were to how the
Institute was operating in this period. Sociologists such as Bob Johansen continued to be active in the Institute's projects. Having taken part in early ARPANET development, Institute staff were well aware of the impact that computer
346:
While older forecasting methods sought the advice of field experts, newer techniques sought the statistical input from all members of society. Public interaction, provided via the internet and social media, made it possible to engage in "bottom up forecasting". While roleplaying and simulation
264:
Despite establishing an excellent reputation for painstaking analysis of future analyses and forecasting methods, various problems meant that the
Institute struggled to find its footing at first. In 1970 Helmer took over the leadership from Davidson, and the Institute shifted its headquarters to
336:
New ways of presenting studies to a less specialised audience were adopted, or developed. As an aid to memory retention, 'Vignetting' presented future scenarios as short stories; to illustrate the point of the scenario, and engage the reader's attention. Later initiatives showed an increasing
315:
In 1975 the
Corporate Associates Program was started to assist private organisations interpret emerging trends and the long-term consequences. Although this program operated until 2001, its role as the Institute's main reporting tool was superseded by the Ten Year Forecast in 1978.
323:
Herbert L Smith noted that, by the late 1970s, the idea of an open Union reporting format had given way to the proprietary Ten Year
Forecast. Smith interpreted this as a renewed focus on business forecasting as public funds became scarce.
366:
The
Technology Horizons program, beginning around 2004, is described by the Institute as "combining a deep understanding of technology and societal forces to identify and evaluate discontinuities and innovations in the next three to ten
276:
took over from Helmer, who continued to run the
Middletown office until his departure in 1973. Amara held this position until 1990. During Amara's presidency, the Institute conducted some of the earliest studies of the impact of the
260:
Helmer noted the need for similar improvements in societal modelling. Early attempts at doing so included a "Future State of the Union" report, formatted according to the traditional US Presidential address to the Nation.
939:
Futures research is currently in a state of abeyance and may well be approaching a critical crossroad... The primary focus of futures research in the next decade should be in the public sector where the need is
1767:
328:
networking would have on society and its inclusion in policy making. However, in a 1984 essay, Roy Amara appeared to acknowledge some form of crisis, and a renewed interest in societal forecasting.
1454:
547:
363:
The Ten year forecast is the
Institute's signature piece, having operated since 1978. It tracks today's latent signals, and forecasts what they might mean for business in ten years' time.
1346:
1678:
1604:
370:
The Health horizons program has operated since 2005. The
Institute describes its purpose as "seeking more resilient responses for the complex challenges facing global health".
256:
While precise and powerful, the methods that had been developed in a corporate environment were oriented to providing business and economic analyses. At a 1971 conference on
895:
1757:
1480:
355:
The Institute maintains research programs on the futures of technology, health, and organizations. It publishes a variety of reports and maps, as well as
1752:
1440:
1417:
1384:
1237:
558:
201:. He, and others, wished to extend the work further with an emphasis on examining multiple scenarios. This can be seen in the prospectus summary:
1762:
1563:
1338:
1309:
1208:
1076:
1005:
969:
854:
777:
739:
701:
663:
603:
495:
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and his close associate, Selwyn Enzer, developed a computer-based cross-impact model to generate multiple scenarios as alternative futures.
1082:
783:
669:
501:
1569:
1315:
1214:
1043:
1011:
860:
707:
609:
385:
is intended to provide summaries of the Institute's body of research. The inaugural edition was published in February 2017. Its theme
1592:
1629:
281:
on collaborative work and scientific research, and was notable for its research on computer mediated communications, also known as
1025:
In 2008 Johansen...challenged the group to see bits and pieces of artifacts from the surrounding culture as "provocative moments"
343:
forecasting was adopted as it became recognised that "society" was actually a myriad of sub-cultures, each with its own outlook.
1467:
Earlier this month, IFTF announced a list of predictions for the next three-to-10 years, at the Technology Horizons Program.
1125:
745:
397:
1617:
The prestigious think tank Institute for the Future recently moved into 201 Hamilton Ave., at the corner of Emerson Street.
883:
1176:
1495:
461:
of four stars, stating, "If this organization aligns with your passions and values, you can give with confidence."
216:
To seek means by which the probability of their occurrence can be enhanced through appropriate purposeful action.
1528:
816:
769:
The Study of the Future: An Introduction to the Art and Science of Understanding and Shaping Tomorrow's World
227:
66:
266:
257:
1409:
1369:
1245:
410:
245:
The Institute's work initially relied on the forecasting methods built upon by Helmer while at RAND. The
1449:
1147:
J.A. English-Lueck; Charles N. Darrah; Andrea Saveri (2002). Brian D. Loader; William H. Dutton (eds.).
375:
250:
153:
405:
As of 2016 the Institute's executive director is Marina Gorbis. Also associated with the institute are
206:
To explore systematically the possible futures for our nation and for the international community.
337:
emphasis on narrative engagement, e.g. 'Artifacts of the future', and 'Human-future interaction'.
1168:
293:
731:
The Heart of the Internet: An Insider's View of the Origin and Promise of the On-Line Revolution
961:
1559:
1305:
1204:
1072:
1066:
1039:
1001:
965:
850:
773:
767:
735:
697:
659:
653:
599:
491:
485:
1679:"Charity Navigator Rates Nonprofits' Culture & Community by Assessing Feedback Practices"
1551:
1297:
1198:
993:
842:
691:
1483:
Top Ten Impediments to Better Health & Health Care in the United States [SR-900]
1276:
1160:
1117:
930:
587:
190:
161:
524:
406:
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concentrated on the Technology Horizons Program's studies on human and machine symbiosis.
198:
165:
1736:
954:
414:
296:
289:
239:
86:
1121:
596:
International Seminar on Trends in Mathematical Modelling: Venice, 13–18 December 1971
1746:
1172:
934:
418:
246:
194:
249:
was used to glean information from multiple anonymous sources. It was augmented by
1702:
1105:
729:
1368:
Andrea Saveri; Howard Rheingold; Alex Soojung-Kim Pang; Kathi Vian (June 2004).
340:
320:
300:
231:
186:
78:
1653:
1281:
1260:
1164:
304:
235:
157:
82:
1148:
436:
359:, a blog on emerging technologies. It offers three programs to its clients:
282:
273:
99:
211:
To ascertain which among these possible futures seems desirable, and why.
164:
to help organizations plan for the long-term future, a subject known as
278:
1149:"Trusting Strangers: Work Relationships in Four High-Tech Communities"
808:
26:
1520:
1200:
Being and Well-Being: Health and the Working Bodies of Silicon Valley
374:
In 2014 the Institute moved its headquarters to 201 Hamilton Avenue,
1259:
Jörg Schatzmann; René Schäfer; Frederik Eichelbaum (December 2013).
253:, which encouraged analysts to consider multiple future scenarios.
396:
1595:
ShopTalk: Ming's still open, downtown Palo Alto retail moves out
996:
A Generous Community: Being the Church in a New Missionary Age
1554:
Get There Early: Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present
1630:"GuideStar.org - Your key source for NonProfit information"
1339:"Predictions About The Last Decade, From Futurists In 2005"
230:. The initial group was led by Frank Davidson and included
1443:
What's next? Predictions from the Institute for the Future
956:
Facilitating Learning Organizations: Making Learning Count
1703:"Charity Navigator - Rating for Institute for the Future"
1439:(reprinted from InnovationNewsDaily) (11 January 2012).
1300:
Designing Culture: The Technological Imagination at Work
1768:
Non-profit organizations based in Palo Alto, California
193:, Helmer had already been involved with developing the
124:
Ten Year Forecast, Technology Horizons, Health Horizons
919:
New directions for futures research —setting the stage
527:. Organising Committee for an Institute for the Future
160:. It was established, in 1968, as a spin-off from the
1263:
Foresight 2.0 - Definition, overview & evaluation
845:. In Kenneth C. Land; Stephen H. Schneider (eds.).
128:
120:
110:
93:
73:
49:
41:
33:
1730:
953:
590:The Role of Futures Research in Societal Modelling
133:
1040:"Jason Tester: Case for Human-Future Interaction"
1372:Toward a New Literacy of Cooperation in Business
1654:"INSTITUTE FOR THE FUTURE - GuideStar Profile"
1558:. Berrett-Koehler Publishers Inc. p. 42.
1238:"MMOs to help futurists solve world problems?"
952:Victoria J. Marsick; Karen E. Watkins (1999).
847:Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences
803:
801:
548:"Should Probabilities Be Used with Scenarios?"
1104:Victoria M. Razak (2000). T Stevenson (ed.).
1068:Foresight in Organizations: Methods and Tools
886:Study Says Technology Could Transform Society
693:Electronic enterprises: looking to the future
647:
645:
479:
477:
475:
473:
8:
586:Olaf Helmer (May 2009). Nigel Hawkes (ed.).
525:"Prospectus for an Institute for the Future"
19:
1735:
25:
18:
1304:. Duke University Press. pp. 52–53.
1280:
490:. World Future Society. pp. 196–97.
1203:. Stanford University Press. p. x.
1197:J.A. English-Lueck (20 September 2010).
1153:Information, Communication & Society
1065:Patrick van der Duin (13 January 2016).
696:. DIANE Publishing. 1994. pp. 44–.
523:Olaf Helmer; et al. (26 May 1966).
303:Bob Johansen, and technology forecaster
772:. Transaction publishers. p. 241.
487:Futuring: The Exploration of the Future
469:
1758:Think tanks based in the United States
1349:from the original on 19 February 2017
1106:"Essays in Anticipatory Anthropology"
1000:. Church publishing inc. p. 26.
185:may be found in a 1966 Prospectus by
7:
1572:from the original on 19 October 2021
1318:from the original on 19 October 2021
1269:European Journal of Futures Research
1236:Terdiman, Daniel (January 9, 2009).
1217:from the original on 19 October 2021
1085:from the original on 19 October 2021
1038:David Pescovitz (21 February 2007).
1014:from the original on 19 October 2021
863:from the original on 19 October 2021
819:from the original on 18 October 2017
786:from the original on 19 October 2021
612:from the original on 19 October 2021
1337:Schwartz, Ariel (20 January 2015).
811:Catalog entry for Ten year forecast
381:The Institute's annual publication
181:First references to the idea of an
1607:from the original on 10 March 2016
992:C. Andrew Doyle (1 October 2015).
655:Studies in 20th Century Philosophy
288:Starting from the early seventies
14:
1753:1968 establishments in California
1531:from the original on 6 March 2016
1457:from the original on 1 March 2016
1420:from the original on 6 March 2016
1390:from the original on 6 March 2016
1046:from the original on 3 March 2016
898:from the original on 5 March 2016
882:Robert Rheinhold (14 June 1982).
843:"The Social Forecasting Industry"
829:Publishing history: began in 1978
766:Edward Cornish (1 January 1977).
332:Evolution of societal forecasting
226:The Institute opened in 1968, in
1128:from the original on 17 May 2020
672:from the original on 17 May 2020
652:Nicholas Rescher (28 Feb 2005).
633:On the Future State of the Union
504:from the original on 17 May 2020
156:, US–based not-for-profit
1179:from the original on 2020-08-31
748:from the original on 2020-05-17
710:from the original on 2020-05-17
546:Stephen M. Millett (May 2009).
1550:Bob Johansen (1 August 2007).
1381:Technological Horizons Program
311:An increase in corporate focus
1:
1763:Futures studies organizations
1591:Daryl Savage (23 June 2014).
1296:Anne Balsamo (19 June 2011).
1122:10.1016/s0016-3287(00)00022-7
960:. Gower publishing. pp.
658:. Ontos Verlag. p. 203.
16:American non-profit thinktank
935:10.1016/0016-3287(84)90103-4
1410:"IFTF: Technology Horizons"
55:; 56 years ago
1784:
1071:. Routledge. p. 228.
917:Roy Amara (August 1984). "
555:Journal of Futures Studies
1282:10.1007/s40309-013-0015-4
1165:10.1080/13691180110117677
24:
1707:www.charitynavigator.org
849:. Springer. p. 43.
841:Herbert L Smith (1987).
445:Bob Johansen (1996–2004)
430:Frank Davidson (1968–70)
183:Institute for the Future
146:Institute for the Future
20:Institute for the Future
1521:"IFTF: Health Horizons"
1492:Health Horizons Program
728:Jacques Vallee (2003).
557:: 61–68. Archived from
484:Edward Cornish (2004).
242:, and Theodore Gordon.
228:Middletown, Connecticut
67:Middletown, Connecticut
1479:Bern Shen (May 2005).
442:Ian Morrison (1990–96)
402:
267:Menlo Park, California
258:mathematical modelling
1450:Mother Nature Network
1248:on 27 September 2015.
631:Olaf Helmer (1972), "
451:Marina Gorbis (2006–)
448:Peter Banks (2004–06)
400:
387:The New Body Language
376:Palo Alto, California
251:Cross Impact Analysis
189:and others. While at
154:Palo Alto, California
97:201 Hamilton Avenue,
89:, and Theodore Gordon
1677:Charity Navigator.
411:Anthony M. Townsend
401:Marina Gorbis, 2013
21:
1683:www.prnewswire.com
734:. Jacques Vallee.
433:Olaf Helmer (1970)
403:
294:computer scientist
45:Future Forecasting
1658:www.guidestar.org
1565:978-1-4596-0919-8
1311:978-0-8223-4445-2
1210:978-0-8047-7579-3
1078:978-1-317-54315-2
1007:978-0-8192-3231-1
971:978-0-566-08039-5
856:978-94-009-4011-6
779:978-1-4128-3925-9
741:978-1-57174-369-5
703:978-1-4289-2051-4
665:978-3-937202-78-5
605:978-3-642-80733-6
497:978-0-930242-57-2
307:worked for IFTF.
142:
141:
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1731:Official website
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1634:www.linkedin.com
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1601:Palo Alto Online
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1494:. Archived from
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1244:. Archived from
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191:RAND Corporation
162:RAND Corporation
138:
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77:Frank Davidson,
63:
61:
56:
29:
22:
1783:
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1778:
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1501:on 6 March 2016
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1042:. Boing Boing.
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564:on 3 March 2016
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407:David Pescovitz
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199:futures studies
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166:futures studies
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69:, United States
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1159:(1): 90–108.
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