479:". The basic difference to Internet Delphi is that the process of a Real-Time Delphi is not characterised by single iterated rounds. In fact, real-time calculation and provision of responses are the key characteristics of Real-Time Delphis. Various other labels for Real-Time Delphi can be found in literature and many authors are not completely aware of the differences: "Electronic Delphi", "Computer Delphi", "Computer-aided Delphi", and "Technology Delphi". However, it is important to truly understand the design and process a researcher has chosen to find out whether real-time calculations and provisions have been applied or not.
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round-less approach is the fact that, in order to take part in the study, participants can login and logout with their personalised account as often as they want during the time frame provided. Their already given answers will be saved and recalled when they login the next time. So, by design of the study, there are no explicit single rounds to answer the questions. Updating and playing back the information to the other participants follow immediately in succession to the process of answering. Here, it becomes clear that the process of answering can be
521:, the Real-Time Delphi approach is characterised by a continuous round-less procedure leading to a reduced time frame needed to conduct such studies. Consequently, conducting large-scale studies of huge complexity in a relatively short period of time becomes possible. Another core methodological innovation is the fact that experts may not only judge once or twice, depending on the number of rounds, as it has been usual in a Conventional Delphi study. During a Real-Time Delphi, experts can independently reassess their responses as often as they want.
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First, they can login to the portal whenever they want; therefore, one could argue that the degree of convenience of taking part is increased for the participant due to a 24-hour availability of the portal. Second, panellists can contribute to whatever aspects in the questionnaire they want, especially when having gone through each question at least once. Here, a substantial aspect of Real-Time
Delphis becomes obvious: Turoff and Hiltz explain that a Real-Time Delphi study offers a design of
854:. The author argues that computer-based Delphi can be especially relevant in the context of e-democracy, not only for the roundless approach, the real-time updating of statistical response, or the large number of panellists, but for the possibility to establish split panels corresponding to different groups (such as policy-makers, experts, and citizens), which the administrator can give different tasks and privileges, depending on the issues and the type of decision-making process.
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553:"reasons window" opens, which shows the statements of other participants to underline their point of view. So, the respective legitimisations given by others may cause a respondent to recapture his own point of view. In the next step the expert can change his own answer, add new arguments to underline his point of view, or leave his answer unchanged. In addition, the
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first time and getting a second sheet with the group responses in the second round, the Real-Time Delphi already shows the second screen (i.e. group responses) immediately after answering each question. Having answered each question at least once, the participant can usually control which question to reassess from a "consensus portal", which serves as a kind of
544:– usually web-based – is needed for facilitating real-time calculations and visualisation of results. It is generally proposed in the existing literature that the experts participating in the study see not only their own answers but also the median and interquartile range of all given responses immediately after answering a quantitative question. Besides the
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414:(i.e. participants could independently login and logout how often and when they desired). The stated aspects are some of the key characteristics of Real-Time Delphi studies, which shows that the original idea of conducting such studies can be traced back to the respective year. Today, nevertheless, technological
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The key features of Delphi studies, such as anonymity, controlled feedback and group response, are also met in the context of Real-Time Delphi studies. However, the issue of iteration is, by design of the technique, not valid for Real-Time Delphi studies anymore. Instead of answering each question a
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In 2017, Angenheyster and colleagues published a study, which compares various Real-time Delphi platforms. Analysis criteria include among others visual appearance, data output, user friendliness, administration, and types of questions. A cross-disciplinary study by
Beiderbeck et al. focused on new
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The greatest weakness of the real-time approach is that it is missing a wholly integrated, scientifically founded concept. The real-time Delphi idea is still a very new concept, which requires further research and application to become a tool for full-scale operations. Especially the editing of the
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The basic strengths of a Real-Time Delphi study are its efficiency and applicability to all Delphi topics (i.e. common problem sets, decision making issues, cross impact studies, etc.). Figure 2 illustrates that the process of a Real-Time Delphi differs. Important is to point out that the number of
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during and improved possibilities for analysis after the study. Additionally, the
Internet provides the possibility to invite a worldwide expert panel to participate in the study. Second, the degree of interaction among the experts can be increased due to the fact that they can immediately react on
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range (IQR). It has to be pointed out that the numerical visualisations as well as the qualitative inputs change in the course of other participants changing their responses. Consequently, a participant can find out to what extent his own responses from an earlier point of time are still within the
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Based on the findings in this seminal paper, Heiko von der Gracht developed a second Real-time Delphi platform until 2008. In subsequent years, von der Gracht and colleagues used the platform extensively for prospective research studies. In 2011, von der Gracht and Gordon presented a joint paper at
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can be reached, which is one of the major advantages of web-based tools. Turoff and Hiltz argue that the issue of asynchronous interaction is probably one of the least understood characteristics of Real-Time
Delphis. Zipfinger points out two advantages of asynchronous participation of the experts:
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or significantly different from the median. This application helps to see and understand immediately the own assessment and to think about reasons for the deviation from group opinions or else a high degree of consent. The respondent's attention will be called by highlighting questions with a high
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needed during the response phases (i.e. after opening the online tool) are usually less. Having developed the online tool in advance, the intermediate analysis done by the facilitator of the study is rather uncomplicated in comparison to the
Conventional Delphi. The overall shortened time period
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As with all Delphi studies, the process of defining and selecting experts is still extremely important. The
Conventional Delphi study is then divided into several steps of response round, analysis through the facilitator, playing back the information, next response round, and so on. However, the
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of participants can be shown which serves as a justification for their numerical assessment of the question. Additionally, it can be shown to the expert how many respondents have already given their answers. To examine the qualitative arguments of others participants can click on a button, and a
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with regard to the time frame needed to perform such studies. Friedewald, von
Oertzen, and Cuhls underline that aspect by writing, in "a Real-Time-Delphi, the participants do not only judge twice but can change their opinion as often as they like when they see the aggregated results of the other
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Monguet, J., Ferruzca, M., GutiĂ©rrez, A., Alatriste, Y., MartĂnez, C., Cordoba, C., Fernández, J., et al. (2010). Vector
Consensus: Decision Making for Collaborative Innovation Communities. Communications in Computer and Information Science (Vol. 110, pp. 218–227). Viana do Castelo, Portugal:
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After operating a question in the described procedure, the participant can continue to the next question or press a "save"-button in the program, which leads to an immediate update of the median, interquartile range, and given arguments, and then leave the program. A second advantage of the
375:. Friedewald et al. further state that the Real-Time Delphi method has beneath its explorative and predictive elements also normative and communicative elements. These latter are investigated by Bolognini, who explores the potential of computer-based Delphi as a communication technique for
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The typical Real-Time Delphi process can be described in the way that participants get access to an online questionnaire portal for a certain time frame, within which they are allowed to log in and log out as often as they want. Whenever they login, they will see all their
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connected wirelessly to the web site where the software resides, with anticipated completion of the exercise in say 20 min.". On the other hand, it can be thought of a larger panel of experts operating asynchronously from remote locations within a longer period of time.
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connections, high definition graphic, and advanced processor performance) facilitate more sophisticated studies in this context. The general idea to develop a faster advanced form of Delphi studies by using ideas and basic concepts of Turoff, was initiated by the U.S.
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Gordon and Pease point out that a Real-Time Delphi study is applicable for a wide range of possible circumstances under which the consultation of experts is necessary. On the one hand, the authors give the example of a "small group operating synchronously in a
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Having asked the question how the accomplishment of a Real-Time Delphi study differs from conducting a usual Delphi study, Gordon and Pease point out that a Real-Time Delphi study can be implemented via a site on the
Internet or in any other network (e.g.
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alpha (i.e. the first) inputs of respondents, the real-time presentation of group results, and the tracking of progress over time should be integrated in a kind of administrator package to make the accomplishment of a Real-Time Delphi less difficult.
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Turoff, M., & Hiltz, S. (1995). Computer based Delphi processes. In M. Adler & E. Ziglio, E. (Eds.), Gazing into the Oracle: The Delphi Method and its
Application to Social Policy and Public Health (pp. 56-88). London: Jessica Kingsley
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answers of previous sessions and they can change all answers as desired within the given period of time. Besides their own answers they will see the ongoing – hence, real-time – responses of other participants, and with regard to
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directions and advancements of the Delphi method, including real-time formats. The authors provide a methodological toolbox for designing Delphi surveys including among others sentiment analyses of the field of psychology.
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Friedewald, M., von Oertzen, J., & Cuhls, K. (2007). European Perspectives on the Information Society (EPIS) (Delphi Report Deliverable 2.3.1). European Techno-Economic Policy Support Network (ETEPS
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A further advantage is the fact that the administrator of the study can set an arbitrary time frame in which participants have to log in and take part in the questionnaire. So, whenever the
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of the study is satisfied with the existing answers (i.e. in terms of quantity and quality), he can declare the study to be ended and close the online tool (i.e. "freeze" the responses).
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Gordon, T. J., & Pease, A. (2006). RT Delphi: An Efficient, “Round-less”, Almost Real Time Delphi Method. Journal of Technological Forecasting and Social Change,73(4), 321-333.
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Gordon and Pease define the advanced approach as an innovative way to conduct Delphi studies that do not involve sequential "rounds" and consequently lead to a higher degree of
431:(DARPA), which awarded a grant in 2004 to develop an approach to improve "speed and efficiency of collecting judgments in tactical situations". A small software company named
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to access single questions again. So, on the one hand, the procedure differs from a Conventional Delphi and, on the other hand, the iteration into single rounds is missing.
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Comparative studies of von der Gracht and colleagues have revealed that Real-time Delphi studies are comparable to the outcome of conventional round-based Delphi surveys.
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process. So, in comparison to face-to-face discussions, the Real-Time Delphi approach gives room for individuality and different cognitive abilities of the participants.
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of the participants, continuous operations and analysis of results (i.e. participants were able to see given answers of the other participants in real-time), as well as
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and improved understanding of global issues, opportunities, challenges, and strategies. More information on the project can be found on www.millennium-project.org
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others' comments. Additionally, the time frame between giving own answers and getting insights into others' responses is very short, which encourages stronger
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Zipfinger, S. (2007). Computer-Aided Delphi: An Experimental Study of Comparing Round-Based with Real-Time Implementation of the Method. Linz: Trauner Verlag.
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753:. Further illustrative examples in academic journals include cases from logistics, social business, professional services, retail, and automotive.
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Hartman, F. T., & Baldwin, A. (1995). Using Technology to Improve Delphi Method. Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, 9(4), 244-249.
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Turoff, M. (1972). Delphi Conferencing: Computer-Based Conferencing with Anonymity. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 3, 159-204.
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with the respective issue in question. Hartman and Baldwin argue that with the help of this procedure the validity of results is maximised.
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447:, principal consultant and CEO of Articulate Software, published the findings and methodology together with Theodore Gordon in 2006.
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Hartman and Baldwin discuss further advantages of the Real-Time Delphi approach: First, the number of experts participating in the
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and the real-time calculation and provision of group responses. Whereas Conventional Delphi studies are characterised by repeating
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Validating an Innovative Real-Time Delphi Approach – A methodological comparison between real-time and conventional Delphi studies
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Validating an Innovative Real-Time Delphi Approach – A methodological comparison between real-time and conventional Delphi studies
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degree of deviation with a different colour and by asking him to give further reasons for his deviation from the group opinion.
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differs from a Conventional Delphi study. The basic framework is to think of a Delphi study which is conducted in form of an
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Democrazia elettronica: Metodo Delphi e politiche pubbliche (Electronic Democracy: Delphi Method and Public Policy-Making)
505:(i.e. IQR). The core innovation, then, of Real-Time Delphi studies is the real-time calculation and provision of results.
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Gordon, T. J. (2007). Energy forecasts using a “Roundless” approach to running a Delphi study. Foresight, 9(2), 27-35.
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Preparing, conducting, and analyzing Delphi surveys: Cross-disciplinary practices, new directions, and advancements
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WFS Annual Summit 2011, which summarizes the lessons learned of 40 RTD studies across the two platforms.
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Heading Towards a Multimodal City of the Future? Multi-Stakeholder Scenarios for Urban Mobility
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participants". So, here it becomes clear that the Real-Time Delphi approach requires real-time
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Energy-Constrained and Low-Carbon Scenarios for the Transportation and Logistics Industry
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Another stream of projects based on real-time Delphi studies was conducted by the former
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Häder, M. (2002). Delphi-Befragungen. Ein Arbeitsbuch. Wiesbaden: Westdeutscher Verlag.
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Real-Time Delphi in practice — A comparative analysis of existing software-based tools
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Delphi-based strategic issue management: crafting consumer goods supply chain strategy
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Real-Time Delphi in practice — A comparative analysis of existing software-based tools
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which allows every individual to choose the sequence and speed to contribute to the
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The core methodological innovation of Real-Time Delphi studies are the absence of
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Heading Toward a More Social Future - Scenarios for Social Enterprises in Germany
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Detailed description of RTD platform and comparison of classical vs. RT Delphi:
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New Frontiers in Delphi Research: Experiences with Real-Time Delphi in Foresight
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Numerous examples for real-time Delphi applications can be found. Among them,
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Using the Delphi method to engage stakeholders: A comparison of two studies
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conducted by Glenn, Gordon, & Florescu in 2009 provides a context for
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International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management
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the group as a whole will be visualised in terms of median, average, and
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The Future of the Foresight Professionals: Results from a Delphi Study
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The basic idea of a real-time, therefore computer-based (usually
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Differences between conventional and real-time Delphi method
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Institute for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management
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540:In order to conduct a Real-Time Delphi study,
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843:(in Italian), Rome: Carocci Editore,
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463:The question arises how a Real-Time
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198:Future-proof
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1183:Forecasting
969:Publishers.
694:if you can.
632:facilitator
572:synchronous
489:qualitative
475:is called "
416:innovations
404:online tool
369:calculation
252:forecasting
246:Technology
156:Backcasting
133:Singularity
113:Moore's law
71:Mathematics
1177:Categories
1122:References
596:researcher
555:respondent
530:automation
445:Adam Pease
364:efficiency
281:Hype cycle
248:assessment
147:Techniques
408:anonymity
392:web-based
193:Foresight
943:MethodsX
700:May 2011
675:require
473:internet
118:Peak oil
91:Universe
39:Concepts
743:Germany
677:cleanup
386:History
81:Climate
62:Future
1161:. In:
1146:. In:
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181:Delphi
829:Net).
757:Notes
643:with
66:Earth
845:ISBN
487:and
250:and
76:Race
741:in
737:of
686:No
598:or
574:or
435:in
344:RTD
296:TRL
276:FTA
1179::
984:^
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749::
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342:(
328:e
321:t
314:v
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