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Papadopoulos argued that while traditional computing markets remain the dominant source of revenue through the late 2000s, a shift to hypergrowth markets will inevitably occur. When that shift occurs, he argued computing (but not computers) will become a utility, and differentiation in the IT market
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These are companies that do complex simulations that involve (for example) weather, stock markets or drug-design simulations. This is a generally elastic market because businesses frequently spend every "available" dollar budgeted for IT. A common anecdote claims that cutting the cost of computing
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vice president
Matthew Eastwood, "IDC believes that the IT market is in a period of hyper segmentation... This a class of customers that is Moore's law driven and as price performance gains continue, IDC believes that these organizations will accelerate their consumption of IT infrastructure.”
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growth, which typically remains under 10% for most countries annually. Given that Moore's Law continues to predict accurately the rate of computing transistor growth, which roughly translates into computing power doubling every two years, the
Redshift theory suggests that traditional computing
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According to the
Redshift theory, applications "redshift" when they grow dramatically faster than Moore's Law allows, growing quickly in their absolute number of systems. In these markets, customers are running out of datacenter real-estate, power and cooling infrastructure. According to
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Papadopoulos originally depicted traditional IT markets as green to represent their revenue base, but later changed them to “blueshift,” which occurs when a light source moves toward an observer, similar to what would happen during a contraction of the universe.
46:, categorized a series of high growth markets (redshifting) while predicting slower GDP-driven growth in traditional computing markets (blueshifting). Papadopoulos predicted the result will be a fundamental redesign of components comprising computing systems.
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refers to what happens when electromagnetic radiation, usually visible light, moves away from an observer. Papadopoulos chose this term to reflect growth markets because redshift helped cosmologists explain the expansion of the universe.
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Functionally, this means “Blueshifting” customers can satisfy computing requirement growth by swapping in faster processors without increasing the absolute number of computing systems.
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computing environments – where infrastructure deployments are measured by up to millions of servers, storage and networking equipment – are changing the way they approach IT.”
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machine available (these tracking Moore's law in this period) was not enough to cope with eBay's growth. The solution was to massively parallelise their system architecture.
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will be based upon a company's ability to deliver computing at massive scale, efficiently and with predictable service levels, much like electricity at that time.
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applications, have reached relative saturation in industrialized nations. Thereafter, proponents argued further market growth will closely follow
34:, which predicts the doubling of computing transistors (and therefore roughly computing power) every two years. The theory, proposed and named by
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by half causes customers in this segment to buy at least twice as much, because each marginal IT dollar spent contributes to business advantage.
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of content served to a PC, mobile phone or other device over a network, there must exist computing systems to send it over the network.
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and others. This segment has been enabled by widespread availability of high-bandwidth
Internet connections to consumers through a
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in late 2006. Papadopoulos later gave a full presentation on
Redshift to Sun's annual Analyst Summit in February 2007. The term
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These are companies that aggregate traditional computing applications and offer them as services, typically in the form of
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While various
Redshift proponents offer minor alterations on the original presentation, “Redshifting” generally includes:
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are over-served by Moore's Law, but companies that aggregate CRM functions and offer them as a service, such as
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365:"The eBay Architecture: Striking a balance between site stability, feature velocity, performance, and cost."
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218:. Industry analysts are also beginning to quantify Redshifting and Blueshifting markets. According to
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http://sun.feedroom.com/?skin=oneclip&fr_story=73d774789da2b024c111f8cfc7948af6d1577827&rf=bm
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researcher Jim
Hamilton, who both agree that computing is most efficiently generated in
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http://sun.feedroom.com/linking/?skin=oneclip&fr_story=FEEDROOM178646&hl=false
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markets will ultimately contract as a percentage of computing expenditures over time.
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Redshift theory suggests that traditional computing markets, such as those serving
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Key portions of
Papadopoulos' theory were first presented by Sun Microsystems CEO
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markets based on whether individual computing needs are over or under-served by
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340:"You've Already Had a Multicore Crisis and Just Didn't Realize It!"
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http://www.roughtype.com/archives/2007/03/showdown_in_the_1.php
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http://www.roughtype.com/archives/2007/02/the_future_of_c.php
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is a techno-economic theory suggesting hypersegmentation of
316:"Computers, Monitors & Technology Solutions | Dell USA"
114:. A simple way to understand this market is that for every
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Senior Vice
President Brad Anderson, “Businesses requiring
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162:. In 1999 eBay suffered a database crisis when a single
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http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=lcUS20623507
102:, multimedia, television over IP, online games like
82:traffic. This includes popular web-portals like
478:Microsoft's Jim Hamilton: paper and presentation
473:Nicholas Carr, "Showdown in the trailer park II"
284:"Hiding in Plain Sight, Google Seeks More Power"
468:Nicholas Carr, "The future of computing demand"
206:If computing is to be delivered as a utility,
367:SD Forum 2006 proceedings, November 29, 2006.
210:suggested Papadopoulos' vision compares with
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269:Greg Papadopoulos: Sun Analyst Summit 2007,
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174:Traditional computing markets (blueshifting)
158:A prime example of redshift was a crisis at
282:Markoff, John; Hansell, Saul (2006-06-14).
463:InformationWeek feature story on Redshift
50:Hypergrowth market segments (redshifting)
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142:. For example, companies that deploy
78:These are companies that drive heavy
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458:Official Greg Papadopoulos biography
198:Consequences and industry commentary
376:Rough Type (Nicholas Carr's blog):
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184:customer relationship management
150:, grow faster than Moore's Law.
404:Sun Blackbox Press Conference:
363:Randy Shoup and Dan Pritchett.
220:International Data Corporation
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180:enterprise resource planning
140:Software as a Service (SaaS)
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123:High performance computing
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36:New Enterprise Associates
18:Redshift (disambiguation)
418:"Expanding its universe"
227:History and nomenclature
134:*prise (or "Star-prise")
166:running on the fastest
483:ZDnet Blog on Redshift
188:gross domestic product
28:information technology
98:. It also includes
16:For other uses, see
523:Technology strategy
216:shipping containers
38:partner and former
288:The New York Times
528:Computing culture
508:Computer industry
233:Jonathan Schwartz
104:World of Warcraft
44:Greg Papadopoulos
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433:. Retrieved
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346:. 2007-08-30
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70:ÎŁBW (Sum-of-
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112:cable modem
32:Moore's law
492:Categories
435:2022-10-14
392:IDC Link:
350:2022-10-14
325:2022-10-14
301:2022-10-14
61:hyperscale
430:0013-0613
296:0362-4331
212:Microsoft
72:Bandwidth
237:Redshift
100:telecoms
80:Internet
24:Redshift
498:Adages
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84:Google
248:Notes
125:(HPC)
88:Yahoo
426:ISSN
380:and
320:Dell
292:ISSN
160:eBay
116:byte
94:and
57:Dell
42:CTO
182:or
168:Sun
144:CRM
110:or
108:DSL
96:MSN
92:AOL
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256:^
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