177:, published in 2010 (second edition 2015) and co-authored with Randy H. Pherson, provides a comprehensive taxonomy of structured analytic techniques (SATs) pertaining to eight categories: decomposition and visualization, idea generation, scenarios and indicators, hypothesis generation and testing, cause and effect, challenge analysis, conflict management and decision support. The book details 50 SATs (55 in the second edition) in step-by-step processes that contextualize each technique for use within the intelligence community and business community. The book goes beyond simply categorizing the various techniques by accentuating that SATs are processes that foster effective collaboration among analysts.
135:. Richards Heuer is well known for his analysis of the extremely controversial and disruptive case of Soviet KGB defector Yuri Nosenko, who was first judged to be part of a "master plot" for penetration of CIA but was later officially accepted as a legitimate defector. Heuer worked within the DI for four years, eventually retiring in 1979 after 28 years of service as the head of the methodology unit for the political analysis office. (Though retired from the DI in 1979, Heuer continued to work as a contractor on various projects until 1995.) He eventually received an M.A. in international relations from the
218:(DNI) could accomplish this by creating a new position to oversee the use of SATs in all NIC projects. Further, Heuer and Pherson suggest that the DNI create a "center for analytic tradecraft" responsible for testing all structured analytic techniques, developing new structured analytic techniques and managing feedback and lessons learned regarding all structured analytic techniques throughout the intelligence community.
264:
logical is unacceptable. Secondly, Heuer suggests that agencies expand funding for research on the role that cognitive processes play in decision making. With so much hanging on the failure of success of analytical judgments, he reasons, intelligence agencies need to stay abreast of new discoveries in this field. Thirdly, agencies should promote the continued development of new tools for assessing information.
385:
and how to evaluate their severity. Though this background information is not official government policy, the reference has been approved by the
Security Agency Executive Advisory Committee as a tool for assisting security investigators and managers. Appeals panels and lawyers have used it to deal with security clearance decisions, and it has also been proven useful to employee assistance counselors.
243:
In essence, one's perceptions are morphed by a variety of factors that are completely out of the control of the analyst. Heuer sees mental models as potentially good and bad for the analyst. On the positive side, they tend to simplify information for the sake of comprehension but they also obscure genuine clarity of interpretation.
278:"Analysis of competing hypotheses (ACH) is an analytic process that identifies a complete set of alternative hypotheses, systematically evaluates data that is consistent and inconsistent with each hypothesis, and rejects hypotheses that contain too much inconsistent data." ACH is an eight step process to enhance analysis:
127:. Helms, also a graduate of Williams College, was looking for recent graduates to hire at CIA. Heuer spent the next 24 years working with the Directorate of Operations before switching to the Directorate of Intelligence in 1975. His interest in intelligence analysis and "how we know" was rekindled by the case of
393:
This tool provides an all-in-one source for introducing new personnel to all the various intricacies of security. Additionally, it provides a wealth of information for security professionals seeking to prepare awareness articles or briefings. The software covers a variety of topics including (but not
362:
Heuer states that though he was at one point a believer in "the master plot" (deep and pervasive penetration of the CIA by the
Soviets) due to reasoning elaborated in the anomalies and inconsistencies approach and the motive approach, he came to discount this theory and to accept Yuri Nosenko as bona
263:
Heuer offers several recommendations to the intelligence community for improving intelligence analysis and avoiding consistent pitfalls. First, an environment that not only promotes but rewards critical thinking is essential. Failure to challenge the first possible hypothesis simply because it sounds
98:
The former provides a methodology for overcoming intelligence biases while the latter outlines how mental models and natural biases impede clear thinking and analysis. Throughout his career, he worked in collection operations, counterintelligence, intelligence analysis and personnel security. In 2010
242:
Mental models, or mind sets, are essentially the screens or lenses that people perceive information through. Even though every analyst sees the same piece of information, it is interpreted differently due to a variety of factors (past experience, education, and cultural values to name merely a few).
246:
Therefore, since all people observe the same information with inherent and different biases, Heuer believes an effective analysis system needs a few safeguards. It should: encourage products that clearly show their assumptions and chains of inferences; and it should emphasize procedures that expose
384:
This large database supplements the
Intelligence Community Adjudicative Guidelines which specify 13 categories of behavior that must be considered before granting a security clearance. Heuer's product provides far more detailed information about why these behaviors are a potential security concern
375:
During his 20 years as a consultant for the
Defense Personnel Security Research Center (PERSEREC), Richards Heuer developed two encyclopedic websites: the Adjudicative Desk Reference and Customizable Security Guide and the Automated Briefing System. Both are free to use and available in the public
233:
details his three fundamental points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply
341:
Heuer outlines five strategies for identifying truth in deception analysis cases, employing the
Nosenko case as a use case throughout in order to demonstrate how analysts on the case failed to conclude that Nosenko was legitimate. The five strategies presented in the article are:
185:
In light of the increasing need for interagency analyst collaboration, Heuer and
Pherson advocate SATs as "enablers" of collective and interdisciplinary intelligence products. The book is a response to problems that arise in small group collaborative situations such as
363:
fide after exercising the predictive test approach and the cost accounting approach. Heuer maintains that considering the master plot was not unwise as it was a theory that should have been discussed in light of the information available at the time.
394:
limited to): protecting classified information, foreign espionage threats and methods, and computer vulnerabilities. It is an updated version of the
Customizable Security Guide. In hard copy format, there are over 500 pages of material.
517:
750:
307:
Heuer originally developed ACH to be included as the core element in an interagency deception analysis course during the Reagan administration in 1984 concentrated on Soviet deception regarding arms deals. The
420:
366:
The conclusion of the five strategies approach is that, as demonstrated by the
Nosenko case, "all five approaches are useful for complete analysis" and that an analyst should not rely on one strategy alone.
151:(ISA) convention in 1977. His continuing interest in the field and its application to intelligence analysis led to several published works including papers, CIA training lectures and conference panels.
202:
for aggregating opinions in response to the identified problems. The book proposes SATs as not only a means for guiding collection and analysis, but also a means for guiding group interaction.
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338:. The article is an explanation of how and why the errors associated with the Nosenko case occurred, and has been used for teaching deception analysis to analysts.
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214:(NIC) needs to serve as the entity that sets the standards for the use of structured analytic techniques within the intelligence community. The
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Committee on
Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, Washington, DC, December 8, 2009.
407:: "For developing and teaching an innovative methodology for addressing complex and challenging problems facing the intelligence community."
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Litmus test approach: Comparing the information from an unknown or new source with the information from a reliable or credible source.
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429:(2008) International Association for Intelligence Education (IAFIE) Annual Award for Contribution to Intelligence Education
312:(PARC) in conjunction with Heuer developed the PARC ACH 2.0.5 software for use within the intelligence community in 2005.
255:; by delineating all available hypotheses and refuting the least likely ones, the most likely hypothesis becomes clearer.
211:
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and premature consensus. Heuer's previous insight into team dynamics advocates the use of analytic techniques such as
160:
124:
792:
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413:(1995) U.S. Congress Certificate of Special Congressional Recognition: "For outstanding service to the community."
309:
297:
Compare your personal conclusions about the relative likelihood of each hypothesis with the inconsistency scores
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Cost accounting approach: Analyzing the opportunity cost for the enemy and the cost of conducting deception.
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Anomalies and inconsistencies approach: Searching for inconsistencies from or deviations the norm.
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Predictive test approach: Developing a tentative hypothesis and then comprehensively testing it.
911:
Inside CIA's
Private World: Declassified Articles From the Agency's Internal Journal, 1955–1992
336:
Inside CIA's Private World, Declassified Articles from the Agency's Internal Journal, 1955–1992
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447:
518:"Improving Intelligence Analysis at CIA: Dick Heuer's Contribution to Intelligence Analysis"
112:
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higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.
140:
410:(1988) CIA Recognition: "For outstanding contribution to the literature of intelligence."
998:
115:
with a Bachelor of Arts in Philosophy. One year later, while a graduate student at the
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120:
320:
During the 1980s, Richards Heuer was deeply involved in analyzing the controversial
139:. Heuer discovered his interest in cognitive psychology through reading the work of
524:. Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency. Archived from
321:
144:
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334:, where it remained classified for eight years. In 1995, it was then published in
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and his studies in social science methodology while a master's student at the
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alternative points of view. What is required of analysts is "a commitment to
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774:
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Motive approach: Identifying whether or not there is a motive for deception.
936:
598:
800:
755:(2nd ed.). Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence,
416:(1996) CIA Recognition: "For work on countering denial and deception."
328:, was originally published in 1987 in the CIA's classified journal
872:
421:
International Association of Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysts
251:
their own working mental models." This is a key component of his
99:
he co-authored a book with Randolph (Randy) H. Pherson titled
84:
288:
Prepare a matrix to analyze the "diagnosticity" of evidence
873:"The Open Source Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Project"
822:"Analysis of Competing Hypotheses: An Eight Step Process"
595:
Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis
206:
Recommendations to the Director of National Intelligence
175:
Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis
167:
Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis
101:
Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis
593:
Heuer Jr., Richards J.; Pherson, Randolph H. (2015) .
475:"Richards Heuer Obituary - Pacific Grove, California"
87:veteran of 45 years and most known for his work on
62:
52:
40:
25:
18:
695:"Small Group Processes for Intelligence Analysis"
645:"The Evolution of Structured Analytic Techniques"
285:Make a list of significant evidence and arguments
423:(IALEIA) "Publication of the Year" Award for
8:
724:, Central Intelligence Agency, 28 July 2008.
1054:Analysts of the Central Intelligence Agency
15:
997:. Pherson Associates, LLC. Archived from
799:. Pherson Associates, LLC. Archived from
565:"Amazon.com's Richards J. Heuer Jr. Page"
537:This is the Introduction to Heuer's book
389:Online guide to security responsibilities
198:and Starbursting for idea generation and
181:Structured analytic techniques as process
469:
467:
83:(July 15, 1927 – August 21, 2018) was a
793:"ACH: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses"
438:
448:"Former CIA Officer Richards J. Heuer"
249:challenge, refine, and challenge again
111:Richards Heuer graduated in 1950 from
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909:. In Westerfield, H. Bradford (ed.).
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117:University of California in Berkeley
1049:Recipients of the Agency Seal Medal
752:Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
539:Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
425:Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
371:Contributions in personnel security
231:Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
223:Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
94:Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
210:Heuer and Pherson assert that the
14:
1044:Books about intelligence analysis
907:"Nosenko: Five Paths to Judgment"
216:Director of National Intelligence
149:International Studies Association
137:University of Southern California
133:University of Southern California
991:"Works of Richards J. Heuer, Jr"
597:(2nd ed.). Washington, DC:
282:Identify all possible hypotheses
274:Analysis of competing hypotheses
268:Analysis of competing hypotheses
253:analysis of competing hypotheses
89:analysis of competing hypotheses
905:Heuer Jr., Richards J. (1987).
693:Heuer Jr., Richards J. (2008).
643:Heuer Jr., Richards J. (2009).
326:Nosenko: Five Paths to Judgment
316:Involvement in the Nosenko case
123:recruited Heuer to work at the
155:Structured analytic techniques
1:
238:Mental models and perceptions
212:National Intelligence Council
749:Heuer, Richards J. (2001) .
672:National Academy of Sciences
757:Central Intelligence Agency
446:Gourley, Bob (2018-08-24).
380:Adjudicative desk reference
291:Drawn tentative conclusions
161:Problem structuring methods
125:Central Intelligence Agency
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271:
158:
831:. Pherson Associates, LLC
676:National Research Council
310:Palo Alto Research Center
877:competinghypotheses.org
840:A single-page document.
331:Studies in Intelligence
300:Report your conclusions
196:Nominal Group Technique
851:"ACH2.0 Download Page"
119:, future CIA Director
1039:Intelligence analysis
1010:Some papers by Heuer.
915:Yale University Press
405:Agency Seal Medallion
376:domain for download.
229:Heuer's seminal work
20:Richards J. Heuer Jr.
670:Presentation to the
516:Davis, Jack (1999).
57:Intelligence analyst
1024:20th-century births
722:Sherman Kent School
652:e-education.psu.edu
303:Identify indicators
200:prediction markets
192:group polarization
720:Prepared for the
324:case. His paper,
294:Refine the matrix
147:subsequent to an
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781:on May 29, 2012.
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225:and key concepts
169:and key concepts
113:Williams College
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259:Recommendations
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44:August 21, 2018
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36:July 15, 1927
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1003:. Retrieved
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483:. 2018-08-22
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129:Yuri Nosenko
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46:(2018-08-21)
1029:2018 deaths
995:pherson.org
937:j.ctt5vm5td
917:. pp.
829:pherson.org
797:pherson.org
702:pherson.org
63:Nationality
1018:Categories
1005:2018-09-10
966:"PERSEREC"
882:2018-09-10
870:See also:
865:2018-09-10
835:2018-09-10
807:2018-09-10
715:2018-09-10
665:2018-09-10
576:2017-06-15
570:Amazon.com
532:2018-08-10
487:2018-08-28
480:Legacy.com
457:2018-08-28
434:References
188:groupthink
159:See also:
107:Background
53:Occupation
32:1927-07-15
1034:Cognition
617:871688859
970:dhra.mil
945:31867339
855:parc.com
775:53813306
599:CQ Press
141:Kahneman
73:Richards
66:American
919:379–414
522:cia.gov
419:(2000)
403:(1987)
145:Tversky
943:
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925:
773:
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615:
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398:Awards
933:JSTOR
825:(PDF)
709:(PDF)
698:(PDF)
659:(PDF)
648:(PDF)
941:OCLC
923:ISBN
771:OCLC
761:ISBN
613:OCLC
603:ISBN
143:and
77:Dick
41:Died
26:Born
85:CIA
1020::
993:.
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