229:
year. To use the current 500 members only and create a historical equity line of the total return of the companies that met the criteria would be adding survivorship bias to the results. S&P maintains an index of healthy companies, removing companies that no longer meet their criteria as a representative of the large-cap U.S. stock market. Companies that had healthy growth on their way to inclusion in the S&P 500 would be counted as if they were in the index during that growth period, which they were not. Instead there may have been another company in the index that was losing market capitalization and was destined for the S&P 600 Small-cap Index that was later removed and would not be counted in the results. Using the actual membership of the index and applying entry and exit dates to gain the appropriate return during inclusion in the index would allow for a bias-free output.
368:, which Wald was a part of, examined the damage done to aircraft that had returned from missions and recommended adding armor to the areas that showed the least damage. The bullet holes in the returning aircraft represented areas where a bomber could take damage and still fly well enough to return safely to base. Therefore, Wald proposed that the Navy reinforce areas where the returning aircraft were unscathed, inferring that planes hit in those areas were the ones most likely to be lost. His work is considered seminal in the then nascent discipline of
184:-winning actors and actresses lived almost four years longer than their less successful peers. The statistical method used to derive this statistically significant difference, however, gave winners an unfair advantage, because it credited winners' years of life before winning toward survival subsequent to winning. When the data was reanalyzed using methods that avoided this immortal time bias, the survival advantage was closer to one year and was not statistically significant.
137:(i.e., showing no result) would not be reported, but "ventually, one experimenter remains whose subject has made high scores for six or seven successive sessions. Neither experimenter nor subject is aware of the other ninety-nine projects, and so both have a strong delusion that ESP is operating." He concludes: "The experimenter writes an enthusiastic paper, sends it to Rhine who publishes it in his magazine, and the readers are greatly impressed."
238:
344:
33:
502:
488:
334:
were undiscovered on social media, and just 1.1% were mainstream or mega-sized. This creates a false public perception that anyone can achieve great things if they have the ability and make the effort. The overwhelming majority of failures are not visible to the public eye, and only those who survive
228:
Additionally, in the financial field survivorship bias is the use of a current index membership set rather than using the actual constituent changes over time. Consider a backtest to 1990 to find the average performance (total return) of S&P 500 members who have paid dividends within the previous
125:
naïveté, but rather as a result of subtly disregarding poorly performing subjects. He said that, even without trickery of any kind, if a large enough sample were taken, there would always be a certain number of subjects who demonstrated improbable success. To illustrate this, he speculates about what
456:
they claim a success rate significantly higher than that of competing services while generally not disclosing that the rate is calculated with respect to a viewership subset of individuals who possess traits that increase their likelihood of finding and maintaining relationships and lack traits that
206:
In 1996, Elton, Gruber, and Blake showed that survivorship bias is larger in the small-fund sector than in large mutual funds (presumably because small funds have a high probability of folding). They estimate the size of the bias across the U.S. mutual fund industry as 0.9% per annum, where the bias
67:
Another kind of survivorship bias would involve thinking that an incident happened in a particular way because the only people who were involved in the incident who can speak about it are those who survived it. Even if one knew that some people are dead, they would not have their voice to add to the
436:
these differences result from the company's deliberate "pre-screening" of prospective customers to ensure that only customers with traits increasing their likelihood of success are allowed to purchase the product or service, especially when the company's selection procedures or evaluation standards
347:
This hypothetical pattern of damage of surviving aircraft shows locations where they can sustain damage and still return home. If the aircraft was reinforced in the indicated areas, this would be a result of survivorship bias because crucial data from fatally damaged planes was being ignored; those
326:
who pursues their dreams and beats the odds. There is much less focus on the many people that may be similarly skilled and determined, but fail to ever find success because of factors beyond their control or other (seemingly) random events. There is also a tendency to overlook resources and events
197:
In finance, survivorship bias is the tendency for failed companies to be excluded from performance studies because they no longer exist. It often causes the results of studies to skew higher because only companies that were successful enough to survive until the end of the period are included. For
391:
newspaper column proposed that another possible explanation for this phenomenon would be survivorship bias. Cats that die in falls are less likely to be brought to a veterinarian than injured cats, and thus many of the cats killed in falls from higher buildings are not reported in studies of the
297:
was asked concerning paintings of those who had escaped shipwreck: "Look, you who think the gods have no care of human things, what do you say to so many persons preserved from death by their especial favour?", to which
Diagoras replied: "Why, I say that their pictures are not here who were cast
202:
company's selection of funds today will include only those that are successful now. Many losing funds are closed and merged into other funds to hide poor performance. In theory, 70% of extant funds could truthfully claim to have performance in the first quartile of their peers, if the peer group
59:
that can lead to overly optimistic beliefs because multiple failures are overlooked, such as when companies that no longer exist are excluded from analyses of financial performance. It can also lead to the false belief that the successes in a group have some special property, rather than just
313:
Just as new buildings are being built every day and older structures are constantly torn down, the story of most civil and urban architecture involves a process of constant renewal, renovation, and revolution. Only the most beautiful, useful, and structurally sound buildings survive from one
314:
generation to the next. This creates a selection effect where the ugliest and weakest buildings of history have been eradicated (disappearing from public view, leaving the visible impression that all earlier buildings were more beautiful and better built).
262:
that failed. Journalist and author David McRaney observes that the "advice business is a monopoly run by survivors. When something becomes a non-survivor, it is either completely eliminated, or whatever voice it has is muted to zero". Alec Liu wrote in
380:
In a study performed in 1987, it was reported that cats who fall from less than six stories, and are still alive, have greater injuries than cats who fall from higher than six stories. It has been proposed that this might happen because cats reach
898:
In this paper the researchers eliminate survivorship bias by following the returns on all funds extant at the end of 1976. They show that other researchers have drawn spurious conclusions by failing to include the bias in regressions on fund
36:
A popular visual representation of survivorship bias. This diagram shows where returning WW2-era planes were hit. Suggesting that the red clusters should be reinforced exemplifies survivorship bias, as only the planes that didn't crash were
972:
474:
charge a fee for administration of its pre-screening test; thus its prospective customers face no "downside risk" other than wasting their time, expending the effort involved in completing the pre-screening process, and suffering
108:" because they had failed at an earlier testing stage. Had he done this, he might have seen that from the large sample, one or two individuals would probably achieve—purely by chance—the track record of success he observed.
428:
issues when the success rate advertised for a product or service is measured by reference to a population whose makeup differs from that of the target audience for the advertisement. This is especially important when
305:, which were well organised and still have accessible archives for historians to work from, are studied more than smaller charitable organisations, even though these may have done a great deal of work.
100:. A major criticism that surfaced against his calculations was the possibility of unconscious survivorship bias in subject selections. He was accused of failing to take into account the large effective
1215:
301:
Susan Mumm has described how survival bias leads historians to study organisations that are still in existence more than those that have closed. This means large, successful organisations such as the
1391:
130:
read Rhine's work and decided to make their own tests; he said that survivor bias would winnow out the typically failed experiments, while encouraging the lucky successes to continue testing.
968:
444:
the company offering the product or service charges a fee, especially one that is non-refundable or not disclosed in the advertisement, for the privilege of attempting to become a customer.
1102:
1003:
945:
148:
results by chance, and these are the experiments submitted for publication. Additionally, papers showing positive results may be more appealing to editors. This problem is known as
385:
after righting themselves at about five stories, and after this point they relax, leading to less severe injuries in cats who have fallen from six or more stories. In 1996,
2285:
52:
of concentrating on entities that passed a selection process while overlooking those that did not. This can lead to incorrect conclusions because of incomplete data.
2175:
783:
Sylvestre, Marie-Pierre; Huszti, Ella; Hanley, James A. (5 September 2006). "Do Oscar
Winners Live Longer than Less Successful Peers? A Reanalysis of the Evidence".
1491:
322:
Whether it be movie stars, athletes, musicians, or CEOs of multibillion-dollar corporations who dropped out of school, popular media often tells the story of the
160:
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the advertisement either fails to disclose the relevant differences between the two populations, or describes them in insufficient detail; and
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61:
937:
1245:
1084:
Women and
Philanthropic Cultures, in Women, Gender and Religious Cultures in Britain, 1800-1940, Eds Sue Morgan and Jacqueline deVries
156:. To combat this, some editors now specifically call for the submission of "negative" scientific findings, where "nothing happened".
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1057:
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1577:
2170:
1980:
1026:
2804:
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2349:
1367:
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2099:
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have described how advice about commercial success distorts perceptions of it by ignoring all of the businesses and college
452:
fail a truth in advertising test because they fail the first two prongs and pass the third, when all three must be passed:
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1985:
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910:
273:, there's thousands of also-rans, who had parties no one ever attended, obsolete before we ever knew they existed."
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2444:
2093:
1619:
590:
361:
1725:
740:
Redelmeier, Donald A.; Singh, Sheldon M. (15 May 2001). "Survival in
Academy Award–Winning Actors and Actresses".
2819:
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2223:
1947:
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578:
145:
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710:
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2329:
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1807:
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took survivorship bias into his calculations when considering how to minimize bomber losses to enemy fire. The
85:
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2012:
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believed he had identified the few individuals from hundreds of potential subjects who had powers of
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1937:
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1812:
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1797:
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617:"Deviations: A Skeptical Investigation of Edgar Cayce's Association for Research and Enlightenment"
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572:
516:
365:
250:
969:"The Myth of the Successful College Dropout: Why It Could Make Millions of Young Americans Poorer"
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2017:
2002:
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Mangel, Marc; Samaniego, Francisco (June 1984). "Abraham Wald's work on aircraft survivability".
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designed to reject prospective customers who lack the former traits or possess the latter ones,
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1997:
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1415:"History is written by the victors: the effect of the push of the past on the fossil record"
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159:
Survivorship bias is one of the research issues brought up in the provocative 2005 paper "
134:
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1992:
1942:
1887:
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1822:
1777:
1742:
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686:
657:
563: – Statistical method that summarizes and or integrates data from multiple sources
554:
528:
118:
77:
56:
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2713:
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2007:
1970:
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893:
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89:
49:
820:
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1125:
548:
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283:
259:
1364:
1172:
Wallis, W. Allen (1980). "The
Statistical Research Group, 1942-1945: Rejoinder".
1151:
676:
404:
that survive a long time are subject to various survivorship biases such as the "
2749:
2603:
2476:
2466:
2022:
1792:
1782:
1772:
1668:
343:
212:"Bias is defined as average α for surviving funds minus average α for all funds"
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101:
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the company deliberately selects for these traits by administering a lengthy
335:
the selective pressures of their competitive environment are seen regularly.
17:
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141:
97:
1451:
884:
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769:
695:
121:
explained that the experimenters had made such obvious mistakes not out of
1384:"Do cats always land unharmed on their feet, no matter how far they fall?"
1325:
2645:
2187:
2072:
662:
461:
449:
105:
174:
occurred in a study by
Redelmeier and Singh, which was published in the
2650:
1288:
1193:
1147:
A Method of
Estimating Plane Vulnerability Based on Damage of Survivors
1433:
581: – Fallacy of assumption of causality based on sequence of events
401:
327:
that helped enable such success, that those who failed didn't have.
1280:
1185:
342:
236:
31:
286:
called the data obscured by survivorship bias "silent evidence".
1586:
1312:
Whitney, WO; Mehlhaff, CJ (1987). "High-rise syndrome in cats".
223:. This is the standard measure of mutual fund out-performance).
2267:
1559:
1238:"AMS :: Feature Column :: The Legend of Abraham Wald"
835:"How to think about diversification - Page 3 - Bogleheads.org"
104:; that is, all the subjects he rejected as not being "strong
1555:
448:
For example, the advertisements of online dating service
1027:"What Happened to the Facebook Killer? It's Complicated"
1126:"91 Percent of All Artists Are Completely Undiscovered"
643:, Martin Gardner, p. 303, 1957, Dover Publications Inc.
1314:
Journal of the
American Veterinary Medical Association
519: – Hypothesis about sapient life and the universe
1208:"Bullet Holes & Bias: The Story of Abraham Wald"
938:"High-Tech Dropouts Misinterpret Steve Jobs' Advice"
241:
Framed quotes of successful CEOs in a public library
2727:
2689:
2638:
2588:
2562:
2524:
2494:
2485:
2411:
2358:
2305:
2216:
2081:
1956:
1593:
1149:. Statistical Research Group, Columbia University.
1044:
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly
Improbable
569: – Statistical interpretation with many tests
525: – Bias towards recently acquired information
167:papers contain results that cannot be replicated.
1048:(2nd ed.). New York: Random House. p.
658:"Why Most Published Research Findings Are False"
551: – Theorized increase of longevity with age
163:", which shows that a large number of published
1269:Journal of the American Statistical Association
1174:Journal of the American Statistical Association
866:"Survivorship Bias and Mutual Fund Performance"
651:
649:
209:
1482:"They Met Online, but Definitely Didn't Click"
711:"Why it's time to publish research "failures""
161:Why Most Published Research Findings Are False
133:He postulated that experiments confirming the
2279:
1571:
8:
1099:"How Survivorship Bias Tricks Entrepreneurs"
996:"How Survivorship Bias Tricks Entrepreneurs"
545: – Ableist portrayal of disabled people
330:For example, a 2013 study found that 91% of
1141:
1139:
298:away, who are by much the greater number."
2491:
2286:
2272:
2264:
2234:Heuristics in judgment and decision-making
1578:
1564:
1556:
408:", generating the illusion that clades in
126:would happen if one hundred professors of
88:(ESP). His calculations were based on the
1441:
883:
685:
675:
641:Fads and Fallacies in the Name of Science
114:Fads and Fallacies in the Name of Science
2578:Preventable fraction among the unexposed
2574:Attributable fraction for the population
911:"How the Survivor Bias Distorts Reality"
754:10.7326/0003-4819-134-10-200105150-00009
2582:Preventable fraction for the population
2570:Attributable fraction among the exposed
797:10.7326/0003-4819-145-5-200609050-00009
604:
1544:: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (
1537:
531: – Fallacy of incomplete evidence
412:tend to originate with a high rate of
1346:from the original on 21 February 2015
1152:CRC 432 — reprint from July 1980
539: – Book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
457:pose obstacles to their doing so, and
219:is the risk-adjusted return over the
27:Logical error, form of selection bias
7:
2745:Correlation does not imply causation
2661:Animal testing on non-human primates
845:from the original on 29 October 2020
348:hit in other places did not survive.
144:study a phenomenon, some will find
92:of these few subjects guessing the
1461:from the original on 28 April 2019
1394:from the original on 16 April 2012
1218:from the original on 16 April 2020
917:from the original on 29 April 2019
909:Michael Shermer (19 August 2014).
557: – Sampling bias in astronomy
25:
1413:Budd, G. E.; Mann, R. P. (2018).
1097:Karen E. Klein (11 August 2014).
1072:Cicero, De Natura Deor., iii. 37.
1006:from the original on 7 March 2016
994:Karen E. Klein (11 August 2014).
975:from the original on 9 April 2019
948:from the original on 2 April 2019
936:Carmine Gallo (7 December 2012).
400:Large groups of organisms called
203:includes funds that have closed.
1526:from the original on 5 July 2019
1494:from the original on 16 May 2017
1248:from the original on 27 May 2020
1105:from the original on 23 May 2017
967:Robert J Zimmer (1 March 2013).
721:from the original on 2 June 2021
500:
486:
111:Writing about the Rhine case in
68:conversation, making it biased.
1040:Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2010).
55:Survivorship bias is a form of
2628:Pre- and post-test probability
2350:Patient and public involvement
416:that then slows through time.
72:As a general experimental flaw
62:correlation "proves" causality
1:
1242:American Mathematical Society
1029:. Motherboard - Tech by Vice.
864:Elton; Gruber; Blake (1996).
309:Architecture and construction
2755:Sex as a biological variable
1294:Reprint on author's web site
1162:. Center for Naval Analyses.
1124:Ulloa, Nina (19 June 2024).
791:(5): 361–3, discussion 392.
709:Goodchild van Hilten, Lucy.
677:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124
656:Ioannidis, J. P. A. (2005).
575: – Sociological concept
567:Multiple comparisons problem
424:Survivorship bias can raise
207:is defined and measured as:
180:and purported to show that
2719:Intention-to-treat analysis
2691:Analysis of clinical trials
2620:Specificity and sensitivity
2374:Randomized controlled trial
2100:DĂ©formation professionnelle
1480:Farhi, Paul (13 May 2007).
1340:"Highrise Syndrome in Cats"
1025:Alec Liu (3 October 2012).
871:Review of Financial Studies
785:Annals of Internal Medicine
742:Annals of Internal Medicine
593: – Statistical fallacy
587: – Rule in mathematics
177:Annals of Internal Medicine
2841:
2094:Basking in reflected glory
591:Texas sharpshooter fallacy
362:Statistical Research Group
2763:
2728:Interpretation of results
2461:Nested case–control study
2242:
2224:Cognitive bias mitigation
579:Post hoc ergo propter hoc
318:Highly competitive career
146:statistically significant
2330:Academic clinical trials
1808:Illusion of transparency
86:extra-sensory perception
2548:Relative risk reduction
2396:Adaptive clinical trial
2340:Evidence-based medicine
2323:Adaptive clinical trial
1145:Wald, Abraham. (1943).
913:. Scientific American.
254:and Larry Smith of the
2536:Number needed to treat
1101:. Bloomberg Business.
523:Availability heuristic
349:
256:University of Waterloo
242:
226:
170:One famous example of
38:
2805:Sampling (statistics)
2540:Number needed to harm
2427:Cross-sectional study
2379:Scientific experiment
2335:Clinical study design
2176:Arab–Israeli conflict
1903:Social influence bias
1848:Out-group homogeneity
462:pre-screening process
346:
324:determined individual
240:
193:Finance and economics
150:positive results bias
140:If sufficiently many
35:
2506:Cumulative incidence
1818:Mere-exposure effect
1748:Extrinsic incentives
1694:Selective perception
1086:. London: Routledge.
1082:Mumm, Susan (2010).
885:10.1093/rfs/9.4.1097
536:Fooled by Randomness
426:truth-in-advertising
396:Studies of evolution
370:operational research
2413:Observational study
2345:Real world evidence
2299:experimental design
2043:Social desirability
1938:von Restorff effect
1813:Mean world syndrome
1788:Hostile attribution
585:Selection principle
573:Myth of meritocracy
517:Anthropic principle
366:Columbia University
356:, the statistician
282:, financial writer
251:Scientific American
96:shown to a partner
2810:Informal fallacies
2699:Risk–benefit ratio
2666:First-in-man study
2616:Case fatality rate
2457:Case–control study
2431:Longitudinal study
1958:Statistical biases
1736:Curse of knowledge
1370:2007-07-12 at the
1299:2019-08-17 at the
1212:mcdreeamie-musings
1157:2019-07-13 at the
1130:Digital Music News
839:www.bogleheads.org
350:
243:
172:immortal time bias
102:size of his sample
82:Joseph Banks Rhine
60:coincidence as in
39:
2792:
2791:
2740:Survivorship bias
2704:Systematic review
2671:Multicenter trial
2634:
2633:
2624:Likelihood-ratios
2596:Clinical endpoint
2564:Population impact
2518:Period prevalence
2295:Clinical research
2261:
2260:
1898:Social comparison
1679:Choice-supportive
1434:10.1111/evo.13593
1428:(11): 2276–2291.
1388:The Straight Dope
1214:. 23 April 2019.
615:(3 August 2011).
508:Philosophy portal
494:Psychology portal
470:the company does
388:The Straight Dope
383:terminal velocity
303:Women's Institute
295:Diagoras of Melos
42:Survivorship bias
16:(Redirected from
2832:
2820:Cognitive biases
2639:Trial/test types
2514:Point prevalence
2492:
2435:Ecological study
2418:EBM II-2 to II-3
2389:Open-label trial
2384:Blind experiment
2360:Controlled study
2288:
2281:
2274:
2265:
2058:Systematic error
2013:Omitted-variable
1928:Trait ascription
1768:Frog pond effect
1596:Cognitive biases
1580:
1573:
1566:
1557:
1550:
1549:
1543:
1535:
1533:
1531:
1525:
1518:
1510:
1504:
1503:
1501:
1499:
1477:
1471:
1470:
1468:
1466:
1460:
1445:
1419:
1410:
1404:
1403:
1401:
1399:
1390:. 19 July 1996.
1380:
1374:
1362:
1356:
1355:
1353:
1351:
1336:
1330:
1329:
1320:(11): 1399–403.
1309:
1303:
1292:
1275:(386): 259–267.
1264:
1258:
1257:
1255:
1253:
1234:
1228:
1227:
1225:
1223:
1204:
1198:
1197:
1180:(370): 334–335.
1169:
1163:
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1134:
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1121:
1115:
1114:
1112:
1110:
1094:
1088:
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1037:
1031:
1030:
1022:
1016:
1015:
1013:
1011:
991:
985:
984:
982:
980:
971:. The Atlantic.
964:
958:
957:
955:
953:
933:
927:
926:
924:
922:
906:
900:
897:
887:
878:(4): 1097–1120.
861:
855:
854:
852:
850:
831:
825:
824:
780:
774:
773:
737:
731:
730:
728:
726:
715:Elsevier Connect
706:
700:
699:
689:
679:
653:
644:
638:
632:
631:
629:
627:
613:Shermer, Michael
609:
543:Inspiration porn
510:
505:
504:
503:
496:
491:
490:
489:
406:push of the past
269:that "for every
165:medical research
154:publication bias
21:
2840:
2839:
2835:
2834:
2833:
2831:
2830:
2829:
2795:
2794:
2793:
2788:
2759:
2723:
2685:
2630:
2584:
2558:
2532:Risk difference
2520:
2481:
2415:
2407:
2362:
2354:
2318:Trial protocols
2301:
2292:
2262:
2257:
2238:
2212:
2077:
1952:
1933:Turkey illusion
1701:Compassion fade
1598:
1589:
1584:
1554:
1553:
1536:
1529:
1527:
1523:
1516:
1514:"Archived copy"
1512:
1511:
1507:
1497:
1495:
1487:Washington Post
1479:
1478:
1474:
1464:
1462:
1458:
1417:
1412:
1411:
1407:
1397:
1395:
1382:
1381:
1377:
1372:Wayback Machine
1363:
1359:
1349:
1347:
1338:
1337:
1333:
1311:
1310:
1306:
1301:Wayback Machine
1281:10.2307/2288257
1266:
1265:
1261:
1251:
1249:
1236:
1235:
1231:
1221:
1219:
1206:
1205:
1201:
1186:10.2307/2287454
1171:
1170:
1166:
1159:Wayback Machine
1144:
1137:
1123:
1122:
1118:
1108:
1106:
1096:
1095:
1091:
1081:
1080:
1076:
1071:
1067:
1060:
1039:
1038:
1034:
1024:
1023:
1019:
1009:
1007:
993:
992:
988:
978:
976:
966:
965:
961:
951:
949:
935:
934:
930:
920:
918:
908:
907:
903:
863:
862:
858:
848:
846:
833:
832:
828:
782:
781:
777:
739:
738:
734:
724:
722:
708:
707:
703:
655:
654:
647:
639:
635:
625:
623:
611:
610:
606:
601:
596:
506:
501:
499:
492:
487:
485:
482:
475:disappointment.
422:
414:diversification
398:
378:
341:
320:
311:
292:
271:Mark Zuckerberg
246:Michael Shermer
235:
225:
214:
213:
195:
190:
135:null hypothesis
74:
28:
23:
22:
15:
12:
11:
5:
2838:
2836:
2828:
2827:
2822:
2817:
2812:
2807:
2797:
2796:
2790:
2789:
2787:
2786:
2783:List of topics
2779:
2772:
2764:
2761:
2760:
2758:
2757:
2752:
2747:
2742:
2737:
2735:Selection bias
2731:
2729:
2725:
2724:
2722:
2721:
2716:
2711:
2706:
2701:
2695:
2693:
2687:
2686:
2684:
2683:
2678:
2673:
2668:
2663:
2658:
2656:Animal testing
2653:
2648:
2642:
2640:
2636:
2635:
2632:
2631:
2608:Mortality rate
2594:
2592:
2586:
2585:
2568:
2566:
2560:
2559:
2530:
2528:
2522:
2521:
2500:
2498:
2489:
2483:
2482:
2480:
2479:
2474:
2469:
2464:
2454:
2453:
2452:
2447:
2437:
2423:
2421:
2409:
2408:
2406:
2405:
2404:
2403:
2401:Platform trial
2393:
2392:
2391:
2386:
2381:
2370:
2368:
2356:
2355:
2353:
2352:
2347:
2342:
2337:
2332:
2327:
2326:
2325:
2320:
2313:Clinical trial
2309:
2307:
2303:
2302:
2293:
2291:
2290:
2283:
2276:
2268:
2259:
2258:
2256:
2255:
2250:
2243:
2240:
2239:
2237:
2236:
2231:
2226:
2220:
2218:
2217:Bias reduction
2214:
2213:
2211:
2210:
2205:
2200:
2195:
2193:Political bias
2190:
2185:
2184:
2183:
2178:
2173:
2168:
2163:
2158:
2153:
2148:
2138:
2133:
2128:
2123:
2121:Infrastructure
2118:
2113:
2108:
2103:
2096:
2091:
2085:
2083:
2079:
2078:
2076:
2075:
2070:
2065:
2060:
2055:
2050:
2045:
2040:
2038:Self-selection
2035:
2030:
2025:
2020:
2015:
2010:
2005:
2000:
1995:
1990:
1989:
1988:
1978:
1973:
1968:
1962:
1960:
1954:
1953:
1951:
1950:
1945:
1940:
1935:
1930:
1925:
1920:
1915:
1910:
1905:
1900:
1895:
1890:
1885:
1880:
1875:
1873:Pro-innovation
1870:
1865:
1860:
1858:Overton window
1855:
1850:
1845:
1840:
1835:
1830:
1825:
1820:
1815:
1810:
1805:
1800:
1795:
1790:
1785:
1780:
1775:
1770:
1765:
1760:
1755:
1750:
1745:
1740:
1739:
1738:
1728:
1726:Dunning–Kruger
1723:
1718:
1713:
1708:
1703:
1698:
1697:
1696:
1686:
1681:
1676:
1671:
1666:
1665:
1664:
1654:
1649:
1644:
1643:
1642:
1640:Correspondence
1637:
1635:Actor–observer
1627:
1622:
1617:
1612:
1607:
1601:
1599:
1594:
1591:
1590:
1585:
1583:
1582:
1575:
1568:
1560:
1552:
1551:
1505:
1472:
1405:
1375:
1357:
1331:
1304:
1259:
1229:
1199:
1164:
1135:
1116:
1089:
1074:
1065:
1058:
1032:
1017:
986:
959:
928:
901:
856:
826:
775:
748:(10): 955–62.
732:
701:
645:
633:
603:
602:
600:
597:
595:
594:
588:
582:
576:
570:
564:
558:
555:Malmquist bias
552:
546:
540:
532:
529:Cherry picking
526:
520:
513:
512:
511:
497:
481:
478:
477:
476:
468:
458:
446:
445:
442:
434:
421:
418:
397:
394:
377:
374:
340:
337:
319:
316:
310:
307:
291:
288:
279:The Black Swan
234:
231:
210:
194:
191:
189:
186:
119:Martin Gardner
78:parapsychology
73:
70:
57:selection bias
26:
24:
14:
13:
10:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
2837:
2826:
2823:
2821:
2818:
2816:
2813:
2811:
2808:
2806:
2803:
2802:
2800:
2785:
2784:
2780:
2778:
2777:
2773:
2771:
2770:
2766:
2765:
2762:
2756:
2753:
2751:
2748:
2746:
2743:
2741:
2738:
2736:
2733:
2732:
2730:
2726:
2720:
2717:
2715:
2714:Meta-analysis
2712:
2710:
2707:
2705:
2702:
2700:
2697:
2696:
2694:
2692:
2688:
2682:
2681:Vaccine trial
2679:
2677:
2676:Seeding trial
2674:
2672:
2669:
2667:
2664:
2662:
2659:
2657:
2654:
2652:
2649:
2647:
2644:
2643:
2641:
2637:
2629:
2625:
2621:
2617:
2613:
2609:
2605:
2601:
2597:
2593:
2591:
2587:
2583:
2579:
2575:
2571:
2567:
2565:
2561:
2557:
2553:
2549:
2545:
2541:
2537:
2533:
2529:
2527:
2523:
2519:
2515:
2511:
2507:
2503:
2499:
2497:
2493:
2490:
2488:
2484:
2478:
2475:
2473:
2470:
2468:
2465:
2462:
2458:
2455:
2451:
2448:
2446:
2445:Retrospective
2443:
2442:
2441:
2438:
2436:
2432:
2428:
2425:
2424:
2422:
2419:
2414:
2410:
2402:
2399:
2398:
2397:
2394:
2390:
2387:
2385:
2382:
2380:
2377:
2376:
2375:
2372:
2371:
2369:
2366:
2365:EBM I to II-1
2361:
2357:
2351:
2348:
2346:
2343:
2341:
2338:
2336:
2333:
2331:
2328:
2324:
2321:
2319:
2316:
2315:
2314:
2311:
2310:
2308:
2304:
2300:
2296:
2289:
2284:
2282:
2277:
2275:
2270:
2269:
2266:
2254:
2251:
2249:
2245:
2244:
2241:
2235:
2232:
2230:
2227:
2225:
2222:
2221:
2219:
2215:
2209:
2206:
2204:
2201:
2199:
2196:
2194:
2191:
2189:
2186:
2182:
2179:
2177:
2174:
2172:
2171:United States
2169:
2167:
2164:
2162:
2159:
2157:
2154:
2152:
2149:
2147:
2146:False balance
2144:
2143:
2142:
2139:
2137:
2134:
2132:
2129:
2127:
2124:
2122:
2119:
2117:
2114:
2112:
2109:
2107:
2104:
2102:
2101:
2097:
2095:
2092:
2090:
2087:
2086:
2084:
2080:
2074:
2071:
2069:
2066:
2064:
2061:
2059:
2056:
2054:
2051:
2049:
2046:
2044:
2041:
2039:
2036:
2034:
2031:
2029:
2026:
2024:
2021:
2019:
2018:Participation
2016:
2014:
2011:
2009:
2006:
2004:
2001:
1999:
1996:
1994:
1991:
1987:
1986:Psychological
1984:
1983:
1982:
1979:
1977:
1974:
1972:
1969:
1967:
1964:
1963:
1961:
1959:
1955:
1949:
1946:
1944:
1941:
1939:
1936:
1934:
1931:
1929:
1926:
1924:
1921:
1919:
1916:
1914:
1911:
1909:
1906:
1904:
1901:
1899:
1896:
1894:
1891:
1889:
1886:
1884:
1881:
1879:
1876:
1874:
1871:
1869:
1866:
1864:
1861:
1859:
1856:
1854:
1851:
1849:
1846:
1844:
1841:
1839:
1836:
1834:
1831:
1829:
1826:
1824:
1821:
1819:
1816:
1814:
1811:
1809:
1806:
1804:
1801:
1799:
1796:
1794:
1791:
1789:
1786:
1784:
1781:
1779:
1776:
1774:
1771:
1769:
1766:
1764:
1761:
1759:
1756:
1754:
1753:Fading affect
1751:
1749:
1746:
1744:
1741:
1737:
1734:
1733:
1732:
1729:
1727:
1724:
1722:
1719:
1717:
1714:
1712:
1709:
1707:
1704:
1702:
1699:
1695:
1692:
1691:
1690:
1687:
1685:
1682:
1680:
1677:
1675:
1672:
1670:
1667:
1663:
1660:
1659:
1658:
1655:
1653:
1650:
1648:
1645:
1641:
1638:
1636:
1633:
1632:
1631:
1628:
1626:
1623:
1621:
1618:
1616:
1613:
1611:
1608:
1606:
1603:
1602:
1600:
1597:
1592:
1588:
1581:
1576:
1574:
1569:
1567:
1562:
1561:
1558:
1547:
1541:
1522:
1515:
1509:
1506:
1493:
1489:
1488:
1483:
1476:
1473:
1457:
1453:
1449:
1444:
1439:
1435:
1431:
1427:
1423:
1416:
1409:
1406:
1393:
1389:
1385:
1379:
1376:
1373:
1369:
1366:
1361:
1358:
1345:
1341:
1335:
1332:
1327:
1323:
1319:
1315:
1308:
1305:
1302:
1298:
1295:
1290:
1286:
1282:
1278:
1274:
1270:
1263:
1260:
1247:
1243:
1239:
1233:
1230:
1217:
1213:
1209:
1203:
1200:
1195:
1191:
1187:
1183:
1179:
1175:
1168:
1165:
1161:
1160:
1156:
1153:
1148:
1142:
1140:
1136:
1131:
1127:
1120:
1117:
1104:
1100:
1093:
1090:
1085:
1078:
1075:
1069:
1066:
1061:
1059:9780679604181
1055:
1051:
1046:
1045:
1036:
1033:
1028:
1021:
1018:
1005:
1001:
997:
990:
987:
974:
970:
963:
960:
947:
943:
939:
932:
929:
916:
912:
905:
902:
895:
891:
886:
881:
877:
873:
872:
867:
860:
857:
844:
840:
836:
830:
827:
822:
818:
814:
810:
806:
802:
798:
794:
790:
786:
779:
776:
771:
767:
763:
759:
755:
751:
747:
743:
736:
733:
720:
716:
712:
705:
702:
697:
693:
688:
683:
678:
673:
669:
665:
664:
659:
652:
650:
646:
642:
637:
634:
622:
618:
614:
608:
605:
598:
592:
589:
586:
583:
580:
577:
574:
571:
568:
565:
562:
561:Meta-analysis
559:
556:
553:
550:
547:
544:
541:
538:
537:
533:
530:
527:
524:
521:
518:
515:
514:
509:
498:
495:
484:
479:
473:
469:
467:
463:
459:
455:
454:
453:
451:
443:
440:
435:
432:
431:
430:
427:
419:
417:
415:
411:
407:
403:
395:
393:
390:
389:
384:
375:
373:
371:
367:
363:
359:
355:
345:
338:
336:
333:
328:
325:
317:
315:
308:
306:
304:
299:
296:
289:
287:
285:
281:
280:
274:
272:
268:
267:
261:
257:
253:
252:
247:
239:
232:
230:
224:
222:
218:
208:
204:
201:
192:
187:
185:
183:
182:Academy Award
179:
178:
173:
168:
166:
162:
157:
155:
151:
147:
143:
138:
136:
131:
129:
124:
120:
116:
115:
109:
107:
103:
99:
95:
91:
90:improbability
87:
83:
79:
71:
69:
65:
63:
58:
53:
51:
50:logical error
47:
46:survival bias
43:
34:
30:
19:
18:Survivor bias
2781:
2774:
2767:
2739:
2556:Hazard ratio
2440:Cohort study
2131:In education
2098:
2082:Other biases
2068:Verification
2053:Survivorship
2052:
2003:Non-response
1976:Healthy user
1918:Substitution
1893:Self-serving
1689:Confirmation
1657:Availability
1605:Acquiescence
1528:. Retrieved
1508:
1498:15 September
1496:. Retrieved
1485:
1475:
1463:. Retrieved
1425:
1421:
1408:
1396:. Retrieved
1378:
1365:Falling Cats
1360:
1348:. Retrieved
1334:
1317:
1313:
1307:
1272:
1268:
1262:
1250:. Retrieved
1241:
1232:
1220:. Retrieved
1211:
1202:
1177:
1173:
1167:
1150:
1146:
1129:
1119:
1107:. Retrieved
1092:
1083:
1077:
1068:
1043:
1035:
1020:
1008:. Retrieved
999:
989:
977:. Retrieved
962:
952:15 September
950:. Retrieved
941:
931:
919:. Retrieved
904:
899:performance.
875:
869:
859:
847:. Retrieved
838:
829:
788:
784:
778:
745:
741:
735:
723:. Retrieved
717:. Elsevier.
714:
704:
667:
661:
640:
636:
624:. Retrieved
620:
607:
549:Lindy effect
535:
471:
465:
450:eHarmony.com
447:
423:
420:Business law
409:
399:
386:
379:
358:Abraham Wald
354:World War II
351:
329:
321:
312:
300:
293:
284:Nassim Taleb
278:
276:In his book
275:
264:
249:
244:
227:
211:
205:
196:
175:
169:
158:
152:, a type of
149:
139:
132:
112:
110:
75:
66:
54:
45:
41:
40:
29:
2750:Null result
2709:Replication
2604:Infectivity
2526:Association
2477:Case report
2467:Case series
2450:Prospective
2198:Publication
2151:Vietnam War
1998:Length time
1981:Information
1923:Time-saving
1783:Horn effect
1773:Halo effect
1721:Distinction
1630:Attribution
1625:Attentional
1465:12 December
670:(8): e124.
621:Skeptic.com
221:S&P 500
200:mutual fund
198:example, a
123:statistical
94:Zener cards
80:researcher
2799:Categories
2552:Odds ratio
2544:Risk ratio
2510:Prevalence
2496:Occurrence
2472:Case study
2161:South Asia
2136:Liking gap
1948:In animals
1913:Status quo
1828:Negativity
1731:Egocentric
1706:Congruence
1684:Commitment
1674:Blind spot
1662:Mean world
1652:Automation
849:26 October
599:References
142:scientists
128:psychology
2612:Morbidity
2600:Virulence
2502:Incidence
2229:Debiasing
2208:White hat
2203:Reporting
2116:Inductive
2033:Selection
1993:Lead time
1966:Estimator
1943:Zero-risk
1908:Spotlight
1888:Restraint
1878:Proximity
1863:Precision
1823:Narrative
1778:Hindsight
1763:Frequency
1743:Emotional
1716:Declinism
1647:Authority
1620:Anchoring
1610:Ambiguity
1422:Evolution
1000:Bloomberg
894:154097782
805:0003-4819
762:0003-4819
437:are kept
392:subject.
364:(SRG) at
106:telepaths
98:by chance
37:analyzed.
2825:Survival
2776:Glossary
2769:Category
2646:In vitro
2487:Measures
2306:Overview
2126:Inherent
2089:Academic
2063:Systemic
2048:Spectrum
2028:Sampling
2008:Observer
1971:Forecast
1883:Response
1843:Optimism
1838:Omission
1833:Normalcy
1803:In-group
1798:Implicit
1711:Cultural
1615:Affinity
1540:cite web
1521:Archived
1492:Archived
1456:Archived
1452:30257040
1398:13 March
1392:Archived
1368:Archived
1344:Archived
1297:Archived
1246:Archived
1216:Archived
1155:Archived
1109:11 April
1103:Archived
1010:11 March
1004:Archived
979:11 March
973:Archived
946:Archived
915:Archived
843:Archived
821:13724567
813:16954361
770:11352696
719:Archived
696:16060722
663:PLoS Med
480:See also
339:Military
260:dropouts
233:Business
188:Examples
2651:In vivo
2248:General
2246:Lists:
2181:Ukraine
2106:Funding
1868:Present
1853:Outcome
1758:Framing
1443:6282550
1350:13 June
1326:3692980
1289:2288257
1194:2287454
921:20 July
687:1182327
410:general
352:During
332:artists
290:History
215:(Where
48:is the
2253:Memory
2166:Sweden
2156:Norway
2023:Recall
1793:Impact
1669:Belief
1587:Biases
1530:5 July
1450:
1440:
1324:
1287:
1252:29 May
1222:29 May
1192:
1056:
942:Forbes
892:
819:
811:
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768:
760:
725:31 May
694:
684:
626:21 May
439:secret
402:clades
2590:Other
2141:Media
2111:FUTON
1524:(PDF)
1517:(PDF)
1459:(PDF)
1418:(PDF)
1285:JSTOR
1190:JSTOR
890:S2CID
817:S2CID
441:; and
2815:Bias
2429:vs.
2297:and
1546:link
1532:2019
1500:2017
1467:2018
1448:PMID
1400:2008
1352:2014
1322:PMID
1254:2020
1224:2020
1111:2017
1054:ISBN
1012:2017
981:2017
954:2017
923:2015
851:2020
809:PMID
801:ISSN
766:PMID
758:ISSN
727:2021
692:PMID
628:2018
466:but
376:Cats
266:Vice
76:The
2188:Net
2073:Wet
1438:PMC
1430:doi
1318:191
1277:doi
1182:doi
1050:101
880:doi
793:doi
789:145
750:doi
746:134
682:PMC
672:doi
472:not
248:in
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