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So vast improbability is practically an impossibility. Such evanescent shadows of probability cannot belong to actual life. They are unimaginably less than those least things which the law cares not for. ... The coincidence which has occurred here must have had its origin in an intention to produce
53:
According to Sylvia
Howland's will, half of her $ 2 million estate (equivalent to $ 39,809,000 in 2023) would go to various charities and entities, the rest would be in a trust for Hetty Robinson. Robinson challenged the will's validity by producing an earlier will that left the entire
123:, the expected distribution if each downstroke was an independent event. When the admittedly genuine signature on the first page of the contested will was compared with that on the second, all 30 downstrokes coincided, suggesting that the second signature was a tracing of the first.
54:
estate to her, and which included a clause invalidating any subsequent wills. The case was ultimately decided against
Robinson after the court ruled that the clause invalidating future wills and Sylvia's signature to it were
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Robinson produced an earlier will, leaving her the whole estate outright. To the will was attached a second and separate page, putatively seeking to invalidate any subsequent wills. Howland's
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The court ruled that
Robinson's testimony in support of Howland's signature was inadmissible as she was a party to the will, thus having a
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for the benefit of
Robinson, Howland's niece. The remaining principal was to be distributed to various beneficiaries on Robinson's death.
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testified that he had made pairwise comparisons of 42 examples of
Howland's signature, overlaying them and counting the number of
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that overlapped. Each signature featured 30 downstrokes and he concluded that, on average, 6 of the 30 overlapped, 1 in 5.
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119:, Charles' father, showed that the number of overlapping downstrokes between two signatures also closely followed the
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100:, Thomas Mandell, rejected Robinson's claim, insisting that the second page was a forgery, and Robinson sued.
361:. (Ninth chapter: "Math error number 9: choosing a wrong model. The case of Hetty Green: a battle of wills").
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Benjamin Peirce then took the stand and asserted that, given the independence of each downstroke, the
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it. It is utterly repugnant to sound reason to attribute this coincidence to any cause but design.
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The case is one of a series of attempts to introduce mathematical reasoning into the courts.
89:(equivalent to $ 39,809,000 in 2023) to various legatees, with the residue to be held in
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46:, who would later become the richest woman in America, contested the validity of the
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Sylvia Ann
Howland died in 1865, leaving roughly half her fortune of some 2 million
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326:
Meier, P. & Zabell, S. (1980). "Benjamin Peirce and the
Howland Will",
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that all 30 downstrokes should coincide in two genuine signatures was
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Math on trial: How numbers get used and abused in the courtroom
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191:. The statistical evidence was not called upon in judgment.
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The
Richest Woman in America: Hetty Green in the Gilded Age
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The
Richest Woman in America: Hetty Green in the Gilded Age
167:{\displaystyle \textstyle {\frac {1}{2.666\times 10^{21}}}}
174:. That is one in 2,666,000,000,000,000,000,000, in the
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258:. New York: Anchor Books. pp. 68, 81–88, 102.
312:The Metaphysical Club: A Story of Ideas in America
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221:. New York: Anchor Books. pp. 9–21, 37, 45.
244:20 F. Cas. 1027 (C.C.D. Mass. 1868) (No. 11,959)
328:Journal of the American Statistical Association
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178:of sextillions. He went on to observe:
42:court case in 1868 where businesswoman
50:of her grandaunt, Sylvia Ann Howland.
303:1027 (C.C.D. Mass. 1868) (No. 11,959)
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44:Henrietta "Hetty" Howland Robinson
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386:
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284:Evidence, Proof and Probability
409:1868 in United States case law
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337:, vol. 4, p. 625 (1870)
282:Eggleston, Richard (1983).
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200:is a more recent example.
32:Howland will forgery trial
333:"The Howland Will Case",
254:Wallach, Janet (2012).
217:Wallach, Janet (2012).
103:In the ensuing case of
330:, vol. 75, p. 497
185:
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109:Charles Sanders Peirce
353:, Basic Books, 2013.
180:
169:
121:binomial distribution
61:It is famous for the
277:General bibliography
242:Robinson v. Mandell,
189:conflict of interest
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27:1868 U.S. court case
419:Forensic statistics
335:American Law Review
297:Robinson v. Mandell
105:Robinson v. Mandell
36:Robinson v. Mandell
323:, pp. 163–176
176:order of magnitude
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18:Sylvia Ann Howland
359:978-0-465-03292-1
197:People v. Collins
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16:(Redirected from
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414:Document forgery
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128:probability
113:downstrokes
67:mathematics
403:Categories
307:Menand, L.
204:Citations
148:×
56:forgeries
309:(2002).
98:executor
63:forensic
38:) was a
367:Portals
301:F. Cas.
87:dollars
81:History
65:use of
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319:
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73:as an
299:, 20
145:2.666
91:trust
355:ISBN
343:and
317:ISBN
288:ISBN
260:ISBN
223:ISBN
48:will
40:U.S.
30:The
381:Law
69:by
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347:,
315:,
286:,
156:21
152:10
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141:1
34:(
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