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SciCast

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440: 1315: 27:(IARPA) as part of its ForeST (Forecasting in Science and Technology) program. SciCast is currently (January 2016) on hiatus, after losing its main IARPA funding. It was expected to re-open in the fall of 2015 with the support of a major Science & Technology sponsor, but this had not occurred by January 2016. 282:"SciCast - Predict Tomorrow, Today. The Center for Science, Technology, and Security Policy (CSTSP) is working with a research group at George Mason University on a project – SciCast - to develop an online crowd-sourcing tool that can help predict future innovations in science and technology" 578: 497: 307: 592: 737: 117: 573: 568: 285: 467: 849: 178: 86: 24: 35:
SciCast was an outgrowth of an earlier project called DAGGRE (Decomposition-Based Elicitation and Aggregation), also an IARPA project that implemented GMU economist
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The launch of SciCast was picked up by many blogs and websites of data analysis and technology trends. SciCast's crowdsourced search for the missing
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on January 3, 2014, and the official announcements were made on January 10, 2014. The launch received some news coverage in March 2014.
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in Virginia are also treated as city-like entities (or principal cities) even though they have not been legally incorporated as such.
335: 1262:. Virginia's incorporated cities are listed under their surrounding county. The incorporated cities bordering more than one county ( 81: 40: 1343: 1318: 553: 453: 1217: 1143: 646: 507: 407: 727: 722: 517: 1165: 1160: 891: 863: 512: 934: 597: 358: 69: 1255: 1073: 779: 1295: 1094: 1068: 1003: 660: 641: 1348: 1177: 1133: 1111: 918: 877: 870: 492: 91: 385: 1271: 1170: 1138: 1116: 1063: 1058: 651: 631: 1283: 1279: 1182: 1153: 1106: 957: 856: 635: 476: 151: 20: 1267: 1126: 977: 702: 199: 1243: 836: 707: 1275: 1263: 1099: 1008: 982: 911: 819: 747: 686: 1353: 967: 962: 258: 1287: 1148: 972: 799: 769: 228: 1259: 1121: 789: 1291: 1200: 1192: 1029: 1013: 987: 804: 742: 681: 548: 312: 281: 174: 122: 61: 439: 794: 1337: 1274:) are listed under the county they were part of before incorporation as a city. Some 814: 809: 39:'s idea of combinatorial prediction tech markets, and was a participant in the IARPA 254: 224: 47: 36: 148:"SciCast Crowdsources Forecasts on Science and Technology Events and Innovations" 784: 774: 903: 118:"SciCast Launch! Crowdsourced Forecasting Project from George Mason University" 843: 19:
is a collaborative platform for science and technology forecasting created by
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Michael V. Hayden Center for Intelligence, Policy, and International Security
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Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter School for Peace and Conflict Resolution
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Center for World Religions, Diplomacy and Conflict Resolution
408:"SciCast Crowdsourcing search for Malaysian Air Flight MH370" 386:"Robin Hanson – SciCast, Prediction Markets & Future Day" 569:
Institute of International Banking Law & Practice
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Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center
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American Association for the Advancement of Science
72:airliner attracted the attention of some analysts. 111: 109: 107: 308:"SciCast College Bowl Kicks off Today, April 29" 179:Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity 87:Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity 25:Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity 564:Roy Rosenzweig Center for History and New Media 359:"SciCast: Toward a better model for prediction" 175:"Forecasting Science & Technology (ForeST)" 46:The launch of SciCast itself was announced by 919: 461: 8: 1048: 947: 926: 912: 904: 522:College of Education and Human Development 468: 454: 446: 438: 142: 140: 528:College of Humanities and Social Sciences 202:. The Official SciCast Blog. June 8, 2015 606:National History Education Clearinghouse 219: 217: 334:Piatetsky, Gregory (January 16, 2014). 200:"So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish!" 103: 1238:Baltimore–Washington metropolitan area 616:Washington Research Library Consortium 1254:The District of Columbia itself, and 534:College of Visual and Performing Arts 503:Schar School of Policy and Government 406:Piatetsky, Gregory (March 15, 2014). 280:Roderick, Jennifer (March 30, 2014). 7: 586:Center for Energy Science and Policy 559:Krasnow Institute for Advanced Study 525:College of Health and Human Services 611:Mid Atlantic Terascale Partnership 589:Center for Security Policy Studies 116:Jury, Jessie (December 16, 2013). 23:with the help of a grant from the 14: 384:Lozada, John (February 6, 2014). 82:Aggregative Contingent Estimation 41:Aggregative Contingent Estimation 1314: 1313: 554:The Review of Austrian Economics 361:. Security Curve. Archived from 1218:Jefferson County, West Virginia 306:Jury, Jessie (April 29, 2014). 1256:Virginia's incorporated cities 518:Volgenau School of Engineering 1: 892:George Mason University Press 864:National Security Law Journal 513:School of Integrative Studies 1294:in Virginia, as well as the 935:Washington metropolitan area 598:Institute for Humane Studies 70:Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 58:SciCast has been covered in 583:National Security Institute 1370: 602:Center for Quantum Studies 154:Newsdesk. January 10, 2014 1309: 1252: 901: 878:Journal of Social History 871:Journal of Labor Research 493:Antonin Scalia Law School 92:The Good Judgment Project 1280:census-designated places 850:Civil Rights Law Journal 1344:George Mason University 1171:Fredericksburg, City of 857:George Mason Law Review 478:George Mason University 357:Ed (January 22, 2014). 152:George Mason University 21:George Mason University 1154:Manassas Park, City of 942:Principal cities (and 703:Atlantic 10 Conference 259:"Join The DAGGRE Team" 1244:Northeast megalopolis 1127:Falls Church, City of 708:George Mason Patriots 1276:unincorporated areas 1211:Other outlying areas 1193:District of Columbia 1023:District of Columbia 820:Richard Norton Smith 748:George Mason Stadium 687:George Mason Stadium 1296:County of Arlington 1100:Alexandria, City of 1045:county equivalents) 944:city-like entities) 738:2006 Final Four Run 365:on January 29, 2014 257:(August 31, 2011). 227:(January 3, 2014). 1260:county equivalents 800:Walter E. Williams 770:Gregory Washington 718:Women's basketball 531:College of Science 508:School of Business 1331: 1330: 1303: 1302: 1226: 1225: 1149:Manassas, City of 1038: 1037: 837:The Fourth Estate 790:James M. Buchanan 752:The Green Machine 261:. Overcoming Bias 235:. Overcoming Bias 1361: 1349:Science software 1323: 1317: 1316: 1201:Washington, D.C. 1122:Fairfax, City of 1049: 948: 928: 921: 914: 905: 713:Men's basketball 677:President's Park 479: 470: 463: 456: 447: 442: 437: 436: 434:Official website 419: 418: 416: 414: 403: 397: 396: 394: 392: 381: 375: 374: 372: 370: 354: 348: 347: 345: 343: 331: 325: 324: 322: 320: 303: 297: 296: 294: 292: 277: 271: 270: 268: 266: 251: 245: 244: 242: 240: 221: 212: 211: 209: 207: 196: 190: 189: 187: 185: 173:Matheny, Jason. 170: 164: 163: 161: 159: 144: 135: 134: 132: 130: 113: 1369: 1368: 1364: 1363: 1362: 1360: 1359: 1358: 1334: 1333: 1332: 1327: 1319: 1305: 1304: 1299: 1248: 1222: 1206: 1187: 1083: 1079:Prince George's 1044: 1034: 1018: 992: 943: 937: 932: 897: 824: 805:Vernon L. Smith 758: 755:Patriot Platoon 743:EagleBank Arena 691: 682:EagleBank Arena 665: 620: 549:Mercatus Center 537: 481: 477: 474: 432: 431: 428: 423: 422: 412: 410: 405: 404: 400: 390: 388: 383: 382: 378: 368: 366: 356: 355: 351: 341: 339: 333: 332: 328: 318: 316: 313:Chicago Tribune 305: 304: 300: 290: 288: 279: 278: 274: 264: 262: 253: 252: 248: 238: 236: 223: 222: 215: 205: 203: 198: 197: 193: 183: 181: 172: 171: 167: 157: 155: 146: 145: 138: 128: 126: 123:Chicago Tribune 115: 114: 105: 100: 78: 62:Chicago Tribune 56: 33: 12: 11: 5: 1367: 1365: 1357: 1356: 1351: 1346: 1336: 1335: 1329: 1328: 1326: 1325: 1310: 1307: 1306: 1301: 1300: 1272:Fredericksburg 1253: 1250: 1249: 1247: 1246: 1241: 1234: 1232: 1228: 1227: 1224: 1223: 1221: 1220: 1214: 1212: 1208: 1207: 1205: 1204: 1197: 1195: 1189: 1188: 1186: 1185: 1180: 1175: 1174: 1173: 1163: 1158: 1157: 1156: 1151: 1144:Prince William 1141: 1136: 1131: 1130: 1129: 1124: 1114: 1109: 1104: 1103: 1102: 1091: 1089: 1085: 1084: 1082: 1081: 1076: 1071: 1066: 1061: 1055: 1053: 1046: 1043:Counties (and 1040: 1039: 1036: 1035: 1033: 1032: 1026: 1024: 1020: 1019: 1017: 1016: 1011: 1006: 1000: 998: 994: 993: 991: 990: 985: 980: 975: 970: 965: 960: 954: 952: 945: 939: 938: 933: 931: 930: 923: 916: 908: 902: 899: 898: 896: 895: 888: 881: 874: 867: 860: 853: 846: 841: 832: 830: 826: 825: 823: 822: 817: 812: 807: 802: 797: 795:Louise Shelley 792: 787: 782: 777: 772: 766: 764: 760: 759: 757: 756: 753: 750: 745: 740: 735: 730: 725: 720: 715: 710: 705: 699: 697: 693: 692: 690: 689: 684: 679: 673: 671: 667: 666: 664: 663: 654: 649: 647:Prince William 644: 639: 628: 626: 622: 621: 619: 618: 613: 608: 603: 600: 595: 590: 587: 584: 581: 576: 571: 566: 561: 556: 551: 545: 543: 539: 538: 536: 535: 532: 529: 526: 523: 520: 515: 510: 505: 500: 495: 489: 487: 483: 482: 475: 473: 472: 465: 458: 450: 444: 443: 427: 426:External links 424: 421: 420: 398: 376: 349: 326: 298: 272: 246: 213: 191: 165: 136: 102: 101: 99: 96: 95: 94: 89: 84: 77: 74: 55: 52: 32: 29: 13: 10: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 1366: 1355: 1352: 1350: 1347: 1345: 1342: 1341: 1339: 1324: 1322: 1312: 1311: 1308: 1297: 1293: 1290:in Maryland, 1289: 1285: 1284:Silver Spring 1281: 1277: 1273: 1269: 1265: 1261: 1257: 1251: 1245: 1242: 1239: 1236: 1235: 1233: 1229: 1219: 1216: 1215: 1213: 1209: 1202: 1199: 1198: 1196: 1194: 1190: 1184: 1181: 1179: 1176: 1172: 1169: 1168: 1167: 1164: 1162: 1159: 1155: 1152: 1150: 1147: 1146: 1145: 1142: 1140: 1137: 1135: 1132: 1128: 1125: 1123: 1120: 1119: 1118: 1115: 1113: 1110: 1108: 1105: 1101: 1098: 1097: 1096: 1093: 1092: 1090: 1086: 1080: 1077: 1075: 1072: 1070: 1067: 1065: 1062: 1060: 1057: 1056: 1054: 1050: 1047: 1041: 1031: 1028: 1027: 1025: 1021: 1015: 1012: 1010: 1007: 1005: 1002: 1001: 999: 995: 989: 986: 984: 981: 979: 976: 974: 971: 969: 966: 964: 961: 959: 958:Silver Spring 956: 955: 953: 949: 946: 940: 936: 929: 924: 922: 917: 915: 910: 909: 906: 900: 894: 893: 889: 887: 886: 882: 880: 879: 875: 873: 872: 868: 866: 865: 861: 859: 858: 854: 852: 851: 847: 845: 842: 839: 838: 834: 833: 831: 827: 821: 818: 816: 815:Roger Wilkins 813: 811: 810:Jim Larranaga 808: 806: 803: 801: 798: 796: 793: 791: 788: 786: 783: 781: 780:Ángel Cabrera 778: 776: 773: 771: 768: 767: 765: 761: 754: 751: 749: 746: 744: 741: 739: 736: 734: 731: 729: 726: 724: 721: 719: 716: 714: 711: 709: 706: 704: 701: 700: 698: 694: 688: 685: 683: 680: 678: 675: 674: 672: 668: 662: 658: 655: 653: 650: 648: 645: 643: 640: 637: 633: 630: 629: 627: 623: 617: 614: 612: 609: 607: 604: 601: 599: 596: 594: 591: 588: 585: 582: 580: 577: 575: 572: 570: 567: 565: 562: 560: 557: 555: 552: 550: 547: 546: 544: 540: 533: 530: 527: 524: 521: 519: 516: 514: 511: 509: 506: 504: 501: 499: 496: 494: 491: 490: 488: 484: 480: 471: 466: 464: 459: 457: 452: 451: 448: 441: 435: 430: 429: 425: 409: 402: 399: 387: 380: 377: 364: 360: 353: 350: 337: 330: 327: 315: 314: 309: 302: 299: 287: 283: 276: 273: 260: 256: 255:Hanson, Robin 250: 247: 234: 232: 229:"Announcing: 226: 225:Hanson, Robin 220: 218: 214: 201: 195: 192: 180: 176: 169: 166: 153: 149: 143: 141: 137: 125: 124: 119: 112: 110: 108: 104: 97: 93: 90: 88: 85: 83: 80: 79: 75: 73: 71: 66: 64: 63: 53: 51: 49: 44: 42: 38: 30: 28: 26: 22: 18: 1320: 1268:Falls Church 1166:Spotsylvania 1161:Rappahannock 978:Gaithersburg 890: 883: 876: 869: 862: 855: 848: 835: 733:Men's Soccer 411:. 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Retrieved 121: 67: 65:repeatedly. 59: 57: 48:Robin Hanson 45: 43:tournament. 37:Robin Hanson 34: 16: 15: 840:(newspaper) 785:Alan Merten 775:Anne Holton 636:Main Campus 1354:Prediction 1338:Categories 1264:Alexandria 1074:Montgomery 1030:Washington 1009:Alexandria 983:Germantown 844:WGMU Radio 98:References 1095:Arlington 1069:Frederick 1004:Arlington 968:Rockville 963:Frederick 696:Athletics 670:Buildings 642:Arlington 54:Reception 1321:Category 1288:Bethesda 1231:See also 1178:Stafford 1134:Fauquier 1112:Culpeper 1088:Virginia 1052:Maryland 997:Virginia 973:Bethesda 951:Maryland 728:Softball 723:Baseball 625:Campuses 542:Research 206:July 12, 76:See also 1139:Loudoun 1117:Fairfax 1064:Charles 1059:Calvert 763:History 661:Incheon 652:Loudoun 632:Fairfax 486:Schools 231:SciCast 31:History 17:SciCast 1292:Reston 1258:, are 1203:itself 1183:Warren 1107:Clarke 1014:Reston 885:Phoebe 657:Songdo 413:May 6, 391:May 6, 369:May 6, 342:May 6, 319:May 6, 291:May 6, 265:May 6, 239:May 6, 184:May 6, 158:May 6, 129:May 6, 1282:like 1240:(CSA) 988:Bowie 829:Media 1286:and 1278:and 1270:and 415:2014 393:2014 371:2014 344:2014 321:2014 293:2014 267:2014 241:2014 208:2015 186:2014 160:2014 131:2014 60:The 1340:: 1266:, 310:. 284:. 216:^ 177:. 150:. 139:^ 120:. 106:^ 927:e 920:t 913:v 659:- 638:) 634:( 469:e 462:t 455:v 417:. 395:. 373:. 346:. 323:. 295:. 269:. 243:. 233:" 210:. 188:. 162:. 133:.

Index

George Mason University
Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity
Robin Hanson
Aggregative Contingent Estimation
Robin Hanson
Chicago Tribune
Malaysia Airlines Flight 370
Aggregative Contingent Estimation
Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity
The Good Judgment Project



"SciCast Launch! Crowdsourced Forecasting Project from George Mason University"
Chicago Tribune


"SciCast Crowdsources Forecasts on Science and Technology Events and Innovations"
George Mason University
"Forecasting Science & Technology (ForeST)"
Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity
"So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish!"


Hanson, Robin
"Announcing: SciCast"
Hanson, Robin
"Join The DAGGRE Team"
"SciCast - Predict Tomorrow, Today. The Center for Science, Technology, and Security Policy (CSTSP) is working with a research group at George Mason University on a project – SciCast - to develop an online crowd-sourcing tool that can help predict future innovations in science and technology"
American Association for the Advancement of Science

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