158:. The study employed several thousand people as volunteer forecasters. Using personality-trait tests, training methods and strategies the researchers at GJP were able to select forecasting participants with less cognitive bias than the average person; as the forecasting contest continued the researchers were able to further down select these individuals in groups of so-called
98:, and created an aggregation algorithm to combine the individual predictions of the forecasters. GJP won both seasons of the contest, and were 35% to 72% more accurate than any other research team. Starting with the summer of 2013, GJP were the only research team IARPA-ACE was still funding, and GJP participants had access to the
183:
of the Good
Judgment Project started to operate on the web in July 2015 under the name Good Judgment Inc. Their services include forecasts on questions of general interest, custom forecasts, and training in Good Judgment's forecasting techniques. Starting in September 2015, Good Judgment Inc has been
170:
A significant amount of research has been conducted based on the Good
Judgment Project by the people involved with it. The results show that harnessing a blend of statistics, psychology, training and various levels of interaction between individual forecasters, consistently produced the best forecast
93:
at IARPA (IARPA-ACE). The first contest began in
September 2011. GJP was one of many entrants in the IARPA-ACE tournament, which posed around 100 to 150 questions each year on geopolitical events. The GJP research team gathered a large number of talented amateurs (rather than geopolitical subject
276:, that divulges the main findings of the research conducted with the data from the GJP. Co-author Gardner had already published a book in 2010, that quoted previous research by Tetlock that seeded the GJP effort. A book review in the September 26, 2015, print edition of the
1116:"The Surprising Accuracy Of Crowdsourced Predictions About The Future. Do you know whether Turkey will get a new constitution? It turns out you do: A group of well-informed citizens can predict future events more often than any foreign policy expert or CIA analyst"
184:
running a public forecasting tournament at the Good
Judgment Open site. Like the Good Judgment Project, Good Judgment Open has questions about geopolitical and financial events, although it also has questions about US politics, entertainment, and sports.
667:
Mellers, Barbara; Ungar, Lyle; Baron, Jonathan; Ramos, Jaime; Gurcay, Burcu; Fincher, Katrina; Scott, Sydney E.; Moore, Don; Atanasov, Pavel; Swift, Samuel A.; Murray, Terry; Stone, Eric; Tetlock, Philip E. (2014-05-01).
1221:
1383:
Mellers, Barbara; Stone, Eric; Murray, Terry; Minster, Angela; Rohrbaugh, Nick; Bishop, Michael; Chen, Eva; Baker, Joshua; Hou, Yuan; Horowitz, Michael; Ungar, Lyle; Tetlock, Philip (2015-05-01).
832:
1527:
I think Philip
Tetlock's "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," ..., is the most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow."
475:
32:
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Atanasov, Pavel; Rescober, Phillip; Stone, Eric; Swift, Samuel A.; Servan-Schreiber, Emile; Tetlock, Philip; Ungar, Lyle; Mellers, Barbara (2016-04-22).
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81:. The top forecasters in GJP are "reportedly 30% better than intelligence officers with access to actual classified information."
69:
to commercial activities, recruiting forecasters and aggregating the predictions of the most historically accurate among them to
214:
aired a segment on The Good
Judgment Project by the title "So You Think You're Smarter Than a CIA Agent", on April 2, 2014. The
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26:) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events". It was co-created by
1088:
245:
51:
1626:
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38:
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840:
Ulfelder, Jay (March 27, 2014). Using the 'Wisdom of (Expert) Crowds' to
Forecast Mass Atrocities (Report).
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1222:"Experts see a Republican Senate and fast-track authority for Obama as keys to new trade agreements"
829:"The Good Judgment Project: A Large Scale Test of Different Methods of Combining Expert Predictions"
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1385:"Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions"
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article depicts it as: "The most important book on decision making since Daniel
Kahneman’s
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134:, and prediction-markets entrepreneur Emile Servan-Schreiber. The advisory board included
122:. The website lists a total of about 30 team members, including the co-leaders as well as
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published a story on the GJP on
January 29, 2015. An article on the GJP appeared on the
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matter experts), gave them basic tutorials on forecasting best practice and overcoming
906:"Meet the Elite Team of Superforecasters Who Have Turned Future-Gazing Into a Science"
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476:"Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)"
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has a section detailing the involvement of the GJP in the tournament run by IARPA.
74:
1287:"Feature story: Bob Sawyer of Woodside discovers his latent talent in forecasting"
1089:"Huge Experiment Finds Regular Folks Predict World Events Better Than CIA Agents"
879:
862:
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925:"How the Good Judgment Project's Superforecasters Use Data to Make Predictions"
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863:"Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters"
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693:
685:
1001:"International: Who's good at forecasts? How to sort the best from the rest"
670:"Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament"
669:
234:
published articles on the GJP respectively on
January 20, 21, and 29, 2015.
1465:
Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway
1416:
807:
701:
609:
503:"About Superforecasting | Unprecedented Accurate & Precise Forecasting"
792:"Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls"
270:
The project spawned a 2015 book by Tetlock and coauthored by Dan Gardner,
861:
Atanasov, P.; Witkowski, J.; Ungar, L.; Mellers, B.; Tetlock, P. (2020).
845:
1512:"Can You See the Future? Probably Better Than Professional Forecasters"
346:
162:. The last season of the GJP enlisted a total of 260 superforecasters.
89:
The Good Judgment Project began in July 2011 in collaboration with the
747:
226:
published an article that mentioned the GJP on January 8, 2015. The
263:
published online a short article summarizing the paper by Mellers,
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390:
528:"How can we prevent major conflicts like a Russia-Ukraine war?"
1360:"Who's Best at Predicting the Future? (and How to Get Better)"
227:
211:
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547:
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Ungar, Lyle; Mellers, Barbara; Satopää, Ville; Baron, Jon;
556:"Prediction and Good Judgment: Can ICEWS Inform Forecasts?"
1601:
948:
833:
Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence
608:. The Good Judgment Project. July 27, 2011. Archived from
368:
1336:
Wiser: Getting Beyond Groupthink to Make Groups Smarter
301:
How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking
254:
Wiser: Getting Beyond Groupthink to Make Groups Smarter
1306:
Dribben, Melissa; Inquirer Staff Writer (2015-02-04).
1172:"How US Agencies Are Using the Web to Pick Our Brains"
629:
627:
220:
published an article on the GJP on September 5, 2014.
1255:"Does anyone make accurate geopolitical predictions?"
308:. On September 30, 2015, NPR aired an episode of the
1440:
Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction
1253:
Mellers, Barbara; Michael C. Horowitz (2015-01-29).
867:
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
273:
Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction
635:"The perils of prediction: Adventures in punditry"
318:; guests on the show were Tetlock, IARPA Director
342:Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity
63:Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity
1438:Tetlock, Philip E.; Gardner, Dan (2015-09-29).
267:., that wraps up the main findings of the GJP.
91:Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program
582:"So You Think You're Smarter Than A CIA Agent"
662:
660:
658:
8:
251:, Philly.com, on February 4, 2015. The book
973:"Monetary policy: How likely is deflation?"
606:"The idea behind the Good Judgment Project"
446:. The Good Judgment Project. Archived from
393:. The Good Judgment Project. July 27, 2011
57:The project began as a participant in the
1308:"Fortune telling: Crowds surpass pundits"
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410:
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469:
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391:"Who's who in the Good Judgment Project"
100:Integrated Conflict Early Warning System
474:Horowitz, Michael (November 26, 2013).
357:
369:"Welcome to the Good Judgment Project"
363:
361:
1389:Perspectives on Psychological Science
554:Dickenson, Matt (November 12, 2013).
192:GJP has repeatedly been discussed in
7:
1197:"Could you be a 'super-forecaster'?"
575:
573:
1170:Hamilton, Keegan (8 January 2015).
923:Gossett, Stephen (August 6, 2020).
774:Sign Up for a Prediction Tournament
322:, and superforecaster Elaine Rich.
314:centering on the GJP and the book
110:The co-leaders of the GJP include
14:
1338:. Harvard Business Review Press.
337:Aggregative Contingent Estimation
59:Aggregative Contingent Estimation
1087:Bender, Jeremy (April 3, 2014).
415:Brooks, David (March 21, 2013).
724:"The first championship season"
280:discusses the main concepts. A
198:. GJP has also been covered in
904:Brody, Liz (January 1, 2022).
526:Matthews, Dylan (2022-02-16).
65:(IARPA). It then extended its
16:Crowd-sourced event prediction
1:
1564:McEnroe, Colin; Wolf, Chion.
1334:; Hastie, Reid (2014-12-23).
1220:Jensen, Nathan (2015-01-21).
1139:"How to see into the future"
827:; Ramos, Jaime; Swift, Sam.
171:for several years in a row.
1467:. McClelland & Stewart.
1463:Gardner, Dan (2010-10-12).
1195:Burton, Tara (2015-01-20).
1137:Harford, Tim (2014-09-05).
880:10.1016/j.obhdp.2020.02.001
750:. The Good Judgment Project
371:. The Good Judgment Project
1648:
1118:. Co.exist. April 21, 2014
1061:"More chatter than needed"
52:University of Pennsylvania
39:Expert Political Judgment
20:The Good Judgment Project
1566:"The Colin McEnroe Show"
1401:10.1177/1745691615577794
1029:"The experts' best bets"
686:10.1177/0956797614524255
50:, all professors at the
1545:Harvard Business Review
1516:The Wall Street Journal
558:. Predictive Heuristics
295:Harvard Business Review
289:Thinking, Fast and Slow
808:10.1287/mnsc.2015.2374
298:paired it to the book
71:forecast future events
42:), decision scientist
1570:National Public Radio
949:"Good Judgment® Open"
674:Psychological Science
248:Philadelphia Inquirer
61:(ACE) program of the
1541:"Question Certainty"
1059:(November 1, 2013).
981:. September 13, 2011
846:10.2139/ssrn.2418980
1617:Government research
1442:. New York: Crown.
1259:The Washington Post
1226:The Washington Post
1037:. November 10, 2021
1009:. November 18, 2013
643:. September 2, 2011
332:Wisdom of the crowd
283:Wall Street Journal
232:The Washington Post
207:The Washington Post
1602:Good Judgment Open
1479:"Unclouded vision"
825:Tetlock, Philip E.
796:Management Science
786:Multiple Sources:
311:Colin McEnroe Show
201:The New York Times
175:Good Judgment Inc.
148:Michael Mauboussin
144:J. Scott Armstrong
73:. Predictions are
1449:978-0-8041-3669-3
1345:978-1-4221-2299-0
1332:Sunstein, Cass R.
417:"Forecasting Fox"
28:Philip E. Tetlock
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210:, and Co.Exist.
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33:Superforecasting
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1485:. 2015-09-26.
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770:"Freakonomics"
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776:. 2011-08-04.
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