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2010 California contrail incident

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479: 245: 471:, stated that the flying object producing the vapor trail was not a missile because it was too slow, and described it as "obviously an airplane contrail." On Tuesday, Pike said that what the KCBS crew recorded was "clearly an airplane contrail. It's an optical illusion that looks like it's going up, whereas in reality it's going towards the camera. The tip of the contrail is moving far too slowly to be a rocket. When it's illuminated by the sunset, you can see hundreds of miles of it...all the way to the horizon." Light at the head of the contrail that was initially speculated to be an exhaust "flame" was later interpreted as sun reflecting from an 27: 321: 264:, California on December 31, 2009, which some observers mistook for a missile launch. The San Clemente "New Year's Eve Contrail" was a horizontal trail at about 32,000 feet, or six miles, in altitude, that appeared to be oriented vertically due to the ground-level perspective from which it was observed and photographed. There are also historic examples of observers mistaking aircraft contrails for other phenomena, especially when contrails were still uncommon, including incidents in 214: 418: 588:" and irresponsibly push unproven theses; it was also interpreted as a lesson in the importance of exploring alternative hypotheses. Federal and military authorities in the United States also faced criticism in the aftermath of the event, particularly for the "inconclusive" nature of the answers provided to the public, and a perceived delay in resolving the issue. 357:
his station on "Tuesday night and Wednesday morning had leaned toward the missile theory" to explain the origin of the plume. News anchors continued to cover the event and, by the end of Tuesday, it had attracted international press attention, being described as a "mystery missile" or "vapor trail reminiscent of a missile launch."
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reports...of unusual sightings from pilots who were flying in the area on Monday afternoon." Eventually, on November 10, about 30 hours after the contrail first gained press attention, a Pentagon spokesman stated “there is no evidence to suggest that this is anything else other than a condensation trail from an aircraft.”
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west of Los Angeles, California and somewhat north of Catalina Island. It was later characterized as a "large vertical column set against the bright orange sky at sunset" and was clearly visible from the Los Angeles area. Scott Diener, the news director at KCBS, stated that the experts interviewed by
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Contrails, short for "condensation trails," are linear cloud formations produced by aircraft exhaust or air pressure changes, usually at commercial cruising altitudes several miles above the ground. Contrails may last for only minutes, but can last for hours and expand to several miles across, coming
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Eventually, news outlets came to report that the "missile" was simply an airplane contrail or optical illusion, as various experts had argued. The public and news reaction to the event was characterized by CNN as the "mystery missile mania." Nonetheless, some experts continued to hold that the vapor
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released a statement on November 9 declaring that it could not identify the source of the vapor trail. Col. Lapan stated that officials were "still trying to find out what the contrail off the coast of southern California was caused by," but that currently, "all indications are that it was not a DoD
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Several experts argued that the plume was simply a jet contrail, yet others disagreed, and U.S. government sources did not immediately reach a public conclusion about the vapor trail or its source. Pentagon spokesman Colonel David Lapan said that any missile test in the area was "implausible" due to
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launches in the area for the prior day. On November 10, some 30 hours after the "mystery missile" first gained press attention, a Pentagon spokesman stated there "no evidence to suggest" the plume was anything but an aircraft contrail. Some experts, however, held that the vapor trail could not be
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spokesman Ian Gregor stated: "The FAA ran radar replays of a large area west of Los Angeles based on media reports of the possible missile launch at approximately 5 p.m. (PT) on Monday. The radar replays did not reveal any fast moving, unidentified targets in that area...The FAA did not receive
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magazine ranked the incident as number two on its "Top 10 Oddball News Stories" list for 2010, remarking how "within hours, the footage had been picked up by every major news network," and observing that "as quickly as the mystery missile arrived on the scene...it was set aside."
292:, has hosted a number of secret operations. The 2010 incident occurred not far from San Nicolas, leading some experts to speculate about a connection between the contrail and activity on the island. On Friday, November 5, 2010, several days prior to the contrail incident, 563:
satellite on November 8 that reportedly showed the "mystery" contrail visible as a "horizontal white streak." The NASA website itself also discussed the GOES 11 imagery in an article. Patrick Minnis, a contrail expert in the Science Directorate at the NASA
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While a number of experts concluded the 2010 "mystery missile" was simply a common aircraft contrail, some experts held that while an airplane was the most likely cause a missile launch could not be totally ruled out based on the existing evidence.
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reported on the briefing, describing how Rubin used "the November 2010 'mystery missile launch' seen from California" as an example of foreshortened perspective, to illustrate how observers can mistake the direction that a rocket is traveling.
205:. U.S. federal and military authorities were also criticized for giving a series of "inconclusive" answers about the event and allowing the issue, in the words of one commentator, to "fester for days" without a clear resolution. 459:
The website ContrailScience.com produced a widely circulated report that explained how an airplane contrail moving directly toward a viewer has the appearance of rising vertically. The website referenced the December 31, 2009
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mainly to Asia, that we can do that." Ellsworth further said of the vapor trail: "It's spectacular...It takes people's breath away," and described the projectile as "a big missile." Doug Richardson, editor of
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released a statement in response to the sighting, saying, "At this time, we can confirm that there is no threat to our nation and from all indications this was not a launch by a foreign military."
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referred to the incident in a July 2017 article, stating how in "November 2010, The Pentagon was left baffled by what was reported to be a 'mystery missile launch' off the coast of California."
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helicopter led to intense media coverage and speculation about a potential military missile launch, with many reporters and experts discussing the contrail and theorizing about its source.
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activity." The Pentagon determined that there was no "scheduled or inadvertent" missile launches off the coast of California on the night of November 8. Adm.
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A contrail from an airplane flying towards an observer can create the illusion of a vertically moving object, as happened with a contrail off the coast of
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stated the vapor trail may have been caused by a plane, and likened it to observers mistaking the New Year's Eve contrail for a missile.
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bomber flying at 35,000 feet caused many residents to call police stations to report a "burning plane," "meteors," and "flying saucers."
2288: 2160: 2072: 1990: 568:, said he first "assumed it was a missile" but after research concluded that an aircraft was the "most likely" source of the contrail. 2378: 1350: 386: 253: 1676: 1290: 362: 1449: 976: 2012: 1918: 1477: 244: 1950: 803: 1112: 502: 178: 122: 2153: 498: 430: 174: 829: 1629: 735: 698: 2325: 2320: 1690: 1394: 654: 155: 72: 2353: 747: 723: 548:, who stated that while he inclined to the jet explanation, he could not "rule out a missile launch." On November 16, 26: 1245: 768: 2252: 710: 626:, cited the incident in a September 2014 briefing on Israeli Air Defense held in Washington, D.C. and broadcast by 422: 407: 395: 108: 1790: 1757: 320: 2398: 2348: 609:, recalling the 2010 "'mystery missile'...spotted off the coast of Southern California by a TV news helicopter." 606: 447: 382: 293: 277: 1945: 1025: 598: 461: 261: 464:"New Year's Eve Contrail," a horizontal contrail which some observers believed was a vertical missile launch. 189:
While some uncertainty over the vapor trail's origin persisted, the incident came to be seen as an example of
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theses; it was also interpreted as a lesson in the importance of exploring alternative hypotheses that fit
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released a statement on November 9 that it could not identify the source of the vapor trail, but both the
2077: 664: 631: 118: 1973:"Incredible contrail made by Boeing 787 – what causes them, and are they part of a global conspiracy?" 2383: 2240: 2217: 1639: 1224: 876:"Out to Launch?: "Mystery Missile" off California Coast Was Probably Just an Airliner, Pentagon Says" 2388: 1977: 1862: 1825: 1714: 1671: 916: 880: 649: 611: 585: 452: 301: 194: 1428: 1207: 981: 536: 468: 285: 402:, you can tell from the efflux but they're not showing enough of the tape to show whether it's 2408: 2043: 1982: 1910: 1749: 1570: 1285: 1216: 1104: 986: 875: 843: 403: 341: 186:
identified as an aircraft contrail with total certainty, and others stated it was a missile.
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but, stressing it was only a theory, also remarked: "It could be a test firing of an
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news station recorded the vapor trail of what was described as a "missile" about 35
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article, several days after the event, the incident was cast as an example of how
1667:"Mystery vapor trail over California was left by plane, not missile, experts say" 686: 2235: 2200: 249: 238: 147: 68: 2126:"Mystery missile launch caught on camera off California coast" WMAR-2 ABC video 2207: 2195: 2180: 2176: 2135: 2130: 2125: 2120: 2115: 2110: 1876: 1740:"Video Catches Mystery 'Missile' Launch Near L.A. [Updated Once More]" 1450:"Pentagon: 'Mystery Missile' Contrail Was Probably Airplane - CBS Los Angeles" 507: 329: 325: 221: 151: 1986: 1914: 1753: 1574: 1220: 1108: 990: 847: 601:
also mentioned the incident in a 2012 story about test missile launches from
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plume could not be conclusively identified. In a November 14, 2010 article,
417: 1281:"Pentagon says no evidence vapor trail came from anything but an aircraft" 1255: 804:"Infamous Contrail (aka the 'Mystery Missile') Spotted in Satellite Image" 778: 769:"Infamous Contrail (aka the 'Mystery Missile') Spotted in Satellite Image" 1561:"It's not one of ours. Everybody denies knowledge of the mystery missile" 1454: 1250: 1056: 1021:"Mystery Missile: Launch of Unknown Missile Caught on Tape in California" 773: 644: 511: 472: 297: 135: 92: 2145: 1602: 1176: 560: 378: 345: 309: 159: 126: 39: 2281: 2051: 627: 515: 225: 134:
On the evening of Monday, November 8, 2010, an unusually conspicuous
1816:"Pentagon can't explain apparent mystery plume off California coast" 1246:"Pentagon: Mystery Contrail Spotted Off Calif. Coast Was No Missile" 489:
similar to UPS flight 902, which was also theorized to be the source
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that it "wasn't a Navy missile," yet declined to offer more detail.
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flight 808, which was theorized to be the source of the contrail
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stated it was not a foreign military launch. On November 9, the
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Aviation accidents and incidents in the United States in 2010
2136:"Professor Explains Mystery Plume" ABC video with Michio Kaku 1052:"RAW VIDEO: Mysterious Contrail Off Calif. - CBS Los Angeles" 288:, approximately 75 miles west of Los Angeles and the site of 544:, a former Pentagon science adviser and professor at the 31:
Reported image of the "mystery" contrail captured by the
1598:"Mystery vapor trail not likely from missile: Pentagon" 1172:"Mysterious missile lights up the sky over the Pacific" 975:
Stelter, Brian; Broad, William J. (November 14, 2010).
1478:"Mystery 'missile' likely a jet contrail, says expert" 1351:"Mystery 'missile' likely a jet contrail, says expert" 552:
published an article discussing an image taken by the
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also issued a statement that it had not approved any
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Martinez, Michael; Wian, Casey (November 10, 2010).
1783:"Los Angeles Missile Contrail Explained in Pictures" 1395:"A Problem of Perspective – New Year's Eve Contrail" 1279:
Cloud, David S.; Barboza, Tony (November 11, 2010).
2305: 2266: 2228: 2188: 977:"How Smoky Plume in Sky Drew the Eyes of the World" 713:, theorizing it could be an American missile launch 522:—emerged as a candidate for the contrail's source. 344:on Monday, November 8, 2010, a helicopter from the 308:satellite, but a sergeant from Vandenberg informed 114: 99: 88: 78: 55: 47: 2141:November 10, 2010 Wikinews article on the incident 2106:Wall Street Journal video of the "Mystery Missile" 1853:"It's a Bird, It's a Missile... It's an Airplane!" 1532:"Mystery Missile Shot Off The Coast of California" 2121:"Who fired the 'mystery missile?" Channel 4 video 1941:"Morning Missile Mystery Lights Up Western Skies" 797: 795: 268:, Texas on October 27, 1951; in several areas of 1135:"Mystery Missile Launches Off California Coast" 16:Aviation and aerial phenomenon-related incident 912:"Mystery 'missile' launch in US: the theories" 2161: 2111:"Missile Launched Off Calif. Coast" CBS video 830:"Mystery contrail leaves US military stumped" 8: 2131:"Mystery Missile" News 5 Cleveland ABC video 619:also mentioned the event in a 2017 article. 312:that there had been no subsequent launches. 19: 1691:"'Mystery missile' has conspiracies firing" 1630:"Pentagon stumped by mystery missile trail" 622:Former Director of Israel Missile Defense, 2168: 2154: 2146: 2116:"Mystery Missile, Not A Missile" CBS video 1309: 1307: 25: 18: 2369:November 2010 events in the United States 1530:Charafeddine, Nouzha (November 9, 2010). 2394:North American Aerospace Defense Command 1203:"California: Vapor Trail Stumps Experts" 869: 867: 865: 863: 435:North American Aerospace Defense Command 171:North American Aerospace Defense Command 2011:Radford, Benjamin (December 20, 2017). 1939:Sandell, Clayton (September 13, 2012). 1851:Finneran, Michael (November 16, 2010). 1388: 1386: 1384: 1382: 1380: 1378: 760: 675: 361:the close proximity of the sighting to 1846: 1844: 1842: 1555: 1553: 410:missile of the type used by U.S. Navy 406:." Richardson theorized it might be a 272:on April 15, 1950; and throughout the 1809: 1807: 1776: 1774: 1660: 1658: 1656: 1624: 1622: 1620: 1592: 1590: 1401:from the original on 12 November 2010 1363:from the original on 10 November 2010 1344: 1342: 1274: 1272: 1197: 1195: 1193: 1165: 1163: 1161: 970: 968: 966: 964: 962: 960: 958: 905: 903: 901: 899: 897: 546:Massachusetts Institute of Technology 165:Coverage continued for several days. 7: 2081:. September 12, 2014. Archived from 1738:Shachtman, Noah (November 9, 2010). 1091:"Mystery of the California contrail" 1015: 1013: 1011: 956: 954: 952: 950: 948: 946: 944: 942: 940: 938: 398:Missiles and Rockets, said: "It's a 1665:Pomfret, John (November 10, 2010). 1503:Peralta, Eyder (November 9, 2010). 1421:"Contrail Confusion is Nothing New" 1133:Bryner, Jeanna (November 9, 2010). 910:Bloxham, Andy (November 10, 2010). 530:—was also raised as a possibility. 158:. News footage of the event from a 2359:Santa Catalina Island (California) 1899:Gray, Madison (December 9, 2010). 1476:Mckee, Maggie (November 9, 2010). 1170:Lee, Marcella (November 8, 2010). 1068:. November 9, 2010. Archived from 1029:. November 9, 2010. Archived from 425:was also theorized to be the cause 387:intercontinental ballistic missile 14: 2414:Los Angeles International Airport 2313:2010 California contrail incident 1901:"The Mystery Missile that Wasn't" 1349:McKee, Maggie (9 November 2010). 389:from an underwater submarine, to 363:Los Angeles International Airport 103:Speculated to be a contrail from 20:2010 California contrail incident 1781:West, Mick (November 13, 2010). 1393:West, Mick (10 November 2010). 1327:from the original on 2006-09-28 709:Ellsworth was referring to the 497:, an unnamed official from the 381:that it did not appear to be a 123:Federal Aviation Administration 1315:"Aircraft Contrails Factsheet" 802:Space.com staff (2010-11-16). 528:McDonnell Douglas/Boeing MD-11 493:As reported on November 10 by 467:John E. Pike, the director of 431:United States Northern Command 1: 2404:Channel Islands of California 2364:Atmospheric optical phenomena 1971:Smith, Oliver (4 July 2017). 1427:. May 6, 2007. Archived from 412:Aegis guided-missile cruisers 233:to resemble naturally formed 42:satellite on November 8, 2010 1254:. 2010-11-10. Archived from 777:. 2010-11-17. Archived from 655:Channel Islands (California) 290:a U.S. military installation 276:on January 11, 1950, when a 197:" and irresponsibly pushing 375:Deputy Secretary of Defense 228:, England at sunset in 2012 2430: 2013:"UFO Sightings & News" 1878:CNN: Mystery missile mania 584:can be "captives of their 71:, California and north of 2379:2010 in American politics 2073:"A Matter Of Perspective" 607:White Sands Missile Range 448:Chief of Naval Operations 294:Vandenberg Air Force Base 193:being "captives of their 59:Airspace approximately 35 24: 746:Online record of flight 734:Online record of flight 722:Online record of flight 697:Online record of flight 423:RIM-161 Standard Missile 400:solid propellant missile 109:RIM-161 Standard Missile 1537:The Wall Street Journal 566:Langley Research Center 487:McDonnell Douglas MD-11 371:U.S. Ambassador to NATO 274:San Francisco Peninsula 711:United States military 490: 426: 333: 257: 229: 217:Contrail created by a 2229:Military designations 2085:on September 20, 2024 2078:Aviation Week Network 2044:"Israeli Air Defense" 1865:on November 17, 2010. 1569:. November 10, 2010. 1215:. November 10, 2010. 842:. November 10, 2010. 687:coverage of the event 665:Battle of Los Angeles 632:Aviation Week Network 499:U.S. Northern Command 481: 420: 323: 316:Incident and response 247: 216: 175:U.S. Northern Command 119:Department of Defense 2054:. September 12, 2014 1828:on February 18, 2024 1760:on February 18, 2024 1640:Agence France-Presse 1293:on February 21, 2024 1258:on February 18, 2024 1227:on February 18, 2024 1147:on February 18, 2024 1115:on February 18, 2024 1103:. November 9, 2010. 1072:on February 18, 2024 1033:on February 18, 2024 997:on February 18, 2024 924:on November 12, 2010 408:standard interceptor 1953:on February 5, 2024 1679:on August 27, 2021. 1672:The Washington Post 917:The Daily Telegraph 881:Scientific American 650:Twilight phenomenon 576:In the November 14 453:The Washington Post 302:Thales Alenia Space 154:in the vicinity of 21: 2354:2010 in California 1921:on October 3, 2023 1881:, 11 November 2010 1642:. November 9, 2010 1606:. November 9, 2010 1208:The New York Times 982:The New York Times 781:on August 12, 2022 542:Theodore A. Postol 537:The New York Times 491: 469:GlobalSecurity.org 427: 334: 286:San Nicolas Island 278:B-50 Superfortress 258: 248:Vapor trail of an 230: 84:"Mystery contrail" 2336: 2335: 1889:November 12, 2010 1286:Los Angeles Times 682:November 9, 2010 473:aircraft exterior 138:appeared about 35 132: 131: 107:flight 808 or an 95:-related incident 82:"Mystery missile" 2421: 2399:US Airways Group 2349:2010 in aviation 2267:Notable aircraft 2170: 2163: 2156: 2147: 2094: 2093: 2091: 2090: 2069: 2063: 2062: 2060: 2059: 2040: 2034: 2033: 2031: 2030: 2025:on July 21, 2024 2021:. Archived from 2008: 2002: 2001: 1999: 1998: 1993:on July 28, 2024 1989:. Archived from 1968: 1962: 1961: 1959: 1958: 1949:. Archived from 1936: 1930: 1929: 1927: 1926: 1917:. Archived from 1896: 1890: 1888: 1887: 1886: 1873: 1867: 1866: 1861:. Archived from 1848: 1837: 1836: 1834: 1833: 1824:. 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Index


NASA
NOAA
GOES 11
Los Angeles
Catalina Island
Aviation
U.S. Airways
RIM-161 Standard Missile
Department of Defense
Federal Aviation Administration
KCBS
contrail
Los Angeles
California
Catalina Island
KCBS
The Pentagon
North American Aerospace Defense Command
U.S. Northern Command
FAA
commercial space
news outlets
sources
unverified
available data

KLM
Boeing 777
London

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